952: Week 13 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reefon what's up everyone.

00:00:12
Speaker 2: It's JJ Zachary sin in this episode nine and fifty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. I'm not gonna lie the results from last week. They weren't necessarily the best overall results of the season. I've had bigger hits, but given what I was working with, I think Week twelve was the best sleeper show of the season.

00:00:35
Speaker 1: There were, of course, some misses.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: Drake May was pretty mid, Jerome Ford didn't see the targets that I thought he might see, Rodric Estimate's usage was completely unpredictable once again, and Jayleen McMillan was a dud too. But I think one of the best calls of the season came last week with Noah Gray. There was also zach Ertz, Luke Scoon Maker, Devon Vle had a good day, Nick Westbrook, a Keyne scored again, a Mere Abdullah dominated that Raiders backfield, Rashad Bateman scored a long one, Justice Hill scored a long one, and even Will Levis had.

00:01:07
Speaker 1: A usable week.

00:01:08
Speaker 2: I thought things were gonna go very poorly last week, but fortunately things were just fine. Let's keep that going into week thirteen. Now, before I get into Sleepers this week, I want to remind you one more time to check out Underdog this Thanksgiving. Right now in the lobby, you can check out the Turkey. It's a five dollars entry with two hundred thousand dollars in prizes. It's all centered around one of the best slates of the year, the Thanksgiving Slate. You can check that out and more by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or downloading the app. If you've never played there, make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round. That'll get you a nice deposit offer as well as my rest of season rankings. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Lateround. So I'm doing a lot of this before waivers run in order to get this episode out in a timely fashion. So the percent roster numbers were some of these players might be just a little bit off. Not that that's going to dramatically change the integrity of this show. I just want to be transparent. Now, as usual, we're gonna kick things off by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start with quarterbacks. The streamers this week are better than last week, or we should at least feel better.

00:02:19
Speaker 1: About them heading into their games.

00:02:21
Speaker 2: The first is the guy that I talked about in the fifty Transactions episode, and that's Russell Wilson. Russ gets a Bengals team that ranks in the top five and adjusted points allowed for quarterbacks, and the Steelers have an ok enough twenty two point implied team total. On paper, it looks like a fine matchup. I will say, though, I have some concern that the Steelers will just try to force the run in this game. Teams have been doing that against Cincinnati this year. The Bengals rank last in neutral script pass rate allowed, and we know the Steelers want to establish it. Regardless, Russ has had good yards per ten numbers in the majority of his starts this year, so if the Steelers let him loose a little bit, he should have a nice game. Even if they don't, I think he's gonna be okay. Trevor Lawrence could be back this week from injury, and if he is, I like him against Houston, or I like him enough. The Texas are the twelfth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed, and they face an above average pass rate in neutral game scripts. They're also coming off of games where over their last four weeks, Aaron Rodgers, Cooper Rush, and Will Levis each posted at least sixteen Fantasy points against them. I think there's way more risk than what you'll get with Russell Wilson with Trevor Lawrence, but I'm anticipating a lot of passing from Jacksonville in this one. I'm gonna go back to Drake May too. Last week was kind of forced because the streaming options were so limited, but this week he at least gets a decent matchup when he faces the Colts. New England's a lot a lot of pressure this year, but Indianapolis is pretty average at creating that pressure, so there's not a massive mismatch there. And on paper, the Colts have been a plus matchup for quarterbacks this season, and May continues to give us twenty five plus rushing yards per game, so he's not a bad option now. Moving on to running backs, if Alexander Madison is a mere white or out again, even in the toughest matchup that you can find on paper, I think a mir Abdullah can be started.

00:04:11
Speaker 1: I have him as a high end RB three this week.

00:04:13
Speaker 2: If he ends up getting the start, that's because his workload was insane last week. Like I said in the fifty Transaction show, he had an eighty percent route share. He saw the highest snap share by far of any Raiders running back this year.

00:04:27
Speaker 1: Now, like I said, the Chiefs are a very.

00:04:29
Speaker 2: Difficult matchup, but he did at least see a lot of work, which means he could pay off.

00:04:35
Speaker 1: Now, I don't know the status of JK.

00:04:36
Speaker 2: Dobbins at this time, but if he's out, you can obviously go to Gus Edwards and Camanie Videll works as a deeper play too.

00:04:44
Speaker 1: The Chargers get the Falcons.

00:04:45
Speaker 2: While Atlanta has been below average as a matchup for running backs this year, LA has a solid twenty four point implied team total, it's a game that could just be generally high scoring for Videll's sake. The Falcons have also been an above average team for running backs and adjusted target share allowed, and I think that's the kind of role that he might be able to play without JK.

00:05:05
Speaker 1: Dobbins.

00:05:06
Speaker 2: But Edwards would likely be the goal lineback in a scenario where Dobbins is out, and then if that negative game script does hit, which is always possible, Videlle could find the field. More So, I've got Edwards a good bit ahead of Yidell, but Videll's technically.

00:05:19
Speaker 1: A deep sleeper. Now this is more of a volatile pick.

00:05:23
Speaker 2: But Antonio Gibson's usage last week was kind of interesting. The Patriots were blown out, so it's not surprising that Gibson was used a little bit more than usual because Gibson's the negative game script back that New England sometimes deploys. With that being said, New England used the more in the early parts of that game when the game was close. Ramandre Stevenson saw snapshare that was about twenty percentage points lower than normal in the first quarter of that game. And in that first quarter, Gibson had four touches, Stevenson also had four, and then he had this additional target that was incomplete. Now, maybe it's nothing, but Gibson finished the day with a forty percent running back rush share that was by far his highest mark since Week six. There's a very real chance and this was just a one off thing, but I want to at least call him out if it wasn't, because New England Backs have a decent matchup this week against Indianapolis. Now wide receiver, I'm gonna look at Carolina. The Panthers get the Bucks, and the Buccaneers are a great defense to target through the air. They faced by far the highest neutral script pass rate this year, and they are a top ten opponent for wide receivers and adjustin fantasy points allowed. I think this could be a Xavier le Guet game. Tampa Bay has seen the fourth highest adjusted target share go to outside receivers this year, and Leaguet has run just a third of his routes from the slot this season. That number was even lower in Week twelve with Adam thielenback. Now, Theelan's probably fining this game too, but I think Leaguett is a better play. I just hope that he can get a slightly higher target share than usual. He's only been in a sixteen percent and eighteen percent share over his last two games.

00:06:57
Speaker 1: Now, Josh Downs is.

00:06:59
Speaker 2: Unlikely to play this, which means we're probably gonna see a trio of ad Ni Mitchell, Alec Peerce, and Michael Pittman at wide receiver for the Colts. When Downs was out earlier this year, Mitchell was the one who played that slot role. I would anticipate that being the case once again. And New England their opponent ranks tenth and adjusted slot target share allowed this season. They've also been a bottom five team and yards per route run allowed to the slot. So I'm throwing these Colts wide receivers in this year because of Alec Pierce, who I think might be fine, But technically the deep sleeper here is Adnai Mitchell, who's still out there in about ninety five percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He's in a low key great spot. I think Lad McConkey might go nuts against Atlanta this week, But Josh Palmer is an okay sleeper. He's seen rout chairs of eighty one percent and eighty four percent over his last two games. Those are significantly higher than the sixty five percent and sixty three percent shares that he saw the two weeks prior, and he hit a twenty two percent target chair in Week twelve that was a season high. Now he gets in Atlanta tea that's giving up the fourth most adjusted points to wide receivers this season. Now, I didn't think that Palmer looked great against Baltimore, so I don't think there's a smash play by any means, but he should at least have some opportunities. Look, Marquez Valdez Scantling has seen just fourteen percent target shares over his last two games for the Saints, but he's playing a big play role. He's had average depth of targets of thirty point seven and twenty three point five in those contests, it's according to PFF, which is hilarious and insane at the same time. And his route shares they've been increasing. They've gone up each week as a Saint, including an eighty seven percent route participation rate in week eleven, the last time we saw New Orleans.

00:08:42
Speaker 1: This week, the Saints get the rams.

00:08:44
Speaker 2: LA has allowed the tenth most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and they've allowed the eighth highest completion percentage on fifteen plus air yard throws.

00:08:53
Speaker 1: So maybe MVS could do it again.

00:08:56
Speaker 2: Now, speaking of big plays, let's go back to Nick Westbrook a kine. I mean, he can't score another touchdown this week, right right? Tennessee gets Washington. That's a team that's turned into a pretty average matchup on paper for wide receivers. Westbrook Akine, though, has now hit a twenty percent target chair in three of his last four games, and we know that big playability is there, so if you need some of that volatility in your lineup, you could look his direction. And then finally, there's Dantavian Wicks. The matchup this week against Miami is not special, but the last time we saw Wicks without one of the other three main wide receivers for green Bay, he finished the day with a twenty eight percent target chair. We haven't seen him run a route on at least half of green Bay's dropback since Week five, but I would imagine that changes this week. The Packers have a team total north of twenty five points at the moment, and this is a way to get a piece of that offense. Now, Hunter Henry is the only tight end that I have for you in this tier, but in games with Drake May under center this year, Hunter Henry has a twenty one percent target chair per game rate. He gets Indianapolis this week, and that's a third best matchup for tight ends by adjusted Fantasy points allowed, so he's in a great spot to produce. Moving on, let's take a look at players roster and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. So we're digging a little bit deeper here. I've got one quarterback for you in this year. It's Bryce Young. Like I said earlier, the Buccaneers are a team that sees a lot of passing volume against them. That's resulted in them being the second best matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. Tampa Bay is allowing over thirty five more passing yards to be thrown on them versus a quarterback season long average, which is one of the higher marks in football. Young is coming off probably his best game as a pro. He scored sixteen and a half Fantasy points in a tough spot, so I like him for a player in this tier. At running back, Jerry McNichols is the obvious go to here. Austin Eckler is almost definitely gonna miss this week with a concussion, and Brian Robinson he's banged up too. If they're both out, McNichols is looking at a decent amount of work, mostly because he's operated as their RB three all season long. And don't forget about Chris Rodriguez either. He should get some work if both of those guys are out too. Now that being said, they do get the Titans, and Tennessee was able to stop Joe Mixon last weekainst the Texans. Tennessee's actually not been a very good matchup for running backs this season. Rang has a seventh worst matchup for them by justin fantasy points allowed Washington, though they do have a twenty five point imply team total. They could see a decent game script if things go the way projections think, and that'll help McNichols out if.

00:11:30
Speaker 1: You want a super deep play. What about Chris Brooks out of Green Bay?

00:11:34
Speaker 2: Gamescript obviously helps something like this, but he did see a thirty six percent snapshare in Week twelve, his highest of the season, and one thing to keep an eye on is the fact that he saw a fifty percent route share in that game. That was higher than Josh Jacobs, who's at thirty one percent. Jacobs is coming off a game where he carried the ball twenty six times. They have a short week because they're playing on Thursday night, and Brooks will face a Dolphins team that it's been worse against the run than the pass. They've allowed the eighth most adjusted points to running backs this year, and it's a fun little revenge game for him.

00:12:08
Speaker 1: It's a deep play, but.

00:12:10
Speaker 2: There are some outs for him. Noah Brown's kind of on the fringe from a percent roster perspective, so I just threw him in this bucket. This week, Washington gets a below average matchup against Tennessee, but like I said, the Commanders have a healthy imply team total. More importantly, Brown has seen a twenty four percent target chair per game rate over his last four games. That a loans enough for him to get a call out on the show. I'm going back to Devon Veley this week too. He's seeing good target shairs in this Denver offense. He's had fifteen percent, sixteen percent, and twenty three percent target shaars over his last three Now Veyle has been manning the slot.

00:12:45
Speaker 1: For the Broncos.

00:12:47
Speaker 2: He's run sixty percent of his routes from that area of the field during this three game timeframe. And Denver faces Cleveland on Monday night. That's a team that's given up the second highest yards per route run rate to slot wideouts this season. They're also top half in the league and adjusted target share allowed to the slot. So vele should have a role once again. And then at tight end, I have three players for you. The first is Noah Gray. I talked about Gray in the fifteen Transactions episode, and like I said there, he's been running more routes for the Chiefs. Over his last five games, he's had a fifty eight percent route chair before that point in time, that number was forty percent. Now he gets a Vegas team that's allowed the second most adjusted points of tight ends this season, so Gray works as a deep sleeper.

00:13:30
Speaker 1: Theo Johnson's another one.

00:13:31
Speaker 2: The matchup's not anything special this week against the Cowboys, but over his last three he's seen target sharps of twenty three percent, nineteen percent, and twenty percent. He should at least get some work, which isn't something that you can say about most players in this tier. And then lastly, we're gonna go even deeper than those two plays, and we're gonna go with Tommy Tremble. With Atavian Sanders suffering a neck injury, Tremble's more than likely gonna be the clear cut tight end one for the Panthers this weekend. And as I've been saying, teams again, Tampa Bay, they tend to throw the ball a lot, and if that's gonna happen in a negative game, script Tremble has a chance to see a large number of targets. There's a lack of obvious weapons in that Carolina offense, so I think he's right there with THEO Johnson this week. Moving on to defense, is kind of a crappy week for streaming defenses. Dallas was my fifteen transactions defense, but they're now rostered in fifty six percent of Yahoo leagues. But there's two more that I think might be able to work. One of them is the Seahawks against the Jets, and then New England's a team that gives up a lot of quarterback pressures, so Indianapolis is also kind of a hail Mary option. But like I said, it's kind of a tough week for these streaming defenses now, just given what's available right now, I don't have any underdog picks for you this week, but hopefully you can use some of this information to help with that when more options become available. That's it for today's show, though Thanks Tolvy for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. You can find me on Blue Sky as well, also at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Like I've said previously, this is the last episode of the week, so I hope all of you enjoy your Thanksgiving and thank you so much for your support this year and always. It means the world. Let's crush Week thirteen. I'll catch you next week.