10 Trends for Week 5

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab podcast with your host JJ Zachersa Jay Jake Zacher Reason. What's up everyone. It's JJ zach Reeson, the editor in chief at Fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and ninety of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I know this is the shortest show of the week each week, but I don't have a ton to say at the top of the episode, and I don't want to waste your time. And that's the whole point of the Late Round podcast, right to not waste your time. So before digging into this week's ten trends, I want to let you guys know about FanDuel's Gridiron Pick Them contest. Each week, you can go to fandle and pick who you think is going to win each matchup. If you pick them all right, you get a share of that week's jackpot. For more info in the Gridiron Pick Them, visit fandel dot com or download the app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Trend one is that there have been six wide receivers who have hit a twenty percent target chair in four games this year. Those players include DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Alan Robinson, Odell Beckham, Kenny Galladay, and Cooper Cup. Probably not a ton of surprises on that list. However, one player who could be on that list is Jamison Crowder. He's seen twenty percent or more of New York's targets through his first three games of the season, but the Jets had a buy in Week four, so he doesn't really qualify for this stat. Now, I'm of the belief that we shouldn't expect the world of the Jets offense this year, especially right when Sam Darnold gets back, but Crowder is an interesting by low in PPR formats given how this offense looks, given how they've used him. Though, we should be aware that Chris Herndon returning may hurt Crowder's target share a bit, but overall, basically, if you can get Crowder for a bench player, I'm for it. The Patriots still haven't run an offensive play while trailing, and Sony Michelle is the RB forty six through the first four games of the season for the millionth time. Yes, we should be worried about Sony Michelle. It's not that he won't score touchdowns, and I actually like him this weekend, but he's not seeing any volume through the air, and the Patriots are seeing the ideal game script for Sony Michelle. But even still, he's not performing now. It's probably tough to sell him right now. So you just got to cross your fingers and hope that is receiving usage changes or that New England takes a step forward offensively, and his touchdown upside is just undeniable. He's just not the type of player that I typically like rostering in fantasy football, though I hate running backs who don't see receiving work. Tampa Bay has run the ball more than they've passed it in neutral game scripts this year or when games are within a six point margin. The only other teams with the past to rush ratio below one in neutral game scripts are Baltimore and San Francisco. Now, I just flat out thought that this was interesting. But I will say Bruce arians for whatever reason, he was thought to be a pass friendly head coach by a lot of people entering this season, but that's not really true. During his time in Arizona, he ranked fourteenth or lower and pass to rush attempt ratio, and three of five seasons he was twelve or lower in neutral script ratio and four of them. Arians just likes to throw the ball vertically, and we've seen that this season where Jamis Winston has one of the highest deep ball rates in the league. And by the way, as someone who didn't like Ronald Jones coming out of school or as someone who thought that he was overrated, he looked great in Week four. He looked amazing in Week four. He's really flashed at times this year, and I'd say that he deserves more work in that offense. Trend four is that in his first two games this year, DJ Moore had a twenty seven percent and twenty eight point six percent target share. Since Kyle Allen took over in Week three, he's seen that share drop to eight percent two weeks ago and fifteen point two percent this past week. Given these splits, DJ Moore is kind of tough to trust. It sucks because he was looking like someone who could be a value to start the year. But this is a trend that we've got to keep an eye on moving forward. No wide receiver has scored more touchdowns than he should have based on his yardage total this season than t Y Hilton. His one hundred and ninety five receiving yards based on the last five years of data, should have yielded about two point eight fewer touchdowns than what he currently has, which is four touchdowns. Now, this ties to Jacoby Brissette's touchdown rate, which is seven point two percent. That's the third highest rate in the league. Only Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson have higher touchdown rates, and those regress. That's a statistic that absolutely regresses. Considering Brissett is in some sort of outlier quarterback, we should expect the same for him, and that's going to impact t Y Hilton. Maybe not this week against Kansas City, though. There are three teams so far this season with eight or more passing touchdowns and one or fewer rushing touchdowns. They include Jacksonville who has zero rushing touchdowns, Detroit who has a nine to one ratio, in Atlanta, who has an eight to one ratio. This is really a telling sign for touchdown regression, and more specifically touchdown regression for those teams running backs. Now, I'll talk about Freeman and four Nette more on today's show, but those two running backs and carry on. Johnson should find the end zone more moving forward, given how their teams have scored this year, Trend seven is that four wide receivers have scored sixty percent or more of their teams receiving touchdowns to start the year. Those wideouts are Taylor Gabriel, Tyro, Williams, Adam Thielen, and John Ross. And I would argue that all four of those wideouts are also due for some touchdown regression. There are seven running backs this season who have seen at least three quarters of their team's running back rushes while hitting a twelve percent target share. The majority of them are pretty predictable Le'Veon Bell, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, and Nick Chubb. Those are six of them. The seventh, though, is Devonte Freeman. I'm still a believer that Freeman is a decent fantasy asset. I just talked about how the Falcons have a skewed touchdown scoring ratio this season and Freeman seeing a lot of work on the ground and now through the air too. I would consider him a by candidate right now, even though I don't think that he has the same jump to his game that he did a couple of years ago. So since I called out Courtland Sutton last week as someone who was really underperforming in the touchdown column, then he went out and scored twice, I figured that I dropped this trend. In the top ten players who were underperforming in the touchdown column right now based on their yardage total, and this is counting from ten to one, but it's Tyler Boyd, Devonte Freeman, Royce Freeman, Travis Kelcey, Robert Woods, zach Ertz, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Adams, Darren Waller, and Leonard Fournette. You could consider all of those players by candidates. Fournette should have three point three four touchdowns this year, but he's yet to find the end zone. Darren Waller is second on that list. He should have two point four to three touchdowns, but he also hasn't found the end zone. The last trend today is that Teddy Bridgewater has thrown it fifteen or more yards down the field on just six point nine percent nice of his pass attempts this year. That's by far the lowest of any relevant quarterback. Now, this is partially why you can only start Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas in that Saints offense each week, and on the flip side, Patrick Mahomes leads the league at a thirty point eight percent rate. So to put this another way, Mahomes is throwing a deep four and a half times as often as Teddy Bridgewater is. Talk about two completely different offenses. That's going to do it for today's show, though, another short one, But thanks to everyone for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and as always, if you can do me a favor if you listen to this show through Apple Podcasts, leave the show a rating and review, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with a new matchup show.