Late-Round Perspectives: Jeff Bell

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Jeff Bella is a fantasy analyst for football guys who co host their daily fantasy and dynasty shows. He's done work with fantasy pros as well. He's a girl dad, a Debbie nerd, and he's also a CPA, so hit him up for any of your accounting needs. These are his late round perspectives. Every time I have someone on perspectives, I think, like, how many shows I've done with them?

00:00:33
Speaker 2: Like, like, what our history? Have we done a show together? You and I?

00:00:36
Speaker 3: We have not. I don't think that we have. I think this was be the very first one.

00:00:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: But here's the crazy thing. We've done a panel together, Yes, we've done. We did the panel at the at the x BO and we get to see each other now yearly at the x Y.

00:00:50
Speaker 2: Are you gonna be there again this year?

00:00:51
Speaker 3: I will be. It's about two hour drive for me, so I'm.

00:00:54
Speaker 1: Gonna say yeah, hard for me not to go. It's fairly close for you, which is nice.

00:00:59
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:00:59
Speaker 1: I mean, look, anyone, I say this all the time, but anyone who is thinking about going to the Fantasy Football Expo would you would you agree with me?

00:01:07
Speaker 2: I would assume two thumbs up. Definitely do it.

00:01:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I mean it's a great opportunity. I remember my first couple of times going. It's if you're in the content world, it's one of those things that you you meet people and you realize that they're actually your friends. It's not just random like nobody's on the internet. You're you know, you have real relationships there, and solidifying that in person's great. And then if you are a fan, it's a great opportunity to come out and meet people. Everybody's very open and accepting and loves to talk to everybody else. And I've met with several people that came as fans the first year and then became content creators after that.

00:01:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is really cool.

00:01:45
Speaker 1: And I think that like even if you're just strictly a fan, you will be able to guess and I'm not even saying a fan of like an analyst or I just mean like a fantasy football fan, you know, just someone who's like really into this stuff and nerds out about it, like there is stuff for you you can like literally every conversation when you go from one conversation to the next, like people are generally talking about fantasy football for that upcoming season and such which is a whole lot of fun. Are you currently in rookie draft? Hell, like I am right now.

00:02:15
Speaker 3: Very much so. I do a handful of safe leagues, so those kicked off this year, and then just kind of in general, it seems to be the week that everybody maybe let's the dust set of last week with the NFL Draft happening and then everything kicks off. It seemed like on Monday, everything just threw it up.

00:02:29
Speaker 1: Like all at once, immediately I'm on the clock, Like all the time, I'm on the verge of like not realizing I'm on the clock and someone in my league.

00:02:37
Speaker 2: Is yelling at me all that kind of stuff.

00:02:38
Speaker 1: Well, Jeff, look, I'm really excited to have this conversation today. We got some fun things that we're going to talk about. But before we get into those things, like I usually do this with every perspective's guest, but talk to me not just about your background. I mean I want you to talk about your background, but also sort of the journey for you in the fantasy football space, because you've been writing content, You've been doing content for a pretty long time now, and I want to give that context in that background for folks who you know are maybe new to some of your work.

00:03:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really crazy how quickly it feels like you become a veteran in doing this, because it just definitely doesn't feel like I've been doing it that long. Once, once I've done four seasons. Now, once you've done four seasons, it feels like you're fully in it. But really, I mean, I've played fantasy football since I remember my very first experience was a Sports Illustrated. They had this salary cap game where like you could lock in your lineup. We played. I played with my friends and it was Kurt Warner's like rookie year, and I got him week two for the bottom bargain basement price, and so I locked him in as like the cheapest quarterback on the slate and year in his first season, Week two wrote him all year long. And so basically you kind of had like a fifty thousand dollars budget similar to DFS, but you lock it in as like that price there, and you would be able to get gains on your players when you get rid of them. It's just a fun game and that tells you. I mean, late nineties ninety nine or so. Ninety eight was his first first year and so that and playing since then, and really I wanted to get involved in the content creation world, and I always kind of thought that you just needed to be in an elevator with Matthew Berry like and just to spur of the moment in order to become a content creator, and never really pursued too much. In twenty fifteen, when DFS started to explode, I made friends with through an aquaint in somebody that was at Rodo Grinders, and I started to talk with him and he kind of told me, you know, if you're going to do daily fantasy content, sure there's that's going on right now, but if you want to do other stuff, it's just oversaturated. Don't even bother. And so I had that in my mind for a couple of years there, and then the pandemic came and I kind of fell down the Twitter rabbit hole then and started to get involved there. And that's when you just discover layers upon layers and you start to find these things. And so it was really January twenty twenty one, really December twenty twenty one that I started. December twenty twenty that I started writing articles. I started out with a site going for two. Jeff Lambert's great there. He's great at getting people started, and then I started with Fantasy Intervention shortly after that with Chase at Vernon and then meeting Dave Klugie, meeting Stuff Smalls who became my best friends in this space, and doing that, Jeff Lambert was able to get me connected with Fantasy Pros. I volunteered to do debbie content. He was like, I'd love to have Debbie content, and then he had a connection with Fantasy Pros and they were like, hey, we went Debbie content. And so it was not even like two or three months of doing content that I suddenly was at Fantasy Pros basically leading their Debbie department. And so I did that kind of through that off season, spun up rankings those types of things for them for Debbie content, and started to do behind the scenes things for them, editing those types of things and learning how to do that process and that kind of by the end of my first regular season in twenty twenty one, they kind of gave me a green light to go ahead and write what I wanted to write and their site things like that, and I had made connection with Joe Bryant through Dave, but also at the Expo in the summer, and I had done kind of a guest spot for Football Guys in the summer of twenty twenty one. I wrote a couple of articles there and Joe and I talked to the Expo and I've been a Football Guys subscriber fan for since I can remember. And then after the season ended, almost immediately right after the season ended in January, Joe picked me up to go to foot with Football Guys. So I've been there since twenty twenty two.

00:06:30
Speaker 2: Man.

00:06:31
Speaker 1: First off, for anyone who has not interacted with Joe Bryant, who is the co founder and leader over at Football Guys, easily easily easily the nicest human being that you will like to me in the fantasy football space, there are two people that really are sort of like guiding lights in my opinion, and it's Joe and Bob Harris. Like those two guys, they're just genuine human beings. They genuinely care, They're just great people. And you know, anyone who is sort of working alongside them, and.

00:07:04
Speaker 2: Now now Bob's with Football Guys, which is awesome, but you.

00:07:07
Speaker 1: Know, it's just it's cool to h That's another reason why the expos so cool is because you can go to the to that event and meet someone like Joe and fall into this opportunity that you fell into and be able to work alongside him, which is which is really great. Was there like something burning inside of you to do content in the first place. Was it something that like, you know, you have your day job and you're like, I need some sort of like creative outlet or some sort of out to cause I'm sure a lot of people are in the same situation that you're kind of in.

00:07:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, there absolutely was. And I was the type of kid I wanted to be a general manager when I was a kid, and I would do with my baseball cards, like all day long. I would make fake teams and trade the stats and everything, and so I do that for all the three major sports Baseball, basketball, and football. When I was a kid, it was tech We had Techmo Super Bowl, and then like kind of Madden started to step early days of like SNS Madden, and but like you didn't really have like and like you do now or you could actually build franchises. But once that kind of hit the scene, I was doing that all the time. But I really wanted to go into sports writing was what I really wanted to do. I was the type of kid basically. I got to the point by like third or fourth grade, when the Sports Illustrated would arrive at the school library every week, they would set it aside and Jeff would get it like the first check out Marla and I would read it cover to cover. Rick Riley at the last page I remember reading I vividly. I was the type of kid that I always had. And there was a I think it was fifth grade I had this football encyclopedia that I had gotten and I kind of had it under my desk like throughout the day, just like kind of reading this massive stat encyclopedia for like the nineteen ninety three season. So I've always wanted to be a writer. Once I got to through high school, I was in all the writing things that I could be in. But when I got to college, I practicaled mind kind of took over in terms of getting a degree. I'm a CPA, so very very practical in that regard because it was just seemed pretty daunting to go into sports writing at that time. But I mean that time was when Bill Simmons was kind of coming on the scene, and that's somebody that I've really looked up to. But it's always been a major passion of mine to do writing, and so getting to this opportunity and be able to do that was, I mean, eye opening, life changing. It's been amazing.

00:09:24
Speaker 1: So you being a CPA, would you describe your approach to fantasy more numerical and analytics based or are you more you know? Again, I always sort of categorize it as like you're either analytics or your film based, But how would you just describe how you are as an analyst?

00:09:42
Speaker 3: I would say everything is how I would look at it, and I think that it's film based for sure, especially when it comes to rookie valuations. It's one that I grew up in a very small town in Ohio basically Friday night lights and so like football has been a part of my life since I can remember, and watching college football reseatsurday, watching NFL every Sunday. So it's one of those that I think that I have a pretty good ability of you can tell the way guys move when you watch them if this is an NFL player, this is not an NFL player. Like those types of things when you're watching the film when it comes to prospects, so I'll be very film based when it comes to prospects. But when it comes to fantasy for the NFL season, I do projections, and that's where a lot of my rankings and valuations and those different things get driven off of those projections. Because I like to through both processes, I try to not see what the consensus is before I kind of start to go through and kind of put my ranks out and figure out via projections and then maybe see where consensus lies and maybe start to see the values there. Or when it comes to rookie valuation, I build the database up basically from the ground that we use for the Football Guy's Rookie Guide, just from and it's less really watching the guys through the season because college football has turned into my outlet where I can just watch it and enjoy it and be a fan not watching it because I need to see this wide receiver from Alabama and like that type of thing. I just want to watch Alabama play Georgia, and so I really hit it hard once the NFL season ends and step into rookie season, and so that's where I try pretty hard not to see where consensus lies on those prospects until I really kind of have my first cut at least and start to build out that direction. So I'm saying I'm both, but really, when it comes into it, even there's certainly a level of feel narrative. You know, Sigmund is one of my Sigmund Blooms one of my favorite people as well, and so the mayor of narrative Street, I'll buy into that a little bit too, just kind of reaching all different directions that I can.

00:11:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should have also mentioned Bloom as another guy who you know, obviously part of football guys, but you know, as another person who's just unbelievably kind and gracious in the fantasy space, who's you know, been around for it, and you know he is one of those people who is just very very open and accepting of all. So should have shouted him out as well. Speaking of your your rookie evaluations and this being rookie draft season, before we dig into sort of the individual players, I definitely want to want to dive deep and get your take on some of these guys. What have been your high level thoughts so far in rookie drafts this year, Like from a game theory perspective, you have any game theory tips, are there, like particular tear drops that you think are noteworthy, Like what are you just seeing and feeling as you're drafting in these rookie drafts this year?

00:12:35
Speaker 3: I think right now, I mean there's kind of the we always get it every year where there's like the one oh seven ish tear drop that you see of the top guys, and then there's the next tier drop that's about two of three or so where that one kind of hits, and then there's that end of the second tier drop where you kind of got these day two wide receivers that you like their landing spots or those types of things, and then everybody else after that. And so I think it's in that regard. I don't think it's all that different than what we see a lot of years. Maybe the top tier isn't quite where it has been in some past years. I mean, there was the Jamar Chase going like one oh six year, and we all knew that Jamar Chase was probably pretty good, and so like that year stands out, or even the the you know last year with the Caleb Williams year, everybody's excited for Caleb Caleb Williams and those rookies there, so just kind of some of those years stand out maybe to separate themselves. But I think we've gotten there of talking ourselves into the blue chip players this year at least, but I think you're seeing the standard tiers. I think one of the things that I think is interesting is two guys, Tyler Warren and Matthew Golden. Seems to be that everybody seems to be out on those guys, and those seem to be the guys that you can get at the two o two in some drafts where you're kind of like, hey, I understand the situation in Indianapolis might not be the best, but this guy was a consensus thought to be top ten pick, went fourteenth in the draft, and I can get him at the two two in a tiny premium league, Like I'm gonna do that.

00:14:00
Speaker 2: So you mentioned Matthew Golden as well.

00:14:02
Speaker 1: You sent a tweet I think last week where you said that you are going to have a ton of Matthew Golden this year, and you obviously just mentioned him as someone who seems like a value. What are you seeing in Golden? Did you like him pre draft as a prospect or is this more driven by landing spot or is it driven by because I think that there's become like sort of this reverse psychology almost where the fantasy football community almost now overstates poor production profiles like like takes it almost too far without fact. And this is why I love the Zapp model because it at least grounds me, Like, yes, there are red flags to Golden's analytical profile, but there's also other inputs that are going into this model that can at least tell me, Okay, he's not like someone I need to avoid at all costs, you know, because there is you know, he's a first round pick, et cetera, et cetera.

00:14:47
Speaker 2: But what is it that you're seeing in Golden?

00:14:49
Speaker 1: I'm assuming if you're getting a lot of them, you liked him at least a little bit pre draft too.

00:14:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I did like him. I think when you watched Texas' season, there were just big moments where he was the guy that went to in those big moments relative to kind of Isaiah Bond being thought to be throughout the season the better prospect. Obviously, there are issues going on separate from football with Isaiah Bond, but I think when there was a lot of moments of god have it moments where Matthew Golden kind of was that spot. Then obviously the combine the whether or not he actually ran what he actually ran, but certainly he blazed it there, so that definitely helped. And then you see him landing in Green Bay in the first round. You know, we feel pretty good about the Packers offense and Jordan Loves and their ability to have a wide receiver step up. And you know, there's been the comments in the past from Matt Lafleur that well, we don't need a wide receiver one in this offense. But then they turn around and actually take a first round wide receiver for the first time in twenty plus years. Maybe it tells you that they do think they need a wide receiver one in that offense. So, I mean, that's certainly part of it as well. And I think it's things like you led into this with where I think where you'll see the biggest values that you can get is when consensus sets in really hard and it's just wrong. And so you're kind of looking at this as like this this guy went I think it was twenty second in the draft to first round pick you get him at the two oh three in a lot of drafts, and a lot of people have decided we just don't think he's very good for whatever reason. And more often than not, I think when you look at a year to year where values actually created are the situations where we're just wrong. And and Adam Harston is another football guy that I really enjoy quite a bit, and he said something a while back that really kind of stuck with me of you want to look at a range of outcomes and you want to be able to be wrong in the right direction. And so that's where I think Matthew Golden, if you're getting him at the two o two, the two oh three, then what's wrong in the right direction is he should have been a one oh eight pick and he's a wide receiver one in the Packers offense, and you've just had a massive boom there in the wrong direction. You took him over Jack Besh, like right on one of those things of you, you've kind of eliminated a lot of the risk involved in there. And another reason why I'm ending up with him way I end up with everybody that I end up with, is because of valuation of the ability to where I can buy them at, but I like to trade up from I'm getting a lot of I have a lot of good dynasty teams, and so I have a lot of late round picks, and so like that that late second kind of throwing some extra things on top of that late second to be able to jump up into that two oh two tier and to be able to grab him there. That's kind of where I end up getting a lot of him.

00:17:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a really good point about this year's drafts, where if you have sort of later seconds like I have somewhere, I'm like, you know, two ten range or something like that, and if you if you ended up having multiple late seconds, I even think trading multiple late seconds and getting into that early second round range and even you know, you could maybe even throw something back your way too, if uh, you know, if if someone's going by like a calculator or something like that. But realistically, what you're getting in the late second, if you're pairing two of those players up to get a someone in that tier, and Matthew Golden, if you will, makes a lot of sense to me because there is that pretty, you know, relatively dramatic tier draft. The other thing that I've been doing is when you know that there's like, you know, let's just say that you have Golden and Luther Burden in the same tier, right and and and you're and you know that they're gonna make it at the very latest the two o four in a super flex tighten premium. Ly, let's just say that that's that's how the draft is sort of shaped up.

00:18:34
Speaker 2: If if you're.

00:18:34
Speaker 1: Sitting at the two oh one and that that that team is on the clock, not a bad idea either to trade for the two o four at that moment, because they might not be as forward thinking into thinking like who's actually going to be available when you know that that tier is about to just be completely gone after that two oh four spot. So that's another thing that I've been doing a little bit in this in rookie drafts this year. But when it comes to Golden also, like it seems to me, fantasy managers are going to be reactive to landing spot like like a mecha Buka is falling in drafts. In my opinion, you know, is not going as high as he otherwise would because he didn't land in the best immediate production landing spot. Matthew The thing that's weird about Matthew Golden, he kind of did like, yet you get Christian Watson likely not going to play at least the first half of the season, and he's also on a rookie deal, Like this is about a long term and short term thing. He's still in his rookie deal, last year of his rookie deal. Romeo Dubbs last year of his rookie deal. So we can envision a world where Matthew Golden in three wide receiver sets, is going out there with Romeo Dubbs, Jaden Reid in the slot and Matthew Golden on the other side in the perimeter and eleven personnel and all of a sudden, you're sitting there and you know, maybe Dontavian Wix gets thrown in there a little bit and stuff. But like to me from and maybe you disagree, but from a fit perspective, it seems like this is the exact kind of wide receiver Green Bay kind of needed.

00:19:53
Speaker 3: No, Yeah, I completely agree with that. And one, his ability to attack vertically is huge, But I think he's a player that can win at all three levels and can be that. Really when you look at the Packers. I think that the knock on their wide receiver cores right now is how role limited their players are. And like Jayden Reid can really do well what Jayden Reid can do well, but he does what Jayden Reid can do, and Romeo Dubs is does what Romeo Dubs can do and that's about it. Whereas Golden can be that piece that really moves throughout and you either put him out there. You can put him out there with Dubs and wicks and move him to the slaughter, you can put him out there with He's kind of that skeleton key, and I think a lot of it's a Lad mcconkeye, I think is a little bit like this, where the view was that he was going to be a slot receiver, but then you saw mid season they started to use him deep in deeper portions of the field, and that really unlocked a lot of Lad mcconkey's game. But when you have that skeleton key receiver that can line up at every all three different positions or can attack all three different levels of the field, that really accentuates the other players that you're able to put around him, and it may make the whole picture work that much better.

00:21:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I just I like when teams make it obvious to us about how they might be deploying their wide receivers, right Whereas in Tampa Bay they get a Mecha Buca. And you know, now you have a situation where Mike Evans is on the last year and he's gonna be a free agent next year. But you have Mike Evans, who of course can play that X and play that perimeter role. But then last year they go out and they draft Jalen McMillan, who was a slot guy in college, who we all probably thought was going to profiled as a slot guy in the NFL.

00:21:32
Speaker 2: They didn't use him in the slot.

00:21:33
Speaker 3: They have.

00:21:35
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin, obviously coming off of his horrible injury, who thrived in the slot last year. They moved him back in there a little bit more than where he had been playing in the slot. And then to Mecha Buca, another player who profiles more as a slot guy, gets drafted by Tampa Bay in a spot where not a lot of people thought that they were going to go wide receiver.

00:21:55
Speaker 2: He's been kind of a controversial player in rookie drafts.

00:21:59
Speaker 1: So far are where are you at with him, and are you drafting him above or below sort of where the market's at.

00:22:05
Speaker 3: The one o eight probably is about where I land with him any and if I can get him any time between that one o eight and later range, I'm pretty thrilled with that pick. And that's one of the fun things about safe leagues because I feel like you if you end up in a lot of analyst leagues or like fantasy community leagues, that there's pretty hardline consensus on where players end up going. But you get into a Scott Fish runs these safe leagues and you get into some of those and I got I got him at like the one twelve in one league, and I was like, oh, that was unexpected, but I will certainly take him there. But I think it's anytime you kind of step past that. If he falls past that first here, that's where I'm definitely grabbing him. I think it's interesting because I mean, the parallels to Jackson Smith and Jigbar are way too easy, both Ohio state wide receivers. But the way that we saw the market react to Jackson Smith and Jigbas rookie year going into that, we knew, you know that he's up against it his rookie year here with these other two with Tyler Locko, with DK Metcalf there, and then he kind of does what we would expect him to do, and there's just a tail spin dive on his fantasy value, dynasty value, and you could buy him for next to nothing. And then he comes back year two, Tyler Lockett's basically gone, and they kind of change some things around in that offense, and now all of a sudden, he's the breakout that you were expecting to see, and it's going to be interesting to see. Is there a market correction that we're already kind of I feel like seeing that there's not market correction because of the faide that's on a mecha Buka, just because what we think will probably be a one or two year situation. But if he does have diminished production that first year, is everybody going to be out on him again, just like Jackson Smith and Jigba. And that's probably where you need to lean a little bit more on the tape when you watch these guys, because if a guy shows that he belongs, it's just situationally why he's not getting the fantasy points that we want. I mean, he's checking a box there that you want to see, and then that opens up the opportunity later.

00:24:05
Speaker 1: Hey, before you listen to more of this episode, I want to remind you to check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guide does everything you need to crush your rookie drafts this year. You get profiles for eighty running backs and wide receivers who are at the NFL Combine.

00:24:17
Speaker 2: You get profiles for year two players.

00:24:19
Speaker 1: There's information on the prospect and the year two models, and so much more.

00:24:23
Speaker 2: Learn more about it check it out now over on.

00:24:26
Speaker 1: Lateround dot com. Now back to the show. I'm gonna I'm gonna just bring this up right now because I think it's a really really really interesting discussion and actually I'm going to be doing an entire podcast it's sort of more philosophical, but also we'll dig into this trade quite a bit for next week. But I do want to talk to you about this because I just think it's a really like interesting fantasy football exercise that has gotten people riled up a bit. You know, I sent a newsletter out yesterday or a couple. We're recording this on Wednesday.

00:25:00
Speaker 2: On Friday. I sent the newsletter out though on Tuesday.

00:25:03
Speaker 1: And the newsletter was, you know, it's slow time in football seaton during the football schedule, and I'm like, all right, I'm just gonna to write up a couple of trades that I recently did. One of the trades I wrote up, people were like, oh, that was so lopsided in your favor, even though trade calculators said otherwise. And they're getting mad at me, thinking that I'm just bragging that I flee someone.

00:25:21
Speaker 2: That's not the case at all.

00:25:22
Speaker 1: But the other trade was one where they think that I got the wrong side of the deal, and that deal was Roma Doonzay for the one oh eight. And I'm with you that I think a Mecha Buka is a very good prospect, like a very very solid prospect. And the one oh eight is where, you know, whenever I made that deal, I said to myself, this is a worst case scenario for my pick would be would be a Mecha Buka. Right, And so at the very least I'm re rolling wide receiver, I'm getting a different wide out for Roma dounsay. But I have a team that's really really running back needy, and that team, you know, maybe quinch On Judkins falls, maybe one of these running backs like slips through one pick and I'm able to get one of them instead of of a mecha Buka. And what ended up happening was the one of seven's on the clock, and I ended up moving up one spot by throwing a third into into the equation because it was it's a fourteen team league, so it was the equivalent of like a later third round.

00:26:18
Speaker 2: Pick moving up one spot to get Quinchon Judkins.

00:26:20
Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, it was basically Roma Dunsay and a late third that's not gonna be that valuable for quinch On Judkins on a team that absolutely you know, I don't have many opportunities to get running backs in this kind of league because it's very deep.

00:26:32
Speaker 2: It's with analysts and stuff like that.

00:26:34
Speaker 1: And so I sent that out and I wrote about it, and it made its way to Reddit. Shout out Reddit folks. On Reddit, people hate it, but I think that it's a good community to at least have discussion whenever people are being reasonable, right, and you know, are people just are not on my side at all with giving up Roma Dunza for that one away. And it's really interesting that you bring up Jackson Smith and Jigboll when it comes to Mecha Buka because just like JSN, just like a Mecha Buca, Roma Dunza was in a situation where last year where it was just bad across the board with a lot of competition.

00:27:09
Speaker 2: So people are saying, why would you give up on Roma.

00:27:11
Speaker 1: Dunze now for a player who's going to be in a very similar situation as a Duneza in twenty twenty six? Right, And so first off, I want to ask you, would you have made that trade? And then the other thing I want to ask you just generally you know, do you And we can maybe get into like Luther Burden a little bit and how you feel about the Bears offense, But are you when these seasons happen, like when a Roma Dunza year one happens, when a JSN year one happens, and we can make excuses, how do you sort of balance that like like are you are you willing to just throw away the poor peripherals or are you just sort of mixing everything together to try to just come out with the best like expected value if you will, for that guy moving forward?

00:27:54
Speaker 3: So I would not have then done that deal. I still believe in Roma Dunsay, and I think it's it's easy to look at the situation last year having rookie Caleb Williams having the mess of the coaching staff, with the Bears having Keenan Allen there and dismiss the production. And so that's where leaning into believing that Roman Dunsea obviously went in the top ten in his class just one year ago, and we've seen the situation change dramatically with Ben Johnson coming in, with Keenan Allen gone. Obviously they added other pieces as well, but with the rumors around DJ Moore, the supposed unhappiness around DJ Moore, I would still be willing to bet on Roman Dunzay kind of still popping as that wide receiver one within that Bears offense and Caleb Williams still having I still believe Kayleb Williams has tremendous upside and I'm not punting on him after just one year either. So that's where I land on that, and a lot of that's because dynasty based. I'm wide receiver two default probably likely there and kind of looking for product that I can plug in from running backs later, not really gambling on those more premium running back profiles as opposed to a wide receiver that again a top ten pick. I kind of understand why the production was lower last year. But that being said, if Roma Dounsa just doesn't look the part to start this year, I am the type that I'll ripcord pretty quickly on that situation of you know, we've seen two off seasons. Now we've seen an opportunity to move in your direction, and what's the cone we're not seeing it get put together?

00:29:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, here's the thing I want to say too, is number one, when I make a deal like that and I think you would agree with this, I would assume you would agree with this too. I'm not making that action and saying I think Roma dune Day is absolutely going to go south.

00:29:47
Speaker 2: You know, I think that is the I fully reckon.

00:29:49
Speaker 1: Like even in the Prospect Guide in the year two profile section, I comped Roma Dounsday's year one to DeAndre Hopkins. It's a very similar path, a very similar situation what DeAndre Hopkins went through. So I fully recognize that that situation, you know, like how that all what looks But the one thing I'll say, and you mentioned JSN and how his value dropped, you know, a decent bit. If you look at like DLF ADP year over year, So last year, at this time, Jackson Smith and Jigba's wide receiver ADP was wide receiver thirty five. It was a little bit higher on Keep Trade Cut, but it was wide receiver thirty five. Now at the time of this recording, DLF doesn't have updated ADP for May. But if you look at Roma Dunsay on Keep Trade Cut, Roma Dunsay's wide receiver twenty right now on Keep Trade Cut where which which tells you that he's number one obviously gonna be boosted by the Ben Johnson move right, but they just added a top ten tight end, a top fifty wide receiver in this class, and Roma Dunsay's overall wide receiver rank dropped by four spots despite those things being added. And on top of that, he's coming off a rookie season where I agree like whenever I'm again whenever this this hits Reddit and people are like, you know, and I'm trying to explain, like his yards Peru run was really poor and all this kind of stuff.

00:31:11
Speaker 2: They're like, well, you're not giving that any context.

00:31:13
Speaker 1: I'm like, I am I fully recognize that, you know, his catchball target rate was really low, and that the scheme was bad all that kind of stuff. But at the same time, I don't think we can just fully dismiss everything.

00:31:25
Speaker 2: You know, like it still happened.

00:31:27
Speaker 1: It still matters, because if we were to dismiss Roma Dunza and what happened with him in his rookie season, we need to do that for every wide receiver historically. When we know that every wider, like, there's been other wide receivers historically that have been in a similar situation, maybe not identical, but a similar enough situation where they didn't pan out right, like where this was a predictive year one rookie season. And I like what you said about not seeing something pretty much right away, you know, from him and sort of flipping there, because let me ask you this, where does a donsa do you think, like what kind of season does he need to have in order to increase his dynasty value into year three? Like right now, he's wide receiver twenty okay, And look, there's something to be said about even maintaining dynasty value, right, So I'll even say just maintaining right, I'm not I won't even say gain. So what does Roma douns they need to do from a production standpoint and from you know, just a giving value to your fantasy team standpoint here as a sophomore in the NFL for him to at least maintain value in Dynasty, Like, where do you think he needs to rank.

00:32:35
Speaker 3: Wide receiver two at the bottom? I think if you're outside of top twenty four, I think you've got a real problem there. But I think there's moving pieces with Chicago though as well, because we don't know what DJ Moore's short term, long term future is going to be. And obviously we haven't seen Luther Burden on an NFL field yet, and so and I do tend to believe that the Luther Burden pick I think was a little bit. I think they were they saw Trade Henderson's sitting there and they had that card filled out. They were standing next to the podium ready to say Travon Henderson and then he went and it was one of those that we get those in our rookie drafts. I feel like where you're like, all right, Luther Burton's going to be there. I'm going to take Luther Burden and then Luther Burton's gone, and you're like, oh, wow, I would really like to trade this pick right now, and I've got eight hours. Maybe I can manufacturer a trade because that was the guy that I wanted In the NFL draft. They have five minutes and if nobody's calling, then you got to turn something in. So I think that there's some context around maybe that Luther Burdon pick, but you can't deny that they did make that pick, and they obviously liked him in some level to be able to make that pick. But I think it's in terms of fantasy scoring, you need a wide receiver two seats in top twenty four season or at least you're feeling like you're seeing the big plays. You're seeing those types of things. You're seeing the shift in the offense moving in the direction of he is going to be that guy. He is going to beat Kaylea Williams receiver one target, those types of things, some obviously seeing a top twenty four season, some intrinsic type things where you can obviously see he's making these plays. The pick capability is there, volume will come pretty soon if it's not here already, Versus a player that really just kind of looks lost, and they're just he's kind of out there being Tim Patrick in Ben Johnson's offense, and you know, maybe he'll occasionally catch a touchdown and you're you're kind of like talking yourself into it because he accidentally ends up with nine touchdowns, but he only has fifty receptions and seven hundred yards in year two, Like those types of things would be more red flag.

00:34:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so that's where I stand too, Like I think that it's like what's really strange about the Roman don Day stuff is that I actually think I'm going to be really heavy.

00:34:48
Speaker 2: On a Dounesday and redraft this year.

00:34:50
Speaker 1: Like I think I'm gonna draft him a lot because the cost of acquire is not going to be as significant in a middle round redraft pick. Sure, Like I'll go that direction all day long when when I know that the profiles there and the upside still exists.

00:35:03
Speaker 2: But if you look at like a.

00:35:04
Speaker 1: Median expected outcome, just a median outcome. His projections this year, Mike Clay is the gold standard with projections. Mike Clay's projections right now have Roma Dune says wide receiver forty one this year. My projections haven't met wide receiver thirty six, and so my point is is that if he does hit that median outcome, which I think is obviously possible because that's the median outcome, then all of a sudden, we're now like, like fantasy managers can be forgiving after one season to a degree, they are not forgiving after two.

00:35:33
Speaker 2: Which is why going back to what you said at the top, where you know.

00:35:36
Speaker 1: You mentioned like, I will flip him as soon as I can, even if you take like a little bit of a loss early in this early in the season, I do think that this is one of those scenarios where you would have to do something like that because it's it's a falling knife situation right where it's like it is like Eric, it could right, it could go in that direction where if he doesn't get off to a hot start and things just start to spiral in the wrong direction and he does end up hitting that like fringe wide receiver three season, there is no chance that fantasy managers are going to be forgiving enough to keep him around that wide receiver twenty to twenty five price tag, you know, entering year three in that system. Whereas with a guy like a mechaic BUCA. I think that's because of JSN. People are probably going to be more forgiving if he does have Not only that, but I think that there's also something to be said about peripherals and us being a smarter consensus than we used to be, where you know, like like part of the problem with Roma Dunze. Of course it's all situation based, and it was really bad last year, but he also had poor peripherals, like objectively right, like his one point one to eight yards per out run rate. You know, it just wasn't like he was okay in terms of like yards per team pass attempt and stuff, but like there were some of these secondary numbers that are troubling and Jack Smith and Jibb but actually had slightly better numbers, you know than a Dounze did there.

00:36:51
Speaker 2: But like if a mechanic BUCA, like let's say that Tampa Bay.

00:36:55
Speaker 1: Decides to not run him out that that frequently for whatever reason, and they do. I mean, look like Chris Godwin's rookie year. Chris Godwin's rookie year is a great example of this, where they didn't run him out that that frequently. He didn't run a ton of routes, but his yards perau run was unbelievably good, right, Yeah, And so if a Mecha Buka at least shows that, you don't think that there's gonna be a lot of fantasy analysts that are out there saying, like, we got to buy into this guy because he has a two point three yards perou run rate as a rookie. And then, oh, by the way, now all of a sudden, Tampa Bay's situation is a lot better. But even if it's not better, like we will still kind of buy into the emerging talent as opposed to the guys that are sort of over the hill and Mike Evans if he does stick around and Chris godwins.

00:37:36
Speaker 2: So that's kind of where I was thinking.

00:37:37
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, like I didn't do that trade thinking I was fleecing the other manager. You know, I'm not sitting here like I thought it was a fair trade on paper, and maybe someone says, no, you should have gotten like the one oh six or something like that.

00:37:51
Speaker 2: Totally fair, totally fine.

00:37:53
Speaker 1: But I think that when we analyze these individual players, it's so easy to fall into the trap of only looking at one side of the argument. You know, only looking at the rosy side, it is totally reasonable to think that Roma Dunza is the better piece in that trade.

00:38:09
Speaker 2: Totally reasonable.

00:38:10
Speaker 1: But I also think it's reasonable to say this could go south like this could this could be a situation where even if he does have the talent, his situation might not actually be as good as we think.

00:38:22
Speaker 2: It is, you know, entering entering twenty twenty five.

00:38:24
Speaker 1: But I wanted to take some time to talk about that a little bit because it was a very hot topic this week, and this being late round perspectives, I like to talk about, you know, what's going on with late Round Fantasy football and the show and the things I'm talking about and stuff. But anything else you want to add about Adunze before we before we move on here.

00:38:40
Speaker 3: I think you've hit it really, really well, and you're really looking at realistic range of outcomes, and you talk about that median projection as being a wide receiver thirty six, and that's I think one point that I think is really interesting, and I love the numbers and being able to paint the picture with that, and you're talking about the usage of a Mecca Buca verse like the low yards per route run those types of things with Roma Dunsay. I think it's it's interesting when you've got a player like a Meca Buca and he's playing in a situational role and the team is saying when he is on the field, we are getting the ball in his hands because we believe in him, and where it goes the other direction on a Rouma Dunsay is like he's going to be out there every single play because he can walk, and he can run nine routes and he can totally thing, but there's no intention on getting him the ball. And that's where that's where I feel like you need to see that beginning because it's like if you see the same thing of like, well, he's out there every single snap, he's doing a great job cracking down and blocking, and he's running these nine routes and they are fine giving him three targets per game, versus having that flip of Ben Johnson stepping in and saying, you know, DJ Moore, like he can get on board or you cannot, but we do believe in Roman Dunday. We're going to make sure that he's getting his ten to twelve targets per game. And you know, scheme it up that he's going to be getting the ball.

00:40:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like at the end of the day, I think that the question that we really should be asking is not necessarily like I mean, it's not even like fully about a Doonza's talent. It's just where are we attributing what happened in year one? And how are we attributing it?

00:40:14
Speaker 2: Right?

00:40:15
Speaker 1: Like you could sit here and be just this like you know, nerd in your mom's basement and say, oh, he's going to be terrible no matter what, because he had a one point one eight yards per out run. But there's obviously a mix here and some context that's needed. But it's how much of that context are you going to allow to influence what those numbers are? That's what the question really is. And it's not an easy question to answer, and no one, I think no one should be confidently and boastfully answering that question. You know, like there's just a lot of nuance to something like that that is not very easy to.

00:40:47
Speaker 2: Get out number one in a newsletter, let alone a Reddit post. You know what I mean?

00:40:51
Speaker 3: Yes, And what I think that that confidence right there is I think that's the most exploitable thing in fantasy football is when there's just confidence that you know, confidence that you are convinced that this is the outcome for a player, and not willing to live within that range of outcomes. And so I don't hate you for doing that trade. I think it's fine. I think it's I think it's way too And you have the right mindset too. You're not walking into that thinking that you're winning this trade. That's when you get trades done. You're looking for a potential pivot. You're looking at the range of outcomes, you're looking at the potential valuation. I mean, you could this could be the situation where you still want to buy Roma dum Day in a year, even though the numbers don't support it. All of a sudden, you can buy him back for a lot cheaper than what you originally sold him for. Like you're seeing the things that you want to see. It's not leading to fantasy points, but there's reason. You can tell yourself the story. You can buy into the reason, and you can turn around and here's the second in this random player that I don't really care about anymore, and I'm buying Roman Dunsay back, and all of a sudden, Okay, it did click in years read DJ Moore is gone or these things changed, and that's nothing's finalized, you know.

00:42:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, right right?

00:42:01
Speaker 1: And I also values yeah, and I also am like, look this, this is something you know. I'm not always like so overt about trades and stuff because no one cares about my fantasy leagues.

00:42:10
Speaker 2: But in a situation like this, if Roma Dunes blows up.

00:42:13
Speaker 1: And he's a star, right and he's he's a next year the wide receiver five in fantasy football, am I gonna be upset? Of course, I want to win trades at the end of the day. But that's a result, right, Like, that's one of the many, many results that this could go down. And if you're not thinking about the many, many results and you're only honed in on that ninety ninth percentile outcome, you're gonna lose far more than when in the long run, right I might. Look, we've all had trades where we lost greatly from from the from the trade that happened, Right, that's going to happen. I'm just walking through the thought process behind it because I think it's helpful for people to just generally think about fantasy.

00:42:48
Speaker 2: Football little bit differently. That's why they're listening to a podcast like this in the first place.

00:42:51
Speaker 1: So one player who people might be pretty confident in giving the landing spot and and you know his general profiles are Jay Harvey.

00:43:02
Speaker 2: Where are you at with Harvey?

00:43:03
Speaker 1: Are you one who's willing to take him in the traveon tier let's say, and get him in the in the top seven picks let's say of rookie drafts, or are you kind of just waiting and seeing if he falls and that's where you're gonna snatch him up.

00:43:17
Speaker 3: I'm below market on him. I just I think he's fine and certainly day two landing spot, that's great. I think that I tend to believe audrics is going to be more involved than maybe people realize and want to realize, just because we've seen in the past where you know these channel Sean Payton says some nice things about Audricus. May you look at goal line usage. I don't think legill Leo McLaughlin is going to go away, and so I don't think it's going to be the type of I think what I am seeing, at least maybe what I'm internalizing people doing is viewing our j Harvey as he's now our Alvin Kamara, and he's going to be the Alvin Kamara. He's going to catch a hundred balls. He's going to be the whole focal point. Whereas, like what I'm seeing with r J. Harvey is kind of rolling back to some of those Saints offenses that had Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles together in a backfield and Sean Payton kind of seeing of having Swiss Army knife utility out of your backfield and kind of leaning in that direction. Certainly, I think RJ. Harvey can be the leader in that situation, but I think it's more they want to have options in their backfield as opposed to they said these other guys are horrible. This guy's are a Kamara and he is going to be the leader of the backfield.

00:44:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, what are the odds I was thinking about this when I was building projections and you being a projections person too, Like, what are the odds that he is a true belcal back like it? To me, it feels like this is a and again people do keep comping like this this backfield right now or r J Harvey to previous Peyton backfields. I've seen Darren Sproles get thrown out there, which Harvey is not the same kind of player as Sproles. The one player who I think he kind of might be like if you want to have that historic comp Pierre Thomas feels like the RJ.

00:45:04
Speaker 2: Harvey, like like that's what we could get out of it.

00:45:06
Speaker 1: Where Pierre Thomas was definitely viable in fantasy football, but it was more of a you know, in that sort of committee situation, and you know, the Alvin Kamara stuff. To me, I mean like Kamara was a was a excellent, excellent, excellent pass catcher coming out.

00:45:21
Speaker 2: The ZA model sees it that way as well.

00:45:24
Speaker 1: And Harvey to me has at least some analytical question marks as a pass catcher, Like it's not the cleanest pass catching profile that I've ever seen. I'm kind of like at market, I'm just kind of getting him if he falls a couple spots below where he generally goes. But do you see like this being I mean sounds like you see this being more of a committee than what folks are kind of projecting at this moment.

00:45:44
Speaker 3: That's where I am. I think it's going to be a little bit more of a committee than what people are projecting. I mean, it's talking about range of outcomes. Again, certainly it's within the range of outcomes that he is just the belcow that they didn't at restume they did look at Julia McLaughlan and say these guys aren't it. This guy is going to be it. But I think it's also again you see the way that Peyton has used backfields in the past, and I'm not writing off estimate completely like it seems that a lot have, and even McLaughlin is not writing him off. And you talk about maybe the if Harvey's more than Pierre Thomas, then maybe McLaughlin is the darren Sproles and maybe you know odd customery. Obviously we know what he would be. He is kind of the more that that battery am Bell Coow type of a back or not balcow, but heavy volume, early down goal line type work. And so I think that that's where I land on what they're trying to build out of this. But I don't think that there's a likelihood that RJ. Harvey is the third running back and he's just not that involved. When you use the dayty pick on a guy, you kind of say that, okay, this he should be leading this committee.

00:46:50
Speaker 2: Do you have Caleb Johnson above or below RJ. Harvey? That to me is one of the tougher decisions right now.

00:46:56
Speaker 3: I have Caleb Johnson above just because I think I think it's a little bit cleaner situation. I mean, we have a pretty strong idea what Caleb Johnson's going to be, and there was moments where that was good for Naja Harris. There was moments where that wasn't the greatest for Naja Harris. But and maybe Jalen Warren does have a larger role and Caleb Johnson is kind of pushed to the wayside. But I don't know. I would rather deal with what I think is relatively clean to headed backfield than try to predict a potential three headed backfield.

00:47:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the fit's perfect for Caleb. Like everyone's talking about J. Harvey being a great fit, which sure like I don't disagree, But Caleb Johnson he comped really closely to analytically, of course, to both lay On Bell and James Connor in the ZAP model. And then you know Jalen Warren. This is something I talked about on the show earlier this week. But Jalen Warren is a free agent next year and Mike Tomlin teams are no stranger to having Bell cow back. So if Caleb Johnson, to me, in my opinion, if Caleb Johnson shows up and he's better than advertised and which I think could define happened because he he got drafted far later than where mock drafts had him and such like mock drafts had him as like a late second rounder, And so if he shows up and maybe he's a little bit more explosive than what his speed score showed, which was fine. I mean, the speed score wasn't even that bad. But maybe he's a little bit more explosive and h you know, he gives you that that Bell call ability. I mean, we could very easily be looking at him being that player in twenty twenty six, which would be huge and all of a sudden, you know, if that's the case, I think most people would be taking Caleb Johnson over over r J.

00:48:30
Speaker 2: Harvey.

00:48:30
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's been a it's been a weird kind of back and forth decision.

00:48:34
Speaker 3: For me.

00:48:34
Speaker 1: I've just kind of split it, which is which is really lame, because you.

00:48:38
Speaker 2: Know, people want more boldness, you know, with.

00:48:40
Speaker 1: Those kinds of takes, but I could see the outcomes for both of them being pretty favorable.

00:48:45
Speaker 3: I just take Tyler Warren, So yeah, yeah, there you go. Now that I think it's and you mentioned mock drafts, and I think that context is important there because I think we're at a point now where, even with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl only because they had Taquon Barkley, I think that you've got half the league that is just not going to value the running back position and you just write it off. And I think it's one of the things that we've been frustrations that we've been running into in Fantasy Dynasty the last couple of years, where you've got half the league just doesn't value the position at all. They're just not going to take a Day two running back. They don't care. And then the other half of the league gets to a point where they say, well, we've got Ken Walker and he was really good, but we still value running back. And Zach Charbone is sitting here and he's the clear top guy on our board, So we'll take Zach charbonay too, and we'll just do that because that's where value dictates we move, and I think Cale Johnson too is a player that maybe a percentage of those teams that would value that running back just didn't seem as a scheme fit for them, whereas he seems like a perfect scheme fit for.

00:49:43
Speaker 2: The seersdred percent.

00:49:45
Speaker 1: One last guy I want to ask you about is Basehall Tuton or you enter out on Tuton.

00:49:50
Speaker 3: Where do you think Travis CTN is playing Week one this year?

00:49:54
Speaker 1: I still think it'll be Jacksonville, but I think there's a chance that it's not Jacksonville.

00:49:58
Speaker 2: I definitely think there's a chance.

00:50:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's on that fifth year option exactly. Don't think that they that's where Yeah, it kind of it opens the door for him not to be a Jacksonville Jaguar, I think right now, and kind of go in that direction of having Bigsby and Teuton. I've not really been buying Tuton just I feel like I'm like I usually take like Kyle Williams is sitting there or a guy like that is kind of where I go in that tier. Probably, But I again, team's gonna tell us what they believe, and I think at long term, I think it says that Travis ETN is not going to be a Jaguar a long term Whether or not Week one five season is long term or not, I think that that's the question I have in my mind.

00:50:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, man, I'm I'm a believer that anytime there's a new coaching staff, do not feel too comfortable with the existing personnel that's there, you know. And sure I can make that same argument for Romadunza in my favor, but I won't even make it because I think at Dounza was obviously a really good prospect. It is a little bit different with a situation like that because he's still really young. I just mean, like the existing veterans that are on that team, I don't think it's a lock that we, you know, maybe early on in the season we see that that same Etn Bigsby kind of combo, but I think it's we could very easily see two because I don't think Etn is necessarily at this point in his career, any better than a guy like base Shall Tutan and and Tank Bigsby is a different kind of player than base Shall Tuton.

00:51:20
Speaker 2: They actually kind of work pretty well.

00:51:21
Speaker 1: In tandem, where Bigsby's kind of that that Bruiser and Touton can be that home run hitter, you know, like honestly, like a Kenneth Walker Zach sharbonet combination. And so I think that we could see that happen, you know, at least towards the end of the year, because Etn is almost definitely not.

00:51:37
Speaker 2: Going to be a Jag in twenty twenty six, you know. Yeah.

00:51:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, And Jeames Gladstone coming in from the Rams. Yeah, obviously Tutan's a sparked up guy. The Rams like those types of guys, and the Rams by mandate have to take a running back. Every single year they've drafted a running back, I think every single year since maybe twenty seventeen was the last year they didn't draft a running back. So he knew. James Gladstone in his first draft was contractually morally obligated to take a running back.

00:52:01
Speaker 1: Speaking of the running back that they took, Jark West Hunter. He's going after round two in these rookie drafts. Are there any favorites? Is he one of your favorites after round two? Are there any other guys that you seem to be targeting a lot after those first twenty FOURIST picks?

00:52:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Woody Marx landing with the Texans and stepping in there as a potential. We've seen Joe Mixon have the bellcou or not balco but pass catching compliment in the past with Gio Bernard with somemagp Ran there, so he kind of profiles very cleanly into that in that Texans offense. Jayden Blue landing with Dallas and kind of just the uncertainty general uncertainty. One of the things that I really enjoy that I've got from you in the past is lean into that uncertainty in those situations and kind of placing a chip there to be able to have it break in that direction. I think Ali Gordon landing in Miami is kind of looking at that as maybe the raheem moster. This guy falls into fifteen touchdowns just because they have so many struggles in their short yardage, and they brought in Alexander Madison, who off struggles in the short yardage, so Olly Gordon kind of can be that answer there. And then another guy I see landing there quite a bit is Elijah Royo, and that's a Day Round two tight end, and I think that people see, you know, maybe Noah Fan hasn't really happened for the Seahawks and what's the questions there? But I see that selection of Arroyo coming in as being a commitment to being a twelve personnel offense to tight ends. He kind of profiles a little bit more as a slot, big slot, power slot type of a player as opposed to an inline tight end, classic inline type player. And they got a J Barner long term that can be that piece, or Noah Fan can be there and he's landing. You got a round two tight end that you can regularly get in round three. That's somewhere that I'm willing to make a bet.

00:53:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think going back to the Jayden Blue common, I think there's like an eighty percent chance that Jayden Blue makes my late round Darth Rows list this year.

00:53:54
Speaker 2: In the in the draft.

00:53:55
Speaker 1: Guide, it's like we're seeing more teams embrace some smaller running back.

00:54:01
Speaker 2: I don't think that.

00:54:01
Speaker 1: You know, historically we haven't seen the only Day three running backs that have really hit that have been smaller. I mean, we had Bucky last year, we had Kyrien Williams. I don't think Jayden Blue is like they were better between the tackles runners coming out right like they were they saw bigger workloads. They weren't the kind of back that Jayden Blue is. But I do kind of think that Dallas might envision Jaden Blue playing a role like Jamiir Gibbs plays, where they they at least kind of get them, like maybe get him like one hundred to one hundred like not not quite Jamir Gibbs, but maybe get him. And obviously he's not as talented, but maybe get him like one hundred to one hundred and twenty carries on the ground, but then let him do work as a receiver out of the backfield because that's that's that's where he can be very, very electric. So I do like Jayden Blue. This that Moodel really likes Jayden Blue as well. Any any undrafted free agents that you've had your eye on as a as a DeBie guy.

00:54:53
Speaker 3: Are we we talking like undrafted in the actual NFL draft, right?

00:54:56
Speaker 1: Yes, That's what I was either way though, any guys literally, I mean we're just talking like.

00:55:00
Speaker 2: Total total dart throws regardless.

00:55:02
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, in undrafted players in the actual NFL draft, our total dart throws. But f Chisholm landing with the Patriots, that was the one that when he kind of hit my raider in January, I tweeted, like, chishom, you're a Patriot and like, and we see him sign there and then really kind of looking for scheme fits there, opportunity fits. I think Tray Stewart landing in Minnesota is interesting because we've seen I was, I don't think ty Chandler was drafted, or if he was drafted, it was obviously three yeah. Yeah, but we know Minnesota had had five picks in the draft, and so they they signed him almost immediately. When when the draft ended, it's pretty crowded backfield now with Aaron Jones there, with Jordan Mason Witch Chandler still there. But that's opportunity Raheem Sanders, Rocket Sanders, he was.

00:55:49
Speaker 1: Were you surprised that Sanders didn't get drafted at all? Like I thought maybe a seventh round pick, like when when you're seeing Kyle Manunga I get get drafted in round seven. I thought it because Sanders at least has the athletic profile.

00:56:01
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, And I think it was just volume of running backs this year. We knew that it was a heavier volume running back draft year this year, and so Sanders being he was some people have Debbie running back one two or three years ago, and so landing undrafted, I mean Donovan Edwards kind of is a little bit similar of a explosive player went undrafted. He's very crowded there with the Jets. Jalen Conyers landing with Miami. That was a guy I was a little bit surprised was undrafted because that's another Debbie Darling that everybody was kind of waiting for that and it seemed like he figured some things out his last year there at Texas Tech and and then kind of didn't obviously didn't get drafted. But Miami outside of John Smith, you're talking, what do they Farrell Brown, they got Jalen what's his name? Jen? It's not Jalen Hill, is it. It's the guy that they kind of like a little bit that hasn't really done anything. But that's an opportunity for Conyer's to make that team. And then a complete Darth throw ISAA and na or from that's about waldman favorite act. It was yeah, yeah, yeah, and that I mean that's just a sparkd up's high speed guy hanging with the forty nine ers and forty nine Ers are one of these that obviously we I feel like last year we knew it with having a Uke, having Debo, having Ricky piersall come in, the emergence of Dwan Jennings. But really, once you get past those guys, it's pretty wide open. Yeah, Pebo Samuel being gone there, and so that's where just one of these freak athletes that can make the team. But these are again I mean complete like sixteen team, like very deep tart throws.

00:57:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, the forty nine ers seem to never get players. Do you expect them to get a wide receiver and running back like ever almost ever, like even Walkins this year, Like I'm I didn't really do it for me. It's just it seemed like a little bit of a reach and all that, and like so yeah, I mean, like I think, like like last year they did get Jacob Cowing, who I thought was at least interesting and might have been like like loosely a.

00:57:50
Speaker 2: Tank Dell type if things really hit for him.

00:57:52
Speaker 1: But yeah, even still, you know, they're just they do some really strange things, you know, with with their uh, with their wide out picks and particular, I want to ask you just a couple of backfield questions before we before we go. You know, we talked about Dallas a little bit. They barely did anything in this draft other than you know, getting Jayden Blue. They got Phil MafA really late, which I think, like hypothetically, the two of them combined is actually not the worst pairing in the world, right, Like I thought, I thought personally, and this is kind of a tangent, but after the Browns got quin Shawn Judkins and then they got Dylan Sampson, I thought that, like Jayden Blue would have worked better in like a Cleveland backfield with quin John Judkins than a Dylan Samson type. But at least Dallas is thinking about the archetype of these running backs a little bit. But Javonte Williams is there, Miles Sanders is there. Is Javonte Williams going to be a thing? Like is that what we're looking at this year?

00:58:44
Speaker 3: Given his current value, I think it's worth betting and taking that bet because if it hits, I mean, it's just a tremendous payoff. You're talking about an underdog right now, about a tenth round pick, I think is where you can get Davonte Williams. And so I know he's kind of seems to be maybe that last guy you can talk yourself into being a pretty clean running back one in that backfield, and so it's it's worth making the bet at his current value. I feel like there was It's you talk about the consensus getting smarter, and I think you're exactly right. I think that there was a time, maybe not even that long ago, when Javanta Williams right now would be sitting as like a round five player.

00:59:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly right.

00:59:20
Speaker 3: And where now it's kind of like leaning into the over correction maybe of like we've gotten really smart, maybe we've gotten too smart, and some like it's still kind of like, hey, this could be a guy that we all really liked two or three years ago, and the Cowboys don't have a running back. I mean why not.

00:59:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's really funny.

00:59:38
Speaker 1: I'm in an FFPC league and you had to cut you know, we had to cut down a lot. Me and my co manager had to cut down on a lot of guys because the way that they have those leagues formatted, and Javonte Williams was basically going to be a cut candidate because we just had a lot of depth on this team. And so we ended up trading him for a future third before the NFL Draft happened. Okay, and it's so strange that the draft had happens. They don't take a Day one or Day two running back, and that's probably still the valuation of Javante Williams right like like like you probably can still throw like a third and get a Javante if you really wanted to. From a dynasty perspective, like, it's just it's weird how the market doesn't hasn't really shifted at all to the fact that all Dallas did was take Day three running backs and you know, we saw Rico Daldle be relevant down the stretch last year. I think it's it's a it's a pretty interesting spot where you just kind of have to like plug your nose and make the selection, you know, if you're if you're drafting them, because it's not gonna it's not gonna feel good.

01:00:36
Speaker 2: Uh.

01:00:36
Speaker 1: What about Isaiah Pacheco with the Chiefs only getting Breshard Smith in round seven.

01:00:41
Speaker 3: That seems to be one. I think he's undervalued. I'm trying to get him when I can, just because it's kind of been out of side, out of mind. I think maybe with Harry a little bit or we saw a little bit of that, a little bit of We saw him come back and he clearly wasn't himself when he came back, and he tried he knew they were in the Super Bowl push, he tried to do that for them. In a normal situation, he probably never would have stepped anywhere near a field. And so we see some of those types of things and tend to write this player off. But I mean, cream Hunt doesn't is I don't know, like I think that a healthy Isaiah pa Chacko cream Hunt is not touching the ball very often at all. It's not going to be a committee between the two of them. And you know, I love the landing spot of Rishard Smith. I've made the comparison to Jeric McKinnon. That's I think pretty natural, you know, and kind of those wide receiver slash type routes that we saw McKinnon running when he was that running back two in twenty twenty two over the last portion of the season. I mean, that's certainly in play. But again, you're talking about a seventh round pick doing that. I mean, this guy could not be anything at all, And you like the Chiefs because they hit with Isaiah pa Checko in the seventh round gives you that belief on that, and seeing a pretty clear role trusting Andy Reid gives you a belief on that. But I mean there's also the very strong likelihood that the Jeco is just the guy and he should be Again, this is like an eighth round pick right now on underdog that you easily I think right now it's fun to be in these underdog drafts because you easily see a guy like Kezaana Pacheco that it's like a couple positive news stories or a couple of things, and you're getting him in round eight and he's gonna be a round four pick in a month. Yeah. So I think that there's you can kind of see these guys early and underdog kind of stand out in those directions, and I think he's primed for that. Yeah.

01:02:25
Speaker 1: I remember I had Jeff Mueller on Perspectives during the season last year and I asked him about Pachecko because it was kind of like a couple of weeks, you know, there was like talk about him returning and all this kind of stuff, and no one really knew the timetable at the time, and I asked Jeff, like what he expected from Pacheco, and he's basically like, this is a lost season. Like don't don't add it, Like you don't need to add him on your redraft rosters. We shouldn't be bullish about because it's a tough injury to just immediately come back from.

01:02:49
Speaker 2: You're gonna there's gonna be a ramp up period.

01:02:51
Speaker 1: And so the fact that we saw what we saw from Pachecko really, to me wasn't that much of a surprise because I talked to somebody who studies that thing about injuries and he said that.

01:03:00
Speaker 2: This was going to be a difficult thing to come back from. So I'm with you.

01:03:03
Speaker 1: You know, obviously Pacheka holds a special place in my heart. He was one of the models like bigger just general hits over the last you know, five years. But like I do think that that it's a it's a pretty decent spot for him to be in. I don't know if he has RB one upside per se, but I definitely think he's at least a value and you can gain value from that. The last backfield I think everyone will want to hear about is is Chicago like, is DeAndre Swift a thing now?

01:03:29
Speaker 3: As long as Ken Walker and as long as Travis d. Tann aren't Bears, I think there can be a thing. But it's again, you've got these pieces. There's already been the rumors about Kenneth Walker. I mean, there's been rumors about JK. Dobbins ling out there. I mean, that's another guy you can get in like around seventeen, an underdog that I mean, he's probably going to be playing somewhere. But I think it's I think it's really difficult to divorce the way that things ended with Swift in Detroit and Ben Johnson coming in there and thinking that it's going to be a fresh starret and like benjon Since going to be behind him relative to maybe some of the other pieces that might shake free. I mean, we talked earlier in the show about tre Van Henderson. It seemed like the Bears were ready to go tra Van Henderson. It seemed like the Bears were all over Ash and Gents if he was on the board at ten and so, I mean that tells you that I don't think Kyle Mnunguy is quieting that desire to Yeah, for a player like that.

01:04:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually think that Roshawn Johnson's even kind of interesting right now too, just as like a random dart, because if you just look at what his projection looks like with this with this current backfield, it's like RB forty ish. You know, it's it's not anything special, but you can get them twenty picks after that, you know, in a draft right now, and if things do stay the same, then obviously that's that's you're gaining some value there. And then there's injury upside if something were to happened in season of DeAndre Swift. And to me, you know, I feel like I've been crapping on Kyle Manungui and in my podcast and stuff. I'm not trying. I mean, I've been actually throwing some fourth round darts at Manunguy just because why not, you know. But at the end of the day, like I think Roshawn Johnson was a better prospect, and you know, Johnson actually had some interesting peripherals last year where his success rate was twelve percentage points better than DeAndre Swift, better in basically every efficiency category versus Swift, So.

01:05:14
Speaker 2: There could be something there. If he's gonna be sort.

01:05:16
Speaker 1: Of like the David Montgomery Jamal Williams type in that in that Ben Johnson offense.

01:05:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that's one of those that as you play more fantasy football, these these gross guys get more interesting to you. Yeah, right, right, kind of like I mean sure I could see it working versus like I feel like when you're relatively new or kind of going like like whoever the new hotness is, like yeah, I want that guy versus now, I'll take the discount on the gross guy and if he's not anything, I'll cut him and move on. But if he is something, I mean I've got the discount already. Yeah.

01:05:44
Speaker 1: I'm just a big fan. I think this goes back to just playing a lot more too. I'm just a big fan of like trying to find those micro edges as much as possible in my leagues where it's obviously a lot easier to gain value on your team, to get the macro edges to make the big trades and to have those trades work out. But if you can just gobble up it's like the long tail, right, if you can just gobble up a lot of those micro transactions and win frequently with those transactions, maybe like a seventy percent win rate with those kind of transactions that'll help your your dynasty teams at the end of the day, you know, like yes, having Roshawn Johnson sitting on your bench as even a handcuff is still valuable, you know, And I think that that people it's not sexy, right, I mean, that's that's what it comes down to him. It's a it's a very boring, boring pick and a boring player to go attack. All right, I got one more question for you before I'll let you go.

01:06:30
Speaker 2: Just give me.

01:06:31
Speaker 1: Look, it's May, early May. It's not even just May. This is we're recording this on May seventh.

01:06:36
Speaker 2: But I want a bold early take about the twenty twenty five season from Jeff Bell.

01:06:42
Speaker 3: Kyle Williams rookie wide receiver two overall.

01:06:45
Speaker 2: Ooh, I like that. I like this. So you're a big Kyle Williams guy.

01:06:49
Speaker 3: I am a big Kyle Williams guy, and you know, part of its flag plant back in January. But seeing through the process, but landing, I don't think he could have landed in a better situation than landing in New England. I think profile wise, the wide receivers that I've worked in Josh McDaniel's offense. He kind of fits that really really well, and I think you can see a pretty easy path to him being a heavy volume guy for Drake May emerging quickly as Drake May's wide receiver one. I'm sure Stefan Dick's maybe has something I don't know coming out with injury and like age thirty, Like that's real iffy to me, And so I think Williams can step up and be that obviously rookie wide receiver two.

01:07:26
Speaker 2: Overall, Yeah, really strange profile for me.

01:07:28
Speaker 1: Like when I wrote up his pre draft profile back in late February, basically is when I wrote it, I was like, I said something along the lines of, like, Kyle Williams has a really good breakout score, because he did have a pretty good breakout score for like a player that was at the time projected to go like three hundredth overall, like and with the draft capital input that I was using, and so I was like, but you know, you don't need to worry about him right now. Is but I basically said, and I'm like, little did I know? He gets steamed up and then he gets Day two draft capital, like I.

01:07:56
Speaker 2: Could have easily been early on Kyle Williams.

01:07:58
Speaker 1: But I was, I was, I was anchored too much to the way that people were looking at him from a draft capital perspective. So I'm with you, like, I think his profile it's a little bit weird because he's a you know, he stuck around in college, but he had a good breakout age despite sticking around in college and stuff. But yeah, I mean I think he had a good at least from an analytical perspective, he had a pretty good profile well.

01:08:17
Speaker 3: And I think it's interesting too of like maybe leaning into the narrative a little bit, but Washington State had a bunch of players that the coach left, a bunch of players opted out and that last bowl game. How many players actually play in that bowl game? And he went out and he said, no, not only am I going to play, I want to set a Holiday Bowl record. I'm going to cut it up in this game. And then you see him. I remember the Senior Bowl, like Jalen Royals had a whole bunch of excitement at the Senior Bowl. But then there was a side aside that stands out in my mind of their release and it was like Jaden Royals kind of like chopping his feet like one of these like TikTok release type moves, and it was Kyle Williams like one step, I'm gone like see you later. It's just so clean and it's just.

01:08:57
Speaker 2: A professional, a professional wider Sea. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I dig it.

01:09:01
Speaker 3: Man.

01:09:01
Speaker 1: Well this was awesome. I loved hearing some of your takes. I think the listeners will absolutely love it too. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you're working on.

01:09:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, so everything is going to be at football guys, and you can find me on I still call it Twitter because I refuse to not call it Twitter, but for whom j Bell Toles is all my socials, So that's the number four. And then football guys. Right now, myself and Dave Coogie, we're doing the Dynasty Show. We're about to dive in. I'm deep in my projections right now, and last year we're going to run it back. Last year we did divisional previews for each team, kind of leaning into those projections, looking for undervalued players by each division. And that's kind of the biggest thing that we're stepping into right now, getting my projections up and running. And so I'm a CPA. I do taxes, and so I was slam during tax season. I blug in hard to the draft after that, and then after that's over, then I kind of hit the projections and start running into the off season. But that'll be my biggest chunk of content that I'm pushing out next awesome.

01:09:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I definitely recommend you guys give him a follow. He's a great follow. We'll definitely give you guys some great takes. I'm on Twitter, which I still call Twitter as well at late round QB.

01:10:09
Speaker 2: Make sure you're checking out the Prospect Guide and still for.

01:10:11
Speaker 1: Sale of course overrun lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in