Late-Round Perspectives: Denny Carter Returns

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Denny Carter is a fantasy writer and podcaster for NBC Sports Rotal World. He's been creating fantasy content since twenty twelve. He's a dad, He's a very serious youth soccer coach. He's a lovely co host. He's got the best hair routine in the fantasy football space. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. There's no better way to get closer to the action with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first depositive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter Gambler in New York called eight seven seven eight Pope n y in Connecticut called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven sevens having eighteen plus and most stage eligibility shirts apply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. Now back to the show. Hey, it's been a long time. I always talk about this with guests when they come on Lay Round Perspectives. It's great to talk to you because I've never done a show with you before.

00:01:21
Speaker 2: It has been let's see here, twenty four hours since we last did a show for since we did a show together. Yeah, yeah, it's been a long time, long time. It's good to see your face. You two, You too as usual with glasses on, cause please don't take the glasses off. I can't deal with it.

00:01:39
Speaker 1: It is. It is weird, right. I told my wife Amanda about that last night. And so for those of you who don't know, Dunny and I do Living the Stream together. We've done over three hundred episodes of Living the Stream, so we've done it. We've done I mean, this is if you count your other perspective's appearance, you count like other random like shows that we've kind of just like done. We've we've onbably done like three hundred and fifteen shows together through the years. That sounds about, right, something something along those lines. It's twenty twelve, but we did Living the Stream, which is on on the Late Round Fantasy Football youtubes. You guys can check that out. We did Live in the Stream yesterday where that show for those of you who are not aware is like fifteen to twenty percent fantasy football, and the rest is just us talking about random things going on in life as dads.

00:02:24
Speaker 2: Basically, I would put it more at like thirty three percent football.

00:02:28
Speaker 1: Okay, that's fair, that's fair. Yeah, I'm not giving us enough credit.

00:02:32
Speaker 2: Really, maybe we've gotten a little more football lye over the last couple of years.

00:02:36
Speaker 1: You might be right. You might be right. We've been this year, the last the first few weeks of the streaming season, we're rough. We've been cooking the last four or five weeks we have been.

00:02:46
Speaker 2: We have been h I do think folks, you know, in the in the current fantasy landscape, might forget how unique Living the Stream was back in the day. Yeah, as a show where we weren't like, we weren't talking about good players. We were talking about like scraping the bottom of the waiver wire every week, and folks, folks really seemed like that. Of course, you know, you get that from a thousand YouTube shows now, but we were maybe the first.

00:03:16
Speaker 1: I mean I think we were definitely the first people to have a show dedicated to streaming for like, yeah, that's not just like a humble brag thing that's just like facts like this. We started that show in twenty twelve, I think it was, And is that when Zavier was that when your son was born? Yeah, yeah, okay, so we started in twenty twelve. And what I was gonna say is that I took off my glasses on the show or before the show with Denny, and I looked like a completely different person, just completely different. I was talking to my wife about that. How like you can tell when someone wears glasses when they take it off for whatever reason. Similarly, how you can tell when a man had a ponytail and he cut the ponytail.

00:03:49
Speaker 2: Offs, you can always tell.

00:03:50
Speaker 1: You can always tell that he had that ponytail a ponytail. I think it's I think it's a great analogy personally. But yeah, man, I mean, like, it's pretty wild that we've been doing it for as long as we have, and you know, the audience is awesome, the listeners are great. We've had so many like inside jokes stuff that have been created through the years, and I don't know, it's just it's a it's a really cool like niche that we've carved out.

00:04:16
Speaker 2: You know, and within within the space.

00:04:17
Speaker 1: But You're right, Like streaming is just that everybody knows what that means.

00:04:21
Speaker 2: Now.

00:04:21
Speaker 1: You know when we first did it, we I like, people did even know what the tournament.

00:04:24
Speaker 2: We had to explain it, right, I mean, I mean the Zoomers cannot understand this, but we had to be like streaming so because because then people would pop in and be like, I want to stream running back this week, Like nope, nope, nope, that's not how you do it. That's not what we're doing here. We don't stream running back. We stream the onesie the position that too.

00:04:42
Speaker 1: That too. I want to give us credit because people talk say onesie all like I remember the day on the show, like I remember the show. I mean I don't actually remember the exact day. I remember the episode when we said we're going to start calling them onesies because because it was in relation to Xavier who was a year, like you know, his first year of life wearing a onesie, and so we're like, what's call them onesies?

00:05:06
Speaker 2: That's right, by the way, that has infiltrated every single part of the fantasy indursry, right right.

00:05:12
Speaker 1: And I mean, like I'm not saying that we need to like be given credit or anything. I'm just saying, like I'm pretty sure like that, I remember us talking and having that convers If someone can go back and listen to one of the first episodes and find that instance that would be unbelievable, maybe AI can help or something. Somebody will do that.

00:05:26
Speaker 2: I have enjoyed the royalty checks for the onesie stuff.

00:05:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've made hundreds and hundreds of dollars from from I get eleven cents every Thursday. It's awesome. But we've been doing it long enough that it really does add up. It adds up.

00:05:40
Speaker 2: It does.

00:05:42
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's stock fantasy football. We don't need you know, you've been on perspectives, You've been around people, are are people who listen to the show know who you are. You know you now are at are at NBC Sports. You've been at a lot of different places through the years. You know, early on in fantasy football, where did you start writing? Was it? Was it four?

00:06:01
Speaker 2: My first fantasy gig was a freelance thing, yeah, for check Gresham at the Fake Football and then I got in with the four for four guys. There was an outfit called XN Sports that me and Rich Freebar started at. Also sal obviously, and yeah. From there, I got some freelance pieces on rotal World. I think I wrote a couple pieces for you a FanDuel Actually.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you did. You did some stuff a number fire at one point number five, so yeah, I mean I think we were at a fandom company.

00:06:29
Speaker 2: At that point.

00:06:30
Speaker 1: So yeah.

00:06:30
Speaker 2: And then anyway, yeah, it's and then twenty twenty I hooked on with Rohata World, and five years later I am there doing the podcast with Rotopat and Kyle twice a week and writing my stuff. You can find all my stuff on that website and blurbing away. Thankfully, I had to say, not a huge blurb, guy, Yeah, yeah, I can understand. And at first I did blurbs all like pretty much every day of the week, and to pad has had mercy on my soul and uh, and so I only do blurbs a couple of days a week, which is which is uh, which is which is like I said, a mercy And uh, here's the thing though, you do have to keep you have to keep up to date on what's going on, like like I have to know like little injuries, like you know, I have to know about like injuries to like offensive linemen or like critical parts of a secondary right. Yeah, and if I'm not blurbing, I don't. I don't know that, like I don't, I don't just just seek that out, like I have to like immerse myself in it for a couple of days a week to to really like get that feel ahead of you know, Sunday.

00:07:39
Speaker 1: When you are blurbing, though, is it like, uh, you're constantly on for a chunk of time or do you know that the reporting in the NFL happens in certain certain increments and so you're just kind of like on between three and four and then you're like, is that how it works?

00:07:54
Speaker 2: Kind of how's what's that process? Like I do the morning a couple of days a week, which means eight to one, and on this time of year, it's you can't predict, like you like, if you try to predict, you're gonna get stuff into into trouble. You're gonna come back to your computer and be like, oh, I miss like like four ir moves you like Fantasy irrelevant players. So but in the off season it's a little different. I mean, there are there are blurb shifts. I'm not breaking news here, there are blurb shifts where nothing happens.

00:08:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, so is it so when? But like with a blurb shift, it's you're on duty to do these blurbs, but you're also working on other things while that's all going on, and just checking like a like a stream of tweets and stuff or you know whatever.

00:08:36
Speaker 2: We have a list of beat beat writers and stuff. Yeah, yeah, No, I'm not glued to it the whole time. I am working on my articles, I am reading news reports, I am doing important stuff.

00:08:49
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:08:49
Speaker 2: Never the most you never on YouTube, never, never watching David Bowie concerts. Yeah, that's the one thing I don't do.

00:08:58
Speaker 1: You've never done that.

00:09:00
Speaker 2: Never.

00:09:01
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk. I want to ask you some some uh some more high level, you know, just just general fantasy questions before we dig into some some player stuff. But what's something that's happened so far this year? You know, we're seven weeks in that you think is or could be a total mirage just something that fantasy managers see it this way, but but rest of season it could go in the complete opposite direction. I really struggled with this one.

00:09:28
Speaker 2: I mean I spent like a good long time like looking into like fantasy points over expected and all this. You know, these these measurements on on on, you know who might be over overperforming. And I think a lot of the answers are pretty obvious, and so I didn't want to call that out.

00:09:46
Speaker 1: Here's what I.

00:09:47
Speaker 2: Would say, and this is not not like the hottest taking the world. I don't think the Vikings defense is as good as we thought it was to start the season, and I don't think it's going to avoid and if you look at like the PA data in the first three weeks of the season compared to now, it's vastly different. And so I was avoiding the Vikings defense as a matchup for most of my players, you know, most of my like borderline players. But now I'm not afraid. I no longer have that fear of the Vikings. So that's that's the one I came up. You know, it's funny, is that.

00:10:19
Speaker 1: So we're recording this pre Thursday night football, so everyone's aware. Okay, So now, now, Denny, you got to cross your fingers that the Vikings defense doesn't go ballistic tonight. And you're wearing a Chargers hat while you're saying that I'm a homer. Apparently you're you're one of fifteen.

00:10:36
Speaker 2: Chargers fans out there that that really Uh I've been to LA once. That makes me a Chargers fan, right, No.

00:10:44
Speaker 1: I agree though, I mean, like even again, this is a pre Thursday night football take, but you look at the the numbers and it's like, oh, this is like surprisingly not you know, like their rush defense or like justin fantasy puts a lot of running backs and stuff like Kimani Videll. It's not like a you know, got to avoid type matchup that people probably are anchored to and think that it is right.

00:11:04
Speaker 2: Well if also there rush yards given up before contact has jumped over the past like three or four games I forget which it was, so that over that span they're in the top five in rush yards before contact. And that's a metric that I pay pretty close attention to as far as like running back matchups go.

00:11:23
Speaker 1: So yeah, like Vidal is not in a horrible spot. Yeah, there's and we'll see. I mean, obviously it hasn't been a run game that's like really been able to get things going, especially with Almar and Hampton. I mean, I know they played Miami, but that was Miami. But like you know, we'll see what happens tonight. All right, let's move out to Jacksonville.

00:11:40
Speaker 2: Uh huh.

00:11:41
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter has this pretty big game the last time we saw them against the Rams over in London. Do you think it's possible that out of the by we see Travis Hunter as Jacksonville's wide receiver one, Like I don't even mean, because I think wide receiver one in wide receiver two is a little bit overplayed in the way that people just categorize these guys. You know, like Josh Reynolds is the wide receiver one this weekend potentially for the Jets. You know, that's that is not the same as you know, justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase or whomever. But do you think that, like in fantasy football, and from like a target share standpoint and from like a first Reid standpoint, that Travis Hunter could take over as that player for Jacksonville moving forward?

00:12:21
Speaker 2: All right? So in the draft process, I was highly, highly skeptical Travis Hunter as a top five pick, Like I definitely think he should have been a first round pick. But you know, especially like selling the farm like the Millennial GM did for Jacksonville, I.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: Still think is a question mark, like you know, and and giving that capital up for this one player.

00:12:46
Speaker 2: You know, due I feel like I feel like, I mean, it's trending toward being catastrophic. Let's put it that way. It was risky because he didn't command targets at Colorado. And I remember talking to you. I mean, I think we texted about it because I just I just wanted, like to get your feel I talked, I texted with Pat Range just to get a feel for like, am I am?

00:13:05
Speaker 1: I completely insane?

00:13:07
Speaker 2: And you know, your takes were a little more even handed than mine. You know, goes without saying but but but you know, but you you did have some questions I did, you did, and it was reflected in your draft guy, And I thought you did a good job of raising those questions without being like he's a gigabust you know. Yeah, So I don't think that he profiles as that kind of guy, And so I would say no, honestly. Look Parker Washington, when after Brian Thomas left that game against the Rams, Parker Washington was like the air yards dominator in that game. He led Jacksonville with thirty eight percent of the team's air yards against the Rams. Hunter saw twenty one percent. I mean, it was good. The Hunter was targeted on twenty seven percent of his routes. That was by far the highest of the season for him. But I could see a scenario where people are like, wait, wait, wait, why did Parker Washington out target Travis Hunter this week? If Brian Thomas is out with whatever injury.

00:14:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I definitely had my concerns about Travis Hunter's production profile, Like it was weird to me. I think it was just more so. And I said this on the show plenty, Like I was okay with giving him the benefit of the doubt with some of the production metrics because he wasn't like in like getting normal reps and in the in the rooms like game planning, specifically as a wide receiver in college. And that's I mean, and he's playing like some games he'd played like eighty snaps or whatever, like constantly, and so like I gave him the benefit of the doubt, Like, Okay, we can say that his production should have been twenty percent higher based on all this or thirty whatever that.

00:14:42
Speaker 2: Number may be.

00:14:43
Speaker 1: But they're like there were a lot of like like his production just wasn't that good for a first round pick, you know, like it was it was it was a pretty middling production profile, and the thing that like got me was that there were really smart people out there saying that it was the best wide receiver prospect that they ever prospect before. Now with that being said, I think that he looked pretty good last the last time we saw them, and I'm I am at least like cautiously optimistic that something could come from that, just because like if they get the timing down better, like, he's much more of like a I mean, he's a he's a great route runner, like Brian Thomas is not that kind of player, right, And so I think that what you're saying is probably more you know, are you are? Are you optimistic about Brian Thomas? I guess I should ask you, like, is is is that playing a role at all? Or is it just like I'm not optimistic about the Jags offense in general?

00:15:40
Speaker 2: And that's a hard question because I feel like it's hard to measure, like with numbers, what's wrong with the Jags? Right? They could like they clearly are just like miserable. There's just like it's just a miserable team. Brian Thomas hates his life. He seems like it sometimes.

00:15:58
Speaker 1: I mean, he hates it.

00:15:59
Speaker 2: He hates being on this team, he hates catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. And so I think that the vibe, the vibes are just rancid for Brian Thomas. He's not really trying, you know, the very very little effort for Brian Thomas this season.

00:16:14
Speaker 1: So, I don't know, I don't.

00:16:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's I think he can be great, you know, if you give him a legit quarterback, and I think that he is. He is in such hell right now that I don't know if I can say, like, oh, I expect great things from him going forward. I think both of these guys, I think both Hunter and Thomas are probably going to disappoint overall this season. It is good to see, I mean, it's great to see Hunter like get involved a little bit.

00:16:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's I mean, you're you're more than welcome to saying that you don't like Travis Hunter as much as other people do rest of season. I mean, if that's not that's not an unfair take to have, Like it's your take. Yeah, I don't.

00:16:51
Speaker 2: I just I've continued skepticism that he is like like a viable, like high end fantasy receiver. And and I remember the comps that you're talking about, and it freaked me out because I had written this piece horrible. The comps were horrible for him, and and the comps were like, well, Justin Jefferson, If Justin Jefferson were good, that's that's who he is. And I'm like, well, what wait are you? Are you guys serious? Like he's Justin Jefferson. I just wrote this thing about like how I don't know if he like, is that all that good? And uh and no, the answer is no, he's not Justin Jefferson. And and I remember looking at Justin Jefferson's profile and you have you have the Jamar Chase thing mixed in there, and I get that, but but there there were very very few comps I felt like actually made sense statistically.

00:17:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was really really hard. I think even like John Ross was a comp, I can't remember the exact comps from the prospect guy. So I don't want to. I don't want to, like, you know, misspeak here. But look, look, Travis Hunter was the wide receiver one in the ZAP model this year because of the draft capital and but the draft Capitol also did know that he was drafted that high because he plays defense, you know, so like that's that's part of like it was a it was just a really really tough evaluation. I'm trying to stay optimistic because I you know, I'm seeing some things. I think that he is a I think he is a really good route runner, and I do think that he can create that separation. And part of me, if I if I'm gonna give you the glass half full perspective of this Jags offense, part of me genuinely, in my heart of hearts, believes that like so much stuff just like has not aligned with the Jags offense. Like when when number one, we all know at this point that that Jags have the most drops in fun like it's just like it's a there's a relatively decent gap there. Why does that happen? I know That's That's what I'm trying to get to. I think part of that is definitely Trevor Law. Like, I don't think drops are only on the wide receiver all the time, right, you also are you need the quarterback to throw to the open guy. But I do think that there has been this like intersection of Trevor Lawrence having a great throw and the wide receiver is not prepared, or the wide receiver getting wide open and having a great route when Trevor Lawrence then just just throws a duck right, and that stuff has just been happening. Like when I watch the Jags, I'm like, this offense is built strongly, Like I like what they're doing schematically. I've been saying this for like weeks, but then these things just aren't aligning, and it's so bizarre how it seems to happen so frequently only for this team. And maybe at some point I just got to be like, that's because this isn't it, you know, Like it's just not like they don't have the right personallysis just isn't working with Trevor Lawrence. I get all that, but I'm still like, you know what, what I'm seeing each week, I'm like, they just feel so close, and that's why I don't want to give up.

00:19:45
Speaker 2: They do they do singing clothes. I like Cohen. I think Cohen knows what he's doing. I also think Cohen is like very clearly frustrated with Trevor Lawrence and I but there's no way around that, Like you can't bench the guy. He's not a billion dollars, like he can't you know.

00:20:02
Speaker 1: But you know, it was a joke in the off season. I'm sure you.

00:20:05
Speaker 2: You you heard it, maybe you even said it. It was a joke like, well, Brian Thomas needed Mac Jones.

00:20:13
Speaker 1: Yeah right, it was. It was a meme basically, yeah, oh Mac goo.

00:20:17
Speaker 2: Sure some people believed it, but yeah, yeah, But then now in October of the next year, we're like, well, yeah.

00:20:24
Speaker 1: Maybe it wasn't just a meme.

00:20:26
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:20:26
Speaker 1: I also think that like Brian Thomas, you know, this is obviously hindsight, but he's a player who you know, needed to still develop a little bit more as a more well rounded receiver. Like he was doing a lot like a lot of his like production and you know, obviously we're going to look at yards per out run and first downs per out run and you know, just general raw fantasy production. A lot of it was like big play driven, and you know, him being able to use that athleticism and to beat defenders when he needed. He still needed to develop more, But I think the assumption would be that he would be able to and I don't think that that has happened yet.

00:21:00
Speaker 2: No, No, I mean it's a little Josh Gordon syndrome. I mean they could be a little remember that. Yeah, zoomers zoomers run Yeah where I mean like Josh Gordon was like not like out there running spectacular routes, Like he was just big and fast and they would throw it up to him. I do think that that's one thing, Trevor, if you're listening, just throw it, man.

00:21:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, like, don't be apprehensive, just kind of just go after it.

00:21:28
Speaker 2: Like we talked. Did did we talk on limits stream about like Kobe Brissette has nothing to lose? Right?

00:21:33
Speaker 1: We mentioned that? Yeah? I mean who we talked about someone? Oh Joe Flacco we were talking about has nothing to lose.

00:21:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, I thought about that because it's a good point. I mean, Trevor Lawrence doesn't have a lot to lose either. He's he's set, like he's set with his job unless and until he completely unravels. So I mean, just just just let it go sometimes, like it doesn't have to be perfect every time. I feel like he's just waiting for like the per ficked opportunity to throw it to Brian Thomas Downfield and that Brian Thomas doesn't need that. Mac Jones last year would just throw it up. Brian thom Is down there somewhere, you know, right, Yeah, I mean, let's hope they can figure things out during this buy. Let's move on to a mechg Buka. How high should people be viewing him rest of season?

00:22:19
Speaker 1: And then doing this, I'm gonna do what I've been doing on perspectives and giving you this or that scenario of who you'd rather have rest of season, to give people an idea of where you're thinking and how you're viewing a mechic Buka. So we'll start out with a fellow rookie wide receiver. We'll say, who do you want rest of season in fantasy? A mechic Buka or Teteroa McMillan A Buka? Yeah, yeah, I think it's a I feel pretty good about Abuka. There, AJ Brown or a mechg Buka.

00:22:46
Speaker 2: Ah Man, I guess Abuka, But like you know, the air yards be air yard and in Philadelphia all of a sudden, So that's it.

00:22:56
Speaker 1: I actually did a mail bag that I recorded, like it's all done again. We're recording this on Thursday, so you haven't even had a chance to listen the mailbag. But on the mailbag they asked about someone asked about DeVante Smith, and I was digging more into the Eagles offense. They've been from like a dropbacks per game perspective, like above average since we since week two. I mean like, I feel like there's a big, big, like dissonance between and anchoring bias, if you will, of like how the market and how fantasy managers view the Eagles offense and how run heavy they are versus actuality, which is they've they've they've been relatively pass heavy.

00:23:37
Speaker 2: They've been at points very pass heavy. They had a game earlier this season where they were twenty two percent above their expected.

00:23:44
Speaker 1: Pass right exactly exactly.

00:23:45
Speaker 2: And yeah, in the regression files which you can find on roatal World, I actually looked at total team air yards for a bunch of teams and how it's changed. Cardinals much different. Obviously with Brissett. The Eagles have been vastly, vastly different the past three weeks. It just like it opens up opportunities for these guys to bust out. I guess I guess I would take a buka just because there's always the the chance of the Eagles, uh trying to establish again. I mean their fans hate this stuff. Their fans hate throwing the ball like they they want to give it to Saquon Barkley thirty times the game.

00:24:20
Speaker 1: How about a mecha Buca or Nico Collins who obviously you know Nico can cuss right now and there's stuff going on. But Abuka.

00:24:29
Speaker 2: I don't want anybody in that Texans offense.

00:24:31
Speaker 1: It's it's rough. Although I am excited about Jalen Nole this weekend, potentially in a good slot matchup, I hope he gets more run. But that's just a sleepered thing. It's not, you know, like a like an ever week starter thing, right, Roma Dunza or a mecha Buka. I mean Rome's a running cold. You mentioned this on trends.

00:24:48
Speaker 2: I think transactions this week, Yeah, transactions I own, you know.

00:24:53
Speaker 1: Last week I talked about about him on trends and then this week I did bring them up as a buy on transactions. But yes, like his catchbull tartrate's been horrible over those like basically since week two.

00:25:04
Speaker 2: I I've looked strongly into the numbers, and Caleb Williams is better in some ways, he's not taking sacks. His pressure to sack ratio was off the freaking charts last year.

00:25:16
Speaker 1: That's no longer the case. That's good. That's good.

00:25:18
Speaker 2: That's good from like a real, real football standpoint and somewhat fantasy. But like he's still like not accurate at all.

00:25:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's still and he's really bad Aga zone too, Like I I he has no touch like you watch him and he's just throwing these like rockets and like every every every shot he has, and yeah, him.

00:25:38
Speaker 2: And Justin Herbert just throw the same ball no matter what, like come on, man, like like get put some touch on it, like like what look how watch how like mahomes like kind of sometimes like lobs it in there like do that once in a while. But anyway, so Douneesday's running cold, and I don't really see like a great path out of out of that situation because Caleb Williams is still going to be his quarterback. In Caleb Williams miss is a lot of throws he should make. I would take a Buca over.

00:26:08
Speaker 1: How about Davante Adams.

00:26:11
Speaker 2: Oh, that's a good one, because us to assume Pooka's back after they're by which I think is probably what like eighty percent chance, if not higher. Yeah, yeah, I might lean Adams, how about you.

00:26:26
Speaker 1: I'm I'm Agbuka over over at him, but it's not I mean, it's not like dramatic. I think. I think the the interesting line is when you get to like Drake London. Oh yeah, I would go London, would you? So I have I have a Buka I think one spot ahead. So it's that That's where I think is like where we're at. Part of that is like I think that the Darnell Mooney splits are probably a little bit overrated by people because like London with and without Mooney has been pretty dramatic so far this year, but you know, it's small sample stuff and I don't want to take that too far. And I think Drake London is just like a phenomenal Like I think he's just really really good and he is people get really frustrated with him, but I'm pretty confident that he's just like a really good player. I just go like Buka just because I'm using environment a little bit as the tiebreaker, and I just trust Baker a little bit more, not a little bit more, a lot more than Michael Pennix.

00:27:16
Speaker 2: Let's let's be real about Penis horrible.

00:27:19
Speaker 1: Here we go, there's there's the fire take. Yeah, he's been He's at least been incredibly incredibly inconsistent, and the downs are much much greater slash more frequent than the ups for him.

00:27:30
Speaker 2: I mean, I do appreciate that Zach Robinson tweaked the offense coming out of their bye week so that they weren't so predictable because they were doing that thing where like if they were in shotgun, they passed only and if they were under center, they ran. They mixed that up and the bills against the bills and and that that seemed to work since they ran for five hundred yards on the ground. Pennix, I think is like a game manager type. Some of his throws are so wild it's actually like frightening. And then but then he has like he has an arm like he can do it's crazy.

00:28:04
Speaker 1: Yeah. Right, So like there's that, like you can see like the raw potential. But yeah, I mean, so far from a descriptive standpoint, I don't think he's really.

00:28:12
Speaker 2: Been it this year. And also this team, like in neutral script, is so run heavy that it makes you like talking about like environmental factors for London, you know, like you kind of wonder, like we can talk all day about Oh, Drake Glendon saw thirty eight percent target share, what does that mean?

00:28:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, seven targets, eight targets sometimes, sure, let's keep with the Tampa Bay Wide receiver room. Do you have any hope for Chris Godwin? And then as a follow up, like, are you are you amped about Tess Johnson or are you like he's he's fine, He's a good sleeper waiver wire fill in for bye weeks kind of guy.

00:28:48
Speaker 2: The fact that Todd Bowles came out on Tuesday and was like yeah, yeah, no, no god Win this week. You know that's not good. I know they have a buy coming out and.

00:28:58
Speaker 1: They've been like that with Jayleen McMillan too, where people forgot people forget that Jayalen McMillan even exists. At this point. McMillan is still in a in a neck breeze. Yeah right, it's I mean he had that it was a horrible injury in the preseason. But like that, we just have no idea. What's base. I don't think it's coming soon, you know, because we have no idea. We would usually have someone.

00:29:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that there's a chance that Godwin missus like not not the rest of the season, but a lot of it. Yeah. And then you know, as for TZ, I mean you kind of know what you're getting there. Fourteen are yards per target, you know, like a downfield guy that Baker seems to trail. Baker is like one of like five quarterbacks who's willing to actually throw it downfield into coverage. Yeah. So that's that's good for a guy like Tedes Johnson, but you know, you play him in twelve teen leagues, you're sometimes going to feel pretty silly because you know, if the long one doesn't hit, you're not going to get much.

00:29:55
Speaker 1: I also think Tes, like I've said this about the Buccaneers for the last like year or so, but they don't care about wide receiver alignment at all. Tes Johnson was an eighty seven percent slot guy in college, right small frame, I mean, smallest dude in the NFL, basically playing the slot a lot. They did the exact same thing with Jalen McMillan last year. People profiled a Mecha Buka as a slot mostly slot player coming out like there was a lot of that in Tampa Bay's like, no, we just want gamers. We just want dudes that we like. And to their credit, they've gotten They've gotten more out of tes Johnson than I think thirty other teams could probably get out of him in my you know, And it's it's just crazy. I said this in the mailback too, But it's crazy because you get a player like tes who ninety percent plus of teams if not more, would automatically throw them in the slot as a slot only player, like only eleven personnel. He's only playing the slot. He's only had forty seven percent of his rounds from the slot this year. And meanwhile, you look at Indianapolis and Josh Downs can't play a perimeter route. Jaden Reid one of the most efficient wide receivers over the last couple of years. He can't play anything outside Like you have these teams who would never ever do this with a player like Johnson. Which is why I want to just give Tampa Bay props for how they've handled all of this, how they drafted a mechic Buka when people are like, well, this isn't and I know that they paid Chris Godwin and that was probably a mistake just given what we know now about what's going on with Godwin. But overall, like I want to give Tampa Bay props with how they've handled their wide receiver situation and Baker and all that, because the passing attack is still something that we're like, yeah, let's let's let's let's invest in this in fantasy football, despite like, look at the passing attack, you know, it just doesn't make any sense.

00:31:42
Speaker 2: The Bucks run their team like a family organization.

00:31:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've done a great job of that.

00:31:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know, I don't know if that's like the winning strategy there, like, you know, like the whole you know, like Chris Godwin takes a pay cut to stay there one year and then they give him a monster, pretty pretty big contract after his ankle turns the other way on the field, Like their whole like identity is wrapped up in Mike Evans getting a thousand yards a season, right, right, So I get like they they really really like their their receivers, and but I don't I don't know if that's the great way to run the team. But you are saying you are correct and saying that not just pigeonholing guys into a slot or a boundary guy and that works. I mean, Tess Johnson is gonna have some big games here, like right right.

00:32:29
Speaker 1: That's that's it. Yeah, it's just gonna be it was probably gonna be kind of frustrating, right, Like it's gonna be frustrating, but man, you're gonna feel so good when it's like it's gonna be like, oh my god, what Tesz Jensen went for one hundred and fifty and two getting.

00:32:43
Speaker 2: Read just just a couple of big plays. Let's move on to James Cook.

00:32:48
Speaker 1: Are you nervous about that pre bye week usage? Do you think that we should be looking at him still as a as an RB one or is he a high end two?

00:32:58
Speaker 2: Like?

00:32:58
Speaker 1: Where are you at with Cook? Probably still one? But I did.

00:33:03
Speaker 2: I was having a good time through the season's first month with people saying James Cook immune to regression. He's you know, people said all summer James Cook is going to regress. He ain't regressing. What's going on with that? And you know you're just saying, well, the regression reaper is coming, man, like you like you know this, like we know this. Have you not played fantasy football before? And then and then the Reaper got there eventually. So James Cook scored on almost seven percent of his carries from Week one to four. He hasn't scored a touchdown on his past thirty three carries. His usage is not great, like a forty two percent route rate on the season. He's been targeted on fifteen percent of those routes. Here's something disturbing too, as far as like as far as like being gamescript sensitive, James Cook has one total target in the Bills two losses this season. Yeah, like what like yeah, so like if they're losing, he's completely eliminated from the game plan. I think I guess that. That's That's what I'm hearing. That's what I'm hearing in my earpiece right now. My fear.

00:34:09
Speaker 1: I still think that, like you said, I still think he's an RB one. If you want to look at this as like a like where could this go south? Joe Brady after I think week four or so, like James Cook was just cooking, Like he was just destroying everybody, and he had like a ninety something percent running back rush share that week and that like that's the other thing is that his running back rush share for the first half of the first month of the season was way higher than where he's ever been in his career, you know, and that helped to counter the regression exactly. And that's the thing that people like, it's not just like oh, like you got to look at it from like a like, you know, the big picture of the whole picture. Joe Brady came out and he said that they need to get other players involvedmore, like Ray Davis involved a little bit more, and they they kind of have, and that to me is the fear. But I do think that after they lost to Atlanta the way that they did that coming out the bye, they could say to themselves, we need to use like why did we not use him more? Like, because that game it was just like insane that James Cook wasn't seeing more work in a game where they needed offensive production. So, you know, that's the optimistic way of looking at this is that they need to use them more. But then the pessimistic way is like they they openly talked about not using him as much, and they started not using him as much, and then, like you said, when these scripts go certain ways, it's scary for Cook, you know, like it's it's just not as as clean as when we have these really nice game scripts.

00:35:32
Speaker 2: I mean, he should be fine, like in Week A because they're playing the Panthers. They're heavy favorites, so the game script shouldn't be an issue there. But you know, they go up against a like a good team and it might be a thing where you're you're just you're hoping that he gets there before things go sound and the Bills. The Bill's defense doesn't help either. You know, we have to realize how bad that that Buffalo defense is. It's still banged up. Defensive starters are still not practicing ahead of Week eight, and you know, so if you have a bad defense, I mean asked like Derrick Henry about like how the Ravens defense collapsing has been for him. Yeah, you know, he's not seeing the ball as much. He's not seeing that good game script. So that's a worry too.

00:36:16
Speaker 1: So bizarre too, because James Cook came out as a prospect is like being a pass like like we thought that he would just be a pass catcher and there's not he looks the part.

00:36:24
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:36:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about justin fields. I have something that I think is like a just good discussion. We talked about it a little bit on Living the Stream yesterday. So some of you might have heard this, but do you think the Jets go back to Justin Field at some point this year? And then my follow up question to this was he actually a bad redraft pick. And this is the game theory side that I do want to dig into because I think that it's controversial and people will definitely disagree and they'll yell at me and potentially you if you agree. But I think it's a good conversation to have. So let's talk about Justin Fields.

00:36:56
Speaker 2: We yeah, talked about it on LTS a little bit, but no, Fields was a fine pick. Like I guess I was used to drafting in like sicco leagues where Fields would go much earlier than he would in more casual leagues. You were saying that he would go you know, ten, twelveth rounds, sometimes further down than that. Right, So if you got him and he won two or maybe three games for you, like single handedly to start the season, you know you got what you paid for. Like that's it, you know. On the season, even after the catastrophe against the Broncos and then struggling against the Panthers and being benched, Fields is still tenth and fantasy fantasy points per drop back. Yeah, it's crazy.

00:37:39
Speaker 1: From week one to four he was first.

00:37:41
Speaker 2: He was averaging zero point eight five fantasy points per drop back, like basically scoring a fantasy point every time he dropped back.

00:37:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's crazy.

00:37:51
Speaker 2: Well, you know, can he get back there? I'm not going to say no because it's because because of the rushing. It's a game within a game. We have to remember that even if he stinks through the air, even if he's like terrible for Garrett Wilson and the rest of these guys, he can still get there because of the rushing. And I don't see Tyrod Taylor's a guy who.

00:38:09
Speaker 1: Can like.

00:38:11
Speaker 2: Last the rest of the season. Like, you know, he's kind of kind of frail, kind of old. You know, it doesn't run much in anywhere. He had a knee scope in the summer. He's struggling with the knee.

00:38:21
Speaker 1: Now.

00:38:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, fields don't drop fields, is what I'm saying.

00:38:24
Speaker 1: Yeah. My so, like the the redraft question, like the you know, was he a worthwhile pick or was he a I don't want to say that he was a worthwhile pick. I don't want people to walk away from the saying that, like JJ thinks that he was a good pick, I don't think he was a good pick. I'm saying that I don't think he was nearly as bad of a pick as you know, because I've gotten people like trolling me this week because I liked Fields as like a late round pick this year. And my stance is, if you look at how things have gone down for Fields. Okay, first three or first four games, three of the four were like league winning weeks at quarterback that like, you know, we're talking like twenty five plus points consistently. The other one he got hurt against Buffalo, so that hurt you. So first four games, three of the four he was great for you. One of them he was not great. Okay, then you go into that game against Denver, and there's a very real possibility that the majority or a lot of Justin Field's managers did not start him against Denver, which you know, I went on the Late Round Fantasy Football show and I said that he was going to s the B that week. And then you know, then after that happens, you're not going to be as confident playing him against Carolina, right and where last week, you know I was ranking him as a QB two, like a pretty firm QB two, where there would be a lot of other options ahead of him. So let's just say hypothetically that you just played him the first four weeks of the season, which I did in many, like in a couple leagues where I shouldn't say many, in a couple leagues where I have him. I played him only in those first four games. And if you're getting three really really good performances out of four games, one of them being kind of mid for a twelfth plus round pick, which is where he ended up going in a lot of these like more home leagues and stuff, which is what the advice is gonna be catered towards. I don't think that's really that bad of a pick. And at the end of the day, do I think that it was a good pick. No, But I don't think it's like this disaster that everyone's gonna frame it as. And then someone had also responded to me, based on what we talked about on Living the Stream, saying that he's a better best ball pick than season long pick. I disagree with that entirely because now he's not playing, like in Bestball, you need your quarterback to be playing all the time, Like that's the when they get hurt. Like Joe Burrow going down is horrific for not just because of his draft capital, but because teams, some teams who drafted Joe Burrow might have only taken two quarterbacks in and so like they're now screwed because they only have that one quarterback to rely on. But with fields in a season long league, you can make up for not like you're not taking a zero every week from justin fields. Like now you can go to Living the stream and listen to the quarterbacks that we're recommending and or on the later podcast on the Sleeper Show and say, okay, yeah, I can get at some replacement level production. Like this year we're streaming a low end QB one, which is what we've done over the last five years or so. Now that we have these unicorns a quarterback that are really tough to match, right, Yeah, it's a different environment. Yeah, it's a different environment. Like back in twenty fifteen, we were streaming literal QB fives in points per game, you know, QB four. But now it's it's just a little bit different. It's a little bit more difficult, but even still, that's that's usable production, right, Like you can go out and you can get another quarterback and that's fine. And I just see the justin Fields thing as no different than you entering a season wanting to stream and getting really really great production from that quarterback and then you're like, oh, okay, well the streak is over, We're gonna have to go to another quarterback, you know. Like it's when you're talking like true double digit round picks, which is he dropped after he had that injury in the preseason. He never got back to his original ADP. And so that's my stance. I don't think it was a good pick. I'm not trying to say isn't cope, That's not what this is. I'm just saying this is the game theory way, Like this is. This is how I think about fantasy football. It's a weekly game.

00:41:59
Speaker 2: It's a it's a orderly game.

00:42:00
Speaker 1: You're in the you're in this next quarter where you don't have to really worry about like at a replaceable position, you should always be striving for that upside.

00:42:08
Speaker 2: I will say this about the fields thing. It hurts way more in super flex because I haven't been one super flex league and it's not fun. Yes, I mean I had to that's the mistake. I had to reach, reach, reach to get Justin Fields in a couple of super flex leagues. And it felt great about it, honestly, Like like coming out of the draft, I was like, oh, like they don't even know, they don't even know what they just gave me. And then, you know, for the first three seat three weeks, I'm like, oh, okay, like we're cooking now, but now I've basically lost my second round pick.

00:42:42
Speaker 1: Yeah right, right, yeah, I think yeah, I had them in a super flex league two And that's that's a mistake. Like that, That is the Obviously it's a high variance pick with huge upside, sure sure and super flex. It's just different from a strategy stample. You got to get guys who you know are going to keep their job, you know, and you run the risk when when if you wait a little bit, or if you do you spend up, like whatever the case may be. You run the risk whenever you're getting a guy like Fields or Geno or even maybe maybe Bryce Young, you know, like just players like that where there's a capable enough backup or that player just might not be it like you run that risk, and that's the risk in super flex. That's the most frustrating and tough part of super flex is that it is you.

00:43:19
Speaker 2: Really have to put yourself out there. I will say, I, you know, commend myself for having my Jackson Dart no matter what they had too on my forearm in super flex formats, because that that has helped soften the blow.

00:43:34
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, it's helped me in best ball, that's for sure. Let's talk about the Chiefs and Rashid Rice being back. Do you have any concern about Xavier Worthy rest of season? I've had some interesting conversations about him this week because I was pretty I was lower than consensus with his rest of season ranking. It was like seven spots below and I can see both sides. So I want you to just give me some more takes on Xavier Worthy because I don't really you know, I'm not like, oh, really confident because I know where his range of outcomes lie.

00:44:02
Speaker 2: But at the same time, I'm like, I mean, look at what's gone on so far this year. Could we have gotten a worse game in Week seven? In as far as like determining how these Chiefs receivers are going to be used. It's a fair point. Yeah, you know, the game was over by halftime, the starters were benched at the end of the third quarter.

00:44:21
Speaker 1: They just ran forever, you know.

00:44:23
Speaker 2: So you can you can pour through that week seven data and find almost almost nothing like that's real, right, because you have Rachie Rice being targeted on almost sixty percent of his routes in week seven.

00:44:35
Speaker 1: Have you seen anything like that before? I don't think, I know, it's insane.

00:44:39
Speaker 2: Oh I did I No, No, we have JSN in week one.

00:44:42
Speaker 1: That that's very true. Yeah, sixty target perrown.

00:44:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, so Worthy was targeted on fifteen percent of his route before Rice returned to the Kansas City lineup Worthy was targeted on twenty five percent of his routes. But again, it's it's it's hard to make like its determination based on that data, based on that horrible, weird game script. I mean, I gotta say, like overall, it can't be good for Worthy that that Rashi Rice comes in and immediately is like force fed the football, especially in the red zone in the green zone.

00:45:17
Speaker 1: Yes, like that's that's that's probably not good. That's that's that's where I'm at. I'm like, we have that small split last year with Travis kelce where I mean, I think anyone is nervous about Travis kelcey with Rashi Rice, but with Xavier Worthy, he didn't really come on till the second half of the year, and he was a rookie, so we can give him a little grace for not being able to like perform to start the year. My thing is just that red zone stuff like you talked about, Like Rashi Rice has so much touchdown potential because of how creative they are, you know, at the goal line and stuff like they'll throw the ball at the one and they're the only team that'll do that consistently, you know, yea, and Xavier like you have to worry a little bit about like what Xavier Worthies touchdown equity would be outside of some big plays or some like you know, a screen that it's a mistackle and he uses his speed to be able to break a big one. My fear is just that this is going to be pretty volatile for him, that there's not that that floor even though they're in such a good offense, that floor isn't as strong as what we would hope it would be.

00:46:14
Speaker 2: I mean, can I say something about xavery Worthy and you probably won't agree, but I'm just gonna say it anyway. He feels gadgety Ooh, Okay, I feel I feel like he's He's not a total gadget player. He's not Marvin Mims, but he's starting he's starting to feel gagety. I mean, he had a great super Bowl sort of because that was mostly in the fourth quarter in garbage time, but his usage is not. It does not make me think that you know, he can get there every single week just based on based on like easy button stuff like it's always like this like massive, massive team wide effort to get the ball to zavery Worthy a few times a game. Yeah, and that that to me is a red flag. The other thing with.

00:46:57
Speaker 1: Worthy that I and I mean, you could apply this to Test Johnson in two Okay, they're they're smaller wide receivers, right. I liked Worthy coming out as a prospect. I still think he's a good player, but strictly from a fantasy perspective, I think the best smaller wide receiver example that we have is like a DeShawn Jackson right from in like recent era, you know, modern history and even from a fantasy perspective, like Deshan Jackson had his moments, don't get me wrong, Like he had decent seasons and stuff, but never were we talking about DeShawn Jackson as like an elite player in fantasy football, right right, And that to me is where the ceiling thing comes to play, right Like, and if if I'm worried a little bit about the floor of the player, then then and then and then I think about like that archetype of player that he is. There's a very real chance that Xavier Worthy in like a five or six week stretch could go ballistic because because he could just variantly just be on his side where he's like catching four bombs ever, you know, every five weeks or something like that, and he pays off. So like that's why I can't ful fade. And that's why I think he's definitely a better and bestball kind of player. And I was still drafting him in best ball. But from like a managed season long perspective, I do think it's going to be frustrating. Like I genuinely think that it's just a frustrating player to have.

00:48:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, congrats to those who still draft to Receis Race. I think you you have a league winner on your hands.

00:48:16
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, easy wide receiver one for me. Do you have any hope for Ricky Pierson and Juwan Jennings?

00:48:22
Speaker 2: Uh?

00:48:23
Speaker 1: Kinda?

00:48:23
Speaker 2: I wanted to say on Pierceau, his usage was not what I thought. What I thought it wasn't And tell me if if you had expected this or something like this. But he was third overall, like overall in the league in air yards through three games, he was seeing about fifty percent of the forty nine ers air yards? Was that the kind of profile that you expected, not necessarily like when he was coming out.

00:48:48
Speaker 1: I liked him because he was versatile, and Kyle Shanahan can get a lot out of versatility from players like he did with Debo for so long. And I thought there was a chance that he could like kind of play like get some end of rounds and could could catch some some screens and do some work after the catch, like he's he's got that dog in them, like he's he's a he's a he's a good player that perspective and a good route runner. I think that that was sort of like the default though for them to start the year, like there's not he's the only guy that could do some of that stuff because everyone else was banged up. And so that that's what I thought.

00:49:20
Speaker 2: At least on it.

00:49:21
Speaker 1: It's not that I hate that.

00:49:22
Speaker 2: I mean, we like our guys getting downfield shots and and you know, those sort of opportunities just to to score, you know, lots of fancy points on chunk plays. I'm just I'm just saying like I would like some some more easy button stuff mixed in there. And that wasn't seeing that really for Pearsol. Maybe that changes when he returns, whenever that might be, you know. As for as for Jennings, I find it hard hard to evaluate because he's so banged up, broken ribs, like two sprained ankles.

00:49:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I mean, I imagine how high his ankle sprain must be.

00:49:55
Speaker 2: They're so high, you know, they're getting higher all the time if they're up his hip. Reportedly, Yeah, he's averaging ten expected Fantasy points per game, which obviously is not great, not not great at all. His target part route run from last year was pretty crazy. This is twenty seven percent.

00:50:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, what was it? It was absurd? Like all yea, his peripherals were nasty last year.

00:50:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a nineteen percent this year, and that's without Kittle. I I just I feel like the injuries make it hard to evaluate. I have more hope for Pearceol I think than I do for Jennings.

00:50:31
Speaker 1: My thing too, And this is definitely vibes based, and this is not, you know, the most typical take for me. But I do wonder how much quarterback tendency has to do with what's going on with like Juwan Jennings, you know, like like maybe Brock just is like just meshes with him. Well yeah, And I mean, look, last week, Jennings had a thirty percent target share, Like he still was good, Like he was getting looks, he just didn't do much with them. He had like thirty yards or whatever. But like I do wonder what might happen if Brock per like when Perty is back and taking over this offense. That that, to me is the piece of optimism for for Jennings.

00:51:05
Speaker 2: That's a that's a that's a good point. Also, like this, the domination of cmc oh my god, in the passing game makes it makes it hard for for the rest of these guys to do anything. I mean, you know, he saw Kittle zero was he targeted.

00:51:21
Speaker 1: Uh, yes too, I think who target Yeah, first time without a catchdown in his career.

00:51:26
Speaker 2: That's bleak. That's bleak.

00:51:27
Speaker 1: That's crazy. Let's talk about some rookie running backs before I ask you the standard bold prediction question. I'm gonna go one by one with some rookie running backs. You tell me your general outlook for them rest of the season, and you can even give me a confidence out of ten if you want to, and just give me, give me some vibes based confidence of these guys.

00:51:47
Speaker 2: Ja Cory Krossky Merit, I'm I'm still in. I'm still in. I'm gonna go. I'll go as as far as confidence points go, I'll go seven.

00:51:56
Speaker 1: Okay, Trayvon Henderson.

00:52:01
Speaker 2: The thing with Travyon is that even if Stevenson gets dinged up and misses time, Yeah, I can almost guarantee you Trevan Henderson is not going to be the lead back.

00:52:12
Speaker 1: Probably you're you're You're probably right, You're probably correct. And so what do you have?

00:52:18
Speaker 2: You have a guy who I don't know, like, might not shouldn't be rostered in most leagues. So I'd say my confidence is like zero point zero one for Henderson.

00:52:29
Speaker 1: I sent a tweet out this week that said, uh so, the Fantasy footballers do their MVP show every year, and I participated in every year, and you know, some hit some misses whatever. This year, I was down to three guys before I did the show. Okay, it's down to three players. A mechic Buca was one, which which isn't a surprise, Drake May was one, which isn't a surprise, and Travon Henderson was the other one. And guess which one I picked. I don't know. And it's funny, like the thought process. Well, I don't want to do Drake May because quarterback is kind of boring to do as like an MVP pick. And then I didn't want to do Iguka because people were so sick of me talking about Iguka after I did that Roma Dunzag Buka thing over the off season, and so I went with Travion and I regret it immensely. I was high on Travion, don't get me wrong, but I just regret saying he would be the MVP obviously of the season. My thing with him, and I'll still say it. I still think it's true they're not deploying him properly. They're they're running him up the gut whenever he gets his opportunities. And some of that is I think his confidence, Like he's not playing confidently at all. He's very unshure of like himself and like what to do, and it's it's bizarre. It's almost like, yeah, like he's just in his own head. But they need to get him out in space and let him use his athleticism and speed and his pass catching ability to do more there. The game last week Aainst, Tennessee was just not the script for that, you know. I don't think the game against Cleveland is the script for that either. But I still holding onto some hope that he gets it together between the ears, because the talent profile was really good coming out, Like it was a really really strong profile. I thought we had James White, you know, yeah, right, like a very or like a Kevin Falk at the very least, you know, yeah, like yeah, just someone who like would just fall into five catches a week, Yeah right right right. RJ. Harvey, he was a look. R J. Harvey's one that I did have some concerns, like prospect profile wise, but he's still performing a lot worse than what I thought, so where where's your confidence with him?

00:54:33
Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's entirely contingent on JK. Dobbins remaining healthy. But honestly, again, like with Henderson, if Dobbins goes down, I very much doubt that R J. Harvey instantly becomes the RB one in Denver, like a.

00:54:49
Speaker 1: Seventy five percent running back rush are player or something like that.

00:54:53
Speaker 2: I think I think Tyler Bday mixes into a horrifying extent.

00:54:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, Julil McLoughlin will get some yeah, I mean, but if Dobbin's goes down, r J. Harvey is going to get a boost.

00:55:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, a boost, Yeah, a boost you're saying.

00:55:04
Speaker 1: You're saying like bell cow like like legit, like tons and tons of works.

00:55:08
Speaker 2: So if Dobbins went down, I actually think RJ. Harvey would take the Dobbins role, and then the Day would take the Harvey role right right, because they seemed to like they seem to value Bedat as the pass catcher. But so yeah, I guess confidence is like five because I mean, he's he's in an ugly split. The matchup has to be just right. I feel like for him to see volume.

00:55:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, Travon Henderson and RJ. Harvey are two pretty disappointing players this year. I mean it's bad. The Broncos were obsessed with RJ.

00:55:39
Speaker 2: Harvey in the pre draft process to the point where they were like sending out like intentionally mixed signals to other teams about like not liking right right, Like they were so intent on drafting them.

00:55:52
Speaker 1: So they go ahead, they get.

00:55:53
Speaker 2: Them, They get we got our guy.

00:55:55
Speaker 1: They see him once in spring practices and they were like.

00:55:58
Speaker 2: Ah, shoot, we got to get a veteran in here.

00:56:03
Speaker 1: The thing is the thing with Harvey. I was in on both of Harvey and Dobbins this year.

00:56:07
Speaker 2: I've probably a little bit more.

00:56:08
Speaker 1: I mean not probably, I am more overweight on Dobbins just because of cost, but like I was still in on Harvey. I think Harvey's at least shown us more than like a Travion has, because Treyman hasn't had opportunity to really like again show us what he can do in space all that kind of stuff. He just hasn't been there. And Harvey's at least been able to like show that off, show off a speed at times like we've on least seen it. So I think that's why.

00:56:30
Speaker 2: There should be more confidence just from him with him than Henderson.

00:56:34
Speaker 1: What about Woody Marks.

00:56:39
Speaker 2: I want to say yes, but like Nick Chubb's not going anywhere. I want to say, like, I'm in, But the Texans don't really throw the running backs all that much. Like I think it's like fifteen percent target share for the running backs and in an offense that doesn't pass a ton. I guess my confidence is like six. I think it would. It would actually take a Chubb absence for Mars to actually like be a thing, to be like a like a legit, to be a locked in starter. Yeah, he's more like RB three flex Burchard Smith. All right, I know they I know that he saw some first half action. I think four of his five targets came in the first half. Yeah, that's cool. I can't I can't get over the fact that, like you know, he was the garbage time running back against the Raiders. So I don't I don't know, maybe a five or maybe maybe six as far as confidence points go.

00:57:36
Speaker 1: I like him. I like him a lot.

00:57:37
Speaker 2: I think we're ways away from him taking on the Jeric McKinnon roll, which you love so much.

00:57:42
Speaker 1: That's what we need. They have a really good like playoff schedule and stuff, and I'm at least a little bit intrigued by that. I love Burshard Smith as a talent. I think he should be at least rostered everywhere, like he needs to, he needs to be on teams, because I think the upside is pretty interesting. Like if you think about this, if one of Pacheco or Kareem Hunt go down, right, then we're looking at a scenario because obviously, like you know, we're not gonna see players like going back to Travion. We never expected Travion to be like a seventy percent running back rush share player, no, you know, so, like it's all about, like you need to have that pass catching component and that's the you know you mentioned that with R. J.

00:58:21
Speaker 2: Harvey.

00:58:21
Speaker 1: The fear would be that they would actually not boost that up even if JK. Dobbins goes down, because Dobbin's only seeing like a three or four percent target share recently, whereas Burshard Smith has already back to back games with a fourteen percent target share and Isaiah Pacheco is a pretty replacement level player at this point. I think that he's at least looked at he's trending in the right direction at least, but he's not like some stud and no, he's always been like an okay pass catcher, not like an elite pass catcher. So if like, like let's just say Kareem Hunt goes down, that would boost Bshard Smith's running back rush share into like the thirty to forty percent range potentially, And then you add on that ten percent plus target share in that offense that could be enough in PPR formats. And and he's really really efficient and effective and explosive. Like that's interesting to me, that's interesting.

00:59:10
Speaker 2: I mean, we talk about the McKinnon role. There were seasons where McKinnon was absolutely nothing for fantasy until he was right exactly exactly and.

00:59:18
Speaker 1: Like and and he he just like Burschard Smith would get by on like crazy efficiency, right, and they would they would they would use that creativity like I was talking about at the goal line and give the ball to Jack McKinnon. I could see that starting to potentially happen to Burchard Smith. It's not but you're right, it's not there yet. He's not. He's certainly not you know, in that role yet. But that to me is like is that not like the perfect.

00:59:40
Speaker 2: Player to have on your bench in fantasy. I think him along with one other guy you're gonna name soon, Kyle Manungui, he's one of them. Yes, you're a young guys, Stan, I am. I mean, you know, Deanrew Swift, you know, not as bad as we thought, or at least not as bad as I thought. And the Bears are not as pass heavy as I thought they would beat a couple of weeks.

01:00:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been it's been a ground game approach for them.

01:00:07
Speaker 2: But Manungay has crazy contingency value and could instantly just be a plug and play if Swift went down. So I have him on I think every bench in redraft right now. What about Devin Neil, who's going to step in for Kendrey Million. Yeah, so that that that's the guy I was. I was. I was going to say, I I probably did too much for for Neil and in some weeks, but I really wanted him because I thought he had an interesting profile. Oh great, yeah, great profile, but like underrated like you you know, the mainstream media didn't talk about but the late the late round draft guy did and I I was, I was very into him. And so you know Kamara, Kamara is whatever at this point, like, I, you know, not good. I guess he's not going to be traded. But if he gets dinged up and Neil gets that RB one role, I think he could be fun. I think he could actually be quite fun and productive. And so I stashed him in a lot of plays.

01:01:05
Speaker 1: He's got He's got a three down like he can play all three downs right, and that to me is really attractive. Like, I think he's a really underrated prospect. I talked about that on the fifteen Transaction Show that there were metrics that only Ashton Genty and camp Skataboo were able to hit in the Prospect guy and in the ZAP model that Devin Neil was like next in line, and so, yes, very very interesting prospect.

01:01:28
Speaker 2: That's I meant to point that out earlier. The gent stuff was very interesting, like the Gent Neil stuff. I mean not exactly the same, but close enough where you're like.

01:01:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do we got here? I think Devin Neil is definitely a good stash, but I think this last guy might be my favorite stash. That's Bashall Tutin.

01:01:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean definitely, I don't for some reason I don't have Tuton anywhere are you?

01:01:52
Speaker 1: Do you do you think hare This has been a question that people have been asking a lot this week, and I almost talked about in the mailbag, but I didn't. Do you think that that's out of the by? There's a real possibility that they lean more on base Shall Tuton than they have over the last handful of weeks.

01:02:08
Speaker 2: I think I think it's a possibility, but it's going to be frustrating.

01:02:12
Speaker 1: You know.

01:02:13
Speaker 2: I did a piece on teams tendencies inside the ten yard line and no one has been passed heavier inside the ten yardland than the Jaguars this year. Yeah, so you're you're not getting those easy touchdowns. I think Travis y TN has two inside the ten carries this year.

01:02:29
Speaker 1: Two. Wow, I didn't realize that.

01:02:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean so there, you know that that kind of worries me a little bit. But but yeah, I mean Tutin is size speed freak, right. You know, the GM was intent on getting him. A lot of a lot of signs point to him being a thing if he gets a chance.

01:02:48
Speaker 1: And I like Travis TN has slowed down a little bit of late, not just from like a like a fantasy production standpoint, but like, I don't think that he's been like spectacular and so you know, he's not someone that like absolute needs to find the field. And there's also been this really weird I mean, you would know this probably better than anyone, this really weird like shoulder thing going on with Tutin, where like every week he's been on the injury report and then he just ends up playing and then like you know, there's there's this weird thing going on there. And I'm thinking maybe this bye week and allows him to rest a little bit and maybe they do use him more as that hammer.

01:03:21
Speaker 2: There have been times where I've been like looking at Blurbs on Friday or Saturday and I'm like, Tudent's not gonna play, is he right?

01:03:28
Speaker 1: Right?

01:03:29
Speaker 2: And and then he and then he's active, and then I'm like, well, yeah, it doesn't really matter. So yeah, no, hopefully he gets right through the bike. I think I think it's more of an issue than they're than they're leading on.

01:03:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, it could be. It's at least something that we should like have in the back of our mind that that's part of the reason why it's looked the way that it has. All right, last question, give me a bold prediction for week eight before you go.

01:03:50
Speaker 2: Oh, I got it ready, All right, let's hear it. I don't know if you're ready, but I'll just I'll just give it to you. Tyler Algier top twelve running back in week eight. I like that.

01:03:59
Speaker 1: I like that sleeper sleeper show running back for me? How bad? I mean that Miami defense. They've given up a top ten running back performance every week since Week one. Somehow Jonathan Taylor didn't finish in the top ten against them. That's crazy. Oh my gosh. Yeah, yeah, no, I mean the Falcons.

01:04:14
Speaker 2: Unless gamescript goes completely haywire, the Falcons could have like forty plus rushing attempts in this game.

01:04:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, b John Robinson could he might just go absolutely because not only does does Miami like not only they bat on the ground against running backs like the worst in the league on the ground, but they've given up like a top six adjusted target shair to running backs too. So it's just like this could go.

01:04:35
Speaker 2: It could go. If you're facing the Jehn Robinson in fantasy, Uh, maybe you know going hike, you know, going to nath your walk.

01:04:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't open that app. Don't open it until until Wednesday of.

01:04:46
Speaker 2: Next week, right, because you're gonna see Oh it's halftime and he has twenty nine points.

01:04:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's aweso right right, Denny, this is awesome as usual.

01:04:53
Speaker 2: You know, I love you.

01:04:54
Speaker 1: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, and where they can listen to you.

01:04:58
Speaker 2: Yell at rhodopad that's right.

01:05:00
Speaker 1: Or him cut my mic?

01:05:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, thank you for having me on JJ is always always great to podcast with you twice in a week.

01:05:06
Speaker 1: Yeah.

01:05:07
Speaker 2: All my Stuff is on roatal World, the Rotor World Football Show, which is on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel. We also stream the show live on the x platform formerly known as Twitter.

01:05:20
Speaker 1: Awesome. Find all my Stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you subscribe to the Late Round podcast you don't miss a show, and make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel as well, YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Have a great weekend everyone, and thanks for tuning in.