816: Week 6 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j Jae Zacherwson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and sixteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show was definitely better than the Week four one. It was a nice bounce back. I talked up Sam Howe, he had a big game. Julil McLaughlin and Taj Spears were both top ten running back options. Rashi Rice scored a touchdown, Zach Ertz did too, and Josh Down's a sub ten percent play. He was a top twenty option in PPR formats. Now, I didn't get everything right. That's never gonna happen. Both Josh Dobbs and Zach Wilson. They were bad streaming choices. Michael Wilson didn't give us an encore. Wandel Robinson wasn't used very creatively. Once again, that limited his upside despite a twenty percent target share. Overall, though it was a pretty good week. I'll give it a five out of ten. Let's try to be even better here in week six. We'll kick things off this week the same way that we did with last week's show, and that's with Sam Howe as a quarterback streamer. He fits the criteria of being a player roster in ten percent to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. For this tier of players, How's facing Atlanta. The Falcons have actually been a below average matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted Fantasy points allowed this year. That's not a good thing for how But what I'm intrigued by is that the Commanders have been very bad at keeping how upright, and Atlanta isn't very good at getting to the quarterback. Quarterback sacks aren't just an offensive line thing. This is on Sam Howe too, but the Commanders have given up a bottom five pressure rate in football this year. The Falcons are bottom five and pressure rate defensively, so the matchup is actually decent for him, And honestly, How's been low key not bad in Fantasy's average sixteen point four standard Fantasy points per game. That's not great, but that includes a contest and a much more difficult matchup than this one where he faced the Bills. He scored less than a point in that game, so I think How's a pretty solid play. I also think that Baker Mayfield's a solid play. Mayfield's given us a top twelve QB one performance and two of four games this year. Now he faces a Lions team that ranks as a top ten favorable matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. There's a chance for a pass heavy script for Tampa because Detroit's a good team and they face the third highest pass rate in football this year, So Baker Mayfield makes sense. Now, moving on to running back, I guess I should just talk about this Dolphins backfield in general. There's no Devon a chan So Raheem Mostert he's the RB one you should play Raheem Mostard. It's a great matchup. He's gonna see a lot of volume. But because it's a great matchup against the Panthers, and because Miami's a thirteen and a half point favorite, there are gonna be other running backs involved. More than likely will it be Jeff Wilson. Well, at the time of this recording, I have no idea if he's going to be ready to play, and I'm not sure the Dolphins are gonna rush him back in a matchup where they could be leading, where they're big favorites. Chris Brooks and Savon Ahmed are the other two running backs to focus on. Brooks played ahead of Akmed last week because of his special team's ability, but Auchman played ahead of Brooks back in Week one when Devon a. Chan was out, and Brooks was only on special teams in Week two when the four running backs were all together. So my best guest today right now is that Savon Achmed gets the second most touches in this Dolphins backfield this weekend, because Jeff Wilson might not be ready. Chris Brooks, as much as he's intriguing, he's been a special teamer and Achmed does sort of fit the Devon a Chan mold. But this is subject to change. Hopefully we learn a little bit as the week goes on. For now, as a deep sleeper, it's Savon Achmed. As a not so deep sleeper, it would be Jeff Wilson. Kenneth Gainwell is not the lead back for Philadelphia. That's DeAndre Swift, but he's averaged a twenty six percent running back rush are per game over his last two that's led to eleven touches on the ground and he's seen four targets He's not a horrible desperation play. This week, Philadelphia is facing the Jets, their seven point favorites. New York is a top ten matchup for running backs and ad justin Fantasy points allowed. If a positive game script hits for Philly in this one, which is entirely possible, then Gamewell could see eight to ten touches. Now. Similarly, we have Tajy Spears. He's still roster in just thirty nine percent of Yahoo leagues. That's despite being one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football and finishing as a top thirty PPR running back in back to back weeks. Negative game scripts favor Spears more than his teammate Derrick Henry. According to Fantasy Life, Spears has played eighty one percent of Tennessee's two minute snaps this year, and he's fifth in the NFL and running back target share. If Tennessee falls behind a very good Baltimore team, which is again entirely possible, then we might see that snapshare favorite Spears over Derrick Henry. So the matchup doesn't look amazing on paper, but it might end up being okay for a player like Tajy Spears. Deontay Foreman is under the fifty percent mark over on Yahoo. He makes obvious sense this week. Right now, Roshan Johnson is still in concussion protocol, and I think even if he ends up going, Foreman is still going to see some touches in the Bears offense. If Rochan doesn't go, then you're looking at a lot of volume for Deontay Foreman. Now, I'm not sure Foreman's going to see a lot of receiving work regardless of if Roshan Johnson goes or not. He's never seen a single game target share higher than ten percent, but the match was just below average on paper, and Foreman should be able to see double digit touches in this game, maybe even if Roshan Johnson goes. I talked up Chewba Hubbard on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, and now he's just been a better runner compared to Miles Sanders, and over the last two weeks, Hubbard's out attempted Sanders twenty three to twenty and they've seen the same number of targets. They get Miami this week. That could force a negative game script and it could force more passing, as we've seen with the Panthers all year. They have a top five pass rate in football that could lead to some catches for their running backs. They're an above average team and running back target share this season, So I don't think Hubbard's a smash play because Miles Sanders is still involved, but he's at least a solid one. And then the last running back that I've got for you in this tier, Latavius Murray. The Bills are huge fourteen point home favorites. They're playing a beaten down Giants team. Latavius Murray is tied for the team lead with six rushes from within their opponent's ten yard line, and he has the most at the goal line. Now, there is a chance that we see more Damien Harris than we were seeing earlier this season, but Murray's running more routes and he has the more reliable twenty twenty three workload, So I'd look to him as a sleeper this week as opposed to Damien Harris because it could be a blowout. Moving on to wide receiver, Brandon Cooks is now in sleeper territory. He's rostered in forty four percent of Yahoo leagues and he's been bad this year. He's a point six to nine yards per route run rate. Last year that number was one point sixty four. He hasn't scored more than six point seven p PUER points in a game so far this year. Now, the good news is that his target share per game rate is still fifteen point four percent, and the Cowboys get the Chargers this week. LA is the seventh best matchup for wide receivers and adjustin Fantasy points allowed, so I don't totally mind Brandon Cooks in Week six. I also like Josh Downs again this week. He's now graduated from the below ten percent tier now into this tier where guys are rostered in ten to fifty percent of leagues, but he should be rostered in more. The Colts are facing the Jags, and while Jacksonville has been pretty average against the slot this season, Downs himself has now seen a twenty point six percent target share in the season, and his target share per game rate in three games where Gardner Minshew's played significant snaps it's over twenty three percent, so the volume should be there this week. Robert Woods has seen a twenty percent target chair every game this season. Tank Dell could be out this week because of a concussion. Now, that won't necessarily give Robert Woods higher route participation, but it could funnel more targets his way. So keep an eye on Woods in a pretty average to blow average matchup against the Saints. There's more in this wide receiver group. In just a second. Now, the last wide out in this year that I want to get to Curtis Samuel. It feels like not enough people are talking about what he's been up to. He's scored eighteen pper points in back to back weeks. He's got a fifteen percent target chair in that offense. He's played seventy three percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and Atlanta has seen the fifth highest percentage of targets go to that area of the field. They're also tied for the league lead with four slot receiving touchdowns allowed. So he's got the matchup to go for a three peat. And then at tight end, I'm gonna stick with the commander, go with Logan Thomas. Atlanta just struggles against the middle of the field. They're a top five matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Thomas has now hit a twenty three percent target shair in two of four games this season, and his route participation has been top ten, top fifteen at the position. He could come back with another very good outing here in Week six. There's also Dawson Knox. Dalton Kincaid's currently in concussion protocol, and while Knox's banged up himself, he could be in store for an uptick and target chair if Kincaid can't go. He hit a sixteen point seven percent target chair last week, so monitor that situation. Moving on to the next tier, we'll be looking at players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues you could consider starting this week, and we're gonna begin with Gardner Minshew. Minshew's got a revenge game against the Jags, and Jacksonville has been a plus match up against quarterbacks this season and adjusted fantasy points allowed the Jags have been below average and pressure rate this season, and that's good because the Colts haven't been good at stopping pressure. Minchew's shown competence in the past, so I think he can come through with QB two production this week. Now. At running back, the only guy that I've got for you is Keante ingram Well. I guess I had the Miami running backs earlier, but the only one left is Ingram. Amari de Mercado is my preferred option in that backfield, especially if Ingram can't go this week, but we should be open minded to the idea that there's a chance that Arizona splits his backfield if Ingram's healthy. The problem is that he hasn't been that effective in the NFL. That's a big reason to prefer de Mercado, and de Mercado is also likely to get receiving reps. But we're in a range where there just aren't many running backs available, so Ingram is logical if he's healthy moving to wide receiver. I talked about Robert Woods just a second ago, but the player who's going to see the biggest jump in work if Tank Dell is out this week is John Mechi. Mechi hit a season high forty three percent snapshow this past week, and that led to a route participation over fifty percent. His high before this past week was twenty percent. Now, the matchup's one of amazing like I said earlier, but he'd be the one who actually benefits most from this Tank Dell injury, So keep that in mind. Everyone's rightfully going to be interested in kJ Osborne this week with Justin Jefferson's sidelined and the Vikings getting the Bears. But don't sleep on Brandon Powell. Pale ended up seeing a thirteen percent target share in Week five, and with Justin Jefferson's sidelined, he should see plenty of work in three wide receiver sets. The Vikings of the second highest pass rate in neutral game scripts this year, and they had the top overall pass rate, so there's a chance that Pal sees five or six targets. The Panthers should face a negative game script this week, That's what I talked about earlier, and that should allow them to maintain their high twenty twenty three pass rate. Now, Adam Feelin's gonna get his because he's been peppered with targets this year. But don't forget about rookie Jonathan Mingo. In Week five, Mingo played eighty six percent of Carolina snaps and he had an eighty six percent route participation rate. He ended up with a twenty percent target chare. He's hit a twenty percent target chair in two of four games this year, so I don't mind him in a decent wide receiver matchup now Finally, with our streaming defenses this week, I talked about Atlanta and Vegas on the fifteen Transaction Show, so you can go in that direction. And I also think that Washington makes sense. Washington has a pretty decent advantage in terms of pressure rate and pressure rate allowed defensively. And then Minnesota is another one. This could bite you given how well the Bears offense has played the last two weeks. But even with that, even with how well they've played, Chicago surrendered seven sacks over those two games, So the Vikings are a reasonable choice during a tough week for streaming defenses. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts can be found in over to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone greatly appreciate it. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show and then an episode of Late Round Perspectives.