Keith Law talks breakout candidates, Kevin McGonigle’s call-up, Konnor Griffin & Dylan Crews sent down

00:00:03
Speaker 1: Hey, keep us with us.

00:00:05
Speaker 2: A senior baseball writer for The Athletic Friend of Ours joining us right now on FT Keith. It is great to see articles coming out fast and furious too.

00:00:14
Speaker 3: How you doing, man?

00:00:15
Speaker 4: Not good?

00:00:16
Speaker 5: I'm actually back home after a week in the desert where it was one hundred and eat one day.

00:00:21
Speaker 4: I think the guy like the heat, and.

00:00:24
Speaker 5: It is a dry heat that might be above my threshold for actually like working.

00:00:30
Speaker 2: Great spot to cook eggs just right on your seat, which we'll.

00:00:34
Speaker 1: Get to actually anyway, right.

00:00:36
Speaker 2: Anywhere, anything out there, and I want to get to that. I do want to start with your breakout candidates column.

00:00:43
Speaker 4: So let's go there.

00:00:44
Speaker 2: If you can give me a sneak peek, give me a couple of players that stand out and maybe some that have the comments either roaring positively or negatively.

00:00:55
Speaker 5: No one ever disagrees with when I pick a breakout always why didn't you pick this guy too?

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Speaker 3: Right?

00:01:01
Speaker 4: I'm not a I have no crystal ball.

00:01:02
Speaker 5: I promise my history with these breakouts is pretty mixed. Like, I definitely don't claim to any kind of superpowers here. The biggest name was well, I guess literally and figuratively is calculate on with the Royals, who I think is a pretty popular breakout pick.

00:01:18
Speaker 4: I think all of.

00:01:19
Speaker 5: Us who tracked him going back to college and we've talked about him, I think on your show before, he's so much better than what we saw from him last year. Obviously, the power is insane, but he became sort of this weird pull side ground ball hitter.

00:01:33
Speaker 4: In the big leagues last year.

00:01:34
Speaker 5: And I'm attributing a lot of that to just he was in the big in the majors too soon. He only had about a month in Double A, a month and Triple A maybe a little more than that, and they called him up and he wasn't ready. And some of it is probably just bad luck. He's just never been that bad before. And I see a guy with way too much ability power. It's actually a really good athlete for his size. He's generally had better feel to hit than that, and I think the bar is pretty low for him to be a brain out player. Right If he just hits a little bit, it's going to be twenty five to thirty home runs, and that's going to be you know, impact, whether you're talking about real world or you know, a lot of people read this column for fantasy purposes, so I led with him specifically because I think the upside is so big. And I also just mentioned Shane Boz because he came up in trade this winter and at the time I said, this is a great pit great pickup for the Orioles, because I already thought he was going to break out, and now he goes to a team that's probably going to help him work on some of the pitch design stuff. That is like kind of the finishing off of Shane Boz as a pitcher. He's obviously always flashed good stuff, but last year you could see him messing with his arsenal even mid season, and I think just getting him to a pretty consistent pitch mix and another full year of health is probably the key to him stepping forward and becoming an above average starter, maybe even a top of the rotation guy.

00:02:53
Speaker 6: All Right, one of the guys you have on the list is Evan Carter. Do you feel like we're just going back to twenty twenty three off season going into twenty twenty four because I thought he was going to be Rookie of the Year after what he did in the playoffs, and a precursor is always Oh, this guy controls the strikes and I forget where they called him, like the three to two Carter or something, or full count Carter, something crazy like that. And it's been injuries, it's been inconsistency. What do you see as the breakout and what's the you know, is there is there something we need to look for once he actually starts to break out in the big leagues.

00:03:27
Speaker 5: Yeah, when he when I first saw him in the minors, I worried, is this guy just passive as he up there just to take take, take, But you really saw that playoff run that Now this is an actual approach. He's getting himself into hitters counts and then he's trying to do damage.

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Speaker 4: It's all we ask.

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Speaker 5: It's not actually that complicated, not that it's easy to execute, but in terms of what are we saying hitters should do, it's not take just to draw walks. You're trying to get yourself into good situations to drive the ball, and he showed us he could do that.

00:03:55
Speaker 4: I agree with you.

00:03:56
Speaker 5: Hells is the number one thing, right, If Evan Carter had already had a full healthy season in the last two years, he's already broken out and I'm not talking about him here. I do think with him, I've seen conflicting things in the press recently. Is he going to play against left eas or is he left EASi or is he just going to platoon? I think he should probably just platoon, unless they're willing to just accept it's a big learning curve when he's batting against the left handed pitcher, but against the right handed pitcher. Look for him to look like he did in twenty twenty three, to get himself headed the account again and to be able to drive the ball, which I think will be another indicator that.

00:04:32
Speaker 4: Particularly the back problems are behind you.

00:04:35
Speaker 5: Can he get into his strength, Can he get into his lower half again and be particularly pulling the ball with some authority.

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Speaker 4: I don't love to lean just.

00:04:44
Speaker 5: On exit blosses, but I do think in his case, it's probably a bit of a clue as to how healthy he is and whether he's trying to compensate for some of the back stuff which I think has affected him the last two years. Where he'd play but his back wasn't one hundred percent and so you weren't seeing the scene kind of at least the base power, if not over the fence power. Then he flashed in twenty three. I think, at least against right handed pitchers, who'll be the twenty twenty three version again against left handed pitchers. At the very least, it's going to take time. He hasn't hit them yet in the big leagues, and he doesn't have a whole lot of experience either.

00:05:16
Speaker 7: I mean, Evan Carter is one thing, but then you have Kobe Mayo with the Orioles. When do we just decide that maybe these guys are what they've shown so far. It's been a few years for both these guys, as much as we want Mayo and Carter and some of these other guys. Now Kaglione obviously has a smaller sample size than some of these other guys, but these Carter and Mayo have a.

00:05:35
Speaker 3: Little bit bigger of a track record. When do we just say, hey, this is what they are.

00:05:41
Speaker 5: I used to be more along those lines, think more alone those lines.

00:05:45
Speaker 4: But because of.

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Speaker 5: How much development work is happening behind the scenes, including things like swing changes or drills to work on I'm thinking more hitters here, but to work on tunneling to be able to pick up a pitch tight were a location sooner out of the pitcher's hand, which I think of with Austin Riley, who was flat out bad for a year plus in the majors and then did that work on pitch recognition location recognition and became an All Star after doing that. Spencer Torklssen last year, who I was kind of out at that point. Going to last year, I was like, oh my god, the Torkalsen break again. Are we doing this again? Because it was five years since he'd been drafted, I think three years in the big leagues at that point, and it hadn't happened. In both Carter and Mayo's case, there's been so much interrupted playing time they're up, they're down, or Carter's case it was the injured list. Mayo's case there was a demotion or getting him moved around multiple positions. I put Mayo on the list. He had a really good spring training. He's hitting the ballhard again. Sure it looks like he's going to get consistent playing time. And that has been my thing with him since they first called him up, is call him up and and tell him, look, this is your job for two three hundred at bats. You're not going to the miners after it, oh for four tomorrow, because a lot of time it looked like that's how he was hitting. And having seeing him all the way up through the miners low A all the way up some at least your double leg, that's not who he is. He is not a tentative hitter. He's not defensive, he's offensive. He's really trying to put the ball in play, get it in the air, get it over the fence.

00:07:13
Speaker 4: We didn't see enough of that in the majors.

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Speaker 5: And I think if he just gets consistent playing time and a consistent position, we'll see that version of Mayo in the big leagues.

00:07:24
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00:08:25
Speaker 6: Well, I have another breakout star because they the news just broke. Robert Murray just broke that Kevin mcgonagal will make the opening day roster for the Tigers. So there's there's your breakout star. What are we nice as non Tigers fans, as non minor league prospect fans, supposed to look for and from this PA native.

00:08:47
Speaker 4: Yes.

00:08:47
Speaker 5: In fact, when I met McGonagall at the Futures Game last year, asked him the most important question.

00:08:52
Speaker 4: I just said, go Berts, he's absolutely so.

00:08:55
Speaker 5: You know he's going to be a star because he's got his priorities in place he can hit, he had really, really hit. He is one of the best pure hitting prospects of the last ten years. He's got exceptional command of the strike zone. He puts the ball in play on a line a ton. It's a really great swing for just hard contact that is going to translate into some power, even though he's not the biggest guy. But because he's hitting it so hard and consistently putting the ball in the air, he's gonna end up getting to his fifteen to twenty homers. What I really expect from him in this short term, as much as you can predict anything any rookie's gonna do, I think he'll put the ball in play a ton and be able to hit for average. I may it'd be a ton of power right away. He's probably gonna be more swing and miss than we've ever seen from him before, just because big league pitching is that good. But I believe very strongly in the hit tool. I'll be curious to see how his defense looks. When I saw him in high school, I thought this guy's definitely moving to second base. He's still playing shortstop. Scouts I talked to who've seen him a lot more than I have over the last couple of years. Say he's got a chance to stay at the position, and if he does stay there, he's obviously way more valuable and helps the Tigers because that's the biggest hole they had in their lineup was at shortstop, So they really needed McGonagall to step forward and grab that job, and I think he did. If he produces like I expected the plate and can just play competent defense at shortstop, they're probably two wins better off just from that one edition.

00:10:17
Speaker 6: Most of these guys in your list, they're young guys that are looking to have breakouts. Yes, a guy like Kevin McGonagall, where do you think most successfully the Tigers can implement him into their lineup. Everyone talks about the defense, but in the lineup does he a player like this? Do you need him to just all of a sudden bang be your leadoff hitter, or do you say, okay, we're going to give you a soft landing spot, we'll go seven, eight nine, that type of position in the line.

00:10:44
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm going to probably show my age here, but I feel like you introduced rookies into the lineup at the bottom and let them hit their way up into more critical positions in the lineup, higher leverage spots.

00:10:58
Speaker 4: The same way.

00:10:59
Speaker 5: I still think a lot of starting pitchers should.

00:11:01
Speaker 4: Be introduced to the majors, either as.

00:11:02
Speaker 5: Swingman or long relievers, or if you have to. They're kind of that spot starter where you can reduce the pressure on them out of the gate and let them continue to work their way up into more significant roles. I think by the end of the year McGonagall is hitting in the top four spots in the lineup, but I wouldn't start him there. I'd be like, you're the eight or nine hitter. This is just to help you get acclimated. We believe in you, we think you're going to produce, but we're going to take the pressure off a little bit. You're not coming up in higher leverage spots, you're not coming up with guys on base all the time. You can just be who you are, and as you continue to produce, we will move you up in the lineup. The same way with a rookie pitcher, I would say, as you continue to pitch, well, we're going to trust you with higher workloads, higher leverage situations, cement you into the rotation.

00:11:48
Speaker 7: By the end of the season, Hey, Keith, A couple guys before we're going to dig into Connor Griffin not getting options, but with him and Dylan Cruz are probably the two biggest names, right didn't maybe hast on Kim but but uh, but but mainly Connor Griffin and uh, Dylan Cruz not making their teams respectively.

00:12:09
Speaker 3: What happened with Dylan Cruz? What what?

00:12:11
Speaker 7: Where has he gone? Because he has not hit in the big leagues. And then after that we'll get into Connor Griffin. But Dylan Cruz to me was shocking when again he didn't make the team, he not got option to Triple A.

00:12:21
Speaker 5: I gotta say good good for the Nationals. Nothing against Cruise at all, but that the Nationals were not wedded to He's been in the big leagues. He was the number two pick in the draft. He was our top prospect at one point. There's obviously a new front office that they don't have those ties to him before, and they can, I think, be a little bit more objective. There's things Cruz needs to work on in Triple A. I don't I have seen him in Triple A and in the big leagues and he hasn't looked like quite the same hitter. He has shown some vulnerabilities, particularly to fastballs up, fast balls up and in pitches that he clobbered as an amateur, and in the low minors he has not done nearly as well against that in Triple A or the majors, and not made adjustments. This is a guy that really never failed. Then three years at LSU he was the best hitter in the country, and I wonder if it was kind of a bit of a surprise to him when he got to even Triple A and started to see some issues with contact. He never hit gangbusters in the high Myers, not like he hit three twenty three thirty and then got called up. I always wondering if part of why he got called up in the first place was, well, why at Langford's succeeding in the majors and Paul Skeens is succeeding in the majors, those guys who are the same draft class. We got to bring our guy up at this point, sending Cruise back to Triple A for support, a reset to work on very specific things, with a new coaching staff and a new player development, a new front office in place.

00:13:38
Speaker 4: I hope this gets us back.

00:13:39
Speaker 5: To the Dylan cruise that the Nationals thought they were drafting because I, like you, I thought he'd hit. I thought, if nothing else, this guy who's going to.

00:13:45
Speaker 4: Hit for average.

00:13:45
Speaker 5: We'll see how some of the secondary stuff plays out as he continues to play. But he, like Torklsen, right, he hasn't even gotten to that baseline of production that would allow us to talk about what's his ultimate ceiling?

00:13:57
Speaker 3: Okay, then what about Connor Griffin?

00:13:59
Speaker 6: Is it?

00:14:00
Speaker 7: I mean, we just had Jim Boden on here and he was talking about service time manipulation, which we hate talking about, right, But then the Pirates allegedly offered him one hundred plus million dollars. Would he have made the team if he's signed that extension, because if he's not ready, then why do you offer him nine years one hundred million ish dollars. It doesn't make sense to me why you make that offer and then you send him down because he doesn't accept it. If he takes that offer, you think they're sending him down.

00:14:22
Speaker 3: Probably not.

00:14:24
Speaker 5: I think I don't think their manipulating serviced. He was in double A for less than a month at the end of last year. He hit exceptionally well at that point, but he's still a teenager. Would have been very that's very unusual for teenagers to make opening day rosters as well. As he has hit everywhere in the miners. It's one year, just a couple of weeks in double A where and he did not look great this spring.

00:14:46
Speaker 4: Like if he.

00:14:47
Speaker 5: Had gone off in spring training against big league pitching, this is probably a very different situation. I heard all winter they wanted him to win the job, but they needed him to win the job. They were just going to hand him the job. I have a feeling even if he accepts the contract, I mean, that might actually make it easier to send him down, because then there's not even a hint of service time manipulation. You could say, look, you're going down, you're getting paid, your contract is in place. Here are the things we need you to work on before we're going to promote you to the next step.

00:15:14
Speaker 4: Whether it's they.

00:15:14
Speaker 5: Start him back in double A sender and Triple A, probably they'll start him in Triple A and say here are the things you need to do before we bring you up to the majors. I had no issue with them sending him down because he's so young and so inexperienced and so talented, be willing to take a couple of maybe it's just a couple of weeks. Let him go down prove that he's ready for the next step, as opposed to jumping him essentially two levels into the majors where he hasn't had a lot of chance to make adjustments, so to prove that he was going to be ready to hit major league pitching. I think he's going to get there sooner than later. He'll be up before we get to the All Star break. But them choosing to take a slower approach given his youth actually middleized sense.

00:15:56
Speaker 6: To me, sending Dying Cruise and Conor Griffin to Triple A to face pitching that's not big league pitching to see if they're ready seems like kind of a kind of like a nineties to the late two thousands type of thing. Triple A pitching isn't what Triple A pitching isn't isn't big league pitching, and industry sources have said the gap is farther and farther, So to me, when you're a team like the Pirates, isn't the best development a big league development, especially if they were saying, yeah, we're willing to give you one hundred million dollars, we can let you develop in the big leagues. We can, we can let you be the best shortstop on our team currently as you develop. I mean, I think I think Gustin Perdroia hit one ninety in April in for the for Boston when he first.

00:16:46
Speaker 3: Got called out.

00:16:47
Speaker 6: So are they expecting too much? Or am I expecting too much? Because he's still nineteen and he's all over these all over everyone's publications.

00:16:57
Speaker 5: I mean, I know there's a big difference between Griffin and crue Cruise, where with Griffin he's never faced triple A pitching at all.

00:17:03
Speaker 4: He's barely face double A pitching.

00:17:05
Speaker 5: I think it was three weeks at the end of the last season where he hit like crazy, because that's all he has ever done since he first signed. But to me, there's a big difference between the Griffin situation where it's like, hey, prove you can hit double A pitching, okay, or even say, prove you can hit triple A pitching, which I agree with you is not close to big league pitching. You go to triple A, you see plenty of guys you at least throw hard. You will see a lot of guys who throw maybe one quality off speed pitch, but they can't locate it or they don't have the full arsenal of weapons that you would find in a big league starter. Griffin's never faced those guys except the little bit in spring training with Cruz, I could see more of the argument of can we develop you better in the.

00:17:40
Speaker 4: Big leagues because you've been in the big leagues for a year and a half.

00:17:43
Speaker 5: Cruz will probably go back to Triple A and say, well, this is like batting practice, right, I've seen better than this for my last five six hundred at bats at this point. So that is more of just sitting him out, maybe away from the spotlight, to a more controlled situation where you can get you can be working with him away from the field a little more one on one without the distraction of hey, you're hitting a buck eighty in the big leagues again. But he's going to probably overperform because he's facing worst pitching having been sent down where's Griffin doesn't have that. He's never faced anything better than double A pitching that he saw at the very tail end of last year. I think he's gonna go down and hit well enough that a month from now they probably do just end up calling him up. But I prefer them to be a little bit conservative because he's so young. If you were twenty two or twenty three like Pedroia was to me, this is a very different story, and we're asking is he really going to benefit from being sent down at that point given his age and experience.

00:18:34
Speaker 2: Keith, we love having you on, really appreciate it as always. Thanks for stopping by. Make sure you check out Keith's articles in The Athletic much more info wise on the breakout players, and you can do whatever you want with those. I know there's a lot of fantasy drafts that are happening. I've got mine tonight. So Keith, thank you man, great to catch up. You love your insight.

00:18:51
Speaker 4: Yeah, my pleasure.

00:18:54
Speaker 2: Hey, it might be time to have a heart to heart with your phone and be like, I love you, but you cost too much.

00:19:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not paying this much anymore. That's it.

00:19:03
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00:19:54
Speaker 2: We have two minutes for this. Here's my question for you, pirate, said Griffin.

00:20:00
Speaker 1: Not ready. I'm actually okay with that.

00:20:02
Speaker 2: You can point to some things in spring training that say, hey, we're going to send them a triple A. I don't think you can send a one hundred million dollar contract offer. Noah Hyles Bucco Territory and reported it for his publication too, said that happened if he had taken it. AJ Do you think they would have optioned him.

00:20:19
Speaker 7: No, And by the way, we respect Keith and we like Keith. But here's the deal. What let's say Connor Griffin goes down to triple A and just tears it up. Did they call him up and say, well, he tore it up. He could have been doing that on the big league roster. So you can't tell me this is not some sort of service time manipulation.

00:20:36
Speaker 3: I'm sorry.

00:20:36
Speaker 7: And by the way, they didn't already know that he wasn't going to make the team before. What if he would have hit five hundred they had to make the team. No, like this is this is classic. We just it's an easier call, and like Jim Bowden said, it gives us an it possibly can give us an extra year of control. And if he takes that contract, he's one hundred percent in the major leagues. I'm sorry, they're not going to send him a triple A making two three million dollars. They're just not They're the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's going to be on the big league roster.

00:21:03
Speaker 3: So listen.

00:21:04
Speaker 7: I heard that he was offered a contract in spring training when I was in Bradenton. I heard he was debating. We didn't talk about it with Connor when we talked to him, but I had heard this. I didn't want to bring it up. It's not my place.

00:21:14
Speaker 3: You didn't take it.

00:21:15
Speaker 7: And now he's in where even I don't even where is Indianapolis. I guess I don't even know where the triple is, but I think so Indianapolis, Like, go tear it up for a month and get up there, and then I hope when you get there you take them for every dollar that they're worth.

00:21:26
Speaker 3: Connor Pirates, I love the Pirates.

00:21:31
Speaker 5: Stop.

00:21:31
Speaker 2: If you've got one hundred mil, you're up in the big leagues here.

00:21:35
Speaker 1: Sure that part bothers me.

00:21:46
Speaker 2: All right, we did American League. Now let's do a National league. Sad here bet MGM futures National League West will go.

00:21:53
Speaker 1: To a team quite heavily favorite.

00:21:57
Speaker 2: Do you even touch this category Dodgers AD minus seven hundred, No, right, no, you don't even think there's some sneakiness in here. Remember last year the Padres hung with him? No, no, nothing, Okay, so she got.

00:22:11
Speaker 7: Close closes not winning it. They didn't get that close. I mean they were never It was never a doubt who was winning that division last year Okay.

00:22:20
Speaker 6: It was like the Dodgers lost six that the Padres had won three and they got within like three games. No, unless you want to light one hundred dollars on fire, I don't see the reason to do it.

00:22:31
Speaker 1: Late in the season.

00:22:32
Speaker 2: I think at one point they were tied and all that, but the Dodgers ended up winning the division by three games.

00:22:37
Speaker 1: They cleared them.

00:22:39
Speaker 2: Let's see if I can interest you in the National League Central. Yes, Cubs are almost even money. They're plus one ten, Brewers at plus two forty Reds plus five hundred, Pirates at plus six hundred.

00:22:53
Speaker 1: Anything funky here? Where's value?

00:22:58
Speaker 3: Brewers are still the value?

00:23:00
Speaker 4: Right?

00:23:01
Speaker 7: Just because they won ninety seven games last year. I know they made some moves, but the Brewers are still But the Cubs should win this division. They should No, well they I don't know, but they should win this division. So the Brewers, the Reds, the Pirate, I mean the Cardinals obviously no. But to me, the Brewers are the best value in this I mean under the Cubs. If you want to win ten bucks down the road.

00:23:22
Speaker 3: If ten bucks is unimportant to.

00:23:23
Speaker 2: You, well no, I mean you put down one hundred, you win one ten yeah, right right, So it's a little better than even money. It's a tiny bit better than doubling your money.

00:23:39
Speaker 3: I would say the Reds.

00:23:41
Speaker 6: I mean, if there's anybody in the National League that, like, okay, who could have like a breakout year that you'd be surprised about where you're getting. What was that plus five hundred, I mean five to one, five to one, I'd take the Reds offense to figure it out in a National League Central that could be a little bit more winnable. I do think the Cubs are gonna win it, but I think if there's a team I don't think. I don't think me getting two forty from the Brewers is enough value for me to say, oh wait, they've done it every year.

00:24:18
Speaker 3: I get it.

00:24:19
Speaker 6: You know, Big Wou's not even quite up to his pitch count here to start the season. They lost Freddy p I just think the Reds could be that like kind of quote out of nowhere type of pick that will get you some good cash at five to one.

00:24:35
Speaker 2: Can I show you guys the one that I absolutely hate. I would not touch this at all because I just don't think there's enough value anywhere. National League East Division winner, they have the Mets favored at plus one thirty five. Okay, I think there's too much variance with the Mets. The Phillies I think will win the division. But we're at plus one to eighty. It's not enough for me when there are other teams that I think could ruffle feathers. And then with the way the Braves are going through the beginning of the season with their rotation, they're at plus two fifty. To me, this is a total spend your money elsewhere category.

00:25:06
Speaker 7: If we want to throw some money on the Marlins, they have all the pitching in the world. I've been told repeatedly, So maybe for ten bucks on the Marlins and you can win a lot.

00:25:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred bucks on the Marlins would win you four g's are something.

00:25:19
Speaker 7: That's the only one that I would say if you wanted to just go crazy and take a shot at something, that would be the one.

00:25:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, So ten bucks, if I'm doing my math right, would win you four hundred bucks.

00:25:29
Speaker 1: Yes, forty to one odds not too shabby.

00:25:33
Speaker 3: Now, I would stick with bet MGM.

00:25:35
Speaker 6: We don't have it on here, But if you're going to anything National League East, go check out some wind totals at the National League East. We hit a couple of them, but you check those out because it's a division that they're gonna beat each other up. But they also have the lowly Nationals in it. It's an interesting it's an interesting look at those wind totals.

00:25:54
Speaker 2: I've been told we're gonna do a little bit of that tomorrow, so we'll do predictions.

00:25:58
Speaker 1: We'll do the wind totals.

00:26:00
Speaker 2: I think we'll pick three like we did the prior two years, pick three over unders on the win total side that you really like. Okay, bet MJM is offering the opportunity to win a share of this is a big number, two million dollars in bonus bets. You got to correctly pick the Cavender twin Haley or Hannah that wins the Court of Legends event at the Bank in Las Vegas on April fifth. They already did the sweep stake, so there's people that'll be out there for that. So you got a fifty to fifty chance. Opt into the Pick a Twin to win free to play game. Select which twin you think is going to win this battle, and then if you pick the right twin, you win a share of two million dollars in bonus bets. Gambling problem more concern. There's help, Call one eight hundred gambler