705: 15 Transactions for Week 10

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zachera J J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach or Esen in this episode seven hundred and five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into this week's fifteen transactions, I want to remind you about FanDuel Faceoff. Fandel Faceoff is where you compete in quick, fun games against other real people for real cash. It is all sorts of games that you're familiar with, like Home Run, Derby, Wheel of Fortune, puzzle and strategy games, and there's more on the way. Contests are action packed and lasts between two to five minutes. You can play on your couch, waiting in line, during a commercial break, wherever, and on your schedule. Plus, you can practice for free anytime, whether it be head to head, multiplayer larger tournaments. Fandel Faceoff has something for you plus and most contests you'll be matched against other players of similar skill level, so you're never totally overmatched even as a beginner. Face Off is also tied to your Fandel accountant wallet, so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app. Visitfandle dot com slash Faceoff or download the Fandle Faceoff app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game. Agent location restrictions apply void where prohibited. Seefandle dot Com slash Faceoff hyphen terms for terms and conditions. Sell Joe Mixon. So I've talked about Mixing on this show throughout the season, and now he's done a really good job in expected fantasy points. But as a lot of people have told me, expected fantasy points don't score fantasy points. That's not how fantasy points are scored. But entering Week nine, Mixin led all of fantasy football and expected fantasy points. That's according to Pro Football Focuses model, he was just playing well below expectation. Touchdown regression was gonna eventually hit. He'd only scored twice on twelve goal line attempts, but obviously that all changed in week nine. He scored five times. He had the highest fantasy total by any player this season, and right now might be the perfect time to sell. I talked about this a little bit on last week's Mail episode, but if you're looking toward the playoffs, his matchups in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen are not good. The Bengals get the Buccaneers, Patriots, and Bills during that stretch. That's the toughest playoff schedule for running backs in all of fantasy, according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed method, New England and Tampa Bay in particular, they rank his top five tough matchups against running backs. I do think that Mixon should still be able to provide you some sort of floor. I'm just worried about the ceiling because those matchups are not easy in the fantasy playoffs by aman Ross Saint Brown. So let's just be honest. Since Week two, aman Ross Saint Brown has not been that great in fantasy football. He hasn't ranked higher than wide receiver twenty three and PPR formats in any week since that point in time, and he hasn't found the end zone since then. Now I get it he was a little bit banged up, but over the last couple of weeks he's provided an average of eleven point seven PPR points per game. That's far below what we're expecting from him. But I'm still more on the by side than the cells side for Saint Brown. The Lions do have a below average schedule for wide receivers from here on out, but Sat Brown's average almost a thirty three percent target share per game over his last two and in Week nine without TJ. Hockinson, Saint Brown's target share was thirty seven and a half percent. You have a talented player, and you have a talented player who's seeing a lot of volume, that usually wins out at the end. AD Jeff Wilson. So Wilson's sort of a fringe ad this week because he's only available in forty eight percent of Yahoo leagues, But it wouldn't be right if I didn't mention him. He was another player that I talked about on last week's Mailbag episode, and I talked about how Wilson being in that backfield that was a bigger deal for Raheem Moster than Chase Edmonds being there. Wilson was a much bigger threat to Mostard, and we saw that right away. He played forty nine percent of Miami snaps against Chicago on Sunday. Edmonds hadn't hit that high of markson's Week two and that resulted in Wilson carrying exactly half of the team's running back rushes, and he had a ten point three percent target chair. He was a top ten running back this past week in PPR formats. And as I've been saying about this Miami backfield, they have a very good schedule moving forward over the next four weeks. No team has a better schedule for running backs in fantasy football than the Miami Dolphins. So I think that Wilson can do a lot for your playoff push. Add to Shaun Watson. We were going to get to this point eventually, right Deshaun Watson set to return against the Texans in early December, but his percent roster number is going to see a rise with each passing week. At this time, he's rostered in twenty eight percent of Yahoo leagues, so right now might be the time to stash him. We know that on a football field, Watson has crazy fantasy upside. Add Donovan Peoples Jones, so the Browns passing attack is probably gonna get somewhat of a boost when Deshaun Watson comes back, and that's going to help someone like Donovan Peoples Jones. But here's the thing. DPJ has been low key pretty good over the last handful of weeks. He said a twenty percent target chair in Cleveland's offense in four of his last five games. He scored between nine and thirteen PPR points and all of those contests, and he's done that while failing to record a touchdown. And the Browns have a good schedule in the Fantasy playoffs, they get the Ravens, Saints, and Commanders. I think people's jones should be rostered in far more than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues by or hold James Connor. So I wrote this in the fifteen transactions email, but it says warning, this is a high variance transaction, Proceed with caution. We finally saw James Connor on a football field again. His stat line wasn't amazing. He scored just eleven point four PPR points, but there's definitely a lot to like about what we saw this past weekend. He played seventy one percent of Arizona snaps, that's just one percentage point off of his season high, and he also saw fifty eight percent of Arizonas running back rushes and a fifteen percent target chair. Those numbers combine with some goal line work that could take Connor into RB two territory. Pretty consistently moving forward if we were to assume that he's going to maintain that. But yeah, obviously James Connor can't stay healthy. And I've also got to add that the Cardinals have one of the toughest schedules for running backs in fantasy from here on out. So, like I said, this is a high variance move. On one hand, strength of opponent only means so much, and Connor's trending towards seeing the type of workload that you want from a running back in fantasy football. On the other hand, things can go south very quickly. So if you're able to send something that's not very significant to get James Connor right now after this mediocre performance, I don't think that's a bad idea because a lot of fantasy managers won off of this James Connor roller coaster ad Terras Marshall. So I talked about Marshall on last week's Sleeper Show, and I do think that he should be added. Over the last two weeks, he's seen a twenty five twenty percent target share in this Carolina offense. He's had fifteen total targets. The Panthers are likely going to trailing games. They're not a good football team, keep up that target share pace. He's gonna be a decent fill in for you, and the Panthers have one of the best wide receiver schedules from now through the end of the year. So you can add Terris Marshall this week, sell Davante Adams. So again, last week's Mailbag episode, I talked about Adams, and I talked about Adams being a bye not a sell. Well, I'm flipping the script a little bit because I didn't expect DeVante Adams to score thirty six points six PPR points on Sunday. He went absolutely nuts. He had a forty seven percent target share in that Raiders offense. He had seventeen total targets. But now might be a good time to sell, especially if you're a borderline playoff team, because over Vegas's next three games they get the Colts, Broncos, and Seahawks. Those are all bottom five matchups for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to the position. But of course, like I said last week, he is Davante Adams. He's still going to produce. We should just temper expectations after what we saw in Week nine. Add Odell Beckham. So the Odell Beckham chatter is heating up. Jay Glazer reported that Beckham will be ready and cleared by the end of the week, So fantasy managers, they're gonna be looking for him off the waiver wire. That means you probably should be too. Now do keep in mind. According to Fantasy Points doctor Edwin Poloross, Beckham could return in the middle of November all the way through the middle of December. His real return to the football field may not be immediate. The good news is that Paul Ross believes that it's reasonable to expect eighty percent to ninety percent quote prime OBJ when he's back on the field. That's good news, and chances are Beckham's going to land with a contender. He's going to go to a good team and that hopefully means a team with good quarterback play. So that's going to help him be fantasy relevant. By George Pickens, a lot of people want nothing to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, and I totally understand why. They're thirty first in yards per drive. They're thirty first in scoring rate per drive, their deadline touchdowns scored per drive. They have six passing touchdowns on the year, that's tied for last. The offense has been horrible, but that's also what makes George Pickens an interesting BI low candidate. Chase Claypool's now in Chicago, over seventeen percent of the team's targets in Pittsburgh are now up for grabs. Now, we can't assume those looks are going to go to one player, but team target share always equals one hundred percent. There's at least opportunity for a player like George Pickens to see more work, and he has a lot to gain. Over his last two games, he's seen a fourteen percent in a seven and a half percent target chair. First year wide receivers tend to perform better during the second half of their rookie seasons, and Pittsburgh wide receivers have only two bad matchups by justin Fantasy points allowed from now through the end of the year. In fact, when looking at their median opponent, Steelers' wide receivers have the best schedule in all of Fantasy from here on out, so coming out of their by now might be the perfect time to trade for George Pickens add Kylon Hill. So Aaron Jones had an ankle injury on Sunday against Detroit, but it sounds like he's gonna be okay. Tests reportedly came back negative. With that being said, it's early in the week. Who knows what this injury is going to look like. Towards the end of the week. Aj Dillon would get an obvious bump if Aaron Jones is sidelined. But don't sleep on Kylon Hill. He got his first carry of the season in Week nine after being activated from the pup and he's someone that my prospect model loved as an undervalued player coming out of last year's draft. Injuries have just derailed any opportunity, but with this Aaron Jones injury, he might have some opportunity. The bottom line is the waiver wire is pretty rough this week, so these deeper ads like a Kylon Hill, that's the direction that you likely have to go in. There's absolutely no reason to spend any significant free agent budget on Kylon Hill, at least in a redraft league. Sell Tyler Algier. Cordero Patterson is back, and Tyler Algier had his lowest snap rates since Week three this past week. That resulted in just thirty three percent of the team's running back rushes in a four point three percent target shair. Those are bad numbers. The good news, though, is that Algier still scored thirteen PPR points because he had crazy efficiency. He had one hundred and twenty three total yards and eleven touches. So there is still an opportunity potentially to sell high because we can't bank on that type of efficiency on that type of production per touch. Now, Atlanta is probably gonna keep Algier involved in this committee, and the Falcons do have a good schedule for some positive game scripts moving forward. It's just that this usage, it took a very clear hit with Patterson back, but his production remained the same. So with worse usage but similar production, that screams sell at Jimmy Garoppolo. Week ten doesn't have the best streaming options at quarterback, but I do think that Jimmy G works. He obviously has his new weapon in Christian McCaffrey, and he's facing the Chargers, a team that ranks middle of the pack in adjusted Fantasy points a lot of quarterbacks. The forty nine Ers also have an implied team total according to fandals Sportsbook of almost twenty seven. This week, Garoppolo scored between sixteen and eighteen fantasy points in each of his last four I think is a pretty safe option. Add the New Orleans Saints defense. So the Saints have a short week and they get the Steelers coming off a bye, so there is some risk in using them this week, but that being said, they're three point road favorites and the Steelers have surrendered a top ten performance to an imposing defense in five of their last six games, so I think New Orleans works as a streamer. Add the Los Angeles Chargers defense. Now, I would not use the Chargers this week against the forty nine ers, but it's a bad week for the waiver wire, so I figured that I would give you guys a little bit of a look ahead defense. Objectively, the Chargers have the best playoff schedule of any defense in fantasy football. They get the Titans in Week fifteen, Tennessee is currently the thirteenth best matchup for opposing defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and then in Week sixteen they get the Colts. They're the best matchup, and then the Rams the second best matchup. So if you're in a deeper league, you might be able to add LA right now, but at the very least you can keep an eye on them. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Lateround Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and otfet to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Reme'm gonna check out lateround dot com, join the Patreon and subscribe to the newsletter. You can get access to the discord community through the patreon in that community is amazing. You guys definitely should check it out. Go to lateround dot com. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show