The Show: Thursday Night Football Reactions, Week 1 Bold Predictions, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired yesterday on YouTube. If you'd like to catch it live, you can find it on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel at one pm Eastern every Friday during this twenty twenty five season. That's on YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. So, without further ado, here's this week's episode.

00:00:36
Speaker 2: All right, welcome in David Kitchen aka JJ's number one alongside JJ. How's it going, sir?

00:00:44
Speaker 3: I'm tired, very tired.

00:00:46
Speaker 1: You know, we're recording this on Friday, you know, fortunately not in the morning, but one pm Eastern over on YouTube, and we are you know, we had an extra hour of lost sleep last night because of that that lightning delay.

00:01:01
Speaker 3: With that that opening game, and.

00:01:03
Speaker 1: Honestly, after that that lightning delay, things.

00:01:06
Speaker 3: Got kind of boring. With that game.

00:01:08
Speaker 1: It went from being a really fun back and forth game to just completely dead.

00:01:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, you should people should have just like gone to sleep. They would have gotten more sleep, more energized, and they didn't miss anything except for like tilting Cede Lamb's catches.

00:01:24
Speaker 3: Yes, the CD Lamb stuff was not great.

00:01:28
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:01:29
Speaker 1: I think like most people were just kind of rooting for like some kind of crazy ending. And you know, Lamb had two really really big opportunities on that final drive. You know, the one went directly through his hands now I know it was the middle of the field.

00:01:43
Speaker 2: Like Dak.

00:01:43
Speaker 1: Look, Dak was awesome last night. He was I don't want to take anything away from that at all. But he also is not afraid of throwing some hospital balls. You know, he's very aggressive, very aggressive down the middle of the field. You know he did that with Jake Ferguson.

00:01:56
Speaker 2: The end, got lit up.

00:01:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I.

00:01:59
Speaker 1: Mean that happened with Ferguson and then ceedee Lamb, you know on that play. You know, look, he's one of the best wide receivers in the game. He's got to make that play like he's got and I know that he would probably say the same thing. And then at the end where they have that fourth down and they see that one on one coverage on the outside and they say we're gonna take a chance, which is like the Ben Roethlisberger special. Like back in the day, Roethlisberger would always do that on third and fourth and short and it would drive Steelers fans nuts.

00:02:24
Speaker 3: But you got to do that.

00:02:25
Speaker 1: You got to take those shots when you have those advantageous matchups you're using.

00:02:28
Speaker 3: I mean, it's Dak Prescott the CD LAMB.

00:02:29
Speaker 1: That's one of the best connections in football, and so you can't blame Dallas for taking that shot. And it was there for him, I mean, like they had it. It just went through his outstretched arms. It would have been a hard catch to make, but again, he's one of the best whiteouts in the game. He could have made that catch for sure.

00:02:44
Speaker 2: That first half though, was great, and it just reminded us why fantasy football is the greatest unless you have aj Brown will talk about that in a second. A few housekeeping notes. Number One, shout out to our sponsor, DraftKings. We appreciate you, uh they We have a special if you scan that QR code in the corner, use promo code late Round, deposit at least five dollars you'll get a DFS ticket. And again, shout out to DraftKings for being with us in the best ball season and they're gonna be with us for a little bit during this NFL season. The next thing, JJ you want to you want to announce it.

00:03:23
Speaker 3: Sure, I'll announce it. I mean, you did a ton of work on this.

00:03:26
Speaker 1: We have officially partnered with iHeartMedia and the NFL and we will be officially a part of well, we will be part of the official NFL podcast network this season, which we're very very excited about.

00:03:40
Speaker 3: I think that, you know, this is good.

00:03:41
Speaker 1: A lot of people are saying, what's going to change with the podcast and what's gonna you know, there's not much that's going to change from like a content perspective.

00:03:47
Speaker 3: That's all going to be there.

00:03:49
Speaker 1: You know, we are going to try to create revenue with the podcast and do a little bit more on that front, you know, to continue to grow the business. But it's also just going to help a lot from an exposure stamp point for us to get out there more and to have a platform and a connection with with the Shield, right.

00:04:06
Speaker 3: Like with the NFL.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: And I'm really proud of the work that we did and I'm proud that, you know, we've been able to do this and and I'm excited, uh, you know, to be able to work with you know, the NFL. Heart you know, so far it's been great and they've been awesome and I only see good things, you know moving forward.

00:04:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just really cool. I mean it speaks I'm not going to you know, I'm not going to kiss up to my boss right now, right, but I think it does speak to just the work that you've done and excited about, you know, seeing your content alongside the NFL. So you might get like a push alert from the NFL. You might see a QR code and the bottom of a you know, the NFL network show. You might see some other stuff happening. You might even see JJ doing the mouth kazoo if you watch any of the Late Round Fantasy Football show off season podcasts, the mouth kazoo to Taylor Swift songs.

00:05:03
Speaker 3: Like maybe maybe maybe we don't know, We'll see we don't know.

00:05:09
Speaker 2: Also, draft season is gone now we're into the regular season, so we've got Patreon membership available to go to Late Round dot com. You can get all the weekly rankings and you can join the community the Discord. It's awesome. I have grown to love the Discord, and they have grown to love me. I hope.

00:05:31
Speaker 1: I think the Discord honestly is the biggest perk of the Patreon. Like, yes, you get you know, my rankings, and I keep on top of them and I'm I'm giving you guys rest of season rankings. Those will be out every Tuesday morning. Sorry, every yeah, every Tuesday morning. I work on them during Monday Night Football every week.

00:05:48
Speaker 2: You know.

00:05:48
Speaker 1: As i'm and as I'm doing it, I'm in the discord, like talking to people like, you know, I have this guy here and I can't believe, you know, because I compare my rankings to consensus and I say, I can't believe. You know, I'm just talking through it with everybody, and that's really the vibe of the discord. I mean, I'm just talking with everyone throughout the games and you know, tilting as everyone else is, as AJ Brown doesn't see a target until two minutes left in the game.

00:06:12
Speaker 3: So I'm right there with you guys.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: I think that's been you know, it wasn't even like the thing that I wanted to create with the Patreon's just the thing that sort of evolved in what created with the Patreon, and I think it's become the best community in fantasy football organic.

00:06:28
Speaker 2: Some people are saying, yes, all right, this is an interactive show. Just so you know, you can comment if you're watching this live, if not, if you're watching this later or if you're listening to this later, you can always go back to the YouTube and leave us a comment, and we look at all those comments and you might even be featured on next week's show. So Jason says, congrats, guys. Also hoping no one else finds you in my league. Lol. If someone does mention JJ in your league, Jason, do not say that guy's the worst.

00:07:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, just let it be, Just let it sit.

00:07:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let it be. We're getting into my favorite segments of the podcast. That's where JJ reacts to today's news, today's fantasy news. All right, Uh so I'm gonna list if you're again new, I'm gonna list some news items. J is gonna react. He has not seen any of these.

00:07:28
Speaker 1: That's the Nature show, but for audio listeners, because this will be hitting the Late Round podcast feed.

00:07:34
Speaker 3: The nature of this show is very much I'm reacting to things, and I like this section of the show. There's not there's not.

00:07:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you might break out in rash sometimes because like you're not used to that. You're used to like preparing.

00:07:45
Speaker 3: I'm a very I like to prepare for what I'm about to do.

00:07:48
Speaker 2: Yes, and I'm I'm more loosey goosey with that.

00:07:51
Speaker 1: I am with my everyday life, but when it comes to I know this stuff, like my wife is the one who's got everything together for us, like I'm the one.

00:07:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go do it when I But.

00:08:00
Speaker 1: When it comes to the fantasy football stuff and when it comes to my content, I like to be prepared.

00:08:04
Speaker 2: All Right, run CMC, run boy. This was a wrinkle yesterday, uh with report that basically CMC on the practice report with a calf injury. Yeah, I've seen this before. Your Your reaction is yikes.

00:08:21
Speaker 3: My reaction is yikes. Yes.

00:08:22
Speaker 1: So for the again, for those audio listeners, I type in the reaction in the spreadsheet that we have on YouTube, so you guys can check that out. But my reactions yikes because of what we went through last year. Now it does seem like I saw a report from doctor Chow and they were talking about how the the bad news is that this is something nice.

00:08:44
Speaker 2: It's a good news. Start with the good news.

00:08:45
Speaker 3: Okay, Okay.

00:08:46
Speaker 1: The good news is that this is not the same situation as last year. Right, good, that's the good news. The bad news is this all of a sudden could be just an injury that lingers that you have to deal with, right, And so that's like.

00:08:55
Speaker 2: I think he said he will miss games.

00:08:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, so like there's a chance he's that he's gonna miss game.

00:09:00
Speaker 1: And so you know my honest reaction because I'm a fantasy player too, and I'm not just an analyst. I play the game as well, but as an analyst too, like I want my my analystics. Because we were talking about last night's game and Jalen Hurts had a great Fantasy outing and I was like, yeah, that was one of my my quarterbacks to target, like I care about that deeply, right, And then Javonte Williams did that, that did what he did, And I wasn't as high on Javonte as I probably should have been.

00:09:24
Speaker 3: But you know, when when it.

00:09:26
Speaker 1: Comes to to CMC, yes I drafted him, and yes I have him in leagues and all of that more at market overall with CMC, the thing that just frustrates me and beyond belief is Brian Robinson is Yes, I said the.

00:09:40
Speaker 2: Same thing in the in the discord, I said me, I was like tiptoeing through the whole offseason thinking I I just I got away from all the b rob grenades, and turns out they're just money bags everywhere, right, right.

00:09:53
Speaker 1: I mean, like like I did draft him a couple of times just to be like maybe I should, you know, maybe if this does happen with the but it was after the fact, so like, you know, people know I've been fading b Rob all off season. I just didn't think he was a good pick in Washington. I think that that already was a w from a process standpoint because he got freaking traded, right, But now from a results standpoint, this could end up being really big for Brian Robbinson. Especially let's just say CMC, like we don't know what the report is yet today for his practice status and stuff. So if he's good, he's good, that's great. If he's not, and he might still just be able to practice today and be fine. But let's say he doesn't practice. Let's say that he's out this week. Isaac Grendo's already been dealing with stuff and it turns into the b Rob Show, and that's a problem for you know, at least my personal bags. But also just from an analysis standpoint, like he was not someone that I was aggressively targeting when he was in Washington. So I think it's good for Brian Robinson. I think if he's out on your waiver wire, you should be adding him right now. He definitely belongs in sort of like that rookie like i'd take him over like a woody at this point, right. Yeah, I think that the line is probably around like Ali Gordon. But yeah, I mean, like Robinson needs to be rostered everywhere. And I think if you're in a deeper league, you should still throw that dart at like Grendo and just have him stashed on your bench, because I do think that if both of them are healthy, there's gonna be somewhat of a comedian. Grendo might be more of the pass catching back of the two, where whereas maybe we see Brian Robinson be like a less explosive Jordan Mason from last year where it was like that three percent ish four percentage target share. But yeah, it's just it's obviously bad news for Christian McCaffrey overall.

00:11:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, I imagine we'll see we'll see maybe one or two of these guys on the fifteen transactions probably show. Yeah, all right, hanging with mister Cooper, this one was a good one, Uh, people rushed during the off season to add Amari Cooper, and it turns out he was like, nah, I'm good. I'm just I'm just gonna ride off into the sunset. So here we go.

00:12:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you get no Mari Cooper and you look at what they have, you know, at wide receiver Jakobe Meers, brock Bauers, you know, Myers can play inside out, but I think that they'll play him, you know, a lot inside So there's a lot of that going on there. And then they have the you know, Trey Tucker, Jack Besh. I think that they're eleven personnel works best with Besch in the slot and Jacoby Myers playing on the perimeter more. But they look, they move guys around, and when we say slot and perimeter, we're not talking one hundred percent.

00:12:30
Speaker 3: Of routes or anything like that.

00:12:31
Speaker 1: The guy, though, that I think is the biggest winner is Dante Thornton, who you know, from a prospecting standpoint, he was a highly volatile prospect analytically right in the way that I viewed him. I still think he's a highly volatile player, Like that's just how his game translates. He's a physical freak. One of the most athletic wide receivers you'll find. I mean, he ran like a sub four four at like six foot five to whatever, how many two twenty or however big he is, Like, he's just a bigger dude. Maybe maybe like only two of five, but you know, a lankier, larger guy. He comped kind of well in the ZAP model to Marteves Bryant, and that was one of his comps in the late round Prospect guy this year. He was one of those players too, who had a really good yards per out run rate, but not very good cumulative volume related statistics, like you know, yards per team pass attempt. Even though that seems like it's more of a rate stat, it's actually a volume driven stat because yards is cumulative and he was not good there. He was often the fourth fifth target getter on his own team in college, but when he got targeted because his a dot was so so large, when he got targeted, he was making these splash plays and so his yards per out run rate looked really, really good.

00:13:47
Speaker 3: The last couple of years we've.

00:13:49
Speaker 1: Seen this kind of like not they're they're not the same kind of player, but the same kind of analytical statistical anomaly and profile happen. One was with Pukinakua a couple of years ago, and then last year was with Lad McConkey. I would say objectively that both of those guys were better prospects than.

00:14:05
Speaker 3: Dante Thornton is. But I do think it's at least intriguing and he should be rostered everywhere, uh, just because of that, you know, do I think that he's gonna be Like the thing with Nikua and Ladd is that both of them can handle a lot of volume.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: And I don't think that's the kind of archetype that we're working with with Thornton. But what I do think we are working with is a potential big play receiver who is going to play a lot of snaps and run a lot of routes. And if you need that volatility in your lineup and that ceiling in your lineup, I would go for it, especially for rookie wide receiver.

00:14:36
Speaker 3: So add him now before next week.

00:14:38
Speaker 1: He's inevitably you know someone that that we're calling out on the waiver wire.

00:14:42
Speaker 2: All right, Brown and Blue? You know what this is about, right? JJ?

00:14:47
Speaker 3: Yeah? Is this is this a J? Brown and Jaden Blue?

00:14:50
Speaker 2: Yes?

00:14:51
Speaker 3: There we go. Yeah, here we go. Stinker.

00:14:53
Speaker 1: I'm just actually gonna put stinker as my reaction is a stinker. Stinker of a game for AJ Brown and a stinker of a situation for Jayden Blue. I was just okay, let's talk about a J Brown first. Okay, he throughout August had this hamstring injury. If you watched him last night, because I did watch some of this stuff, not not just the broadcast, but you know, rewatching some of this, Like, I don't think that he looked one hundred percent either. You know, there's there's some metrics out there, separation related metrics and open rate kind of metrics that didn't favor AJ Brown against Dallas. So I think that he probably was just not up to game speed. I wish we would have known more about that and not been as confident in playing him.

00:15:33
Speaker 3: But what are you gonna do.

00:15:34
Speaker 1: Hindsight's twenty twenty. I'm not going to be overly concerned about AJ Brown. The thing that I am a little bit concerned with is that Philadelphia has a new offensive coordinator. You know, Kellen Moore is not there, and I do wonder what this offense might look like they I haven't looked at the data, but I did see Mina Kaimes tweet that there was a lot less motion in that Philadelphia offense last night. That's never a good thing. Usually motion correlates to more efficiency offensively. And so I do have some concerns about this Philadelphia offense. And not only that Jalen hurts. You know, he escaped pressure, but he did not sit in the pocket very comfortably last night, I thought. And so that's also something that we have to to watch out for now. The Jaden Blue thing, I'm honestly a little bit surprised by how many people are so quick to just say drop Jayden Blue.

00:16:25
Speaker 2: He got dropped in so many Yahoo leagues. I think it was like right afterwards, I saw like it was at sixteen thousand. I don't know how many it is total, but I bet it's a ton.

00:16:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, And look, I understand the concern for sure. You want this dude to be dressed his first game in the NFL, But he, like AJ Brown, missed a lot of time in August with an injury, and he's a Day three rookie. And he's a pretty raw prospect too. Like he's not a guy who has a ton of experience at the position. He did declare early, and he didn't have a lot of work on the ground at Texas, you know, partially because of him and who he is as a player, but partially because of the competition that he was playing against on his same team, right, And so to me, I look at the situation, and Miles Sanders fumbled, and he also had that one play where he was caught from behind and he.

00:17:18
Speaker 2: I mean, the linebacker's fast.

00:17:20
Speaker 1: I forget he should have been able to score on that play. And so I think that we saw that Miles Sanders is relatively cooked, and you know, het the fumble certainly didn't help. And so I think there's a chance we see Jayden Blue dress, you know, even next week. But I wouldn't be dropping him like I think that we saw them use like Turpin a decent bit uh in a role that Blue could hypothetically be playing in. I still think that there's a decent target share upside. Now, I was wrong on the fifteen Transaction show to say that his forty percent you know percent rostered rate over on over on that site that I can't can never pronounce properly.

00:17:56
Speaker 3: Yahoo as you like, as you like, yes, yeah, yeah, I'm just messing with it.

00:18:00
Speaker 1: I know over on Yahoo like it's it's uh, I said that it should be like closer to eighty percent. Well I was wrong, Okay, that's that was an incorrect statement to make. It probably should have been forty percent.

00:18:11
Speaker 2: But it did shock everybody.

00:18:13
Speaker 1: It should it still should be forty percent. Like, don't let that one game. And the fact that, like we saw this with Devan A Chan just a couple of years ago, and honestly not like a totally dissimilar kind of like explosive back like Devon ah Chan was a better prospect, got more work on the ground, all of that.

00:18:29
Speaker 3: But like, just don't don't lose hope yet with Jayden Blue.

00:18:33
Speaker 1: And the interesting thing too is that I'm seeing a lot of people and this may or may not be foreshadowing for next week's fifteen Transactions calum and podcasts, but I'm seeing a lot of people say to sell Javonte Williams because you know, they didn't like him entering the season, and he comes out he has a big game, multi touchdown game. Why is it that Miles Sanders matters more for Jayden Blue than it does Javonte Williams. In my opinion, it just solidifies Javonte Williams as just seeing this easy work in the offense for the next handful of weeks, you know, And I thought, did I think Javonte showed like crazy burst and but no, But do I think that Javonte Williams could be like a Naji Harris type in.

00:19:08
Speaker 3: The Dallas backfield?

00:19:09
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:19:10
Speaker 3: I do.

00:19:11
Speaker 1: Like I should have probably been a little bit higher on him, you know, in the in the preseason rankings, just based on what I saw in Week one. You know, there were there were a lot of directions that william season could go in just based on what we saw last year. And we have to react to what we saw, and we have to react to to how Miles Sanders didn't look great and the fact that Javonte looked totally fine and normal. Now, the Jalen Carter ejection probably helped, you know, that run game a little bit. But I'm I'm cool with with Javonte right now.

00:19:38
Speaker 3: I be holding him. He's not He to me is not a cell right now.

00:19:43
Speaker 2: David Ross and how concerned are we about neighbors and his back injury? Well, good news for David because the next one is love thy neighbors, please, because it did pop up that he has a little bit of a back injury. We've also got the toa stuff. I mean, this is not great. JJ, you're saying he's fine. This is not great. Be cautious, but he's fine.

00:20:02
Speaker 1: I mean that they would they would make a bigger deal if he wasn't, if if there was something real going on there. But yeah, I mean at least follow, you know, follow the news and see what's going on.

00:20:13
Speaker 2: A tale of two calves.

00:20:16
Speaker 3: I don't know. There's a lot of calf stuff. Is this is this devon a Chan or something?

00:20:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, a Chan and Riek But they are absolutely on track to play on Sunday.

00:20:24
Speaker 1: That's not Tyreek Hill you send okay, Yeah, I mean it sounds like they're cool, but continue to continue to stash to stash Olie Gordon and I may or may not have a player later on the show that I think could be fantasy relevant in Miami that is not really being talked about right now.

00:20:44
Speaker 3: So we'll we'll we'll tease that.

00:20:45
Speaker 2: A little bit. Wow, is the name of a state, JJ, potentially maybe maybe the.

00:20:51
Speaker 3: Name maybe the name of a of a president.

00:20:53
Speaker 1: Oh, of an NFL team maybe Yeah, yeah, President Malik, don't give it all.

00:21:01
Speaker 2: A Kirk in progress. Christian Kirk is hurt, and now we've got all sorts of people talking about Houston rookie wide receivers.

00:21:10
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:21:10
Speaker 1: So I think Jadan Higgins gets a bump and he entered my top fifty as a result of Christian Kirk likely not playing this weekend.

00:21:17
Speaker 3: We haven't gotten. He hasn't been officially ruled out, but it sounds like he's not gonna play.

00:21:21
Speaker 1: So Jayan Higgins gets a little bit of a bump. Now, if you look at that depth they have Xavier Hutchinson. They just have a bunch of Iowa state wide receivers left on this team.

00:21:29
Speaker 2: Right.

00:21:30
Speaker 1: Xavier Hutchinson I think is more of a perimeter, you know, a backup for whoever they would want to have on the on the outside, which would be Higgins or Nico Collins if one of them went down. Christian Kirk was going to play the slot for them. Really attractive role in this offense, especially with this poorer offensive line.

00:21:46
Speaker 3: So I liked Kirk this week.

00:21:48
Speaker 1: As you guys heard on the Sleeper Show, Jalen Nole is someone that you should be paying attention to it is not know well, it's Nol. For the record, you will hear a lot of people say, Noel, it's actually Nol. He doesn't like Christmas.

00:22:00
Speaker 3: So Jalen Nole. I liked a lot as a prospect.

00:22:05
Speaker 1: I thought that he had some like Randall Cobb to his game, you know, sort of a can can can do things closer a lot of scrimmage, can do things after the catch, but also can get down the field well. And if this is his opportunity to step in and maybe see some slot work, don't be surprised if he's someone that we see on waiver wire in waiver wire.

00:22:26
Speaker 3: Columns next week. And he might be another player that I'm talking about later.

00:22:29
Speaker 2: All right, big news here. Juan is healed. Jwan Jennings miraculously healed. He's back in practice. He got the bag. Some are saying JJ that this little wrinkle in his contract as far as performance bonus bonuses that might have helped the healing process.

00:22:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes sometimes money can can buy health.

00:22:57
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:22:58
Speaker 1: I mean, look, he was something that I liked at the beginning of the offseason. He was a target of mine. I still kept him as a target, just because you know, towards the end of the offseason and towards the end of draft season when I'm doing that guide, I never know exactly where a player's ADP sits, and so I have to say just kind of look at my rankings.

00:23:17
Speaker 3: I like this guy.

00:23:18
Speaker 1: I don't know where he's going to really be in your draft, just based on all of these extenuating circumstances.

00:23:22
Speaker 3: So I like Juwan.

00:23:24
Speaker 1: I mean, like, if you look historically at players who have been drafted in the middle rounds like him, this is before all the holdout stuff from the injury stuff, who had the peripherals that he had in the previous season, they all hit at a very very good rate. And you can sit here and say, like it's a late breakout, but there's really no difference between later early breakouts with those types of players. And so I think Juwan Jennings. You know, he's not someone that's got a lot of speed. I don't know if he's like a true one, but I don't think they really have that true one on that team, Like even Ricky Piersall, I don't know if he's that guy. I just like the offensive environment a lot. I think they could throw a decent bit and they should score more touchdowns this year. So I like Juwan Jennings. I'm very, very very pleased that he is going to be playing this weekend because he's another player that I drafted a lot this year.

00:24:10
Speaker 2: Okay, we've got ran into a wall or this is Darren Waller had a setback yesterday, and really, I mean, Waller's not rostered in a ton of leagues. But you think about this offense, this Dolphins offense, they're just gonna like they haven't had a full squad to really play or practice with this offseason. They're gonna roll people out there, and really, the only two guys that have not been hurt have been on the starters are our Waddle and then the guy that you might mention later.

00:24:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean we shouldn't be shocked.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: He hasn't been playing football for a while, and he's older, and you know, I don't think that he's going to be a streamer until we see him run some routes.

00:24:55
Speaker 3: I mean, this is another reason why that guy that we keep mentioning might be someone who gets some some looks here in Week one.

00:25:02
Speaker 2: Okay, uh Nasei na Naji, Yeah, is back. He's going to be playing tonight. And I know this is for you if you're listening on audio, this game has already happened. But I just assume that he plays tonight. What you're what are you looking for in this game for future stuff?

00:25:23
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking for this to see what the split's gonna look like. I don't think anyone really knows. My expectation is that Mari and Hampton sees more work on the ground than Naji Harris, but you know who knows.

00:25:33
Speaker 3: That could not be the case. But I would say.

00:25:35
Speaker 1: My estimation, my projection would be like a sixty five thirty five ground game split between the two.

00:25:42
Speaker 3: And I would.

00:25:43
Speaker 1: Guess I'm just guessing, let's just say more fifty to fifty as as pass catchers, you know, because I think that that could go that that's the area where I think can go in a lot of different directions.

00:25:52
Speaker 3: So I'll just hedge.

00:25:54
Speaker 2: They're Nase going Naji getting more points in Hampton tonight. Oh, I just put people a tail spin.

00:26:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's very possible.

00:26:02
Speaker 1: I think that with with Naji back, you know, it's harder to be as bullish on a Marion Hampton, But I think him, you know, when you're thinking about range of outcomes, him missing all of camp and allowing a mari And Hampton to be the one and allowing him to get those reps and stuff, and that him show up and show off like that, to me, is is pretty valuable for for Hampton to be instead of that, you know, fourth round pick, more of a third round pick. But you know, look, I've said a lot this offseason that I think a mari And Hampton is more of like a floor play than a ceiling play, just given the offense that he's in and the lack of targets that typically go to running backs as Greg Roman offense. They also have some offensive line issues right now that you know from an injury perspective that I'm a little bit concerned about. And this is not an easy matchup against Kansas City, right So, like I'm.

00:26:48
Speaker 3: My my my answer.

00:26:50
Speaker 1: To this, my reaction is to this is don't be surprised if a Marion Hampton has somewhat of a dud. Now I'm not projecting that and expecting that per se. I'm just saying this is set up to maybe not be this like big explosive outing for him to hopefully he breaks one and we see that athleticism really show up. But I you know, it's it's not an easy matchup overall, and so I'm trying to you know, anchor my expectations a little bit.

00:27:20
Speaker 2: Uh deep in the discord, says or Deeve says in chat. If not she outscores handed, I will be tilting insanely hard in the discord and that's uh, we might have to create a new channel if that's the case. All right, Juji, I'm going like, I heard a stat this week, and tell me what you think about it. Prior to last year, Matt Lafleur, his first five seasons, they never had a pass rate under fifty four percent. Do you know what it was last year?

00:27:49
Speaker 3: Probably around like forty seven percent.

00:27:52
Speaker 2: Eight percent? Yeah, how crazy?

00:27:55
Speaker 3: What a sat What a stat man? No, yeah, don't worry heard it.

00:28:00
Speaker 2: You know.

00:28:00
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting is that someone did mention to me and it's a it's a valid comment to make that. I said that on the The ten Trends episode and then later in the show at the very end, I talked about how teams are running the Baltimore right how how over.

00:28:14
Speaker 3: But what I was trying to set to a pretty sizable exactly, there's.

00:28:18
Speaker 1: A big, big difference between Like I do think that maybe Green Bay isn't as pass heavy as they were when Matt Lafleur first got there, But I do think they're going to be more pass heavy. And this is obviously about Jaden Reid. The headline here that you've created is read between between the lines. Yeah and so yeah, I mean like I'm I'm nervous about Reid, right uh, And I would say I'm not going to type it into the reaction cell, but I'm nervous about Reid and how this foot is going to hold up. I'm excited for Matthew Golden, another guy who I targeted a lot this this this off season, and I want to see what that wide receiver rotation looks like in Green Bay because I think Romeo Doves is gonna obviously be a starter. But like how much run does Dantavian Wis get, you know, Like what do we see from some of these other guys that they have, you know, how much how much twelve personnel they run? Does Tucker Craft end up seeing a big, big target share as a result of Jayden Reid maybe not being one hundred percent. So we don't even know if Reid's gonna go because he has been practicing this week.

00:29:18
Speaker 3: We'll see.

00:29:19
Speaker 1: To me, if he doesn't go, what does that tell you for future weeks? I mean that is a very very big deal because the whole idea here is that he's playing through pain. And if he can't play through the pain right now, then why is that? And this is like a multi month injury, so like why would he just be able to play through the pain next week?

00:29:37
Speaker 3: You know? So I would be nervous about about Jayden Reid.

00:29:40
Speaker 2: And that stacked ten K charity league I'm in. I have Matthew Goldmi's on the bench. I suspect he's gonna be in a lot of benches and so if he goes off, will be great for future stuff, Yes, but I'll be tilting with deep and.

00:29:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think he's like a top three. I think he's like a Why I think I have him ranked as like a wide receiver three this week? So he can still you know, in some lineups, find your lineup unless you went wide receiver heavy.

00:30:04
Speaker 2: All right, that's it for today's news let's get onto today's data.

00:30:09
Speaker 3: Today's data, all right, So I like the transition. Yeah.

00:30:19
Speaker 1: I went to chat EPT this week, oh boy, and I asked chat GPT to do something that I've been wanting to do for a while.

00:30:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, but how do I reward my employees? Be specific? Yeah? Right? Right?

00:30:34
Speaker 3: And I asked chat GPT.

00:30:36
Speaker 1: Essentially what I wanted to see was, all right, we have ADP, and we have in season production, and then we have the final end of season points per game production.

00:30:45
Speaker 2: Right.

00:30:46
Speaker 3: And the question I basically asked chat GPT was when you look at top eighteen quarterbacks, top thirty six wide receivers and running backs, and top eighteen tight ends, when does in season production in points per game become more predictive of how these guys finish the season versus average draft position. Because we know crazy stuff's gonna happen. A J.

00:31:05
Speaker 1: Brown is not going to finish as a wide receiver eight in fantasy football this year, right, Like this is just more than likely not going to happen. And so you know, when when are things more predictive in season versus what we've seen with ADP. So I talked to chat GPT about this. I fed it a lot of data.

00:31:22
Speaker 3: It actually thanked me for the clean data that I fed it, which was pretty cool. Yeah, yeah, it said it said thanks for like it literally was like grateful that I gave them, gave it whatever, you know, whatever it is. H gave it the data and so the input.

00:31:40
Speaker 1: Yes, and so it gave me what it called crossover weeks, which I think is a good way to think about this, like when should your brain generally cross over at each position to think that, Okay, we don't need to pay as much attention to where we drafted these guys. We have to pay more attention to what's going on in season. Every position is different. Quarterback it's around after three weeks. You should look more in season. At running back it's around after four weeks, wide receiver after two weeks, which is kind of crazy, and then tight end after three weeks.

00:32:11
Speaker 3: Now, keep in mind, ADP is not the most predictive.

00:32:15
Speaker 1: Thing on planet Earth when it comes to, you know, how these guys actually finish the season. And so when I say after three weeks at quarterback, it's still not going to be like super super predictive of how the season is gonna end. It's just that we can probably not be like overly confident about the rankings that we're looking at in weeks one and two. At quarterback, we should still anchor a little bit to what we saw from an average draft position standpoint.

00:32:39
Speaker 3: The thing that I asked it though, I.

00:32:40
Speaker 1: Was actually on a walk today and I thought about this, So I literally pulled out my phone on the walk and I asked chatch ept, I said, when is it nearly like twice as predictive?

00:32:49
Speaker 2: Right?

00:32:50
Speaker 3: When is that?

00:32:50
Speaker 2: When?

00:32:51
Speaker 1: When can we look at quarterback and running back, wide receiver and tight end and say, okay, in season data right now, where these guys ranking points per game, it's basically twice as pretty as adp Okay at quarterback and running back, it's after week five or six, so it's a month and a half into the season as to when we can feel pretty good about in season rankings. Wide receiver, again, it takes two weeks basically for in season ranking to be more predictive than ADP among top thirty six guys, but it becomes more than twice as predictive like two weeks after that, so it takes a little bit more time for that to develop. Tight End is kind of weird tight end basically is like, Okay, the crossover happens after about three weeks, but that crossover is also when there's a lot more predictability at the tight end position from an in season data perspective versus ADP, And a lot of that just has to do with the.

00:33:44
Speaker 3: Variance of the position.

00:33:45
Speaker 1: And how going back to what I talked about earlier this offseason with the tight end dead Zone episode, how tight ends and that tight end seven to tight end twenty range or ten and eighteen range, how there's been no correlation between where they're drafted and points per game scored just plays into this where ADP is not very predictive at tight end, and so once we get a few weeks of data, we can feel pretty confident that those tight ends are going to be the ones that we should care about a little bit more than where we draft them before. Now this data does not say like, oh my gosh, if AJ Brown doesn't perform next week, then he's absolutely screwed. This is just a very high level look at how like like when we should start to sort of shift our mind, to shift our brain to not focusing so much on average draft position. I thought it was interesting. Hopefully you guys find it interesting.

00:34:32
Speaker 2: You know.

00:34:32
Speaker 1: I don't think that it's something that we need to, like, you know, write novels about and start like writing tons of articles about. But I do think that it's at least something that we can use and it's actionable for our fantasy teams.

00:34:43
Speaker 2: All right, good deal, Let's get onto the meat of the show, shall we see, j.

00:34:49
Speaker 3: Let's do it.

00:34:55
Speaker 2: All right? These are players that you like more than consensus this week? Yes, starting off with someone who used to be considered elite. Some have said that he's your doppelganger. That's right, mister Joe Flacco.

00:35:09
Speaker 3: Mister Joe Flacco.

00:35:10
Speaker 1: So what I've done is I take my rankings and I just compare it to overall consensus.

00:35:15
Speaker 3: I get that from Fantasy pros.

00:35:17
Speaker 1: I'm doing that on either Thursday night or Friday morning for the show. And the way that I do my rankings, people on Patreon know this is I tier them. And so you know, when I say, like, where I have guys ranked, it's usually within a bucket of sorts. And I know that you know, the rankings that I'm looking at don't necessarily have those same buckets. But I'm trying to just compare in contrast to see who do I seem to be higher on this week than the rest of the market. Joe Flacco is one of them. In my ranking, I have him in that QB nineteen to QB twenty three tier. This is this was pre Thursday Night Football consensus has him at QB twenty six, So I'm relatively above market. You know, he had five top fifteen performances in five starts in the regular season the last time he was in Cleveland. Cincinnati is a bottom ten second according to PFF. Cleveland's gonna have to keep pace with the Bengals. So I think Flacco. I mean, I doubt anyone's really starting him outside of a super flex league, but.

00:36:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't.

00:36:10
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked at all if he's like a fringe QB one this week. I like, it's not impossible for that to happen whatsoever. It's just that, you know, this week, every single quarterback starting, and every single quarterback.

00:36:20
Speaker 3: Is healthy, so there's a lot of competition at the position.

00:36:22
Speaker 2: And it might mean that his pass catchers do do something.

00:36:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like I've been fading Jerry Judy this season, but I think he's in store for a great game and some of the other guys too.

00:36:32
Speaker 2: All Right, this is running back and this guy is facing my beloved Titans. But I get it.

00:36:39
Speaker 1: Look, I think the Titans have a good front, like they should be able to stop the run fairly.

00:36:43
Speaker 2: Well Simmons sweat, yeah, they got Yeah.

00:36:46
Speaker 3: Like they should be fine there.

00:36:47
Speaker 1: But you know, Dobbins, I think is going to get the start and probably get the most work in that backfield. That's how I have it projected this week. I still like RJ. Harvey, you know, for long term through the season, but I like JK. Dobbins this year too. I mean, I like both of them at cost. But you know, given this is is the the game with the biggest spread on the slate, the Broncos are the biggest favorites. If they hit a positive game script, they're not going to throw the ball that much more than likely.

00:37:15
Speaker 3: JK.

00:37:15
Speaker 1: Dobbins could see a lot of work on the ground, So I have him in the RB twenty one to twenty six bucket, and the consensus has him at RB thirty. So I'm well above market with Dobbins, just based on the fact that I think Denver, you know, walks away from this game feeling pretty good, you know about their.

00:37:32
Speaker 3: Feeling good, just about about getting a w agreed there.

00:37:36
Speaker 2: I just want to see some flashes of brilliance from cam Ward.

00:37:41
Speaker 1: We might it's I mean, it's one of the toughest matchups that he can face to be able to show.

00:37:46
Speaker 3: So if he shows it, that's huge.

00:37:47
Speaker 2: Week one. Yeah, I have a feeling they're going to be throwing some exotic stuff at him. So you know, if I don't, I wouldn't hate someone if they started Denver Broncos defense because I could see a Peaks pick six in here.

00:38:02
Speaker 3: The Broncos are the consensus number one defense this week.

00:38:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there you go, all right, this guy is no stranger to our content since March. Yeah, and that is mister Meagbuka.

00:38:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love mechag Buka. As a player, thought he was a really good prospect. He ended up in the Elite Producer tier within the zapp model. It was him, Travis Hunter, Ttero McMillan, and Luther Burden. McMillan and him and Agbuka. Despite the draft capital differences, they actually and I like McMillan but the two of them only were like point three points away and zap score from one another's they were, they were pretty close as prospects, different different types of players. But you know, Aguka is now walking into a situation where there is a clear opening for him, right Chris Godwin's gonna be playing. Jerley McMillan is gonna be out for the first chunk of the season. I mean, who knows when he's gonna be back now. Mike Evans obviously still there, And I talked about this on the ten Trends episode. How like, I think Mike Evans still has it right, Like, he didn't show any signs of of falling. And but I do think that we should sort of just like assume there's gonna be some drop in production just.

00:39:12
Speaker 3: Because of his age, you know, entering the season. But I still think he's good.

00:39:15
Speaker 1: But regardless I met Gig, Buka is gonna walk away from this game more than likely with the second most targets, I think that he should easily hit a twenty percent target share against an average to below average secondary and it's a game that has scoring potential. So I have Likegbuka and that wide receiver twenty two to twenty four range. That bucket of tier consensus has him at wide receiver twenty nine.

00:39:36
Speaker 3: So I like Igbuka more than the market this week.

00:39:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a guy that I think that to us, Yeah sure, but like to someone who might have just started research him, might may have just drafted him and hasn't paid a ton of attention to the offseason. This, this might surprise him. Yeah, agreed. Agreed though, all right, this poster boy tight end, mister chig Aconquo.

00:40:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, thumbnail, he was the he was the thumbnail player I had this this one. I actually am pretty chocky at tight end this week.

00:40:12
Speaker 3: I have him in that like tight end eighteen to twenty range and his consensus rank is twenty one. And that's really one of the boulder stances I have at tight end apparently this week. So you know, I'm not really high or low on anyone. Uh.

00:40:24
Speaker 1: You know, he had a high rot participation rate with cam Ward in the preseason. I talked about this on the Sleeper Show. Calvin Ridley's probably gonna be occupied by by Patrick Sartan.

00:40:33
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:40:33
Speaker 1: Negative game script means more passing potential for Tennessee. Maybe he's sort of their outlet. You know, there's a chance that that's the case. You know, he's not much of a like. I don't think they're gonna just use him in line to block in this game. Like, I think they're gonna need him to be a pass catcher. And you know he's he's not like a bulky tight end that does that anyway. I mean, he's an athletic, you know, can you know, route running type tight end to be able to to you know, score points for fantasy purposes. So I think if this negative game script hits, Chicka Konquo could be a low end tight end one this week.

00:41:08
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean again, another one of those situations with cam Ward being a new quarterback. Obviously they kept really just Ridley nobody else there with with Burkes out, Westbrook a keen a out and so now you've got Lockett, Iomaner, chimer Dka who was drafted ahead of Iomner, Gunner Helmet. We got a completely different offense.

00:41:34
Speaker 3: Can we talked about this for a second.

00:41:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone's talking about Elic Iomaner and for good reason, right, But it's so crazy to me that during the draft process there's like very obvious players that are falling in drafts that you know, mock drafts didn't have them falling. Their analytics look pretty good. And I am in Or was one of those guys this year. And Jim ray Dka was fine, Like he wasn't a terrible prospect in my opinion, but for him to be like drafted ahead of him was just wild, and everyone kind of knew it was wild, and everyone then in the next breath, like during draft season, you'll see it again next year where they're like, what do you know, these these front offices know exactly what they're doing, and blah blah blah blah. Front offices get stuff wrong all the freaking time, all the time, and you can still find an edge versus draft capital. I think i Amanner versus DK is Actually I know they haven't played a single snap yet, but even if you bought into Ioman or over DK despite draft capital, you've gained equity. You've gained value in doing that from a fantasy perspective, and you can do that in fantasy like this is the point of the ZAP model, you know, the point of analyzing stuff in this way.

00:42:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think DK is already listed as the starting kick returner. They needed help on special team exactly.

00:42:45
Speaker 1: And he's he's, he's he's a very very fun player for like's he can be a tackle breaker for sure.

00:42:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, all in on the iomanner. I'm glad to see he was ahead of Van Jefferson on the unofficial depth charts, which I know, I know don't mean anything, but to me, they confirm my priors when it's something that I want to be true. All right, let's get to bold predictions for week one. And you've got a guy who Jerome Ford. He's gonna be in the newsletter as well, but you have him as a top fifteen running back this week.

00:43:20
Speaker 3: I like that. Yeah, it's both bold prediction wise.

00:43:22
Speaker 1: I don't I'm ranked there, to be clear, but both bold prediction wise. I think that Jerome Ford finishes as a top fifteen running back this week. That's my first bold prediction for the week. We're gonna have two of them every week during this main event part of the show. Look, there's a top tier matchup against Cincinnati, like we talked about with Joe Flacco. I look at this backfield and you have Dylan Samson and Ford, and I guess they're gonna address Rocket Sanders.

00:43:48
Speaker 3: I mean, is that they're three at this point.

00:43:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, saysn't signed, and so, like, I actually liked Sanders a lot as a prospect, so I don't want to like completely write him off.

00:43:58
Speaker 3: I usually would for like a random dude who's jump around to.

00:44:00
Speaker 2: You were excited about Sanders joining the Browns after he got cut, excited.

00:44:06
Speaker 3: From the perspective of like, maybe it's not totally toast.

00:44:09
Speaker 2: Right, but on the flip side, real quick, on the flip side, this just goes to a little bit. And if you are in the discord, you understand that, Like you have your zap model, yeah right, and so you like when the zap model gets something right. Sure, And so there was a guy that got cut.

00:44:31
Speaker 3: Huh we can say it Damian Martinez.

00:44:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, Martinez from Seattle, and JJ's like, well, ze model didn't like him alt, so.

00:44:41
Speaker 3: Yeah it did not.

00:44:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Damian Martinez thing, I couldn't. I mean, if you guys listened to my episodes earlier in the off season, like I didn't understand the Damian Martinez thing. I even talked about it on shows with other guests and stuff, And I mean, I'll get plenty of stuff wrong.

00:44:54
Speaker 3: I just it was just weird.

00:44:56
Speaker 1: And by the way, I think that the fact that Xavier Ristreppo and that's all gone on with him where he hasn't been the prospect that people thought or wanted. Damian Martinez now Elijah or Royo looks only one.

00:45:09
Speaker 2: Jacobe George is the other one, and so all of a sudden, you're like, you're.

00:45:12
Speaker 3: Like, maybe cam Ward is actually just a monster, right.

00:45:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, tweeted that out, but yeah, like all three receivers that entered the draft they all got cut. Yeah, and Martinez.

00:45:24
Speaker 1: And I keep thinking this too with like I've I've thrown this take out there that like what if Michael Pennix is just really good too, because we didn't see a ton out of Roman Dunda, even though I do like the Dunza this year. Uh, Jalen contrary to popular belief, right, Uh, Jalen Polk is obviously not him.

00:45:41
Speaker 3: And then Jalen McMillan.

00:45:42
Speaker 1: You know, got like like found his groove towards the end of last year, but it was a lot of it was like touchdown weighted, like it wasn't like his peripherals were that unbelievable and so like then you have to think to yourself, like, oh, what if Michael Pennix is just really really good and it's like the you know, the Zach Mettenberger stuff. Whenever he came out with was Jarvis Land and OBJ out of LSU, and people were like, oh, like they were like taking a stand.

00:46:04
Speaker 3: I know this is like ten years old and people don't even know who Zach Mettenberger is.

00:46:07
Speaker 2: But I remember metten Berger in Cash remember that. Yeah, yeah, right, he's a local high school football coach now in Nashville.

00:46:15
Speaker 3: There you go.

00:46:16
Speaker 1: And so like it runds me of that a little bit where it's the reverse right, the wide receivers.

00:46:20
Speaker 3: But then sometimes you just get teams that.

00:46:21
Speaker 1: Were just beastly, like like Joe Burrow with Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase right where they're just they're just all elite at what they do.

00:46:28
Speaker 3: But yeah, back at Jerome Ford.

00:46:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I took us off, that's my fault.

00:46:34
Speaker 1: Back to Jerome Ford, right, I think he's in a really good spot. I think he's gonna see the most snaps in his backfield this week because he's the veteran presence and he's been a two down, sorry, a two minute drill. You know, negative game script back, long down in distance back for Cleveland in the past, and that's likely the kind of script they're going to face against Cincinnati. Now, we said that last year Week one with Cincinnati, remember what happened with them against New England, And.

00:47:00
Speaker 2: So it can start off strong.

00:47:02
Speaker 1: You can't be overly confident in how game scripts are gonna go, especially early on in the season. With that being said, I think that regardless of the game script room, Ford will see a lot of work. I don't mind Dylan Sampson as a dart, but I think Ford is just a lot safer given its Week one and he's not the rookie, all right, like a rock Let's go to?

00:47:23
Speaker 2: Was that Chevy Chevy Chevy?

00:47:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, wow, it's never gonna Ford's never gonna sponsor this show.

00:47:33
Speaker 2: Next next bold call is that Manders question their decision to draft to Mary and Hampton. And we just talked about.

00:47:40
Speaker 3: This, we did. I forgot.

00:47:41
Speaker 1: I forgot that this was one of the bold predictions I put and now I'm now I'm regretting it because he plays tonight and so people are gonna listen to the show and the podcast feed tomorrow and be like.

00:47:49
Speaker 3: What an idiot and Marin Hampton destroyed? You know what if mar marn Hampton is him, if he does well, I'm gonna be happy because I have a lot of mari and Hampton.

00:47:58
Speaker 1: But I do think that there is a chance, more a better than decent chance that we just see kind of a lackluster run performance from the Chargers. It's not an easy matchup against the Chiefs. Maybe Naji Harris just sees more work than what fantasy managers want. I hope that's not the case. But this is why it's a bold prediction, right, because I'm thinking about the range of outcomes and what if Naji Harris does see a fifty to fifty split, then as a result, people would be like, why did I draft to Mario and Hampton in the middle of round three and into round four in my home league? And you're gonna be frustrated. So I could definitely see that happening tonight. But if I'm wrong, please don't have me.

00:48:37
Speaker 2: Could we maybe put Treyvun Henderson instead of Marie and Hampton.

00:48:41
Speaker 1: We could put Travon Henderson here too. Yeah, I think Henderson is in store for like, like, look, guys, with these rookies, and I know that I'm high on rookies every year. Yeah, with these rookies, you have to be a little bit patient, Like, don't be surprised if Trayvon Henderson has a twenty five percent running back rush here this week with you know, hopefully like a ten percent target shair. But don't be surprised if it's just not as robust and a lot of work as you expect.

00:49:06
Speaker 3: If it is, and it's it's rocket ships.

00:49:10
Speaker 1: Right, it's just it's game over if he's seeing, you know, the absurd backfield chair that we want him to see.

00:49:16
Speaker 2: Just don't be shocked, Amari and Hempton.

00:49:19
Speaker 3: That's right, that's right.

00:49:20
Speaker 1: Just don't be shocked if if things start slow with rookies. It's just how it goes in this.

00:49:24
Speaker 3: League, all right.

00:49:25
Speaker 2: A reminder to uh to like and subscribe if you're watching this, if you're watching this right now, even let's get let's get some thumbs up on here and let's get to the look ahead waiver wire.

00:49:37
Speaker 1: Yes, so I'm gonna I'm gonna throw some names at you guys each week to think about adding off the waiver wire now before you know, the week's games happen just based on what could go on, So obviously these are gonna hit at a way lower rate than like the fifteen transaction shows. So don't you know, don't think that like these are my priorities from the standpoint of like over what you're here, you're gonna hear from me on Tuesday morning. But with that being said, I already talked about Jalen Nole. You know, with no Christian Kirk, more than likely he might see the slot more than in the field in general, more than people expect. I thought he was a really good prospect. Didn't even think he was that. I mean, he's a very very different player than Jaden Higgins, but as an overall, like what he can contribute in the NFL, I didn't think he was that different of like an overall like score wise than than Higgins. Higgins definitely scored better than the ZA model. Definitely the guy that I would prefer. But Jalen Nole is a really really fun player. Like I said, one of his comps was Randall Cobb. He's got kind of that that style to his game. So I'm excited to see if Jalen Nole sees some work and if he does, he would be a top waiver AD Next.

00:50:42
Speaker 2: Week, Louis is Nol is a better whiteout than Higgins?

00:50:46
Speaker 3: WHOA, Yeah, people people believe like I'm not like against that coming to fruition at all. Like I think, I think Jalen Nole is a good wide out.

00:50:54
Speaker 2: It's hard for like we talked about best Ball brain after, you know, we've drafted three hundred teams in the offseason to think about like Nol or yet Nol being undrafted at the end and like Higgins being drafted before the tenth round, you know, really like in the eighth round.

00:51:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, he started, I know, and I was looking at my my portfolio, my exposure and best bottles, like I'm more underweight on Higgins than I wanted to be.

00:51:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like well if we yeah, and if we knew about Christian Kirk as well.

00:51:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would treated a lot different.

00:51:24
Speaker 2: Things would changed too. Yeah. We thought he was gonna be the you know, the slot guy right in there catching all the passes. All right. This guy, I don't know if you heard of him, Malik Washington.

00:51:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, we definitely haven't talked about him on the show yet, but no, Malik Washington.

00:51:38
Speaker 3: I liked him coming out last year.

00:51:39
Speaker 1: Actually, if you guys remember, if you guys have been you know, late round prospect guide readers, he was someone who didn't have great production until his final season in college and it was a late breakout for him.

00:51:50
Speaker 3: But he is a powerful, powerful slot guy.

00:51:54
Speaker 1: Like if you think about how Miami ran that offense last year with John Who's Smith, I think that there's a chance that we see Malik Washington play the John new Smith type role in the Miami offense this year. So you know, sort of that lower a dot outlet for Tua. Someone can who can generate a lot of yards after the catch. You have question marks with Tyreek Hill, like I think that he's someone in deeper leagues you should be rostering right now. And then if he plays a good number of snaps this week and if he sees like a fifteen sixteen percent target chair, he's going to be featured in some waiver wire articles and he you knows, his percent roster number is gonna rise.

00:52:31
Speaker 3: So I would get him now if you can.

00:52:33
Speaker 1: You know, don't drop like one of the rookie running backs that we like or anything like that. But you know, if you just have sort of an easy bench space to throw a player at.

00:52:42
Speaker 3: You know, Washington's an interesting one.

00:52:45
Speaker 2: All right, This next one hurts me a little bit. Yeah, someone who drafted so much Roushawn Johnson. I want to know if it hurts you also because of how you felt immediately after the Bears drafted him, and that is yeah.

00:53:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, So Kyle Mnung Guy, I didn't think it was that good of a prospect.

00:53:04
Speaker 3: I still don't think he's that.

00:53:05
Speaker 2: Great in guy is right now listening to this podcast. What's that Some people might not know who he even is listening to this podcast.

00:53:12
Speaker 1: So he's a he's a seventh rounder out of Rutgers. And you know last time we saw that happen was Isaiah Pacheco. Yeah, but he is not nearly as athletic as Pacheco was. He's had some issues already we've seen in past pro but I think that he could be like an early downgrinder for them. Now, if you want to make the connection of Jamiir Gibbs, David Montgomery backfield with Ben Johnson and say that could be Swift and Manung Guy, I would say I don't think Manung Guy is nearly as good of a player as David Montgomery, and I don't think DeAndre Swift is nearly as good of a player as Jamior Gibbs. So I think Swift is going to see more work on the ground than like Gibbs, did you know early on or just in general, like especially in week one, but Rochan Johnson still banged up. Kyle Mnunguy is a little bit banged up too, but I think he got a limited practice in yesterday, and so we'll see what happens and what what the injury report looks like. But look, if he ends up seeing some snaps in this offense right away, then it's going to be clear that he's the RB two. And if he's the RB two in this offense where DeAndre Swift, who you know, isn't someone who we feel overly confident being able to shoulder a massive workload, then all of a sudden, Kamanangu could be like an RB three flex type for your roster. You know, do I think he has crazy upside? It's more touchdown related, it's more you know, early down focus. It's like a you know, arbitrage off of like a Jordan Mason type player. Tank Bigsby type player, because I don't think the receiving upside is going to be super super strong for him. But he's definitely something that you should be keeping under radar even though he's a seventh round pick.

00:54:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I will also say, if you're listening to this, just know that we don't have the practice report from Friday right now. We have the practice report from Thursday, which says that Roshawn did not practice and that Manungui was limited with a hand string injury. If both of these guys, if one of these guys are out and the other one is still limited, Swift could also just have a monster he couldn't.

00:55:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, absolutely for sure.

00:55:10
Speaker 2: So all right, so let's get to the next one, Cedric Tillman.

00:55:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tillman's still rostered in twenty four percent of Yahoo leagues, I think, And so I'm just interested because I think that they're And I talked about this with Jake Seely on Late Round Perspectives that dropped today, and you know, Seely mentioned that he wouldn't be surprised if if Tilman just outscores Jerry Judy this year. And I don't think that's like a crazy, crazy take. Now, obviously we would, we would bet on Judy, but I don't think it's that insane of a take. Tilman last year had like a twenty two percent target year of the month before he you know, was injured and had that that that brain injury that that ended the season. And so uh, you know, in this matchup against Cincinnati, like I talked about with Joe Flacco, I would not be surprised at all if Tilman has a decent day and then all of a sudden people are like, oh, yeah, I forgot that. Cedric Tillman was like kind of going off before he his season ended last year. And so since his his percent roster number is as low as it is, I felt like I had to call him out as a look ahead waiver wire guy.

00:56:09
Speaker 2: All Right, this next one Niners defense streaming defense.

00:56:14
Speaker 3: The forty nine ers are still rostered. Not in a ton of leagues.

00:56:18
Speaker 1: I don't think the defense is particularly great, but they get New Orleans next week, and so you might want to, you know, add them now as a look ahead.

00:56:27
Speaker 3: But if I'm being honest with you, if you're in a normal.

00:56:30
Speaker 1: Like six bench league, five bench league, you probably are not adding another defense because you would rather use that bench spot on like a high upside running back or something like that early on in the season, so you know, you don't have to act on that, but that is a defense that we should be thinking about as we enter week two.

00:56:45
Speaker 2: Just something to look at. That's for doing. All right, JJ, That's that's all we have for the main event. It's time for goodbye. I want to do something where we pick out a few games and I'm scroll down. I'll start first with a game that I'm looking forward to. We're gonna put this in the quad box. So I'm gonna start with the game unless you want to start.

00:57:11
Speaker 3: You know, you can go first. You can go first.

00:57:13
Speaker 2: I'll give you first pick. You remember when you were playing basketball, give you first pick, and it's just like the ultimate, like yeah, yeah, I'm better than I'm better than you.

00:57:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you go.

00:57:22
Speaker 2: I'm gonna start with Lions and Packers about that. Okay, This game just seems just seems obvious as far as what we're looking at, especially from this Packers side of things and then from the Lions side of things. What's what's life gonna look like without Ben Johnson out door too?

00:57:42
Speaker 3: You know?

00:57:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, What's what's Gibbs? Like, people are talking about Gibbs being the one oh one, see what his Let's see what his workload is gonna look like, because yesterday they said like we'll see when talking about if he's gonna have the same kind of workload with David Montgomery. So I'm gonna go Liones Packers for my first quadbox.

00:58:01
Speaker 1: I think I gotta just go with Ravens Bills, Yeah, because that's the premier game of the week.

00:58:09
Speaker 3: Probably, I'd say.

00:58:10
Speaker 2: With Island game.

00:58:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, Josh Allen versus Lamar Jackson.

00:58:13
Speaker 1: I'm really intrigued to see how they how the Bills deploy their wide receivers. I think we kind of know what to expect from the the Ravens at this point, but but Buffalo is the the interesting one. Like Kean Coleman, I just want to see how he's lining up, how he looks, you know, Khluistik here seems like he's healthy, so he'll probably play the slot.

00:58:35
Speaker 3: Does Gabe Davis get run now that.

00:58:37
Speaker 1: He's back in Buffalo, Maybe he takes over for a little little some snaps for Josh Palmer. Probably not, But I want to see what this uh this pass catching group looks like for Buffalo.

00:58:46
Speaker 2: Okay, this next one is a homer pick I would pick. I would pick Jags and Panthers, honestly. But as far as my quadbox, the one that I'm gonna make sure if I've had just four four games on, I gotta see what cam Ward's made of. I gotta see what this Titans offense is made of. So I'm going home or pick putting Titans and Broncos in my quad box. And like two years ago, Shroud came out and shock the world.

00:59:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe maybe it's Kim Warton.

00:59:19
Speaker 2: Maybe you're gonna help score a touchdown.

00:59:22
Speaker 3: You're gonna be devastated if he's just horrific in week one.

00:59:26
Speaker 2: I am yeah, I'm gonna lie. I can't shoot. I'm an optimist. I can't sugarcoat that. I I will be a little bit dead inside if he's If he's horrible, I need to I need to see flashes.

00:59:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, brilliance.

00:59:37
Speaker 1: So I am gonna go Panthers Jags as the last game in the quad box for us. With that being said, I think we could have gone Bucks Falcons. I think that's a really interesting game with the firepower wide receiver. In that game, you get three basically top thirty wide outs by and then Darnel Mooney.

00:59:54
Speaker 3: Hopefully as healthy as we'll see uh.

00:59:55
Speaker 1: And then the other game that I thought we could go with would be Texans Rams.

01:00:01
Speaker 2: You're in an alternate and I say that.

01:00:03
Speaker 1: I say that though because I'm really I talked about this on the Sleeper Show. I want to see how the Texans offensive line looks, and I want to see some of those rookie wide receivers. And then obviously on the Rams side, I want to see how they split that backfield if they do any more with Kyan Williams, and then obviously with Matthew Stafford's healthy. But we're going to go with Panthers Jags, a game that I think is an intriguing shootout game. Liam Cohen, how's that backfield going to be split? You know, Travis Hunter, what's his role participation going to look like? Does Trevor Lawrence get a lot of rushing work? And then on the other side, is Bryce Young get a lot of rushing work? And the interesting report that sort of came out this week is how it seems like they want to deploy Chuba Hubbard a little bit differently this year, and that was something that I had talked about quite a bit over the off season.

01:00:55
Speaker 3: And so if that comes to fruition, I won't.

01:00:57
Speaker 1: Be mad about it, just because I want to see Rico Dat will get some love out of the backfield too, and I want the process to come to fruition and us see something. But I do think Tuba is gonna be a good I said this from the start. I think Tuba is gonna be a good fantasy asset through the first month of the season.

01:01:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me Xavier Leget going off on one side, and then on the other side, give me Travis Hunter going off and just like setting the world on fire. Oh, I can't believe we weren't drafting him earlier. Yeah, and then just let me know, just let me know for peace of mind, who their running back is going to be in Jacksonville. That's all. Yeah.

01:01:35
Speaker 1: I actually considered a bold prediction of Travis Etn being a top fifteen running back this week.

01:01:42
Speaker 2: You should have.

01:01:43
Speaker 3: I should That would have been a good one.

01:01:45
Speaker 1: I think that's that's like, there's there's an extra bold prediction for you guys. Also, when I said the Gabe Davis thing I didn't actually me and Gab Davis is going to get significant run. He might even be practice squatted right now. I think David's been mentioning that or mentioned that in the chat.

01:01:58
Speaker 2: Yeah he is, he is to squatted. It's Elijah, like Elijah Moore would be hilarious.

01:02:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, he is the guy that.

01:02:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, but no, I I I do think that it could be we could see some some some traves ETN. I don't think we're gonna see much Trevory TN. That's what Maddie is saying in chat. I think it'll be Rico Nadel who's splitting with with Juba. I.

01:02:20
Speaker 2: I will say that Week one is just infamous every year for just hilarious overreactions.

01:02:27
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's gonna be nuts.

01:02:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. And j J as an analyst, you, I mean you you are now used to it. It's like a sunburn. Now it doesn't it doesn't been doing over a decade now. I've yeah, it's right for me. I just I just lean into it. I'm checking all the mentions. I'm I'm burying my guys. It's the it's entertainment factor, it's emotional factor. That's that I love. So all right, that does it. For the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, Week one in the books again, shout out to our sponsor DraftKings. You can if you want a DFS over there and get an extra ticket free ticket you deposit five dollars, get that back. You can scan the QR code if you're watching on YouTube, and then we'll also put the link in the description and JJ you have any final thoughts.

01:03:15
Speaker 3: No, enjoy week one.

01:03:16
Speaker 1: Don't don't till too hard because we know that it's a long season and crazy things are gonna happen this week.

01:03:22
Speaker 3: Just enjoy it. And thanks for tuning in all week.

01:03:25
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it. Yeah, Yeah, it's been great. And honestly, as someone who has said repeatedly, I'm just so hashtag blessed to be in the spot. I'm the You're the only podcast I ever listened to really like. I mean, I listen to a lot of other podcasts, but like audio form. When I'm mowing my mowing my yard doing the dishes, you were the guy I was always putting my ears and now knowing that someone could be mowing the yard on a Saturday listening to me, gosh, BEAUTI dreams, dreams are made up. Also, just want to say, hey, Peter Overzett's on YouTube tonight. Yes, and that's pretty awesome too.

01:04:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, shout out Pete, our our buddy.

01:04:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, our our buddy Pete. So it's gonna be a great week one. Jj has been awesome show, leave us feedback, let us know what you think. And on behalf of JJM David, We'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football show sponsored by DraftKings