481: Mailbag 2/12/21

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: J zacher reson.

00:00:12
Speaker 1: What's up everyone.

00:00:12
Speaker 2: It's JJ Zacharyes and the editor in chief at fanduelin at number five dot com in this episode four hundred and eighty one of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network.

00:00:23
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:25
Speaker 2: On Wednesday, the Fantasy Sports Writers Association announced this year's award winners and tons of categories across the fantasy sports world. I was lucky to be a finalist for Football Ongoing Series of the Year, Football Writer of the Year, and most importantly for this show, Football Podcast of the Year. In the end, I took down Ongoing Series of the Year, which was the series on finding breakout players at each position in fantasy football. That was really cool, But what was cooler was taking down Football Podcasts of the Year as well. I put a lot of time and effort into this show, and I feel very, very lucky to be able to do this show as frequently as I do every week. It just means a lot to be recognized, and I would have never been recognized if not for all of you listening to the show. Giving me good feedback on it through the years and helping it get to the place that it is today. So I just want to say thank you all for being such big supporters of this show.

00:01:18
Speaker 1: Genuinely.

00:01:18
Speaker 2: I mean that from the bottom of my heart. Thanks for all the questions, the conversations, the feedback, all of it. And of course I can't forget thanks for tuning in now. Before we get into the questions this week, I've got to ask you a question.

00:01:31
Speaker 1: Did you know that racing season is here? Well?

00:01:34
Speaker 2: The Daytona five hundred is Sunday, February fourteenth, and if you place a pre race wager on a driver, if he comes in the top five, Fandel will refund your bet, so he doesn't even have to win the race. Sunday is only a few days away, so go download the Fandal's Sportsbook app and bet today. Must be twenty one years or older in President of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Virginia, or Michigan. Refund issue does non withdrawabal site credit max refunda ffty dollars terms apply. Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in West Virginia visit one hundred gambler dot net, and Indiana call one hundred and nine with it. In Colorado called one hundred fifty to two forty seven hundred, and in Iowa call one hundred bets off. The first question this week, it's an email. It says HIJJ. I discovered your podcast around the beginning of Quarantine and it's been something I look forward to each week. Keep up the great work.

00:02:22
Speaker 1: Thank you.

00:02:23
Speaker 2: My question this week is regarding some fantasy Twitter debate that I've seen recently regarding landing spot and whether or not it matters. I think, like most things in fantasy football, it's something to consider during the evaluation process, and it varies from player to player, but it definitely should not be ignored. So in your humble opinion, does landing spot matter? Thanks JJ, Ricky Garcia. I mean, intuitively, it has to matter, right. We know that a player's probability of being a good fantasy asset it increases when he's in a better offense, or I should say good fantasy assets come from good offense is at a higher rate. That alone tells us that landing spot matters. The problem is more so predicting those offenses and predicting those situations. I think that's where this argument really sort of exists, because if we can't project which offenses are going to be good, then landing spot doesn't really matter since we can't project those landing spots accurately, but we can to some degree predict which offenses are going to be good.

00:03:23
Speaker 1: Of the four main.

00:03:24
Speaker 2: Buckets of football, pass offense and pass defense, and then rush offense and rush defense, the thing that I've found that correlates best year over year is pass offense. That makes sense because for about half the league, quarterback is fairly stable. We have the same guys playing quarterback year in and year out for these teams. So you could look at the quarterback and say, oh, well, this offense is likely to be good because Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of this offense. Like, how often is the Chiefs offense going to be bad over the next decade as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy? Probably never. And then we also know that there are coaches who like to do specific things. If a wide receiver lands in a Bruce Arians offense and his average depth of target has a good chance to increase because the offense itself is one that tosses a lot of intermediate and deep throws. So yes, I care about landing spot, especially at the extremes. And I've got a good example of this back when Alvin Kamara was entering the league. My prospect model was different than it is today, and I wasn't that into Alvin Kamara as a prospect until the draft happened because he landed in the perfect spot for his skill set. He landed to a team that had a long history of utilizing their backs as receivers, and that's exactly what Kamara did in college. I do think talent wins out over the long run, and it's not like a player like Kamara would have been trash in a different spot.

00:04:46
Speaker 1: He still would have been good, But.

00:04:48
Speaker 2: Situation can elevate or push down that talent, and there are at least some ways to predict situation in landing spot. So yes, landing spot matters. The next question is from at generic Lions fan. How likely are you to make offseason moves before free agency hits. I'm very hesitant on trading right now, especially with free agency and the draft coming up. Am I overthinking this? Yeah? I mean I think that you're overthinking this a little bit. I would assume the main reason you're feeling this way is that you don't want to get rid of players before they find a different spot and maybe increase that production.

00:05:23
Speaker 1: They get better with a new.

00:05:24
Speaker 2: Team, and that's fine to have some fear of that volatility. But everyone in your league is in that same situation, not just you. I see this as a similar argument as drafting early. Some people despise leagues that draft at the end of July or in early August because so much can change in August. During the preseason, injuries will happen, But it's not like my team's chance of injury is any higher or lower.

00:05:48
Speaker 1: Than another team.

00:05:50
Speaker 2: And it's not like players only get injured in the preseason. Players are gonna get hurt in Week one, in Week two, in Week three, and so on. The truth is, drafting early can be benefit official for managers who know their stuff. If you're ahead of the game and understand depth charts and have a good grasp on potential breakout players, you'll get a discount on those players when you draft early. This is the same thing if you have a good grasp of team cap situations and reading beat writers and what they think teams are gonna do, then you'll be in an advantage. If you're not able to keep up with that, then yeah, I'd agree that you're better off working with perfect information when you make those moves. Perfect information being free agency is over and the draft is over, but you can use a lot of logic to try and see whether or not a player is going to stay or go in free agency, or whether a team is going to try to get a running back with an early round pick. Of course, you're not gonna nail everything, but neither will your league mates. You just have to be better than your league mates, and you can't be better than your league mates if you put in the work. This last questions from at CALI chief Nerd. There are two league settings I think should become the new standard, an extra game against the league median each week and tier PPR. What are your thoughts on these? Have you played with these yet? So for those of you who don't know what tiered PPR leagues are, it's where you get points per reception, where those points are dependent on the distance of that reception. It basically would mean that running back dump offs wouldn't count the same as like a twenty yard completion down the field.

00:07:18
Speaker 1: Which, yeah, that makes sense.

00:07:20
Speaker 2: The one thing that I would say to that, though, or any other scoring rule change, I don't get all that worked up about fantasy scoring because we're all playing the same game. Like, yeah, these random running backs who catch eighty passes and barely gain any yards from them. You might be frustrated that they're getting a full point per reception for those weak catches. But you had a chance to get that guy. You could have had him if you wanted him. You have to adjust based on the rules of your league. Now, I understand why people would want tiered PPR systems, and I think it's cool and fun. I'm not trying to be a hater. I just don't think it's totally necessary. Because we're playing a game about a game here, it doesn't have to be identical to the real game of football. Regarding playing two games per week, I think that's different. With the scoring changes, you're not really changing the crazy variance that exists in fantasy football. But when you only have a head to head league with no spot in the playoffs for points, that increases the amount of luck involved. In your league, and I think doing things to remove that kind of luck is a good thing. So if you're able to play in a league where you face your head to head opponent but also face the median score across the league that week, I'm all for it. I do that with the Apex Expert League that I've been in over the last six or seven years. It's really a great way to decrease the luck factor in fantasy and make sure the best teams are always in the playoffs. This best question is from at Will Harper six' one. Four what are your thoughts On James robinson going into next? Season should have a competent, quarterback talented wide receivers to help out in a defense that will give up. Points will he be a top ten running back once? Again So i've talked About robinson before on this show during the, offseason BUT i figured i'd bring this up again because he's one of the hardest players to really pinpoint and.

00:09:02
Speaker 1: UNDERSTAND i think this.

00:09:03
Speaker 2: Offseason in, ACTUALITY i think his STARTUP adp makes.

00:09:07
Speaker 1: Sense right.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: Now people seem to not be overstating or understating what he did in his rookie. Year the upside that exists With robinson is that he completely showed up during his rookie season and he balled, out and he did that while seeing really crazy, volume and volume is the thing that's stickiest year over.

00:09:24
Speaker 1: Year but that's also the downside for.

00:09:26
Speaker 2: Me robinson had an eighty five point four percent running back rush share this year and fourteen games. Played had he played a full, sixteen we would have seen that running back rush share record be, broken at least when compared to other players of this era or over the last.

00:09:41
Speaker 1: Decade so, like it's not a.

00:09:42
Speaker 2: Bad thing That robinson got lots and lots of, Love it's just that it's going to be, very very hard to maintain that type of workload year in and year. Out on top of, that you got a brand new coaching staff and you have a team that could. Spend The jags have the most cap space in the league right now and they have five, day one day two. Picks it's not hard to envision some competition Going James robinson's way this. Offseason even, though LIKE i, said he balled out this. Year i'm not a believer that you should automatically Sell robinson because he was.

00:10:11
Speaker 1: UNDRAFTED i liked him as a.

00:10:13
Speaker 2: PROSPECT i talked about him on the show before the draft even, happened and when he's already proven to be an outlier given what he did as an undrafted guy in year, one we shouldn't really care about that that. MUCH i just am probably slightly more on the cell side than the by side With, robinson not BECAUSE i think the jag should do a lot with the running back. Position If i'm running that, TEAM i Let robinson be my. Belcal it's just that there are a lot of avenues for them to get more competition For James, robinson and it's not like they have a lot of depth of the position right.

00:10:45
Speaker 1: Now and even if they don't get more, competition.

00:10:47
Speaker 2: It's still unlikely that we see the same type of workload For robinson as what we saw last. Season SO i agree with the startup. COST i think it makes, sense But i'm probably more on the cell side than the by, side even THOUGH i love him as a. Player this best question is from at SALTAZ. Ff does your prospecting model for wide receivers INCLUDE, bmi weight and or. Height if, so how much value do you place on physical? Measurables if, not can you discuss how much more valuable production statistics are versus those physical. Measurables it's hard to answer this without going into the extreme details of the, model BUT i can at least say that for my, model production numbers are far more important than physical. MEASURABLES i do look AT bmi and have some thresholds for size THAT i want wide receivers to, hit but the production side of things is by far the most important aspect of, it And i'll include breakout age is part of, that and then obviously draft capital is thrown in there. Too i'll talk more about that in a, second AND i should add that the running BACK bmi in size thing is more.

00:11:48
Speaker 1: Important to that model than it is at wide.

00:11:50
Speaker 2: Receiver it's one of the Reasons i'm not totally Knocking DeVante smith because of his, size because his production is incredibly. Good but hopefully that sort of helps answer your question production above all.

00:12:01
Speaker 1: Else But i'm.

00:12:02
Speaker 2: Still looking at other, factors including, heightweight AND. Bmi the last question this week is an, email and it SAYS, jj when draft capital is incorporated into data analysis prospect, models is it primarily to be used as a proxy for traditional scouting or more so how invested a team is in the player and therefore indicative of the opportunity he is likely to. Receive if the, former is there a risk of double counting the, data since presumably a club's analytics plays at least some role in which players get, taken and if, so is there a way to account for this or is the effect likely negligible.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: And therefore not worth worrying.

00:12:42
Speaker 2: About Thanks, Jake, YEAH i, mean first, OFF i think draft capital is important for all of the. Above it doesn't make sense to me to not incorporate draft capital into a model for fantasy when that's additional information that can help you understand what you alluded, to whether it's immediate opportunity or the fact that a team THAT i put hundreds of thousands of dollars into scouting thought that player was. Good, because LIKE i said on last week's, Show i'm gonna be. Wrong i'm wrong about stuff all the. Time what we can capture through production and by looking at numbers is not. Everything it's gonna help you increase your probability of hitting on, guys but it won't give you a one hundred percent hit. Rate but to this, point teams are not scouting players in the way That i'm scouting.

00:13:25
Speaker 1: Them What i'm analyzing.

00:13:27
Speaker 2: Is who the best fantasy assets are going to. Be what they're analyzing is who the best players will be for their scheme and what they're trying to do and what they're trying to. Build those are very different. Things and on top of, that the Data i'm looking at and analyzing that's not the type of data that these teams are looking. At teams also go through heavy film analysis when they're, scouting and that's something that's not part of my. Model so having draft, capital Like i've said, before having draft capital in the model is sort of embedding that film aspect of. Things LIKE i know people who have had great success prospecting who throw in grades from film websites into their model to make it more well. Rounded that's a similar way to look at things as you would with draft. Capital SO i don't really think there's any double counting going. On given the methods to get to these certain, conclusions they're just wildly. DIFFERENT i, mean, like, yeah productive college players are generally the ones being drafted. Early but if it's information that's objectively helping the model's accuracy when testing the. Model i'm gonna use that information all day. Long that's gonna do it for today's, show. Though thanks to all of you for. Listening if you've got subscribed to The Late round, podcast make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be, found and don't forget to follow me On twitter At Late ROUND. Qb thanks for listening, EVERYONE i appreciate all of. You enjoy your, weekend