AvTalk Episode 361: When saving money costs lives

AVT 361 Transcript
EPISODE 361
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello, and welcome to episode 361 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as always
with –
[0:00:16] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello, Ian. How are you enjoying fake summer number one in
Chicago?
[0:00:22] IP: We're done with that.
[0:00:23] JR: Oh, you're done. Oh, okay.
[0:00:24] IP: It snowed today. Yeah.
[0:00:25] JR: I figured, because that's happening to us tomorrow. You already had the whole
summer experience in Chicago, where it got really warm, really nice. Everyone goes outside. A
thunderstorm absolutely destroys everyone's day at O'Hare, and now you're back in winter.
[0:00:39] IP: Exactly. You just described the last 48 hours in Chicago.
[0:00:42] JR: Yeah. Yesterday was bad at O'Hare, like mid-July thunderstorm bad.
[0:00:50] IP: What made it worse for just air traffic in general was that it was a very storm –
[0:00:54] JR: American and United having 5,000 flights a day.
[0:00:58] IP: And 4,700 of them were to Kalamazoo. We've been picking on Kalamazoo a lot
lately.
[0:01:02] JR: I mean, it deserves it.
© 2026 AvTalk 1
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:01:05] IP: What made it worse was not just the severity of the storm as it impacted Chicago,
but the weather system was so large that it actually impacted flights all the way up into Canada.
The holding that had to take place outside of the storm itself, LOT was holding over, I want to
say, Northern Minnesota at some point.
[0:01:26] JR: Kalamazoo.
[0:01:28] IP: Yeah. They were way up there at some point. There were flights that were holding
super far west, like Nebraska, and then there were flights that were just trying to thread the
needle in between the bands of the storm, but it was not fun flying.
[0:01:41] JR: Cool stuff for early March with, I think, I saw reports of “DVD sized hail,” which I
think you have to be of a certain age to understand. But that's big. That’s really big.
[0:01:56] IP: Why can't we just use the metric system?
[0:01:58] JR: I don't know. It's easier to compare it to outdated forms of media, than it is to say,
15 centimeters.
[0:02:08] IP: Okay, great. Yes, but there was in fact hail. Oh, all right. We eased into things and
now we can talk about this week's news. There is a lot of it. Some of it good. Most of it not, but
we're going to get into it. By the end of the show, there will be a few bright spots and Petchmo
Air has a major announcement to make at the end of the show.
[0:02:32] JR: Wow, I love those.
[0:02:33] IP: Stick around for that. Let's dive back into the Middle East, where of course, we are
on week two of what is now a regional war. There have been numerous airspace closures that
remain in place and even additional airspace closures have gone in place since we last spoke.
At the moment, of course, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar are all still closed. There are
portions of Saudi Arabia that are closed, and there are now portions of Azerbaijan that are
closed. That being the result of a attack on an airport in the Azerbaijan exclave next to Iran late
last week. That resulted in not only the closure of that airspace, but the Azerbaijani government
© 2026 AvTalk 2
AVT 361 Transcript
moving up the line where aircraft cannot fly to basically, exclude the southern half of Azerbaijan,
which further compresses all of the airspace into about 50 miles wide passing through
Azerbaijan. The UAE is open, sort of.
[0:03:49] JR: Kind of. Varies by the minute.
[0:03:51] IP: The NOTAMs cover where you can and can't go out. We talked about that last
week. But there have been continued attacks on Dubai airport, especially as recently as today,
Wednesday, March 11th, where an attack on the airport injured some folks on the airfield.
Thankfully, not many serious injuries, but a few. There have also been flights restarted at Doha.
Not to say that those are commercial flights, but those are repatriation and rescue flights being
operated out of Doha by Qatar Airways. Those have been stilted at best. Looking at yesterday's
numbers, Qatar Airways actually doubled from the day previous. Monday, they operated 42 total
flights. On Tuesday, they operated 66. Not doubled. I'm looking at the wrong numbers. But they
did not double, but they increased from 42 to 66. From earlier in the week, they did in fact
double. Still rising, but albeit slowly. Bahrain, Gulf Air was able to not operate passenger flights,
but just get their aircraft out of Bahrain.
[0:05:06] JR: Everything out.
[0:05:08] IP: Yes. There was a mass exodus, similar to watching flights leave Oshkosh, where
they just all took off one after the other, after the other, after the other and got out of there. At the
moment, looking at open airspace, or operational airlines that are operating flights in the region.
Air Arabia is operating at about 60% capacity. Emirates is operating at about 60% capacity.
Etihad is operating well below that at roughly 15% capacity. flydubai is operating a little over
50% and Qatar is operating at about 12%. Varies across the region in airspace that is open, but
not really. These things are all minute by minute, day by day.
[0:06:08] JR: Yeah. DXB Dubai seems to be doing better now than I figured it would have been.
Depending where you look, there's somewhere between 13% and maybe 20% of flights
canceled. It seems like a majority of fights are actually getting out, despite an attack at the
airport, literally today injuring people. It really seems like Dubai is the only thing in the Middle
East, in that region of the Middle East, actually, really operating with some semblance of, I don't
© 2026 AvTalk 3
AVT 361 Transcript
want to say normalcy, but reliability. While others, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Kuwait, they're just
essentially completely shut down.
[0:06:44] IP: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, aside from a few specific repatriation flights that have been
operating in a banked way, they're not open.
[0:06:53] JR: Yeah. Somehow, I haven't looked at Amman, Jordan before right now. Somehow,
they're squeaking flights out pretty reliably.
[0:07:00] IP: They've been very, very punctual about their operation throughout. Yeah, that's
one of the, I guess, bright spots here. A little surprising that they've been able to continue to
operate flights as well as they have, but they've been doing it. Because of the airspace closures
in the region, other airlines from outside the region are adding flights to cover some of that
capacity, but also bring their citizens home. Air India group, for instance, has added dozens of
flights between Air India and Air India Express. They've added dozens of flights, mostly
operating to airports in Saudi Arabia and Oman, so that they can bring Indian nationals back to
India, but they and other airlines are also extending long-haul services, not necessarily in the
region itself in Saudi Arabia, or Oman, or Jordan, or something like that, but from their own
bases to pick up some of the slack for the carriers who are not currently operating flights.
Air India added a bunch of flights to European destinations, as well as a few North American
destinations. Of course, they added new flights to Sri Lanka and Malay, because you still need
to go on vacation as well.
[0:08:27] JR: Of course.
[0:08:29] IP: New York, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Zurich. Those were just the Air
India specific long hauls. Adding 78 additional flights on nine routes, totaling 17,660 seats
between the 10th of March and the 18th of March. That's a lot of additional flying.
[0:08:49] JR: Yes. We also see beyond Indian Airlines, we've talked about Norse adding some
flights as well. Then Lufthansa Group. Also, Lufthansa Prime, I guess you could say, an Austrian
also expanding intercontinental services at what they say is short notice. They say, significantly
© 2026 AvTalk 4
AVT 361 Transcript
increased demand, particularly for Asia and Africa. Lufthansa plans to add several extra flights
on short notice from the Munich Hub to Singapore, as well as two special flights from Frankfurt
to Cape Town and back, which are available for booking, as well as this one's quite interesting,
flights from Frankfurt to Riyadh are planned, but I guess, not bookable yet.
Austrian Airlines also arranged 10 special flights from Vienna to Bangkok and back, which is
quite interesting. Airlines are doing what they can to add what they can, where they can, how
they can, which is aerospace. The airline industry is a global thing. Just because the conflict is
in the Middle East, it doesn't mean you don't have people that are stranded in Bangkok trying to
get back to Munich, who were originally flying through Abu Dhabi and now can't. It's good to see
other airlines, I don't want to say see an opportunity here for profit, because hopefully, these
flights aren't very expensive and that they're operating and out of the goodness of their heart.
But I'm sure, there's also some money to be made here.
[0:10:11] IP: They're filling a need.
[0:10:12] JR: Yes. They are absolutely filling a need.
[0:10:15] IP: I haven't seen any accusations of price gouging, or anything like that. I'm sure
they're reasonably priced given the situation, because a lot of this is at the behest of national
governments. But they're still going to make the money, rather than Emirates or Etihad.
[0:10:29] JR: Yes. Theoretically, I mean, all of these are great, to plan, to do things, to bring
people home, unless your pilots go on strike. Then it's really hard to do much of anything.
[0:10:40] IP: Yeah. Of course, because Lufthansa has scheduled a bunch of extra flights,
Lufthansa pilots have decided that Thursday and Friday of this week is a perfect time to go on
strike.
[0:10:49] JR: Cool. Cool.
[0:10:52] IP: These specific flights, especially the flights to the Middle East, are not going to be
affected.
© 2026 AvTalk 5
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:10:56] JR: Oh, how nice of them. Thank you. I guess, strike season, just like thunderstorm
season in Chicago is starting early this year.
[0:11:04] IP: Well, it's a continuation of the existing strike season. This is the winter strike
season.
[0:11:09] JR: Oh, okay. I guess, we're just seamlessly transitioning to summer next season.
[0:11:13] IP: It's the shoulder strike season.
[0:11:16] JR: Okay. Well, I mean, you just can't win the Lufthansa Group. Hopefully, these
flights they've added, I guess, the Austrian flights will operate, because that's not Lufthansa. But
good to see airlines. Haven't heard anything out of the U.S. airlines adding any frequencies to
anywhere right now. But if there's any time of the year that it can do it, it's probably right now,
because we are not yet in summer peak season. Outside of these handful of airlines is probably
a smattering of other small additions, but not enough to get something like a press release, like
we did out of Lufthansa Group.
[0:11:47] IP: Right. Right. Let's talk about some of the other ongoing effects. We talked about
the price of jet fuel doubling last week. Now we've got some numbers. The average price of jet
fuel last week, this is from the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, helpfully named, they say that
between 27 February and 6 March, the index value rose from 271.7 to 430.3, with a weekly
average price for the barrel of 157.41. Up 58%.
[0:12:26] JR: Yeah. That means if you're planning any long-haul travel, especially to Asia later
this year, book it now before airlines have a chance to adjust, if they haven't already.
[0:12:36] IP: Some airlines have had a chance to adjust.
[0:12:38] JR: They sure have.
© 2026 AvTalk 6
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:12:40] IP: There are airlines that are currently adding fuel surcharges. Air India being one of
them. They announced pretty transparently what the fuel surcharge would be for different
regional flights, depending on where your flight was operating from and to. Then Scandinavian
SAS has also introduced a fuel surcharge and a few other airlines have either already
introduced them, or they are planning on to, or prices are just going up fuel surcharge or not.
Air New Zealand has suspended its yearly fiscal guidance, because “The crisis is expected to
meaningfully affect second half earnings. Accordingly, the airline has suspended guidance until
fuel markets and operating conditions stabilize.”
[0:13:27] JR: Oof. I guess, this is the end of the post-COVID downturn boom in air travel
resurgence, I guess. I don't know what you want to put it, but whatever good times were being
had up until about two weeks ago, they're gone. Who knows when they'll come back? Wars
have consequences. Some of those consequences are pretty inconsequential in the grand
scheme of things, but fuel is extremely volatile, both in price and exploding stockpiles up in
places is not great.
[0:14:00] IP: Also, not great.
[0:14:00] JR: Also, not great. This is what happens. Any uncertainty in the market makes fuel
price go very quickly high. It's going to take airlines a little while to realize that, but it's going to
happen and it's going to happen quickly at this point.
[0:14:15] IP: We'll keep a close eye on this and see where things go in terms of the price of jet
fuel, but also where ticket prices are headed. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they're headed
anywhere but up.
[0:14:28] JR: Oh, my regular fight to Dulles in July is now somehow $900. That's cool.
[0:14:34] IP: That's something.
[0:14:36] JR: That's the day after the World Cup. Not fuel. But hey.
© 2026 AvTalk 7
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:14:39] IP: Good luck with that. Let's completely switch gears and talk about an airplane that's
missing part of its gear.
[0:14:49] JR: Hey, it's Air India again.
[0:14:50] IP: Air India Express Flight 938 today landed a bit harder than it should have based on
video evidence that we’ve seen.
[0:14:58] JR: A couple of times. It landed a couple times more than it should have.
[0:15:01] IP: It landed a couple of times. It landed hard, bounced and landed again. In that
process, the nose gear wheels, both of them, separated from the aircraft. It landed safely,
stopped on the runway and there are no reports of injuries. However, because Phuket's a single
runway airport, there were at least 19 diversions and a whole host of cancellations. Because if
there's a plane stuck on the runway, you can't use the airport.
[0:15:34] JR: Yeah. There's actually video of this aircraft coming in, because this is very similar
to St. Martin, where there's a beach right beside the runway, which is pretty cool. I actually had
a friend from the Dots, Lines & Destinations Podcast on a group chat which actually at Phuket,
25 minutes away from departure of his flight, which obviously did still happen.
[0:15:53] IP: Still there.
[0:15:55] JR: Still there. So are a lot of the aircraft that ended up elsewhere. We were
particularly interested to see what would happen to a 767-300 operated by Azur Air, because
that's a Russian flag aircraft at this point. We can't just go anywhere in particular. There are
sanctions out there. But it diverted from Phuket to whatever, Hat Yai International Airport in
Thailand. I can't imagine there's much intercontinental service from there outside of a couple
regional flights. Looking at that one to see what happens, where that goes. Could be fun. Could
be there a while.
[0:16:29] IP: Hopefully, things get back to normal. They have moved the aircraft and the airport
has since recommenced, but obviously, delays are ongoing. We'll be very interested to get the
© 2026 AvTalk 8
AVT 361 Transcript
FDR readout from that aircraft, because based on the video, definitely a hard landing. Was it a
microburst? Was it wind shear? Very interested to see what was happening there and if that can
tell us anything. Because the approach up until that point didn't really look unusual in any way,
shape, or form. It would be interesting to see what that investigation tells us.
Korean auditors looking into the situation, not necessarily the aviation situation, but the
decision-making process that went into the airport design and construction at Muan, where the
Jeju Air 737-800 crashed into what was supposed to be an earthen berm, but was in fact a giant
concrete wall buried in an earthen berm. What the auditors have found is that that berm was
built in concrete as a way to reduce the costs associated with the airport's development.
[0:17:49] JR: Yeah. We knew the circumstances that it was there. It was not supposed to be
there, but we didn't know why it was there, I don't think until this point. To have this revelation
that it was there simply to save money is just something I never would have expected out of a
country like South Korea. This is something I would have expected somewhere that doesn't
have any safety regulations, or doesn't have much infrastructure. But for an airport in South
Korea to do something so blatantly stupid, like substitute dirt for concrete is just mind blowing.
I'm still processing that this could happen in a country like South Korea.
[0:18:29] IP: What happened was South Korea went on an airport building and modernization, I
don't want to call it spree, but a large number of airports were either built, or modernized. As
part of that, in building out the airports and then installing ILS systems to make those airports
usable in climate weather, they had to slope the runways at a certain grade. This particular
runway has a greater slope at the end, because it allowed them to save money on the
earthwork. They had to move less dirt and that reduced the construction costs. But in order to
put the localizer antenna at the right height relative to the runway, they had to build it higher and
they did that with concrete.
[0:19:23] JR: Not great.
[0:19:24] IP: A series of decisions going into the fact that we're going to save money on dirt and
we're going to spend it on concrete, and that's not going to meet safety regulations.
© 2026 AvTalk 9
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:19:36] JR: Yeah. I mean, from YouTube engineering videos, I've seen grading surface is not
a trivial task. It's not a fast task. It's not a cheap task. But then to go and then substitute dirt for
concrete in something that is supposed to be movable is just insane to me.
[0:19:54] IP: Yeah. I'm not sure, having discovered this, they have begun work to rectify the
situation, which is, I guess, a story as old as time, try and save money, something bad happens.
You figure out what happened. What happened was you tried to save money –
[0:20:09] JR: And it cost a whole lot more now.
[0:20:10] IP: Now it's going to cost a whole lot more to fix the problem.
[0:20:13] JR: It's also just mind numbing to be that nobody at any point in this project thought
like, “Huh, why are we pouring concrete here? This seems weird.” People do what they're told, I
guess.
[0:20:22] IP: Yeah, they generally do. Let's move on to some Boeing news. Boeing is once
again, reworking 737 MAX aircraft that it has produced, yet not delivered. That is because some
of the wires in the aircraft have some small scratches, because of a manufacturing defect.
Boeing says, it's not a safety flight issue, but they want to make sure that it gets reworked
before they deliver these aircraft. They have not said which wires. They have not said how
many. They have not said where they're located, but they're working on it. Good.
[0:20:56] JR: Cool, I guess. I feel like we've heard this story before.
[0:20:59] IP: Boeing for its part says, this will not affect their production, or delivery schedule for
2026.
[0:21:06] JR: Okay. Sure.
[0:21:08] IP: That's probably good, because in the midst of all these, it is now being reported
that China is said to be considering a large order for up to 500 737 MAX aircraft.
© 2026 AvTalk 10
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:21:19] JR: It's a lot of wires that they’re going to have to make sure isn’t scratched.
[0:21:22] IP: Exactly. That order is likely, if it comes to pass, and this is a big if, because if you'll
remember, last year, there was also an order for up to 500 aircraft that China was considering
placing that never came to pass.
[0:21:38] JR: Which way is the wind blowing today? Is it out of the east or the west?
[0:21:42] IP: Exactly. We may never know. If it does come to pass, it is likely to take place when
President Trump visits China at the end of March, beginning of April.
[0:21:52] JR: Just dust off the press release from last time. Scratch out the year. Write 2026
and you're golden.
[0:21:58] IP: Exactly. Separately, there is also a proposed deal under consideration for wide
body aircraft, where Chinese airlines would order 100 787 and 777X aircraft.
[0:22:09] JR: Now, that's more interesting.
[0:22:11] IP: Yes. Either order would be the first order for Boeing aircraft from China since 2017.
[0:22:20] JR: Yeah. This one would be, I don't care about the 73. Nobody cares about that. But
the 78 and the 777X orders, those are huge, but also significant, I think, in the impact of China's
faith in its own homegrown widebody airliner program. 100 78s and 777s, that's no small order.
Maybe that's a signal that they're not so confident that they'll have their own homegrown
solution to widebody aircraft.
[0:22:44] IP: But is the C929 expected to even be certified before the end of the decade?
[0:22:49] JR: I mean, would they take any 787s, or 777Xs by the end of this decade? I don't
know. Maybe.
[0:22:55] IP: 787s, maybe.
© 2026 AvTalk 11
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:22:56] JR: Maybe. Get in line.
[0:22:59] IP: That's true as well. We'll keep an eye on this one towards the end of the month
and see if either of those orders actually come to pass. Back in India, Indigo CEO, Elbers has
resigned, effective immediately.
[0:23:14] JR: No clear replacement in sight either, which means things were probably pretty
sudden. But Indigo has had a rough couple of months. We've talked about them a number of
times, where India put a new crew rest regulation in place, which for some reason caught Indigo
completely off guard, and its entire network has been in chaos for months at this point, and
apparently, chaos enough for likely the board, or whomever, I guess, to give the CEO the boot
and look for someone who can right the ship.
[0:23:47] IP: Officially, Elbers resigned, effective immediately, due to personal reasons and
requested that his resignation notice period be waived. “It has been both an honor and privilege
to serve as Indigo CEO these past years, since September 2022, and being a part of the Indigo
family, its beautiful growth story, and the steps we have made together in this.” That doesn't
sound like somebody who's leaving because they want to.
[0:24:16] JR: No. It's unfortunate. I mean, Indigo is a massive airline in India, of course. They've
outlasted a bunch of their competition. They weathered COVID. They have weathered for the
most part, Pratt & Whitney engines trying to kill them. This was just one issue too far. It's sad,
because it seems like a little more foresight and a little more planning could have prevented this
entirely. At the end of the day, that's the CEO's job. Things roll uphill, and this one was too big a
falter for them to, I guess, just look the other way. It's, I think, not all that many years, but a
pretty accomplished reign for him over the last few years at Indigo. It is what it is. I'm sure he'll
fell upwards, or whatever. Everyone always does.
[0:25:00] IP: Sideways somewhere, at least.
[0:25:02] JR: Somewhere. Yeah.
© 2026 AvTalk 12
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:25:03] IP: Time with his family.
[0:25:05] JR: Of course. Of course. He's got to go on vacation. He's probably booked on Indigo,
but he'll land somewhere, I'm sure.
[0:25:12] IP: Let's see. Just to round out this story, Airline Founder, Rahul Bhatia, will take over
as the interim CEO, while they search for a permanent replacement. Let's go to Brussels, where
we have the preliminary report on the SAS flight that decided a taxi way was good enough and
tried to depart before rejecting the takeoff and coming to stop far too close to –
[0:25:38] JR: To a fuel farm.
[0:25:38] IP: - no longer on a paved surface, and a fuel farm, than I think all of us are
comfortable with. The preliminary report doesn't give us a ton of new information. It does put
some flight data recorder data in our hands. The aircraft made it up to 127 knots over the
ground, which jives with the granular data that we received from the aircraft via ADS-B. The final
position of the aircraft is where we knew it was. But we learned a bit more information about
why it turned the way it did. It turned to the way it did, because the first officer said, “Hey, we
don't want to be here. There's a fuel farm in front of us and a fence. We should turn.”
[0:26:23] JR: I think that's the best thing they decided to do that day. That was a good idea.
[0:26:28] IP: Ended up near a taxiway, off to the side of one of the taxiways. Thankfully, they did
not try and continue this departure, because there is a fuel farm very close to where they would
have been lifting off from, so that's something. The other interesting thing about the report to me
was that the air traffic controller did not immediately want to interrupt them and say anything,
because by the time they noticed what was happening, it seemed like the aircraft was already
rejecting its takeoff. That's another interesting thing to me that there wasn't enough situational
awareness in either the flight deck, or in the ATC tower to see that they were not in fact on the
runway.
[0:27:11] JR: Yeah. All we have is the transcript. From the CVR, we know that the flight crew is
proceeding. They were going through their checklist. They were making sure there was no one
© 2026 AvTalk 13
AVT 361 Transcript
else on the runway, which ended up being a taxiway. They said, clear left, clear right, lineup
checklist. Then the next thing they say is take off runway C6, runway 07 right and then, yes.
They were going through the checklist. They were actually countering each other to make sure
that they were in the right place at the right time and pointed in the direction they were
supposed to be. But at no point did anyone actually look around and say, “Wait, this is a taxiway.
Not a runway.” What is this phenomenon called where it's something bias, I think, or you're just
running through the motions and not actually doing the thing that checklist is asking you to do? I
know there's a term for this, but I don't remember what.
[0:27:58] IP: Well, if you remember before we go and look it up and put it in the show notes,
email us a podcast@fr24.com.
[0:28:05] JR: Is it confirmation bias?
[0:28:07] IP: I don't know if that's specifically what we're looking. I mean, confirmation bias is a
thing.
[0:28:13] JR: But I don't know if it's that.
[0:28:14] IP: I don't think that's the term that we're looking for here. I will say, that SAS for its
part has said, “Okay, we need to install airport moving maps in the flight deck.” What that does
is it provides a precise position on a very detailed airport diagram. Things like this shouldn't
happen again. Good on SAS for that.
[0:28:38] JR: We know SAS has a lot of experience with GPS not working, don't we?
[0:28:42] IP: This is true. We mark 12 years this week since the disappearance of Malaysian
Airlines flight 370. As part of the effort to find that aircraft, the latest effort of ocean-going search
has turned up empty again. Unfortunately, they were unable to find any trace of that aircraft in
their most recent search, which concluded a few weeks ago. Malaysia is still working to find that
aircraft. There is an ocean salvage company that is working on a no find, no fee basis. I guess,
they're going to keep looking, hopefully, again at some point. This latest round did not find
anything.
© 2026 AvTalk 14
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:29:31] JR: Yeah, this sucks. It's been so long. I think this predates our podcast even by a
good margin.
[0:29:38] IP: A few years.
[0:29:38] JR: A few years. It just doesn't seem like we're ever going to know what happened, or
where that aircraft is at this rate. There have been so many attempts to find this aircraft, and so
many expeditions out in incredibly inhospitable places. I have a hard time believing it's ever
going to be a different story at this point.
[0:29:56] IP: Yeah. At this point, I almost feel like it's more likely that someone will accidentally
find it.
[0:30:01] JR: I've been saying that for years. It's going to be after we're all long dead and gone,
someone in 200 years is just going to be doing, scraping minerals off the bottom of the Indian
Ocean or something, and they're going to run into this thing. I think that's the only way it's going
to happen. Pure coincidence.
[0:30:17] IP: Late last week, the NTSB released its preliminary report into the Bombardier
Challenger crash that occurred in Bangor, Maine at the end of January. This was a crash that
occurred in a heavy snowstorm, where the aircraft was stopping in Bangor for fuel in route to
France. The pilot, co-pilot and four passengers were killed when the aircraft crashed just after
takeoff in Bangor.
The preliminary report has an extensive discussion on the movement of the aircraft on the
ground in Bangor. The amount of de-icing and anti-icing that the aircraft experienced, as well as
how long the aircraft was on the ground after it had been de-iced. They also included the CVR
transcript, indicating that the crew discussed how long they had after de-icing to get airborne.
[0:31:16] JR: Which was not long.
© 2026 AvTalk 15
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:31:18] IP: Right. One of the pilots commented that the standard time was 14 to 18 minutes. If
they had to wait more than a half hour, they would return to the ramp to de-ice again. The co-
pilot concurred with that. However, the charts included in the preliminary report show that they
did not in fact have that much time. Given the amount of snowfall, or the rate of snowfall, and
the outside air temperature, the maximum holdover time for that particular application from the
start of the application was nine minutes.
[0:31:59] JR: Oof. They had to get from the beginning of de-icing to taking off in nine minutes?
[0:32:05] IP: Correct.
[0:32:06] JR: Can you even do that? Is that even physically possible?
[0:32:09] IP: I would think, yes. I mean, the Challenger is not that large of an aircraft. I would
think that you could, on the outside, make that nine-minute time. In my mind, this leads to
questions about operation at all. I mean, if we're looking at these decisions, should this flight
have been operated at all?
[0:32:32] JR: This was during the blizzard we had. Was this in January?
[0:32:36] IP: January 26th. Yeah.
[0:32:37] JR: January 26th. Okay. Not quite the blizzard we had here, but yeah. If you're having
snow that heavy, you have precious few minutes between when you're able to de-ice and
actually take off, and this is why a lot of aircraft and commercial airports get de-iced and then
end up not getting out anyway, because it just takes too long to start your engines back up, run
checklists, get out of the way, taxi to where you need to go and actually take off. It's complicated
stuff, and a lot of moving parts, and in this case, they got the math wrong, I guess?
[0:33:06] IP: They got something wrong. Unfortunately, they got it very, very wrong. The same
situation happened at Amsterdam, where you had, not a crash, but you had aircraft that were
de-icing, and then driving around the taxiways, and then having to go back to the get de-iced
again.
© 2026 AvTalk 16
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:33:23] JR: That's how you run out of de-icing fluid.
[0:33:26] IP: Yeah.
[0:33:26] JR: Yeah. Should be sticking to Amsterdam for our next story, I think, because it’s –
[0:33:30] IP: Yeah. Let's go to Amsterdam for our next story.
[0:33:32] JR: Good news for airlines and passengers. Bad news, I guess, for people who don't
like airports and airplanes. Apparently, we've been talking about this for years, where the
government in the Netherlands has tried to reduce the number of flights at Schiphol quite
dramatically, actually. Apparently, the Council of the State, or whatever, this is a translated
article, getting from telegraph.nl, the Council of the State has annulled the amended airport
traffic decree on Wednesday. Meaning, they are no longer, I think, allowed to set a maximum
number of flights, which was quite low, and would have really, really hampered KLM's operation
there at its one and only hub.
I guess, that's it. We're done. We're probably never going to hear about this story that we've
been hearing about since June 2022. I don't believe that. I'm sure we'll hear about this again,
and it will happen. Apparently, the Council of the State said that the recorded number of aircraft
movements does not provide sufficient insight into the amount of noise. Basically, they can't say,
does the lower limit on aircraft movements really impact the people around the airport? I guess,
part of the equation there is aircraft are getting quieter and quieter, so to simply reducing the
number, have the impact that it once would have had, because it's not like you're dealing with
727s and 747-200s, or anything like that. Aircraft are quieter now, so maybe some regulations
around aircraft noise, rather than just lopping off the top 25% of operations. Makes sense.
[0:35:07] IP: Yeah, exactly. The one thing that the court did leave in place is the reduction of
nighttime flights, though. That's a reduction to 20, or by 27,000 nighttime flights. That, I mean, I
think, generally good news and no one had appealed to that particular decision.
© 2026 AvTalk 17
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:35:25] JR: Just don't go full Munich and have a hard cut at 11.59.59 p.m. Stay in the aircraft
overnight. Be a little flexible about it. That seems to make way more sense to me.
[0:35:38] IP: Yeah. Exactly. Let's head to South America, shall we?
[0:35:43] JR: Sure.
[0:35:44] IP: Do we want to talk about Azul first, or GOL?
[0:35:48] JR: Let's talk about Azul.
[0:35:51] IP: All right. Let's do it. They're reconfiguring their fleet. I'm not entirely surprised,
given the, I guess –
[0:36:02] JR: Exit from Chapter 11?
[0:36:04] IP: Yeah. There's that. But also, the lean towards domestic production. Tell me more,
Jason. Tell me more.
[0:36:13] JR: Well, apparently this comes from Aviation Week. Azul is reshaping its fleet. It's
actually going to prioritize its own homegrown E-195E2 growth and widebody connectivity, they
say, and stepping away from its Airbus A321XLR plans, which is an interesting, interesting
move. The quote is that I'm getting again from Aviation Week. “I still think this is a phenomenal
aircraft, but what's going to be the cost of that aircraft? When we looked at it, we were seeing
prices that were bumping up against a wide body.” That's really quite interesting. That's the
CEO, John Rodgerson speaking. That's interesting. I thought the whole point of the A321XLR
was to be a modest price bump over the 321 that is far away from the cost of a widebody
aircraft.
[0:37:04] IP: What I'm unclear about with this quote, though, is he talking about the cost to
operate the aircraft, or the cost to purchase?
[0:37:10] JR: Or the cost to acquire? I would hope it's the cost to purchase it.
© 2026 AvTalk 18
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:37:14] IP: Yeah. He's talking about the acquisition cost, which to me, I guess, makes a bit
more sense, given the demand for Airbus aircraft at the moment and how much Airbus can get
away with charging for those aircraft. I get where he's coming from. The other thing that I
thought was funny about this is how different airlines think about their networks, where you have
Azul saying, well, we have domestic Brazilian cities and then we have other Brazilian cities, like
Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Lisbon, and Port – How would the Portuguese feel about you calling
Lisbon another Brazilian city?
[0:37:53] JR: That's one way to put it.
[0:37:54] IP: I see he’s going with it.
[0:37:55] JR: Yeah. Azul's also been a strange fleet story. They're all over the place. They
started their widebody exploration with A330-200s. They've got a bunch of A330-900neos. They
had some A350s in there at some point. They apparently have two 767-300s, which I don't even
think I knew was a thing in their fleet. I think they're actually operated by Euro Atlantic, or maybe
they're not anymore. Maybe they're theirs. I don't know. They're all over the place. I can
understand why they might not want to introduce yet another long-haul fleet type into their fleet,
because maybe finish figuring out what you want to do with what you've got before you take a
new aircraft. I think that's a perfect transition into our next story with GOL, which is why I wanted
to do it in this order, because apparently, GOL is picking up A330neos, which will fly here to New
York and they coincidentally have the same exact configuration on the interior that Azul's
A330neos did. I suspect we might see a Brazilian fleet transfer happening soon.
[0:39:01] IP: Huh. Go figure. Yeah, so the ABRA group, which is the owner of GOL and Avianca,
among others, they will – GOL will be getting five of the seven incoming A330neos that the
ABRA group is taking. Those will be first deployed to New York, so good for you, Jason.
[0:39:23] JR: As all good things are. Yes, because what we need is more connectivity from New
York to Brazil. We've got a lot. I think even American flies in New York to Brazil. Multiple cities
and American doesn't fly anywhere from New York.
© 2026 AvTalk 19
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:39:36] IP: Well, maybe New York needs to be considered a Brazilian city of the north.
[0:39:39] JR: Maybe. You know what's not a Brazilian city? It's Cuba, I think. But we're talking
about American flying international. Hey, Envoy Air counts as American, right?
[0:39:51] IP: Envoy Air counts as American, but you're mixing up two stories, man.
[0:39:54] JR: I am.
[0:39:55] IP: Are we going to Venezuela? Or are we going to Cuba?
[0:39:56] JR: Oh, wait a minute. No, no, no. Venezuela is definitely not Brazil, I don't think, I
don’t think.
[0:40:02] IP: It's definitely not Cuba.
[0:40:03] JR: I’m mixing these two up. Yeah, I just move things around in the show notes a little
bit. Yeah, let's pivot and talk about American and Venezuela then. Apparently, we know,
because American was very quickly happy to tell us about this, but they sought approval and
now have DOT approval to restart its Venezuela operations using its subsidiary, Envoy Air.
Miami to Caracas, and Miami to I have never even heard of the city. North of that, American was
– I didn't know that – Did they have operations in Venezuela beyond Caracas before? I don't
think so.
[0:40:38] IP: I don't know if they did Maracaibo. I think they had other cities in Venezuela, but
I'm not sure if they had Maracaibo. But those are the two cities that they are planning to operate
flights to. They are going to operate daily nonstop service, though it doesn't say exactly when
that service will begin.
[0:40:56] JR: I got my stories confused, because between Cuba and Venezuela, starting flights,
stopping flights, American’s always involved in that. American loves flying to these weird places
that other airlines are a little more timid to. Apparently, Cuba has extended its jet fuel shortage
warning through the beginning of April. They're probably going to welcome everyone else from
© 2026 AvTalk 20
AVT 361 Transcript
Asia to the club and say, “Hey, we started it first, because the way things are going, fuel is going
to become problematic for everyone.” This iteration started in Cuba, but for an entirely different
reason, but also involved Venezuela. That's fun.
[0:41:30] IP: Back in the US, Spirit Airlines is planning to exit its bankruptcy protection in the
near future. As part of that, they are recalling 500 furloughed pilots. Though that's not as great
as it sounds, because they're recalling them due to attrition of existing pilots who were not
furloughed in the first place.
[0:41:54] JR: Yes. Lots of Spirit pilots have jumped ship elsewhere, while the opportunity is still
there. I guess, that's good news for the furloughed pilots. What a way to get your job back, I
guess.
[0:42:05] IP: Right. Spirit for its part is also discussing things about Chicago with the FAA. We
talked about this last week, where United and American are just hitting each other in the face
with the sheer number of flights. The FAA has said, okay, we're looking at 2,800 for the number
of flights to operate, because we think that's a reasonable number. It's up from 2,600 and
change from last year, but it's nowhere near the more than 3,000 you two wanted to operate
during the summer. That said, Spirit says, “Hey, FAA. That sounds great. But you need to make
sure that the reductions come from those airlines.” Because, “At O'Hare, the congestion is a
direct and foreseeable consequence of a deliberate scheduling arms race between the airports
to dominant carriers.” I mean, they're not wrong.
[0:43:02] JR: No. They are completely correct for wanting the FAA to reduce only American and
United's flights, because what does Spirit even have left? Didn’t they sell all their gates and their
access to the employee cafeteria, or whatever?
[0:43:18] IP: That's one of their points. What Spirit wants the FAA to do in making these
reductions, exempt carriers operating 23, or fewer daily round trips from O'Hare from any –
[0:43:27] JR: Oh, does Spirit operate 23, exactly 23 daily flights? That's a weird number to pick.
© 2026 AvTalk 21
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:43:34] IP: Yeah. Grant prior reduction credits for any documented reductions in scheduled
operations the airport during the preceding year, which means give us credit for selling two of
our gates to American and United.
[0:43:43] JR: Yeah. No, no, no. I agree with Spirit in principle here. But in practice, they're
looking to get partial credit for things they have already done for very different reasons.
[0:43:53] IP: Exactly. Exactly.
[0:43:54] JR: I don't think it should work that way. But I appreciate the lawyering here is
admirable.
[0:43:58] IP: Then establish a proportion reduction in daily operations out of O'Hare based on
the magnitude of each carries increasing their schedule compared to summer 2020 baseline. I
mean, that makes the obvious play here. I mean, that to me is what they should do.
[0:44:11] JR: More runways.
[0:44:15] IP: And I’m looking like a waffle fry.
[0:44:17] JR: Annex Milwaukee, and just pave a new runway over it.
[0:44:21] IP: Oh, boy. Eventually. We'll get there. Let's head north to Toronto, because this just
got very interesting.
[0:44:33] IP: Yeah, you wanted to cut this story at first, but because I only led with the boring
news that yay –
[0:44:38] IP: You buried the lead.
[0:44:39] JR: I did bury lead. Billy Bishop Airport as on schedule as they said, has opened its
US CBP facility, which allows it to operate to airports in the U.S. that do not have a CBP facility
chiefly, and I think solely, New York, LaGuardia, all things come back to New York, because
© 2026 AvTalk 22
AVT 361 Transcript
order in Air Canada already had plenty of flights to the U.S. or I think maybe only Porter. I don't
know if Air Canada had any U.S. flights, but they will now. I believe starting on the 29th, Air
Canada Express, Jazz, whatever starts four daily flights from Toronto City to New York using
this new CBB facility.
We are again seeing the little airport right in downtown Toronto become subject of a heated
debate now, because apparently, Ontario's Premier, Doug Ford, who I – I mean, I'm not even
Canadian, let alone do I live in the greater Toronto area, I'm not a big fan of him, but he has
taken interest in Billy Bishop Airport once again, calling it a crown jewel and wants to reclassify
the airport, I guess, as completely provincial territory, property. Because apparently, it is
currently split between the City of Toronto, the Toronto Port Authority and the federal
government. The city owns about 20% of the land, according to this article I'm reading from
CBC. Apparently, Doug Ford wants it from selfie, wants to extend the runway and introduce jet
aircraft, which is the big piece of this story.
This is something that anyone who has followed this story knows Porter wanted to do, almost
did was going to acquire the A220 back when it was not the A220. It was the Bombardier C-
series. That never happened. They ended up getting the Embraer E2, ended up going to
Pearson. But hey, jet aircrafter are back on the menu, boys, maybe.
[0:46:33] IP: What's old is new again, what's new will be old soon. I can't imagine that they can
do this without spending a ton of money. To spend a ton of money, it seems like they're going to
need to get more approval than just Doug Ford saying, “I want to do this.”
[0:46:50] JR: Yeah, there is physically no space left to extend this runway. If they extend the
runway, it will have to be a man-made extension into the water, which is not cheap. Just ask any
of the airports around the world who have done that and now are seeing their airport sink, which
is not great. This is a really expensive, really time consuming and really involved thing.
Apparently, they said, the federal deadline for the runway extension is July 2027. Things are
either going to move real fast, or not at all real fast. I wouldn't mind flying Porter on an E2 now
to Billy Bishop from New York. That'd be fun. A culmination of a couple of different pieces of
news.
© 2026 AvTalk 23
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:47:32] IP: Yeah, absolutely. I would not be against that, but we'll see how long it takes for that
if it ever comes to fruition. One of the aircraft I have never, ever wanted to fly on was Emirates II
Class A380s. Poor me, I will never have that opportunity, because they're going away.
[0:47:55] JR: They had 615 seats. 58 business class, 557 economy. They didn't even have
premium economy on that thing. Not even Emirates isn't immune to the, well, maybe up until
last week, the boom in premium travel. They will be going to 569 seats, increasing all the way
up to 76 business class seats, 56 premium economy, and all the way down to 437 economy
seats. First aircraft in April, maybe. At this point, who knows? Full refit done by November.
Again, who knows? Anything with the [inaudible 0:48:29] airlines at this point, just completely
hypothetical right now. But yeah, the highest capacity aircraft, coming down quite a bit. I don't
think I pine for the days of Trans-Aero being out there saying, “We'll cram 850 people in an
A380.” Those days never came to pass, but whatever reality that would have been.
[0:48:47] IP: Oh, man. It'll happen eventually at some point on some secondary market
somewhere. But I don't ever want to know where that is and I don't want to find it.
[0:48:56] JR: You kind of do, though, right? You kind of do.
[0:48:58] IP: I kind of do. I kind of do.
[0:49:00] JR: You kind of do.
[0:49:00] IP: Part of me wants to. Let's run through some final things to end the episode. Jason,
there was a story earlier this week that said a Ryanair 737 had been impounded and
repossessed and taken over, because of a small bill that Ryanair had not paid. As it turns out,
it's really just a parking ticket and a sticker. I literally mean sticker.
[0:49:26] JR: Yeah, it's a sticker. If it's anything like New York, a parking ticket is a badge of
honor and you could just keep going about your day and not even take it off the windshield and
hope you don't get another ticket. Because apparently, that's how things work here. But this
Ryanair 737 wasn't really repossessed, but I guess, where was this again? I accidentally closed
the window and I'm not even sure where it happened anymore. But was it in a –
© 2026 AvTalk 24
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:49:47] IP: Yes. What happened was is that Ryanair –
[0:49:51] JR: I know what happened. I don't remember where it happened.
[0:49:53] IP: Oh, oh, oh, okay. Now, I've lost it.
[0:49:56] JR: Oh, you're going to make me go look at mine.
[0:49:57] IP: Linz. It was Linz.
[0:49:58] JR: There it is. Thank you. Because it's not an airport I'm familiar with at all,
whatsoever. Apparently, Ryanair owed a passenger 890 in, I guess, compensation for a
canceled flight in 2024, and they didn't pay up, as airlines sometimes do not. Ryanair is not
alone in that. But if you know the right people, you go through the right process, you fill out the
right paperwork, it is not a unique circumstance where an entire aircraft can be repossessed, or
impounded, or grounded. In this case, that's exactly what happened to a Ryanair 737 in Linz.
But it wasn't really impounded. They slapped a sticker on it. They had a 90-minute turn, which
Ryanair may as well be impounding an aircraft. 90 minutes on the ground without flying in the
air. That's crazy for Ryanair.
What it actually means, apparently, is that they can operate the aircraft. They just cannot
dispose of the aircraft and they, I guess, they have to keep operating it until they settle this. I
don't know. It wasn't impounded. It wasn't repo’d. It was just –
[0:51:03] IP: It’s not impounded, but it is legally seized.
[0:51:06] JR: There you go. They can keep using it.
[0:51:09] IP: Yeah. Ryanair gets to keep its plane, but that aircraft indicates an outstanding
debt. Ryanair can't do anything to legally get rid of that particular aircraft now, because it has
technically been seized.
© 2026 AvTalk 25
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:51:27] JR: Good stuff.
[0:51:28] IP: Laws are strange sometimes. But here we are. Ryanair owes this guy 890 euros,
and that includes interest and legal fees. The actual amount of money that they could have paid
him was even less.
[0:51:43] JR: Good stuff. Good stuff.
[0:51:46] IP: Jason, we've talked before about how Pakistan International Airlines is the one
airline that URI would never want to run. But there's one part of Pakistan International Airlines
that would actually be pretty interesting in front –
[0:51:58] JR: Probably the only valuable thing.
[0:52:00] IP: That's the Roosevelt Hotel in New York, which is, for some reason, owned by
Pakistan International Airlines. Well, the Pakistani government has now said, no, you can't sell
the hotel to JPMorgan Chase, which has its global headquarters next door.
[0:52:20] JR: Yeah. Do you know why they said no, because this seems like a no-brainer, free
money?
[0:52:26] IP: What they want to have happen is they want to retain ownership of the property
and redevelop it into a skyscraper.
[0:52:37] JR: That's expensive. Do they have the means to do that? Because building here in
New York is probably the most expensive place in the world to do that.
[0:52:45] IP: Yeah, exactly. There was a 2019 paper report finding by consultancy that said,
“Hey, you should probably not have a hotel here anymore. What you should do is turn this into
an office tower. Put a hotel in the office tower, but make it big. Then you can charge people rent
for a variety of other things.” Then they said, “Okay, let's do that.” They tried to find a buyer for
the hotel. They signed an agreement with JLL and JLL said, “No, we can't do it.” Then COVID
hit and then they signed an agreement with the city of New York to house people seeking
© 2026 AvTalk 26
AVT 361 Transcript
asylum in the U.S. Then the city canceled that in 2025. Then they said, “Please, Pakistani
government, can we have some money to run the hotel?” The government said, no. Now they
also say, “But you also can't sell it.”
[0:53:43] JR: Yeah, don't really understand this logic even one bit.
[0:53:47] IP: Well, if you don't understand that logic, Jason, you're never going to get this next
story.
[0:53:52] JR: Okay. What is it?
[0:53:53] IP: I'm going to buy a pair of 757s.
[0:53:56] JR: I like it.
[0:53:56] IP: Only one of which has engines and a part 121 certificate, and I'm going to start my
own airline.
[0:54:02] JR: I like every part of that. 757s, a couple working engines, a certificate to actually
operate them. What's the catch?
[0:54:11] IP: I mean, I think the catch is trying to start an airline and thinking that it could
possibly work.
[0:54:17] JR: Yeah. 757s and two working engines. That's good. You only need two to run one
of them.
[0:54:23] IP: No, it's three 757s. Two have engines. One does not. This comes out of the now,
what's a nice word, completely and utterly failed New Pacific Airlines.
[0:54:34] JR: Ooh. That's harsh.
© 2026 AvTalk 27
AVT 361 Transcript
[0:54:37] IP: They were operating, they were trying to start an airline and become the Icelandair
of the West.
[0:54:43] JR: It was a good plan. It was a good plan.
[0:54:45] IP: It was a good plan, until it wasn't when you can't operate over water, because you
don't have ETOPS, or a variety of other things like, hey, you can't use Russian airspace, things
like that. But now, they're trying to auction off those aircraft. The nice thing about this is that you
can also get part 121 certification in the purchase package. If you're set up to operate an airline,
you've got some engines, you've got some aircraft, and you've got a part 121 cert. Somebody
who is not me, go for it.
[0:55:16] JR: Literally no downside.
[0:55:18] IP: No. What could possibly go wrong?
[0:55:20] JR: Yeah. If you want to operate a trio of ex-US Airways, ex-American, ex-New
Pacific, ex-whatever airlines, you could do it. I dare you.
[0:55:30] IP: You do it. I dare you. That's the best reason to start an airline ever. Someone
dared you to do it.
[0:55:36] JR: There are worse ideas to start an airline. I guarantee it.
[0:55:42] IP: All right. On that note, I think we can say that this episode is over.
[0:55:45] JR: Uh-huh.
[0:55:47] IP: This has been episode 361 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as always with –
[0:55:55] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
© 2026 AvTalk 28