AvTalk Episode 380: A Whale of a time

AVT 380 Transcript
EPISODE 380
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello and welcome to episode 380 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here and always
with –
[0:00:15] JR: Jason Rabinowitz, and we are at the largest commercial aircraft podcast episode.
It's very exciting. We haven't done –
[0:00:24] IP: Yes, we are.
[0:00:24] JR: - some of these in a long time.
[0:00:27] IP: No. It's been a few episodes. But also important, we actually have A380 news in
this episode, so it all works out.
[0:00:35] JR: Is it good news?
[0:00:37] IP: Yeah, I think so. It's not news about the A380 that's good, but it's good news that
involves an A380.
[0:00:44] JR: Oh, well, perfect for episode 380.
[0:00:47] IP: Exactly. Jason, you are in Virginia this week. I hope you are enjoying your time
there. I'll take that as a yes.
[0:00:59] JR: Yes. I mean, I'm here, week-long of team meetings. Struggled mightily to find –
I'm here 45 minutes to do this podcast, but I made it work.
[0:01:09] IP: And I and our listener thank you.
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[0:01:13] JR: You seem busier than me right now, though. It's actually you with the time
limitation today. Not me.
[0:01:17] IP: There's a lot going on today, because we have not only are you traveling, I'm
getting ready to travel. We'll talk about that in just a moment. But it's also the Farnborough
Airshow this week. There has been a lot of activity. Not huge amounts of activity, but here and
there. We're seeing a lot of top-ups, a lot of, “Yeah, we'll take some.” Then there are a few air –
not airlines, lessors that have said, “You know what? I'll take one of each and just keep them
coming.”
[0:01:48] JR: Times 100. One each, but a 100 of each.
[0:01:52] IP: Exactly. Exactly. Let's start from the beginning of the show.
[0:01:55] JR: It’s more than it. It's more than a trickle. It's a solid, solid flow, but like a bursty
flow.
[0:02:02] IP: Okay. I’ll go with it.
[0:02:03] JR: I mean, it's not like one order on day one, or three orders on day two. It's been
pretty consistent, but it seems the press release [inaudible 0:02:11].
[0:02:10] IP: It has been consistent, but they have not been huge orders. Yes. Yes, yes. I will
agree with that statement. We started the week off, as Jason mentioned, a 100 of each. SMBC
Aviation ordered 100 of each from Airbus and Boeing. This is on the Airbus side 65 321s and 35
320s. I'm taking Jason's lead. We're not calling them neos anymore. They don't make the COs.
They're done. We're done. Moving on. They ordered 100 of each. From the Boeing side, we're
looking at 40 MAX 8s and 60 MAX 10s. Really, what these are, are orders for places in line.
[0:02:55] JR: They are protecting their future as a leasing company.
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[0:02:58] IP: Yes. We need Airbus narrowbody jets. We need Boeing narrowbody jets in our
portfolio. It's time for us to top-up. We'll put down a small deposit and then have a nice place in
line.
[0:03:12] JR: Then put those slots on the market in 10 years when someone else wants a plane
real quick.
[0:03:17] IP: Exactly, and make more money. Riyadh Air firmed up, let's start with the easy one.
They added to their A350-1000 order and added six more. They also firmed up an order for
787s, firming up options for 28. Most of those options have now been converted to the larger
787-10. Some of that will come from a previously undisclosed purchase. If you're lost already,
then we'll have a flow chart available at some point. But they're cobbling together a fleet and just
continuing to add aircraft.
[0:04:09] JR: Oh, that's one way to do it.
[0:04:10] IP: Yeah. We also have PAL’s Dreamliner commitment, increasing 15 more firm
orders, plus five options, and flopping over to the Airbus side as well, going up to nine more
A350-1000s. It seems like there's a lot of top-up of fleet commitments from airlines on both
sides of the widebody aisle this time around.
[0:04:41] JR: Yeah, good stuff. Day one was a tasting of what was to come.
[0:04:45] IP: Moving on to day two, AerCap, another very large lessor is taking 15 787-9s.
Uganda Airlines announced four 737-8 MAXs and four 787-9s. That's super interesting. One
might consider them giving up on the A330-800, perhaps?
[0:05:09] JR: Yeah, those didn't work out all that well for them.
[0:05:12] IP: What are we? Three airlines now?
[0:05:14] JR: Yeah. I mean, specifically for Uganda Airlines, I think they had major engine
issues with them and they were grounded for quite a while, so forget that the A380, or the
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A330-800 not being particularly successful for Airbus. It wasn't even successful for one of the
three airlines that ordered and had nothing delivered.
[0:05:30] IP: Yeah. And Kuwait being the third airline there. So, not great.
[0:05:37] JR: Nothing's going their way right now.
[0:05:39] IP: Nothing is going their way. But actually, looking at the numbers, Kuwait – this is off
topic, but Kuwait’s doing fairly well before this week. I will look at the numbers from this week
after this weekend and possibly revise my statement on the next episode. It was a good second
day of the show for Embraer. Abra Group, based in South America, owner of GOL, Avianca, and
Wamos, finally placed an order for Embraer E-Jets, signing up for 20 E195-E2s, and also taking
options for 10. That is their first E-Jet order. So, good for them. And frankly, it's about time.
[0:06:31] JR: Yeah. There were some other orders, I think. Did you mention the Shohin
Airlines?
[0:06:38] IP: I have not gotten there yet. No.
[0:06:40] JR: Oh, well, excuse me. I beat you to the point. Continue.
[0:06:44] IP: You did. They, Shohin Airlines, which is based in Tajikistan, ordered four
A320neos. Sorry, 320neo family. I don't think the –
[0:06:56] JR: 320 family. We don't say – the neo is silent, remember?
[0:07:00] IP: I'm working on it. I believe it is split two and two. This was a previously undisclosed
order on the Airbus backlog. This was part of our big June undisclosed airlines order. More top-
ups, Luxair, two 737-10s. Let's see. Who else? Some good cargo conversion orders here, as
well as new cargo orders. MSC Air Cargo, which currently operates 777 freighters, has ordered
five 777-8 freighters. They recently, I mean, relatively recently, they only launched their air cargo
operation in 2022. Really standing out –
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[0:07:50] JR: And they want more?
[0:07:51] IP: - yeah, on the heels of the COVID air cargo explosion, seeing a market there, and
then saying, “Yeah, we need more and we need bigger.”
[0:08:01] JR: Yup. Did we mention AerCap as well?
[0:08:05] IP: Yes. I think I definitely mentioned AerCap and their order for the 787-9s. They also
have the ability to swap those to the larger Dash 10, if they so choose. Then today, we have
orders from Flynas, Bermuda Air.
[0:08:29] JR: BermudAir.
[0:08:31] IP: BermudAir, sorry. Actually, I think those are the two big ones from today. Five, I
mean, relatively big. Five A330neos and 20 A321s. They already have both of those types on
order. Then BermudAir is signing up for 10 A220-300s that was previously disclosed.
[0:08:58] JR: That might be the – Oh, was it previously disclosed? Undisclosed, yeah.
[0:09:01] IP: Previously undisclosed. Sorry.
[0:09:03] JR: Yeah, this might be the most surprising one to me, the one that I expected least
everything. They are a relatively new airline, only serving a relatively small market, Bermuda to,
I think, some Northeast cities and also Toronto, maybe some other Canadian cities. They also
expanded out to other Caribbean islands. I forget the other one in particular. It's almost like a
subsidiary, BermudAir, but it's a relatively small fleet. To grow up to 10 of the larger A220s, it's
surprising to me. I hope they've got this all figured out, because those are going to be some
expensive airplanes. They're not playing with house money and cheap used E190s anymore, or
E175s, actually.
[0:09:46] IP: Yeah. I think it'll be interesting to see how they manage that. I mean, it's a great
airplane. It's great for passengers. It seems to fit the bill. But yes, introducing complete
complexity, and that's a lot of money. Like Jason said, hopefully, they've got the business case
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behind them to make that go. So far this year, we're at 342 aircraft, which is above the 2024
show, but not quite up to the 2022 show, and nowhere near the pre-COVID airshow orders,
2018 over 1,100 aircraft were ordered at Farnborough.
[0:10:30] JR: Was that when, it was 2018 when the Middle East Airlines just went nuts and
ordered 400 of everything?
[0:10:36] IP: Yes, please. We will take whatever you have and give them –
[0:10:39] JR: Yes. I don’t think we’re ever, ever going to see that ever again.
[0:10:44] IP: No. Probably not. But then, I guess, this also leads us into the larger question of,
are these airshows becoming less of an event to order, make these large orders? We've seen a
lot of large orders in the past few years take place outside of these airshows, where historically,
that wasn't necessarily the case.
[0:11:09] JR: Yeah. Or how many of these orders even already happened and were just
undisclosed for days, weeks, or months, and then they just reviewed them at the airshow, which
is just a nice place where some press is already there and can ask questions if wanted.
[0:11:25] IP: Well, you know who was answering questions at the Farnborough Airshow this
week?
[0:11:28] JR: Airbus?
[0:11:29] IP: Yes. But not where I was going with this.
[0:11:32] JR: Oh, I skipped to the bullet point. Sir Tim Clark, the man loves to answer questions
and also just give you answers to questions you haven't asked.
[0:11:41] IP: And make commentary on baked beans. The 787s, I'll get there. The 787s –
[0:11:47] JR: I have no idea what you're getting at there.
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[0:11:49] IP: Jason's been so busy this week that there are so many good things that are
slipping in the podcast.
[0:11:53] JR: I have seen nothing.
[0:11:55] IP: And he has no idea if I'm serious or not. The 787s had the terrible tins. There was
a collection of early build 787s that required a massive amount of rework and were heavy. They
weren't what airlines wanted, and most of them went away very quickly. Well, it seems that the
777-9 will have the terrible 10, or so, possibly 11.
[0:12:25] JR: Still waiting to see how you incorporate baked beans into 777Xs are not great at
the moment, but continue.
[0:12:34] IP: Not even what I'm incorporating. It's a direct quote. Sir Tim Clark says this week
that Emirates is not going to take the first 10, or so 777-9s that have been built for that airline.
By no means are they walking away from their commitment. They still have, I think, 270 on
order. They're going to take a lot of these massive airplanes, just not the ones that were built
starting in about 2019 that have been sitting around for years. Tim Clark says that it would be
better to just turn those in to tins of baked beans.
[0:13:08] JR: Oh, so we're not turning the 777X into baked beans themselves, but things that
can hold. I mean, typically the reference here is beer cans, I guess.
[0:13:19] IP: Emirates didn’t want to – Or maybe Sir Tim Clark just really likes baked beans.
[0:13:23] JR: Baked beans are great. Hobos can attest to that and all the way up to Sir Tim
Clark, everyone loves. It's the first time I've heard that reference of turning aluminum into baked
bean cans. We're going to have to keep that reference in our back pocket for when we need it.
[0:13:40] IP: I think we will. Emirates says, “No, we're not going to take those. Boeing's going to
have to figure out what to do with those.” Those aircraft have been reworked and reworked
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again and reworked again. Our good friend, Jon Ostrower, over at The Air Current reporting
earlier late last week that one 777X has already been scrapped.
[0:14:04] JR: Oh.
[0:14:05] IP: It required so much work that Boeing just said, “You know what? We're just going
to take it apart.”
[0:14:11] JR: Now it almost puts into perspective that a 10-year-old A220 being disassembled
for its parts like, hey, at least that had a decade of service-ish, give or take. This aircraft never
made it off the flight line, which is, yeah, that's not great. But none of the terrible – I guess, a
couple terrible tins also suffered the same fate, right?
[0:14:34] IP: A couple terrible tins were also dismantled. A couple of them went to VVIP
Configurations, where the price of fuel and the weight penalty doesn't really matter.
[0:14:47] JR: Mexican Air Force One. That's right.
[0:14:49] IP: Which is now the Tajikistan Air Force One, or presidential aircraft. But we'll see
what happens. Emirates says, it still expects its first 777-9 to enter service in the second quarter
of 2027.
[0:15:04] JR: Yeah.
[0:15:05] IP: We'll see that aircraft soon. On the non-airline yet side of things, the A380 is back
in the news, because Airbus unveiled its A380 flight lab that will support the CFM RISE open fan
engine test campaign. That particular aircraft has paint job has been unveiled. Airbus put out
some information about that. For its part, GE Aerospace and CFM say they are planning to put
this engine into flight testing by the end of this year.
[0:15:44] JR: CFM RISE is the unducted fan, correct?
[0:15:48] IP: Right.
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[0:15:50] JR: I feel like we have heard of plans for the A380 to host a great number of things to
go flying with, whether it's hydrogen-powered engines, or some sort of other engine, or the CFM
RISE platform itself, and they never actually happen. We get a rendering and then it never
happens. This is a pretty short window between now and the end of the year for this thing to
actually be flight testing. Can this be the one that we actually see happen? That'd be –
[0:16:18] IP: Well, the aircraft is actually undergoing modifications. The A380 is actually
undergoing modifications. It flew last week to an MRO, where it will begin to start to look like the
RISE platform, where they can attach the CFM RISE open-fan engine. They are also going to
give it a nice special livery, which we can put a link in the show notes. Then all of the other
testing that goes on before that is finishing up. This is something that seems like it is
progressing pretty quickly towards first flight. Hoping that they can keep that schedule on for the
rest of the year, because I would absolutely love to see that aircraft carrying around the
unducted fan. That'll be great to see. Then lastly, from Farnborough, we have the Wings of
Tomorrow, Jason.
[0:17:26] JR: Sounds like a great movie.
[0:17:28] IP: It does sound like a great movie. This particular thing might not be a full-length
feature film, but is the beginning steps to get to the next narrowbody from Airbus. Airbus is going
to take an A320neo and fly it next year with simulated fully extended folding wingtips.
[0:17:56] JR: Boeing called, it wants its thing back.
[0:17:58] IP: Well, it's a good idea, I guess. They're going to have to steal it. This will fly not with
folding wings, but with simulated folding wingtips. They're going to ground test all of the
mechanisms and everything at the same time, but not on the actual aircraft.
[0:18:23] JR: But why? This is for testing for a new wide-body aircraft where it has a wide –
[0:18:27] IP: No, this is for the narrow-body aircraft. This is for the new narrow-body aircraft.
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[0:18:33] JR: A new narrow-body aircraft that would have a wider wingspan, where they then
need to claw back that added space, so they go to folding wingtips?
[0:18:43] IP: Correct.
[0:18:45] JR: It would be a blended wingtip on a narrow body.
[0:18:48] IP: Yes, exactly.
[0:18:50] JR: I see. I see.
[0:18:50] IP: A very long, thin, narrow wing. They're going to test different geometries. They're
going to test a variety of thicknesses, lengths, things like that. Look for that flying test program
to begin in the second half of next year. There's going to be some interesting stuff flying around
out of Toulouse.
[0:19:13] JR: Yeah. Imagine taking E190-E2, make it a bit a whole lot wider and then make the
wingtips fold up and I guess, that's the concept.
[0:19:23] IP: Yup. That's how you reduce fuel.
[0:19:26] JR: All right. Control-C, control-V, control-P. Let's go.
[0:19:32] IP: Let's go to Oshkosh now, because not only is it the Farnborough Airshow in the
UK this week, it is also Oshkosh, which brings the world's largest collection of aviation to a small
town in Wisconsin, but once a year. For a week a year, and if you've listened to this podcast for
more than a year, you'll know this, or for a week a year, the control tower at Oshkosh becomes
the busiest control tower in the world and Oshkosh becomes the busiest airport in the world,
because there are tens of thousands of aircraft flying in. There are daily air shows, there are
mass arrivals for different kinds of aircrafts, there are everything from ultra-lights and
helicopters, to sea planes, to large commercial aircraft that just wander in, stick around for the
day and then wander back out.
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Yesterday, Delta brought their LA28 livery A350 into town, all sorts of good fun stuff. We will be,
well, I will be up there this weekend. Looking forward to hanging out with the folks at the flying
bowls and their DC-6 and P-38 for a little bit. Really looking forward to seeing that DC-6. Then,
we'll be spending a bit more time late in the weekend and early into next week with the fine folks
at Goodyear again. Look for all of that soon. If you're up at Oshkosh, or if you're headed up to
Oshkosh, by all means, give us a shout and we'll see if we can meet up. I'm looking forward.
We're going to try and meet up with our good friend, Ken Hoke, of AeroSavvy.
[0:21:06] JR: Hey, that's great. Been too long since we've talked to Ken. I know he's retired, but
we need to get him back on more often.
[0:21:13] IP: Well, I'm going to see him this weekend. So, I'll see what I can do about that. If
you're around, by all means, give us a shout. You can email us, podcast@fr24.com, or you can
just give us a shout on social media and I'll be checking all of that and hope to see many of you
up there. Jason, it's not just airshow news this week, there's other stuff going on, unfortunately.
[0:21:36] JR: I don't believe you. That's never the case.
[0:21:38] IP: And some of it, not so good. Some of it, really not –
[0:21:41] JR: Some of it can be good.
[0:21:42] IP: Some of it can be good. Some of it will be good. But the things that we're about to
talk about right now, not so good. Their Spanish investigators are probing a TCAS resolution
advisory that fired over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Western Sahara, between an Iberia
and Air Europa flight. Those aircraft were flying at the same altitude, 36,000 feet on the same
airway, N857. The TCAS resolution advisory fired and Iberia was warned to descend. The Air
Europa flight was told to climb. They did what they were supposed to do. Everything was fine,
but now investigators are wondering how they, in fact, got sequenced onto the same airway in
the opposite direction at the same altitude.
[0:22:39] JR: Hey, that's a great question. A very great question. Shades of what was it? Brazil
with the private jet and GOL way back when, when unfortunately, one of the aircraft had – the
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private jet had TCAS disabled accidentally. This should not be able to happen. But once again,
TCAS saves the freaking day once again.
[0:23:03] IP: We like when TCAS does its job. We don't like when TCAS has to do its job.
[0:23:07] JR: But it's there, always most of the time, silently doing its job, until it's very loud
doing its job.
[0:23:14] IP: Yes, that's true.
[0:23:18] JR: But kudos to the pilots for acknowledging the TCAS resolution, following its
guidance and preventing anything terrible from happening. Yeah, I'm looking forward to this
investigation, because something like this should never, can never happen.
[0:23:33] IP: Absolutely, absolutely. Let's talk about an interesting one. A Kalitta Air 777-300ER
converted freighter –
[0:23:44] JR: Ooh, not many of those out there.
[0:23:46] IP: - was landing in Cincinnati from Brussels and suffered what is technically a tail
strike. Though having seen the video, I would argue it was more of a VMU test, an unplanned
VMU test.
[0:24:05] JR: If you've seen a VMU test, which is something that happens with, I think, all
commercial aircraft during their certification process –
[0:24:12] IP: Yes.
[0:24:13] JR: - it is a very –
[0:24:14] IP: Certified commercial aircraft.
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[0:24:16] JR: Yes. It is a very dramatic-looking test. That is where basically, they rotate the
aircraft, but they don't lift off and they smash the tail into the ground gently. But it is a very
visually stunning test, because sparks fly everywhere. This was basically that for a 777-300ER
converted freighter, but by accident.
[0:24:37] IP: But by accident. Yeah. They, for whatever reason, we don't know why yet there
was a tail strike on the go-around. We don't actually know the reason for the initial go-around,
but they went around after the tail strike. The aircraft was fine to fly. They were sequenced back
around and then the tower canceled their approach and canceled their landing clearance,
because looking at the track, it looks like they initially, they were initially sequenced to land on
36 center, where that was the runway they were on for the tail strike. Then, obviously, they're
performing an inspection of that runway, and so that runway is closed. They were then cleared
for an approach to 36 left. They looked like they were lining up for 36 center and then moved,
wigwagged over to 36 left, and the tower just waved them on. They canceled their approach
clearance and then they came back around and did it again. They landed on the third approach.
The FAA is investigating. The NTSB has not said anything quite yet, though I guess, it will
depend on how much damage the aircraft did in fact receive. Then, here, there was no damage.
Just a load of massive inconvenience for hundreds of –
[0:26:03] JR: I would say, there were some damage to people's plans and patience.
[0:26:08] IP: No physical damage, shall we say?
[0:26:09] JR: No. This was really bad. Flying all through the Northeast, the East Coast in
general, this past Saturday, Sunday, skipping Monday when I flew. Thankfully, everything was
amazing. Then into Tuesday, it has been an onslaught of just bad, everything bad. In fact,
yesterday, zero of the four flights between Dallas and LaGuardia actually made it between the
two cities. It's always been quite bad. But this, I think this one takes the cake at least for now. It
really reminds me of the old days of the old bad days of American 767-300 days, which is just
nothing worked and everything was bad. But in this case, I believe there was a canceled flight,
AA108 between Boston and Heathrow. The next day, the flight departed Boston, had a
mechanical issue, I think something about the landing gear. Then it diverted back, not to Boston,
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but to JFK. Because at JFK, that's an actual hub, and they sometimes have some spare aircraft,
and they were able to yoink another 777-200 from the ramp and get passengers back out and
going.
They were out a couple of hours into the flight, and they had to divert again. This time, they
went back to Boston. They had two flights, I think about 14 hours of travel to go from Boston to
Boston via JFK over Nova Scotia, I think. Sometimes it's all just stacked up against you. That's
terrible. I really hope we're not getting back to the days of the American 767s, where this was a
pretty much a weekly occurrence.
[0:27:43] IP: Yeah. Did you really fly in the early 2000s, without at least two flight delay,
because of an American 767?
[0:27:53] JR: Oh, no. It was impossible. Even if you weren't flying American, you were
somehow impacted by a broken American 767 –
[0:27:58] IP: Somehow their fault.
[0:28:00] JR: - either going tech at JFK, or exploding at O'Hare. They were just everywhere
causing chaos. That was one COVID casualty that was actually, probably –
[0:28:10] IP: That we're very okay with.
[0:28:12] JR: It's time.
[0:28:13] IP: Jason, I know we're both pressed for time, so let's –
[0:28:17] JR: Turbo round. Let’s go.
[0:28:18] IP: - run our way through the rest of the episode. Alaska has officially decided that it
will replace the Inter Island 717s that it currently operates in Hawaii with 737-800s, beginning in
2028. Not huge news on the order front, but more as a we're not ordering other planes, so
Boeing stays happy.
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[0:28:40] JR: Yeah, I do love the wording of the press release that says, Alaska Airlines selects
737-800s to strengthen blah, blah, blah. Selects. They're not ordering any aircraft. They already
have these.
[0:28:50] IP: We're dumping our old planes in Hawaii.
[0:28:52] JR: They're putting them out the pasture in Honolulu. They'll be fine. Funny wording
there. Read like an aircraft order.
[0:28:59] IP: Exactly. JetBlue won the bidding for Spirit's 22 takeoff and landing slots at
LaGuardia. The court hearing is today to finalize that. I haven't seen whether or not that order
has officially gone through yet, but they paid 58.5 million for those slots.
[0:29:19] JR: All right. That's an interesting twist. I didn't know JetBlue had the cash lying
around to do that, nor did they want to grow at LaGuardia. But maybe they'll take these, lease
them out, because there's certainly no space left in LaGuardia terminal B for them to operate
additional flights, don’t they?
[0:29:33] IP: Well, now they say they're looking at the Marine Air terminal, though.
[0:29:36] JR: Again. What's old is new again. But at the same time, the port authority was
supposed to close that terminal to renovate it, because it's a dump. Who knows what's
happening here? This is going to be an onion, and we've only scratched the most outer layer
here. LaGuardia just keeps delivering.
[0:29:52] IP: Onions. Boeing can self-certify again. The FAA has returned self-certification
authority for airworthiness certificates for the 737 MAX and 787 to Boeing. It took that away as
part of the investigation into the MAX crash and the 787 quality issues. That's been removed
since 2019 for the 737 and 2022 for the 787. The FAA for its part says, the investigators that are
at Boeing facilities, they're not going away. They're just going to do other things and start earlier
in the process. Hopefully, if done right, this could be a very good thing, because it would allow
FAA investigators and quality folks to get into Boeing's business earlier in the process and find
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things earlier in the process, rather than dealing with ticketing each individual aircraft as they
make their way off the line.
[0:31:02] JR: Yes, the FAA now says that Boeing is once again able to tell the difference
between a brand-new airplane and a can of baked beans, which is a good thing.
[0:31:10] IP: That's super helpful. That's super helpful. This is a fun one for research, for
aviation safety, for everything that I think is cool about being an avgeek. Researchers have
finally found Clipper Endeavour, which is the Pan Am DC-4 that crashed nearly 75 years ago off
the coast of Puerto Rico. In April 1952, the aircraft departed San Juan for New York and crashed
shortly after takeoff, because of power loss in two of its engines. The captain was able to ditch
the aircraft and investigators determined that most everyone onboard likely survived the initial
impact. But the aircraft sank so fast that 52 people died in the accident and only 17 survived.
This accident is extremely important, because it led eventually to what we now know as the
mandatory safety briefing before every flight. Investigators using an autonomous underwater
vehicle found the wreckage of the aircraft.
[0:32:40] JR: I didn't even know anyone was looking for it.
[0:32:42] IP: There's video of the researchers seeing the photos from the underwater drone for
the first time. It's absolutely incredible. I mean, you can see the paint on the fuselage is still
there. Very, very cool. We'll put a link in the show notes to the video of that, because it was just
fascinating to watch. We talked, Jason, what, maybe a few months ago about an Icelandair
flight that was notable not for how high it flew, but perhaps, how low it flew. This was a
retirement flight – It was a regular passenger flight, but it was a captain was retiring. They
descended very, very low.
[0:33:34] JR: To the point where we lost track of it, because it went below mountains. Not great.
[0:33:42] IP: the Icelandic transport authority has determined that captain and first officer
conducted this flight, not “in compliance with applicable aviation regulations.”
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AVT 380 Transcript
[0:33:52] JR: Yeah. You don't say. There have been consequences, haven't there?
[0:33:56] IP: There sure have. One of the pilots, the captain who is now retired, has had his
license suspended for 24 months. The first officer has had their license suspended for 12
months. Icelandair has not yet said, what if anything it will do to the pilots? It would really suck if
the airline that you just retired from is like, “Well, because that, no pension for you.”
[0:34:24] JR: I mean, do stupid things, and there are consequences. I think we probably talked
about that exact scenario way back when we initially saw this. I do like that they suspended the
license of the pilot that’s already retired, so I don't think that really matters. Also, that there was
recognition that there was also another pilot in that flight deck and they also got a less severe
penalty. But 12 months of having a license suspended, that's a big deal. But probably something
they will learn mightily from.
[0:34:56] IP: Yeah. That's rough.
[0:34:58] JR: There are consequences, even if it is your last day on the job.
[0:35:02] IP: Yes. Jason, you have an update on our favorite surcharge.
[0:35:09] JR: Yes, we're calling it the Raccoon Economic Index, I believe now at this point.
Yeah, Porter has moved its fee that they introduced earlier this year, because of increased oil
prices and fuel prices. They introduced a $40 charge, then they backed it off to 20 and said,
“We're going to reassess it,” and they sure did. It went back up to 40. They said, “This isn't what
we wanted to do, but we have to do it, because the price of fuel went up.” I like that Mr. Porter is
so transparent about this. Nobody likes if they've had to do it. But the Raccoon Economic Index,
I think, is a good way to keep track of fuel prices and its impact on airlines. I think we're going to
keep that around.
[0:35:50] IP: I like it. I like it. I like what it's called. I don't like that it has to exist.
[0:35:56] JR: You know, I think there's one more thing we need to talk about.
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AVT 380 Transcript
[0:35:59] IP: Sure.
[0:35:59] JR: A particular accident report that you put together. I don't know if we talked about it
last week, did we?
[0:36:05] IP: We can talk about it now. The wounds have started to heal.
[0:36:08] JR: Okay. Well, we'll link to it in the show notes, but you put together a blog, because
your precious Lego 747 shuttle carrier with space shuttle attached to it took a bit of a tumble.
You conducted an investigation, put an entire investigative report together, issued a preliminary
report. The findings of that report were – what were they? Feliness something, something.
[0:36:34] IP: Felis catus. Yes, the cat knocked over the Lego.
[0:36:38] JR: Yes. The cat knocked over the Lego 747. On the social media someone
commented, “Well, this is a pretty open and shut case.” Then somebody relatively important
chimed in, didn't they?
[0:36:49] IP: Indeed, they did. This was absolutely fascinating.
[0:36:52] JR: You didn't know where I was going with this, but someone very important.
[0:36:56] IP: I hope that that's where you were going with it, but I wasn't sure. Yes. The chair of
the National Transportation Safety Board chimed in.
[0:37:05] JR: I can't believe you're working to talk about this. This is probably one of the most
interesting things that has ever happened to this story.
[0:37:11] IP: Sorry, I was still in shock. Long story short, there was an entire team of
investigators that was brought out to investigate this accident. This one person mentioned that it
seems like a pretty clear-cut case. Chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, Jennifer
Homendy says, “Not so fast. I have questions.” “What policies and procedures were in place to
safeguard Felis catus, Lego passengers and responders and property? Were those procedures
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AVT 380 Transcript
followed? Was the safety management system in place and effectively carried out? What
training was provided to the feline and their supervisor?” She says, that she's looking forward to
reviewing the findings, probable cause and recommendations.
[0:37:55] JR: Well, you should get on that. You should get your interns on this. I am looking
forward to a complete report within one year of the accident.
[0:38:02] IP: Absolutely.
[0:38:04] JR: And we may have to hold Snacks accountable for his actions.
[0:38:08] IP: One of the events that I'll be attending at Oshkosh this weekend on Sunday at
9.30 in the morning at the International Federal Pavilion is an NTSB workshop entitled Urgent:
Writing Safety Recommendations That Can't Wait. I'm actually going to learn the best way to
write safety recommendations before the final report comes out how to keep the cat off my –
[0:38:33] JR: That's good. That's good. I look forward to the addendum actually as well,
because I heard rumors on the Internet that there was a secondary accident to this one.
[0:38:41] IP: There may have been a secondary accident. Yes.
[0:38:43] JR: The recovery has not been a smooth process.
[0:38:46] IP: Well, yeah. It has been fully recovered and reassembly was possible on all fronts.
However, the space shuttle may have suffered a secondary disassembly in the process.
[0:38:57] JR: Oh, man. NASA is going to be so mad.
[0:38:58] IP: It was not the fault of the cat. There you go. All right, this has been episode 380 of
AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as always with –
[0:39:10] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
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AVT 380 Transcript
[END]
© 2026 AvTalk 20