851: Mailbag 12/15/23

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zaferretha, Jay Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode eight hundred and fifty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

00:00:22
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. We've got a mailbag episode today.

00:00:25
Speaker 1: But before getting into the questions, I want to remind you to check out Late Round Fantasy Football on both Instagram and YouTube. The Instagram account has videos and data nuggets posted every single day and it's at Late Round FF. The YouTube channel can be found at YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. This was year one of just feeling things out with those platforms, but there's gonna be more in year two, so you'll want to be following before things get bigger and better. Now let's get to these questions. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Derek. It says how much should we value immediate opportunity and dynasty drafts. Fantasy Calc recently tweeted value movements, and many of the players who increase in value had immediate opportunity, like JSN and Quinton Johnston versus Jay Flowers in Jordan aison. Clearly there's hindsight bias, but with how reactionary the dynasty community can be.

00:01:17
Speaker 2: Should we value early opportunity more so? Yes and no.

00:01:23
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a really long answer. This is going to take up a lot of today's show, but I think it's a really important thing. I think when there are obvious situations where a player isn't going to play in year one, or at least not play for a long time during year one, you should.

00:01:38
Speaker 2: Devalue that player.

00:01:39
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams last year is a great example of that. He was being selected in rookie drafts ahead of some really really good wide receivers even though we all knew that he wouldn't play for a while coming off that acl. It's why I personally had him at the bottom of that round one wide receiver tier in my rankings, because we want players to immediately approve, sheiate and value, and Williams was more than likely just going to maintain at best at least to start the year. Now. The reason I say obvious situations is because the idea of immediate opportunity it's not very clear cut.

00:02:14
Speaker 2: Like look at your question.

00:02:16
Speaker 1: You mentioned Quentin Johnston as someone who didn't see immediate opportunity bucketing him with Jackson Smith and Jigba. Johnson has played most of the year without a wide receiver two for the Chargers. He's just been bad, so his value hasn't risen. And for the record, I'm recording this before Thursday Night's game. Meanwhile, Jsen has been buried behind Tyler Lockin and DK Metcalf, and we all kind of knew that there was this possibility that Jaysn wouldn't be some stud in year one.

00:02:44
Speaker 2: It's wide.

00:02:44
Speaker 1: Despite being most people's favorite wide receiver from the twenty twenty three class, he was still drafted as more of a wide receiver for in redraft. His projection didn't look stellar, but he did have upside if number one he just ended up being a really really good player, like an amazing player, or number two he had an injury upside if one of two players got hurt. And I talked about this all season long. If either Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf got hurt, so there were two outs here for JSN, he would see an uptick in production. But knock on Wood, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett have stayed relatively healthy this year. What I'm really getting at here is that talent is what drives opportunity. When a player has undeniable talent, he'll at least create some sort of opportunity for himself. And it doesn't have to be some league winning opportunity either. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that they show us something they're able to not be labeled as bus right away. Talent drives opportunity, especially at a position like wide receiver. The examples that you're showing, I don't think it's hindsight bias per se. I think it's sort of selection bias. You mentioned Flowers in Addison as guys who appreciated in value because of that opportunity. But what about someone like Jonathan Mingo. Mingo has shown us very very little, and he's competing with a thirty three year old slot receiver. A player still needs to be talented to shine an example like Jackson Smith and Jigba. It's honestly pretty unique. Those circumstances don't pop up very often, so focusing on that, I don't think that's the right thing to do. But I also think a lot of this is more specific for earlier round picks, because earlier round picks are generally generally being drafted on need. A team is getting a wide receiver in the first round, generally speaking, because they need a wide receiver.

00:04:41
Speaker 2: This is why the JSN example is unique.

00:04:43
Speaker 1: The Seahawks needed a wide out longer term. Yes, they could have used help in twenty twenty three, yes, but not many expected a first round wide out. But when teams are drafting first round, maybe second round wideouts for need, those players are just naturally going to have some opera unity because there's a need, and then they'll hopefully be talented enough to really shine. Where I think this discussion is more interesting is with late round picks, because a lot of times Day three draft picks, they're being drafted as darts for depth, not to be used immediately. But when a player is drafted to an objectively thin depth chart, that's where things get interesting. Now, this is going to be a little bit hard to explain, but I'll do my best. Going back to the main point here, talent drives opportunity. But this isn't some black and white thing. There are going to be times where an objectively talented player is worse in fantasy football than an objectively less talented player, because situation and circumstance is still part of the equation. Look at Drake London. I think many of us would agree that Drake London's a baller. He's a very good wide receiver, but he's currently a low end wide receiver three and PPR points per game? Right now, do we really think that Adam Thielen, who's currently a high wide receiver two, is so substantially better than Drake London as a player. Now, there's no shade to Adam thlen here. I think he's still actually pretty good. He's just in an offense it's been incredibly conservative all year long, and they've peppered the slot and plan himself is seeing more advantageous matchups based on scheme than London is. So talent isn't everything, It's just a big part of the equation. Felan still has to be good to be doing what he's doing, and Drake London still has to be good to overcome all the crap that he's dealt with in Atlanta. But the point that I'm making here is that some gap in talent can still yield the opposite gap in production. Now, imagine a world where you have two Day three picks. One of them you think is more talented than the other. Maybe not by a lot, but he's more talented. But the less talented one has a much easier depth chart to climb in year one, there are reasons to go after the less talented player in your rookie draft, or to at least split the difference if you're in multiple leagues. If the depth chart is easier to climb, then that Day three pick may be able to have a chance to show off his talent profile. And as we know, we're not always right with our evaluations, so we should be open minded to being wrong about who's good and who isn't. And that's especially true with a Day three pick. The vast majority of Day three players are going to be bad in fantasy football. Let me just give you an example. My model didn't love Pooka Nakua. Now, for those of you who don't know, I don't only use my prospect model when I'm evaluating prospects.

00:07:36
Speaker 2: It's just a guide for me.

00:07:38
Speaker 1: In my write up for Niakua and the Late Round Prospect Guide, I noted his really good yards per route run numbers in college, and that's not something that my model's analyzing. But I gave Nikua a subjective bump because of that. Now on top of that, I wrote the following. This is from the guide. Nikua ended up falling to the Rams in Round five, and LA could use the wide receiver help. Cooper is the only locked in piece in that offense, and Van Jefferson is set to be a free agent next season. In other words, Nikua had immediate opportunity more than most Day three picks would. Now if you look at my rookie draft rankings, I had Nikua as the wide receiver sixteen in his class. He ranked as the wide receiver twenty three when looking solely at the model, solely at what you might consider talent, and he was the twentieth wide receiver drafted in this year's class. So I ended up ranking him decently far ahead of where he was actually drafted. I bumped Nikua up a good bit. Part of that was because I felt the model didn't capture his production and what he did in college properly, but part of it was the immediate opportunity piece.

00:08:44
Speaker 2: Basically, we know that Day.

00:08:45
Speaker 1: Three picks aren't going to be very talented. Usually right a Day one pick, a Day two pick, they're more talented than Day three picks. So when that's the case, we need other things to latch onto in order for those players to have a shot at a push eating in value. Like Jamar Chase was gonna dominate no matter where he went Pukin Akua. In hindsight, he probably would have two. That was a huge miss by the NFL. But the majority of Day three picks who aren't Jamar Chase level prospects to get some production in year one. It's gonna be easier for them to get that production if their depth chart sucks, if they can climb it. Now, as a result of the Nakua stuff, I had him as a third round pick and rookie drafts. Most other sources had him as a fourth rounder. Now, clearly it was a miss in the grand scheme because he's way better than a wide receiver fifteen wide receiver sixteen ranking. But in fantasy football, we just have to like a player a little bit more than the consensus. And now I've got Nakua on a lot of my dynasty teams, and I know that a lot of other late round Prospect Guide readers do too, because I've talked to them, and look, I know this is gonna come off as some massive humble brag. There were others who liked Nikua way more than I did, and I had plenty of misses in this class. I was too low on Tank Dell, too low in Rashi Rice. I've got L's trust me. I'm just trying to give you a firm, clear and easy example of my process and how my process will indeed use immediate opportunity for a lot of these Day three picks, because we need every edge that we can get with these guys. So that's my incredibly long winded way of saying, this talent will always drive opportunity. Pukin Akua isn't having this rookie season simply because he went to a team that lacked depth. He ended up being an extremely, extremely talented player, far more talented than I expected. But would Pukinakua be doing this exact same thing in Jackson Smith and Jigba's position. Probably not, not to this degree, And that's okay to admit. I just think that at the end of the day, talent is what's most important, first and foremost but with the more unknown prospects, the guys who have less of a chance to do well at the NFL level, layering in the immediate opportunity when it's obvious that's a totally reasonable thing to do, and it's reasonable to do that with early round picks two. It's just that when you do that with earlier round picks, the stakes are higher, and we always want to lead our analysis with talent evaluation first. This best question is from at M twenty Workman. It says, how can someone take full advantage of a first round by in the playoffs? It doesn't seem like a real advantage, but I want it to be one. So I'm answering this question this week because if you feel like a first round by in fantasy football isn't a huge advantage, you got to change that way of thinking.

00:11:37
Speaker 2: Just think of this mathematically.

00:11:39
Speaker 1: In a three round playoff, a team getting a buy needs to just win twice. If every team had a fifty to fifty shot to win, that gives a first round by team a twenty five percent chance to win the championship. A team without a first round by has to win three games in a row at a fifty percent chance to win each game. That's a twelve and a half percent chance to win an all, so right away you have a huge advantage to win just from that. Not only that, but you can plan ahead for week sixteen when others can. You cannot roster a kicker this week, Let's say, in order to stash a running back handcuff for a defense, you can look ahead and get a quarterback streamer in week sixteen.

00:12:17
Speaker 2: You can even block your opponents. I mean, think of it this way.

00:12:21
Speaker 1: If I told you that all of your responsibilities for work would be handled this week, but you still had to come into the office, what would you do. You can choose to just play Candy Crush on your phone all day. That's fine, just like you can choose to let your roster sit this week without any moves, or you could get a head start and start working on things that are happening next week. If you're trying to get a promotion, you'd probably do the latter. You'd probably work on things for next week. It's no different in fantasy football. You can plan ahead and you can gain an edge in doing so. This as quos is from at m underscore Canelo. It says what is the cause for Phillies' offensive fallout? Do you think they turn it around and finished strong. I think this is a really good example of recency bias and how it's so easy to allow recent performance to drive narratives.

00:13:13
Speaker 2: And this isn't just you here.

00:13:15
Speaker 1: We're all seeing people talk about Phillies' offense. The Eagles have two offensive touchdowns over their last two games, so one per game. The week prior to that, week twelve they had five, and from week one to week twelve they averaged three point two offensive touchdowns per game. What's something that's happened over the last two weeks that didn't necessarily happen during their first eleven games. Consistently they faced two of the best defenses in football. They faced the forty nine Ers and the Cowboys. I think if we were to come up with one reason and one reason only as to why the Eagles offense has struggled of late, it would be that and during the Fantasy playoffs they get the Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals, I would expect them to be much better over their next three games, and they've been over their last two. The last question this week is from Patreon is from Eric. It says, for those of us looking ahead to Week sixteen, thoughts on the top defenses, would you rather have Buffalo or Denver? Thanks no free agent budget, so need to make a pickup now. One of the things that's become very evident to me this year is how much time people spend thinking about defenses in the playoffs. And it's good to plan ahead. Don't get me wrong, you should be trying to stash defenses. But as an analyst, I just have to be honest when I say that I don't have some clear cut answer at defense. There's a lot of variance for me to sit here and say that you absolutely have to play this specific defense not gonna happen like Buffalo and Denver. Buffalo gets the Chargers, and again I'm recording this before Thursday Night Football, but Buffalo gets the Chargers next week the Broncos get the Patriots.

00:14:54
Speaker 2: On paper, I don't have this super strong.

00:14:56
Speaker 1: Feeling about either of those defenses, like which one I would play versus the other.

00:15:01
Speaker 2: Chances are they're going to be in the same tier for me.

00:15:04
Speaker 1: Now, as a tiebreaker, I would then look at Week seventeen and see what kind of matchup they had to see if I could just ride one defense through the end of the season. But funny enough, the Broncos and the Bills, they just flip their opponents. The Bills get the Pats, the Broncos get the Chargers. I guess i'd say Buffalo because they're likely going to be bigger favorites in those two games. But this is like a fifty five to forty five thing, maybe a fifty one to forty nine thing. I'd be lying if I said I had very strong feelings about this. What's important, and this is the greater point here. What's important is that you're focused on the right consideration set. Both of those defenses are very very good options from here on out, from week sixteen on, So week sixteen and week seventeen, and in week sixteen, you could look at maybe Green Bay against Carolina, the Chiefs against the Raiders that they're still out there, the Texans against the Browns in a deeper format, and the Jets against the Commanders. Overall, though, as long as you're looking at the right set of teams, which most people listening to this show, that's what you would do. Because you're very smart people. That's all I can ask for. There's too much variance in defense to definitively say you gotta absolutely play this defense over the other when they're in the same tier in that consideration set.

00:16:19
Speaker 2: It would be unfair for me to.

00:16:21
Speaker 1: Make you guys think otherwise. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and Jeff to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

00:16:36
Speaker 2: Thanks everyone.

00:16:37
Speaker 1: I've got a Late Round Perspective's episode dropping later today, so I hope you listen to that, But otherwise, good luck in the first round of the playoffs. I'll talk to you next week.