950: 15 Transactions for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zachera J J Zachers. What's up everyone, It's jj zachar Esen in this episode nine hundred and fifty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in a couple of things before getting into transactions this week. First, this is Thanksgiving week, and since it's Thanksgiving week, the Late Round podcast schedule it's a little bit different. There's not going to be a mailbag episode or a Late Round Perspectives episode this week. Today, on Tuesday, you're getting the fifteen Transaction show, and then tomorrow you'll get the ten Trends episode as you usually do. But then later on in the day, hopefully by lunchtime, you'll get the Sleeper Show for the week. So the Sleeper Show is going to be released a day early in order to get everything you need before kickoff on Thanksgiving. Now Second Underdog is a great place to play fantasy sports on Thanksgiving. Right now in the lobby, you can check out the Turkey. It's a five dollars entry with two hundred thousand dollars in prizes, all centered around one of the best slates of the year, the Thanksgiving Slate. You can check out that contest and more by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or downloading the Underdog app. If you've never played there, make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round. That'll get you a nice deposit offer, as well as my rest of season rankings, which I'm still updating every Tuesday. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. Let's get to these transactions. Add Jeremy McNichols. So, Brian Robinson got banged up in that game against Dallas. Meanwhile, at the end of that game, Austin Eckler was concussed. So what that means is here in Week thirteen, we might not see Brian Robinson or Austin Eckler. If that's the case, Jerry McNichols will probably be the one a in that backfield. I think there is some chance that we see some Chris Rodriguez too the game against Tennessee. And we're just looking for volume and fantasy football. So go ahead and add Jeremy McNichols. It's as simple as that. By Taysom Hill. Now, look, I should have said this earlier, but I know that trade deadlines have largely passed. But these buy and sell transactions, they can be confidence driven transactions. They can tell you how you should generally feel about a player moving forward. So in this case, I think that you should feel more than okay with Taysom Hill on your roster. The last time we saw Hill, he had that monster monster game against Cleveland. Maybe that means that you're buying high here, but I don't think that the market is really locked into this idea that Taysom Hill could be like a top five tight end rest of season. Because it's Taysom Hill, people don't really take them seriously. New Orleans has now played two games without Dennis Allen. In those games, Hill's had route participation rates of sixty percent and sixty three percent. Every other game this season, Taysom Hill his route share under fifty percent. We know the Saints are lacking pass catching depth. More than likely Taysom Hill is going to have a receiving role, some sort of receiving role in this offense. And for what it's worth, New Orleans tight ends have the second best Fantasy playoff schedule by adjustin points allowed. I know that Taysom Hill's not a traditional tight end, so you can take that with a grain of salt, but it's still something. It's very easy to argue that Taysom Hill has just as high as a ceiling as any other tight end in football. Like we literally just saw that. But with him running more routes, he's providing a higher floor than usual. He's seen at least an eighteen percent target share and two of his last three. You pile on the rushing work, the potential goal line work, You've got yourself a good fantasy asset, and I'd be willing to bet on ceiling because ceiling is largely what matters at tight end. It's largely what matters in fantasy football just in general. Add do tavianis I know you guys don't want to hear this, but I've gotta do it. Romeo Dobbs. He suffered a concussion on Sunday. The Packers are playing on Thanksgiving. He's unlikely to play in that game. Next man up, Dontavian Wicks, and I know he's burned you. In Week five, the team didn't have Christian Watson. Everyone used Dontavian Wicks and he caught just two of his seven targets, but he did have a twenty five percent target share. That's a strong share. So if you're in a pinch, I do think that Wix kind of works in a Thursday night game that has an okay environment sell to a tongue of ioloa. Now, speaking of that Thursday night game, we're gonna see Tua in it, and he's been a lot better of late, but I think his performances need a little bit of context. The Dolphins are coming off games against the Raiders and the Patriots. These are two beatable defenses. They've scored a total of eight touchdowns in those games. Seven of those eight have come through the air. Tua has a nine percent touchdown rate in those games. That's a number that's likely not sustainable from here on out. So there's gonna be some regression in the schedule moving forward. It's not as clean as what we've seen over the last couple of weeks. In fact, according to Justin Fantasy points Allowed, Miami only gets one opponent from here on out that ranks favorably for quarterbacks by Justin points Allowed. The matchups aren't that like brutal. It's not like he's playing Chicago every week or like Pittsburgh every week. Or something, but they're not amazing. They're not gonna face New England every single week. So the point in this transaction is to simply say, I don't think Tua Tongue Bailoa is all of a sudden something that you're gonna plug into your lineup each week. No matter what, I still think that Tua is more of a platoon quarterback. Add Nick Westbrook Akine, I've started to realize that the Late Round podcast Sleeper show every week, it's sort of like the minor league. I call players out on that show, but I haven't talked about them all the time on the fifteen transaction show, and then sometimes they get called up to the bigs. That's what we've got with Nick Westbrook Akine because over the last couple of weeks, I've talked about him as a sleeper and he's come through because he's made these big plays. He's now scored a touchdown in six of his last seven, and those are games that have largely come without DeAndre Hopkins. Without Hopkins in the mix, Westbrook a Kinne is averaging a target chair per game rate of seventeen percent, which is respectable, and his targets have been down the field. His average up to target is above fifteen yards during this time, So yeah, he's gonna be evolved a last set and recently he's been hitting. But some rosters need that kind of variance. The touchdown streak is surely going to come to an end. But Tennessee, as I've talked about for weeks now, they continue to have an amazing schedule for the passing attack. They won't face a single bottom half opponent for wide receivers by justin points allowed through the end of the year, not one. So there's a real chance that Westbrook a Kinne's production won't totally totally fade away. Add a Mere Abdullah. So I talked about adding Abdullah last week, but I'm giving him another call out on this show because his usage was way better than I think any of us thought. On Sunday against the Broncos, Abdullah scored seventeen and a half PPR points that matched the season high for any Raiders running back. His ninety percent snapshare was over twenty percentage points higher than any other Vegas back this year. He ran a route on eighty percent of the team's dropbacks. That's bonkers. There's still a chance that both Zamir White and Alexander Madison are out this week, especially because it's a shorter one. Vegas plays on Friday and they play Kansas City. It's a brutal matchup for Abdullah, but the usage could still make them usable. By Christian McCaffrey. I'm just not overly concerned about Christian McCaffrey's performance so far this year, the three games that he's played. Could it be better? Yes? Are there signs that it will be better? Yes, CMC. Like I said, he's played three games. In those games, his lowest running back rush s here. It came in Week twelve. It was seventy nine percent. That's not even a bad number, and it was the result of a really weird game script because brock perty was sidelined. He's averaging an eighteen percent target chair per game rate too. Now, if brock Purty continues to be sidelined, then yeah, we should have some concern because the forty nine ers offense won't look the same as we saw in Week twelve. But rest of season, the forty nine Ers have a top five running back schedule by justin points allowed. It does get a little bit more difficult deeper in the fantasy playoffs, but if you need to just get there, you've got some plus matchups McCaffrey upcoming. This is for teams who need a little bit more volatility. You can take a chance on McCaffrey and cross your fingers that perty's healthy. If he is, then there's no reason to believe that Christian McCaffrey is not an RB one in fantasy football, despite some non elite performances so far. Add Trey Benson. So this is just a simple reminder to handcuff your running backs, or handcuff all running backs. Get backup running backs in your fantasy rosters right now, because we're generally past the point in time where we're just stashing players to see who they are as players. We do that earlier in the season, and we also know the kind of production that we're generally going to get from veterans. If that veteran's never going to crack your lineup, then just get a backup running back who has way more upside. But Trey Benson himself, he's been getting more run in this Arizona offensive late. He's now at back to back games with at least a thirty three percent running back rush share. That's not a super high number, but those are his two highest marks of the season, and that's come alongside two of his top three snap shares on the year too. Now, James Connor stayed relatively healthy this year, but he's an older running back and he's usually not been able to stay healthy throughout an entire season throughout his career. And not only could Connor break down at some point, but Arizona gets some of the best opponents for running backs in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams, so Benson should be rostered everywhere. Add Kenneth Gainwell, So, like I just mentioned, you should be grabbing handcuffs right now. You should have been doing that the last couple of weeks. Now I'm calling out Kenneth Gainwell because he's almost a forgotten backup, but based on the Eagles backfield usage this season, he's clearly ahead of rookie Will Shipley. Gainwell has a twenty four percent snapshare on the year. Shipley is at four percent. So if something were to happen to Saquon Barkley, everyone knock on Wood right now, I'd expect Gainwell to be the clear one a in that backfield. That definitely means that he should be rostered in more than two percent of Yahoo leagues sell Jordan Addison. We've seen target shares of twenty six percent and twenty eight percent from Jordan Addison over his last two Those are two of his top three marks of the season. Even still based on where he's seeing his looks Addison, according to PFF's expected Fantasy points model, He's played almost seven PPR points per game above expectation over the last two weeks. That's obviously a problem. That means regression. It tells us that Addison's fifteen to thirty point outings aren't sustainable, and they're not, so we should be fearful for that regression. But also we need to worry about Justin Jefferson just getting more looks in this offense. In Week twelve, if you're not aware, Justin Jefferson had just a fifteen point six percent target share. That was his lowest of the season. So I'm not ready to crown Jordan Addison a weekly must start. Hold Kate Otten. In three games without Mike Evans this year, Caate Otten averaged a target chair per game rate of twenty eight point three percent. With Evans in the lineup, that target share fifteen point nine percent, And with Evans back in Week twelve, Kate Otten had a ten percent target share that was his lowest since Week two, and that's definitely concerning. We shouldn't dismiss the fact that Mike Evans being in the lineup will hurt Kate Otton. But before you go searching for a new tight end, I do want to offer some hope. The Giants have been low key, really good against tight ends this year. They've allowed the lowest adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year, and they've been one of the best at limiting fantasy points too. They haven't allowed a top twelve tight end one performance since Week four in PPR formats. Now there's some fear of the Buccaneers schedule may make them a less pass friendly team. After all, they close out the fantasy season with matchups against the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers. That's why last week on the show, Bucky Irving was a bye. But there are some good tight end matchups in there. They get the Panthers twice and Tampa Bay has one of the higher pass rate over expected rates in the league. They won't just abandon the pass, so don't give up on auton Ja yet. Even if the split with Evans isn't very favorable by David and Joku, so I think we'd all agree that Cleveland's Thursday night game against Pittsburgh kind of weird. It wasn't a normal one. The weather clearly played a role, not in the outcome of the game, but how people were compiling fantasy points. With that being said, David and Joku still underperformed. He only had three point nine PPR points and more than half of that came on a two point conversion. He got just one pass for nine yards against the Steelers. To me, though, this is a very clear by low moment, and Djoku ran a route on every single Cleveland Browns drop back this past week. He's still finished with a respectable eighteen and a half percent target share. That's not far off from his twenty percent target share per game right without Amari Cooper, and even with this poor performance, he's been averaging well over fourteen PPR points per game without Amary Cooper in the lineup the Browns rest of season's schedule. On paper, it favors tight ends a lot more than wide receivers, according with justin Fantasy points allowed, and Joko has a top ten favorable remaining schedule and a top five fantasy playoff schedule. Now, I talked about in Joku as a bye right before Mariy Cooper left town, and I think right now is another nice by Low moment. Add Noah Gray. Noah Gray was featured on last week's Sleepers episode. I never thought that he was going to score twenty two point six PPR points. It was a decent process call out, but the result way better than I expected. He's now scored over forty PPR points over his last two and that's coincided with a slight uptick and route share over the last month or so. Gray's been added above a fifty percent route share in each of his last five games. He was there just once during his first five games of the year. Now, do I think that he's gonna have super predictable production. Probably not, But if Travis Kelcey were to miss any time, there's a very real chance we'd be valuing Noah Gray as a tight end one in fantasy football, So you might get some usability from him. Even without a Travis Kelsey injury and deeper formats just given the increase in usage. But then you have this contingent upside as well. That makes him an interesting player to add this week, at least in those deeper formats. Add Russell Wilson if you need a streamer this week, Russell Wilson should work. The Steelers get the Bengals, and the game has a relatively decent forty six and a half point over under. Cincinnati's been the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks this season by justin fantasy points allowed, and Russell Wilson's been decent. He has yards per temporates well over nine yards and three of his five starts this year. It's a little bit scary because of the divisional matchup, but the Bengals are a beatable defense. Add the Dallas Cowboys defense. The Cowboys with a healthy Micah Parsons, they've recorded four four plus sacks and two of their last three games. The Giants, their opponent this week, have allowed an average of four sacks per game. With tackle Andrew Thomas sidelined, New York has now allowed a top ten defensive performance in Fantasy football in six of their last seven games. Dallas is a three and a half point favorite on Thanksgiving and that game has a low total. They make plenty of sense as a streaming defense. I've got a bonus transaction for you this week because there was an injury that happened on Monday night. But that bonus transaction is to add Gus Edwards and Kamani Vaidel JK. Dobbins unfortunately suffered a knee injury on Monday Night against the Ravens. He missed the second half. Now I'm recording this late on Monday night. At this moment, I don't know that much about this injury, but if Dobbins misses time, we should expect Gus Edwards to take on a lot of the early down duties in that offense. Now, Hassan askins, he's been dressing over Kamani Videll, but Videll would be in uniform if Dobbins is out. And when you look at the skill set to the three running backs there, Videll is the one who profiles most as the receiving back that could provide some fantasy value. So I think Edwards is sort of the safer option Videll in PPR formats he might have a little bit more upside. Just keep tabs on the situation. As of right now, not a lot is known. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestwarting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB and I'm on Blue Sky as well with that exact same handle. Thanks for listening to everyone. Like I said, you get two episodes tomorrow. One's the ten Trend Show, the other ones the Sleeper Show. I'll talk to you then,