Bullpen Blunders End Braves Win Streak

00:00:20
Speaker 1: How come one and all to the Hammer Territory Podcast. My name is Sean Covin Hope. Wherever you are and wherever you are listening, Hey, it's another exciting episode of the Hammer Territory Podcast. Lots to get into as lots has happened when it comes to the Braves, both on the field and off the field in recent days, and in my opinion, there are very few of any better to break it down than my podcast partner, Stephen Tolbert. Stephen, always a pleasure to talk with you, sir. I hope you've been well.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: What's up, buddy, Yeah, it's been a little bit so, I mean, I thank you and I did a show on Friday, and I guess because so much has happened since then, it seems like we haven't talked in a while. But yeah, some stuff to get to tonight. Obviously, the winning streak comes to an end. Tough game tonight against Saint Louis. We're recording immediately after the game, so yeah, it was a it was a tough end to the streak. It was nice to finally get a winning streak, to get some momentum. We've seen some positive signs. We've also seen some negative signs. We're gonna talk about it all tonight, but they did get a winning streak, finally finally won multiple games in a row for the first time. So those are you know, those are good hurdles to clear at least, But now we got to sustain. Now we got to sustain, and we got some issues coming up that the brains are gonna have to figure out and kind of some hurdles that they're gonna have to clear, I mean these next couple of weeks at least. So but yeah, but it's always good to do these with you.

00:01:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, it lets you know, go go right to it. You know, no, no, no spoilers here. The big thing that's kind of being revealed over the PA over the weekend, you know, the brain is winning four in a row to not unfortunately dropping the sect game of the series to the Cardinals, is the fact that some of the concerns when it comes to this Braves team has been you know, how good would this starting staff be coming from last year in which it was arguably the best in baseball to this year where we've had some injury concerns, and also coming from an off season where one key factor, one key ingredient of the success in the Alexandapolis era has always been a deep and talented bullpen. This bullpen significantly less deep, significantly less talented than we've seen in previous years. We'll get to the good things that we've seen over the past couple of games when it comes to the Braves offense, But Stephen, one thing that I will say is is that even though we've had this four game winning streak, tonight also showed there are still plenty of concerns when it comes to this pitching staff, but the starting staff as well as the bullpen.

00:02:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny because there's there's kind of been a shift. You know, the offense was kind of the problem, not kind of the problem. There was the problem for the first three weeks of the season. It was just can they score runs? And slowly, you know, the Braves' best hitters, we're gonna talk about them here in a minute, but Riley, Olsen, Azuna, Murphy, you know, even Verdugo to some extent have kind of picked it up. And you know, they're scoring now and they're hitting homers again, and it feels a little bit normal to see them score runs. And so there's kind of been a shift where run prevention now I think it is becoming more of an issue. And you know, Chris Sale has not been good. There's no sugarcoating that he hasn't and you know, he says he's healthy. His velocity still looks good, but he hasn't been good. And some of it is luck. You know, the babbit stuff is real. Spitcher Swallenbach, the last couple of starts has not been normal. Spitcher SWAMBACKX. His strikeouts are down for the year. He hasn't really been striking. A lot of guys out been giving up a lot of contact, a lot of hard contact. Obviously, now with the you know we learned about Spencer Strider, Grant Holmes has probably been the most consistent starter on the in the rotation, quite honestly. And that's both a credit to Grant Holmes but also kind of terrifying if I'm being honest, And then you get to the bullpen and the bullpen is just a mess right now, and it's a it's a concern I am. I have kind of fully shift where Okay, the offense, the guys I expect to be good on offense are being are good right now, like they're doing their job, hitting homers, getting on base. You know, the guys who are not supposed to be as good are not being very good right now, but you know that's going to happen. At least the best guys on the offensive side of the ball are doing their job. So my shift, my focus is kind of shift to the run prevention and it's it's a it's a big concern right now now.

00:04:51
Speaker 1: And the reason why we say it's a concern is because, yes, the big four when we're talking about Austin as right now, Austin Briley, Matt Olsen, Marcelo's, Sean Murphy, they're doing very well. Sean Murphy and Austra rally had big hits over the past couple of nights. They you can't ask more of them. They're doing their jobs. But it goes to show that the reason why teams win in baseball, they would consistently is because they're so good in several different areas. And it's good to see. You know, we've talked multiple times this year about our best need to be at their best in the biggest moments. We're starting to see the Braves' best hitters do that. That's why we won four in a row. But then you look at the overall statistics so far this year and you look at things such as, you know, how does the Braves offense do at the beginning of games? Well, you know, through the first five innings of games combined this year, they are twentieth in WRC plus, they're twentieth in w FIP. When it comes to a starting rotation, I believe they're around twentieth. When it comes to the bullpen, I believe that they are eighteenth when it comes to runners in scoring position. It's great to see our best hitters doing their job, but the rest of this team, steven is below average in areas where we can't be below average. The reason why we were able to survive and make the playoffs last year despite all our offensive struggles is because of elite pitching. We had among the best pitcher in among the best pitching staffs in baseball. There's not really an elite element of this team right now, and there has to be. Something has to emerge to be elite for us to get out of this hole that we're in currently at nine to fourteen. Even with the recent winning streak.

00:06:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you look at the names, right, like which unit on the team has the best chance to be elite at some point, And we thought it might be the rotation because Stryder was coming back. You had Sale and Schwallenbloch, you know, you had Grant Holmes, like there was a world where if everybody stays health and everybody pitches to their level, that unit could be elite. Well, now Strider's out and Chris Salestill hasn't look good, and so you know, Bryce Elder is gonna have to pitch a lot more, which is always terrifying. And so now you're gonna have to look at the offense, and you know, until Akunya comes back, I don't think they're gonna be elite. I think they could be very good as long as these top four guys, you know, I'll add Dugal, I'll say the top five spots in the order. As long as the top five spots in the order can keep producing. You know, they're doing a good job every night of putting threats on the board, of having rallies. They're not always you know, they're still struggling with runners at score Vision a little bit, but at least there are constant threats, which is not something we were getting at all the first three weeks. But you're right, I think the biggest difference is every single year under Alex. There have been years where we've had not a great rotation, and there have been years where we had not a great offense, but there's never really been a time where the Braves didn't have a great bullpen. And as we sit here today, the Braves I think r like twenty eighth in baseball and bullpen war, they're like twenty second in eer. You know, they're they're basically in the bottom third in every category around the bullpen. And it's not you know, that's not shocking. I mean, Rossi Iglesias has gotten off to a terrible start, Dela Santos has really fallen off after a solid start. You know, they've been just rotating these minor league you know, DFA signings and minor league signings in the last couple of spots. Aaron Bummer's been good, Day's Bell's been good, but just about everybody else has been shaky. Even Dylan Lee has been a little shaky. And that's not something the Braves can really afford. So, you know, We said it all off season that we they desperately needed more pitching on this team. They needed more relievers, they probably needed another starter, and they didn't do it, and so now you're paying for it because not only have you had guys not pitching well, but you've also had injuries. And that always happens, and that's why you need more depth going into the season because there's always gonna be guys who get hurt, and there's always gonna be guys who don't have the kind of year you're expecting them to have, and you gotta have depth to cover that up. And the Braves just didn't do that in the offseason. They did not protect their depth on the pitching staff, and so now they're paying for it, and it's gonna be fascinating to watch. It's gonna be fascinating to watch how this pitching staff evolves. Listen, the Braves are gonna keep rotating these guys in the back of the bullpen. Craig Kimberl's gonna come up soon. I wouldn't expect a lot, but it's gonna happen. They're probably gonna keep you know, other teams will dfa somebody the Braves will bring them in for a week, you know, that's just what they're gonna have to do until it actually gets the trade deadline season and they can add somebody. But it's not good. And this is the like you said, this is the first time in a long time the Braves have not had a really good bullpen, and they might have a bad bullpen. And that's a tough way to try to win a World Series is with a bad bullpen, and it's a tough way to win a pennant or a division, will win anything, quite honestly. So I'm pretty down on it. And I've been down on the bullpen all, you know, the whole offseason, but right now I'm not feeling great about this bullpen.

00:10:10
Speaker 1: We'll get to the bullpen more in just a second, but we do want to put the spotlight on someone that certainly deserves it. And the thing that heads out to me is I want to put the spotlight on the fact that we talk about these four guys Matt Olsen's Sean Murphy as well as Barcelo Zuda and Austin Brightley. I want to talk about you know, we talked about Sead Murphy pliny, but in the same light as Sean Murphy matt Olsen. The thing about it is is that matt Olsen has had a very good start to the season, just like the other three guys, but he could be even better. You know, he has a three fifty five wOBA coming into tonight's game. His expected wOBA is four twenty one. Another home run tonight. But the thing about matt Olsen is this is that he could be a very streaky hitter. But typically if he gets going early in the season, you're in for a potential top tier EVP season like we saw in twenty twenty three the Braves Deed Hoverers. He's providing plenty of power and he potentially has room to grow with the fact that his expected results are even better, and hopefully we're starting to see more and more of the expected results become reality matt Olsen. You know, again, there are times when he could be ice cold, there are times that he can be red hot. He's coming through in the moment, has been a big catalyst over the past five games to really help out this offense. I think that we have to see more of that from him. We need a top ten the MVP season for Matt Olsen, and he at least is getting off to that type of a start.

00:11:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like we just said, this is the this is the group where the Braves still have elite players, these kind of the top of their lineup, and this is the group that if they want to go on a run right now, is probably gonna be the group that's gonna have to lead them. And it's in a lot of ways, it starts with Matt Olsen. Right he's the only lefty of the group of the big four that we're talking about, And so we've talked about this before about how he kind of as he goes, the Braves go, And I'm I'm still a firm believer in that, even though the Braves have done a much better job balancing out their lineup putting more lefties in the lineup, I'm still a firm believer that as Matt Olson goes, the Braves go, especially offensively. And yeah, he's had a really strong start. I know the results haven't fully been there. I know the expected results are still you know, out pacing the actual results, but even his actual results have really started coming up. You know, I think he's at like a one thirty five WRC plus after tonight. You know, he lives in like one forty one fifty range when he's going well, so like he's he's close to where he's he's usually sitting, and he's It's gonna be massive, I mean, especially especially this stretch without Spencer Strider, and especially until we get Jerks and pro far back and Ronald Acuna Junior back, and until they can get to the trade deadline and pick up some real action, talented relievers. The Braves are gonna need their offense to carry them in a way that they never had to. Last year. They had the best rotation in baseball. Last year. They had the number one ERA in baseball last year because Chris Sale was awesome, Ronaldo Lopez was also, Max Freed was awesome, Specier Swallenbaugh came out of nowhere to be awesome, and so they didn't have to hit. And they had a really good bullpen last year, Rossioglesias and Joey Minez two of the best seasons by any relievers, you know last year to the best relievers in baseball last year. They don't have that.

00:13:28
Speaker 3: This year.

00:13:28
Speaker 2: They don't have the best bullpen in baseball. They don't have the best starters era in baseball. They're gonna have to beat you know, last night they won a game seven to six. That's what they're gonna have to do. They're gonna have to win games seven to six or six to five or eight to six. They're not gonna have a lot of two to one wins like they had last year. And so that's gonna be the question. Can this offense step up and actually not just do their job but go above and beyond, And it's Matt Olsen is one of the main catalysts for it, and so that's probably gonna determine how the next month goes. Is can the offense carry the weight? And if Matt Allison is doing what he's been doing so far and Austin Riley and Sean Murphy and Marcelo Zuna, then they have a good shot. They have a chance at it. I wouldn't have said that three weeks ago or two weeks ago even, but they've really picked it up, and credit to them for doing that. But this next month is going to be determined a lot by this offense and specifically these four guys, and maybe more than anybody, Matdilson and so yeah, it's critical. It's a critical part of the next month of the season.

00:14:37
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00:15:06
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00:15:37
Speaker 1: As good as it is to see the top of those four players that we mention be as good as they are, it's great to see. Obviously, it's good to see Alex Berdugo get going so far this year as well. He's been really really good. There's there's no doubt that him taking over that leadoff spot has helped out when it comes to the four game winning streak that we have. But the other thing that I will say is this is that you look at the flip side of things, and as good as that four has been, the last four spots in the lineup have nearly been just as bad. And that's where I kind of want to put the focus on, you know, these opportunities. You know, we had an opportunity tonight where the score was tied four to four runners on first and third, one out Ozzy Albi's and Michael Harris coming to the plate and both of them put together you know, pretty you know, lackluster at bats. The thing that I'm saying is this is that as good as those four that we mentioned are, it's amazing to see how good they can be. They're going to have to be amazing. You hope for Dougo can continue. He's not gonna be as good as he's been, but you hope that he can at least be a capable lead off hitter. Michael Harris the second and Ozzy Alby's they have got to get better at putting together productive at bats. I'm not saying that they all of the sudden, you would love for them. They have the potential to be among the best in their position. I'm not even saying that they need to be there, but they just cannot go through these stretches where they put together bad.

00:16:59
Speaker 5: At bat after bad after bad at bat because of the fact that you already have two nearly automatic outs in Jared Kelnick spot or whoever's playing, you know, instead of Kelnick in the outfield in the shortstop position.

00:17:12
Speaker 1: As good as our four best hitters are, we cannot have the bottom of our order among the worst in baseball if it's our offense that's going to have to carry us for the foreseeable future.

00:17:25
Speaker 2: No, it's a fair point. I mean, I'm worried about Ozzy, I really am. You know, he doesn't make a lot of money so like the bar he has to clear to be worth what they pay him is very low. But just in terms of what you're talking about about having a deep lineup that's going to have to support a much less talented pitching staff. Like every single bit of Ozzie's profile, all of his like raw data, all of his raw skills, all of his batted ball stuff is in the toilet. I mean, like his just his skill set. Like he's got one of the slowest bats in the league. He's in like the bottom five percentile in bat speed. He doesn't hit the ball hard, he doesn't get on base. You know, he's not a great defender anymore. He's not really any kind of impact player on the basis he doesn't run the way he used to. His whole thing is power. He's got to hit. You know, he's got a slug. He's not an on base guy. He's not a defensive guy. He's not a base running guy. So he's got a slug. That's the only thing left. And so if he's not slugging, he's not helping you. And we've just we haven't seen it. And the bad speed stuff scares me. A lot of the bad at ball profile. Stuff scares me. You know, one weird thing. I don't even know why I know this, but like his pop up rate has like tripled in the last three years. Like it used to be at like seven percent, and that's how many what percentage of your bad at balls or pop ups? Well now it's like twenty percent. Like he's around like twenty percent pop up rate, which is weird. And it usually because your bat slows down and you're not being able to get on top of balls the way he used to, and he's popping everything. We saw tonight there was a runner on third with one out, he's up, he gets a fastball right down the middle and he pops it up the right field and they don't get the run. So yeah, Ozzie worries me. And we know we've talked about Michael and you know his inability to take walks and be selective at the plate and swing at good pitches. When he does swing at good pitches, the results are incredible. It just doesn't happen enough. Shortstop is another position that I want to talk about Orlandoarcia for a second. There was a point where Orlandosia was a legitimately good defender and you could justify him being out there even if he gave you nothing offensively, which he normally does. But that time has passed like Orlando's just not even a good defender, Like there was a there was a play tonight, where as soon as it happened, everybody on Twitter was like Nick Allen would have made that play, Like his range is just gone. And if Orlando C is not even gonna give you defense, then I don't know how he even stays on a roster. I forget the lineup. I don't know how he stays on a roster. I don't know if he's on the twenty six or forty man roster. He literally can do nothing else. He can't Ronnie can't hit, if he can't field, now, I mean, he's a mascot at this point, what are we doing? So yeah, short stop is a problem. Kelnick. I think kel Nick's gonna get options. I mean, the only reason Kelnicks still on the team is because profar cheated, And if pro Far hadn't been suspended, kel Nick would already be off this team. So yeah, the last four spots in the lineup or a problem. That's true, And I don't have a lot of hope for two of them, but Ozzy and Michael need to wake up, and Ozzy specifically. I'm worried about Ozzie long term because just the skill set has just fallen so far, and all the measurable stuff has fallen so far, and I don't know what to make of that, to be honest.

00:20:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the thing that I'll say is this is that you know, I agree with you, fellow podcaster Scott Coleman. You got to remove Ozzie from that fifth spot. You know, if you look at our runners in scoring position from the fifth three eight spots, it goes sixty eight WRC plus in the fifth spot, fourteen in the sixth spot, and to a one twenty six in their negative fourteen in the sixth spot I believe, to a one twenty six and the seventh spot, and then like a twenty six or something in the eighth spot. The point that I'm getting at is is that it's not just about I'm not asking the bottom of our order all of a sudden to become to the equivalent of most lineups. Middle of the orders. Just have productive at bats. That's the whole point about it.

00:21:34
Speaker 2: And give us, give us something.

00:21:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's where it struggles, is that they're just the skill sets. The areas where Michael Harrison Azzie Albi struggles where as on Lando RCO when he plays, is that they don't get on base, they don't put together good pitches in terms of not swinging at bad strikes, all that different stuff. There's very few productive outs and that's got to change if our offense is what is going to carry us, because the reason why we talk about our offense carrying us is because of the impact that you're going to get from the Spencer Strider injury. Of course, Spencer Strider, he talked about the injury in case you did not hear about it yesterday. Basically in pregame more than what Spencer Strider was doing his long toss like he usually does, and he said that he felt, I guess a pull a stem, what have you? Went into the dugout, talked with the team, told to me he probably wasn't going to be able to make his next start, which was scheduled for today, until he was put on the fifteen day IL. It seems like that it could be multiple weeks to even a month before Spencer Strider is back. So now, Stephen, what that does is that it puts even more pressure on your pitching staff, especially your starters, to be able to perform well. And we looked it up before we started this podcast. Right now, so far through twenty three games this season, the Brave starters are averaging five innings per start. So now you take Spencer Strider out of the equation. So let's look at it. You've got Chris Sale who has struggled to get to five innings all year long. You expect at some point he'll get to five or six innings, but it's no longer as much of a guarantee. Can you survive five innings of Bryce Elder going out there every fifth day? That is a big question.

00:23:15
Speaker 4: Say a J.

00:23:15
Speaker 1: Smith Schaufer comes back up and replaces Spencer Strider, he has been a struggle to get to five innings. The only real guarantee that you have is Spencer Schwellebach, and he has struggled over his past few starts. So I say all that to say this, not only are you losing the obviously quality of Spencer Schrider when it comes to him not being available due to injury. Now it exposes your starting staff's lack of ability to go further into games even more so, now you've got to rely on the bullpen, which we're all concerned about, to pitch even more innings than it already has, which means that you possibly are going to see more results like we did tonight. You're in a bullpen game. It's just that snowballing effect, that ripple effects, Stephen, and it does not put this in a good position. That's the reason why we're so concerned about run prevention in the pitching staff.

00:24:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, we talked about the guys on the main guys on the offense that needed to step up. Well, I mean now it's time to have the same conversation. The Braves need Chris Sale and spinscher Swallenbach to be awesome because when Bryce Selder pitches, if you get five innings of four run ball, you're lucky. When A J. Smith Shaalber pitches, and I'm guessing that's who's gonna take over for Spencer Strider. You know, if you get five innings of full run ball, you feel like that's kind of what you expect. Even with the Grant Holmes pitching as well as he's pitched, he gives up so many walks, he's he's not gonna pitch deep in the game. I know he had that one game in Toronto he pitched in like the eighth inning. That's rare for him. He's normally gonna be a five to five and dive guy, maybe six. Right, And we've already talked about how the bullpen is nowhere near the quality it's been the last few years. So if you already have three guys in rotation who are five and five guys at best, Grant Holmes is probably a little more than that, and you have a bullpen that is not nearly as good as it used to be. That means those first two guys in the rotation you desperately not only need quality, but you need you need length, You need you need innings. And like Chris Sale is averaging less than five innings per start through like five starts. He hasn't made it to the sixth inning yet in a start, I mean, the brains cannot survive like that. Spencer Swallenbach got off to a really good start, but you know he's dropped off the last couple of games. Strikeouts have come down a lot since last year, which is kind of weird. They need those two guys to be awesome that they don't have any choice. You know. Sometimes that's what's Sometimes that's a catalyst, right, you need it more than ever, and so the guy starts delivering. That's what I'm hoping happens with Sale and Schwallenbach because without Strider, without Lopez, we're still too far away from the trade deadline for anybody significant to be added. They don't have any help. And like we said a million times, they did not add anybody in the off season. So you got Spencer Strider, are you I'm sorry. You got Bryce Elder, you got aj Smith, Shovern, You've got Grant Holmes on three of the five spots. That means you need Chris Sale and Spencer swallow Back to be ace level pitchers. And we haven't seen it from Chris Sale this year. We've seen it a couple of times for swollen Back. But the Braves need this more than ever now because the bullpen is not going to be able to hold up with the starters pitching five innings every night. They need some you know, we gotta get some, We gotta get some length out of the rotation, and it starts with the two horses up front, and the Braves more than ever need those two guys to step up. Now that Strider's gonna be out for probably you know, it's probably gonna be at least a month, so it's time for Saling Swallow back to reassert themselves as ace level pitchers.

00:26:59
Speaker 1: Absolutely, because at this point, you really that's the whole thing, that's the theme of this podcast, is that with each loss like this that we experience, with each opportunity that we have of losing a winnable game, it just makes our margin for error even smaller, even smaller, because then that means for the rest of the year, we've got to be on a ninety plus win pace. And right now, just to be honest with you, there are not many characteristics of this team that support being at a ninety win pace. More to come in just a moment after a word from our sponsors.

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00:28:44
Speaker 2: I'm just god they have and they don't win.

00:28:52
Speaker 3: It's a shame.

00:28:53
Speaker 2: Brass Gun.

00:29:04
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Hammer Territory podcast. So Stephen, the other thing that stands out to me is that when we talk about this bullpen, is that you know, you got word that you know, Craig Kimberl has started to get you know, some activity going in the minors. He looked good in Columbus. He's on his way to Gwinnett. I think there's probably a chance, you know, hey, if he has a good rest of the week in Gwinnette, you may even be able to see him before April in the Braves bullpen. But the thing that stands out to me is that again we talk about who potentially could take Spencer Schrider's spot in the rotation. The point that I'm getting at is is that we've already seen kind of a game of musical chairs when it comes to the back the rotation as well as the back end of the bullpen. Not the back end, but the you know, basically the middle innings guys of this bullpen. That's only going to continue to happen, and you hope at some point we find the right formula of guys that will stick. We talk about Spencer or Swellowbok as well as Chris Sale right, so Iglesias, those guys needing to step up at the level that we expect him to be. You hope that A. J. Smith Shouper as well as Craig Kimberl, two guys who are gonna come on. They can stick as well. But the brain just needs some of these moves to start sticking and hopefully contributing.

00:30:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, so with Kimberl, I've heard mixed I've heard mixed things. He looks he's getting guys out, you know in the miners. I heard the velocity is not great. I've heard it's like ninety two ninety three. You know, Craigs have been around for a long time. There's a lot of miles on that arm. So like the guy who used to throw ninety nine one hundred is long, long, long gone. And so the question is going to be, you know, how much effectiveness is that fastball gonna have at the major league level. There was some talk that he might become more of an off speed guy. That knuckle curve that he throws that is so effective, you know, there was some talk that maybe the are going to try to get him to throw that more because the fastball just isn't what it used to be. I don't know, no one knows. I would just have I would just temper your expectations. If you're expecting Craig kimberl to come in and save this bullpen, because there's a reason he was available in late March on a minor league deal. Well, I guess he got a split was it a split contract or I can't remember what it was, but it wasn't a lot of money, and it was in late March and so and he was not He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the second half last year. So I would just temper expectation. I really hope people don't expect Craig kimber to come up and save this bullpen. There's no good answer to the bullpen. There just isn't. Like, not until we get to trade deadline season, the Brakes can go out and add actual, real quality relievers what they should have done in the offseason, and for reasons I'll never understand they didn't do. Until that happens, the bullpen is just going to be a massive question. And I don't know there's only one or two guys down there at trust you know. I know we talked about the fact that Rossio Iglesias was probably gonna regress this year. I'll be honest, I did not expect the regression that we've seen to this level. I didn't expect it to come this fast, this hard, like I was expecting more of a gradual regression. So that's been kind of a kick in the nuts, to be honest, as bad as he's been. So there's only a couple of guys in the bullpen that I trust right now, and that's a tough way to live, especially as we were talking about earlier, when the rotation is not giving you very many innings and you've got to cover four innings every now and at the bullpen. So that's you know, that's why we've opened the show with how my my my concern is kind of shifted to run prevention when you add in some of the defensive stuff with with Arcia and and even Ozzie, Like, run prevention is now more of a problem to me than it was before, and the bullpen is a big part of it. And I don't have a good an nobody, I mean, there's no good answers right now. You know, this is why you're supposed to go add people in in November, December, January, because right now, in April and May, there's no really good way to do anything. So this is the group they have and we'll see, We'll see.

00:33:10
Speaker 1: And it all comes full circle back to the Braves have got to take care of business when they can take care of business. And again we shift back to our best Ford and on Wednesday, that's what they've got to do. We're looking at Miles Michlss versus Bryce Elder. Michlas and Elder have been two of the worst starters in baseball since the beginning of last year. Both of them are very, very hittable. Both of them give up a ton of hits, a ton of contact. The Braves have got to show why they are a better offense in this game. Neither team really has the advantage when it comes to starting pitching. The Braves have the advantage when it comes to the offense. That's what's got to step up to get this done. Because because I know that I've kind of harped on this in the past, but I'm gonna bring it up again. You win tomorrow, you're ten and fourteen. That to me is a lot better than being nine and fifteen going into the next nine or ten games, because in the next nine or ten games, you've got the Diamondbacks to Rockies. Then you've got the Dodgers again. This Brames team badly needs to be within three games or better of five hundred to end this month. They really can't afford to be five games or worse. And tomorrow is one of your more winnable games over your next ten. You got to get the job done tomorrow. It starts with those four main guys in the offense. But also it would really really be encouraging to see an Ozzie or perhaps a Nick Allen or somebody like that. It would be to see it. It would be awesome to see an unexpected guy do well. And hey, if Bryce Selller wants to throw a quality start tomorrow, that'll work out as well. I will say this, the Braves badly need him to go five six innings at least tomorrow. Take him to pressure off this bullpen again. I know I've said this before. I'm not saying tomorrow as it must win. The Braves have got to get the job done tomorrow. They just have to.

00:35:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, it's tough. Anytime you really really need to win a game that Bryce Elder is pitching, it's gonna be the offense. It's just it just is it's just gonna be the offense. I mean, I expect the Cardinals to score five runs at least tomorrow. Can the Braves cover that up? Is the question. Like you said, it would be very nice if like a Michael Harris or even a Jared Kilnick would pop a homer, somebody unexpected to come in, maybe Drake Baldwin gets to start tomorrow. It gets to righty, it'd be nice if somebody kind of other than these four guys that have kind of been doing everything could contribute to that. But yeah, I mean the Braves, like I was just sitting here thinking, man, the Braves need like they're like, if you think of like the the seven best players on the team right now, you got Olson, Riley, Ozuna, Murphy, you got Chris Sale, you got Specer Swalla back, and you got Rossiel Iglesias. Right you got your big seven right now. The Braves need those seven guys to be elite for the next month because there's just not enough on the bottom. The back half of this roster right now. The back half of this roster is not a playoff team. It's not. It's the back half of this roster right now is closer. It is probably closer to a team near the top of the draft next year than it is a playoff team. Like the back half of this right you just go look at the names. It's like, who is this team? Go look at the bullpen, you know, the bench. The back half of this roster is not good, which means the top half of the roster and and specifically those top seven guys. The Braves need those guys to be elite for the next month, until they get some reinforcements, till they get Strider Akunya pro for is not too far away, Like until those guys get back. The Braves need their best players to be elite because the depth of the roster is not gonna do anything right now, especially with teams like Arizona and La coming. They need their they need their best to be the best. And that's what I'm gonna be looking for.

00:37:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the thing that I'll end with that is this is that they've got no choice, right, Like that doesn't happen soon. We're eventually gonna come to the point, and he can even come before those guys come back, Like there is a there is a realistic chance that if the offense or the Braves don't continue to put some wins together even in May, again not saying that the season's over. And I know that there have been many seasons in the topless era where May and June we've struggled and then we just take off as well in June for the rest of the season. But the last time that happened was in twenty twenty three. We're now coming up on a year where if you look at this team from the start of twenty and twenty two through April twenty fifth or twenty sixth of twenty and twenty four, you see why they were elite. You see why they were so damn good. But now we're coming up on a year where, okay, this team is not the same level that it was. So that's what I'm giddy, Daddy, is they have got to figure out either the best have got to be the best, or some others need to step up and play at their level. They got no choice but to do it now because if they don't do it now, they get into a point to where it's kind of out of their control and it's going to be very hard to make this up. If we find ourselves six seven games below five hundred a month from now, Stephen, anything else from you as we wrap up this edition of the Hammer Territory podcast.

00:38:37
Speaker 2: And I'll just add this listen to Mets have the best record in baseball. I don't know how many people know that, but like quietly, the Mets have the best record in baseball. They've passed the Padres and the Dodgers and all those So right now in the brains, I think are eight games back. That's a lot. That's a lot for not even being in May yet. I think the only two teams that are further back in their division right now are the Rockies and the White Sox. And so to your point, the Braves cannot afford listen. I know they came back from a ten game deficit a couple of years ago, but that team was much more talented than this current team is. This current team has a talent problem, specifically in the bullpens, specifically in the back half of the rotation, and specifically in the non top four parts of the lineup. There's just not as much talent and coming back from multiple ten game leads is unlikely anyways. So like the Braves are only a few weeks away from being twelve fourteen games back. If they don't pick it up, and if they don't have these guys play the way they can play, specifically the best players in the roster, it's gonna be very interesting. I'm gonna be very interesting to see if specifically Chris Sailing and Spitzer Swallenbach more than ever, the Braves need those two guys to find it and start contributing to wins instead of having to be carried in their starts. They need those guys to be elite. With Spencer Strider out, acun is still probably a month away, not a month, probably less than a month at this point. But yeah, they need their best players to be awesome, and we'll see if they can. We'll see if they can do it.

00:40:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, Because the simple truth is this. If you consider the six best teams in the National League to be the Dodgers, the Padres, the Diamondbacks, the Braves, the Mets, as well as the Phillies. If you thought those were the six best teams in the National League coming into the season, well there was one guaranteed fact about that thought process, Steven, one of those teams wasn't making the playoffs because they're all in the West and they're on the East. Yeah, so not only now to the point to where the Braves clearly are the team of those six that's not turning right now to make the playoffs. But you've also got to hope that one of those other teams performs bad enough not to make the playoffs. That's why it's so important. You've got to control what you can control right now, make the most of it. But I'm getting into a bit of a rant, I know, don't want to get too negative anything along those lines. The point that I'm dealing with just right now, Steven, we talk about shifting from the concern from this team is offense to the concern for this team is run prevention. I also think that one another thing that we're dealing with, we are who we are. That's kind of what we're dealing with. We are who we are. You hope that we get better, but it's gonna take guys stepping up who have not stepped up in a while.

00:41:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Mike, you know, Michael Harris and Ozzy Avis can make things a lot easier. Absolutely, they just wake up. Absolutely, But yeah, it starts with it starts with selling Swallenbach. Those are the guys that the Braves need to be aces again, and things get a lot easier if they if they handle their business every five days.

00:41:45
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, and hey, you know what, the off season and the rest of the week podcast will be a lot easier if the Braves can get the job done. But regardless of rain or shine, wins or losses, struggles or success, we're gonna be here covering everything with you when it comes to the Brazen. The Hammer Territory podcast called the Foul Territory family of podcasts. You can find me at stats sac on Twitter, Steven to be under Square Outliers, Hammer Territory across all forms of social media. Foul Territory across all forms of social media. Scott and Brad will be back with you wrapping up the Cardinals series. B and Stephen, we'll be back with you later this week looking at the West Coast road trip. Until then, go Braids. We'll talk to you again soon. Here my Hammer Territory podcast