529: Mailbag 7/30/21

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up Everyone?

00:00:12
Speaker 2: It's JJ Zacheres and the editor in chief at Fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode five and twenty nine of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in, Hey baseball fans, Fandel is giving you an exclusive way to get in on the action with the MLB Single Entry Series presented by Rotogrinders. Each week, enter a featured Single Entry Series contest to win cash and compete for a seat in the forty thousand dollars online final. Just play daily and Fandel will add your four highest point totals together to get your combined score and rank for the week. So head over to Fandel and enter the MLB Single Entry Series today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Head over to Fandel dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. The first question this week is from at TYFM NFL.

00:01:02
Speaker 1: What's up? JJ?

00:01:03
Speaker 2: Love the show and have always been a big fan of yours. Thanks man with the injury to Michael Thomas, who has taken the biggest shot up and biggest shot down in your rankings. Besides Michael Thomas, would love to hear your thoughts on this. So, besides Michael Thomas, the only players who don't benefit from this injury from a fantasy.

00:01:19
Speaker 1: Perspective, they're the quarterbacks.

00:01:21
Speaker 2: Naturally, the Saints have a super thin wide receiver group, so not having Michael Thomas there for a chunk at the beginning of the season, that's not good. I will say though, and I tweeted about this when the news dropped, but this could increase the chances that we see Taysom Hill as a starter to kick off the season, because if Michael Thomas is out, it would only make sense for the Saints to go with an offensive approach where they have this dual threat quarterback and they lean more heavily on the run. The pass catchers in that offense, including Alvin Kamara, get a bump, though Kamara to me, becomes a little less risky because of his splits without Michael Thomas and the fact that he'll have a safer target share floor each and every week even if Tasom Hill is quarterback. That's just how projections work out. Despite how much his target share dropped with Taysom Hill last year. I don't think there's any one obvious at wide receiver to target without Michael Thomas, though, or a wide receiver is going to be some plug and play starter without Thomas, the offense just likely won't support that, and the wide receivers on that.

00:02:17
Speaker 1: Team won't support that.

00:02:19
Speaker 2: It's not like you're gonna have to pay up for that player, though, so it's not that big of a deal. I do think that Adam Troutman gets a little bit more interesting. I'll get to him with the next question this week. This tas questions from at LIMP takes. With the injury of Michael Thomas, does Adam Troutman fall into the potential breakout category? Very possible. He'll be drafted ahead of both Smith and Callaway, and Peyton could make up for the lack of a good quarterback. So yes, I've always thought Troutman was a decent late round tight end target this year. I talked about him a month or two ago on a Mailbag episode. The one thing I'd say, though, is that the criteria that I laid out on the show on Monday, it's not there to change for convenience or that's not how we should think of it, Like, even though he'd be drafted ahead of Smith and Callaway, he's still not going to be the top pass catcher drafted from his team. That's still likely going to be Michael Thomas. And like I said on the Breakout tight End Show, you want these tight ends to be the top pass catcher drafted from their team. Anything else doesn't really matter.

00:03:20
Speaker 1: So just because he's being.

00:03:21
Speaker 2: Drafted ahead of those players doesn't mean he fits the criteria laid out on the show earlier this week. And the same goes for the quarterback thing. Tight End breakouts are coming from teams that have good quarterbacks by ADP.

00:03:34
Speaker 1: The Saints don't. Factually they do not.

00:03:37
Speaker 2: Even though Sean Payton is there, even though he's their head coach. It doesn't mean we should just gloss over that trend. In all honesty, I don't think Troutman fits the criteria laid out on that show super super well. He's athletic enough, but he had just a slightly above average speed score. The good news is he's a second year tight end, so there's at least something, but he'd kind of be coming from nowhere without that target shair backbone He's not the top pass catcher being drafted from the Saints by ADP. He doesn't have a good quarterback attached to him. There are players who fit the criteria worse than he does, but he's definitely not a great fit. That doesn't mean I'm not drafting him. I try to be clear that it's very hard to find players who clearly fit that criteria, and I think Troutman is fine as a dart throw, but I don't think he's like this obvious slam dunk late round tight end this year, where there are a lot of guys who profile similarly. There are still question marks surrounding him. I actually liked Troutman before the Michael Thomas news more than I do now, only because more people are probably going to be in on him. I have him exactly at his recent ADP, which is a round tight end twelve, So I was higher on him beforehand, and now I'm at market value, which is why I'm going to have.

00:04:51
Speaker 1: Less of him now.

00:04:52
Speaker 2: But overall, with Troutman, there's a lot of general ambiguity in that offense, and he was a pretty good prospect. He had strong college production. The athleticism isn't lacking. He has good size and he could capture a nice target share in that offense, especially without Michael Thomas. Sometimes that's enough to allow a player to break out, even if he doesn't fit the criteria laid out on Monday's show All That Well. This has questions from my friend at Bethany L.

00:05:20
Speaker 1: Peters.

00:05:21
Speaker 2: She says, Hey, JJ, love the show, You're welcome. What makes a player better for Dynasty versus redraft and vice versa? Besides age, I had my first Dynasty draft a couple of months ago, and fear I just wasn't keeping this in mind. Thanks all time listener friend of the show, Bethany L.

00:05:37
Speaker 1: Peters.

00:05:38
Speaker 2: So one way to think about Dynasty and to think about this question is to think about the timing of the investment of a player. In a redraft league, you're only needing to invest in these players for one year, and Dynasty is forever. Sometimes the one year outlook for that player could look drastically different than the career long value. Like I think Brandon Auk is a decent example of this. If we assume Trey Lance plays a little bit this season, then we're working under the assumption that Brandon Ayuk will be catching passes from a rookie and a mobile quarterback. I did studies a month or so ago on why those two things are not good for pass catchers on that player's team. So that's bad for Ayuk hypothetically, but I think Ayuk is a very very good player long term that'll be less of an issue, especially if Trey Lance hits. So Iu can be considered someone who's better in Dynasty than in redraft. Age, of course is sort of embedded here, but it's just an example. A better example that sort of looks at things in reverse is with Jalen Hurts. He's young, but I see Hurts as a better redraft investment than a Dynasty one. Why because there's a very real chance that he's not the long term answer at quarterback in Philadelphia, So buying into him in Dynasty brings a lot more volatility, and there's a lot bigger of an investment. Buying into him in redraft is just a random middle round selection that won't make or break your team. If he doesn't pan out this year, you're not ruined. But we know the upside is there given his rushing, So it can be about how long these players may keep their job. If there's worried, then you shouldn't buy them at a premium in Dynasty. If there's not any worry but their short term potential isn't necessarily elite, then you can buy in Dynasty and sell in redraft. This ask question is from at pel three one six. What tips would you give to someone who is trying tier based drafting for the first time. I've set up my own tiers, but I'm wondering what are the common things to avoid doing?

00:07:32
Speaker 1: Thanks.

00:07:33
Speaker 2: The best advice I can give you is to try your best to not draft at the top of your tier. Don't draft the first player from a particular tier, because that means you're not extracting as much value as you can possibly extract.

00:07:44
Speaker 1: If you've got a tier of.

00:07:45
Speaker 2: Four running backs at the top, let's say, and then the next tier has five running backs, you want to do your best to get the fourth running back from that top tier and not the first running back from that next tier. I know this is obvious, but it's literally why we're working with tiers when we draft.

00:08:01
Speaker 1: So as you draft crossoff players.

00:08:03
Speaker 2: On your tiers and be ready to pounce when you've got just one or two players left in a certain tier. That's the easiest way to explain it. And again, maybe this is super super obvious. Maybe I'm just stating the obvious, but I felt like I had to say it. This sus question is from at No Meet and Team. I feel that Stafford is criminally underrated this year. McVeigh, the receiving weapons, the draft capital for a non konami. Doesn't he have a very nice floor ceiling combo? Isn't Justin Herbert being drafted where Matthew Stafford should? So I wouldn't say Herbert is being drafted where Stafford should. I'd say Stafford is being drafted where Herbert should. I mean Justin Herbert. I think at least has more mobility than he showed last year. I do think he's got more potential and upside than Matthew Stafford does. But generally the way they're gonna score points this year, yes, they should probably be closer in ADP, but any pocket passer, as I always say on the show, they need to someone have an outlier season from a touchdown rate standpoint to be a true difference maker in fantasy football. I mean, guys, Aaron Rodgers is coming off an MVP year where he had the second highest touchdown rate of all time and where he threw forty eight touchdowns, and he still was third in points per game last year, and he could have been fourth if Dak Prescott played the entire season. Tom Brady threw forty touchdowns last year and he was the QB ten in points per game. The rushing component just matters so much for ceiling. I think Stafford's set to have a very good year. I have him as a low end QB one, but I would much rather have other quarterbacks where they get drafted versus Stafford where he gets drafted, because for him to really hit that ceiling, he's gonna have to have some sort of outlier year more than likely. Is he someone you'd want to bet on having that short compared to other quarterbacks because the situation is really good? But do you actually want to bet on that? Do you actually want to bet on Matthew Stafford having like an eight percent touchdown rate or seven and a half percent touchdown rate? Just get a mobile quarterback instead. This nest questions from at Baseman Football. In your Breakout tight End episode, you didn't mention John new Smith he seems to fit your criteria with the exception of a stud quarterback. He's athletic, ADP after round five, likely drafted as the first pass catcher unless Hunter Henry is ahead of him. I feel he is going to get fed this year. Your thoughts, Yeah, So, just like the other breakout studies that I've done, there are definitely a lot of tight ends that you can point to that I probably overlooked. Again, tight ends aren't going to fit the criteria perfectly. It's a lot looser than the other positions in my opinion. But I got this about John new and I got other people talking about Dallas Goddard after that show, especially Dallas Goddard. A lot of people thought that Dallas Goddard fit the mold perfectly of being a breakout. But DeVante Smith is being drafted ahead of him, and Jalen Hurts is not a top five quarterback by and the fact that he's a middle round tight end while also not being the first player selected from his team that actually scares me.

00:11:06
Speaker 1: A little bit.

00:11:07
Speaker 2: But John News Smith is definitely an interesting one.

00:11:11
Speaker 1: I think the study.

00:11:12
Speaker 2: Says that he should be a bye for the reasons that you mentioned in this question. I haven't bought into him a whole lot, but I probably should based on everything that I talked about on Monday. I sort of put John Who in the same bucket as like Chase Edmonds and Michael Pittman. Those are three players I wasn't totally bought into before the studies that I did Who. I'm more bullish now on after those studies, so I probably should have called him out. I also probably should have called out Dawson Knox for the same reasons that I called out Blake Jarwin. So Dawson Knox is a decent late round dart throw. So if you guys have any more of these players who I may have missed and didn't talk about, feel free to hit me up on Twitter, and remember to check my rankings over a Number five's draft kit.

00:11:53
Speaker 1: Just go to number fire.

00:11:54
Speaker 2: Dot com, click NFL twenty twenty one draft kit, and then expert rankings. This best question says, who do you prefer to break out Daniel Jones or Sam Darnald And why can I say neither? I mean, let me first say that I am not high on.

00:12:10
Speaker 1: Either of these quarterbacks.

00:12:12
Speaker 2: I don't really care if you want to draft them in a super flex league or something, because they're likely going to have their jobs all year. But I'm not sitting here ready to call them true breakouts. If I had to pick one, though, I'm gonna go with Daniel Jones. I know Darnald has had this awful situation with Adam Gase, but how a quarterback performs early in his career is usually telling for how he's gonna perform throughout his career. Ryan Tannehill's situations don't happen all that often. It's good that he's getting a scenery change and he's in the right spot to turn his career around. And again, everyone is down on Sam Darnald, so it's not like you have to spend up to get him anyway. I don't mind at all if you want to take a chance, because the cost is not significant. I'm just not going to be super high on him given what we've seen historically. The important piece of this question, though, is rushing. Fall back on rushing as a tiebreaker, since we know that's so important at the quarterback position in fantasy football. Darnald has averaged three rushes per game during his career. Daniel Jones is over four and Jones has been far more efficient on those rushes. He's averaged three point three Fantasy points per game on the ground over his two seasons. Darnald's averaged one point nine. I'll say that Darnald has the better situation, but the rushing makes me want to give Jones the edge. But I'd be very surprised if either guy is a true plug and play option this season.

00:13:35
Speaker 1: This last question is.

00:13:36
Speaker 2: From at BDFFB because he is going late in drafts or even undrafted, as Tua the cheat code quarterback we should be targeting for twenty twenty one, So I really don't mind Tua, and I think that what Miami did in getting Will Fuller and Jalen Waddle makes a ton of sense. They want players who can separate for a quarterback who's going to feel more comfortable throwing the receivers who are open. He's not a contested catch type quarterback like Ryan Fitzpatrick was for them. That's why I'm actually lower on Devonte Parker this year. But here's my thing. Tua right now will go like forty picks after Ryan Tannehill, so you're getting him later, sure, but the opportunity cost where Tannehill goes is not very significant. I would much rather go for a player like Tannehill, who's had the best adjusted yards per attempt rate in the league over the last two years, whose average over twenty one points per game over the last two years, whose team could end up being far more pass heavy this year than they've been over the last couple of years because the personnel that they have and the suspect defense that they have, and the fact that they just got this new weapon in Julio Jones.

00:14:38
Speaker 1: I would much rather just go for that than to throw a dart.

00:14:41
Speaker 2: On hitting on someone else. I think that's how the quarterback position has sort of changed, and if I'm gonna draft one late, I'd rather just go for some variants and lots of rushing upside with someone like Justin Fields. So it's not that I don't like Tua. I actually think that I'm higher on him than the consensus. I just would rather go those the routes. I would just spend up a little bit more and get Ryan Tannehill, or spend up just a little bit more, a tiny bit more and get Justin Fields, because I think Justin Fields is a lot more upside given his rushing than tu It does. And for the record, Ryan Tannehill should be drafted closer to Russell Wilson than he is. He's incredibly undervalued right now. That's going to do for today's show, though. Thanks to everyone for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found and overget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, Enjoy your weekend.