857: Week 17 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host jaj zacher rethas j Jake zacher Reson. What's up everyone, It's jj Zacheryson in this episode eight hundred and fifty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I wasn't very happy with Week sixteen's results. The Sleeper Show can get tougher as the season goes on and people catch on to certain players, but that doesn't explain last week's results. They just weren't very good. The quarterback streamers were fine. I talked about Derek Carr and Joe Flacco. They had good weeks. Gardner Minshew wasn't awesome, but he also didn't have Michael Pittman, which was something that was important for his stream ability. But there wasn't really anything special beyond those guys. Dantavian Wicks found the end zone. Greg Dortch did too. Tyler Boyd was fine, but Josh Down's disappointed once again. Michael Wilson continued his streak of not catching his targets. Wandel Robinson had a serious opportunity for a decent day, but he fell short. Parker Washington was terrible. It just wasn't that great of a week. This is the last Sleepers episode of the season. It's actually the last episode related to the twenty twenty three fantasy season in general. Let's go out in a high note. So, as you guys know, I split up this part of the show by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and then players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. But this week there are only four players in that ladder bucket. So instead of splitting things up, I'm just gonna go through a bunch of players who are rostered in zero to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you may consider. Starting this week Championship Week. We'll kick things off with the quarterback streamers. The first one Derek Carr. He's been a top seven option at the position in back to back weeks, and he now gets a Tampa Bay secondary that's allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points of quarterbacks this season. New Orleans doesn't have an amazing implied team total, but there aren't many obvious streamers this week at quarterback. I have Car at QB fifteen, so I think he's a solid enough QB two. The other streamers riskier. Kevin O'Connell came out this week. He said that he won't name a starting quarterback. Now I'm assuming it's gonna be Nick Mullins. But what this means is at number one, it might not be Nick Mullens, but number two he could have a short leash if he does go. But Mullins and the Vikings they're at home in that game. As a forty six and a half point over under, Minnesota actually has one of the better implied team totals of the week. Despite the injuries offensively, Green Bay has not been great defensively. That's why they gave up a QB nine performance to Bryce Young last week, and they allowed a QB two performance to Baker Mayfield the week before that. They've been a bottom six defense this season and passing epa per drop back aloud. I don't feel great about Mullins, but I do think he's a high risk, highest reward type option. Now you could look at Joe Flacco this week too, But like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, I'm not nearly as bullish on Flaco as others are across the industry. Flacco gets the Jets New York has allowed just two top ten performances this season to quarterbacks. Those two quarterbacks or Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. The Jets are the toughest opponent by justin fantasy points allowed. Now. Flacco's average an impressive nineteen and a half points per game since he became starter, but we should note that three of his four opponents this season ranks top eight options for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. The only moderately tough opponent that Flacco's face with Chicago, and they rank as the fourteenth best opponent. He hasn't been tested like he's gonna be tested on Thursday night. In a normal week, I wouldn't be talking about Flacco, but there really aren't a lot of options this week. I think Flacco's a little bit safer than Mullin's given all the additional stuff going on with the Vikings, But I feel like a lot of people are ignoring this tough matchup against the Jets. He's a QB two, but I don't think he has the same upside as Derek car Now, moving on to running back, let's go back to Justice Hill. He played sixty two percent of Baltimore's offensive snaps on Monday night, and he saw fifty three percent of the team's running back rushes and a nine percent target chair. Those aren't bad peripherals. Now, the Ravens are in a potential high scoring affair with the Dolphins this weekend. Miami hasn't been the easiest opponent for running backs this year. They actually ranked dead last also in adjusted target share allowed to the position. That might limit Hill's receiving upside. But Hill is the back in that backfield who's not gamescript dependent, and it's a good scoring environment. Volume could make him a reasonable flex option. I talked about Clyde Edwards a lair on the fifteen Transaction Show, so I won't go into a ton of detail here. Just know that if Isaiah Pichecko is out this week with his concussion, CEH to me is a fringe RB one option because not only would Pachecko be out, but Jared McKinnon's out too. He's on ir. Edwards a lair would be a legit bell cow for Kansas City against a beatable since defense. I honestly think that you should feel pretty confident in CEH if Pacheco's out now, another injury to monitor is with Josh Jacobs. If he's out, Zamir White would be an RB two type play. He scored seventeen and a half and fourteen and a half PPR points over his last two and in Week sixteen he hit a ninety two percent running back rush are for the Raiders and they get the Colts this week. Indy's a top five opponent for running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed. I think White would be a great play if Josh Jacobs sidelined once again, and then as sort of a deeper play here. Kenneth Gainwell didn't really work out last week for the reasons that I talked about on this show, but he didn't have a terrible outing. I thought maybe the Eagles would see a nice positive game script and they'd give DeAndre Swift a rest, but Gainwell scored eleven PPR points because the Eagles had some two minute offense situations and according to Fantasy Life, Gainwell played eighty percent of the two minute snaps last week for Philadelphia. This week, though, Philly's a ten and a half point favored against the Cardinals and Arizona is the second best matchup for running backs, so I could see gainwell with a decent outing. It wouldn't be something I want to bank on during the finals, but there are some deeper leagues out there. And speaking of deeper leagues, Jalil McLoughlin, that's a deep play for you. He saw his highest route participation, snapshare and running back rush here since Week six this past week, and the Broncos get the Chargers. Now. LA looked better this past week without Brandon Staley, but they've been one of the worst defenses in football this year across all positions. They've given up the eleventh most adjusted points to running backs. I'd obviously rather play Javonte Williams from this backfield, but McLoughlin does make sense as a deep sleeper. Now, speaking of the Broncos, let's talk about these wide receivers. Even with Jared Stidham as quarterback, Courtland Sutton's dealing with a concussion, the Broncos could be down to Jerry Judy, Marvin Mims, and Brandon Johnson. And that's against one of the most advantageous matchups that you can find in the Chargers. Now, Judy would be my top choice, but obviously he's him pretty rough this season. If he's rostered, you could look to Mims and Johnson. Like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, Johnson's the safer choice because he ran more routes than Mims last week and he saw an additional target. But I still think that Mims has more big playability. He might have the upside, so if you need that in your lineup, you could go Mims's way. The thing is, though, I can't imagine trusting these guys in a normal ten or twelve team league, but in a deeper one where you may have some injuries, the matchup is there for this to make some sense. Denver sitting with a reasonable twenty two point total this week according to Fandels Sportsbook. Noah Brown has had some goose eggs over the last month, and he wasn't fantastic against Cleveland this past week, but that was a tough matchup. He's also been playing with backup quarterbacks. That was the case when he faced the Titans a couple of weeks ago, but in that game he saw a season high thirty two percent target share and he scored twenty two PPR points. He's been running as a starter since Tank Dell went down Over his last two games. In particular, he's seen role participation rates of eighty five percent. I'd expect that to maintain into Week seventeen, and with CJ. Stroud hopefully back, that could result in some fantasy production. If Stroud isn't back, then he's obviously a riskier flex play. Rashi Shaheed ran around on a season high ninety three percent of New Orleans dropbacks in Week sixteen. He ended up scoring eighteen PPR points on a twenty two and a half percent target share. That target share tied to season high. If that usage continues, he could be a nice play in Week seventeen. As I mentioned before, the Saints get the Bucks and the Tampa Bay secondary has been beatable all year. They've given up the third most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers. Next up is a reliable wide receiver who probably doesn't have a massive ceiling, but it's to Mario Douglas. Douglas has now seen a twenty three point four percent target chair per game rate over his last seven, including a twenty five point eight percent rate last week against Denver. Now, he hasn't found the end zone, but he can be a nice PPR off especially considering the Patriots face the Bills this week and they could see more passing than usual as eleven and a half point roade underdogs. If we don't get Jordan Addison this week, then kJ Osborne's in play. I talked about him in the fifteen Transactions episode because we saw him with a ninety percent route participation last week, a twenty percent target share and over twenty PPR points. Green Bay has been an average opponent for wideouts by justin Fantasy points allowed this year, and as I noted with Nick Mullins, they've been playing some pretty bad defensive late. So if Addison is out, you could go with Osbourne. The Marcus Robinson yet another fifteen Transactions player, but Robinson played as LA's number three wideout this past week, even with two to two out well back. That's a great sign. He's seen an eighteen percent target chair per game over his last three, and he's hit thirteen PPR points in each of his last four. The Giants are plus matchup for wideouts too, and the rams of the seventh best implied team total on this week's slate. It's not a bad idea to get a piece of that offense. And then the last wide receiver here is another deeper play. It's Greg Dortch. We'll see if Marquis Brown plays this week. If he does, I don't think you can feel very good about Arizona wide receivers outside of maybe Marquees Brown, but he's even a risk given his injury. Dorch has played at least seventy percent of Arizona's offensive snaps just three times this year, and each of those three games he scored between eleven points seven and thirteen point six PPR points. Now, he has two touchdowns in those contests, but his target shair per game rate in those games is twenty and a half percent. That's not bad usage. Basically, when he's on the field, they're targeting Dortsch at a decent rate. Arizona gets Philly this week. The Eagles are the second best matchup for wideouts by justin fantasy points allowed, So I think that Dortch is kind of interesting. And then for the record, if Brown does play, Rondell Moore is also kind of interesting. He's played almost seventy percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and the Eagles have allowed the second highest target share to that area of the field, and they've even got the most slot targets, slot receptions, and slot yards. In this scenario with Marquise Brown playing, Rondell Moore would probably play the slot and then Hollywood and Michael Wilson would be on the perimeter. Again, that's if Marquise Brown goes now moving on to tight end. I don't mind Chicka Conquo this week. He's actually had an eighteen percent target share over his last eleven games. The Titans offense just isn't very good, so it's rarely turned into a lot of fantasy production. He finally hit double digit PPR points this past week, though, and now he gets Houston. The Texans are the third best matchup for tight ends and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and they've given up the second highest adjusted target chair to tight ends two so you could look at Conquo's way. There's also Gerald Everett. Everett gets the top matchup on paper against Denver, and he's seen a twenty five percent target chair in back to back games without Keenan Allen and Donald Parhum. If both of those guys are out again, Gerald Everett's a great streamer. If they're back, He's still an okay play given the matchup, but definitely not as a tractive with East and Stick under center. Finally, there's Tucker Craft. We've got a lot of injuries going on with Packers pass catchers, and Kraft has scored ten plus PPR points in three straight games. He's also hid an eighty percent round participation in four of his last five. The Vikings aren't the best matchup in the world, but Kraft could see enough volume to work out. Now, moving on to streaming defenses, let's look at Houston. First, they get Tennessee. The Titans have allowed a top ten defensive performance in four straight games, and they've been sacked six or more times in three of those contests. Houston's a top five team this year in pressure rate, so they could get to the quarterback a lot in this one, no matter who's under center. Now, looking at percent roster numbers over on Yahoo, you could also look at the Rams. They get the Giants their big favorites, and the g Men have allowed the highest sack rate this year across the league. I also think people are still sleeping on Vegas like a lot. They get the Colts, and the Colts defense is actually rostered in a lot more leagues than the Raiders defense. Maybe it's because they're playing at home. I don't think Indy's that bad of a play. I think they're a streamer too, It's just that they're rostered in far more leagues than the Raiders when the Raiders. Since Antonio Pierce took over that team, the Raiders have ranked first in Fantasy football in points per game defensively for real, They're averaging thirteen point six standard defensive points per game, more than any other team since basically early November. I think both the Colts and the Raiders could work this week, but I'm leaning more towards the Raiders given how well they've played. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and fit to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Before I let you guys go until the new year, I just wanted to thank you. I'm so lucky to be doing this and to be talking to you guys each week. As I said earlier this week, I really don't lose sight of that, or at least I try not to. I'm doing what I love to do, and that's a very rare in space thing. But thank you sincerely. I hope all of you learned something by listening to the show across the season, and I hope you were able to take things to the next level as a fantasy football manager. And I hope you had some fun doing it. That's what's most important. I know I probably sound like your dad right now, but hey, I'm a dad and I hope all of you guys had a lot of fun during this fantasy football season. So thank you all for the support this year. I'm really excited about all the new stuff that I'm gonna be doing over the off season, so I hope you stick around. But even if you don't, thank you your support means the world. Have a great new year everyone, And since I am a dad, I've got to say a dad joke to close this thing out. I'll talk to you next year.