1059: 15 Transactions for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha, j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten fifty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Two announcements before we get started this week. First, it's Thanksgiving week, which means a different content schedule. You're getting this fifteen transactions episode at its normal time, and then tomorrow you get the ten Trends episode at its normal time too. But with this Thanksgiving slate and with my own schedule, I'll be publishing the Sleeper show on Wednesday as well, and then that's it for the week. Late Round subscribers will get the standard rankings and rankings updates on Patreon. All that stuff will still be there, it's just you're only gonna get three shows in this podcast feed this week. Next week we'll be back on schedule. And there's one more announcement that I want to make before I talk about these transactions. I made another hire and very excited about it. Last year around this time, I announced that I was bringing on David Kitchen to be Late Round Fantasy Football's chief operating officer. That was to help grow the business and allow me to focus more on creating content. This hire is to help enhance Late Rounds content. I'm bringing on one of my old coworkers from Number five and Fandle. He was my right hand man for years there, Brandon Godola. Brandon's gonna be joining the Late Round team in January as a senior analyst. He's gonna be helping me out with research projects, with enhancing my prospecting work, with the newsletter, with the guides, with offerings for subscribers. There's so much to get done, and he's one hundred percent the right person to help because he understands how to research, and he understands the type of content that I do each day with this business. Now, from your perspective, nothing's really gonna change. You're still gonna hear my annoying voice on the show. You're gonna get the same analysis that you've always gotten. This is a hire that will simply enhance that existing content, and it's gonna allow me to work on projects that I haven't been able to get to through the years. So there's more to come there. I just wanted to shout it out and let everyone know that the team is expanding and that we can all look forward to an awesome twenty twenty six and with Thanksgiving being on Thursday, I'm really really thankful for that. Now, let's get to these transactions. Add Devin Neil and Taysom Hill. So Alvin Kamara suffered an MCL injury against the Falcons on Sunday. It's not a long term injury more than likely, but we could see him sidelined for a couple of weeks currently, though there's no timetable for how long he's going to be out. But with Kendre Miller already out for the season, rookie Devin Neil he's gonna have to step up and be the Saints' top running back. And honestly, I've said this in the past, but Devin Neil looked really good in the ZAP model, especially for a Day three pick. He has a three down skill set. Now, with that being said, there are two major things working against Neil. The offense is one of them because it's not very good. That's gonna limit scoring opportunities. The other big problem is Taysom Hill. According to PFF, Neil played a solid fifty seven of a possible sixty six snaps. After Kamara's injury on Sunday, Taysom Hill was at twenty one and thirteen of those twenty one came in the backfield. Despite that fact, He'll ended up out attempting Neil on the ground ten to seven. Now, when you look at these snap rates, I'm not sure that's gonna maintain and keep up. I don't think we can assume that Taysom Hill is gonna have more rush attempts week in and week out without Alvin Kamara than Devin Neil. But we know Taysom Hill is going to get some usage, and we know that that usage will often come in the red zone. That's gonna cap Neil's upside. So you can add both of these players. I think Neil's the more valuable piece because he's a running back and he's gonna see more work overall, but Hill can work as a touchdown bet in your tight end spot. Just not that Hill's not seeing a lot of work through the air. He's getting less than a target per game, so there's far less PPR appeal with Taysom Hill. By Jalen Waddle. The last time we saw the Dolphins offense, Jalen Wattle finished in a plus matchup with three catches for fifty two yards. Then the Dolphins had their buy. Now, I understand that in a lot of leagues trade deadlines have already passed. I get it when you hear these buy and sell recommendations from here on out through the end of the fantasy season. It's also a confidence thing. You can know whether or not you should feel good about a certain player, and with Jalen Waddle, I would at least feel good. Since Tyreek hill went down with a season ending injury. Wattle's average about a twenty six percent target chair per game rate. That's really strong even with that down Week eleven outing. He's just shy of fifteen PPR points per game without Tyreek Hill. So you're getting really good usage and really strong production from Wattle right now. But that could look even better given their matchups down the stretch. Waddle gets the Saints, Jets, Steelers, BEng and Buccaneers to close out the fantasy season. None of those teams rank his bottom ten teams for wide receivers by justin fantasy points allowed. In his playoff schedule. It's Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay. Those are all top half matchups for wideouts by justin points allowed. So the usage is there, the production is mostly there, and the schedule is great. That's why you should be buying Jalen Waddle. Add Colston Loveland. We're gonna talk about a lot of tight ends today, and one of the tight ends that we're not going to talk about is Darren Waller because I mentioned him last week. So if Waller's still on your waiver wire, you can add him too. I figured i'd bring that up because I just talked about his teammate Jalen Waddle. But let's move on to Colston Loveland. In Week twelve, Loveland had a routeshare of sixty eight percent. That was his highest in the game with Cole Commett this year, and that resulted in about a seventeen percent target share. Loveland currently has a one point seven to six yards per route run rate. Not only is that a whole lot better than Comet's point nine to seven rate, but according to PFF, it's a top ten rate among qualified tight ends this year. And remember, Coleston Lovelin's a rookie. This is just like Luther Burden and it's in the same offense. Both of those players have been really, really good per route run and maybe we don't see everything come together this season, but the talent is clearly there, and we want talented players on our rosters. Sell Caleb Williams. It's been a really weird year for Caleb Williams. Like, I don't even know if we have a clear cut answer about him long term. He's shown glimpses of being great, but then he makes some really costly mistakes. But if I'm just being objective right now, he's dead last in the NFL and completion percentage over expected according to Next Gen Stats. Now, that doesn't necessarily matter for fantasy, and he's coming off a game where he scored twenty one point seven standard points. He's actually been a top six quarterback top six pre Monday Night Football, to be fair, but he's been a top six quarterback in three of his last four games. Those games, though, they came against the Bengals, Giants, and Steelers, those teams are comfortably top ten opponents for quarterbacks when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. Moving forward, it's not going to be that clean. The Bears close out their fantasy season with matchups against the Eagles, Packers, Browns, the Packers again and then the forty nine ers. They have one of the worst remaining schedules for quarterbacks. You may want to make other plans if you've been relying on Caleb Williams add Dylan Sampson. Look, we're firmly in handcuff season, and Quinn shown Judkins. He was in the blue medical tent multiple times against the Raiders on Sunday. That led to Dylan Sampson hitting a twenty nine percent running back rush here that was as highest since Week one. He also had a long touchdown reception which led to sixteen PPR points. Considering Sampson's fifty seven percent running back rush are in nineteen percent target share without Judgekins in week one. If Judkins were to miss any time, whether this week or future weeks, Samson could be worth a start. And Cleveland is one of the best running back schedules rest of season. And andre Yosi Vash so Jamar Chase missed Week twelve because he was suspended, and that allowed andre Yosibash to hit a ninety percent routes heare and a twenty one percent target chair. Now Chase is going to be back this week against the Ravens. But T Higgins he's out. He suffered a concussion against the Patriots. That means Yosi Bosh is going to be the number two option at wide receiver for Cincinnati on Thursday night against Baltimore. And Joe Burrow is going to be back. And for what it's worth, probably not worth a ton, but it is interesting. Last year, in two games against the Ravens, Joe Burrow threw for eight hundred and twenty yards and nine touchdowns. So it's an interesting spot for andre yosibash Ad Mike Siki. So another Bengal to watch out for on the waiver wire this week is Mike Yasiki. He returned from injury in Week twelve. He went right back to his pre injury usage. Actually, you could argue that it was even better. He saw a sixty seven percent routshare against the Patriots in an eighteen percent target chair. That was his highest target share of the entire season. Now, like I said, T Higgins, he's going to be out on Thursday, Kasiki could be in store for more work just because there's one less body in that offense. But remember Kasiki plays a lot out of the slot Baltimore has been fine against tight ends this year, but they rank in the top five and adjusted fantasy points allowed to slot receivers. Kasiki's first in the NFL this season among all tight ends with a seventy three percent slot rate according to PFF. So not only is there some potential usability long term, but you can at least use Kasiki this week as a streamer by Tyler Warren. If you'd rather not just stream at the position, you could buy into the position. And if you're gonna do that, Tyler Warren's a really interesting choice. He's now failed to hit double digit PPR points in three of his last four. He did that in six of his first seven games of the season. It really hasn't been a usage problem, though his target share per game it's technically higher over his last four games. It's just an effectiveness and touchdown issue. But the Colts have also faced the Titans, Steelers, Falcons, and Chiefs over this four game stretch. Three of those matchups their bottom ten matchups for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed. Moving forward, things should be a lot easier for Tyler Warren. You know, up until this point in the season, Indianapolis has actually had the second toughest tight end schedule in football according to my numbers, But just one of their next five games is against a team that ranks as a bottom half opponent for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed, and that's coming in Week thirteen this week when they face the Texans. After that, it's Jacksonville, Seattle, San Francisco, and then Jacksonville again. Those are all top ten matchups for Tyler Warren. Warren has a very real chance to do damage in the fantasy playoffs. Add Brenton Strange. This has been a pretty tight end heavy list of transactions this week, and there's more to come, including Brenton Strange. Strange came back from ir this past week against the Cardinals and he more or less just played the exact same role that he was playing earlier this season. He had a roudshare of seventy one percent. That's strong, and he had a seventeen percent target shair. Over his last three completed games, he's hit target chairs of eighteen percent, twenty three percent, and then seventeen percent. That gives you a shot at usable production each and every week. Just do be aware there's probably gonna be a slight volume dip when Brian Thomas is back and healthy. Ad Jaden Reid, I've talked about Christian Watson quite a bit over the last few weeks on the show. You don't need me to call him out as an AD. But Jaden Reid I haven't talked a ton about. I did on a mailbag episode a couple of weeks ago. But let's talk about Reid for a second. Reed's twenty one day practice windows opened. He should be back soon. And while his slot focus roll in Green Bay does limit his upside, That's what I talked about in that mailbag episode. The Packers are really missing a presence in that area of the field. Tucker Craft tore his ACL back in week nine. In the Packers three games since Jordan loves yards per a tenth rate has gone from eight point three to six point zero. And yes, that's a small sample. Clearly other things are going to influence that number, but it does show that Green Bay's passing attack needs a little bit of help, and maybe Jaden Reid can be that help. The Packers get the Lions, Bears, Broncos, Bears, and Ravens to close out the fantasy season. The only tough matchup on paper for wide receivers there is Denver, but they've been pretty average against slot receivers. That's a tougher matchup for someone like Romeo Dobbs or Christian Watson. So I think Jayden Reid at least has a shot to give you like wide receiver three numbers down on the stretch if things break his way. Sell Hunter Henry Hunter Henry managers need to be aware that Week twelve was more than likely not the start of a trend. Cincinnati is absolutely terrible against tight ends. They've allowed by far the most adjusted fantasy points of the position this year, and with Henry's touchdown against them, they've given up thirteen touchdowns to tight ends this year. That's six more than any other team. Pre Monday Night Football, Henry had gone seven straight games without a double digit pper point performance prior to that game against the Bengals. I highly doubt that Hunter Henry is gonna be someone that you throw into your lineup each and every week rest of season. Ad Raheem Moster so Ashton Genty has an ankle injury. Right now, it doesn't seem serious, but we know how this goes Sometimes Monday, everything's fine. Friday, they're placed on Ir. Not to say that's gonna happen with Gent and hopefully it doesn't happen with Gent, but you never know what's gonna go down with this kind of thing. Now, if Genti were out, I do prefer Raheem Mostert over the other running backs in that offense. Zamir White would probably dress and get more work on the ground. There's that potential for sure, but mostly it's the one who's been dressing and getting some work in this Raiders offense this year, at least as a pass catcher. And because he's been deployed as that pass catcher, and because we know Zamir White isn't that much of a pass catcher, I would prefer most At. Because we know that this Vegas team is not very good. They're going to face some negative game scripts and that's going to be more Mostert than Zamir White. So I guess you could look at White, but in PPR formats, in most formats, I'm gonna lean towards Raheem Mostert. By Saquon Barkley. It's been a really tough year for Saquon Barkley. He's given fantasy managers only two top ten performances in PPR formats after doing that ten times in twenty twenty four. The Eagles offense just isn't moving like it was last year, and Barkley's been far less efficient. But I bet you'd be surprised to learn that Barkley's running back rush here per game rate this year it's eighty two percent versus eighty one percent last year. His target share is fourteen percent when it was twelve percent last year. Now that's on less volume and less quality volume, but his backfield share remains really, really strong. That's what you have to latch onto if you were to buy Saquon Barkley right now, because obviously going after him it's a highly volatile move. It's a move for more desperate teams who need that variance. It's just that word a low point right now. Barkley's coming off a pretty miserable game against the Cowboys, where he scored his twelve PPR points. He's averaged eleven point eight pper points per game over his last three. The thing is his peripherals. In Week twelve, they were actually pretty good. He saw ninety percent of Philadelphias running back rushes in a twenty two percent target share. That's the first time that he's been in an eighty percent running back rush aer better and a twenty percent target share better this season. Now, the tush push is always going to be a problem for him, but Philadelphia's schedule is so so good for running backs rest of season it could simply set up more scoring opportunities. In Week thirteen they get a beatable Bears defense, then it's the Chargers, and then the fantasy playoffs they get the Raiders, Commanders, and Bills. Those are three top ten matchups for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed, Like there's a serious possibility that Saquon Barkley is pretty usable during the most important weeks of the fantasy football season. Add the Los Angeles Chargers defense. So fantasy managers drop the Chargers defens this past week because the Chargers were on a bye. But this week the Chargers get the Raiders. It's a great matchup. They're nine and a half point home favorites and Vegas has a lot of the second most saxon football this year, and according to my numbers, they've been the second best matchup for defenses by justin Fantasy points allowed. So if the Chargers are out there, they're a phenomenal streaming defense. Add the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Now, the Chargers might not be available in your league, but the Buccaneers they could be. They're out there in about eighty percent of Yahoo leagues right now, and as I talked about on this podcast in the past, they've got a beautiful stretch of games to finish off the season. Tampa Bay gets the Cardinals this week, then it's the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season. The Bucks defense isn't anything special, but those are all top ten opponents for defenses by justin fantasy points allowed. At the very least, we'd be calling out Tampa Bay each week as a streamer, so it could be helpful if in your league, if people are hoarding defenses to just have them rostered because you hypothetically could use Tampa Bay every week from here on out. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are rustreting for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for it to follow me on Twitter and on blue Scale at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Like I said, the ten Trends episode, it'll drop tomorrow, and then later in the day you'll get the Sleepers episode. I'll talk to you then