What’s Next For The Braves After Signing Jurickson Profar

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone. On Boked episode one four to two of the Hemmor Territory podcast. I'm your host, Brad Rowland, coming to you late on a Sunday evening in late January into Monday, and I am joined as I always am, by Scott Coleman. Scott, as we were talking before we started recording. It's been while since you and I in particular spoke on this podcast. We had some pre recording. There was a transaction in between.

00:00:42
Speaker 2: But uh, here we are again. How are you hello, Brad? I am doing well. It is nice to see your face. It has been a little while. Maybe that's what the podcast needed for you and I to take any break into will a transaction with jerks and Profar and just a quick little bit of trivia here for you just right off the jump, because this caught me by surprise earlier. Do you know what is two months from Monday? As most folks are going to be listening to this Opening Day I believe is we're going with that? Yeah, opening Day? Yes, we are sixty days away, six zero sixty days away from opening day, which you know, for an off season that has been so slow for most of it up until seventy two hours ago.

00:01:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're getting close.

00:01:27
Speaker 2: I think pitchers and catchers report in like three weeks and then full team a week later, and I think we're like a month away from the first spring training game and then two months from opening day out in San Diego. So slowly but surely we are getting there. And I mean I kind of I looked at a calendar earlier, I was like, oh, wow, all right, we're getting We're getting closer.

00:01:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, the countdown is kind of on now, and I guess we were trying to slow it down a little bit when the Braves weren't doing anything, and now it's okay, I'm ready for it to be there. In some respects, we should say it was top of the show if we if you have any new list eners in the podcast, which we hopefully do. We are part of a Fouat territory. As a network, we are Hammer Territory. We cover the Braves all year round, really truly all year round. We don't take any breaks at all on the podcast, even though we probably should at some point because that's just sick of behavior. But hey, here we are through sixty five and if you missed it, number one there we did an emergency podcast. I wasn't on there of course. Of course, of course the one thing that Braves do was on the same night as a Hawk's home game, so I was like totally unable to jump on the podcast. But we were salvaged more than salvage, I would say, by the three man trio, Scott, Steven and Sean. But it was about the Braves signing Jerks and Profar to a three year deal. If you someone missed that, welcome back to reality. Here we are. The Braves have made their first big splash of the winner, and I mean we did a full podcast about that, but it was a reaction episode. Things have happened since then. Alex has now spoken he was actually talking as you guys were recording the other night, spit some more contexts from that. So we'll kind of talk about that a little bit on today show, maybe look ahead a little bit on Profar too, to twenty twenty five, now that there's been some more projections out there that are kind of Braves focused from fanagrounts of their places, and then also a little bit of not only news, but there's some reported interest in a couple of pictures that we'll talk about at the end of the podcast. But I mean, Scott number one, is there anything that you'd like to add to what you already said of a JERKSI Profar, Because I'm not weighed in. We don't have to have Brad ways in segment. I mean we can if you want to. But anything that you that you still left on the cuding room floor the other night that you want to add about what was a three year, forty two million dollars deal for Jerks Profar.

00:03:34
Speaker 2: You know, no groundbreaking changes from my reaction the other night. I still really like the deal. The money is really reasonable. The more I have thought about what free agents have gone for, not just this winter but in past winners, it's a very reasonable deal for the money. And as we outlined on the show, of course there's risk with Profar. He is very much at this point kind of a one year wonder, which is weird considering he's been around for a decade. But I really like the move. I think he fits really well with this team. But of course the whole world has been waiting counting down the seconds for Brad Rowland's official Jerks and Profar take on the podcast, So I will hand over the microphone to you.

00:04:16
Speaker 1: I joked or not even joked with you on Twitter earlier today that I think one person it's my mom, cares about my opinion about dugs and profile. Everybody else's covered. We're all set on the podcast. But since you asked, I also like it. It was covered by you guys. I won't rehash all of it. I am a believer in the swing changes that you guys talked about on the show. I would be a lot more skeptical as I think, honestly all three of you were if if they were not accompanied, if this breakout did not happen with a reason behind it, like the underline data we'll talk about later on in the podcast. Even more is really strong, like there's reason to believe that he's a different player now, which makes me like it even more because I am generally a sample sized person like I like to lean on sample and with Profar the sample of him being not but just okay is pretty big versus last year he was legitimately awesome, So that's a little bit scary, But because there was real reason for it, I buy into it more. The Braves needed someone with actual on base skill. It's something we talked about a little bit, not as much this winter because there's been nothing else going on, but the Braves have a lie up that it's definitely power heavy, and I do believe in power. I think Alex believes in power. But it does help to have someone on the team that's like an on base guy. I think we thought it a lot last year when Ronnie was out, because Ronnie is of course a great on base guy and everything else that he does, but they had some on base problems a year ago, a lot of guys who were heavy power and Profar even before this breakout, has always been a very patient hitter. He walks a lot, does break out a lot like I think that's a good thing to have in the lineup. And the last thing I would say is that it seems to be a great vibes guy, like by all accounts, I sent some texts people that I've known that have covered him in the past. Everyone seems to love drugs and Profar, clubhouse stuff, everything that's been reported. He talked to the media on Zoom in Atlanta. They all seem to really like it. He wants to be in Atlanta very clearly. There's the history there that he guy talks about with Currasal, Andrew Jones, all that stuff. You know, it's one of those things that's on the margins. Will never be able to know how much that matters, but it matters a little. I think it's good that you like that. Obviously he's well respected, a veteran guy, but a guy with energy that people seem to like. And you mentioned the price by the way, I want to just make one point on that. I think it's almost been not by you guys covered it well, but in some of the reactions I've seen, it's important to note. I think that he he doesn't actually have to be the guy he was last year for this to be a good signing. Now, what I mean by that is, obviously he can't be the guy he was two years ago when he was quite bad like that, that wouldn't work. But he has multiple times before last year had seasons where he was worth well above fourteen million dollars for example, I think it was like twenty twenty two or three whatever his last pretty good year was. He was like a nineteen our player while not having the power he had had last year. For instance. I think if he's just a quote unquote just a two win core outfielder that won't blow anybody away. But that's worth what they've paid him, which really makes it a very very reasonable investment if they have paid what his numbers last year quote unquote should be getting paid, Like if they had paid for that production, it'd be a lot scarier. And by the way, he'd be making thirty million a year this year. And I'm not exaggerating he was that good last year, but you're getting him for fourteen million dollars. Like I think that there's a lot of room between where he was last year and a reasonable projection for him, and anywhere in that anywhere in that range is acceptable or better. Like he can he can regress twenty percent from last year and be well worth what they've paid him. So like that that gives me some comf some cold comfort, because we've all litigated the money stuff in the last couple of weeks. Steven's been granted about it, which I've definitely appreciated about the lacery tax stuff. But having a guy that, like the Brits do have some sort of money concerned, like they have some sort of line in this sand, they'll talk about even more later on, and I had a guy that makes this little relatively speaking, who's a good player? Like overall, Scott, I mean, I'm pretty excited. I would. I found myself nodding along with you guys the entire podcast, So not so much more to add, but that was my little checklist of things I want to make sure that I said out loud.

00:08:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was sitting here thinking of all the outfielders so far to move this offseason, I Takeuan Soto out because that was never happening.

00:08:32
Speaker 1: He's He's the outletter for sure.

00:08:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know Anthony Santander, his batted ball stuff is really not very impressive. He is routinely outperformed over the years, and maybe that's just who he is. There are players who outperform what their expected metrics are, but other players Michael Confordo signed a one year deal with LA I would have been happy with that deal. Yeah, little risk for one year. He's Cornfordo has been a player for a long time, and there have been a few other outfielders too who have moved.

00:09:04
Speaker 1: But no profar.

00:09:05
Speaker 2: I think pretty early on you and I and really the whole show identified him as someone we were interested in and yes, the Braves are very clearly buying that. Last year was a sign of things to come. As you said, even if Profar comes down twenty twenty five percent, that is still more than good enough to be somewhere in the Braves lineup next year. And I think his fans and his podcasters we just kind of have to recalibrate our minds because you mentioned twelve million dollars this year for Profar, fifteen million the next two. That's an average of fourteen million. Alex Cobb, who barely pitched last season recovering I believe from surgery, got fifteen million dollars.

00:09:48
Speaker 1: Forty one year old Charlie Morton. I mean I was going there. If you didn't go there, that's my guy.

00:09:53
Speaker 2: But you got fifteen million dollars. I mean that's yeah, that's it is not your older brothers MLBN more where a guy signing for, you know, twelve million and then fifteen million. It's really I mean, that's kind of a cost of doing business quite honestly. There. I mean aj Minter, good reliever coming off hip surgery, just got eleven million dollars guaranteed for this upcoming season. So for a million dollars more, you can get a legitimate silver slugger from last year, an All Star, one of the better hitters in all of baseball. It's just it's a worthwhile gamble in my opinion. Yes, there is a chance that profile is not nearly as good as last season, but if he's anywhere close, this is going to look really good. And I just kind of have a feeling that maybe six months from now, the rest of the league is looking around saying, man, how do the Braves get Profar for three years and a really reasonable dollar amount when basically everybody else has had to overpay if they want to be involved in free agency.

00:10:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, gms everywhere are doing that. They did it again, Dance with the Braves, Like, how do they always keep doing this? They they can't gick gigging away with Scott is what they. Hopefully we'll be saying from a Brace perspective in a few months. There's more to get to on Proflar, and we'll spend another segment or longer on him in a second when it comes to Alex and what he said about him plus his projections, et cetera, plus more later on the podcast. First, though, working more partners from foul Territory.

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00:11:22
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00:12:16
Speaker 1: All right, Scott, Alex had some interesting comments, which you guys referenced a few of them because he was again he was actively talking to the media while you were recording, which was kind of funny. We didn't know what it was going to be, so we couldn't time that any better. But the one that got the most attention, I think was the following Alex said, and I'm quoting him directly here, Alex said, and I quote the profile was the second best bat on the free agency market end quote, behind one soda. And you know that was taken with some interesting reactions, as you might imagine. I get it. He was not the biggest name. He didn't get the biggest contract. What I will pass off to you and then I'll let you react to this, is that I looked it up. He quite literally did have the second best season a year ago of any free agent bat by WRC plus by all the overall offensive impact metrics offense only. Which he did say hitter. He didn't say he said bat, he didn't say player or whatever. But what he said was true if you look at it from Blastier's point of view. But what did you make it that? Because it definitely got some some national traction. Even I think it's factual.

00:13:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, the facts say that Profar was the second best hitter available this offseason. And again, we won't do ourt. We're not going to repeat it for the ninth time in two shows that it is a bit of a one year mirage at this point, but there's all the underlying data to suggest that it was very real for Profar last year. He changed his swing. If folks missed that, Profar really adjusted his swing last season as well, more of a pronounced leg kick, more vertical in the batter's box. So there's there's reasons to believe. And I think you said it when you were giving your take on the deal, if it was just one of those years. And funny enough, Stephen mentioned old Brave's friend Chris Johnson, who carried like a four hundred batting average on balls in play one year to hit like what he hit, like three point fifty or something crazy, it was, Well, everybody knew that was not sustainable. And again we're not guaranteeing anything with Profar, but there's enough data behind this breakout at age thirty one last season where it's not hard to see why a GM and Alex Enthopolis in a front office that has been really enamored with players who stack cast gods, if you will, guys who look good on stackcast pages for how hard they hit, the baseball exit velocity barrels, all of those kind of new age of stats. It's not hard to see why this team very quickly came to be enamored with Profar and the upside of what he can do. Yeah, that's one of the reasons why we highlighted him early in the winter. Like I thought, we were not like saying that the Brace were going to definitely do this, but his profile made sense with what Alex tends to like, the underlying data, stackcast stuff, all of that. Look what I'd say that he's definitely the second best hitter on the market this winter. No, but he could be very easily.

00:15:12
Speaker 1: Look he's not. He's not one Soto, to be very clear. But I think he finished like fifteenth in MLB last year a WRC plus Like that's a that's a ridiculous profile, like he was. He was a Silver Slogger winner for a reason. He didn't even thake that that was the He was the earned winner of that award. And you know it's one year. But there you go. Other things that Alex said that I want to get your read on here, Uh, this is not what about Profar, But Alex was very effusive in Compleman and Jared Kelnick's defense on his call. It was mostly about profile obviously, but you know, got into as you might imagine what the plan is because you know, rise me out for a while, it means Kellen's gonna play or questions Mike Celnick. He actually said that he thinks Kelvin could be a gold glove guy in right field, which is aggressive, I would say, but you know, to each their own on Alex obviously he's insteadive, I stuck up his own player, so like there's a little bit of a screwy it has to be placed on that. But he also on the on the defensive front, he referred to Profar as quote solid in left field. That's probably an overstatement at least in my mind, as to what Profar has been in left field. Yeah, but I wonder if you think that he could he could actually be sold like is he hoy Hilaire? I guess is a question I'll ask you defensively, because Alex seemed the way that he was framing it was like, look, he didn't say it exactly this, but we're not worried about his defense. Was the was the implication from all the comments that Alex said, which I am okay with, but I wonder what you think.

00:16:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was curious. I did some research into this from Padres fans with Profar and defensively, and it's funny when when I was hearing and reading things about Profar's defense, it kind of reminded me of Eddie Rosario a bit, where he would make like these really impressive plays like diving catches or or on a dead sprint going back to the wall and reach up and snag the baseball, like really impressive stuff, and then he would also follow it up with a clunker where it would be like a relatively straightforward dive on a ball and he would just completely whiff on it or lose a ball or not take a good route and what should have been a routine play ends up being a single or a double. So you know, I do believe Alex in the sense with Profar that they probably do feel that maybe he can be better out there. Once upon a time he was a very well regarded infielder as coming up as a prospect and even into his early days of his big league career, so it's not like he's always been this unathletic butcher in the field, So maybe the Braves feel like he can do more there. I think his initial jump and initial reads great out really poorly. That's actually something that rond Racunya Junior has also dealt with in his career. Once Ronald gets go, he can fly, but he doesn't always get the best break on the ball, and that sounds like it's a similar issue for Profar. So hopefully they can work with him in the spring, maybe change up a few things that he's been doing and get more out of them, because it's clear that Profar was signed for his bat, but they could use better to events and left field than what maybe he gave the Padres last year.

00:18:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's really played a no He came up as an infielder primarily, he's played almost no infield the last like three or four seasons. He's been an outfielder and in a little bit of first base actually, which could be utility somewhere down the line in the future. But yeah, I'm with you. This is not my original take, but if people pointed this out to me, Profiles played left field basically in some pretty terrible, brutal parks to play left field him, Oakland, Huge Park, San Diego, and Colorado are all like really difficult places to play outfield. I don't know. I'm not saying that's like gospel as to what's happened with Profar. I think that he probably isn't very good based on what we've seen so far, but that's something I was like, Okay, that makes some sense that like maybe he's a little better if he would have been a more normal position, you know, leftfield truest is interesting, like it's like one of those parks that's actually reversed for a lot of people, like, well, right's actually easier to play than left in people's minds in some respects. But they've already said Alex has said, if case anybody missed this, that he's playing left. So I think he'll be I think he'll be okay. But I was interested by those comments. And also the Kellen stuff was more funny than anything else. And being goal being and being goal Glover is kind of amusing to be. But he's a good defender. I mean he's not he's not a goal clever, I don't think, but he's a good defender.

00:19:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think Kelnick, in a perfect world, this season performs well until Akunya comes back healthy, and then he's in that fourth outfielder role for the team. I would guess. I mean, we don't know this, nobody knows this. I would imagine that maybe Alex has floated Kelnick's name out there in trades a little bit, probably maybe to add a reliever or a starter in be very interesting to know what the other teams around baseball think of Kelnick. This before he was basically relegated to fourth outfielder duties, this felt like a really important year for his career, maybe kind of like make or break even because he's been around the block a while at this point. But you know, if you could I had this with Stephen the other night. I'm not actively trying to get rid of Jared Kelnick by any means, because all it takes is one injury to those outfielders and you're suddenly scrambling like you were last season. But if there's value in Kelnick, and maybe you could use him to swing a trade for a legitimate starting pitcher or an eighth inning guy instead of having to go out and free agency. Then it's like, Okay, you can find a fourth outfielder to handle it. You can play Brian de la Cruz in right field for a month until Ronald comes back, or sign somebody else off the veteran scrap heap. So yeah, curious to see maybe four weeks from now, if Jared kel Nick is with the Braves in Florida or if he's ultimately moved in a deal.

00:21:05
Speaker 1: Right, and this isn't a spot where he does have a bigger role on paper than a lot of fourth outfillders do because of Ronnie, because Rynie's not gonna be back for opening Day. Also, there's the potential that Rynie might need a DH every once in a while, ye like, not play right field every single day, and that means you need your fourth outfielder to play. He might get an injury. If you get an injury, at some point, someone's gonna get hurt, right, and Kelnic's the back of it all three spots at this moment, which is, you know, there's extra utility in the fact that he can play center. He's not great in the center because he can fake it there. It's fine, So there's more there. Also, I know that the Braves paid a lot to get him in terms of like costs in the moment and capital, but he doesn't. He makes no money. He's making no money, So that's potentially appealing for another team as well in a trade to your point, but also for the Braves having mc him is a fourth outfielder. We've also talked about the lack of depth of Braves have. Actually having a pretty good fourth outfil is not a bad thing to have if you're the Braves, especially with again with Ronnie banged up, with Profar defensively a question mark. Harris has some injuries, not anything crazy, but he's had some injuries. He's not be the most durrible guy in the world so far in his career. So having some insurance there is appealing.

00:22:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, and elsewhere too, man Like say that Marcelo Zuna rolls an ankle and needs to miss some time, Well, then presumably you would probably have Ronald DH and you would have Kelnick play right field, or you would have Profar DH and.

00:22:32
Speaker 1: Combination of Yeah, combination of profile and Ronnie probably dhing every other day or whatever. Yeah.

00:22:36
Speaker 2: Yes, And you know, I would be surprised if this year Kelnick puts it all together and is suddenly so great that the Braves can't fathom a lineup without him in it. But I do think there's a chance that he is better than what he showed on the whole last season. And again I said it a little while ago, but very curious to know. One, if Kelnick is with the Braves in a month and two without having a crystal ball, just how many games is he going to play next season? Because it's not just the outfield, but as we said at DH, even a first base injury might prompt something weird where Profar moves to first, or they have ozoona play first and then they need a DH. There's more. It's not like he's an exclusive shortstop, and if something doesn't happen a shortstop, there's no other way for him to get in there. I want to go back to Profar with one thing from Alex that looks into another conversation we can have about this coming.

00:23:31
Speaker 1: Season with him. So Alex, and this is another direct quote Alex said quote. We believe that what he did last year is who he is going forward. That's very high praise. I don't think so we definitely agree on that it's very high praise. I would imagine if you went a step further with Alex he might catch that a little bit. But that is what he said. That's a direct quote, and we talked about it a little bit already. But his stack cast numbers last year were great, and it was not the jump was not without merit. In fact, if anything, he didn't even outperform as numbers, like some guys unperform the numbers. And you know, in a lot of seasons or outlier seasons or whatever on the braids in recent years, like you know, guys have career seasons, then they come back down to earth a little bit. It's there's a very normal bit of variance there. But there's really nothing under the hood from last year that says it's a fluke, right, And that's probably what Alex is saying to some degree. But I do want to look ahead to Profar's twenty twenty five projections because they're out there a little bit now. Fangrafts has this depth dart projection that's a combination of zips which our friend Dans and Vorski runs Dance have been a commentary at Battery Power for a long time. Great great guy. I love Dan and also Steamer, two of the more prominent projective systems. They're kind of molded into one. They do a great job with fangrafts, refan graphs, et cetera. Profar's projection right now is a slash line of two sixty three point fifty four oh eight with seventeen home runs and a one thirteen doucity plus. Now that's considerably worse than he was last year, which, by the way, makes sense because if you go to those those projectisms use history a lot more than stack cast numbers. They're looking at the guy's profile. Uh, what I already said earlier, I'll say it again. Now. If he just if he quote unquote just does exactly this, it's a good contract. I firmly believe that. And I also think that he's I don't I don't, I don't want to use the word probably. I think that he's probably better than this if you believe last year is real. So that combination is very interesting. I wonder what you think, because what's chuck out to me was was was that? But also he has the second highest projected on base percentage on the roster, behind only Ronald Acuna. So that's not a small thing even if I, you know, I don't care about that an average, but he's a high walk guy. The power is what it is. But that stuck out to me right away is like, hey, getting on base, be high in the order, all those things.

00:26:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you know. One thirteen WRC plus And just a quick refresher in case listeners are not familiar. WRC plus is effectively a better version of OPS, and you'll hear all of us you prefer to it. It's basically a weighted version of OPS, where a player who plays in course field is obviously going to have advantages compared to a player who plays in a cavernous ballpark where it's cold at night. YEP, one hundred is league average. So last year profar was one forty. That was like superstar level, Like that's what Austin Riley and Marcelo Zoona do most seasons.

00:26:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again that was fifteenth best in all of Major League baseball. Last year was one forty, which where he was.

00:26:44
Speaker 2: So with that said, one thirteen would be a significant drop off. The fact you mentioned that the on base continues to be a high projection is encouraging to me because that is something this team desperately needs. I love home runs as much as anybody, but we've seen when this team goes cold offensively. What is the common theme? They're not hitting homers? And I think in the postseason as well, having guys get on base and put pressure on opposing pitching staffs and try to get the pitcher out of the game earlier instead of just a bunch of guys going up there and trying to hit four hundred and twenty foot homers, Which is great, don't get me wrong, but I think we were all in favor of infusing some on base into this lineup. Guy Profar, I think his career strikeout rate is like fifteen percent sixteen percent. It's always been low, and it stayed low even last year. It wasn't like Profar just sold out and started swinging for the moon on every single pitch and saw a strikeout rate double. So I'm encouraged by that. You know, it makes sense that the projection models are in the one fifteen ish area. I think if he gives the Braves anything better than one thirteen. I mean, I don't want to speak for you. I would take that all long. Yes, and you know, anything else would be gravy. And then of course, defensively, you just hope that he's not killing you in left field. Man. If we have seen the last few years, the Braves are never shy of making defensive substitutions very late in ballgames when they're ahead. That could be another way, of course, for Kelnick or Eli White or whoever, to get out there to kind of protect yourself a little bit from some of Profar's shortcomings. Yeah, and I guess that that might happen, especially once Ronnie's back and they have some more flexibility for sure lay in games. But yeah, I mean, overall, I think it's a reasonable projection based on what we've seen in the history and last year. I might even be a touch higher because I tend to value the stock gast stuff more than that I think these projections are looking at.

00:28:46
Speaker 1: But I also do also value sample size. So what I wanted to get across was like, hey, I wouldn't project him to be as good as last year. That shouldn't be a hot take. It's funny. I don't know, I do I don't have credits the right word, you know, coming off of two years ago when the Braves had this absurd offensive season. We were doing a podcast on another network at that point in time, but we had a podcast together and we were kind of saying, hey, guys, they're probably not going to be as good on offense to twenty twenty four as they weren't twenty twenty three as a team and as a bunch of individual players, not because anybody's bad, but because everybody hit. In twenty twenty three, Ronnie was basically gone on a baseball field. You know, Med also had the best gets season of his career, et cetera. C It's like, guys, Matt Olsen is probably gonna regress, which is what happened obviously, and he went down further than we want him to all those things now as a team, and this is something we'll say for later on, probably in February, but there probably for some positive progression to the meme based on how badly last season went, injuries, all that stuff. I think with Profar I would project some regression probably from last year because he was so so so good that he probably comes down. But I don't know if he doesn't come down to like the one twenty five range like that, that's a really good player. Oh yeah, you and I agree one hundred percent. If if I could just say sign a piece of paper right now and say you get the Steamer depth chart, projection, zips projection on jokesp profar and it's this and it's this lash line. You know, seven sixty ops Epsteen home runs won't do. I would take it. Sign me up. That's a big upgrade on what Jerry Knook was last year. That's a good player. Is it a grand slam of a contract if he does that? No, but it's a double of a contract. It's a good contract, and obviously there is plenty of room above that that. I think everyone including Alex like they probably don't give him the contract if you don't believe he has upside beyond what this projection is.

00:30:40
Speaker 2: And hopefully you know you talked about the last two seasons. Twenty twenty three was a study in basically everything going right, and twenty twenty four was a study and basically everything going wrong. Yes, so you would think that the Braves would find some middle, some guys would really bounce back from from twenty twenty three, or rather twenty twenty four, and maybe they're not quite as good as like when two thirds of the lineup had career years in twenty twenty three. I don't think we can bank on that, But I think what I'm trying to say is is you should get some positive regression from the returners, and Jerks and Profar in a perfect world, is like the fifth best hitter on this team, maybe maybe maybe sixth, Oh yeah, maybe seventh. I mean, there's not a crazy world where Jerks and Profar has a good season and he is the sixth or seventh best hitter on this team behind Acunya, Riley, Olsen, Ozuna, Harris Albe's Murphy right like that, that's a legitimate outcome. And yes, oh my gosh, I mean, we'll do a lot of fun podcasts this summer if that's even close to being the case. So again, I think adding Profar at a reasonable contract there's some real upside baked in, and the Braves are not necessarily relying on Profar to come in and be the savior of this team, because if guys bounce back to their career norms, the entire team hasn't hurt again. This could be and should be a really good lineup that I think. It's why I've come to like the Profi deal even more. I think he's only going to help the players around him based on the things he does well.

00:32:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, and one more thing that I want to get in before we go to some pitching stuff and get away from Profar, because there's plenty more time talking about Profar. Obviously we will spend two episodes on him basically, but his twenty twenty two season in San Diego, which I referenced a little bit earlier in broad strokes, this projection at Fangrafts is actually a little bit better than he was in twenty twenty two, but it's roughly similar. And our friends at Fangrafts had him being quote unquote worth about nineteen million dollars that season, So I would project him even if he just hits this projection, he's a twenty million dollars player this year, making twelve million dollars. And you know, it's not all it's not that hardcore dollars and says doesn't have to be that way, but just one more way of getting up in you know, depend on your mindset. If you want to be that cold and calculating, like, Okay, twelve million dollars investment, he's worth twenty Obviously that's a return that you would like. And we're very high. I think in general, we're very high on the deal. I think it helps to all Look, we'll never lie to the listeners, the four of us, I promise you on that, we will tell you what we think. I think it helps obviously the enthusiasm be to when all four of us like the deal and we do. Like I have had plenty of moves with the Braves in our coverage lifetime, especially with you and I got Scott going back even further than Stephen and Sean that we haven't liked. And I've said as much on the podcast. I know you have as well. This is one where like we genuinely just like it, and that helps you.

00:33:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I mean I admitted it a while back. I think you would too. You know when they traded for Chris Sale a year ago, I mean you and I were, we were excited because we could see the vision, but we were also like, this guy hasn't pitched in like seven years, Like it was a much bigger gamble than this is yeah, and even though jahe Solaire podcast. You know, the the mid season trade, I think we were excited and we could see the vision with the bat, but we were also very candid and like, this guy's been a DH for two years. They're taking a big gamble by putting him out there. And what happened, but like literally every night there was some adventure in the outfield. He got hurt too at a hamstring poll made a miss time. Like you know, so we do we try to keep it real. I think to put a bow on Profar at least for tonight. I think all four of us are excited about the move. I think we all acknowledge that there is some risk with this. But again, man, even if Profar comes down a bit, it's still just it makes sense for the team. It's a fair contract. He's really highly regarded behind the scenes. Robert Murray, who broke the deal, was on his podcast. I wanted to mention this. Robert Murray said on his podcast that Profar is one of like the most beloved clubhouse guys in the league. That's not a small thing. He knows some of the players on the roster already. So again, all good things. I think we're cautiously optimistic that Profar can be close to the guy he was last season as an All Star, and hey, if he wants to come even close to the player he was last year, then look out because this lineup could be really, really good once again. All right, Scott, let's pivot to a little bit of pitching stuff at the end of the podcast, because there was a little bit I won't call it news, there was some reporting right our pre Mark Bowman reported I believe it was on Friday, maybe Saturday, one of those two Friday or Saturday.

00:35:31
Speaker 1: The Braves have some interest in Ryan Stanek. So, Ryan Stay is a thirty three year old reliever. He's been around for a while. I've seen him pitch many times. He had the kind of a rough r last year, but purples were pretty good, just a very you know, one of those kind of I mean this in a nice way, run of the mill, but like, pretty good reliever who's been around for a long time. Is that is that a fair description of what you would say? And Ryan Staneck, He's not a Joe, He's not jo Jomenez. He's not going to dominate like that, but he would help the bullpen would be what I would frame with this, it's good death. He's a veteran guy. I don't I don't know what the price would be. He throws hard and does miss bats, which the RIfS tend to like. And that's kind of all we know right now. There's not been numbers thrown around. It's but you know, when Boba here's something gets out there, it's like, all right, this is worth definitely talking about for a second. If they sign them, we'll do a deep dive. Of course, I'm Ryan Stantick, but you know, it's all comes off the price. But I think he would be a very solid addition to the bullpen. Would be my broad in advanced framing of a potential Deilther.

00:36:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, relievers, they're they're a hard group to project, Yes they are. There's a handful of great ones who are great every single year, and then everybody else you're just kind of hoping that they have a good year, and frankly, sometimes it comes down to just a couple of appearances and if the ball bats is one way, their end of season stats are great, and if they get absolutely blown up for seven runs in a game, it takes weeks and months to recover your stats from that from that one blow up. Stannik is interesting. He's been around. I know Mets fans liked him quite a bit. You know, he threw big innings for them in the playoffs, and you're right, he would add velocity. Stannik has always had a bit of a contact and walk problem. But if and this is a big if, but if he can harness his command, maybe tweak a mechanic throw strikes more consistently with a very very very hard fastball, he can and will be effective. So I know Bowman mentioned the Cubs are interested. The Cubs just traded for a closer tonight. Actually, so the Cubs are presumably not interested, but sure bind Stanik for a couple million dollars. Maybe some incentives in there, especially if it means then that they can go add a good starting pitcher with the money that they have. I think, if I had to pick, I would rather spend money on a good starting pitcher and just take a couple of flyers on a Stannic type of arm and then it compared to the other way, where you maybe unload a good chunk of your money on a reliever and then just pray that you can find a diamond in the rough for the pitching staff.

00:38:05
Speaker 1: I think we're aligned there. I already, as we talked about I think on the previous show, I already kind of leaned towards Starter in general as the place I'd like to have them spend their remaining funds, if they are remaining funds. But yeah, Ryan Fannick for a few million bucks would be totally fine. It would help the bullpen good depth. A guy that's like trustworthy enough, like not gonna not safe. I never use the word safe on believers basically because no one is, but that'd be fine with me. He's a solid guy. The perfect example. Remember Nick Anderson a couple of seasons ago, signed for nothing.

00:38:40
Speaker 2: Dude was awesome. He was like the bravest eighth inning guy for the entire first half of the season, and then he was and then yeah, and then he got blown out. He had a shoulder issue and you never heard Nick Anderson's name again. So that's kind of Bullpen's one on one. Guys are good, then they're not. Guys get hurt, Guys come out of nowhere to be awesome. But you know, one quick node here that we wanted to talk about the money. So the other day there was a report that Mark Bowman believed the Braves had about thirty three million dollars to spend minus twelve million from what Profar is making this season, so roughly twenty one million dollars, give or take. And we also know that presumably Alex wants to hold on to some cash to be able to make mid season moves.

00:39:23
Speaker 1: He always does.

00:39:24
Speaker 2: Now you can also make an argument though, that if say that Alex has thirty million dollars in total, maybe ideally he would have ten million of that mid season. But if you're able to make a move or two this offseason using some of that money, call it twenty five million instead of twenty and then you're less likely to have to go out at the trade deadline and have to overpay for somebody. That's obviously something that one we don't know for certain, but two conventional wisdom would say to try to take care of your team today and then adjusted the deadline, rather than being non active and hoping that everything works and then knowing you can have a little more money mid season, I think I'd rather throw the money at a free agent or a trade target. Today and have them for all year instead of just two months.

00:40:10
Speaker 1: I didn't agree with you. Also, I think Bubman would acknowledge this, Like he never said that they were going to spend thirty three million dollars. He heard that that was the number that Alex might be allowed to spend up to. You know, it's not as clean as people might think that it is, where like he's going to spend up to the number exactly like that. No, it's not always like that too. So got to be available. Something has to be available to get the money to It could be a trade too, something that people always forget about Alex, like he tends to like trades, Like we talked about sale or that you brought up he brought you know, there's been Iglasius was a trade that was a big contract that they added, but it was a trade. So it could just be a guy they trade for or whatever. They are doing their darnedness to spend it as if they were comfortable with Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes and all, and maybe they are. Maybe that's not spend but I think they're just doing what they' supped to do this time of year and saying we're okay here, but yeah, I think we agree. I think you and I especially agree on starter being I would like to see him side of the starter still or trade for a starter or at a starter of some kind that it's better than what they have now. And that's not a shot anybody else that they have with their rotation. We've done a bit of a million times, but you need more than five six guys, you just do, so I'm in on that. Speaking of, before we get out of here, interesting report, the Braves apparently attended a workout for future Hall of Fame right hander Max Scherzer. Max Scherzer is forty well forty right now. He'll be forty one in July. Still unsigned clearly does not have a huge market, or he wouldn't be doing a workout in January. Keep that in mind. He obviously like guys like so, I would say his contemporaries Justin Erlander and our guy Charlie Morton have already signed. So I think pretty clearly those guys had more markets than Schuser did if you read between the lines, is that reasonable to say? I think it probably?

00:41:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fair.

00:42:01
Speaker 1: The Braves like an old guy be one. It'd be a one year deal, like, for instance, we didn't mention this guys in the relief section, but like old pal Kenley Jansen still available, He's like gonna be forty soon. Curous out connection drugson profar just saying David Robertson an old guy anyway. Max Schurz is an old guy, but in a different way than what we talked about last year with Chris Sale, where you and I were all winter long saying guys, look, Chris Sale has never not been good. He's always been good. It's just if he's been healthy. I'm not saying Max is gonna be Chris Sale because Max schurs Are is older than Chris Sale was. It's probably not gonna happen like that. But Max Scherzer has always been good Scott even last year he made nine starts because he couldn't stand on the mound because he's forty years old. But when he pitched, he was good. So I am not like over the moon about signing Max Scherzer or even considering signing Max Scherzer, but for the right price, if it's Max Schuerzer or nobody, I would certainly be interested in Mac Sureser like I wouldn't give him fifteen million dollars. I wouldn't. I wouldn't pay him the try. I wouldn't pay him the trolley Morton price. Just just I'm just trying to make an example. They won't do that. They won't do that either. But if it's a reasonable cost, and you can admit what that actual number is. But he's available in January, it would almost certainly be a one year deal, which is no risk whatsoever, really just money. So I'm intrigued. I'm not like dancing in the streets of the idea of signing Matureser. But I wouldn't. I wouldn't mind it for another arm. What'sdom upside? I like it more than you do. I know, I like it more than you, which is fine. Yeah, and again I'm not excited about it either. I'm saying, if they signed my sures. Okay, here it is guy, Here, here's the prompt. We'll just cut right to the chase. We wake up tomorrow morning. It's Monday morning, January twenty seventh, and you wake up in Arizona to the news that the Braves have signed Max Scherzer for one year and six million dollars. What is your reaction, M six million.

00:43:58
Speaker 2: M okay, So I have an answer to that, but I'm gonna.

00:44:02
Speaker 1: Sidetrack go ahead. That's fine.

00:44:04
Speaker 2: I am okay with signing Max Scherzer in a MOB. I don't want to sign Max Scherzer tomorrow. I don't want to sign Max Suser this week. I think there are still far better options in free agency and in trade.

00:44:19
Speaker 1: We agree. We agree on that, to be very clear. We agree on that there are better options than absolutely.

00:44:24
Speaker 2: So, you know, Jack Flaherty is like the only real we'll call it needle moving starting pitcher. I don't think the Braves are signing Jack Flaherty. No, maybe if he wants to take a one year deal then sure. But yeah, then it's Nick Pavetta who has a qualifying offer, which because I like Nick, like Nick Pavetta as a fourth or fifth starter, sign me up. But giving up multiple picks and international free agent money, that's that's a tough pill to swallow. Andrew Heeney is pretty interesting. He's like a durable lefty make twenty eight starts. Not a World Series Game one starter by any means, but he's been quite good.

00:45:08
Speaker 1: He's the guy, He's the guy I want to. Of the free agents, he's been the guy that I've been looking at kind of the whole time as like my like other than Evaldi when he went off the board. We talked about him a lot at the beginning of the process, but since then it's been he's been the kind of like subtle circle for me of like, if they're gonna sign a free agent, not trade sign, he would be the one I would probably circle. And then of course they're sure. There's sort of Montgomery too, who's not a free agent, but that's been out there. It's not there a lot.

00:45:36
Speaker 2: There's Dylan sees rumors all over the place. Yeah, he's a one year guy. You mentioned Jordan Montgomery. I still feel it in my bones. I think Steven does too.

00:45:47
Speaker 1: It's just right there in front of us. It's like it makes it makes so much sense to everybody involved. Arizona doesn't want him anymore. He doesn't want to be there because they like dadmouth him on the way out the door. The owner was like crapping on him this winter, which is crazy, and he presumable they pay him of a salary to get him off the roster. Right, It's just kind of right there for you. It's a short deal, but yeah, we'll see.

00:46:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, yes, we all hope the Braves at a starting pitcher. I would sincerely hope that they are aiming higher than Max Scherzer. He might still have a little something in the tank. He was constantly injured last year, but you said he was still decently enough, decently effective whenever he was on the map last season. But yeah, like if Andrew Heeney's price is two years and thirty million bucks, so fifteen million a year, I would do that, you know, as a kind of a back end of the rotation, fifth starter to help bridge the gap and maybe you get a little better and he pitches more to like the third or fourth starter level. Sure, but yeah, Sureser, unless it's like in a month and the Braves are zero for ten on better starting pitchers. I mean, I don't think I could be wrong, but it's been a weird market. But I don't think Surezer has eight offers waiting for him right now.

00:47:03
Speaker 1: He obviously doesn't, or he wouldn't. Again, not to bake this into the grad too, he wouldn't be doing a workout like this in late January if he had a big market, like guys don't do that. I'm sure he has an offer from somebody somewhere for whatever money it would be. You know, I'm sure Alex is like Max, if you want to sign for four million right now, we'll give it to you. Like one of those kind of thing. You know. I'm not saying, I'm not reporting that, but it's just like one of those things like maybe it's like wait for the price to go down or whatever. Also, if you're a Max Schurezer, this is a sidebar, but you're probably wanna sign with a contender, Like you're forty forty one years old. Yeah, you're not signing with Pittsburgh. I don't think it's probably one of like six teams that you might consider signing with. The Doctars don't need you, so probably cross them off realistically. So like, yeah, for as much as Braves fans are but frustrated this whole winter, the Braves are still on the top five teams and every projection that you will see about World Series potential this year. So if you're and you want to have one last ride with a contender that actually can use you, because the Braves do need more arms, Like it's not a bad place to lay your head. But yeah, I think we are in agreement. That wouldn't be exciting. And I think he might be the epitome of a guy that even honestly, maybe you don't sign until like March or April, like he might be one of those guys. It's like, you know what, guys, I'm gonna show him the sidelines, So Roger Clemens style, and I'm gonna sign in late May because I'm forty, because I'm forty forty one years old, and I'm Max Surezer. I'm going to the Hall of Fame. He's to sign somewhere like Ki can sign whereview once.

00:48:33
Speaker 2: Or wait weeks? Yeah, wait, a couple of weeks into spring training and a team will have lost one starting pitcher already and another one just came into the training room with the sore elbow, and suddenly Team X y Z and dear god, let's hope it's not the Braves after what we went through last year. But suddenly that team is in need of pitching help. So we will keep an eye on the shures er uh market. If you will go as you said a moment ago, going to a tryout is.

00:49:00
Speaker 1: Hardly and they attended to work out. It's not even like with the with right stand there is reported interest from a real person and Mark Bowman, well, sure is there's not even that. All all we know is that the Braves went to his workout, which they should just do. If you're if you're the Braves, you should go to that workout. He see isn't something you like. Sure, but there is no doubside at all, just wasting a couple of scouts day. Yeah, you do that. But just to be very clear, there is not even reported interest. It's just that the Braves went and saw him, and he does make some logical sense at a certain price point. But we'll stop on that.

00:49:35
Speaker 2: And one other picture. This will be very quick, but one other picture who you might have heard about. Brad hosted a workout as well late last week. Tyler Matzik trying to baby come on back, Yeah, come on back from basically what three lost years. It was reported by somebody that the Braves and maybe a dozen others were at Mattsick's workout a couple of days ago. Similarly, I mean, we all loved I don't know if there's anything left there, but if he's up for a minor league deal or a spring training invite, then absolutely bring him back.

00:50:09
Speaker 1: Yep.

00:50:09
Speaker 2: If if the old flame is there, then amazing. And if he just doesn't have a thing, you shake hands and say thank you again for everything. You know, go go try to catch on with a bad team who probably can use you more than we can.

00:50:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's that relationship that will never go away. I mean, they're not going to sign them for no reason, like you know, if they don't see anything there that they won't do it. But you know, when you had that history together, Look, he was he was quite bad last year with the Braves, let's just be honest about that, and then was hurt in twenty three. But uh, you know he's also had that the winding road of the careerbity side. So it's it's been highs, it's been really low lows out of the league, all that stuff.

00:50:46
Speaker 4: So yeah, I.

00:50:46
Speaker 1: Would expect the same thing. It's a different situation, of course, but the Braves would always go to a Tyler Matzic workout, I'm pretty sure, just to see and if there's anything there, you know, minor league deer or whatever, you know, maybe maybe he'll be on the ten Giles plan this year for the Braves, and they're just like, hey, come pitch for a while, and Gwinette, if we're seeing him in there, you'll have a chance with us. If not, like you said, shake Hanson goes upper ways.

00:51:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, so hopefully it went well for Tyler. I didn't see anything, and obviously it's been a few days, so it's not like he immediately signed with some team that made him an offer he couldn't refuse. But yeah, keep an eye on Tyler Matzik. If at some point in the next couple of weeks we get a notification that the Braves have signed him to some kind of non guaranteed deal, that would make total sense.

00:51:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, why not basically at that point, all right, Scott, we've done almost an hour because it's you an hour back in the saddle here late in January, and because we wanted to watch Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen play. It's it's late on the East coast, so we're recording this. That was a football football game, by the way, as we're recording this, that was a fun what's you're a Bill's fan? That was a lot of fun to watch. I wanted the Bills to win personally, but it is what it is. Anything else going on your life, Scott or if not, please share folks that might have just found the podcast where they can find you elsewhere beyond the show.

00:52:02
Speaker 2: That's right, A big thank you to everybody who checked out the show. Hopefully we have some new listeners as well from the jerks and profar Deal, so welcome aboard. As Brad said almost an hour ago, off the very top, we are a three sixty five podcast. No matter when the Braves make their next move, we will be here, hopefully a starter, hopefully reliever, and we will see what the future holds. But I am at Scott Coleman fifty five on socials if you want to follow there, and we will have plenty of more shows coming up in the week ahead.

00:52:32
Speaker 1: We will, indeed I am at BT Rowland across the board on social media and then also we can find the show at Hammer Territory on Twitter, on Facebook, Instagram, threads, et cetera. Also, please please please subscribe to the podcast anywhere you find your podcast. We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, Amazon Music, all this places. Plus we're on YouTube, so if you want to watch us, follow us there. And do us a favor. If you are a YouTube watcher, first, thank you again for watching us. If you want to help the podcast as well, please subscribe on audio tuo do double duty for us. Just support the podcast that way, just one click away on Apple, Spotify, etc. But we definitely appreciate it. Raisor reviews, all that fun stuff. Check out the entire Faul Territory Network podcasts as well. All right, for Scott, my name is Brad Rowland and we'll sign off right now. Thanks posting everybody, and we'll see you all next time.