328: 15 Transactions for Week 15

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa Jay Jake zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyese and the editor in chief at fandel and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and twenty eight of the Late Round Podcast, one of many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. If your fantasy teams escaped Week fourteen without an injury, then you just naturally gained value in your Fantasy football playoffs. There were tons of injuries this week, which means there are things to talk about on today's show. Before getting to those things, though, I want to remind you guys about FanDuel Santa Streak contest. All you have to do is finish in the top fifty percent of an eligible contest over on FanDuel to build your streak. If you do great, your streak continues. If you don't, your streak ends and you have to start a new streak the next day. At the end of the contest, you'll be rewarded based on the length of your longest streak, and the user with the longest streak out everyone will win the grand prize for more details was at FanDuel dot com or download the fandle app Today. Eligibility restrictions apply drop Josh Allen. So in Week fourteen, Josh Allen faced a very tough matchup against the Ravens. And I won't sit back and say that expectations were very high. I did talk about him as a sit on my matchup show last week, but it's not like people were ranking him as a high end QB one. But to be fair, he was started in a lot of leagues. He was started in thirty three percent of Yahoo leagues. He came through with ten point seven Fantasy points, nothing special. And the thing is we just watched him not do a whole lot in a tough matchup, and over the next two weeks he gets just as tough as matchups. Week fifteen features a game against Pittsburgh and the Steelers are allowing three point three fantasy points below expectation to opposing team quarterbacks this year, and then in Week sixteen they get New England. No team has been better at stopping quarterbacks than the New England Patriots, and both of those games are on the road. So to take a step back and say, could Josh Allen come through with a big performance. Yeah, he could, But after what he did against Baltimore this past week, are you going to feel good putting him in your starting lineup against the Steelers this week? Probably not. So if you hold on to them, but you don't start him, that means you're holding on to him just to face New England in Week sixteen. So to me, logically, Josh Allen can be dropped. Add AJ Brown. So I talked about AJ Brown on the show maybe a couple weeks ago, and he should be added, especially after what he did this past weekend. Since Ryan Tannehill took over this Titans offense in Week seven, only five teams have averaged more yards per drive and only the Ravens have scored touchdowns at a higher rate per drive. Ryan Tannehill has completely transformed this offense and that's allowed players that are not named Derrick Henry to be fantasy relevant. Since Tannehill's takeover, AJ Brown has averaged a twenty two percent target share in fourteen point four PPR points per game, and over the next two weeks he gets decent matchups against the Texans and Saints. Hold or add Ryan Fitzpatrick. So I liked Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week fourteen. He came through with a very mediocre performance. Now, to be fair, he did lose his top receiver, Devonte Parker in that game to a concussion. He didn't have very good options to throw to. But assuming Parker can get back for Week fifteen, I think that Fitzpatrick could continue to be a relevant quarterback streamer because the Dolphins get a plus matchup against the Giants this week, and then they finish off the fantasy football season with the game against Cincinnati. Those are two plus matchups for opposing quarterbacks. So even if Devonte Parker can't come back, I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick's an awful awful streamer. I just would have a lot more confidence if Parker were playing. Add DeAndre Washington. So Josh Jacobs ended up being a true game time decision on Sunday, and as we all know, he didn't play, so instead we saw DeAndre Washington. We saw a lot of DeAndre Washington. He played sixty three and a half percent of Oakland's offensive snaps and he had amazing market share numbers. He had sixty three point six percent of the team running back rushes in a twenty three percent target share. Those numbers are better than what Josh Jacobs typically sees. In fact, Josh Jacobs never had that high of a target shair in a single game this year. So if Josh Jacobs misses more time, DeAndre Washington should be in store for good fantasy production. Sell the New York Jets offense. Now, let's be honest. The Jets offense hasn't been unbelievable from a fantasy perspective over the last month and a half, but they haven't been awful. The thing is, though they faced the Jags, than the Dolphins, than it was the Giants, than Washington, then Oakland and then Cincinnati and then Miami this past weekend, their schedule has been unbelievably easy, and we know that they haven't been all that fantasy relevant despite that schedule. Now, over the next two weeks, they get the Ravens and the Steelers. Sam Darnold can absolutely be dropped, and it would be very, very difficult to start Robbie Anderson or Jamison Crowder, and the same kind of goes for Le'Veon Bell too. We know that there aren't many choices at the running back position. Drop Brandon Cooks. So the Rams have moved the ball pretty well over the last two weeks. But even with this, Brandon Cooks has four combined targets for twenty four receiving yards. And over the next two weeks, the Rams get a below average matchup against Dallas and then they get an awful matchup against San Francisco. So, similar to the Josh Allen logic, take a step back, ask yourself, are you ever going to play Brandon Cooks? Because you're likely not going to play Brandon Cooks this week after how he's been performing. And then if Cooks has a really big performance against Dallas, are you still going to be confident enough to play him against San Francisco? Probably not. That's why he can be dropped by Philip Lindsay. I've talked about this quite a bit on this show over the last month or two, but when Joe Flacco went down for the season and Brandon Allen stepped in as quarterback for the Broncos, things changed for this Broncos backfield. In eight games with Joe Flacco, both Royce Freeman and Philip Lindsay combined for a twenty six point four percent target share in that offense. When Allen took over, that number dropped to eleven and a half percent. That's a huge drop. But over the last two games with drew Lock, we've seen not only this Broncos offense be more competent, but Lindsay and Freeman have combined for a twenty one percent target share. Now, this hasn't led to huge target totals for fantasy purposes. Both backs have eleven combined targets over the last two games. That's not unbelievable. The thing is, though they've seen positive game scripts in those two games. When you're in a positive game script, you're not going to throw the ball as much. Drew Lock hasn't thrown the ball thirty or more times in a single game yet, because when a team is leading, they're running the ball more. And while that's not a bad thing for a running back, targets are more valuable than attempts at the position. So let's just put this another way. If Denver faces a negative game script, we should expect Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman to a degree to see more volume through the air. And over the next two weeks they get Kansas City in Detroit, they could very easily see a negative game script against Kansas City, and we know that Kansas City can't stop the run either and neither can Detroit, so they get two two plus matchups for run game purposes. And then on top of that, if they see a negative game script, we know that these running backs are going to be more involved as receivers. So I really like Philip Lindsay and to a degree, Royce Freeman over the next two weeks. Ad Patrick Laird. Over the last two weeks, Patrick Laird has led the Dolphins in backfield snaps. In Week thirteen, a snapshare was fifty nine point seven percent that led to a top twenty performance. It was eighty one point nine percent this past week and he scored twelve point six PPR points. The Dolphins. As I talked about earlier, get the Giants and Bengals over their next two games. Patrick Laird could very easily be fantasy relevant over these two contests. Drop Tyrell Williams. So Tyrell Williams started the season off pretty strong. He was averaging almost sixteen PPR points per game over the first four weeks of the season, and then he got hurt and since his return in Week eight, that number has been cut in half, and he's had just two top forty performances and his target share has been a pretty average sixteen percent over this time. And it's not like the Raiders have had these really tough matchups over and over again. He's seen easy matchups. He just hasn't come through and that's why he's a drop candidate. Add Chris Conley. So, DJ Chark was seen in a protective boot after the team's Week fourteen loss, and he also apparently left the locker room using a scooter. He's now week to week to day to day. That's a big deal for the passing attack because he's not only caught forty four point four percent of the team's passing touchdowns this year, but he has a twenty three percent target share across the season. So if DJ Shark doesn't go, Chris Conley should get more run or at the very least, he'll have a much higher target floor, and that could be big because over the final two weeks of the fantasy season, the Jags get the Raiders and the Falcons. Those are two good wide receiver matchups. Sell Tevin Coleman, So I think that you could hypothetically drop Tevin Coleman right now. But the reason I'm not saying to flat out drop him yet is because this San Francisco backfield is really unpredictable and it's not very easy to just find usable running backs. Although to be fair, Tevin Coleman isn't very usable. But for a second straight week, Coleman was out snapped, out produced, and outplayed by Raheem Mostert. Coleman had even bigger problems in Week fourteen two because Matt Breeder returned to action and Matt Brida played more snaps than Tevin Coleman. So as it stands, this is Raheem Mostert's backfield. But things can change so quickly. In this backfield. We know a lot of fantasy points can come from it, but we don't know who's going to score those points. I want Raheem Mostart over any of these backs right now, but things can change very quickly. So if you have space to hold Tevin Coleman, I think he's fine to just hold, but you can't trust him in Week fifteen, which is why he's a cell. But things can change in Week fifteen. Someone could get hurt, or maybe Tevin Coleman gets a little bit of revenge against his old team. So I would hold Tevin Coleman on my team and not use him, which is why he's a cell candidate add David and Joku. So it's going to take a lot to use David and Joku in Week fifteen. And the reason I say that is because he wasn't used all that much in his first game back from injury. He played thirty seven and a half percent of Cleveland snaps on Sunday, and he only ran nine routes according to Pro Football Focus. So if you're gonna have faith in starting David and Joku this week, you're gonna have to see reports that say he's going to get more run. That's absolutely necessary to have the confidence to play in Joku. But he is playing the Arizona Cardinals, and the Cardinals have been horrendous against tight ends all season long. So I do think that in Djoku's worth an ad early in the week because there might be a report that says he's going to play more in Week fifteen. Ad Brashad Perriman. So it's not sounding good for Mike Evans. He scored a touchdown on Sunday and as he was in the end zone. If you guys saw it, he was just holding his hamstring. You know something was wrong with his hamstring. And head coach Bruce Arians after the game said that he would be shocked if Evans played again this year. So that opens things up for Brashad Perriman to be the number two option at wide receiver for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Now, as long as Jamis Winston is healthy. He has a thumb injury right now, but as long as he's healthy, I do think Paraman could be a worthwhile sort of desperation play. The Buccaneers have a soft playoff schedule. They have matchups against the Lions and the Texans over the next two weeks, and when a justin for strengthen opponent, both of those teams are well above average matchups for opposing wide receivers ad Mitch Trubisky. Over the last five weeks, Mitch Trubisky ranks fifth in Fantasy points per game at the quarterback position. That's true, only Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Jamis Winston, and Josh Allen have averaged more Fantasy points per game than Mitch Trubisky. He's been a top ten quarterback in four of those five games. And best of all, the Bears are letting Mitch Trubisky be Mitch Trubisky. He's not being the game manager like we saw earlier in the season. He's being a little bit more dgaff He's taking more risks and as a result, he's averaged seven rushing attempts per game over his last three contests. That's resulted in twenty eight rushing yards per game in a pair of rushing touchdowns. Now, the matchup against Green Bay this week isn't ideal. I'm not gonna sell it as something that's great, but I do think that Trubisky's done enough in fantasy over the last month to warrn a start for those of you who are desperate at the position. Add to Detroit Lions defense, Hopefully you planned a head for your defensive matchup in the playoffs, but if you didn't, I don't think Detroit's the worst option in the world. They're playing at home, they're three and a half point favorites, and they're either playing against Jamis Winston with a messed up thumb, or they're playing against a backup quarterback and his Buccaneers offense won't have Mike Evans, but even if Winston does go, and even if Winston is his normal self, the Bucks are still a plus matchup. They've allowed defenses to score two point six more points per game than their season long averages. That's one of the higher marks in the league. The sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen Transactions column over on number fire dot com this week is to hold Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. I know it's been frustrating to have both of these players, especially Tyler Lockett, but keep in mind that the Seahawks have a really juicy matchup in Week sixteen against the Cardinals. I'm a little afraid of what their volume could look like this week against Carolina because we know that the Panthers are horrible against the run and the Seahawks would love nothing more than to give Chris Carson the ball thirty five times while Russell Wilson throws it eighteen times. But I'd expect a big outing from the passing attack in Week sixteen, So don't go dropping Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf. Don't get fully discouraged. They should be startable in Week sixteen. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll be back tomorrow with a ten Trends episode.