Week 16 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where Cynthia Freeland is getting tired of me talking about the greatest streak in sports eleven weeks long. I'm Greg ro keep going. I'm here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my great friend Cynthia Friedland, the smartest person at NFL Network and has to hear me talk about our little pick show where we picked three games. Little show it is, it is, and we appreciate everyone.

00:00:32
Speaker 2: This jacket, that is you're looking very stylish.

00:00:35
Speaker 1: Thank you, AKA, this is kind of like, Yes, we celebrated Christmas last weekend Rosenthal Christmas, and this was one of the gifts from my beautiful wife.

00:00:46
Speaker 2: Well obviously she's got great taste.

00:00:48
Speaker 1: So she really does. She really does, except for in husbands. But she actually told me to take off the ratty looking two lane sweatshirt that I was gonna wear today to represent you. I was going to just didn't look quite right. So I decided to get fancy and yes, eleven straight winning weeks on the Picks, and I went three and ohero last week, up to twenty nine and sixteen on the season. I'm never gonna top this season again, but I gotta say Cynthia. Yeah, this week was tough. I only had like one game that I just loved, and after that I was just like, Okay, like last week, I was feeling it. You you helped contribute, by the way to that re and oh record, because you talked me out of doing Cardinals plus nine and a half and they got smoked by the Texans and so they kept kept me undefeated. Why don't you want me to go first?

00:01:39
Speaker 2: You go first?

00:01:40
Speaker 1: Yeah? Okay, the one I really like?

00:01:43
Speaker 2: There's only one or how many deals that I love? Oh, the one you love?

00:01:45
Speaker 1: Okay, really only one, and it's the Chargers plus two and a half. And I've been just going with my gut of like picking winners in these games where it's plus three minus three. Not getting too cute. This feels like one where they're almost daring us, definitely to take the Chargers. But you know what I said that about last week one of them too, and it worked out fine, the Chargers being five and a half point hunderdogs. Remember we thought that was bait. I mean they won that games straight up? It did sometimes yep in football. Now this is what I don't know, if the analytical models can test I think sometimes in football there are certain teams that deep within their bones as a team, and it's crazy because it's like forty five players active on game days. They at the end of games or in key spots, they're like they almost want to lose. They will find ways to lose. Are they had that in their bones. I felt that watching Chargers Chiefs last week, that the Chiefs they were just going to find a way to lose that game, even if it didn't make sense. But on the flip side, I think the Chargers are one of those teams that there's just something greater than the some of their parts right now where they believe that they are going to find a way to win one of these games. And I think they're mentally and maybe even physically tougher than they opposition, certainly this week, and all they got to do is win the game. They don't even need to. They could lose by one and I would still cover this that they're plus two and a half. I feel great about this because I think the Cowboys will find a way to lose this game, and I think the Chargers will figure out a way to win it.

00:03:15
Speaker 2: I don't usually go much based on like gut. But when I looked at the fact that the Cowboys were favored, I just thought, I'm like, am I reading this wrong?

00:03:24
Speaker 1: Yeah?

00:03:25
Speaker 2: Like I thought, maybe I had lost my mind. I mean, it's possible I probably have lost my mind, But actually both things can be true. I've lost my mind and that can be weird. But I mean, I just was surprised that they were even favored.

00:03:36
Speaker 1: About what does your model have?

00:03:37
Speaker 2: My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.

00:03:39
Speaker 1: Oh, okay, good. So so I do have some real reasons too, and I really believe in it. If you are a fan of the Feed, you'll have checked out. On Thursday. This came out the New Power Players episode with a general manager vice or assistant general manager, Chad Alexander of the Chargers, who said, we want to bully. The other teams want to build a bully and I think you can kind of see that that the culture that they've built, they really are more physical. And then you think about the Cowboys side of things, probably no Quinn Williams and this game he's in the concussion protocol. Their offensive line has been really banged up upfront. The Chargers are running the ball pretty well, and they're getting after the pass rushers. So I actually think they're better upfront than people realize, and their biggest weakness on the offensive line, justin Herbert mitigates that, and I don't think it'll be as bad against the Cowboys again and against most teams.

00:04:28
Speaker 2: Especially without without Big Q if he doesn't play.

00:04:30
Speaker 1: In My hottest take here is the offensive line. Maybe they're figuring out just a little bit I watched last week. I know it's against the Chiefs, but they're not a great pass rush. But Jamari Sallier is their left tackle right now, and I think if they're playing the defense that like doesn't challenge them in the way that Spagnolo did with all these blitzes and everything. I think they can survive and let Herbo be Herbo, and you might. You might get to sit back and enjoy like a twelve point win for this game. Don't even worry about the spread like it's a two score. Yeah.

00:05:00
Speaker 2: No, I'm completely with you. I just for my first pick. Yes, I never see so I have a more conservative model. A lot of things you see NTV media models are often very like reactionary, like it'd be like one hundred percent ninety nine percent, like they'll be like these massive swings, like you should never if you're a good model, or you should never have something that goes from like a ninety nine point nine percent chance to the other team. That should happen once in like a million games. Not it shouldn't anyways, So I digress. My point is I rarely see anything over eighty percent. Rarely, like it almost never.

00:05:32
Speaker 1: Happens eighty percent, Like eighty percent the.

00:05:34
Speaker 2: Confidence cover, No eighty percent that a team will win, okay, Like I just rarely see it. Yeah, Usually it's like seventies is like something crazy, okay. Eighty percent in my model implies sixteen points woo okay, which is why fourteen points for Houston ooh, I love it is? Uh? Is is what? And I'm not no shade to the Raiders although they only manage seventy five yards of offense against the Eagles last week. I'm I'm looking at this opportunity here. The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the ASC South, which I AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing. I'm looking at this and not to kick a hornetstack kick a Raider while they're down, But.

00:06:16
Speaker 1: Why not you said, like, no offense to the Raiders, all offense to the Raiders, unless you've been listening to this show in which you've been cashing in picks week after week. Last week, one of my picks was Philly minus eleven and a half. It almost felt too easy against the Raiders. They won that game by thirty one. Yep. That's fantastic. Yeah.

00:06:34
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:06:35
Speaker 1: And you, by the way you hit your Texans pick last week, that was the one I was saying that you talked me out of. And I think it was an interesting moment for them because they've had such a tough schedule it they've now come together. We know their defense is good, the offense is definitely playing better. And it was the first time we've seen them as a heavy favorite, yep. And they kind of looked like a super Bowl team. And so this is another you know.

00:06:55
Speaker 2: I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense. I mean, it's to me, it's either the Broncos or the Texans. I know everyone's like excited about the Bills, but but for Josh Allen, I don't know what I'm.

00:07:08
Speaker 1: Looking plus, it's gonna be hard for them to win the division. They're going to need two Patriots losses.

00:07:13
Speaker 2: They're not going to win the division.

00:07:14
Speaker 1: They're they're very likely not to win the division. Geno Smith was at practice just as a piece of information. Game to care.

00:07:22
Speaker 2: I mean, no offense. Like again, I feel very mean because I like the I love their branding's awesome. I love the history of the Raiders.

00:07:28
Speaker 1: I love go to the branding. I love their I mean, I do think Gino is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett of course, but yeah, they were one of rite down here if you're looking at myself. I love it because once I only had one. Then I was like, okay, just write down some that I just kind of like. And I wrote down five of them. One of them was Houston, So you got that for us.

00:07:48
Speaker 2: But I ultimately have to memorialize that they have an eighty one percent chance to it.

00:07:51
Speaker 1: That's amazing eighty one the average fan. And I'm putting myself in that. I would think it's even higher, like you, but I I get what I mean.

00:08:01
Speaker 2: Conservative modeler would say, yes, that's why I'm telling you. Like, for example, you know the majority of my win totals end up being somewhere between fifty five and sixty. Okay, so to get eighty eighty one?

00:08:16
Speaker 1: Where is I'm putting you on the spot here, Yeah, all the numbers. Yeah, where is your Lions percentage of winning this week against the Steelers? It is they are favored by seven points.

00:08:29
Speaker 2: The Lions are Oh dang it, I hate this five fifth most confident.

00:08:35
Speaker 1: Okay, but like, what's the percentage? Do you?

00:08:37
Speaker 2: Fifty seven percent?

00:08:38
Speaker 1: Okay? See, but that's not that crazy, Like if you were if you were six point seven, but you know, hoping that something good or bad was going to happen to you, and you hear you have a fifty seven percent chance good forty three percent, but you wouldn't feel that good about it.

00:08:49
Speaker 2: No, there are a lot of close ones this week because a lot of like some of these ones that are worth nothing have surprisingly close Like they're volatile. There's a lot of volatility in outcomes that don't matter like Tennessee exactly.

00:09:02
Speaker 1: And so that was, like, what the heck. One of the reasons why I struggled to pick this week was the games. And there's five of them with two teams that are not in contention against each other. I struggled with those types of games, and so that's why I went here. And I'm on the same side as you, and I know you're not going to go against your Lions for this. Uh So I'm going Pittsburgh plus seven. Okay, Now it's one of those games.

00:09:24
Speaker 2: I have them only winning by six.

00:09:25
Speaker 1: So okay, there you go.

00:09:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, so then we'd be on the side.

00:09:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. Okay, I was thinking you said five, you've been fifth most confident, not five, I'm.

00:09:33
Speaker 2: Sorry, six points the fifth in terms of confidence.

00:09:36
Speaker 1: Okay, but you have the you have the Steelers covering, And honestly, that six scenario is a huge reason why I really like the Steelers in this game, because I think they can underperform. I think they can be a little disappointing in this game defensively and lose the game thirty to twenty four and we cover, and by we, I'm on the Steelers bandwagon this week. Why seven point is a lot.

00:10:00
Speaker 2: For You're on the Steelers bandwagon to win or to cover.

00:10:04
Speaker 1: I picked the Lions to win on our show game debut, so I got to go by by that. Putting my money where my mouth is, but I wouldn't be surprised. And that's one of my maxims in making this is if you wouldn't be surprised that the team is going to win straight up and you're getting a big number, usually for me it's six or more, and I'm like, I can see them winning that game. I think this would be a good win for the Lions. I think the numbers and this is where I'll ask you, the numbers love the Lions right now. I feel like some of the underlying numbers DVA for instance, has them as the number three team in the entire NFL, and that's crazy to me. And I know you're making a skeptical view. I know your numbers don't have that, but I think because they're so good offensively, they are the number one scoring team in the league that the some of the models, and maybe yours is in there, they have them as a six point favorite against an eight and six Steelers team. What are they seeing in the Lions that maybe look at them as a better team than maybe I do right now?

00:11:04
Speaker 2: Leverage because they're taking more risks, and the Steelers, to me, the Steelers defense not being the Steelers defense that we're used to means that when you have when you take risks like going for an and fourth down like the Lions do, then if they work even two fifths of the time right forty percent of the time, then you're going to score a touchdown instead of I think that when I look at a seven point win for the Lions in this scenario, I think what it's saying is that the Lions' risk riskiness on offense overvalued compared Like I would have thought it'd be four points, right, that sounds four or five points. I wouldn't have thought a full touchdown.

00:11:40
Speaker 1: And it goes back to something we talk about on NFL Daily lot, do you do you value the entire season's worth of data or do you value the last three or four weeks? And I think when I'm looking at the Lions and thinking about the players that they're missing. Sam Laporta is not coming back, Brian Branch is not coming back, Herbie Joseph he hasn't come back yet, and when he does, will he be Okay, we don't know about that.

00:12:06
Speaker 2: Lions fans right now are like, but what but do we get Christian Mahogany the guard?

00:12:10
Speaker 1: Maybe? Maybe? But the offensive line is not coming back to being a dominant offensive line now one of the reasons why I'm a little dangerous. It feels like I'm walking into a trap. Seven points. And then I'm believing a little bit in what I've seen from Aaron Rodgers the last couple of weeks. Right, I think he's at his best two games of the season in a row. I'm like, Okay, you're showing you guys are showing me some development on offense. TJ. Watt not expected to play because of the lung situation. And then Nick Herbig, who is a dynamite replacement for TJ. Watt, is out of practice, left the game late against Miami. It seems like he might miss this game with a hamstring injury. And so suddenly you're losing two of the best pass rushers in the AFC, like in the league, like Herbig's in the top ten fifteen for pass rusher win rate, all that stuff. So you're losing two big pass rushers. You give Jared gott some time, it might be like I would take the over in this game big time. I like tons of points for both teams. I would like the Lions over team total for sure. Yeah, I have it right, but I actually can I have big time over. I do not like where the Lions defense is at right now. So that's the big reasons. I kind of think the Steelers can keep up a little bit in a shootout and just a one score game.

00:13:20
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I just okay, okay, So I told you I don't like the games with nothing to play for. However, I do think one there's one that I like enough of what to play for to pick for them, and that's Tyler Shuck the New Orleans the New Orleans Saints. I like that quietly, Tyler. So it's four and a half points at home. The Saints are favored over the Jets, and I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation, and also the fact that the Jets are on historic pace of not having any interceptions this season. Even if they have one, that's still not going to be nowhere. You're being good at intercepting the ball. But I'm looking at this and I'm like, he's trying to prove that he's the quarterback to build around there. This Saints, they're good at it. They're sneaky good at stopping inside runs, and that's kind of the bag of tricks that Bryce Hall and the Jets like to try to run. I don't trust a darned thing about this Jets. I know they fired their defensive Quarner. I get it. I think it's mean to fire a defensive cordator after trading away Quentin Williams and Sauce Gardner with three games left. Whatever. Not my decision, but that's a weird decision in my opinion. And I don't think that gives you the bump of being like, yeah, now we're gonna go out there and beat the pants off of Tyler Shuck and the New Orleans Saints. No, they're gonna run the football. They're gonna have some nice passes. Shuck has done a good job of running the football himself. It's been they've won two. They just beat the Panthers. They can do it, and they're at home.

00:14:40
Speaker 1: And they just beat the Bucks. Shuck is playing really well. I love that one. I don't know why it isn't.

00:14:45
Speaker 2: I understand it was nothing for it. I mean because these games where there's nothing. Yeah, but I think Shuck has something. Shuck sitting or being like I'm your quarterback.

00:14:53
Speaker 1: He looks really good. They have a couple injuries, Devon vele and Devin Neil, but those aren't like superstar players. They're just playing a lot of snap for them. He is playing as well, certainly as any rookie quarterback right now in the NFL. And you know what's interesting about this one, because I agree we do an over under pod at the beginning of the year. Yeah, it was me and Nick Wright this year and under Saints five and a half was one of my picks, and they were at two and ten a couple of weeks ago, and you're feeling so they would have had to win four out of five to finish the year to pull that off. If they win this game, that's three straight and then they only need one more to in. The two games remaining are at Tennessee at Atlanta, two games where they're going to have an opportunity to win the game. They might have.

00:15:38
Speaker 2: Favorite what the heck they're doing?

00:15:40
Speaker 1: Huh? I might lose that. They might lose this, Okay, but I hope I do, because that'll mean you were you were right, and they got to they gotta cover four and a half. I think they can last one. Thought about a few different big favorites. You took the Texans, so I'm going to take my other big favorite, and that's Buffalo minus ten and a half. I just don't think the Cleveland defense is in the same place right now as it was.

00:16:01
Speaker 2: Who's playing a month ago other than Miles Garrett. It's like we get these emails about whose potential and like the Browns one like it's like this long. They're like, oh, well, maybe you should just tell me who's playing, because most teams it's like this long.

00:16:15
Speaker 1: Brown's like it's like a Dostoevsky novel. It is if you look at the Browns just and very dark, just like yes, it's like and a lot of those players are offensive linemen. Uh for the Browns well, and.

00:16:27
Speaker 2: Then like Denzel Ward and Carsion Schwaschinger like, yes, there's some other ones too.

00:16:30
Speaker 1: Ward says he'll play, but he keeps missing practice, so we'll see.

00:16:34
Speaker 2: And he say he was gonna play last week too. I don't know.

00:16:38
Speaker 1: When you don't have any offensive lineman. I actually think the Bills overall up front have been better down the stretch.

00:16:45
Speaker 2: They are helping you don't have any offensive lineman, yeah, I mean better if there's no offensive lineman.

00:16:51
Speaker 1: That was the thing about Shitter's performance last week. He did not play great, but you're literally playing with one starting offensive.

00:16:57
Speaker 2: Well, they blitzed and he was like a.

00:17:01
Speaker 1: Last two games for the Browns at home. Yeah, I just went to check this. Lost by eighteen to the forty nine ers in bad weather too, which what it should have kept the score down, and lost to the Titans, which is you know, that's a bad loss. So I think sometimes with these meaningless teams right now, you're at home, I don't think that's an advantage. It's just bad vibes there. That place is miserable and on top of everything else. This is more of an anti Browns than it is a pro Bills. But I'm very pro Bills right now. I think Josh Allen could still win the MVP. Whatever those odds are right now, I would take them in terms of I don't know the value, he's definite. He's pretty a distant Yeah, he's a pretty distant third. I think he's got a real chance here, although you'll have to, you know, put those in. We'll see. They have the worst special teams the Browns in the entire NFL. According to DVOA, by a decent amount. So, I mean, your offense is struggling. One thing that was good was your defense, but now you're getting run on every week. And the Bills are great at running the ball, so I could see them. This would be like an Eagles Raiders situation where they're winning this game by twenty five thirty points. All right?

00:18:11
Speaker 2: Can we pick a Saturday game? Is that fair game?

00:18:14
Speaker 1: Absolutely?

00:18:15
Speaker 2: Okay? Cause I like the Packers to.

00:18:17
Speaker 1: Cover one mm.

00:18:19
Speaker 2: They're road favorites by one point in Chicago. I know there's no micro Parsons. I'm aware heard that. You know, I actually heard about that somewhere.

00:18:27
Speaker 1: I picked the Packers too, so I'm with you. I didn't. I didn't feel good that it was just a stay away for me. But that is my pick for that game.

00:18:33
Speaker 2: I just I know that there's a lot of like hype around the Bears, I understand, but there's no real mood Dunesday yeah there? Who else are we missing?

00:18:42
Speaker 1: Luther Burden?

00:18:43
Speaker 2: So even if you're even if DJ Moores been playing great, which he has, you still now have a much different defensive capability of shutting down the pass catching game. It's not even like you were seeing kileblames lighted up through the air anyways. I mean, he had a nice game last week, but like, okay, like I need to see it more consistently before I'm willing to to go with that. But the Packers are really hard to run on, and I understand that Micah Parsons is not there, so they're gonna whatever. But they're built to not allow explosive runs or passes. So if they even have good a few yards, it's okay because they're better in the red area and then they're and they're good at not allowing explosives. So I just think that the Packers show the Bears why they're still the classes A division.

00:19:27
Speaker 1: Big laflaur game. You know, nobody believed in us after the Micah Parsons.

00:19:31
Speaker 2: Wait, can we do that we did to do that handshake that was so awkward with Ben that like that was so good. Just the drive by Ben Ben Johnson's hilarious. I mean, he you know he's going to keep it safe. Think a shirt will come off after that's I.

00:19:43
Speaker 1: Mean, you don't say that you enjoyed beating Matt Lafleur twice a year, so you stay in the division unless he really did enjoy beating Matt Laflair twice a year. Bring back just like the smallest bit of trash talking. It's fine. These are confident men who trash talk a lot in real life. Let's do it in front of a microphone again.

00:20:03
Speaker 2: I'm with you on the trash talk, but just be good at it, Like.

00:20:06
Speaker 1: Don't he's pretty good. That's good.

00:20:08
Speaker 2: He's weird.

00:20:09
Speaker 1: Is weird?

00:20:09
Speaker 2: I kind of get it.

00:20:10
Speaker 1: They like him.

00:20:12
Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's not a great coach, but like I just feel like maybe he's like pulling it back. But like I kind of get the ick when he's talking about it, Like I wish you would just say what he was gonna say.

00:20:21
Speaker 1: Right, It's kind of like everyone got really fired up with the taking the shirt off thing, and and I get that he got free hot dogs for the entire city. There was a whole story behind that. They said, if he had taken off his shirt, then everyone gets free hot dogs at this hot dog stand. So he did everyone at a solid in Chicago. I don't ask while they're still there in Chicago. You gotta get as many hot dogs as he can. That was actually the reason, the biggest reason why I support your pick is when the Bears put out that statement to their season ticket holders that they're considering every possibility, including moving to Gary, Indiana, a couple of days before you play the Packers. Bad juju. It's an embarrassment. That's what bad organizations do, is put out a statement about possibly moving to Gary, Indiana days before playing the Packers and the biggest game in a decade.

00:21:11
Speaker 2: Michael Jackson is from Gary, Indiana. And when you drive through it, so I'm from Michigan. I lived in Chicago, went to a business school there and all that stuff. You drive home, you go through Gary, Indiana, you don't stop in Gary. You don't stop in Gary, Indiana.

00:21:25
Speaker 1: The fine folks of Gary taking uh.

00:21:27
Speaker 2: I'm just I'm sure that there are nice areas of Gary, but where they would put a stadium is not where you would have the nice areas. They're not tearing up any nice areas.

00:21:36
Speaker 1: It just gives too much trash talking Indie Botter for Packers fans Illinois. Now Bears fans got to be on social all weekend and they're gonna hear everyone calling them the Gary Bears. You know, the Gary Barrys. Who knows I don't think that's anything that would ever actually happen. Kind of like when the Patriots almost moved to Hartford. But it's one more reason to take the Packers, all right. Cynthia's picks to recap. She's got the Texans minus two touchdowns fourteen, the Saints minus four and a half, and the Packers. What did that line settle at the pack the Packers being a one point favorite. I took the Chargers. They are two and a half point underdogs in Dallas. Way too much respect there for the Cowboys. Feel a little less good, but okay about the Steelers plus seven and then I have the Bills minus ten and a half in Cleveland. Let's keep the winning streak going. We're trying to make it twelve straight weeks. We have even more wins in the feed coming your way on Saturday. Really excited for everyone to hear this episode. It's gonna be me and Allie Connolly the Saturday Sicko Show. We're going to go through every coaching situation in the league and decide who's who's keeping their job who's not. Could Harbor or Tomlin go and then propose some good candidates. John Harbough Jim. Jim is safe. He's not going back to Michigan.

00:22:59
Speaker 2: Actually, after beating Dallas.

00:23:01
Speaker 1: No uh so before. We will be back on Saturday. With that and thanks to Cynthia, We'll see you next week.