669: 15 Transactions for Week 1

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode six hundred and sixty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in, we made it. It's week one, which means you're about to hear the same rotation of episodes each week on this show. Tuesday is fifteen Transactions Day. That's what this episode is for those of you who are newer to the show. Fifteen Transactions started all the way back in twenty thirteen. I wrote a column each week on players to buy, sell, ad and drop, and I sort of treated it as my fantasy football brain dump, and I still do. It's sort of the place where I put a ton of different thoughts together on the fantasy football landscape as a whole. And make no mistake, I'm gonna be wrong about the things that I talk about on this episode each week. That's what happens with fantasy footballalysis you get things wrong. I'm not just concerned about being right or being wrong. I'm concerned about being helpful. I want to get your mind thinking about things in different ways to help you win a fantasy football championship. You don't have to take action on these transactions. In fact, you probably won't for a lot of them, but hearing the process and why I feel the way that I do about these players that can often help you shape your own process when you're evaluating players in season. Now. I used to write my fifteen transactions article over on number fire dot com, but I'm no longer a FanDuel and number fire employee, so the article itself will be emailed out every Tuesday morning to Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter subscribers. If you like reading alongside this podcast, you can subscribe for absolutely free over on lateround dot com. I'm really just going over that article on this show each week, but with the podcast, I'm able to give you a little bit more context. But make sure you're subscribed by going to lateround dot com. And if you're not receiving the emails, check your spam or junk folders because they might be landing there. Now. Before get into the transactions this week, I have a question to ask you, guys, do you need more smart football content? If so, my friend entrusted analyst Ed Fang is one of the best at applying analytics to football betting. On his podcast, The Football Analytics Show, he has his twenty twenty two preview series. There's solo episodes like You Hear From Me. On this podcast, he also interviews the sharpest minds in football betting. So check out The Football Analytics Show wherever you get your podcasts. Also, with the twenty twenty two NFL season nearly underway, Fandle and GMC are back to bring you the gmccierra Mountain Climber Pick them, a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in Fandel's site credit every Sunday courtesy of GMC. Here's how it works. Every Sunday during the NFL season, you'll have a chance to answer questions based on the day's non primetime games. The more questions you answer correctly, the higher up the mountain you'll move. If during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect scorer, you'll reach the summit and you'll win your share of ten thousand dollars in pit credit. The contest series is now live, so head tofandle dot com Slash Free slash contest slash GMC to start Climbing the Mountain by Trey Lance. I talked about this in the Mailbag episode last week, but I think a lot of fantasy managers are nervous about Jimmy Garoppolo's sticking in San Francisco. I'm not as nervous. Yes, we might see a slightly shorter leash for Trey Lance given what Jimmy g has done in that offense, But when Trey Lance is playing, he's more than likely going to be very good in fantasy football. In two starts last year, he scored fourteen point six and nineteen point one fantasy points. In one of those games, he was about an inch away from scoring a rushing touchdown. He ran the ball to twenty four times during those two starts. That's a number that's higher than Lamar Jackson's average rushes per game since he became starter. I'm not suggesting that Lance is going to be a bigger threat on the ground than Lamar Jackson. I'm just saying that the rushing component is absolutely there for Trey Lance, and we know that we want that in fantasy football, and the system is there too. Jimmy Garoppolo, a guy that no one wanted throughout the NFL, had the second highest yards per attempt rate last year. It's a good scheme and they have very good weapons. And the other thing about Trey Lance, his schedule is nice. In weeks one and two, they're facing pro football focuses preseason ring thirty second and thirtieth pass defenses, and according to Fandal Sportsbook, the forty nine ers have a top half team total across weeks one and two. So I think that Lance is going to get off to a pretty good start, and we know that he has the upside to be a very very good fantasy quarterback this year. If Jimmy Garoppolo is the reason that you don't want Trey Lance, then you probably don't won Trey Lance because you don't think he's gonna be very good, which is totally fine, but I think that the upside is worth it. Sell David Montgomery. So look, if you've read the Late Round Draft Guide, if you've listened to this podcast throughout the off season, then you already know that I haven't been drafting David Montgomery. I'm not the biggest David Montgomery fan. This year. It's not that I think that he's bad. I just think the market is making a lot of assumptions for him. He ranked first in running back snap share two years ago, and he was second last year, behind only Naji Harris. You might be sitting there and saying, oh, that's a great thing. Snaps correlate to fantasy success, which they do. But the problem is the only way to go for Montgomery is down. Why should we assume he's gonna maintain that snap share. You have a completely new system in Chicago, you have a completely new coaching staff, and Khalil Herbert, his backup, was awesome last year. He gained twenty plus yards in the ground at a better rate than Montgomery, and he had a better success rate too. And now there's speculation that Herbert could end up being the lead back by the end of the year. Given this scheme. I can't even disagree with that. I think Khalil Herbert is very, very good. And then, to make things even worse for David Montgomery, in weeks one and two, the Bears get San Francisco and then they get Green Bay. According to Fandels Sportsbooks lines, the Bears are fifteen point underdogs in total during those two games. That's the third highest or third worst mark in the league, so they're expected to lose those games. That means that game script would not favor David Montgomery, which means he might not get off to a hot start. So I'm not really into David Montgomery in the short term or the long term this year. Add Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis. So we had these backfield injuries in Baltimore last year and they've now trickled in to this season. Gus Edwards on the pup and JK Dobbins might not play in Week one, is available is up in the air. Next in line for Baltimore, you have Mike Davis and the newly acquired Kenyan Drake. I would assume that Mike Davis gets the most work on the ground in Week one if JK. Dobbins is sidelined, I wouldn't be surprised if Davis saw the most work. Even if JK. Dobbins is active, He's the one who's been around all summer in this offense. Kenyan Drake just joined last week. And the thing is in Week one, Baltimore gets the Jets, it has a chance to be the Mike Davis show, because if Baltimore gets out to a comfortable lead, which is very possible given their six and a half point favorites, Mike Davis could see a lot of work. So Davis is a worthy pickup. But I do think that longer term, Kenyan Drake is the better player. So you can still add Kenyan Drake and maybe he gets thrown in there in a rotation with Dobbins this year because I do think he's the second best running back on that roster given the fact that Gus Edwards is still banged up. Hold Antonio Gibson. So again, like David Montgomer, Antonio Gibson is someone that I haven't been drafting this season. You guys know that, and it's because the Commanders have been telling us with their actions and their words that Antonio Gibson is not going to be their belcal back. They re signed Jad McKissick, They drafted Brian Robinson on Day two. They openly talked about this backfield being a committee, and I talked about this on last week's Mailbag show as well. It seems like the fantasy football world thinks that it was Brian Robinson that was holding Antonio Gibson back now. He was, He definitely was, but don't forget about JD. McKissick. Gibson saw a double digit percentage target shair in just two of eleven games last year when Jad McKissick was active. When he wasn't active, he hit it in three of five games. Gibson had five top ten weekly PPR performances at running back last year. Three of those five came in the five games without JD. McKissick. But the reason I'm not just full blown selling him right now is because of Washington's early season schedule. The Commanders get the Jazz and then they get the Lions. They're actually favorites in both of those games according to Fandels Sportsbook, so there's less of a chance that makissick is heavily involved in those contests. If you have a neutral or positive game script, we will see more. Antonio Gibson, you can absolutely sell right now, but I would also consider waiting until after Week two ad Johan Dotson. So, speaking of that Washington schedule, the passing attack is also going to benefit. According to Pro Football Focus, Jacksonville has the nineteenth rank secondary entering the year, Detroit's at twenty five. So enter Jehan Dotson. He's been consistently playing with the first team offensive offseason and he should have a role immediately, probably in the slot. My prospect model rated Dotson in the ninety fourth percentile. It's just that he's being overshadowed by these other really good wide receivers from this class. But make no mistake, Johan Dotson is very good and he's still available in seventy nine percent of Yahoo leagues, so go at him. Sell Naji Harris. So last week I brought up Naji Harris on the Risers and Folloers episode, and it wasn't because he was moving in the right direction. Harris ended up being someone who wasn't on a ton of my fantasy teams this year. I do think the volume is obviously gonna be there, and we should be chasing volume in fantasy football, but there's also a lot of volume for the other running backs that were being drafted around him, and I do think that Naji Harris is likely to see less work this year than what he saw last year. Since twenty eleven, we've seen seventy nine running backs hit twenty plus touches per game while playing eight or more games in the season, and that's receptions plus attempts. Of those seventy nine, sixty one have next season data where they continue to play at least eight games. So we're looking at sixty one running backs who had twenty plus touches one season and in the following season they played eight games they were active. Just forty two point six percent of those running backs hit twenty touches per game the following year, and only fourteen of the sixty one improved on that number. So chances are Harris, who was at twenty two point four touches last year, he won't hit that mark this year. And I've mentioned this before, but I think a lot of this could be driven by his receiving numbers. Ben Roethlisberger is no longer the quarterback for the Steelers. They're gonna have a more mobile passer under center, whether it's Mitch Trubisky or whether it's Kenny Pickett. That could lead to fewer dumpoffs and last year Naji Harris, according to PFF, he led the NFL and targets behind the line of scrimmage. And he's now coming off this Liz Frank injury and the Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in football. I don't think that he's incapable of being like a high end rby two or even a low end RB one. My fear is the ceiling. He's gonna see a lot of work, but a running back still needs to have a lot of scoring opportunities, and he needs to see a lot of work through the air in order to be a true top three running back. There are other guys you can get for Naji Harris right now who have a better range of outcomes than he does. Add Romeo Dobbs. Now, look, I know that a lot of you guys have been drafting best ball teams all summer like I have, and we've seen the rise of Romeo Dobbs. He went from someone that no one was really talking about during draft time to a potential high target option in this Packers offense. So it might have been weird to hear me say that he's an AD. But here's the thing. Over on Yahoo, he's only rostered in thirty two percent of leagues. That means that the people listening to this show right now, he's sitting on a lot of waiver wires in your leagues. Look at the Packers wide receiver landscape, look at their pass catching landscape. They don't have any secure weapons there. Christian Watson was hurt during camp and he's a raw prospect. Alan Lazard is an unproven alpha. Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb are way past their prime, and Dobbs was an underrated prospect. He had a positive draft capital delta in my model, and I think that he can take on a Marquez Valdez scantling role right away. Pro Football Focused Data said that Dobbs ranked in the top thirty in deep ballyards and receptions last year in college football, and in twenty twenty he was third in deep ballyards only behind DeVante Smith and Diami Brown. My model does like Christian Watson more than Romeo Dobbs, but it's because of draft capital. I would not be shocked if Dobbs ends up being the better player. And there's a chance right now at the time of this recording, that Alan Lazar doesn't suit up this weekend, and that would give Dobbs even more of a boost by the Denver Broncos offense. So we've got Russell Wilson leading the Broncos offense. Now, as we all know, this transaction is pretty straightforward. As a result, not only could Denver's offense just be really good all season long, but they're gonna start the year off probably pretty hot because they get the Seahawks and then the Texans, so all Broncos players are in play at least a trade for I do think the one player that's probably most interesting from this team early in the season, though, is Melvin Gordon. He's not someone that I'm necessarily wanting to rely on all season because we know the upsides really really capped by Javonte Williams. But Denver has the most favorable combined points spread of any team in the league during weeks one and two. So even if we see Williams capture a bigger backfield chair this year, Gordon could get a decent number of touches to start the season because Denver would be in positive game scripts. So maybe you could consider this a Melvin Gordon transaction. I just wouldn't go overboard because he's not someone I really want to rely on week in and week out. It's just that to start the season they have really favorable matchups, adds z A Mere White. I was pretty surprised at Zamir White's roster percentage over on Yahoo's actually pretty low. But every sign points the Raiders using a backfield committee, like we saw a Josh McDaniel's in New England. I don't think Josh Jacobs is gonna see the workload that he saw last year. We're gonna probably see a Mere Abdullah be a pass catching back for them and then Zamir White share work on early downs. So I do think that Abdullah is a decent ad in deeper PPR leagues. But Zamir White's really intriguing because he's a very intriguing prospect. He shared a back people with James Cook in college. James Cook a great pass catching back. That limited Zamir White for sure, but so did injury. As part of the reason why Zamir White did not look good in my prospect model, he didn't have a complete production profile. But he's a five star recruit out of high school and he's a really impressive size speed combo. His way add justin forty yard dashtime placed him about the ninety fifth percentile at the running back position. Jacobs is on his last year of his contract, and the Raiders didn't get him with a fifth year option. There's a chance that Vegas slowly phases him out of that offense. If they do that, Zamir White is absolutely gonna benefit sell Rashad Penny. I almost feel like I'm on an island with the way that I'm viewing Rashad Penny. And that's even more so now because Kenneth Walker's banged up. But there's a lot not to like about Rashad Penny. His injury history is definitely worrisome. He's played thirty seven games across his four year career. He's hit fifteen or more carries in just five games now. He helped us win a lot of Fantasy championships last year, and I'm very grateful for that, but his production during that stretch was not sustainable. He averaged six point three yards per carry and he saw eight total targets eight. That's it. His highest single game target share last season was ten point seven percent. And yet, like I just said, he had some amazing production down the stretch last year. Over Seattle's final five games in twenty twenty one, Penny had four top ten PPR performances at the running back position. But guys, Seattle was three and two during that stretch. I feel like that gets lost sometimes. Entering twenty twenty two, they don't have Russell Wilson. They're projected to be one of the worst teams in football. So if we don't see a lot of pass upside for Penny, are we expecting Seattle to be a lot better than advertised? Are we thinking that he's gonna maintain his yards per carry pace? Why would we make those assumptions. The Seahawks are pretty big underdogs in each of their first two games this year too, before they get Atlanta in Week three. There is a worry that Rashad Penny gets game scripted out of those games. And the reason why I'm bringing him up right now is because you might be able to sell him with this Kenneth Walker injury, because it's so up in the air. We have no idea what's going on with Walker. But if and when Walker's back, we're looking at a split backfield within a very bad offense. It's really hard for me to buy into that. Add Alec Pierce, So my prospect model did not like Alec Pierce a whole lot, But I'm warming up to him and I have been the last couple of months. Athleticism itself is typically overrated at wide receiver. It can't hurt to be athletic, but production is more important analytically, and Alec Pierce didn't have a great production profile. He had a fine enough breakout age, but he was below average in the three main production metrics that my model uses, and he wasn't an early declare either. But keep in mind sometimes athleticism translates. We saw that to some degree a couple of years ago with Chase Claypool and in your season long league. The cost to acquire Pierce is absolutely nothing. He's rostered only eight percent of YAHOO leagues right now. This is not a dynasty take in redraft. These are fine bets to make because he has a legitimate shot to be the colts number two option this year. By Kadarius Tony. We've seen Kadarius Tony's ADP drop a little bit over the last month because of this injury that he's been dealing with with his leg and his knee basically is everything, and maybe this is who he is. Maybe Kadarius Tony is just a guy who's always going to be on the injury report because remember he was banged up last year too. But I'm still willing to buy into him because his rookie season was really underrated, says eleven. We've seen over one hundred rookie wide receivers hit fifty plus targets during that first year. Among those players, Tony's targets per route run rate ranked second best, behind only Tyreek Hill. So when Tony was on the field, he was getting a lot of looks, and only seven of those wide receivers had a better yards per route run rate than Tony. And you could argue that yards per route run for rookie wide receivers is one of the more predictive metrics that you can find. And then, obviously, like I talked about on the Breakout Wide Receivers episode, second year, wide receivers in the middle rounds breakout in an obscene rate. That's exactly what Kadarius Tony is. Situationally, things could be a lot better for Tony, but you are sort of getting an injury discount on him right now. In the end, buying talent a wide receiver is never a bad idea ad Gerald Everett. It's tough to find late round breakout tight ends. But one of the things that I've found by analyzing historical ADP is that late round tight ends who have top five quarterbacks by ADP, they break out at a pretty decent rate. It's what got me on to Dawson Knox last year and Dalton Schultz to some degree, and then in twenty nineteen we had Austin Hooper. Gerald Everett fits that mold this season, and he's got some historical production to back up the idea that he's not a bad pass catching tight end. So if you punted the position or he just won a little bit more depth at the position, he makes some sense. And he's still available in seventy seven percent of Yahoo leagues. By Tony Pollard. You guys are probably sick of me talking about Pollard because I've been talking about him all off season. He's been drafted around his projection and that might seem reasonable, but that projection assumes that Ezekiel Elliott is healthy. If Zeke gets hurt, Pollard becomes a potential RB one in fantasy football. We can sit here and talk about how the Cowboys might use Pollard a little bit more a wide receiver, or we can sit here and talk about how team RB twos by ADP who get drafted in the middle rounds, who then have teammate RB ones in the running back dead zone, how those RB two's break out at really good rates. Historically, we can talk about how Tony Pollard has been one of the most efficient running backs in football of late, and we can also talk about that over the first couple of weeks of the season, Dallas gets Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, two potential shootouts. But I really want to just go back to that very simple baseline. People have been valuing Tony Pollard at his projection. We shouldn't do that for players who have contingent upside like he has. Add the Cincinnati Bengals defense. So the Bengals get the Steelers in Week one. According to Fandels Sportsbook, they're six and a half point favorites. Now, Pittsburgh's been decent at allowing sacks the last couple of years, but it's not because their offensive line is good. It's because with Ben Roethlisberger, they just got rid of the ball really quick. He hated taking sacks. That's likely to change with whoever's under center for Pittsburgh. So since he should play with a positive game script. Defensively, they're at home. To me, they're an obvious streaming choice. That's gonna do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and do for to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Make sure to check out lateround dot com right now. The big thing that's happening over there is the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon where I'm providing weekly rankings and start sit help. And there's an awesome, awesome discord community that's been built up too. It's really an awesome group of people, so you can join that by just heading to lateround dot com and clicking Patreon. Thanks for listening, everyone really appreciate it. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.