987: Mailbag - NFL Draft Predictions, Market Mismatches, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha J J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode nine and eighty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. This is an early mailbag episode because the NFL Draft starts tonight. I'll be busy working on the Prospect Guide as the picks come in, so as I do each year, I want to get this episode done and out there before the festivities really begin. And speaking of the Prospect Guide, remember that you can still get the pre draft version of the guide up until the draft is over. If you get the pre draft version, you'll get the post draft version too, but anyone who buys the guide say on Sunday, you'll only receive that post draft version. The guide is one hundred and sixty pages long with tons of prospect and Year two profile write ups for running backs and wide receivers, and if you're into you get to see what goes into both the ZAP and the Year two models as well. You can learn more about it over on Lateround dot com. The first question this week is from blue Sky. It's from Bluebird. It says the NFL Draft is finally here. While your Draft Guide updates will be incredibly helpful, I often feel like I need to take action quickly since everyone is so focused on the results in real time. What should dynasty managers focus on to avoid over and underreacting to the new information? Thanks, so, just to be clear to promote this fact one more time, the Prospect Guide will be updated for everyone by the time Saturday night rolls around, which means if that's not fast enough for you, then you're making moves in your dynasty league while the draft is happening, which is next level dedication. Now, I don't know how to directly answer this question aside from you can get all my thoughts like four hours after the draft is over, but all lease explain how I consume the draft and how I think about the draft. Since I started doing these prospect Guys as is guide number four, now, I've realized that having a good grasp on where prospects are expected to go can be really helpful as you watch the draft. They're projected draft capital. If your goal is to immediately capitalize on something happening in the draft, then you need context for the things that are happening in the draft, and the dynasty consensus doesn't always think about that context. For example, Troy Franklin last year, he was someone who many thought was like a lock to be a second round pick. His NFL Mock Draft database big board projection was forty second overall, but he fell in the draft. He wasn't even selected on Day two, And immediately when that happened, you knew that something was up because you had that context of where he was supposed to go. But you knew something was up because so many teams were passing on him over and over again. Now, there's usually a little bit of a lag for that to become a consensus thought in the dynasty space. When he went one hundred and second overall, people were still anchoring to that day two price tag. Eventually it does wear off and people realize, oh, yeah, okay, this is a Day three pick. But in terms of immediately capitalizing, that's the easiest way to do it, which is to adjust your priors based on draft capital itself. Now the ZAP model that's what helps me do that more precisely. But if you just reference NFL mox Draft database during the draft and sort of compare and contrast, where these players get drafted, you can find players who might be over or undervalued. But like I said, if you're looking at my takes on things, I would just wait a few hours after the draft for the updated late round prospect guy to drop. That guide will have brand new blurbs for every relevant player. So like with a wide receiver class, I might rewrite like twenty to thirty of the player pages on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and those updated player pages will reflect their new score, their new draft cap, and their NFL teams. Hopefully that kind of answers your question. The nice question is also from Blue Skies from Deadman Walkin'. It says, over under two and a half first round running backs, over under two and a half first round quarterbacks, over under three and a half first round wide receivers. Okay, so a lot of you were going to listen to this episode on Friday, maybe even Saturday, Sunday and so on, and by that point I'm gonna either look like a moron or someone who's really smart. And to be clear, I'm not a betting tout. This is not me saying that you should go find a sports book and place these bets immediately. I'm just a nerd living in his mom's basement trying to solve fantasy football, and in doing so, I've studied a lot of movement in mock drafts with the skill players. Now, with that caveat out of the way, here's my answer. I think under two and a half running backs, I think over two and a half quarterbacks, and I'll say over three and a half wide receivers assuming we're counting Travis Hunter. Here. The players in my mind here who are going to be first round picks at running back Ashton Genty and Amari and Hampton, and then at quarterback cam Ward Jackson Dart and probably Shadoor Sanders, although that's kind of going back and forth. And then the four wide receivers, I think it's gonna be Travis Hunter, Teed McMillan, Matthew Golden, and I think a Mecha Buka is gonna sneak into round one. The one player I am kind of back and forth with here is probably Trayvon Henderson aside from Shadoor Sanders, but I'll just stick with Hampton and Genty at running back. Now, you can do whatever you want from a betting standpoint with that information, I'm using this time strictly to give my take on how the first round might look, not to tell you to go make money off of this information. I haven't studied the betting markets like I've studied mock drafts in general. This that's questions from Chuckster on Patreon. It says found your Perspective's episode with Matt Waldman fascinating. As always in the RSP, he acknowledges that Hampton may be a consensus top three rookie pick, but advises to wait on running back because of the great depth of the position. Are you putting Hampton at number two because there are only two elite producers at running back? So the value is actually to weight at wide receiver, which has three elite producers? Or is it as simple as his Zapp score being higher than any of the wide receivers. So, first off, anyone who has the Prospect Guide, the tiers that I developed this offseason, they're not really meant to be compared across positions because there are different requirements for each position in fantasy, and there are different hit rates for each category. Like running back, elite producers don't have an identical hit rate to wide receiver elite producers. ZAPP scores are not meant to be compared across different positions. Second, when it comes to rookie drafts, I'm not really someone who drafts based on what I can get later. This isn't a season long draft where you're doing some sort of vorp calculation and drafting from an entire poll of players. Not only that, but dynasty leagues are often way more active than season long leagues are, and what that means is you can trade more frequently. That's why I and many others we've always said that when it comes to rookie drafts, you draft for value and you trade for need. Meaning if I'm loaded at running back and there's a clear running back who'd be the next pick in my rookie draft, I have no problem taking that running back. Yes, running back is deeper than wide receiver this year, there's no doubt, But if there's a clear tear drop about to happen, I'll gladly take the running back, even if my team is loaded at that position. And when it comes to Mari and Hampton, I've talked about this so much now he checks a lot of the analytical boxes that I care for him to check. I sent a newsletter out on Tuesday where I gave twenty five data nuggets about the twenty twenty five class, and one of them was about Amari and Hampton. It said, quote, there have been just four running backs in the ZAP model's history to get drafted in the top one hundred with one hundred and ten plus speed score and a best season reception share north of fifteen percent. Those rushers include DeMarco Murray, Todd Gurley, Sakwan Barkley, and Jamier Gibbs. As long as he's taken on day one or day two, A Mari and Hampton will join that cohort. Look, I appreciate Matt Waldman and everything that he does. I care about his opinions, which is why I'm now bringing him on to the show yearly to have a long discussion about each draft class. This stuff is not an exact science, so having different perspectives is really important. But like I just said, it's not an exact science. We're gonna disagree. I have a different evaluation of a Mari and Hampton, and I have different thoughts on him than Waldman does. First round picks have really great hit rates and the stuff that the ZAP model looks at. Hampton looks great in those things, size, speed score. Even as receiving numbers aren't that bad, they're actually good within the model. So that's my general answer. I'm not ranking players in rookie drafts based on what I can get later, because I personally have no problem walking away from a four round rookie draft with four running backs as long as I felt like I was getting good value from those picks. I'm betting on players getting better and gaining value, which in turn gains value for my overall team, and then I can flip those players if need be. Now, if I'm staring at three players sort of in the same tier and they play three different positions, I'll use team need as a very easy tie breaker that happens all the time. But when it comes to Hampton, I just think there's a lot of safety and a guy with his profile who's a potential first round pick. Now, if you're listening to this after round one and Hampton didn't get drafted in round one, then my evaluation is going to change. There's less of an investment made in that player. Teams are passing on him. All of that has to be baked into your evaluation. But the depth of running back won't change my approach in rookie drafts, because, unlike an NFL team, I can have nine running backs on my dynasty roster and still gain value from that. The next question is actually related to what I just said, and it's from Henry. It says, Hey, JJ, considering how important draft capital is in the model, I'm wondering if you adjust for depth of position i e. And a loaded draft, good talent might fall. So. Look, I get this question all the time, like every week, and I probably answered it before in a mailbag episode, but I feel like you need to bring it up again because the question is being brought up a lot with this year's strong running back class. There are many reasons why I think adjusting for something like this will do more harm than good. One of those reasons that we're not always right about the depth of the position or the depth of a class. We generally have a good idea of which classes are good and which ones aren't, at least by the time the draft rules around. But none of these guys have actually played in the NFL yet. We don't have a concrete, no doubt idea. I mean, even when we have seen them play, the way we view a class in totality is gonna be subjective. Now, another thing to point out here is that teams don't necessarily draft this way, and we don't know if they are drafting this way. Like it may be intuitive for us to sit back and say, why would a team draft a mari and Hampton in like round one when they get Jarquez Hunter and round five or something like that, And I wouldn't even disagree with that, But in terms of changing a process up within a model, how exactly are you going to measure something like that? I would also argue that we don't have that much evidence for any of this being a thing. Usually when draft capital is lower, it's warranted. If you look at draft data going back to twenty eleven, there were two seasons where we had four top one hundred running back picks with one or fewer round one selection. So running backs weren't drafted in these two drafts very high at all. One of those was in twenty sixteen, the other twenty twenty four. Just last year. The twenty sixteen draft had Ezekiel Elliott fourth overall. And then Derrick Henry went forty fifth overall, Kenyan Drake was seventy third overall, and then the only other player in that entire class who did anything of significance was Jordan Howard, who was a Day three pick. The class as a whole wasn't very good. It wasn't very deep. Last year we had no first round picks, and then we had Jonathan Brooks in round two, and then Trey Benson, Blake korm and Marshawn Lloyd in round three. Now, Bucky Irving looks like a hit, but the class is really rough overall. It's probably the worst running back class over the last fifteen or so years. So in those cases, draft capital was generally correct. And if the argument is that teams will wait on running back when there's a deep class, wouldn't that mean that a team would reach on a top running back when it's not a deep class. Like Derrick Henry went forty fifth overall in that draft, there's no reaching going on there. Last year we didn't see Trey Benson get round two draft capital in what was objectively a weaker class. We still only saw one round two running back. Teams weren't really reaching for these guys. I just don't think there's enough evidence that any of this is happening. Now. I'm sure it does on the micro level, but on the macro level, teams all have different evaluations and ways of approaching the draft. It's smarter to not overthink these types of factors and complicate a model, because, like I said earlier, that could do far more harm than good. This has questions from Zach It says, love the show. Thanks. As I've been preparing for our rookie draft, I keep coming across analysts that are touting Dallas as an elite running back landing spot. Is this actually the case based off of the build of Dallas as a rushing offense or is it based off of the history of the organization. Basically, my question is, are we chasing God of rushing offenses passed or is Dallas actually an elite landing spot for a running back? Thanks so much, Zach. Look, I think this is just based on the fact that the current Dallas Cowboys depth chart includes two cooked veterans and Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. That's about it. When we're talking about good landing spots. The thing we're most concerned about, first and foremost is competition. Like Atlanta's not a good landing spot right now because b Jon Robinson is gonna be there for at least another two years. Anyone drafted there would be a handcuff. When a depth chart is wide open, like it is in Dallas or like it is in Vegas, that's when fantasy managers are rightfully excited. Not only that, but Dallas at least has the quarterback at the moment. The quality of competition matters most for these running backs when we're talking about landing spot, and then obviously that then includes things like how long existing established backs will be there based on their contracts and so on and so forth. I'm not saying you ignore infrastructure and offensive line playing, quarterback playing all that. I'm saying the reason we should care about the running back in Dallas is because there are like fifteen running backs in this year's draft class who could go there and immediately have a shot to be their RB one. And at the end of the day, volume is what drives this game. The last question this week is from at A Crow three p sixty on Twitter says, what guys do you see falling lower than expected, and guys you see going higher than expected causing the biggest flux in rookie drafts. There's also a question from at Larry by A three five three H six two eight. It says, who is a guy you think will be the biggest riser from pre to post NFL draft. So I'll finish today's show by kind of comparing contrasting the dynasty market versus what I see happening in the mock draft world. One player that stands out to me as someone in the dynasty community might be underrating just based on potential draft capital is Jack Besh. I think Besch is at least an interesting prospect who's had a really unique journey to the league. He looks kind of average in the model, but there's still a lot to like about his profile. You look on Keep Trade Cut and Besh is getting drafted after Xavier Ristrepo quinn Ewers, and this is single quarterback league stuff, well below Jalen Royals and elk Eyamanner. I think he could easily end up getting better draft capital than all of the players that I just mentioned. So my guess is that Jack Besh is someone who might actually be of value in rookie drafts if you're doing drafts immediately after the NFL Draft before things sort of recalibrate. I also think the dynasty market might have the tight end landscape wrong. You have Harold Fannin and Elijah Royo as like the clear very clear tight end three and tight end four in this class. Like Fannin right now has a startup ADP of tight end thirty two according to keep Trade Cut, Arroyo is tight end thirty four. Meanwhile Mason Taylor is tight end fifty one. Terrence Ferguson is tight end sixty two. Tight End sixty two is absolutely wild to me. Now, maybe that has something to do with the functionality of the website and how they're gathering their information, but regardless, I don't think that Harold Fannin and Elijah Arroyo should be that far ahead of Mason Taylor and Terrence Ferguson. Mason Taylor is getting tocked up to almost the first round right now, and I think Terrence Ferguson has a shot at least a shot to be drafted ahead of both the Royo and Fannin, and I hope that happens because the zap Model really likes Ferguson, but that's one market that I do think is really wonky. And then at running back, I think the risers are basically gonna be the guys who end up getting Day two draft capital. Now, looking at ADP, I think Bashall Tuton he's one of the more interesting ones because a team could very, very easily fall in love with his speed. And then there's like a DJ Giddins who's really athletic too, And I actually think teams might take more of a chance than we're expecting on players who are more of like the speedy change of pace pass catchers like Aiden Blue or Berchhard Smith. So those are some players I think could shift in rookie drafts just based on draft capital and there being a disconnect between where people are ranking them and the projected draft capital. But we'll know a lot more in just a couple of days. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB thanks for listening. Everyone enjoy the draft, and I hope you really enjoy the updated Prospect Guide that's going to drop on Saturday. I'll talk to you next week.