Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:03
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not feeling great about that Lions to the super Bowl prediction.

00:00:10
Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal.

00:00:11
Speaker 1: Here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for our weekly pick segment. It used to be called man versus Machine, but we thought that was unfair to Cynthia, who is a living, breathing woman with emotions, says she's not a machine.

00:00:30
Speaker 3: Emotions. Where are those?

00:00:31
Speaker 1: Your computer model doesn't have emotions? And that's what really is nailing these picks for you week after week. It was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy. I even rode with them last week against the Packers. That's one of the reasons why I have a losing record so far on the season. I went one and two, and yes, if you're watching on YouTube, we love you the YouTube audience big for this show. On one and two, Cynthia, you went two and one. I had the line. As I mentioned, I also lost on the Giants. Terrible pick there. My Jaguars came through for me. You were on both sides of crazy comebacks. You got the bills to help you out, but the Bears let you down in the fourth quarter, and then you also had the bucks.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: So you start off two.

00:01:16
Speaker 1: In one and then I do scribble all those yeah, you know teams that the app. Last week the scribbles went three and two. We're going to keep track unofficially.

00:01:23
Speaker 3: Well, scribbles are like where it's at.

00:01:26
Speaker 1: Last year, the scribbles were good. Those were the extra picks. Today I only have two extra picks. I want to start with you, though, you get to go first because, as everyone knows, your model nailed the Super Bowl prediction before a year ago. You won this competition a year ago, and you went too and one last week, so you go.

00:01:40
Speaker 3: For and my super Bowl picks won their first games. So that's good.

00:01:44
Speaker 2: Well was it this year?

00:01:45
Speaker 3: Lls over Eagles?

00:01:46
Speaker 2: Okay?

00:01:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I mean.

00:01:47
Speaker 2: Those defense got something to work.

00:01:49
Speaker 3: I feel great about it. But they're they're both one and o. Then that's all I care about, you know, one one week at a time. Greg, Okay, let let's start. I'm going to see spicy.

00:02:00
Speaker 2: I want to me.

00:02:01
Speaker 3: Look, I'm gonna keep this one pretty pretty boring and neutral. I think Cincinnati as three and a half is not I don't like the half. I don't care. I have them winning by six. You know, I'm a pretty conservative modeler, so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks.

00:02:21
Speaker 1: When you say you're a conservative model, or maybe explain to the listeners what that means.

00:02:26
Speaker 3: So you can put a lot of volatility into when you when you model in code like this, you can put a lot of volatility into it, like you can wait different things in with give it lots of different weights, so it could you know, like, oh, you know, you know, what's a good example when you watch some some other networks have like the the win probability sure, and when you see a win probability go from ninety nine to the other team winning more than once in like a lot a lot of games, then they're modeling not conservatively enough.

00:02:56
Speaker 2: They're a little loose.

00:02:58
Speaker 3: They're they're playing fast and loose with their model fast because it really should. If something really is ninety nine percent.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: Your numbers are tight.

00:03:04
Speaker 1: That's why when we pick all the games and all the scores on Game Debut, which is on Apple Network every Friday, it's very rare for you to have more than a ten point game.

00:03:12
Speaker 2: You always have it, you know, pretty close.

00:03:14
Speaker 1: And that makes sense because if you run all the outcomes that I said, this is going to be the first time this year and I do not like doing this. Who were on the other side, but I only had two picks that I was definitely taking. My model is extremely valatable. It's vibes based. No, it's it's eyeball test based. It's how I believe in the teams and the players and what I've seen based and that all leads me, with no statistical modeling, to picking the Jags plus three and a half. Now, your model takes emotion out of the equation. Maybe I'm just too happy that the Jags gave me an easy Sunday a week ago when I took them over the Panthers. You're like, take a more interesting game. No, we want winners. I think one of us is going to be a winner on this one. I think they guarantee one of us wins.

00:03:58
Speaker 2: That is true.

00:03:59
Speaker 1: It's unfortunate we're guaranteeing a one in one between the two of us because I want a spolt to do well. I thought they were cohesive in terms of their running game. When I watched their offensive line, I thought Oh wow. That is a really well coached offensive group who struggled last year running the ball and their offensive line struggled, and week one you could see it. And then on the other side of the ball, I see really good pass rushers Josh Heinz, Allen Trayvon Walker, you got arc Armstead in the middle. And I see a Bengals offensive line that didn't play great last week. The Bengals offense in general wasn't great. I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you don't have to do that here, but that extra half a point, don't you have a like a slang word for that.

00:04:40
Speaker 2: The hook? The hook?

00:04:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it hooked me like that extra half a point. It's like, okay, I'm making this one of my picks because I think they can win.

00:04:49
Speaker 2: Straight up.

00:04:49
Speaker 1: I think these two teams are relatively even. I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.

00:04:55
Speaker 3: Wow, Okay, well, I mean look here here are I'll just give you my quick points on why my mole's on the other side of that number one Jamar Chase in games when when he's following not having an output a sub thirty yard output. It's like one hundred and thirteen yards as his.

00:05:15
Speaker 2: Average and the following game.

00:05:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, the following and not to say and that's not the reason for it, it's because of what that actually means. It means they rethink the game plan, they go back to the drawing board. Plans BCD didn't work. I still saw something that was great with that Noah offense touchdown from Joe Brow. It was a blitz. It was on a blitz, and Joe Burrow was still incredible against the blitz. So this is something where they started slow. They always start slow, we get it, but.

00:05:44
Speaker 2: They were trying not to this year.

00:05:45
Speaker 1: It's all they ever talked about in the preseason, all this stuff, and then they come out and they add one hundred and under one hundred and fifty yards against the Browns and saky puppies.

00:05:54
Speaker 3: We get it.

00:05:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's part of that is part of my reasoning. And I don't know how much your model is obvious baking in their historical greatness on offense overall compared to just what you saw Week one, or maybe their historic struggles early in the year.

00:06:10
Speaker 2: I am leaning a little.

00:06:11
Speaker 1: Bit on what I saw by the Jaguars defense, and it might end up being misleading because they were playing the Panthers, but what I saw out of them was a creative group with Anthony Campanile is the new defense coordinator, and I just like what I saw Jordan Lewis and Tyson Campbell. I think their secondaries not great, but it might not be a big negative like it used to be in one.

00:06:33
Speaker 3: Way to look real stupid with your secondary play Jamar Chase T. Higgins and company.

00:06:38
Speaker 2: That's like this there.

00:06:39
Speaker 3: You know, I'm not suggesting that they're not good, but I think we saw maybe over index of looking very good last week, and now they're probably gonna I mean.

00:06:50
Speaker 2: They're gonna come back to the past.

00:06:51
Speaker 1: All I need is this Jaguars running game, which I think is gonna be good against a pretty lackluster Bengals defense. In my mind, all I gotta need is just to keep keep up in it in a little bit of a score fest. So it could be twenty seven to twenty fourd you know what, even if the time is win, that hook I win.

00:07:10
Speaker 2: So we'll see.

00:07:11
Speaker 3: I hope it comes down to three, because that's just funny. If I'm gonna lose, I only want to lose my third like if it's up, if it's on the hook.

00:07:16
Speaker 1: All right, So that's why we've already knocked that one pick each crazy you go, you go for your second pick.

00:07:22
Speaker 3: Okay.

00:07:23
Speaker 1: So I'm just trying to decide how spicy to be here because I know we had our production meeting for our game days. Sure it gives it away our picks a little bit, but these are these should be your favorites. You don't need to go spicy. Do the ones you're the most confident, no matter who they are.

00:07:37
Speaker 3: I mean, if I'm going most no, because that's then I'm picking things. No, no, No, We're gonna We're gonna pick somes that I like the most. How about that?

00:07:44
Speaker 2: Sure?

00:07:44
Speaker 3: I think New England wins interesting beats Miami interest. So if you're gonna want to give me a point and a half, I will take that point and a half because Miami favorite at home by one and a half point. New England. Listen, I picked them last week. They burned me. But so weird things happened. One Drake may took conservatively. I think he threw the ball like three hundred and fifty five times Twitter seven passing yards. He had the most passing attempts that he that we've seen him have. We didn't see him us as like seven seven rushing yards seven rushing yards. So maybe maybe the theme is seven because the Bengals had seven yards of offense and the second happen, I'm making them and Drake May had seven rushing yards in this last matchup. But this is something where yards off of scrambles are something where Drake May, you know, between I think it was week week eight and or we eight and eighteen or me, he literally led the league in scrambling yards whenever he whence he became the starter last year? So I think we used number one that number two the swing pass to Traveon Henderson. What does Josh McDaniels love to do? Swing pass, swing pass, swing? But that's all we ever see. Why didn't we see those last week? I don't know Travan Hunderson can catch the ball. I think they figure out a way to make the run game, even if it's a run by proxy of short passes, fine, still short yardage game. I think it's gonna be much approved.

00:09:02
Speaker 1: Look, I'm on your side with this one, and it wasn't gonna be one of my picks just because.

00:09:06
Speaker 3: These are on my side.

00:09:07
Speaker 2: Team.

00:09:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's winning.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: I mean I have New England winning.

00:09:09
Speaker 3: Yes, I mean it's great news.

00:09:13
Speaker 2: I mean this is great news. Is it really?

00:09:14
Speaker 1: I went on into last week with the other if you count the extras, you know, is it?

00:09:18
Speaker 3: He did great?

00:09:18
Speaker 2: Five? I think it's so. Their running game really struggled last week.

00:09:22
Speaker 1: I think that was part of the reason why Drake May just looked a little jumpy uneven.

00:09:27
Speaker 2: I don't know if it was due May.

00:09:29
Speaker 3: Watch that Daniel Jones Daniel Jones fotash like two rushing touchdowns for Daniel Jones, I can at least score one.

00:09:36
Speaker 1: I think he could. And that Dolphins defense has a lot of talent in it. There's a lot going on with this Dolphins team. My issue only with this game was just these two teams. I don't know what to make of them early, and so I'm just gonna stay anyway.

00:09:51
Speaker 2: I believe though, in a different team in that division, the Jets.

00:09:55
Speaker 3: The Jets, you think they win, I mean, they just keep it closer.

00:10:00
Speaker 1: Than what they are. They are underdogs. That's six and a half points, six and.

00:10:05
Speaker 2: A half points.

00:10:07
Speaker 1: I believe, justin fields looked so good last week. He was calm, he was accurate, he was composed, and their running game was destroying the Pittsburgh freaking Steelers like pre Saul eighteen yards, pre Saul fourteen yards.

00:10:25
Speaker 2: I love them up front. What did the Bills do last week?

00:10:28
Speaker 1: I know they were playing the Baltimore Ravens, but they gave up two hundred and thirty eight yards on the ground. Many I think they were They've been searching on defense throughout training camp and the preseason for players in the back end, especially that can hold up in terms of the safety position and tougher players in terms of stopping the run. If I could pick almost any other team in the AFC, they wouldn't want to see this week. It's the running and maybe even a little gunning New York Jets. Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two. I'm already like trying to chase you on the picks.

00:11:04
Speaker 2: I don't know why.

00:11:05
Speaker 1: I know they're almost a touchdown underdog that you could do, you know, with the odds and whatnot. Take them to win over on you know, straight up. But I feel really good this this show is only about the number six and a half points for this Jets team. I'm not overly confident in the Jets defense at all. I think it's gonna be a high scoring game where where both running games get a lot done.

00:11:27
Speaker 2: I think the Jets keep it close.

00:11:28
Speaker 3: James Cook is streaking, right, He's had five games in a row with a rushing touch out. No, I'm just curious if you think he gets an ansome Yeah, yeah, I think he keeps said streaking.

00:11:36
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is awesome, and you talked about that last week a lot with the Tiris, Torrents and the continuity.

00:11:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's underrated.

00:11:44
Speaker 1: Because people are like, you know, Josh Allen's making it happen with this ragtag group around him. In terms of the receiver, first of all, again Coleman's a first round pick, like early second like he's getting better.

00:11:55
Speaker 2: Clear secure is good.

00:11:57
Speaker 3: I mean nine of them each. They had nine targets all three of their main wide receivers, nine tarists.

00:12:02
Speaker 1: But yeah, I would point out like that offensive line is a weapon, and if so, it's kind of like Mahomes three years ago, in that first year without Tyreek Hill. You give a quarterback at the peak of his powers, a great offensive line. You don't necessarily need incredible weapons, and that's why Jets to win the game doesn't feel like amazing. But I think the Steelers were very lucky to win that game last week. I think the Jets have something a little special and they're going to be fighting hard to avoid that zero and two start to this season.

00:12:27
Speaker 2: So I believe in my New York Jets. I've adopted them.

00:12:31
Speaker 3: Adopted them.

00:12:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I had them going to the playoffs as my seventh seed. This is something the model wouldn't do, which is get too attached to your preseason.

00:12:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, you think that's that's the thing, like sometimes, I mean, listen, attachment is a big deal. But and it's fun. It's why we become fans. But you have to be able to separate your picks from your attachment. Otherwise, you know, we're gonna have to take all your little chips and pull them off.

00:12:53
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, but if you but just look at the numbers from a week ago.

00:12:58
Speaker 3: I'm not saying the Jets aren't great, but I'm saying you can't overly you know, you have to, like, let next play, every every player will tell you whether it's good or yeah, you can't use let you know, you just got to be it's gotta be, you know, disciplined, the discipline of of of chill.

00:13:13
Speaker 1: The Jets what they put on the field last week as a product to me, that looked like a seven seed type of team for what it's worth. And this is just the numbers d v O A. You know, I think you respect dv o A. But maybe it's I you know, I'm not. It's a rivalry a little bit there in the numbers game, trying to argue they got the Gets as the tenth best team after last week and the Bills were down in the twenties.

00:13:35
Speaker 3: Example, Sea, it's I like, I like your conviction. I'm not saying not to be a fan. I'm just saying to separate is fan time from this is math t Yeah, that's it. That's all that. I have to say that to myself too. I have to code this stuff without any names on it, because teams that pay me money, like the freaking Broncos in the preseas, I tend to like them better.

00:13:58
Speaker 2: Right now we're getting the real stuff.

00:14:01
Speaker 3: But I love this, But but I have to do it with things I feel very agnostic towards That's how I code it. So I don't know if this year because I'm a psychopath, it's different types of dogs, huh so, And I do have thoughts on that, but I'm not you know, the Yorky beating that whatever, you know, the German Shepherd. I'm going to take the German Shepherd.

00:14:18
Speaker 1: And I do think and you'll see this with my next pick too, well you want mind pick yet I do. I do think there is something about the you know, the team's trying to avoid be you know, and one the bills are coming off like a historic, amazing win at home.

00:14:32
Speaker 2: Is there is there any little not trap?

00:14:34
Speaker 1: But just is that like I did a little more emotional, you know, like it's a little bit of a letdown.

00:14:39
Speaker 2: All right, give me your last pick.

00:14:40
Speaker 3: All right, Well we talked about how I get emotional about teams. There's these two teams that have actually emotions on both sides that I like. I love the Broncos luet Arumo is one of my very favorite humans. Like ever, so they're playing.

00:14:53
Speaker 1: Each other like how high on the list? I mean, that's a lot humanity. I mean I don't really like a lot of so pop thirty.

00:15:01
Speaker 2: Oh for clue. Oh wow, yeah, so he's above me.

00:15:04
Speaker 3: No, he's not above you.

00:15:07
Speaker 1: I would like to see that ranking because you know, thirty thirties, that's that's pretty lofty praise.

00:15:11
Speaker 2: All right, but what does that mean you're picking him?

00:15:13
Speaker 3: No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points. The reason, just like you talked about, it's the two and a half to me Bnicks four turnovers. Now you're talking about Sean Payton. What does Sean Payton? What do you think happened to bo Nicks after turning the ball over that many times last game? I'm gonna guess it wasn't pretty.

00:15:32
Speaker 2: It just started running the ball essentially, you mean in the game.

00:15:34
Speaker 3: Or like when they were watching it back on the Like. My point is is there's a reason why some of these Hall of Fame court coaches keep their jobs for so long. It's because they don't like these are the types of things like this crap doesn't happen again, Like it doesn't now. Mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in this game, and it's not close. And the second reason, Sharvarius war it is very unlikely to play, which helps Bonick's ability.

00:16:03
Speaker 2: To not turn the ball, and that's entered into the model.

00:16:06
Speaker 3: No ward at this point injuries. Right now it's ward fifty percent because I don't know if he's going to play or not. I can switch it closer to the time. But even with a ward one hundred percent, it's still three points in favor of the Broncos.

00:16:18
Speaker 1: I would put word at close to zero percent at this point because if you miss practice early in the I'm just saying you're in the protocol, so that's even more in your favor. Yeah, I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all. Likes the cult story.

00:16:33
Speaker 3: I think they're of course you felt like the cold story too.

00:16:35
Speaker 1: I think the defense is going to be difficult for teams to go against if you're much improved. But ultimately I agreed with every single point that you made, so I just won't repeat it. But that defense, yeah, we'll see it. We'll see how real the Danny Dimes renaissance is. Okay, So I wrote down sometimes I got a lot of games I really like. Yep, sometimes I just have four that was this week. So I gave you my top two.

00:17:01
Speaker 3: Four is the minimum?

00:17:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, well no, I don't know. Three. No, some weeks it's like two, and you're really forcing it. This time.

00:17:08
Speaker 1: I have really four I really liked, and then there was a pretty big yep gap. There's like one more I'll throw in there. But so maybe you can help me because I'm curious which side of either the Falcons plus three and a half or the Seahawks plus three year on. And you might be opposite me on both of these, but I like them both for different reasons.

00:17:32
Speaker 2: I'm leaning towards the Falcons one. Actually I have both of those. Yeah, you agree with me?

00:17:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the one I would technically agree with you, like looking at my model right now. The one I technically agree with you more on is what is it? Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota winning by three, so I close if that's a hook there, But then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only, so I technically agree with you a little bit more on Seattle very close though extremely I mean, we're this is tricky.

00:18:03
Speaker 1: Because I'm gonna go with my gut and go with that extra half point. The hook is getting me again, and go with the Falcons plus three and a half as my official third pick. I like both these games, though for different reasons. I'll run through them both because that would have been one of my written down.

00:18:18
Speaker 3: Yeah A to the extra game, which means it's going.

00:18:21
Speaker 2: To hit okay.

00:18:23
Speaker 1: I think their quarterback is better right now Atlanta. You know Michael Pennox versus JJ McCarthy. I just think he's more mature. He's showed more. We'll see where McCarthy is. I think the Atlanta secondary showed me a little something in Week one that I'm excited about.

00:18:37
Speaker 2: A couple of rookies, Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts.

00:18:40
Speaker 1: Xavier Watts really played well in that game, and I thought aj Rell was kind of looking peak aj Terrell. He's a guy who had an all Pro season, but he's had injuries. He struggled a little bit last week. I thought he looked awesome against the Bucks.

00:18:52
Speaker 2: He did.

00:18:53
Speaker 1: That was a game where if you play that game over the way it played out, like the numbers would tell you that the Falcons really outplayed the Bucks. But they ended up losing that game. And then this is the dumb part of me why I'm leaning towards it. I do sometimes look at the two teams and just think, well, they look like one to one teams to me. You know, neither one of these teams deserve to be zero and two. Neither one of these teams deserve to be two and oh. And we see this a lot in the NFL, that a lot of times teams respond well to losses. And so three and a half points is what does it for me. I don't really feel strong about the Falcons winning in particular, but I like that three and a half points based on everything I saw Raheem Morris year two with his defense they cover.

00:19:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm.

00:19:37
Speaker 3: With you on that. My my asterisks on this one that just like the little note that could adjust it, but would adjust more in favor of Atlanta is if we see the health of like a Is Darnell movie.

00:19:50
Speaker 1: He sounds like he's playing right, he's practicing. We don't know for sure, but that's you know, it's a good one. Again, that's just an asterisk, but it just reinforces your point. And no Blake Cashman for the Vikings, that is confirmed. He's on in deserve and I think that could be a problematic spot for them. It's like I've in pace and you could attack the middle of the field there. Kyle Pitts look pretty good. Seattle to me is more of a I just think they match up well. I think all those zone runs that Jets had against the Steelers last week, the Seahawks can do that. I think the pass rush against Aaron Rodgers, who did a lot of really good things last week, but he didn't handle the pass rush well at all. He took four sacks and and kind of was panicked when he was under pressure. I think they could get pressed by right. So three points. I really liked that game too. Like I said, I liked for a lot this week. But I will go with Atlanta officially as my as my third in the Seattle plus three as my little extra. And uh, just because I'm feeling generous to the listeners, Brown's eleven and a half, I'll take. I'll take the Browns to cover that eleven and a half. I'm feeling a little spicy.

00:20:48
Speaker 3: I thought they like Joe Flecko.

00:20:51
Speaker 1: I mean, you're going to try to bring the Browns in the organization you ripped away from, like one of the best football towns in the world, and you do your thirtieth anniversary of the franchise celebration with everyone coming in on the day the Browns come into town. I mean, that's certainly intentional. And I see you and I think that's bad football. God juju. I mean it's definitely something like a model can account for that.

00:21:20
Speaker 3: No, the model doesn't know what that means. But but ultimately, I mean I didn't realize they were doing that. Yeah, it's it's who's in charge over there.

00:21:29
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a rivalry. But that's honestly part of the reason why I like the Browns in this game. I thought their rookies looked great last week, and I just think they're going to be a little better this season. And it's a divisional matchup where there's a lot of familiarity and so.

00:21:42
Speaker 2: Hey, it's a lot weak.

00:21:43
Speaker 3: They were in a half Allens and and the Ravens have had vulnerability to twelve personnel to who tied in sets. So there are there are reasons to support your findings.

00:21:52
Speaker 1: Little Harold fan and junior action. And yeah, I also his name is Harold.

00:21:56
Speaker 3: I love that. I don't know why. I don't know anyone named Harold, But I like, I love the idea that his name is Harry.

00:22:01
Speaker 1: I love that he's a forty four playing tight end and full back. There aren't many true like they call people jokers, Like he's a real joker. He's moving in every position. I saw him blow open a hole on a touchdown run on the goal and that was cool. That was why he was one of my winners on the Extra Picks last week plus five and a half. All right, that's enough, we got to get down for our show game debut. You can check out Cynthia on her YouTube page numbers game each and every week if you want even more picks from Cynthia really getting deep into the numbers every single game. And she's got a new show too with CBS analyst Logan Ryan.

00:22:39
Speaker 2: So everyone Logan's great.

00:22:40
Speaker 1: Check out that Logan is really really good on the broadcast. I listen and with you that is it. We will hopefully do even better for all.

00:22:50
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:22:51
Speaker 1: Well, this week it'll be the last time to hear from us in the feed until Sunday.

00:22:56
Speaker 2: Night when we are back a recap show is.

00:23:00
Speaker 3: The buildings here now?

00:23:02
Speaker 2: No, I will be staying until Sunday night.

00:23:05
Speaker 1: Got it? For all those games, we Jordan, rod rig Patrick Clayborne and nixt Ship see you Sunday night.