279: Week 2 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachariesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com, in this episode two hundred and seventy nine of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Week one is always a tough one for analyzing matchups, but I don't think things were horrible last week on the show. I whiffed on t Y Hilton, Jimmy Garoppolo looked really bad, and I should have known better than to think New England's backfield touches would be predictable in week one. But things were good too. I talked up Matthew Stafford, I talked down Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, and I had Danny Amandola as a deep sleeper. With more information, these matchups will become a little bit easier to dissect, and hopefully that's the case as early as right now. Before looking at the players this week, who I'm higher and lower on versus consensus, I wanted to let you guys know that fandal is giving you another chance at one million dollars this Sunday. This week's Sunday Million is nine dollars to enter, and the top prize is one million dollars. There are three million dollars in total prizes on the line, so head to Fandel dot com right now for a chance at some life changing money. Eligibility restrictions do apply. Let's kick things off at quarterback this week, and specifically a streaming quarterback option, and that's Derek Carr. Carr gets Kansas City this week, a team that's coming off a game where they allowed three hundred and forty seven passing yards to the combination of Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew. Ninety percent of football fans had no idea there was a player with a named Gardner Minshew in the league before last week. The Chiefs faced the most pass attempts in football last year, so you have sort of a baseline for Car. But Carr himself has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last two home games against Kansas City. He also looks pretty comfortable throwing the rock around on Monday night. So Carr to me is pretty undervalued this week, and he should be a very firm QB two and potentially a higher end one. As I said on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, I also like Josh Allen as a streamer here in Week two. Allen's now hit fifteen or more rushing yards in every start in the NFL, and he's averaged well over fifty rushing yards per game as a starter. That's essentially an extra touchdown pass cushion each week for fantasy purposes, and he gets the Giants this week. The g Men looked awful defensively against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Week one, and what I like to see was that they were tied for third worst in the league and giving up fifteen plus air yard plays. And what does Josh Allen like to do. He likes to throw the ball deep. So I like Josh Allen this week, and while I won't talk about him on today's show, I think John Brown could be in store for another strong game as well. The last quarterback start for me in Week two as someone who's a clear bounce back candidate in my opinion, and that's Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has traditionally performed throughout his career far better at home than on the road, and this matchup against the Seahawks is pretty juicy. We just watched Andy Dalton throw for a career high four hundred and eighteen yards against them. Last week saw a neutral game script, too, meaning the Bengals game planned around trying to beat the Seattle pass defense, and they did a pretty good job at doing so. All things considered, I'd expect the Steelers to do the same and for Ben Roethlisberger to put together a strong performance. The biggest disappointment at quarterback in Week one was probably Jameis Winston. He was horrible. He was terrible, and I'm worried about him on Thursday Night against the Panthers. It's not because I think the Panthers have a fantastic secondary. It's because, well, first off, I don't typically like playing road quarterbacks on Thursday night, but I'm very worried about what that Panthers defensive line can do against that Tampa Bay offensive line. I'm worried about Jameis Winston under pressure. In Week one, only Ben Roethlisberger was hurried more than Jameis Winston, but Roethlisberger was also blitzed thirteen times when Winston was blitzed just four times, which was one of the fewer marks in the league. After that Week one performance, I just don't know how you can trust Jameis Winston right now, especially with pretty good waiver wire options this week, like Derek Carr and Josh Allen. And as much as I love Kyler Murray and this Arizona Cardinals offense, I'd be avoiding them as much as I could this week. Arizona's the second biggest underdog on the slate and they'll be in Baltimore to face a really good Ravens secondary, arguably the best secondary in football, and as a result, Arizona's implied team total is only better than Miami's this week. Again, with other options likely on your waiver wire, there's no need to force it. You don't need to start Kyler Murray at running back this week. I think was Shaw McCoy is a flex play, if not a low end RB two. McCoy played less than half the number of snaps as Damian Williams played in Week one, but he's also not been on the team very long, and he also looked pretty damn good In the end. McCoy had a rushing success rate, which is the percentage of positive expected points runs made by a running back according to number fires expected Points model, but he had a success rate of seventy percent. Damian Williams was at about a forty six percent. I think we should expect the workload to favor McCoy more and more in the coming weeks, and with a potential positive game script against Oakland, he's an interesting play, but do know that for him to hit a real ceiling, he's gonna have to see more work in the red zone. Damian Williams dominated there against the Jags with four carries and two carries within the ten. If you want a deeper play than McCoy, you could look at Carlos Hide. And I can't believe that I'm saying that, but I'm saying that now. I do think that people seem to be overstating the impact that Hide may be having on Duke Johnson. In Week one against the Saints, Hide played seventeen fewer snaps and only saw one target. He was effective on the ground when they gave him the ball. But I'm not all that interested in players who don't have a significant receiving role. Now, with that being said, This is somewhat of a deeper play, so we can excuse flaws in a player's profile. Houston is at home and they're facing Jacksonville and Gardner Minshew, so we could see a positive game script, which would mean a good bit of rushing, and that's where Carlos Hide, who's more of the bruiser in that backfield, comes into play. The big question mark with Hyde is whether or not he's going to see goal line touches. We didn't get a sense of what that split might look like in Week one because the Texans didn't run the ball at the goal line. Oh, Duke Johnson did see a target within the ten. But if you're hurting, or if you're just in a deep league, I think going Hyde's way isn't the worst idea in the world. I also think Chris Thompson is a little bit interesting this week against Dallas. In a PPR format, I would definitely be playing Thompson over Adrian Peterson, but Peterson's ranked ahead of him on Fantasy Pros right now, so I'd go Thompson over ap because of the probable game flow of this game and the fact that Thompson saw over twenty three percent of Washington's targets in Week one, and that wasn't even in a game that saw them trail on a ton of plays. They ran twenty six plays while trailing against Philadelphia. That was a below average number across the league in Week one. So without Darius Guys, Thompson's going to have some role in this offense as a pass catcher, and I like his floor ceiling combo a lot more than Adrian Peterson's as a result. Now, remember this show is more about process than anything else. You may not have these players, but you can at least hear some of the things that I care about when I'm looking at whether I should start or sit a certain guy. But let's move on to the players that I don't like as much as the consensus this week. And let's start with the Denver backfield. That ugly, ugly Denver backfield. Royce Freeman is basically Carlos Hide in that backfield with Philip Lindsay as the Duke Johnson. But it's even uglier because there's more of a split and snap share and things are a lot worse there because Denver's offense is worse than Houston's, and considering they're playing against Chicago this week. It's just tough to get behind those backs. The Bear is in a pretty neutral game script last week allowed the six fewest rushing yards in the league, and that came with the second best yards per attempt against. The matchup is just tough for Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman this week. They should find your bench. I was a little surprised to see Kenyan Drake ranked as an RB three and PPR formats this week because this Miami offense and team really it's just not very good. I understand that Drake is the primary pass catching back there, and he was the backfield snap leader in Week one, but he still walked away from that game with a sub ten percent target share. There's nothing wrong with a nine percent share through the air as a running back, but someone in Drake's position is gonna need to be force fed in order to be fantasy relevant. And against the New England defense that looked really good against Pittsburgh, I think that Drake can find your bench. It also looks like I'm a lot lower than Justin Jackson than most Detroit's defensive line is good, and Jackson played just a quarter of the Chargers snaps. In Week one. That backfield was dominated by Austin Eckler. Eckler had over twenty one percent of the team's targets and he accounted for sixty percent of the running back rushes. Justin Jackson had just a thirty percent running back rushing share. So with the Eckler usage and the matchup, you can leave Jackson on your bench in Week two. Let's talk about Tyler Lockett. He had two targets on Sunday, but in typical Tyler Lockett form, he caught one for a touchdown. The Seahawks only threw the ball twenty times, but that's still not a good target share. But I expect things to pick up for him in Week two because in Week one, over sixty five percent of Tyler Lockett's snaps were from the slot. The Steelers, his opponent in Week two, were arguably the worst team in football against slot receivers last year, at least from a raw production standpoint, and against New England last week. Pittsburgh allowed three touchdowns from receivers lined up in the slot, and about forty six percent of New England's targets went to slot receivers in week one that was the second highest rate in the league. For Tyler Lockett to go nuts this week, then the Seahawks are going to have to throw the ball more than they did in Week one, and with them on the road against Pittsburgh, that's very possible. So I like Tyler Lockett a lot this week. The other three wide receivers that I want to talk about today that I'm higher on versus the consensus, they're all rookies. The first one is Terry McLaurin. At the time of this recording, McLaurin is currently being ranked as wide receiver fifty on Fantasy pros Now. I wasn't a McLaurin fan when he was entering the league, but I've got new information now. He looked good, really good, and I'm adjusting my stance, and I don't think that I'm over adjusting the stance. I really think that he should be in wide receiver three territory almost weekly at this point because of the volume that he could see in that Washington offense. In Week one, McLaurin saw over sixteen percent of Washington's targets, and he had an average at the target that was twice as large as anyone else's on the team. Based on that alone, he's a wide receiver three or flex plan on PPR formats moving forward, because Washington is likely to throw the ball a good bit this year because they're going to see a lot of negative game scripts. So Terry McLaurin can absolutely find your lineup. I at least like him better than wide receiver fifty. I also think that you can start Marquise Hollywood Brown. Of course, his snapshare is concerning. He was only on the field for like a dozen snaps in Week one, but that number should only rise as the season moves forward. And we know that Brown is a deep ball thread. We saw that in Week one and Arizona in Week one got torched by the deep ball. Matthew Stafford threw at fifteen or more air yards on over twenty eight percent of his pass attempts against them, which was the third highest rate in the league, and Arizona allowed five catches on those types of throws, tied for the third most in the NFL. So don't be surprised if Hollywood Brown can do work again this week against this bad Cardinals secondary. Now the final rookie is me col Hardman. I was surprised that he wasn't as highly sought after as some of the other waiver ads this week, but the peripherals are absolutely there for him. He only saw one target in Week one against Jacksonville, but he played as the team's second receiver. He's the second wide receiver on a Patrick Mahomes led team. He ran the second most routes behind Sammy Watkins, and he played the second most snaps. So yes, I'm going to invest in the number two wide receivers in a Kansas City Chiefs offense with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and it's a player who basically profiles as a discount. Tyreek Hill and his production could start this week against a very beatable Oakland secondary. Two wide receivers who are typically good plays but I'm down on this week are Emmanuel Sanders, my man Baby Tron Kenny Galladay. With Sanders, it's the Chicago defense. I'm not gonna want to play guys against Chicago, let alone if that player isn't playing that much in the slot. And in Week one that was Dayshan Hamilton's role and that's gonna be his role throughout the season. Chicago has two great perimeter corners, and I want nothing to do with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton for that matter. As a result, and then with Kenny Galladay, he's likely to be shadowed by Casey Hayward. Now that was part of the reason that I didn't like Ty Hilton last week. But Hayward still only allowed three catches for thirty four yards on Sunday, So I don't love Baby Tron in this matchup again at tight end, I'm just looking at guys who may be on your waiver wire, who you could play. If a tight end's getting volume, he's viable. So we'll always dig a little bit deeper on the show sort of, because the first recommendation to start this week is Darren Waller only because he needs to be rostered in one hundred percent of leagues. He had a target share north of thirty percent in Week one and he played every single snap. If that continues, he's going to be a tight end one in fantasy football this year, and he gets a good matchup this week against Kansas City, as I talked about earlier. Now, the dart throw at tight end is Ryan Griffin. According to PFF, of all tight ends who played last week, Ryan Griffin ran the most routes. Ryan Griffin, for those of you who don't know, plays for the Jets, and in a game this week against a Cleveland team that could push the Jets offensive pace and one that also just gave up a big game to tight end to Laney Walker, Griffin is a really interesting, cross your fingers type of play. The Panthers defense wasn't rostered in a ton of leagues entering this week because they faced the Rams in Week one, but they're in a great spot against Jamis Winston and the Bucks here in Week two. I already mentioned that the defensive line could man handle the Bucks offensive line this week, but Jamis Winston also has averaged one point four interceptions per game started since the beginning of last year. That's kind of hard to comprehend. So the Panthers are a must play now. If you want a deeper play, you could go with Cincinnati's defense. Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty bad in Week one. The Bengals are at home their favorites, and all things considered, they weren't bad against the Seahawks last week in Seattle, and they were able to generate four sacks so I don't mind, Cincinnati. If you're scrambling to find a defense this week, that's going to do it. For today's show, Thanks to all of you guys for listening. As always, if you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You can also follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. I'll do my best to answer any fantasy questions that you throw my way. Thanks everyone, Talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly Mailbag Show.