687: Week 5 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host, Jay James Zachera j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eeson in this episode six hundred and eighty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. As expected, last week's sleeper picks weren't super strong. I mentioned that heading into the week, and it came to fruition. Jared Goff was the best quarterback on the week, though, and Jacoby Brissette was fine too, and the Giants were the number two defense last week as well, So the streaming picks weren't that bad, aside from Marcus Mariota, that is. But a lot of guys became irrelevant because a players coming back from injury like Greg Dortch and Zay Jones didn't even play. Richie James did nothing, and we didn't get anything out of the deep running back plays either. It was just kind of a weird week all around because there weren't many players to actually choose from. But we should be in better shape here in week five. 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So the way this Sleepers episode typically works is that I give you a handful of players rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, then players rostered in ten to twenty five percent, and then players rostered in fewer than ten percent. There's been three buckets of players traditionally. I'm realizing that we can in week out those top two groupings don't always have enough reasonable players to choose from. Sometimes there's plenty of them in that twenty five to fifty group, but sometimes there's not, and sometimes there's none in that ten to twenty five group. So I'm gonna switch things up moving forward. Starting this week, we're gonna just go with sleepers and deep sleepers, two groups. One group is rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, the other one, the deep sleepers. They're rostered in fewer than ten percent. So nothing's gonna change with the number of players that I'm talking about. The type of player I mention won't be changing, but I think this is a much more straightforward way to present the information and give you the best possible analysis. So that being said, let's look at a handful of players you could start who are rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues but more than ten percent of them. Let's look at regular sleepers. First off, is my favorite quarterback streamer this week, Jamis Winston, and this is obviously if he plays. At the time of this recording. I don't really know if he's gonna go or not. I talked about Winston on the fifteen Transactions episode though, and if he does go, he gets a Seattle defense that ranks is the third best matchup and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks this year, and they've been bad at giving up big plays. Only two teams have allowed more fifteen plus air yard completions and Seattle ranks first and deep ball rate allowed. That sounds like a good match for Jamis Winston and Chris Alave, doesn't it. Let's go to the wide receiver position next, and let's talk about Michael Gallup. It feels like Gallup should not be rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. He returned this past week, and in his return he ran the second most routes on Dallas in only five fewer than Ceedee Lamb that resulted in two catches and a touchdown. We should probably expect his participation to rise each week as he gets acclimated to the game again, and this week he gets a Rams defense that ranks first and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers on the season. The Rams also ranked first and adjusted target share allowed, meaning teams are using their wide receivers as a higher against the Rams than an average opponent. Now I mentioned the Bills wide receivers in the fifteen transaction show this week. Let's go back to them. If Isaiah Mackenzie goes this week, he's dealing with a concussion, I love him. Jamison Crowder is out and Mackenzie now has a shot to be the full time slot guy for Buffalo. That's obviously a huge deal because Mackenzie has still seen about a seventeen percent target share for Buffalo over his last two games despite not being a full time player. The Bills are huge favorites against the Steelers. They've a huge implied team total and Pittsburgh's a top ten team and slot yards allowed this year. They've been a team that's been bad against slot guys for years under Mike Tomlin. And if Mackenzie can't go, here's a deep sleeper for you. Khalil Shakir, the rookie would likely take on that role, and like I mentioned in the fifteen Transactions episode, my prospect model loved Khalil Shaker. Matt Collins has averaged a target share per game of twenty percent over his last three contests. Hunter Renfro's been out with a concussion and may maybe he goes this week, but Hollins will remain playing opposite of DeVante Adams. Renfro is their slock guy and the Raiders are seven and a half point dogs against the Chiefs this week. That's, according to Fandels Sportsbook, that could force more throws from Derek Carr, and it's against a team that ranks in the top half of the league and adjusted target shair allowed and points allowed to wide receivers. If Renfro doesn't go, Hollins gets a little bit of a bump. If he does go, Hollins is still a deep sleeper. And then I'm gonna go back to Zay Jones this week. He was out in Week four, but up until that point in time, he had seen a twenty two percent target chair in Jacksonville's offense. Now, the Jags have an easier matchup against Houston, a team that ranks fifteenth and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers. They should be able to move the ball, and if Jones maintains that twenty two percent share, he should be fine as a wide receiver for maybe even a flex option this week. He did get some working on Wednesday, which is a good sign now onto running backs. Like I say each week, most running backs that are seeing work are already rostered. In fantas football, sometimes you've got to play the game script game, and that's what we're gonna do with a lot of the guys this week, starting with James Cook. Like I just talked about, the Bills are big favorites over the Steelers this week. The last time we saw a sincere blowout from Buffalo, James Cook got some run. He had eleven carries against Tennessee in Week two. Now, Devin Singletary has dominated that backfield of late, but there's also just a chance that they want to get Cook a little bit more involved. In general, this is definitely a desperation type play, but if this game favors Buffalo like the spread suggests, then maybe we see a little bit of James Cook. I'm expecting Mike Boone to be the number two back for Denver this week, despite them signing Latavius Murray longer term. Maybe that changes, but it's a short week and Boone got plenty of run in Week four. This week, the Broncos rank in the top half of the league and implied team total. I'd much rather have Melvin Gordon, There's no doubt about it, but Boone could work as another desperation play, and then two more running backs were definitely gamescript dependent. The first ones were Shot White. We saw White with a season high thirty eight percent snapshare in Week four, and he saw a lot of work through the air, catching all five of his targets for fifty yards. He's a really good receiving back. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see him get some late game action if the Buccaneers do get ahead of the Falcons this week, and that's very reasonable impossible because the Bucks are eight and a half point favorites. Rashad White, by the way, in my prospect model, his top comp was David Johnson. He's a good player. He should at least be rostered right now, like I talked about on the fifty Transaction show. And then the same logic holds for someone like Isaiah Pacheco. He saw twenty one percent snapshare this past week, but he looked really good on his eleven rush attempts. The Chiefs get the Raiders in Week five, and Vegas has been pretty miserable against the pass. They've allowed the third highest net yards per attempt rate in football, So Patrick Mahomes should have a good day if the Chiefs get out to a lead, Pachecko and his angry running could close things out. Again. None of those running backs are obvious must start players. It's never gonna be possible for that to be the case, but if game script goes their way, they could see more work than projected and then the final normal sleeper to mention Logan Thomas. The Commanders face the Titans this week and Tennessee is fifth and adjusted tight end fantasy points allowed this year and their seventh and adjusted target shair allowed to tight ends. To put that another way, teams are using their tight ends more than normal against Washington this year. Logan Thomas now has a twelve percent target chair on the season, but he's hid about a fifteen percent target share in two of his four games. Johan Dotson is also banged up, and that has a chance to increase Thomas's route participation this week. And that's really a big deal because Thomas ranks outside the top twenty at tight end and route participation, so I think he's a decent enough streamer. Now we're onto the sleepers who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, Guys that no one cares about except for me I care Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is going to start for Miami this week against a Jets defense that ranks ninth and adjusted net yards per attempt allowed this year. Tyreek killing Jalen Waddle or two the the best weapons a backup quarterback can ask for because they can make plays on their own. So Teddy just has to be a distributor. That's what we've seen from Teddy Bridgewater throughout his career. He should be able to do that, and Miami's implied team total of twenty three and a half isn't that bad either. Now, moving on to wide receiver, I already mentioned Khalil Shakir, but he should get some run if Isaiah McKenzie's out, so keep an eye on him, but also keep an eye on Nick Westbrook Akine. He's likely to play the perimeter with Treylon Burks out, and Washington's one of the best matchups for wide receivers this year, especially perimeter guys. The Commanders have actually been averaged to above average against the slot this year, but Westbrook a Keene could make some noise given he's going to be a full time starter. The Titans actually only have four healthy wide receivers right now. It's kind of a mess there. And as much as I like Kyle Phillips, especially long term, he's a slot guy. He's not the direct replacement for Traylon Burks. So I don't mind Nick Westbrook a Keene as a deep play. Donovan People's jones continue. He used to run his Cleveland's number two wide out by a wide margin two. He ran twenty more routes last week than David Bell. The Browns get the Chargers this week, and LA is a top five matchup for wideouts according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and DPJ has two games now this season with a target share north of twenty five percent. In a game that could see the Browns throwing a little bit more than usual, I think he makes sense as a deep sleeper now Jonathan Taylor's out for the Colts. Nahim Hines is the guy that you would want to play in that backfield, but he's rostered in over sixty percent of leagues. But here's the thing. Heines has hit double digit carries in just four career games. I'm sure he gets a spike this week, but we can't assume he's going to be the workhorse. That's not what Naim Heines does. The Colts are probably gonna use backup Deon Jackson and Philip Lindsay in that game. Now, it's a revenge game for Philip Lindsay, and no, I don't actually care about that. But Jackson's kind of intriguing. He's a bigger bodied guy who profiles most as an early down back on that team without Jonathan Taylor, and Denver's not the toughest matchup in the world. He's more of a special teamer and there's plenty of ambiguity with that situation, but he at least deserves a shout this week. Now, last week, Adam Troutman played more snaps than Juwan Johnson for the first time all season. Johnson still ran more routes. That's what's more important, but it's still something to note because I think Johnson is in play as a deep tight end streamer this week because Seattle is terrible against tight ends. Even Kyle Pitts did well against Seattle, and we saw what TJ. Hawkinson did last week. They now rank first in both adjusted Fantasy points allowed and target share allowed to tight ends this year. So Juwan Johnson worth a dart and then the last play this week isn't even deeper play than Juwan Johnson. It's Oj Howard, Yes, Oj Howard. Farah Brown was cut by the Texans this week after Brown missed last week's game with a shoulder injury. Howard ended up running the most routes of tight end for Houston by a pretty decent mark, and he came away with a fourteen percent target share. The Texans could be in a negative game script against Jacksonville this week that could force more throws. Now. Unfortunately, Jacksonville hasn't been a good opponent for tight ends this year, but I think Howard's usage could be better than expected in Week five. I just hope that you don't have to rely on Oj Howard. Now, as for streaming defenses, you've got to love Minnesota against Chicago, considering every team is ranked in the top eight and defensive scoring against the Bears this year since that Week one game in the pouring rain. I also like Miami as I discussed on the fifteen Transactions episode, and then the final one is Tennessee. The Commanders are the fourth best matchup for opposing defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed this year, and they've been getting smoked by opposing fronts. Over their last three games, they've allowed thirteen quarterback hits per game to go along with sixteen total sacks. Now, they faced some tough matchups, yes, but it's still a very good sign for the Tennessee Titans defense. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and Jeff to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to go check out lateround dot com. Otherwise, we got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode that'll drop tomorrow. I'll talk to you then