663: Players to Avoid

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and sixty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. When nanalyst says to avoid a player in fantasy football, they're generally saying to avoid that player at a certain cost. Every relevant player in fantasy is draftable at some point. It's just that in the majority of drafts or when analyzing average draft position and analysts can generally say you probably shouldn't draft this particular player this season. That's what today's episode is all about. You'll hear about ten players to avoid in your fantasy football drafts this year, but with that caveat, you should avoid them at their current price tag. Like last week, I brought on a special guest to talk through these players. I talked to none other than mister Evans Silva himself. Evan's been around for a while and everyone probably knows about him from his award winning Matchups column. He's now doing all of his workover on establishderun dot com and I always appreciate my fantasy football conversations with him because he approaches the game in a different way than I do. It's good to get a different perspective. So we'll get to that conversation in just a second, but before getting to our players to avoid, I did want to remind you about the Established the Run draft kit. Established the Run has rankings for any fantasy format you might be playing in, and they continuously update as news breaks. You also get access to Evans Silva's top one fifty and along with it a change log that you can read to see why players are moving up and down his draft board. It's a great way to make sure you understand why players are ranked where they are. The goals to help you make better decisions, not tell you who to pick, and if you're into best ball drafting, their strategy, rankings and insight can help you out a ton with roster construction. Established Run gives you a different perspective on fantasy football than I do. I think the combination of my work in THEIRS can help make this draft season a successful one. So head over to Establish the Run dot com and purchase their draft kit, and when you do, use promo code JJ for a ten percent discount. That's promo code Jay J. Also, the moment we've all been waiting for has finally arrived. The Week one NFL Sunday Million is officially live on fandle. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of three million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool one million dollars to first place, all for just four dollars. The first Sunday of the NFL season is approaching quickly, so head to fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility autritionans apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Now here's the conversation with Evan and me on players that were generally avoiding this year in fantasy drafts. All right, Evan, we will do the exact same thing that Reeves and I did last week, just going back and forth with some guys that we aren't necessarily avoiding at all costs. Obviously, every player is okay at a certain price point, but just generally speaking at ADP, these are players that were not drafting heavily this season, So why don't you get things off with the first player that you're generally avoiding.

00:03:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna start out strong here. DeVante Adams is a player that I'm significantly lower than adp On. First of all, Demanta Adams just got paid. He's getting paid at an advanced stage of his career, when he's about to be thirty years old. He's nearing the age cliff for bigger wide receivers. There's obviously more target competition in Las Vegas than there was for Demante Adams in Green Bay. Hunter renfro is coming off one hundred plus catch year and Darren Waller is one of the best receiving tight ends in the league. You look back at who Demanta Adams was competing for targets in Green Bay with. You know, we're talking about Alan Lazar, We're talking about him now all of a sudden, a's like a fifth or six round pick. Ran. People are talking about Randall Cobb and Amari rodger Is and you know, trying to prop up Robert Tanyaan coming off this ACL And that's what Devanta Adams was competing for. That's who he was competing with in Green Bay a lot more to compete with now in Vegas. And look, I think Derek Carr is a fine, you know, above league average quarterback. And I actually liked Derek Carr in Fantasy this year as a way of capturing all these weapons. But he's certainly a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers. I mean, I don't even think that that can be debated. So you know, I'm not taking advanta Adams in the first round and he consistently goes in the first round. I've got him Radiy as more of like a mid to late second round.

00:04:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, you know, overall with Adams this year. The other thing with what he did in Green Bay. Obviously you know Aaron Rodgers dictates this to some degree, but I was looking at Nathaniel Hackett's numbers as oc there when when looking at and researching Russell Wilson. This year and over the last three years with Hackett as offensive coordinator, the Packers have had the second highest pass rate within the five so at the goal line, and they've had the most pass attempts at the goal line. Largely you know, obviously Aaron Rodgers loves to change it up and throw it around there, but that obviously has a huge impact on a guy like Davante Adams, which we likely will not see as much. And then you have Darren Waller there, who's a great red zone threat. So I'm with you. I think that anyone thinking that DeVante Adams is gonna have the same kind of magic in Vegas. Maybe he's happier, you know, playing with his boy, but at the same time, you know it's gonna be tougher to put up the numbers that he was putting up. I'm gonna shift things going from wide receiver in the early rounds to an early round quarterback. And this one's kind of weird to talk about because I like Josh Allen as the QB one. Josh Allen's my top ranked quarterback this year, came out number one of my projections. I have him ranked as the QB one pretty comfortably. But this is more of a game theory thing above all else. With Josh Allen. You know, if you are looking at you know, if you're in a best Ball draft or something, you can even sometimes get him in like the early fourth. That's fine, you know, late third. I'm not even like totally totally against that because we usually see big drop offs at running back and wide receiver, especially running back, like in the mid third. Not just an ADP this year, but just historically we've seen that, and so I can understand, you know, after that point in time, just kind of wanting to get that locked in QB one. But at the same time, in home league drafts, what you're gonna see and if you look at like Fantasy Pros aggregate ADP, Josh Allen's a second round pick, and there's a huge opportunity cost and going that direction with Josh Allen whenever you're drafting him around a guy like Saquon Barkley, who could be a top five running back this year, Leonard Fournett, who saw a ton of work last year and you know, has a decent enough outlook this year as well. There's just a really really big opportunity cost there, Whereas if you look three or four rounds later, you know, if you want to still get someone in that elite tier, you can get a Kyler, you can get a Jalen Hurts, you know, you can get a Lamar Jackson whoever, you know in that sixth round range, and it's a lot easier to swallow that opportunity cost than it is more in the second round. So really this comes down to the fact that I would rather build out my elite running backs and wide receivers early. You know, we've known historically, We've seen historically that this drop off does occur when the running back dead zone hits and you're not you know, and not only that, but in the running back dead zone we often see high hit rates at wide receivers too, And so you're kind of getting past that point a little bit. When you do end up getting a Kyler or a Jalen Hurts. Then obviously you can wait even longer if you want to and get a guy like Trey Lance or something, especially in a home league draft where he's probably gonna go even later than where he goes in like a high stakes or a Best Ball draft. So to me, Josh Allen is my QB one. I understand why he's going as the QB one. He's very stable. I mean, like he should be the QB one in fantasy football. It's just I don't think the gap between him and a Kyler and a Jalen Hurts is nearly as significant as what ADP is showing.

00:07:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned Josh Allen going the second round of home league drafts. I mean I see him going the second round of FFPC relatively higher stakes drafts. Yeah, now that can be fun. And when you start to Von Diggs and then Josh Allen in like a you know, it's more of a tournament setting for f FPC, it doesn't make sense to take him in the second round of a home league for sure. This is the second guy that I'm fading, is Josh Jacobs staying on with the Raiders, And like, I think a lot of points are going to be scored in the AFC West this year, so this is a little bit risky to be fading two prominent members of an offense that I do think is going to play well this season. But with Josh Jacobs, I mean, you just have a lot of red flags here. Okay. The new Raiders regime, which comes from the Patriots, obviously has a long history of deploying multi you know, three and even four four man backfields. At times, the Raiders went out and drafted to running backs. So you're white, I think could be maybe just as good of a runner as Josh Jacobs right off the bat. I mean he looked pretty good in the Hall of Fame game. Josh James Jacobs played in the Hall of Fame game, which was a little bit of a red flag because I unders saying they weren't to get him some work behind the first team offensive line. The first team offensive line was out there, but Jerrek Carr wasn't playing. DeVante Adams wasn't playing, And that was a little bit of a surprise. Maybe not as big of a deal as some people made it out to be, but certainly not. I mean, I would take it as a little bit of a red flag. They did. The Raiders did not. The Raiders' new regime did not pick up Josh jacobs fifth year option. And I mean, I don't think it would be crazy if they got like a trade offer for him that they would. You know that they would absolutely be willing to part with him because they this is not how the Patriots historically valued running backs. They're not going to give him an extension. So too many red flags here. He always goes two rounds before anywhere I'm willing to take him.

00:09:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you too. He's dropped down my rankings basically a week after week. You know, he was never someone that I was like overly high on. And it's bizarre too, because like last season, he kind of had an underrated year, like statistically, and in fantasy football, I finally saw the target share that we've sort of been waiting for him to see, and he did so, and he played well during that second half, which is where you obviously want your fantasy assets to play well. But you know, at the end of the day, this is a brand new system, a brand new staff, and I agree with you that it's you know, there's a lot of risk with drafting Jacobs, and he's another guy who will go in the running back dead zone often, and he'll go in that running back dead zone area, especially in like home league drafts, when people are reaching for running backs a little bit higher than what we typically see in some of the drafts that we're in. I'm gonna go with a consistent theme here and go with another running back from that dead zone area who's also got a lot of new stuff going on around him, and that's David Montgomery. You know, David Montgomery's fine as a player, but I think that right now within the fantasy space, people are making a lot of assumptions about his role in this offense. You know, he's been good the last couple of years in fantasy, but last season, only Najie Harris had a higher snap rate than Montgomery at the running back position. Two years ago, Montgomery was first in the NFL and snap rates. There hasn't been really that much competition for Montgomery when he's been healthy. But now we have this new front office, we have a new coaching staff in Chicago, and one that has no ties to David Montgomery. So I think just naturally, even if you think that there is still some influence to some degree, but naturally they're gonna look at David Montgomery. They're gonna lok at this backfield a lot more objectively than what a previous regime would maybe look at this backfield and how they would look at the backfield and objectively, I don't know if David Montgomery is that much better than Khalil Herbert really. I mean, last year, Khalil Herbert was better than Montgomery at gaining twenty plus yards. In the rate that he was gaining twenty plus yards, he was better than David Montgomery in's success rate. He was the only running back last year to rush for one hundred yards against Tampa Bay. He's one of two over the last two years who has done that. The other one was Dalvin Cook. And my prospect model liked Khalil Herbert. It gave him the third best draft capital delta within his draft class, which is essentially saying that he was very undervalued as a prospect overall and situationally, the Bears have one of the worst situations offensively in football right now. They've one of the worst offensive lines in football. You know, they're probably not going to put up that many points. The weapons they are horrendous outside of Darnell Mooney and maybe Cole Kment. So I just think that even if Montgomery were to be given the same workload in this high snap share, in this bellcow workload and these looks, I don't know if he would even be that effective just given the offense in the situation that we're seeing the Bears in right now. So to me, if you're going to get a Chicago Bears running back, I would much rather prefer the upside and potential of Kluil Herbert late than going with David Montgomery in the earliest rounds.

00:12:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Khalil Herbert is actually real good.

00:12:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too.

00:12:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you mentioned the bad offensive line for the Bears. The Raiders are also at risk of field and one of the worst offensive lines in the league. And that offensive line play can sometimes be overrated as it pertains too fantasy production, especially in situations where players are just gonna hoard volume. Like you know, Najie Harris is the perfect example of that. You know, he can still be quite productive in fantasy despite playing behind a really bad offensive line. Another really bad offensive line is in Seattle, and Brandon Thorne just issued his rankings to established around. Brandon Thorn pie the best offensive line analyst in media right now, and all these offensive lines that we're talking about here are very very low in his rankings. That includes Seattle. Seattle I couldn't even get first downs last year with Russell Wilson out there for most of the year. Now we think they're going to get first downs with Gino Smith and Drew Locke. I mean, this is like a legit concern to the extent that I think that you know, there could be like frustration on the part of a lot of players in Seattle this year because this quarterback situation. I mean, it's an absolute joke. It's an absolute joke. And so my fade here is DK Metcalf and gosh, I mean, he's a big time talent, but he also had you know, a big time one of the best deep ball throwers of the past ten years as his quarterback since entering the league. That's going to change in a hurry here, and I just it's going to be so I almost want to fade the entire Seattle offense. Tyler Lockett sometimes gets to a place in drafts because he's going so late that I'll take him. But Dk Metcalf is I just I think the production is going to plumb it here.

00:14:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, you don't want to use situation as like the foundation for fading a player not drafting him at ADP, especially when it's such a talented guy like DK Metcalf. I think we both agree he's a great wide receiver, right, He's a monster. The problem is the situation really is that horrific. I mean, even last year, I think a lot of people are going to look at the splits with Gino Smith and without Gino Smith last year for Metcalf and in the three games, I mean, DK Metcalf is fine, he's like a wide receiver one in two of those three games. The problem is Seattle's offense had six total offensive touchdowns in those games, and DK Metcalf accounted for fifty percent of those. And there's no way, there's no chance it's going to be sustainable or be sustained across the entire season. So I'm with you on DK Metcalf. A lot of agreeing here, but that's sort of what happens. You know, whenever we're studying this stuff and looking at this stuff, is that you're probably gonna come to some agreement. Overall, I'm gonna shift from DK Metcalf and that horrible Seattle situation to one that is a kind of a weird one. I don't love Antonio Gibson this year, even though I like him, you know, as a player overall. I thought that last year there was at least a chance that they would start to use him more as a receiver. You know, we saw that from him in college. You know, he came out as a wide receiver from Memphis. I'm a sucker for the Memphis guys for sure. I Mean they're just these uber athletes who are just really fun to watch and they're electric when they get the ball in their hands. But with Antonio Gibson, we thought that, you know, as this offseason started, Jad McKissick goes over to Buffalo and we're like, wow, this unleashed Antonio Gibson. All of a sudden, Antonio Gibson year three, this is gonna be it. And then McKissick does that one point eighty comes back to Washington. Oh well, there's fifth teen percent target chair from last year that is now getting you know, uh, funneled over to McKissick. And then in the draft, Washington goes out and they take a Day two pick and it's like Brian Robinson, who you know, I think Gibson as a player is better than and more electric than Brian Robinson is as a player and as a prospect. But you know, at the running back position, we have to understand that a lot of this production in fantasy comes down to coaching decisions. And if the coaching staff sits there and they say, you know, Gibson played injured throughout last season. He was injured. He's been injured throughout his career so far in the NFL, you know, we want to hold him back a little bit, keep him fresh. Then they could throw a guy like Robinson onto the field who has a three down skill set. I mean, look, you know, he was buried behind some really really good talent at Alabama. Finally got his call last year, and he was good last year. But even when he was playing with really good town at Alabama, he's still seeing some work in that backfield at times, and he was you know, used as a receiver at times too, And so I do think that Brian Robinson has a three down skill set. And you know, let's just worry some what the guy like Gibson who is already losing receiving work to one of the better pass catching backs who's become one of the better pass catching backs in football and Jad McKissick. And there's already reports now that Brian Robinson could see short yardage work and maybe goal line work from Antonio Gibson. Then all of a sudden, if Antonio Gibson is just an early down between the twenties guy, that is exactly what you don't want in fantasy football, that kind of player. And so you know, of course, there are some sites in some places where you're drafting where Gibson falls enough, where he becomes an okay enough value, it's fine, but you know, in homely drafts and then the aggregate ADP that Fantasy pros has and stuff, he's still like a late third round pick, and that's absurd to me. I mean, it's way too high for a guy who's locked into a backfield committee. I haven't even mentioned that Ron Rivera, the coach himself, you know, comped this Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson dynamic to what we saw with D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart back in the day when Rivera was in Charlotte and coaching the Panthers. So, you know, I just think that there's a lot of downside with Gibson. He's just like a classic dead zone back at this point, and I'm having a hard time drafting him.

00:18:07
Speaker 2: Speaking of split backfields, I'm gonna stay in Seattle with another fade. Kenneth Walker, the rookie out of Michigan State. Really good runner at Michigan State, not very much of a receiving profile. Number one. Number two's got to deal with Rashaan Penny, and Rashean Penny was one of the best running backs in the league down the stretch last season. Seahawks rewarded him with a pretty good deal. One year over five million, five million flat guaranteed. That's pretty good deal for a running back these days. And I mean there's he earned it. And in Seattle they're very big on like guys that earn roles, like it doesn't matter if hey were they the most recent second round pick, Like Sean Penny was a really good back on the stretch last year, and he's gonna play, and so is Kenni Kenneth Walker, and they've already talked about using DJ Dallas and or Travis Homer in receiving in receiving situations. So we're we're cutting off the head of the receiving capability of both Kenneth Walker and Rashod Penny. We're talking about an offense that we're worried that they're going to get first downs, not touchdowns. We're not even we're not even talking about touchdowns. We're talking about moving the chains ten yards downfield. Okay, So you can sit here and say, listen, oh, the Seahawks, you know they love to run the ball, let's draft their running backs. But a little bit closer, you know, zooming in a little bit more on this situation. And there are a lot of ways, like a lot of potential games for you know, we're Shot Penny to have eleven carries for sixty five yards and Kenneth Walker to have nine carries for fifty two yards, and they could even average like a very high yards per carry like those numbers, and you steer still getting nothing from them in fantasy because they're not catching passes and they're not scoring TVs.

00:19:50
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what for Shot Penny managers. I mean, I had Penny on playoff teams last year and I loved it. Right, it was amazing, especially during championship week. But we should be there very pleased with the fact that he had like a six point three yards per carry last year because he had eight targets last season, Rashad Penny did. Because this is the way that Seattle uses their running backs. And it's frightening to think that, you know, you mentioned the Kenneth Walker receiving numbers from college. I don't know if it necessarily means that. And I talked about this like all offseason, you know, during during prospect time and such but I don't know if it necessarily means that he's incapable of catching passes. I just think it's a red flag just in terms of we don't know if he can. And not only that, but usually from from college to pros, when guys do catch a few passes, it's a sign of talent because in college they're just peppering their best players constantly with the ball as much as they possibly can, including you know, using them in like the return game, right because they just want their best players to have the football in their hands. So when these running backs don't get the ball through the air, it's not just a sign of, oh, maybe they're not that good of a receiver. It's also a sign of what if they're not as talented as we might think. So there is some signal there and that's worrisome with Walker. But then on top of that, if he's not that much of a receiver, then it's just a redundant asset to Rashad Penny and that's just a fantasy football nightmare.

00:21:11
Speaker 2: You know.

00:21:11
Speaker 1: Behind probably a bad offensive line in on one of the worst, probably the worst offense in football entering the season from a projection standpoint, all right, I'm gonna move on. This is probably the one player that I'm most fearful to talk about today because I'm most fearful that he could own me. Uh you know, at the season, at season's end. I love him as a player. I've backed him for years as a player. It's Deontay Johnson. The reason I am worried about Deontay Johnson. And first off, I've been the opposite of someone who said that he's you know, inefficient and bad because he's been so inefficient within the Steelers offense. I think situationally, things just look a lot different and rough for him this year. You know, the way the Steelers offense has operated over the last couple of seasons is you've had this statue in the under center in Ben Roethlisberger. This makeshift offense of line. And so what they've done is Ben Roethlisberger was consistently first in time to throw. He would just get rid of the ball really quick, and that would allow a guy like Deontay Johnson to only slants and just catch the ball quickly and generate you know, his yardage and such that way, when you have a low average up of target, you're not going to be able to generate great efficiency numbers. Same thing happened with Juju. Juju had a six point zero A dot the last healthy year that he had with the Steelers. You're not gonna be able to generate a lot of efficiency with that low of an A dot unless you're like Percy Harvin, right, So with Deontay Johnson, I'm worried about this shift with the Steelers going from Ben Roethlisberger to these other quarterbacks, not just in terms of like just passing volume, but yeah, it plays into passing volume because the last couple of seasons, last two years, the Steelers have been second in the NFL in passing volume, behind only Tampa Bay. And so we're going to see a more conservative Steelers offense more than likely. And I do think they have a good enough defense to be able to keep game scripts in at that pace and play that way, whereas other teams like Seattle who want to be run heavy may not be able to because they're going to be trailing in games. Mike Thomas never had a losing season in the NFL, and so we know that generally speaking, the Steelers are going to be good enough to be able to stay in games, and so we could see a more run heavy approach, and that scares me a little bit. The other thing that scares me a little bit is this Matt Canada offense wants to get his quarterbacks out of the pocket. They roll out a little bit more. They just haven't been able to do these kinds of things with Ben Roethlisberger.

00:23:29
Speaker 2: What do they do.

00:23:29
Speaker 1: They get Mitch Trubisky a mobile quarterback. They draft Kenny Pickett, a mobile quarterback. These guys who can work within this offense and then within this structure a lot better than Ben Roethlisberger could think that could buy a little bit more time and allow a guy like a George Pickens on the perimeter, Chase Claypool even in the slot, getting down the field, allowing them to do a little bit more damage within this offense. And then Pat Fryermuth still exists. Najie Harris is a good thread out of the backfield. I love Deontay Johnson. I would still be buying him in Dynasty, and I would love to have him in Dynasty long term. All that good stuf. I'm just very concerned about what might happen here in twenty twenty two. And I haven't even mentioned that if Kenny Pickett ends up playing for Pittsburgh at some point this season. Rookie quarterbacks are bad for wide receivers in fantasy historically. That's just another mark against you know, really anyone in this offense, but Deontay Johnson in particular, because Johnson's the one who's going a lot higher than anyone else in fantasy drafts right now.

00:24:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know. And I presented a very similar case to Matt Harmon when we had him on the Established A Run show, as you did, for why I was fading Deontay Johnson. I still largely am, but he had a very interesting response, and that was that consider for a moment that Ben Roethlisberger was actually holding back Deontay Johnson. Yeah, Deontay Johnson is actually a lot better than what he showed with Ben Roethlisberger. He's he can do a lot more stuff than run you know, a little four yard comeback route and like you know, have like a five yard a dot and just rack up catches. So that's just the one and I'm on your side. But that's the one interesting Devil's advocate point that's out there that I had not previously considered, but Matt made a pretty substantial argument for.

00:25:15
Speaker 1: I think Harmon's right. Like I do, I think that Deontay Johnson is an incredible wide receiver, like way undervalued. His new contract was ridiculously team friendly. I don't disagree with Harmon. I think that though when you look at the situation in general for Deontay, he should probably be being drafted around later than where he's being drafted right now. He should probably be going in like that Bateman Darnell Mooney range or something, rather than going you know where you can get like the Alan Robinsons who have those like crazy touchdown upside and such this year, whereas Deontay's just doesn't have that in this offense. I mean, this offense is probably going to be at least maybe just as good as last year, but maybe even a little bit worse the way that the quarterback situation is. So that's my fear with Deontay. You know, I think that there's those situational things for sure, and then there's also George Pickens might be apparently George Pickens is a god, so we'll see how that.

00:26:06
Speaker 2: Right, And they could have a fun receiver corps with you know, a three man musical chairs at quarterback. Although I don't really think that this Mason Rudolph talk is real. My last guy to fade is Matthew Stafford. And that's because, partially, or at least in large part, I would say, because of these these elbow concerns that he had been popping up during training camp, they are allowing him to throw. So I think that if they were truly worried that he might not be ready for you know, some in season time, then you know, then they wouldn't be letting him throw at all. And I think that they they are that that he's going to start in Week one. It's just, you know, we've seen him deal with back injuries over the over the course of time, and I mean, he just doesn't bring enough to the table. He's coming off a great season, man, I mean, he was really really good last year, but he just doesn't bring enough upside to move the needle at the quarterback position even when he is one hundred percent. So now added this extra layer of injury, and he's just someone that I really want to know part of at this point. And I believe there's a four man tier at the at the start of the first round, Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, and Christian McCaffrey, and whatever order you want to you want to spin him. I've thought about moving and I've cut. I have Christian McCaffrey number one right now in Cooper cut number two. I've thought about moving Cup to number four in that tier, just to sort of address some risks, to bake out some risk and move him into the number two receiver spot behind Justin Jefferson. I don't know what what has your reaction been so far to the Matthew Stafford all boat stuff.

00:27:43
Speaker 1: Well, the thing is I was actually fading Stafford even before this stuff started. You know, Stafford, There's a lot of quarterback related marks that I look at that do not favor Matthew Stafford entering this year his highest touchdown rate of his career last year. That generally regresses a little bit. The Rams themselves scored eighty percent of their off offensive touchdowns through the air last season, which is another number that generally will regress to the mean year over year. Obviously is good. Obviously, the offense is strong and the scheme is strong for him to be you know, a viable enough fantasy option, but it's not like he was this like undeniable starter last year in fantasy. You know, it's because of what he does and how he plays. He's a pocket passer, and so if you're not getting that juice you know with with a quarterback's legs, it's just you know, you need that player to have some sort of outlier type season, whether it's volume wise like we saw Tom Brady last year, or whether it's efficiency wise and how the team scores touchdowns, which is what we saw with Matthew Stafford last year. But even Stafford wasn't there yet. You know, it's the same argument that you can make with like Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow had one of the best yards per attempt averages of all time last season, and he's still you know, was like a QB ten in points per game. You know, it's this is the way that fantasy football operates, and we play within the rules like this is this is what we have to do, and we have to recognize that the rushing component is just so so important at quarterbacks. So to me, since Stafford's sort of at the top of that tier where he goes, you know, with Derek Carr and maybe at Kirk Cousins or something like that, I would just rather get the Derek Carr Kirk Cousins a little bit later than paying up for Stafford, unless I'm in a you know, best ball situation or something where I'm trying to stack these guys and I get like a Cooper cup Early and an Alan Robinson early. I think, you know, going with a ramstack is obviously fine because the Rams are good offensively. But that's my general thought on Stafford Good. I'm gonna finish things off here. One more guy, TJ. Hockinson. I can't understand TJ. Hockinson's ADP right now, not only because of just where he goes generally, but I think Dallas Goddard should be drafted ahead of TJ. Howkinson at this point. At the tight end position, generally speaking, you want difference makers, like you need a top three tight end for it to really really matter in fantasy football, and I don't know if Hawkinson necessarily has that in him. You know, he's averaged no more than twelve point one points per game through three years. That happened last year where he was the tight end six. With that score in full PPR. Now, if you look at this Lion's offense, you have more bodies in the offense, with am and Ross Saint Brown's emergence, DJ Sharks apparently lighting it up right now, potentially Jamison Williams coming back halfway through the season. You have DeAndre Swift in the backfield. It's really interesting to me, and I talked about this really all off season, but it's really interesting to me how aman Ross Saint Brown just goes absolutely ballistic down the stretch last year, and everyone's response is, oh, it's because TJ. Hawkins and DeAndre Swift were out, Like, yeah, sure, I understand that's part of the reason why he was able to hit like such a high ceiling in terms of target share. But why would we expect an offense to run through a running back and tight end in that passing game as opposed to a really effective rookie slot guy who's probably only going to get better.

00:30:45
Speaker 2: Right.

00:30:45
Speaker 1: It just doesn't make that much sense to expect TJ. Hockinson to be this dude when we have more evidence of him not being that dude, whereas aman Ross Saint Brown showed us that he's kind of a beast. So if you look at the situation overall, we don't know for sure if T. J. Hawkinson even has that elite status in him, and his situation just isn't that great, right. I Mean, he has a lot of other pass catchers to deal with there, but on top of that, he's got a lot of bad going for him from a historical ADP front. On episode six fifty seven, I covered breakout tight ends in a process for finding breakout tight ends, But there's a lot of historical ADP trends that just don't favor Hawkinson historically breakout tight ends. So tight ends drafted after round five, that's how I've defined it. But breakout tight ends they generally have a good quarterback associated with them. It's good to find tight ends who have good quarterbacks. And the logic that I've used as to why that's the case is that good quarterbacks, and this is all by ADP, so good quarterbacks by ADP, but good quarterbacks by ADP are generally just better quarterbacks, and better quarterbacks are able to get through their reads faster, they can get to the tight end position quicker, right, And so that's why tight ends in these offenses are able to thrive a little bit more. But then on top of that, TJ. Hockinson is not the top pass catcher from his team by ADP. That's another bad So he's a bad quarterback in Jared Goff by ADP, and he's not the top pass catcher by ADP either, with Amen Ross Saint Brown being drafted ahead of him. Since twenty eleven, we've had nineteen tight ends drafted between round six and nine, so middle round tight ends who were not their team's first pass catcher, and they had a quarterback drafted after QB sixteen, so they're not the team's top pass catcher, and they have a bad quarterback. Of those nineteen tight ends, only one of them exceeded ADP expectation by three or more points per game. It was Zach Ertz way back with Carson Wentz when he was a middle round tight end. He was able to get a lot of volume and break out that way. TJ. Hawkinson. There's just a lot working against Hawkinson this year from an ADP historical front, from a competition on his own team front. I just have a really hard time drafting him, do you agree?

00:32:49
Speaker 2: I mean, after that, rant, I don't think anybody is going to be drafting TJ. Hockinson, Well, thank you.

00:32:56
Speaker 1: I appreciate that. Evan my man, appreciate you hopping on the show to give some takes some players that you're avoiding. For anyone not following Evan in his work, make sure to check out establishthrun dot com and follow him on Twitter at Evansilva. I'm on Twitter as well at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com. You can purchase the draft Guide, which is now up to almost two hundred pages. You can join the Late Round Fantasy Patreon, subscribe to the free newsletter. Check it all out lateround dot com. Thanks for listening. Everyone really appreciate it. I'll talk to you later in the week.