324: 15 Transactions for Week 14

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachariesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and twenty four of the Late Round podcast and the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I'm not sure if you remember, but Dereck Henry was a cell candidate on this show just a few weeks ago, and with every game that he destroys, I'm reminded of that by people on Twitter. Hey, remember when you said that Derek Henry was a cell candidate. That's what they'll tweet me. Yeah. Man, I do remember that because I wrote about it and I talked about it. I hate to break it to you people, but I'm okay with being wrong when there's logic and reasoning behind the advice that I give. Now, I made some mistakes with Derrick Henry because I made assumptions. For example, I assume that Ryan Tannehill wouldn't be very good, and Tannehill's efficiency has really helped the Titans see positive game scripts. That's huge for a running back like Derrick Henry. Had I known Ryan Tannehill will become one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football, I would have never called Derrick Henry a cell. It's just funny. Though. On the show where I talked about Henry, I also talked about negativity bias, how people tend to remember the things that are more negative in nature because those things have a greater impact on their psychological state. But I talked about negativity bias and I was ready for the heat if Dereck Henry continued to play well. And it's cool you guys can hit my mentions and make fun of a bad recommendation, I'll survive. I've got a really cute sixteen month old daughter that I can play with who doesn't care if I get something wrong with my job. But this is such a good example of negativity bias. It's similar to the Aaron Jones cell recommendation that I had earlier this year too, after he had a big performance. It was person after person hitting me up saying how dumb of a transaction it was to sell Aaron Jones. But now that Aaron Jones hasn't been close to the fantasy asset that he was earlier, in the year silence because there's no longer a negative feeling associated with the sell Aaron Jones transaction. Now, let me be clear here, I'm not opening today's show in this way because I want you guys to throw me a pity party. My job is to be entertaining, sure, but it's also to be accurate, and the Dereck Henry recommendation given this result wasn't accurate at all. I'm taking my l. It's not my first l and it won't be my last one, but I'm taking it. I just wanted to shed some light to something that I find really interesting, how people, and I'm most definitely guilty of this as well, but how people tend to focus on the negative so so much more than the positive. When you realize that it happens, it can really change the way that you take in information. Now, before listening to more wrong transactions this week, I just wanted to send another reminder to check out Odds Fire. With odds Fire, you can compare odds across major bookmakers in the regulated US market. I use it for fantasy purposes to see how lines are moving, but you can shop odds and check out where money's being placed as well, and it's all in one place. Oddsfire dot Com check it out gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler add Darwin Thompson. It's only taken fourteen weeks in injuries to two Kansas City running backs, but it could be Darwin Thompson season. As of right now, I don't know the status of Damian Williams's ribs injury. He missed Week thirteen's game. Andy Reid did come out on Monday though, and say that Daryl Williams, who was injured in Sunday's game, that there's a good chance that he doesn't play this week. So if both players missed time, then the Chiefs backfield is just Lashaw McCoy, the geriatric Lashaw McCoy, and Darwin Thompson. In Sunday's game, Darwin Thompson touched the ball eleven times for forty four yards in the touchdown. A Kansas City running back has had sixty percent or more of the team's running back rushes in just four games this year. That backfield has mostly been a committee, and of those four instances, three of those came from Damian Williams. So if he's out on the field. We're probably going to see another split backfield. That's what makes Darwin Thompson a pretty intriguing ad. This week, drop Sammy Watkins. Look. I talked about Sammy Watkins on last week's Matchup show and it was basically the following the process for Sammy Watkins and playing Sammy Watkins this past week. It made sense if you wanted to use Sammy Watkins, if the process led you to wanting to use him, that made sense. The problem was Sammy Watkins hadn't produced since like twenty sixteen. It was Week one, but it feels like that long ago. But you can drop Sammy Watkins now. Over his last two games, he only has a ten percent target share, and he still has just one top twenty four performance or a wide receiver one a wide receiver two performance on the season, and it came all the way back in Week one, and he's been in plus matchups, and he's played with and without Tyreek Hill. Maybe he has a usable performance down the stretch, but are you really going to trust Sammy Watkins? Are you really going to predict that performance? Probably not. In most leagues, he can be dropped, sell Bo Scarborough. So just as a reminder anyone who's a sell or buy on this week's show and moving forward, it's all about confidence, So you shouldn't have a lot of confidence in both Scarborough moving forward. And here's why. Now, the peripherals aren't horrible for Scarborough. He's averaged seventy seven point six percent running back rush share over his last three games for the Lions, but he's barely been utilized in the passing game, so basically he's the quintessential early down running back. Now that hurts him from a fantasy perspective that he's not seeing that much work through the air, but so does the brutal upcoming schedule for the Detroit Lions. They get the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Broncos over the next three weeks, the last three weeks of the fantasy season. That gives Scarborough three matchups against teams that rank seventh, fourth, and second best against fantasy running backs when adjusted for strength of opponent. Because he's not being used that much as a receiver, he's going to be hard to trust down the stretch, ad Zach Pascal. So there's been five games that t Y Hilton has missed this year. In those five games, Zach Pascal has averaged a twenty two point one percent target share. He hasn't been that great in fantasy football, but that amount of work is awesome. Now. T Y Hilton had a setback last week and he wasn't able to play in Week thirteen. If that continues and he doesn't play in Week fourteen, Zach Pascal has a plus matchup, a very very good matchup, actually the best matchup you can find against the Buccaneers, So he's worth an ad this week. Ad Raheem Moster so on Sunday, Raheem Moster just completely took over the San Francisco forty nine ers backfield. He had seventy nine percent of the team's running back rushes and almost ten percent of the team's targets. He had seen that high of a target share in the past, but the seventy nine percent running back rush chair was by far the highest that any San Francisco running back had seen all season long. So if Matt Brida continues the miss time, Moster could be viable for running back needy teams heading into Week fourteen. Now, the matchup against the Saints is not very ideal, but it's tough to find good running backs that have usage off the waiver wire this time of year, sell Ronald Jones. So after Sunday's win against Jacksonville, Bruce Arians was asked about Ronald Jones' usage. This is what Bruce Arians said, quote, Rojo missed a blitz pick up and that's it. And then he added, you don't get to play no more. So that's how short Ronald Jones's leashes. Apparently he missed a blitz pick up and then he's not usable for the rest of the game for those of you who miss it. After seeing eleven or more carries in four of his previous five games, Ronald Jones carried the ball just six times in Week thirteen and he didn't see a single target. He was averaging four point two targets per game over his last five and obviously that means he probably wasn't seeing a lot of snaps, and that's exactly what happened in Week thirteen's game. His twenty seven point six percent snap share was his lowest since Week eight. So the reason I'm selling Ronald Jones is pretty obvious here. How are you going to confidently play Ronald Jones in the fantasy playoffs when we know that one failed Blitz pick up can result in very low usage. I don't know how you can trust Ronald Jones after what happened this week by Jameis Winston. It wasn't the best fantasy outing in the world for Jamis Winston in Week thirteen, but he was from a real football standpoint. He completed twenty one of his thirty three pass attempts for two hundred and sixty eight yards. He just didn't have a passing touchdown. That's the first time that that happened for Jamis Winston all year long, and his Week thirteen performance was his worse since Week one against San Francisco. But better days are ahead. In Week fourteen he gets a below average matchup against the Colts, but weeks fifteen and sixteen he gets the Lions and the Texans. When adjusted for strength of opponent, those are two top seven matchups for the Bucks passing attack. So Jamis Winston should be absolutely fine, especially if you have a bye ad James Washington. So so far this season, Duck Hodges has thrown five hundred and thirty passing yards and three touchdowns. James Washington has been on the receiving end of two hundred and three of those yards and two of those three touchdowns. Now, part of this is because Juju Smith Schuster hasn't been on the field. Washington has averaged a twenty six point four percent target share over his last two games. It's a very strong number. And also he's hunting buddies with Duck Hodges. You guys probably saw the picture on Twitter last week. But in all seriousness, Washington's played into more snaps for the Steelers. He's actually led Steelers wide outs and snapshare over the last two weeks. And he could hypothetically help fantasy managers as early as this week because they get the Cardinals add Anthony Miller. So one of the trends on last week's ten Trends episode was about Anthony Miller and how he had back to back weeks with at least a twenty two percent target share, and then I talked about him on the Matchup show and how I liked him this past week. Yes, I'm backpadding myself right now, but on Thanksgiving, Miller's target share jumped to thirty four percent in a plus matchup against the Lions. He's being utilized more and Taylor Gabriel is apparently still in concussion protocol. So this all makes Anthony Miller a nice ad off the waiver wire. Sell John Brown. So, John Brown had at least fifty yards receiving in each of his first ten games this year. Over his last two games, his average receiving yards per game is thirty two and a half. Throughout his first ten games, he had a target share of twenty seven percent. Over his last two games, it's seventeen percent. So things aren't trending up for John Brown right now. And then, on top of that, look at the Bill's schedule over their next three games. They get Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England. That is unbelievably difficult for a passing attack. The Patriots are the best team against fantasy wideouts when adjusted for strength of opponent, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh rank eleventh and twelfth, respectively, so it could be tough for John Brown to score fantasy points in the playoffs. By Ryan Tannehill. So Ryan Tannehill had his worst fantasy outing as Titans starter this past Sunday, scoring thirteen point eight standard points, but he also only had five rushing yards. He had averaged thirty eight rushing yards per game over his last three contests, and Tennessee didn't really ask Tannehill to do a lot. He only threw twenty two passes. Now, like I talked about last week, Tannehill's weeks fourteen and fifteen matchups or some of the best that you're gonna find across the league. He gets Oakland this week in Week fourteen, and they're allowing four point three more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks versus those quarterback season long averages. And then in week fifteen they get Houston, they're giving up almost three more points per game than their opponent's average. So if Tannehil can get things going with his legs, especially if Tennessee season negative game script, he has legitimate top five upside in both of those weeks. Drop David Johnson. So on Sunday, we finally saw Chase Edmonds, David Johnson, and Kenyan Drake all healthy together on a football field, and we officially saw that this is Kenyan Drake's backfield. Johnson only played twenty three point four percent of the Cardinal snaps. Kenyan Drake's snap share was almost eighty percent. Drake saw thirteen rushes, David Johnson had four. Chase Edmonds didn't have any. Drake had five targets, David Johnson had two. It's a very sad day, but David Johnson's essentially become a higher end handcuff and I don't think it's because of an idiotic coaching staff. You guys, Kenyan Drake has been the better running back for the Arizona Cars add Mike Kasiki, so since going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week seven, the Dolphins offense has not been that bad. They're ninth worst than yards per drive, but twenty of their offensive drives have ended in a touchdown. That's the fourth highest mark in the league. They've scored a touchdown on twenty five point six percent of their drives. That's better than the Texans and Cowboys since that time, and that's naturally made the receivers on that team more viable in fantasy. I've talked about DeVante Parker on this show a lot in the past, but Mikeasiki's another player that you should have on your radar. He's now averaged a seventeen point one percent target share over his last five games, and during this time. He's had three top five fantasy performances at the tight end position. So you should be adding Mikeasiki this week. And if you can't get them, you can look at Ian Thomas as well, because Greg Olsen had a concussion this past Sunday ad Gardner Minshew. So given the percentage roster numbers that are out there, it's getting harder to find quarterbacks that are viable streamers off the way, at least as recommendations. I think Jacobe Burssett, who's now rostered in thirty eight percent of Yahoo leagues, I think he's a good streamer this week against Tampa Bay. But if you want to dig a little bit deeper, you can go to Gardner Minshew, who is named starter once again for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He's not that great of a play this week against the Chargers, but in weeks fifteen and sixteen, the Jags get Oakland and Atlanta. Those are two teams that rank towards the bottom of the league and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. So if you have a bye, Gardner Minshew is a great ad add to Houston Texans defense. So the Texans faced New England in Week thirteen. As a result, they were dropped in a lot of leagues. Now, to be fair, the Texans probably should have been dropped in a lot of leagues because they haven't been the same defense since JJ Watt got hurt. But with that being said, they're not a bad streaming option here. In Week fourteen, they're facing Drew Locke in the Denver Broncos. Now, Locke didn't take any sacks against the Chargers this past week, but Houston's at home, and according to Fandels Sportsbook, they're nine and a half point favorites against Denver, so at the very least, I do think that they should give you a high floor. The sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen transactions call him over on number fire dot Com is to sell Darius Geiss. And what I mean by this is that we shouldn't expect Geis to do what he did in Week thirteen over and over again through the Fantasy playoffs, because really, his secondary numbers still weren't very good. He saw just thirty eight and a half percent of Washington's running back rushes, and he had a twelve percent target share. That target share is better than what we've seen since his return from injury, but the running back rush share is still pretty bad. And this is all while playing the third most snaps at running back on his own team. Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson both played more snaps than Darius Geis in week thirteen. Now, hypothetically his performance should lead to more playing time. Geist is a very good running back, but does it really make sense for Washington to feature Geist during a lost season. I'm not sure it does, which is why I'm hesitating to fully trust him, especially given the offense that he's in. And by the way, I would say to add al Lexander Madison, and you should add Alexander Madison if he's on your waiver wire, given Dalvin Cook got hurt on Monday night. But I've been talking about adding handcuffs for weeks now, so I figured it'd be a waste of time to make that a transaction this week. But add Alexander Madison. That's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts can be found and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.