760: Utilizing Front Office Decision-Making

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zafer j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode seven hundred and sixty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. For anyone who's looking for my rookie rankings, they're out there. You can purchase the Late Round Prospect Guy, which was updated on Saturday night, and you can get those rankings there and they're on Patreon too. I'll do a post draft rookie ranking show next week, but each season I like to do this episode first.

00:00:39
Speaker 2: I like to sit back and analyze what we just watched.

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Speaker 1: But instead of just sitting here and saying Jackson Smith and Jigbo do x Y and Z with the Seahawks, I try and look at some of the lower key storylines from the draft. Sometimes it's not about what teams actively do. It's not just about the players that they draft. It's also about the players who they didn't draft. So today I'm going to analyze some of the front office decision making that we saw from the draft. Now, before I get going, I do want to give a shout out to the Late Round Prospect Guide. You can get the guide right now on lateround dot com for just fourteen ninety nine, and like I said, it's totally updated. Prospect scores, updated profiles, rankings, and more. Check it all out on lateround dot com and get ready to dominate your rookie drafts. Now, let's dig in. I think the most interesting spot to analyze today is Seattle. And it's not the Jackson Smith and Jigba pick. It's the Zach Sharbonay pick. They decided to get Sharboney in round two after spending a second rounder on Kenneth Walker last year. Now, I talked about this on the show earlier this offseason, I mentioned it in the Prospect Guide too. Kenneth Walker had a very overrated rookie season. He ranked dead last and success rate among one hundred plus attempt rushers last year. He failed to gain positive yards per rush at the highest rate in the lead. He's not a bad running back, He's just a home run hitting running back. And then all the while, I'm not sure we saw his pass catching concerns get wiped out. He had a bad receiving profile coming out of college, and when he took over that backfield after that Rashad Penny injury. He averaged a target share per game rate of just seven and a half percent for a bell cow back. That's not very high. So what did Seattle do? Well, we know Pete Carroll loves himself some running backs, so they went out and got Zach Sharbonay. I've already seen people on Twitter say that it's somewhat of a redundant asset, and I'm not backing this pick at all. I'm not saying it was a good pick. I don't think Seattle needed to do this. But if you look at what Sharboney brings to the table, it's a different skill set than what Kenneth Walker brings to the table. Despite both of them being higher volume backs. Sharboney is more of a grinder. He had one of the highest success rates in college football last year. My friend Hayden Winks from Underdog Fantasy he said this about Arba back in a February write up quote. His seven point one yards per carry on first and ten and second and ten runs is impressive, but his seventy two percent success rate on carries with three or fewer yards to go projects well for red zone success and NFL touchdowns guys. Sharboney is a reliable grinder when Kenneth Walker was a home run hitter in year one. That pairing makes plenty of sense. It doesn't necessarily make sense when you factor in draft capital, but the pairing does make sense. And Sharbonnay also had a better receiving profile coming out. Walker's best season reception share in college five point four percent, it was really low. Sharponnay was closer to thirteen percent. They're not the same type of running back, I think Seattle won and someone who could be a more reliable three down back. And while that might not come to fruition because Sharbonnay still has to prove himself in the NFL, that's at least the logic here in my opinion, And of course this is not a good situation for fantasy. It understandably knocks Charbonnay down a tier in rookie drafts, and Kenneth Walker obviously takes a hit because he doesn't have that same bellcow potential. But strictly from a player evaluation standpoint, I understand what Seattle was thinking. I just don't understand why they had to do it. The Ravens took Zay Flowers in the first round. They already have Mark Andrews. Of course, they signed OBJ this offseason, and Rashad Bateman still on the roster. This is not going to be your Greg Roman Ravens. Todd Munkin's the offensive coordinator there now, and we're bound to see a more pass heavy approach from Baltimore as a result. That's definitely part of the reason I think Baltimore went after Flowers. They're finally making real investments a pass catcher and this pass catching group is pretty impressive. Now Obj might be dust, We're not totally sure, but it seems like people are forgetting about Rashad Bateman. He just hasn't been able to stay healthy last season, though he ranked twelfth among qualified wide receivers in yards per route run.

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Speaker 2: Let me read you the players.

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Speaker 1: Who ranked ahead of him, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Rashid Shaheed, aj Brown, Jalen Waddle, Stefan Diggs, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Aman, Ross Saint Brown, Cooper Cup, and Cede Lamb. That's it. That's a great list to be part of. And with a pass heavier offense, Lamar Jackson's a more attractive fantasy option. There's more opportunities for scrambling, and more of their touchdowns will naturally come through the air versus on the ground. They'll still be a below average team and pass rate more than likely, but the Ravens making this move is definitely another signal that this Greg Roman offense is no more. Flowers also has a chance to climb this depth chart and become the number one option a wide receiver. He's a talented guy who can line up everywhere, and he's yet another option who can beat defenses down the field, so I'm expecting a pretty vertical passing attack. The Bills took Dalton Kinkaid in the first round despite having Dawson Knox on their roster, and they didn't address slot receiver. They did draft Justin Shorter in the fifth round, but Shorter's a big, bodied, physical specimen. He exited high school as a five star recruit, but he wasn't able to do a whole lot At Penn State in Florida, he played five seasons and scored eight total touchdowns. That's a rough sign for a physically gifted player. That means the Bills probably like what they have in Khalil Shakir, and they should. He's a great player, and Beat reporters were saying as much too. But I will say I think Dalton Kinkaid's gonna occupy that spot in the field a whole lot in this offense. So while Shakir walked away from the draft with a win, and I'm very excited about that because I'm a truther, and he should get more run this year in that Bill's offense, but Dalton Kinkaid is still someone who's going to impact him in fantasy. And speaking of Kinkaid, because he didn't test, my new tight end prospect model doesn't have him as the tight end one. He's the tight end two. He maybe would have been the tight end one had he tested. But the top tight end in that model, just as in the side, is Sam Laporda. I still have Kincaid ranked ahead of Laporta in my post draft rookie rankings, but Laporta's looking like a nice value in early rookie drafts that I've seen. Now, speaking of tight ends, this class is filled with good ones. And another one who looks good in that model is Luke Musgrave, who landed in Green Bay the Packers rarely would surround Aaron Rodgers with higher end tight end, wide receiver pass catching picks, but they did the opposite in this draft. For Jordan Love Musgrave went forty second overall, and then they went out and they drafted my guy, Jaden.

00:07:31
Speaker 2: Reid eight picks later.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the Packers depth chart pre draft, it was lacking. It did not look good at pass catcher. They had no legitimate tight end and outside of Christian Watson Romeo Dobbs, there was no depth at wide receiver. But it's a type of capital that they spent to get these guys that's important. They spent two top fifty picks to get Reid and Musgrave, and then they spent a third rounder on tightand Tucker Craft, and then later in the draft they got a couple of more wide receivers. When you have a good quo quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, you can rely on him to help his pass catchers out. I'm not saying that's the way to go. I'm not saying that's the way you should team build, but that's clearly what the Packers have been thinking over the last decade. When there's more of a question Mark and Jordan Love. You want to surround him with as much help as possible. The Jaden Reid pick got me very excited. In particular, he looked pretty good in my prospect model pre draft, and one of his comps was Stefan Diggs. I talked about Read a lot pre draft on this show for anyone who listened to those earlier episodes, and with Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson, I do think there's a non zero chance that Read is the team's top target hog when we get into twenty twenty four. It wouldn't make that much sense to predict that for him here in year one. But Watson wasn't some super high volume guy last year, and he might not be that kind of player in the NFL. It doesn't mean he won't make a giant impact. He's just not going to necessarily see a twenty five percent target here a year in and year out. He's just a hyper efficient player. And while I did like dobb Is a prospect, Reid is the better prospect between the two from what I'm seeing early on Red and Muskrave. They're both targets and rookie drafts right now. One of the storylines in the draft was teams with established running backs getting some of our favorite pre draft running backs. Sharbonnat to Seattle was one tank. Bigsby going to Jacksonville was another. Is he Abanacanada going to the Jets? Tajy Spears getting drafted by Tennessee. None of those players are walking into a situation like Damian Pierce was walking into last year. But I would argue that there really weren't many situations like that across the league in the first place. So while it's frustrating when you take a step back, should we have expected any different? Doug Peterson, the Jags openly talked about adding a running back in this draft all off season. That one wasn't that much of a surprise. And while there is some worry that they go back to how they used Travis Etn at the beginning of last year with James Robinson, we're probably looking at something in the middle of that and how he ended his season. During his first six games, Etn averages a thirty nine percent running back rush air per game. He was around seventy five percent from then through the end of the year. So with TENK Bigsby, maybe we see Etn at like a sixty percent running back rush are. There's just no doubt that the Jags don't want ETN to have a top five or a top ten running back rush are in the league.

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Speaker 2: They want to keep him fresh, which is why they got Bigsby.

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Speaker 1: And my model likes Bigsby now is he Abana Canada was a really frustrating selection, but he has a good chance to climb that depth chart in New York and be the team's number two running back right away. Breece Hall is also coming off in ACL and look at what the team did this offseason. They added Aaron Rodgers, they won a win right now, They're gonna be competitive this year. So looking at the why here, they probably wanted a reliable runner who can carry a big workload if Breece Hall isn't totally ready, because they need to win right now. But then when Hall is ready, Abandon Canada is a really good compliment with big playability and then with I personally don't think that he's built to be a bellcow running back in the NFL. He didn't have this massive workload in college, so expecting that the change in the NFL seems a little bit foolish, But Derek Henry's getting up there in age and there's a chance that he's not on the team next year.

00:11:14
Speaker 2: At the very least. Spears is a really.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: Good compliment for Derrick Henry, like a very good one. He was massively efficient in college and that's the kind of role that I think he plays in the NFL with some random spiked weeks if an injury hits, and make no mistake you, guys, he's a much much better prospect than Hassan Haskins was last year. So while those players didn't find the perfect landing spots, you can at least understand why these front offices did what they did. To me personally, it's frustrating that Izzy Abanacanada and Tank Bigsby were two of those backs because I did really like them pre draft. Now, on the flip side, there were some established running backs that we were worried about entering the draft, and they escaped either with no additional competition or very little competition. There are five guys I want to call out most here. There are more who didn't see added competition, but I think these five guys are the most interesting. I don't really think talking about James Connor is nearly as worthwhile, but the first is Ramandre Stevenson. The Patriots lost Damien Harris this offseason, and there were reports from the Athletic earlier in April saying that the Patriots quote have quietly shown interest in adding another blue chip back. Not only did they not do that, they didn't ad a running back at all in the draft, and I think that was by far the smartest thing for them to do. Ramondre Stevenson's they do it all back, as evidence by his absurd seventeen point four percent target chare per game rate last year. But New England also added James Robinson this offseason, and they still have Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris rostered.

00:12:45
Speaker 2: Last year.

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Speaker 1: Pierre Strong compared very favorably to an Elijah Mitchell coming out, and Kevin Harris, according to my prospect model, was the most underrated back in last year's class. But overall, Stevenson's looking good post draft, and those other running backs in the Patriots roster they should be rostered in dynasty. Now Tony Pollard's another one. I do think the Cowboys are still candidates to get one of the veteran free agents that's still out there, maybe even bring back Ezekiel Elliott.

00:13:11
Speaker 2: But all Dallas did.

00:13:12
Speaker 1: In the draft was taken undersized back and douce Van a player who won't grab hold of a huge backfield share in the NFL. Pollard is substantially better than any free agent running back that the Cowboys could bring in, though I do expect him to not have like a Saquon Barkley type workload. That doesn't matter as much for Pollard though, because he's just so efficient. He's a big winner with Dallas not taking a bigger body back in the draft like Roshan Johnson or is he Abanacanada. And then there's Rashad White. I was into White last year as a prospect because, of course, his receiving profile was awesome. I'm a sucker for a good receiving profile. His top comp was David Johnson and that got me excited too. He wasn't very efficient as a rookie, though, but it's not like Leonard Fournette was either. It was a bad situation in Tampa Bay. But the Bus didn't add anything in the draft, which signals that they're ready to give White a bigger workload. Now. They did get Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent, and I think Tucker is worth a late round dart in rookie drafts. The reason he didn't get drafted is because of medicals. But White is still a huge winner from the draft, and so is my guy, Isaiah Pachecko. Pachecko's year two model score didn't look so hot because it's going to be hard for a Day three pick a seventh rounder to look favorable in that model. A high percentage of Day three running backs who show up during their rookie seasons end up losing work in year two teams add competition, The Chiefs didn't address running back at all, though I think Pachecko is bound to be the early down guy for them this year, but they currently only have Clyde Edwards, Alaier and le Michael p Ryan behind him. I would imagine they look to bring Jeric McKinnon back, but as we saw in the playoffs, Pochecko's role got better and better down the stretch, so it was a huge, huge w for him. But I think arguably the biggest surprise that not enough people are talking about is with Carolina. I was pretty convinced that when they signed Miles Sanders, his price would only fall as we moved through the offseason. Their running back coach Duce Staley is one who definitely favors committees. He's talked about that a lot. The Panthers don't have a ton of good depth behind Miles Sanders. Chuba Hubbard is fine, but he's closer to a backup than a true committee back. The Panthers didn't have a ton of draft capital, but they didn't address running back at all, so Miles Sanders could have a really great workload in twenty twenty three. If you're not a contender in dynasty, though, and you have Miles Sanders, I would consider him a sell in that situation, even if you have to swallow this season's production. Now, there were a handful of teams in this draft who took shots at wide receiver, not because they had an immediate need, per se, but because they'll have a need very soon or as soon as twenty twenty four. Jackson Smith and Jigba is actually one of those wideouts. Tyler Lockett's getting older, yes, but he's also a potential cut candidate in twenty twenty four. I'm not sure the Seahawks go that direction, but it's sort of killing two birds with one stone with JSN Cedric Tillman's another one. He profiles as a big perimeter guy who could play opposite of Amari Cooper, but that's Donovan People's Jones role. But DPJ is also on the last year of his rookie contract, so Tilman not only could step in this year and make noise, but this is the Browns having more outs in the future, so that's something to consider in rookie drafts. The Bengals took a couple of Day three whiteouts because Tyler Boyd and t Higgins their free agents next year, so they're probably thinking, hey, maybe we get lucky and one of them hits. But the one player who I really thought was a good pick when being forward thinking, and this is the opposite of what the team did last year, but it was Tyler Scott out of Cincinnati going to Chicago. It was absolutely absurd that the Raiders took Trey Tuckers, Scott's teammate before Scott. Scott had far better collegiate production. He's an early declare wide receiver and he had a really strong best season touchdown share in that Bearcats offense. He can stretch the field out of the slot and give that offense a nice vertical element. And why he was such a good pick is because both Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney are free agents next year. There's a chance that if Tyler Scott shows up during his rookie season and my model views Scott favorably, he could walk in and be the team's number two wide receiver in twenty twenty four. I mean, you could argue that he's another Darnell Mooney type that he'd directly be replacing that type of piece in the Bears offense. So as a result, it may look like in the short term this is a crowded situation for Scott and it is. The Bears offense is also not that attractive for a pass catcher from a fantasy perspective, but he has a real shot to appreciate in value year over year. He's one of my favorite late round rookie draft picks. Now I'm gonna end today's show talking about Jamier Gibbs because there's so much to unpack with him, his fantasy outlook, my process, and what it all means. I let it be known this offseason. How size at running back is important, and it is important.

00:18:02
Speaker 2: It's very important.

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Speaker 1: It's not important necessarily from a real football standpoint, but we can't deny that historically, teams have given bigger bodied running backs more work in the NFL, even when you adjust for talent that matters in fantasy football. Gibbs was expected to be a first rounder, but a late first rounder, maybe even an early second rounder, and because of that, he was roughly a ninety third ninety fourth percentile guy in my prospect model pre draft. Usually the ninety fifth percentile is where we see studs for fantasy purposes.

00:18:35
Speaker 2: And then he went twelfth.

00:18:36
Speaker 1: Overall, which was totally unexpected, especially since the Lions at the time had DeAndre Swift and that totally changed his outlook for me. You may say, why would that matter, JJ, He's still on the smaller side, He's still the exact same running back, and that's true. But I care about draft capital and my model does too. I talked about this on last week's Mailbag episode, but I have no problem factoring in draft capital into my process. It gets signal, it matters to me. It would be stupid and not factor in draft capital and not only signals that a team may give a guy work, but an entire front office of people who spent millions of dollars evaluating these players. They pinpointed that one single player and they said, we want to draft him in this case, we want to draft him twoth overall. Now, of course, this is not a flawless process. There are bad picks all the time. Sometimes they're obvious too, But with running backs, with a guy like Gibbs, draft capital needs to be a pretty big influence. Because gibbs analytical profile as a second round pick, it kind of sort of had been seen before. He definitely had a better receiving profile than the other small second round running backs that we've seen historically, and that's why he was better than the geo Bernard Comps. Gibbs was always a good prospect. Like I said, I'm a sucker for receiving work, but it was harder to see the ceiling with that kind of draft capital. When you completely shift those expectations and make him a top half of the first round player, he becomes a complete and total outlier.

00:20:09
Speaker 2: Period.

00:20:10
Speaker 1: We do not see players like Jamir Gibbs very often at all. He's not like those second round players because his draft capital is significantly better than theirs. Now, instead of being semi close to a Geo Bernard from a comp standpoint, he's closer to Christian McCaffrey. Because again, I'm not sitting here trying to project where these players are going to get drafted. I don't care about that. I'm trying to model this out to help you guys win fantasy championships. How I in my model felt pre draft is not nearly as important as how things look post draft. And this is when we're doing our rookie drafts. Ninety nine percent of you are doing them after the NFL draft. Gibbs, his score in my prospect model is now more in line with what we saw from Najie Harrison, Traves etn. But from a percentile standpoint, he's a ninety eighth percentile player. He's actually pretty close to be John Robinson, although their raw scores aren't necessarily as close. The hit rates for running backs with this type of draft capital is phenomenal, and for anyone comping him to Clyde Edwards a layer, he went significantly higher in the draft than CEH and he's got a much more intriguing profile. Overall, it's not the same thing. And this isn't to say that his size is no longer a concern. It's still a concern, just like it was somewhat of a concern for Christian McCaffrey. And I also don't think that Gibbs is a McCaffrey level prospect. CMC is the second best running back prospect in my database, behind only Sakuon Barkley. Gibbs is not that high, but he looks very, very very good post draft, and at the very least for dynasty purposes, he's almost definitely gonna maintain value from year one to year two. We rarely see these first rounders lose significant value, let alone from a player who went this high. The Lions clearly have a plan. Gibbs is like a better version of DeAndre Swift, and Swift despite all the issues that he had with that team and with his health, Swift saw a twelve and a half percent target share last year. His target share per game rate was fifteen percent. It was seventeen and a half percent the year before. Those are elite numbers. Given that the Lions spent this kind of draft capital to replace DeAndre Swift, it only seems logical to think that they have plans to use Gibbs even more. To me, Gibbs is now in his own tier after Bijon Robinson in single quarterback rookie drafts. Sometimes that's what draft capital can do for a player. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

00:22:47
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:22:49
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you later in the week with the Mailback episode.