The Show: Rookie Values, Draft Reaches, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado.

00:00:17
Speaker 2: Here's this week's episode.

00:00:31
Speaker 3: Welcome In, Welcome In. It's a Late Round Fantasy Football show. David Kitchen joined by the face of Late Round, JJ Zecheres and JJ.

00:00:41
Speaker 4: How's it going, buddy, it's going, it's going.

00:00:44
Speaker 1: I just told you I was so I rushed to get the rankings out.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so the Dynasty rankings.

00:00:50
Speaker 1: Are all updated.

00:00:51
Speaker 2: It's been a whirlwind five days, is all right.

00:00:55
Speaker 1: We Prospect Guide was out on Saturday evening, as we, you know, wanted to aim for.

00:01:02
Speaker 2: Depending on the.

00:01:04
Speaker 1: Time zone that you're in, could have been even Saturday afternoon for some people. But then we got that done, had a day with the family on Saturday, and then Monday or sorry, on Sunday, and then on Monday I did the podcast. I mean I did notes and stuff on Sunday, but on Monday did the podcast.

00:01:24
Speaker 2: Thirty three minute solo show.

00:01:26
Speaker 1: And then today I was able to finish up the updated Dynasty rankings.

00:01:30
Speaker 2: So and then and then I got a quick, you know, a little little peloton.

00:01:35
Speaker 1: Yeah right, So if I look a certain way, it's because I literally got out of the shower about ten minutes ago.

00:01:41
Speaker 4: JJ.

00:01:42
Speaker 3: I'm not saying this because you signed my checks, but you look awesome.

00:01:47
Speaker 1: Thank you.

00:01:48
Speaker 4: I may be saying a little bit because you sign my checks. All right. This is an interactive show, so.

00:01:53
Speaker 3: Again, if you are watching live, feel free to comment. We've got lots of people talk about their Dynasty drafts. It is Dynasty Draft season. And speaking of that, we've got the Prospect Guide out and.

00:02:06
Speaker 4: It is updated. Like JJ said, he's got rookie rankings.

00:02:10
Speaker 3: We also have if you're like in a startup Dynasty draft like I am. Well, we actually talked about another startup draft where Godola and I could do one.

00:02:20
Speaker 4: With some late round members. Since there's already one started.

00:02:23
Speaker 2: We started one a while ago.

00:02:25
Speaker 1: It's like a ten dollars, you know, fun little league that we I even think it might be.

00:02:30
Speaker 2: It might not be charity, it might be charity. I'm not even sure.

00:02:32
Speaker 1: I'm always the last one to pick because I'm terrible at paying dues, as you know with the with the Insiders league. Yeah, I'm just really for whatever reason, like I'm usually on top of things, and I'm never on top of that. It's not that I don't want to pay I just I'm just not on top of it enough.

00:02:47
Speaker 2: But yeah, we.

00:02:48
Speaker 1: Started that draft that that league. It's a it's a late round league. We started it via discord the first year that late round fantasy football existed, and the first two years I had the most brutal losses in the playoffs. Imaginable should have won, I mean, just the best team the first two years, and then I'm like, you know what, I'm done.

00:03:08
Speaker 2: I'm blowing this up. So I've been blowing it up ever since.

00:03:11
Speaker 3: I guess it was the fact that I just had to find out that there was this league by happenstance, and I.

00:03:17
Speaker 4: Felt left out for a little bit.

00:03:18
Speaker 3: So it's okay, Berndan Goadola and I are going to have our own. But with that, you can join the Patreon layround dot com and get the overall a dice rankings like you talked about. JJ No more NFL draft stuff, though I erased it from the spreadsheet, and they think that the schedule release will be.

00:03:42
Speaker 4: Around early to mid May.

00:03:45
Speaker 3: So I just put a rough date estimate the schedule release, NFL schedule release, the actual games and stuff.

00:03:55
Speaker 4: You've got every team that will have their own little video out there. I like it. It's become like a new tradition. And it's also for best ball season.

00:04:04
Speaker 3: It's it's important because you figure out like the matchups Seek seventeen. Yeah, some say it's all that matters, but sometimes you just got to get you got to get lucky.

00:04:16
Speaker 4: Let's just let's call it what it is. You got to get lucky to advance there.

00:04:20
Speaker 3: But the it always brings around those conversations, like in the grand scheme of things, Week seventeen is in the NFL just like it's just another week, you know, it's a week before, But in fantasy football, it's a huge week. Everything a week Yeah, it's everything, all right, And that being said, Ja Jay, let's uh, let's get on to it.

00:04:42
Speaker 4: It's today's news.

00:04:45
Speaker 2: Today's fantasy news.

00:04:47
Speaker 3: All right, Let's just recap the draft a little bit, a little bit, because I know you've already had a thirty three minute solo. We got the Draft guide out lots of talk about big boards and everything else, but just give.

00:05:01
Speaker 4: Me your overall overview of how the draft went. Pittsburgh.

00:05:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, first off, I thought the draft itself was really cool in Pittsburgh, as Ayenser, you know, born and raised, I lived there until I was twenty two years old, you know, grew up there and then went to pitt And so it's really cool anytime I'm not in Pittsburgh to just be able to see it in the national spotlight.

00:05:21
Speaker 2: The way that it was.

00:05:21
Speaker 1: And it's really cool to see how people are talking about Pittsburgh after the fact. I saw Peter Schreger, I saw a clip from him where he's like, Pittsburgh was awesome. The people were so friendly, it was amazing. And the city and like people get to see the awesome skyline there and like it's a beautiful, beautiful town, Like it's an awesome, awesome city, and that was really cool to see.

00:05:42
Speaker 4: You know.

00:05:42
Speaker 2: The Eli heiden Reich pick was awesome.

00:05:45
Speaker 1: Three Like that.

00:05:46
Speaker 4: Was a movie right there. That was probably the best.

00:05:48
Speaker 2: Probably the best moment of the draft was the Eli heiden Reig stuff.

00:05:51
Speaker 1: And did you see the subtle like salute that he had in the mirror when he when he picked up his hat and stuff.

00:05:56
Speaker 3: Like it was awesome. Yeah, it was great. The mirror would a cool touch. You also had the the Bain Reuben Bain where he was so fired up. Ye, he was ticked, so he was just getting down to business. He didn't even look in the mirror. He just snatched that hat off and he was ready to get to work.

00:06:16
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, so like I thought that they Like I was shocked because I know the area that they're at in the North Shore, you know, by the by the stadiums and stuff.

00:06:25
Speaker 2: I know it intimately. I've been to. I was very fortunate. I've been to dozens of Steeler games.

00:06:31
Speaker 1: At Hinz Field after Sure not actually I don't think I've been there since they had changed it to Afterture. But like, so, like I know that area and I'm like, oh man, this is gonna be wild to pack that many people in there. But ended up working out really well, So props the city planners and you know, I've talked to people my my yser friends who still live up there and they said that it was the of those who went, they said it was a really great experience. Now from a fantasy football perspective, which is why people are listening to the show and watching the show. It was absolute tra It was so so bad, and I look, people are gonna go out there and they'll say, you'll hear analysts say you know that don't necessarily cover prospecting and don't cover the draft where they're like, oh, well, we get stuff wrong all the time. We don't know who's good and who isn't. Yeah, but we directionally know, you know. The whole point in prospecting, the whole point in analyzing these players and their fit and how good they are, is to not say definitively I know this guy is good or I know this guy's bad. It's to say, I'm going to give myself a better edge than my league bates by knowing how good or bad this player is, especially from a dynasty standpoint versus where they were actually drafted. And you can do that through data. I mean, I have a model that has proven, you know, that's been tested that look, we have This is the fifth iteration of the prospect Guide. Yes, there's been tons of misses because that's what happens with prospecting, but I think that anyone who has had the guide year in and year out, has hopefully been more green than red, you know, in the end. And that's that's a w you know, from a from a fantasy football perspective, because you're beating your league mates more often than not. Now. Uh So, so when I say that this class sucks, and when other analysts say this class sucks, it's not just saying it and like as if we're like super pompous and we just know exactly what's gonna happen, and we we uh you know.

00:08:21
Speaker 2: Are are so into our own evaluations and ourselves.

00:08:24
Speaker 1: It's like, no, we've seen what's gone on historically, and this is not a good class when you compare it to history.

00:08:31
Speaker 2: Right, could it change?

00:08:32
Speaker 1: Sure, But let's not bet on that or let's not just say this is just like any other class because we're wrong all the time.

00:08:38
Speaker 2: I Mean, I just think that's such a such.

00:08:40
Speaker 1: A a loser way to think, you know, like it's just a like the whole point fantasy football is to find those like in any game that you play. You know, you played basketball growing up, kitchen Like you're finding the micro edges to your game all the time. It's not just one giant thing that fixes your game and now everything change is it's these little small things that you're constantly improving. You play golf, it's the exact same thing, right, Fantasy football is another game. It's not you don't have to go out and run and do stuff, but uh, you know, it's another game where you're trying to find these small edges and there's a lot of small edges to be had. So, you know, I look at this draft class and I say, it's really bad the fact that we're getting, you know, Day three running backs where they're going in rookie drafts right now.

00:09:25
Speaker 2: And look, I'm not even I'm not even.

00:09:27
Speaker 1: Faulting the ADP, you know, like I have them going in the places where a lot of the ADP is placing them. It's just that's that's what we're working with with this class. And that that sort of leads into the next item.

00:09:39
Speaker 3: There were Day three running backs because teams weren't selecting any running backs in Day two.

00:09:43
Speaker 2: Well, no one of them.

00:09:44
Speaker 1: One of them was.

00:09:45
Speaker 2: One of them was Kitchen.

00:09:47
Speaker 1: The San Francisco forty nine ers were they were they were drafting Day two running backs.

00:09:52
Speaker 3: Eight were drafting. They're drafting a lot. Speaking of of reaches, I will say before we get into the reach section, I appreciate what you said on the podcast when you said like you were excited to dive into the prospects after the draft this year me too, because like it was such a it just seemed like a lottery just as far as you didn't know what teams were gonna pick where. And I feel I'm not trying to plug the you know, the late round uh, you know prospect guy that you can get over that late round dot com slash guides, but I'm saying that this year more than ever, just needs needed to have some some sort of what are we doing here?

00:10:37
Speaker 2: Well, here's the other thing.

00:10:38
Speaker 1: I I admittedly I don't know if the Prospect Guide is gonna be as helpful as other years with your rookie drafts.

00:10:47
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll just be honest with that.

00:10:48
Speaker 1: Maybe that's really bad salesmanship, I mean, but yeah, what I do think it's gonna do, and what where I do think it's really helpful or going to be helpful is in redraft this year more than other years, Like I think, I think because what we're gonna find is, like I said, I've said the last couple of months on this show, the wide receiver group in this class is so mediocre.

00:11:12
Speaker 2: For how many Day two picks we got. Remember, like the chart that I did either.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: Last week or two weeks ago looking at the number of Day two wide receivers NFL Mock Draft database had projected us to see this year, and it was as many as any other year that we've seen since twenty eleven. Well guess what we got more. We got seventeen of them on Day one and two in the top one hundred, and so what that means is we have a lot and none of them really stand out, like genuinely, There's none that are like, oh man, this wide receiver is so much better than everyone else, Whereas we get that a lot of years.

00:11:44
Speaker 2: Luther Burden last year was that.

00:11:45
Speaker 1: Dude, Luther Burden was very clearly the best wide receiver that was drafted on Day two according to the model. And so we don't have that this year, which means we gotta like read the profiles of these guys.

00:11:56
Speaker 2: I mean, this is why the profile write ups are there. And don't just look at the rankings.

00:12:01
Speaker 1: If you just want the rankings, you can go to Patreon and find the rankings, like get the guides, you can understand who these players are and where they win. And then also when redraft comes around and we start to see that chaos kind of form a little bit more, and you know, there's blurbs about Caleb Douglas for Miami and how he's dominating camp or whatever the case may be, and then you can go read his prospect right up and you can say, oh, well, the prospect model was saying x y z, his analytics look like this. Maybe I shouldn't invest as much as what these beat writers are saying right now. That's relevant in any year, but I think it's more relevant this year because things are just so freaking chaotic.

00:12:38
Speaker 4: Poor Miami, Poor Malik Willis. I'll say that.

00:12:43
Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll be talking about him a lot in the future weeks. Let's talk about another quarterback, though.

00:12:51
Speaker 2: I want to talk about the reaches real quick.

00:12:53
Speaker 4: Oh I thought you just did.

00:12:54
Speaker 2: No.

00:12:55
Speaker 1: No, that was just for general or generally how the draft was going. When it comes to like I have seen, there's been so much discourse. I'm saying in on here on this show, I won't talk about it on the mail Bag. I talked about it a little bit on Actually, I talked about a decent bit on the show that dropped on Monday with the draft recap analyzing front office decision making. I think it's very very important for people to recognize because you're seeing a lot of like fan accounts out there that are tweeting about this. It's very important for people to recognize that when we talk about reaches and we talk about consensus big boards, we are not saying that a player who was very high on the consensus big board who then goes late in the draft or way later, is then a very very good pick.

00:13:39
Speaker 2: Okay, let me give you an example. Let's say that a quarterback was projected to go tenth overall.

00:13:43
Speaker 1: Right, Malik Willis was actually one of these players I think, you know, whenever he came out or you know, there's been other quarterback situation.

00:13:49
Speaker 2: Door Sanders was like that too, I believe. So you know, you look at these quarterbacks that are let's say he's supposed to go tenth overall and he goes.

00:13:55
Speaker 1: One hundredth overall. Okay, you might sit there and be like, oh, consensus big board had him ninety picks. That's a whole lot of value ahead of where he actually got drafted. Therefore, that player, if this consensus big Board hypothesis is correct, that player should far outperform you know, where he was drafted as a one hundredth overall pick. The reality is that does not happen. And you might wonder why would that be the case when reaches and you're sitting here saying that reaches where if the inverse were true, if if he was supposed to go one hundredth overall and he went tenth overall? Why do reaches matter? But values don't.

00:14:32
Speaker 2: And the reason for that is that when values occur, thirty two teams are deciding not to take that player over and over and over again. So you have multiple inputs of teams saying, nah, we don't want this guy, No, we don't want this guy.

00:14:45
Speaker 1: Right.

00:14:46
Speaker 2: When it comes to reaches, it's one team.

00:14:49
Speaker 1: It's just what you just need one team to say I'm gonna get two two at well in the second round. You know, it's just one team that says I need to get Caleb Douglas in round three. We don't know for sure what a the team's thought about that player, whereas we do know for sure what other teams thought about that falling value is that they didn't want that guy. Now, falling values can work out, like Cooper Degen was a falling value. I don't know exactly where his consensus mock draft you know number was, but he was a falling value. He's clearly worked out. Right. The point is that when you do have a reach, Historically, we have hard data at a lot of positions. I'm not saying all positions, but at a lot of positions. And for me, I speak only about fantasy football positions, and I can definitively say at wide receiver, we do see worse production from those players when their reaches running back. It's a little bit, but it's not a big enough deal for me to be like, you gotta just you gotta be like overly worried about this player.

00:15:45
Speaker 2: But at wide receiver.

00:15:46
Speaker 1: And a huge reason for that is because teams can simply say, hey, we drafted this running back in round two when you were supposed to go in round four or five. Therefore we're going to feed this player, right, Because you can just do that at running back and you can't do that a wide receiver. They can run more routes, sure, but they have to be efficient on those routes. When you're on the field as a running back, you just need to get the ball. That's all that matters. So wide receiver, it does matter, and we're going to talk about that with today's data.

00:16:12
Speaker 2: But I think it's a really important idea to throw out there.

00:16:15
Speaker 1: And then the other thing that I want to say, especially with like the forty nine ers and forty nine er account fans out there, Okay, I've seen people be like, Oh, it doesn't matter if the forty niners are reaching, just look at what they do with like George Kittle. Guys, George Kittle went thirty picks after consensus where the consensus had him on the big board.

00:16:33
Speaker 2: Like, this isn't about finding value. Any team can find value.

00:16:37
Speaker 1: And I would argue a lot of Day three picks are going to have way more randomness than you want them to have, right like walking into Brock party, Yes, there's some skill involved in being able to say I'm going to get this guy. He's the last pick in the draft. You want to sit here and say that they knew exactly what brock Purty was going to be. You want to sit here and say that the Patriots knew exactly what Tom Brady was going to be. The real value is the fact that Kyle Shanahan is an awesome head coach and he's able to develop that player into.

00:17:08
Speaker 2: What he is today.

00:17:08
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick saw something in Tom Brady and was able to develop Tom Brady. Right, It's still incredibly lucky to get those players that late in the draft, to get those like, you know, I mean, in Tom Brady's case, the best player of all time, right, And so I do think that's important to like just at least have some humility with this stuff. You can't just say, hey, the good stuff, we were all over that, but the bad stuff we just got unlucky. Now, that's not how this works. You more than likely got pretty lucky with a Day three hit. And when it comes to day one and two, I do think that at least being respectable, like like, at least respecting that big board to a degree is really really important.

00:17:46
Speaker 2: You can reach every once in a while, it's not the end of the world.

00:17:48
Speaker 1: I saw a tweet something along the lines of like reaching is like breaking the law, where like you know you're gonna drive over the speed limit, you might you might break the technically break the law or once in a while, but if you do it over and over and over again, it's a really bad idea, you know. And that's exactly how I view this stuff, where the forty nine ers from a fantasy perspective and from our perspective, they're just so in the center of this right now because they made two reaches on day two and taking design stribbling and then Kaylon Black, Like they were just two very clear reaches.

00:18:18
Speaker 2: And they've done this in the past, especially at running Back.

00:18:20
Speaker 1: So I do think that it's about to me, it's about like arrogance and humility, and it's about these these front offices just saying like.

00:18:28
Speaker 2: No, we know what we need.

00:18:29
Speaker 1: It's like, okay, you might know what you need, but at least do your best to squeeze out as much value as.

00:18:33
Speaker 4: Possible and know the market.

00:18:35
Speaker 3: Like if you want to buy some bananas, buy some bananas, but don't say I'm going to give you twenty bucks for these two bananas, Like you know, I have to know like the market value of them. Hey, from bananas to bananas.

00:18:49
Speaker 4: Some might say.

00:18:50
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers is being tendered as an undrafted or as a unrestricted free agent.

00:19:00
Speaker 2: I think that they know less this year than they did last year.

00:19:04
Speaker 1: He's just Steelers. Okay, they do know less this year than they did last year. However, I think that they probably have a good idea that he's going to be there.

00:19:12
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:19:12
Speaker 3: I just wonder if like a move like that is going to be like he doesn't you know, he likes to play by his own rules, So I wonder what the games when ship is going there. If they don't have Rogers this year, they're screwed.

00:19:26
Speaker 2: Well that's yeah.

00:19:26
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, they're going to have to see what they have and Will Howard and Drew Aller. But I would argue that that's not a bad thing.

00:19:32
Speaker 4: For the franchise. Yeah, because if you're going to be bad, just be really bad.

00:19:36
Speaker 2: Especially this year when they have a good quarterback class next year.

00:19:40
Speaker 3: I will say easy on the good quarterback class next year. If you saw the graphic from how we thought this quarterback class was going to be from last year and.

00:19:49
Speaker 1: Now you're just doing the same thing I talked about the beginning of the show. Oh, we don't know anything about the draft. We were so more terrible at this.

00:19:56
Speaker 2: It's going to be a better quarterback class than this year, is what I'm saying.

00:20:00
Speaker 3: I did laugh though, at the top six of the fifteen that were in like way too early. Like I do appreciate the way too early mock drafts for the next year because of how hilariously bad they are. You know, it gets closer as you see more data input. But we had Titans people saying you shouldn't take cam Ward because the quarterback class this year. I mean, it might have been right, all right, easy, Jayden Reid, we can agree in this. He hits a three year, fifty million dollar deal twenty year or twenty million guaranteed. So good for Jayden Reid who were fans of getting the bag for the Packers.

00:20:46
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, man, every time I update the Dynasty rankings, I update them and then I compare them to like, I try to embed market value a little bit in my rankings because I think it's important. It's an important part of dynasty. So like, you can't just talked about it. Yeah, you can't just go crazy number one, because you could be wrong, like I said, But number two, there's a value component to dynasty where you at least want to maintain that value and it's not just about production. That's the other side of the Dynasty equation. You know, if you don't want to play the value game, then just play Redraft. That's that's what I would say. But Jayden reid Man, the last couple of times that I've updated the rankings, he is a huge value right now. Like, it's kind of crazy how far I think I'm like ten wide receiver spots compared to keep Trade Cut, and people will say, oh, it's keep trade cut. It's terrible.

00:21:33
Speaker 2: Most other places I'm higher than on Jayden Reid.

00:21:37
Speaker 1: Just on the off chance that what if this is the year that they decide to move them around more and they like, we have a very clear and obvious opening. They lose Romeo Dobs, they lose do Tavian Wicks. We have very clear three wide sets for green Bay, and one of those players is Matthew Golden, who I'm actually going to be in on Matthew Golden.

00:21:54
Speaker 2: I think in Redraft this year, I'm not in Dynasty.

00:21:57
Speaker 1: But this is one of those cases where like young player, uh, you know, I I oddly like and Redraft more than I do Dynasty, which is backwards to a lot of people, but the investment is totally different. Matthew Golden's a double digit round pick in Redraft, whereas in Dynasty you're still going to have to spend something relatively significant to get him. But with Jayden Reid, I don't know, man, I mean, I think there's at least some chance we see way more Jayden Reid and two wide receiver sets.

00:22:22
Speaker 2: I felt the same way about Josh Downs a couple of months.

00:22:24
Speaker 1: Ago, uh one, or like a month ago whenever, all the stuff was happening with that wide receiver room, and then they didn't go out and really do anything a wide receiver other than Matt harmon favorite Dion Burks. I had to throw that one out there.

00:22:36
Speaker 4: Nice.

00:22:37
Speaker 1: Uh, I love you Harmon.

00:22:39
Speaker 2: Uh did you see that?

00:22:40
Speaker 1: Him and him and and Jeremiah were talking about Dion Burks on the show, and then Harmon called out the.

00:22:45
Speaker 4: Prospect und of the US. Some are saying, though Burk's is going to be the new Josh Downs there, and.

00:22:51
Speaker 2: Well that's the thing.

00:22:52
Speaker 1: The beautiful part about Burks is that the one wide receiver that they drafted was a slock guy.

00:22:58
Speaker 2: You know, like that's what John like.

00:23:00
Speaker 1: If nothing else, josh Awens is an excellent slot player, and so you know that makes me feel better, even better about how I feel about Josh downs.

00:23:06
Speaker 2: But Jayden Reid's the same thing.

00:23:08
Speaker 1: This is an offense that consistently ranks in the top half of the league in touchdowns per game under the floor. I mean, it's a good offense, a good quarterback, a good situation. And now you only have three wide receivers rotating instead of the six.

00:23:20
Speaker 2: Guys, five guys you would have before, you know, in Green Bay.

00:23:24
Speaker 1: So I am in on Jaden Reid early, best ball, get him, you know, dynasty right now, get him. You could send a second for Jaden Reid easily right now, just given what trade calculators might say. And the second round of rookie drafts right now is absolutely future. I mean, Jayden Reid is a good player.

00:23:40
Speaker 3: Okay, From someone who you really have liked to another person that maybe not have not likes as much.

00:23:50
Speaker 2: I'm no. You can say I missed completely on QJ last year. I missed completely. He was probably one of my biggest.

00:23:56
Speaker 4: Misses last year.

00:23:57
Speaker 3: Well, I mean it wasn't just from you, but yeah, the Charger pick up Qj's fifth year option heading into this season.

00:24:03
Speaker 1: Thoughts on that, Yeah, I mean, I'm not surprised because I think that he can play a role for real football. I do. I am really interested to see Brendan Thompson play in that offense with because QJ has taken a lot of those vertical routes in the offense, but it's a brand new one with Mike McDaniels, so who knows how he's gonna deploy him. I mean, I thought QJ was kind of an interesting name to just throw a dart at earlier this offseason with the Mike McDaniel news, because I think McDaniel's really good at his job.

00:24:30
Speaker 2: And the offense itself. You get your tackles back.

00:24:34
Speaker 1: You know, the run game is should be a lot stronger, you know, Marion Hampton into year two, they get Keaton Mitchell, who I think is a perfect compliment to Hampton.

00:24:41
Speaker 2: Camani Vadell is a good player.

00:24:43
Speaker 1: So their backfield looks great. The offensive line is going to look so much better. Justin Herbert is a is a top ten quarterback from a talent perspective, and then they have these you know, you could you could look at you know, lat McConkie's awesome, right, but then you have a lot of question marks at wide receiver on that team. But that's why you know the market is reflecting that, and you have the rest the infrastructure is there elsewhere. So I'm fine with throwing darts of those players, including a Brennan Thompson in rookie drafts, because he has the skill set in the speed that Mike McDaniel has loved in the past. I don't know if people saw it, but I sent a tweet after Brennan, right after Brendan Thompson was drafted, I sent a tweet that said, it's the most Mike McDaniel, you know what of all time or something like most Mike McDonald something like that of all time. Like it was it was very clearly Mike McDonald pick, Mike McDaniel pick, and then Mike McDaniel. There's a video from the Chargers that came out twenty four hours later and he's like, Hey, what do I gotta do to get Brennan Thompson. Like it was like it was clearly his dude. So I'm very excited to see how they deploy him. You know, he's more than likely going to just be like a fun vertical threat JJ Nelson kind of player. But there is I mean, his number one comp in the model was Tank Dell. The model didn't like tang Dell nearly enough, and it doesn't like Brennan Thompson, I think enough for what he could do within this offense.

00:26:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love those you know, teams are doing more and more those behind the scenes stuff and I can't get enough of it. You know, it's just awesome, all right, oh boy. You know, generally when you have a franchise tag, it goes okay, they signed the you know, the franchise tag, everything works out. That's for like just normal just players and teams. George Pickens might not be as normal of a player. He has yet to sign this tag. At what point do we become concerned because it is George Pickens?

00:26:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think, what's he got to play like week ten or something to a crew season. I remember, like back in the day I was, I was really into the cruel stuff and like understanding like the Yon Bell Yeah, I think it was the Baby on Bell season probably that was probably like understanding, like when he would have to play and uh with pick A, I think now, I think the way the rules are now, it's like week ten or something like that, he could hold out until.

00:27:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I.

00:27:05
Speaker 1: Think it's like a little bit of a risk that you can you can bump him down slightly. But the problem is, I don't think Pickens has the history of.

00:27:13
Speaker 2: Someone who can get away with something like this.

00:27:15
Speaker 1: You know, like there's the Steelers having traded him more rumors.

00:27:20
Speaker 2: Than than facts or evidence.

00:27:22
Speaker 1: I would say of him being like an off the field problem, you know, right, it does seem like it's a case where like the narrative is a little bit more extreme than the reality.

00:27:31
Speaker 2: I just think he's like an interesting dude.

00:27:33
Speaker 1: I mean, remember him in the undraft when he's just like staring at the TV, you know, and like like it's just like a really like I just think he's a different kind of guy. But he's awesome, right, He dominated last year.

00:27:44
Speaker 4: I wanted the Titans to draft him.

00:27:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Cowboys need George Pickens, and so you know, whether that means a long term deal or not, we'll see. But I think that that's part of the problem is that I think Pickens can can ride this out at least a little bit, because I think Dallas needs him more than he might need Dallas in this case.

00:28:08
Speaker 4: In this case, like, what else is there other than this franchise tag?

00:28:11
Speaker 1: What I'm saying you just you just hold out until and then what does that do for your brand and tarnishing your brand further within the NFL and within NFL circles for a future contract? Yeah, I mean, like it's a really I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I have any idea how this is going to go down, But I do think that you probably should at least discount.

00:28:27
Speaker 2: Him a slightly, like a little bit versus where his projection might be.

00:28:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, Diego Pavia three year deal with the Ravens.

00:28:37
Speaker 1: Why are we talking about this?

00:28:39
Speaker 4: I don't know why.

00:28:40
Speaker 1: I mean, you mean, uh, Taysom Pavia is that here? Is that here?

00:28:45
Speaker 2: You're referring to here?

00:28:46
Speaker 3: Hey, some are saying that he is basically the same size as Bryce Young. I I just want to I just want to throw it out there that Diego Pavia is a winner.

00:28:58
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be. I think that I could use him in like a Taysom Hill fashion.

00:29:02
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:29:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's like he just he loves playing football, and we have seen you know, he got the Shadoor treatment.

00:29:12
Speaker 4: And some of that is you know, I.

00:29:14
Speaker 1: Mean he kind of got the treatment, kind of he kind of got the shoot or treatment.

00:29:19
Speaker 4: Well. But loved people loved the fact that he was not drafted. I will say that, Yeah.

00:29:23
Speaker 2: But Chador is a better prospect than Pappy.

00:29:26
Speaker 4: Depends on what you're looking for.

00:29:28
Speaker 3: I guess is in the Colorado Hall of Fame, all right, though, I just want to put that there. Also, we have word that maybe uh Surrant there is going to be playing slot for the Ravens.

00:29:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:29:41
Speaker 1: There was a Da Casa quote talking about how they see Elijah Surrat as a good inside player and it's so interesting and I wanted to bring this up on today's show because early in the process, back in like January, when I really start looking at these prospects in more detail. During that time, I'm texting Matt Harmon, who I had made fun of earlier. I'm texting him a lot, like we're buddies and we're going back and forth about players. I'm letting him know what the model is seeing and these guys, and he's letting me know what he's seeing with these guys. And with Elijah Surrat, it was interesting because his breakout score I think was like fifth or sixth best in this class. Like it was, it was pretty strong age justin production and one of the things that But then he had a really high contested catch rate or target rate. And I guess catch rate too is decent, but his his contested target rate was really high.

00:30:32
Speaker 2: And then you go.

00:30:33
Speaker 1: Watch Elijah Surratt and a lot of it last year as Mendoza trusting him in these highly contested situations and just kind of throwing it up like eight to ten yards down the field and Elijah Surratt coming down with the ball.

00:30:47
Speaker 2: And then I looked at his comps in the ZAP model, and his first two comps, like by far were Michael Thomas and Pat Bryant, both guys who were drafted by Sean Payton.

00:30:57
Speaker 1: So I made the joke that Sean Payton would go out for him, but obviously they weren't going to do that because they don't they didn't need a guy like Surrat.

00:31:04
Speaker 2: But both those guys were players who moved into.

00:31:09
Speaker 1: The slot and played a lot of slot and were kind of inside out players.

00:31:13
Speaker 2: But found Holmes is a big slot Now, Sean.

00:31:15
Speaker 1: Payton is kind of famous for making you know, Marcus Colston back in the day. You know, he did it with Michael Thomas. He has these big slot players that he's not afraid to use. Pat Bryant played in the slot a lot last year, but I could have seen I could envision that given the production profile so strong. But there were some visual things that people were seeing about his separation and ability on the perimeter. It did make sense. You know, Harmon's talked about big slots and power slots a lot, like he thought key On Coleman was that, and I think he nailed it. And I think that this is the same thing with Elijah Surrat. The difference is that it seems like the Ravens understand that, and that to me.

00:31:52
Speaker 2: Is really like being that. Yeah, that to me is really enticing.

00:31:55
Speaker 1: They lose Isaiah, likely they could use a Surrat as sort of that kind of player in the middle of the field. You know, Mark Andrews is older. And then they get to Kobe Lane, who I think is a very much a perimeter He doesn't separate that well either, but very much like a perimeter presence that you know, as again to say what Harmon would say, like more of a sacrificial X in that in that offense, and then Zay Flowers can kind of move everywhere. So I like Surrat, you know, I think that he deserved to be up one tier versus the rookie rankings that I published. I haven't really changed that much with my rookie rankings, not enough to send an update, and it's just so flat that it's not that big of a deal. And you can kind of read the prospect profiles to see how I feel about these guys. But I am really really interested in Elijah Surat's role within this Ravens offense if he is going to be a slot All.

00:32:46
Speaker 3: Right, JJ, are you ready to get hurt again? Because Jonathan Brooks is reportedly close to one percent for the Carolina Panthers.

00:32:56
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm drafting Jonathan Brooks this year. I know, I know it's gonna happened. He was a good prospect, Yeah, the model liked him obviously.

00:33:06
Speaker 2: He's just had such a hard time, you know, staying healthy.

00:33:10
Speaker 1: But Cheuba Hubbard to me was better down the stretch last year for sure, but still has the same red flags that he had going into last year, and those red flags pointed me to Rico Dwdell And that was the reason that I was profitable in Best Ball was because of my Rico Dawdle exposure. And so if we continue to.

00:33:25
Speaker 2: See a big, big gap between Brooks and Shuba.

00:33:28
Speaker 1: Hubbard, I will be more in on Brooks than I will be on Hubbard. I probably won't fade Hubbard as much as I did last year, just because of where he goes and what's going on around him and drafts.

00:33:39
Speaker 2: And this is obviously I.

00:33:40
Speaker 1: Mean we're recording this at the end of April, so I have no idea, but I am interested in Jonathan Brooks just giving that profile.

00:33:47
Speaker 4: Okay, we had word that Jerry Judy was going to be the bell cow out of Cleveland. Lol.

00:33:59
Speaker 3: But I want to add something here. Someone posted this in our chat, So if this is fake, just know that this is in the news and rumors chat, but from the Daily News there on Blues.

00:34:11
Speaker 4: This is from Lion's Pajamas.

00:34:12
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson has the inside track to be named QB one per Mary Kay there at the with the Browns beat.

00:34:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean like she's she's usually yeah, so if she said it, yeah, then yeah, yeah, I mean I'm not that surprised. It's not like shoud Or Sanders was that good last year, right, in fact, should Sanders was bad last year?

00:34:31
Speaker 4: Yeah?

00:34:32
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, like I I don't think Deshaun Watson is that good, but I the one thing I'll say about Cleveland and the Jets too, but more so Cleveland, he's a.

00:34:42
Speaker 4: Lot about them.

00:34:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, Is that Todd Munkin is a good offensive coach? Like, I don't. I don't even think that he's mediocre. Now is he gonna be able to be a good NFL head coach? I don't know, But from like an offensive mind standpoint, I.

00:34:57
Speaker 2: Don't mind Todd Munkin at all.

00:35:00
Speaker 1: And so I'm at least a little intrigued about how things can shift and change, you know, year over year for Cleveland's offense, and maybe he can get something more out of Deshaun Watson, who knows.

00:35:10
Speaker 4: Okay, we spent a lot Jerry Judy stuff.

00:35:14
Speaker 1: I'mnna ignore.

00:35:14
Speaker 3: I don't care about I just I put Eloa just because it's pretty funny. They draft too highly regarded.

00:35:20
Speaker 4: Rookies, rookie receivers.

00:35:22
Speaker 1: But look, Jerry Judy could be out next year with a given his contract, and Cedric Tillman is a free agent.

00:35:28
Speaker 2: So you know, a lot of teams whenever they draft, a lot.

00:35:31
Speaker 1: Of teams are looking for the following year as oppose just this single year. But I think the best wide receiver on that team is Casey Concepcio.

00:35:39
Speaker 3: All Right, we spent a lot of time talking about news and notes, so time to I don't know, maybe.

00:35:44
Speaker 4: Stretch because we've got some reaches when we talk about next.

00:35:49
Speaker 3: Today's data, all right, these are wide receiver reaches since twenty sixteen.

00:35:55
Speaker 4: JJ.

00:35:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I just wanted to show you guys the data.

00:35:59
Speaker 1: This is something I put on Twitter and then I talked about it a little bit at the end of the show the other day. But you can see visually these are the players who lost four or more points in value. Those are av points if you will approximate value points from Chase Stewart's value chart of four more points for their teams. So this is the thing design shribbling. I kind of feel bad for him because he didn't ask for this. Yeah, Like he didn't ask to be the thirty third overall pick. I'm sure he's really happy, but like the dude. Now, like if he busts, you know, everyone's gonna be like, oh, what a huge bust. And but like there's more eyes on him to if you were a fourth round pick, it wouldn't be nearly that big of a deal, right, But yeah, I mean, you can see three of the top five biggest reaches a wide receiver since twenty sixteen. And this is via NFL mock Draft database. And I said it at the top note to self, talk about why reaches matter but values don't. I already talked about that, so we're gonna believe that. But the three of the top five eaches since twenty sixteen, and this compares the actual value of the NFL pick minus where that player was supposed to go in value. Right, So not just raw pick, because raw pick doesn't tell you that much. When you're looking at Day three players and they go fifty picks higher, that's irrelevant.

00:37:18
Speaker 4: Right.

00:37:18
Speaker 1: So Corey Davis and Deontay Johnson were the top two biggest reaches and then you get Caleb Douglas, design Shribbling, and Xavian Thomas. So you know, you can look at this list and you can eyeball it and be like this is not the best list, but even when you compare to how they were expected to perform, like I said on that show earlier this week, the vast majority of them underperform versus expectation. I mean, you can see it does Fitzpatrick, you know, one of kitchens faves, I'm sure.

00:37:48
Speaker 2: You know. And then Kayden Weigen's on here too at the bottom.

00:37:51
Speaker 1: The Steelers drafted him pretty early, but he's just a special teams guy. But like Johan Dotson, Kenny Galladay was one of the hits. Actually, Jalen Raker obviously one of the biggest draft busts of our you know, era Jalen heard another forty nine Ers player that they drafted.

00:38:08
Speaker 2: Cardinal Tates on here.

00:38:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that it's just an early round pick. I mean, Corey Davis, you could argue it's the same kind of deal, but it is a little bit, you know, something to keep in mind with Cardinal Tate.

00:38:21
Speaker 4: I saw a Facebook memory where I was like, Corey Davis so miles ahead of all the.

00:38:27
Speaker 3: Other wide receivers, and I'm just like, I hope that's not It was like literally the day after they drafted Tait. I will say, though des Fitzpatrick I did not like that pick. You know, I liked more than des Fitzpatrick in the fourth round.

00:38:41
Speaker 4: Who's that a mon Ross? Saint Brown?

00:38:44
Speaker 1: Oh?

00:38:45
Speaker 2: Was that the same Drave I don't even remember.

00:38:46
Speaker 3: Yes, it was, I remember clearly, so you know what could have been. It's all right, let's get on to it. It's the main event.

00:38:56
Speaker 2: It's the late round, main event.

00:38:58
Speaker 1: I think we should shield some of the stuff, some of the future picks here that are showing.

00:39:03
Speaker 4: Up on the list. All right, I'll shield it.

00:39:06
Speaker 2: Now, you guys know.

00:39:08
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna look at my rankings versus current average draft position.

00:39:15
Speaker 2: I pulled this from Dynasty Data Lab.

00:39:17
Speaker 1: Which is a great resource for ADP and this is for drafts that have happened Monday and Tuesday, approximately eleven hundred drafts.

00:39:25
Speaker 2: And this is super flex.

00:39:26
Speaker 1: It's a lot easier to talk super flex this year because there's only like one quarterback we care about, and then maybe Ty Simpson and then a bunch of second rounders. But I'm gonna talk about some of those guys later in the show. Let's compare. Okay, the first guy in this list that I think is important to talk about and call out. I'm not just going with like second rounders and third rounders. And I also didn't want to do that because there's a lot of variation with round two and Round three rookie picks this year that even if I have them ranked relatively different, it's still really flat and it's not as big of a deal. I mean, I think one of my stands that I've take is that and they're in the same tier to be fair, but I do have Jordan Tyson above Fernanda Mendoza and Carnal Tait. Jordan Tyson ended up with a Prospect score a Zapp score of ninety six in the model. Carnel Tait was a little bit below that, and technically they are in two different categories. Jordan Tyson was a legendary performer and Carnal Tate is an elite producer. Now I got a tweet and I got a question about this, where the tweet was something along the lines of like how high would Cardinal Tate have to go in order to be an elite producer.

00:40:34
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be looking at it that way.

00:40:35
Speaker 1: Don't look at the categories as like, oh you have like CARNL Tait at a score of eighty eight and elite producers start at ninety.

00:40:43
Speaker 2: He's not far off from being an elite producer, right.

00:40:46
Speaker 1: So it's like those categories and those buckets are there for you to be able to quickly glance and understand how the model is generally viewing these players and what these scores and these score ranges generally mean. I could change the range of these of these categories and do it arbitrarily and it wouldn't change the like how they score and what these players actually are.

00:41:09
Speaker 2: So the one thing I'll say, though, I think Jordan.

00:41:11
Speaker 1: Tyson is the better prospect compared to Carnell Tate at the very least, I think he has a higher ceiling than him. I don't mind the fit at all with New Orleans. I talked about that on the show that dropped on Monday. And let's just talk about his breakout score, which is the number one driver for a production standpoint in the model. Breakout score is schedule and age adjusted receiving guards per team pass attempt. It's a score from zero to one hundred, and Jordan Tyson had a ninety nine percentile breakout score breakout score correlates just as well to draft capital for top one hundred wide receivers and their success in the NFL since twenty eleven. So it's a very very important metric, and only nine ZAP model wide receivers draft in the top twenty have had a mark a breakout score above ninety Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Corey Davis. Okay, some bus in there, Lamb Jamar Chase, Chris Alave, Jackson Smith and Jigbum Malik Neighbors. I mean it is that like when you hear that list, you might be like, oh, you know, Sammy Watkins wasn't that great, which sure, you know he didn't have the best career in the world.

00:42:14
Speaker 2: Or Corey Davis was a bust. Okay, I get it.

00:42:16
Speaker 1: Wide receivers are going like, we're not talking top twenty draft capital at running back where you're just gonna see hit after hit after hit. Wide receivers, there's going to be a lot more variance with who hits and who doesn't that in the in the in the context of being a wide receiver ranking if you will, or group is a really great group to be part of for a prospect, and for a wide receiver prospect. So to me, Jordan Tyson, I would take him one oh two in superflex. You could argue Mendoza if you really want a quarterback. But I do like Tyson more than Carnell Tate. Do I like him a ton more than Tate? No, they're in the same tier, But I would take Tyson over Tate if I had one dynasty.

00:42:55
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the next one. I have shielded the rest of these picks.

00:43:01
Speaker 1: Casey Conceptsion, Yeah, I had a feeling this was gonna happen with Conceptscione, where you know, I have him ranked one ZHO six and super flex he goes one oh eight, And that might not seem like that big of a difference, but it's relatively big when you're talking about just two picks, and he you know, he'll go after Sadik. I think he has a lower ADP than at this.

00:43:19
Speaker 2: Moment, and I would not be doing that.

00:43:21
Speaker 1: I think that Conceptcione is not far off as a prospect compared to Makhaya Lemon. In fact, the zapp model has like one point separating the two. I would still prefer Lemon, but I think Conceptsione is a really good player. I like the fit with Todd Munkin, and what Munkin was able to do is Zay Flowers, who if you squint, you know you could you could maybe make the argument like Conceptscion's like a better, bigger version.

00:43:45
Speaker 2: Of but he got good draft capital.

00:43:48
Speaker 1: There is lots of competition, But like I said earlier, Cleveland's wide receiver room could be without Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman as early as next year.

00:43:55
Speaker 2: Not only that, Cleveland's probably not gonna be very good, and.

00:43:58
Speaker 1: So They're gonna probably go out and get quarterback and that could completely change the dynamic of this offense. Whereas you know, a guy like Mkaye Lemon, who I do have higher, but Jalen.

00:44:07
Speaker 2: Hurts is probably their quarterback for the immediate future more than likely.

00:44:11
Speaker 1: And we know that that Jalen Hurts offenses have been more run heavy. They have not had a single season with a pass rate over expected above zero. And so you know, I think Jalen Hurts as a quarterback is probably better than anything Cleveland's gonna get, like from a median's outcome standpoint. But at the same time, I think Conceptcione, you know, could get a better quarterback eventually on that team, and also, you know, could just be the best in the number one target on his team, whereas it might be a little bit more for McKay Lemon to climb with DeVante Smith. I'm not making the argument that Conceptsion is better than Lemon as a pick, but I am making the argument that they belong in the same tier, and I am making the argument that Casey Conceptsion is a little bit undervalved.

00:44:55
Speaker 4: Okay, get to the next one.

00:44:58
Speaker 2: This is fun because I don't even remember who next.

00:45:00
Speaker 1: Antonio Antonio Williams, a guy that I drafted in the late round league right before we hopped on Nice Show.

00:45:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I have Jayden Daniels, so I was able to to stack him up.

00:45:10
Speaker 1: Antonio Williams a really interesting player to me because his analytical profile is solid but not outstanding, because he started producing really early in his collegiate career at Clemson and then it just never got significantly better.

00:45:25
Speaker 2: Now we talked about Antonio Williams, you remember.

00:45:27
Speaker 1: Like like a month and a half ago, maybe liked him more than Yeah. Compared ADP bestball ADP to my rookie rankings, and he was the biggest gap in terms of my rookie rankings pre draft. Liking Antonio Williams more than where he was going in redraft, and I still like him more because the landing spot is super interesting. His top comp in the ZAP model was Lad mconkie. Now, McConkie had a better you know, open the hood. Look at his yards per route run, look at his per route run numbers that aren't going in the ZAPP model. Ladd McConkey looked better there. But both players had comparable breakout scores, had comparable you know, versatility in their production profiles where they would get some you know, end to rounds and get some work on the.

00:46:14
Speaker 2: Ground and so.

00:46:15
Speaker 1: And they were similarly sized, and you know, Ladd was projected to be a slot but he didn't play as much in the slot. The thing is, Antonio Williams played a lot in the slot seventy eight percent slot rate in college.

00:46:25
Speaker 2: That's a little bit harder to project, you know.

00:46:28
Speaker 1: With mconkey, it was like, Okay, he might not have played a ton in the slot, but he's a smaller dude, so we're going to project him for the slot. But at least he had more experience playing on the outside. Antonio Williams doesn't have as much of that experience. There's much more of a projection that has to go on here. But they've already come out and said that he could play slot and Z opposite of Terry McLaurin in this offense. And right now when you look at the offense, they don't have anything outside of those guys. Now, Brandon Ayuk might sign there, we'll see. But I think that the landing spot, combined with so much so many question marks a wide receiver in this class. I like Antonio Williams a little bit above Adp.

00:47:08
Speaker 4: All right, j Jay, this next person?

00:47:10
Speaker 3: Uh man, there are gonna be possibly some accusations here.

00:47:16
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe because you have Jeremy Bernard. Is this a home er pick?

00:47:21
Speaker 2: No?

00:47:21
Speaker 4: I mean, look this, you've had Lemon there.

00:47:25
Speaker 2: This is a This is a pick that I just find interesting.

00:47:31
Speaker 1: Like the model doesn't mind Jeremy Bernard, doesn't love him, but doesn't mind him. Saw him as like a comparable prospect to Denzel Boston, two different types of prospects. But from a score perspective, he goes in like the late seconds sometimes I think people are being really shortsighted about this landing spot for Pittsburgh. Where Number one, Mike McCarthy's actually favored slot receivers in his history, so that's good. Number Two, I think that he can play both inside out, but he's definitely gonna start in the slot with with Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf there, but they have an out in both of those contracts as soon as next season, right, So it's it's just an interesting profile, especially when you give some of his production metrics some context. He played at Michigan State, and when he was there he played with Keon Coleman and Jayden Reid. He then played it in Washington with Jalen McMillan, Roma Dunza and Jalen Polk and Denzel Boston by the way, where he had a better yards parah run than Denzel Boston on that team, and then he played with Ryan Williams. I mean, like, he's played with legitimate wide receiver competition and he's still.

00:48:33
Speaker 2: Put up respectable numbers, you know, despite that.

00:48:36
Speaker 1: So I think Bernard is you know, in most drafts, he'd be like a late second, early third, maybe even, but at least like a late second, you know, rookie pick, and now he goes two five on average, but I've seen him go even way later than that. He's probably not gonna dominate. He's probably not gonna be a stud. And maybe that's playing a role here because I don't think that he's gonna be like a super high volume and highly productive player. But if you need like a floor, if you're in like a deep dynasty league, I think Jeremy Bernard makes a lot of sense where you have like a lot of guys you're starting in your starting roster.

00:49:07
Speaker 3: Okay, well, at least that will be the last Steeler on this list.

00:49:12
Speaker 4: Oh wait, you've got.

00:49:14
Speaker 3: Carson yeah, which I agree with this take.

00:49:20
Speaker 2: Yeah. So look the Drew Aller thing.

00:49:22
Speaker 1: I have him ranked lower in my Dynasty rankings now, like I'm getting my rankings out for the prospect guy like immediately after the draft, and uh, you know, it's it's hard to like there's no consensus at all. I'm putting those rankings together without knowing what anyone feels. And then on top of that, you know, it's just it's just there, like things.

00:49:41
Speaker 2: Can change as I start thinking about this stuff.

00:49:43
Speaker 1: Carson Beck though I think he's gonna get a start this year.

00:49:47
Speaker 2: Like, I think he's going to play at some point this season.

00:49:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, and anytime you see that in super Flex, that becomes valuable just just naturally. Right with Drew Aller, it's this is a Mike McCarthy situation. You know, it's a brand new coaching staff. They didn't draft Will Howard, so maybe they'll be able to work with the tools and stuff. But yeah, I mean, like I think Aler probably should be more third round, but Carson Beck, to me and super Flex should be a second round pick because the opportunity cost and getting a player like that is so small given this draft class.

00:50:16
Speaker 2: Yes, the the hit rate for.

00:50:18
Speaker 1: Him is so small, but I also think you're gonna potentially gain value with Carson Beck towards the end of this year, and you could flip him before the offseason starts, when Arizona's probably not gonna be a very good team and they're gonna be linked to a bunch of quarterbacks in next year's class.

00:50:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, Beck not only has an option to like start later in the season, he could start at the beginning of the season.

00:50:39
Speaker 2: Maybean, especially with the Jacobe Brissett st right.

00:50:40
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna expect that to happen, but I think that he, Like I wonder what his if his over under starts this year's point five, I'd take the over.

00:50:50
Speaker 4: I think it's more than point five from what I saw. We'll have to take a look at that, all right.

00:50:54
Speaker 3: Next, we've got Eli Rarid and there were a lot of smoke that the Patriots We're gonna take stours in the second or at the end of the first round.

00:51:06
Speaker 4: That did not happen. They get to Eli Raridon.

00:51:09
Speaker 2: Though, I'm kind of shocked by Raredan's ADP.

00:51:11
Speaker 4: I am too.

00:51:12
Speaker 3: I'm actually like I drafted him in a few drafts and a few Beastball drafts afterwards, in the late rounds too, just because like you've got an aging Hunter Henry there, and this guy is a pass catching back or pass getting tight end.

00:51:27
Speaker 1: You also don't have like the most robust wide receiver room. I mean, they're gonna get a J. Brown, I think Romeo Dobbs, those two can play in two wide receiver sets. But you know they have Kyle Williams and Kishan Boudi where there's rumors that they're trying to get Rid of Booty. Uh, you know they have They have some slot guys and like Chisholm and the Mario Douglass and stuff, but none of them are like scary, right, even Romeo Dobbs. I don't think it's that scary of a wide receiver like that was my take when they signed him. It's just like it's uninspiring.

00:51:53
Speaker 2: Like I think he's a good solid wide out, but from a fantasy perspective, he's not gonna command a twenty five percent target share even and if they didn't get aj Brown.

00:52:02
Speaker 1: But now they get a player in Raridan who look is forty yard dash eightieth percentile among ZA Model tight ends. Height adjustin speed score eighty fourth percentile, which is the one of the metrics that goes into the model. His best season in yards per team passing time seventy first percentile.

00:52:15
Speaker 2: His breakout score.

00:52:16
Speaker 1: Which is agent schedule adjusted seventy fourth percentile. So he was productive and relatively athletic. And now he's on a team with Drake May and Hunter Henry's a free agent next year.

00:52:27
Speaker 2: So to me, Eli Ridan's the tight end three in this class.

00:52:30
Speaker 1: I have him behind Kenyon Sadik and Eli Stowers, and I'm a little bit surprised that he goes as late as he does in rookie drafts.

00:52:39
Speaker 3: All right, so let's package these next two together. We talked about the reaches earlier Kayln Black and a Jon Striplin.

00:52:46
Speaker 1: I'm shockingly ahead of market on the forty nine ers guys. And I don't mean that as in go out and get them. I just mean I want to talk about this for a second because it's a little bit strange, and I don't think either of them are very good prospects. But this is just the nature of this class where I'm going to let draft capital, situation, whatever the case may be, influence this a little bit, because the opportunity cost is other players who I think aren't very good, that you know, are in worst landing spots. Right, So with Kaylon Black, my ADP or sorry, my rank is in the middle of the third, is ADP is the early fourth, and then with the shribbling, I'm about three spots higher than where he gets drafted. Right with Kaylon Black, I mean, if you want to just like shorthand this and explain why I wouldn't like him long term or don't love him, he's a twenty four and a half year old running back that has good size but does not.

00:53:42
Speaker 2: Have a receiving profile, or at least a strong receiving profile.

00:53:45
Speaker 1: That's that's those are both big red flags. But again, this class sucks. Not only that Kyle Shanahan has a really bad history with these running backs and these guys that he takes in round three. So like, overall, yes, Kaylon Black very scary, but you get to a point where the opportunity costs is a lot of scary like irrelevant guys that I just don't have any hope for. So I'm just calling that out in that at least the situation's good design stribbling. Let's talk about him for a little bit, because I think he's a little bit more enticing as a prospect at his position than Kaylon Black is to his because a lot of the day two wide receivers I've said this a million times, had pretty crummy analytical profiles. They're not profiles that I'm jumping for joy over, even like Chris Bell. I think Chris Bell has an interesting ceiling. I ranked him pretty high, but I also recognize that his overall analytical profile is not that strong. Jacoby Lane. It's fine, it's just not unbelievably strong. There's just dudes, it's one wide receiver after another who just have these kind of like uninspiring analytical profiles. So can I sit here and say a fiftieth breakout fiftieth percentile breakout score is better than a thirty first percentile breakout score. Yes, and that's why I ranked a lot of those guys ahead of a design Stribling. But can I sit here and say that there's such a significant difference that you absolutely have to take those guys over Stribling. No, you know, like, realistically, a fortieth to fiftieth percentile breakout score it's better, but it's not so dramatically better that you have to absolutely make that choice. Then you layer on, you know, the situation that he's in is not bad. Uh, And the draft CAPA league got was excellent, and you can understand why you should throw that dart at the end of round two and into round three on Stribling in a super flex lee. That being said, let's look at the negatives. Since twenty eighteen top one hundred draft picks greater than twenty two years old, Stripling is over twenty three. I think the chance of Stribling hitting is are very small, so he's so this is a top one hundred pick older than twenty two, less than a forty breakout score and less than a two point zero career yards per out run rate. I'll just read the list Dante Pettis, Jalen Heard, Miles Boyk, and Terry McLaurin. He's always the outlier of outliers when I do these queries Van Jefferson, Dayles Jones, Michael Wilson.

00:56:09
Speaker 2: But he was also very easy to.

00:56:10
Speaker 1: Acquire before this past year took him, took him a minute, Xavier Lagette, Jalen Polk, Ricky Piersall. Has he done anything yet though? Saveon Williams, Jack Besh, Caleb Douglass and.

00:56:21
Speaker 2: De Stribbling, It's not It's just not a good list. So I fully understand the the the uh.

00:56:31
Speaker 1: The hit rate here for a profile like this is very very small, but you have to look at it when you're when you're looking at game theory and you're looking at the ADP board, you have to say to yourself, Okay, but what about this guy is going after him?

00:56:44
Speaker 2: Is his hit rate very high? No, it's not. I mean, that's that's what we're looking at with these day two wide receivers.

00:56:50
Speaker 1: Like the majority of them, if not all of them, have major, major red flags.

00:56:55
Speaker 2: And that's why rookie drafts just kind of sucked this year.

00:57:01
Speaker 4: All right, let's say goodbye, jj uh. I did go.

00:57:06
Speaker 3: Back and look and sure enough Deshaun Watt Watson that that report was true, that they think that he has the inside track to be QB one. That was a guy I mean, and you talk about best baller lately.

00:57:21
Speaker 2: A few years ago I drafted a lot of Deshon wat Oh.

00:57:23
Speaker 4: I did too. I am like this.

00:57:25
Speaker 3: It became a part of my brand, unfortunately, because I thought that he was such a good value. So you know, sometimes we learn, sometimes we don't, and we'll see what happens there. I will say, though, we've got the late Round newsletter that has been going out to free lateround dot com. You can go there to sign up for that. You can also go to lightround dot com for the Patreon link to join our community, get in a discord. And then we got the Prospect Guide over there as well.

00:57:57
Speaker 4: JJ. Do you have any final thoughts?

00:58:00
Speaker 1: Look there there's content everywhere, right, I don't even mean for late round Fantasy football, but in general in general, Like I get that there's content everywhere. I can at least tell you guys that I try to be as thoughtful as I possibly can with the prospect and content. Like I said at the top, things are going to be wrong. That's just the nature of prospecting. But we want to be directionally right. And I know that the model is really strong, and I feel good about what we did. I feel great about what we did, you know, with the prospect guy, you know, getting it out on Saturday night.

00:58:30
Speaker 2: We worked really hard and doing that and I hope that it really showed. And then shout out.

00:58:35
Speaker 4: To Godula again. I know, yes, you know, he's he did great.

00:58:39
Speaker 3: And this was such a clutch year to have him help with tight end profile.

00:58:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, because the tight end stuff was just crazy. So he did an awesome job writing up or rewriting up. He actually wrote up every single tight end that was drafted.

00:58:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there were a lot, so he he crushed it.

00:58:57
Speaker 1: And I'm really excited for what we're going to be doing with late round because I feel like this is kind of like a.

00:59:03
Speaker 2: Turn the page moment.

00:59:05
Speaker 1: With the football calendar, and I'm incredibly excited for what we're gonna be doing with Late Round Fantasy Football, and you guys are going to see a lot of that over the next two or.

00:59:15
Speaker 3: Three weeks, hopefully a little little teaser from JJ. So yeah, make sure that you are following us on our socials.

00:59:22
Speaker 4: Got a lot of.

00:59:22
Speaker 3: Fun stuff coming up, DJ's it'll it will be a very fun off season. So we appreciate everyone for tuning in, for being interactive, and we love you all. We love you all, and we'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.