Noah Hiles dives into Pirates latest selling frenzy and rebuild

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Speaker 1: The Pirates aren't really a team that ever looks to trade a piece when they can't get maximum value.

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Speaker 2: What incentive do you have to sign an extension with.

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Speaker 3: Noah Hiles is whether us Pirates beat writer for the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Noah, great to talk to you. Very busy times for you despite the team not playing good ball, because we might have some longer term team control names that move at the trade deadline, so we want to hit you right away with the good stuff. Do you think one of the quote core members of the Pirates will be moved at this trade deadline?

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Speaker 1: I do. I think there is a high likelihood at least one of those guys removed, the core members being the three players that Ben Sherrington extended in his six years at the Helm here, those three being Mitch Keller, Cabrian Hayes, Brian Reynolds. I think there is a very high likelihood we see Mitch Keller moved, and I think there's a fair chance we see Cabrian Hayes moved as well.

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Speaker 4: I want to talk a little bit about Mitch Kellor, play with him and my last year coming up. I think this guy's an absolute study throws the ball hard, He's not afraid to control the game. I can see a lot of teams picking him up. I feel like you could get a lot back for him too as well. What are your thoughts on him and what you can get back for him.

00:01:21
Speaker 1: I totally agree. I think there's a lot of value attached to this guy. You look at the years of control, He's got three more after this season. His price tag, I mean, it's high for a market like this one here in Pittsburgh, but most teams who are regularly competing in the postseason, they're willing to pay what Mitch is making, which is fifteen million this year, and I believe it goes all the way up to twenty over the next three years. But it's still a reasonable price for what he produces. What do you get from him? You get a guy who's gonna make thirty starts.

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Speaker 2: You get a guy.

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Speaker 1: In those thirty starts, he's probably gonna go five plus innings in twenty eight of them. He's gonna cover innings. His era is gonna be in the high threes, are the low fours. When it's all said and done. He's productive. He's not an ace on any staff. But he's someone who's gonna start games for you in playoff series. He's someone who's gonna, you know, cover a lot of innings and be very reliable, stay healthy and productive.

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Speaker 5: All right, where's the value? Where's the value in the other two guys that you mentioned, Key Brian Hayes Brian Reynolds. Obviously Key Brian Hayes's value is in defense, and Brian Reynolds is having a down year. So for the Pirates, who are historically stingy, historically cheap, there are two guys that are gonna cost them money. They are they looking to just dump these contracts in reality, obviously they want a prospect. Obviously they want to ruin I mean, get some other prospects, you know, from the other organization and ruin their career, I mean, get them in the big leagues, because they don't know when to bring them up or send them down or make adjustments. But which of these two guys will command more for the Pirates, whether it's getting rid of the money or bringing back more prospects.

00:03:04
Speaker 1: It's a tough question because I think if they could choose between one of those two guys, Hayeser or Reynolds, I think they'd rather get rid of Hayes simply because I don't think they've gotten anywhere close to the value from him since they signed him to that extension. Other teams look at that deal and see it as pretty affordable. I mean, for the Pirates, it's still one of their highest paid players, and I mean the value I guess for another team is, like you mentioned, there's defense there. It's an affordable contract, and if you're a team with a lot of productive bats in the lineup, you might be willing to take on a glove tool guy who can just help you in one area but provides a lot of help. Whereas Reynolds, I think the value with moving him is pretty much all financial right now. I mean, he's not playing anywhere close to what he has in the last couple of seasons. He's regressed dramatically in the field the last couple of years. His ops has kind of gone down every single season since signing that extension. He's still a productive hitter coming into this year. You know, he's an All Star just as recently as last year, but this has just been a really bad year for him. I wouldn't completely write him off. I think it might just be a down year. I could see him rebounding. I could see teams thinking that, hey, a change of scenery, getting this guy in a lineup with a little bit more protection, take a little more pressure off or less pressure off of him. Maybe you get more value out of him there. But the Pirates aren't really a team that ever looks to trade a piece when they can't get maximum value. And I think if they'd be selling Brian Reynolds, they'd be selling him when his stocks maybe at the all time low.

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Speaker 4: Very interesting. Let me ask you this, Paul Skeins, he hasn't thrown over rady eight pitches since June nineteenth. I know he's a stud. He looks good. Anytime he throws. There's a way they're going to win the game. Is this hurting his cy Young contention a little bit?

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Speaker 5: Though?

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Speaker 1: If it persists, I think it might. But I mean you still got to look. This guy's in the top five in baseball and pretty much every statistical category. Now, if they start skipping some start days and they only let him throw five innings every start for the remainder of the season, two things in which I do not anticipate them doing, then that could hurt his cy young candidacy, But I still think Paul's on pace to flirt with two hundred innings pitched this year if he gets that mark.

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Speaker 2: I mean, only four guys got there last year.

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Speaker 1: I think they just looked at it where you know, this team isn't doing anything significant, you know, team wise, this year, and it wouldn't make a ton of sense to have Paul skiings log two hundred and twenty innings. He threw one hundred and sixty and a third last year between Triple A and the Majors. I think they'd like to get him around that one ninety to two hundred mark somewhere in between that those two figures by the end of the season, and in order to get there, they needed to cool him down a little bit. I anticipate him having a little bit of a longer leash for most of his starts, but there will be a couple of outings here in the second half where he goes in knowing he's only getting five ups, or he knows he's only gonna get ninety pitches, or there might be a couple of weeks where they use the off day and then build in a bullpen day to get him an extra day of rest. But I don't think any of it's going to really impact his cy young candidacy.

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Speaker 5: I feel like he's a guy that'd be really pissed off during that time when he's missing a start, and I wouldn't be the one to I wouldn't want Don Kelly to be the one going up to him, Hey, Paul, we're gonna skip your start, and he's like, what, I'm gonna smash you into the ground because he's a monster. But there's a perfect time to say it, there's a perfect time to ask it. It's kind of a comedy question. Extension Paul Skins chances are one to.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: I said this on local radio the other day. I give it a one percent chance right now. Now that figure can change. But if your Paul schemes, what incentive do you have to sign an extension here?

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Speaker 2: One?

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Speaker 1: I mean the pirates, I will say for the recent talents that they have been able to successfully develop, you go past this current regime. They extended McCutchen, they extended Starling Marte. They thought highly of Gregory Polanco and extended him. Obviously, they didn't extend Garrett Cole, but they you know, and Hayes, Reynolds and Keller two extensions as well. Obviously those three didn't necessarily play out as well as the ones like Martine McCutchen did, but they have shown interest in the last decade or so in extending their you know, internal talent that they develop. But Skeens is a just a different animal. I mean, he has a higher upside than all of those names I just listed and b I mean again, why would any player right now want to sign an extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you're Paul Skeens, you're looking around and saying, you know, this is a guy who wants to win. That's his main objective every time you talk to him. It's never about his individual accolades or his individual success, his numbers. It's about what the team can do to be better. How can they win? This guy wants to compete. In two seasons here, they haven't done a ton to add around him, and so I think he would be open to it maybe later on. If twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven go well, and they win a division title and they make some noise in the playoffs, I think then you have a little bit of a better shot. But until they start winning and having some serious traction here, I don't think Paul Schemes would be interested in that.

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Speaker 3: And the problem when you're the Pirates is that if you don't figure something like this out, you are going to continue to fall behind if you wait on value with players. Not yet, I get it. We're not going to go into that whole conversation again. He's not on the trade block right now. But you can't wait until a year before free agency and be like, I don't know, otherwise we let him walk. You just can't do that when you're in that spot and your owner doesn't believe in spending on free agency. So on that topic, we finally got a little peep from the commissioner about the Pirates. I'm sure you caught it. Pat McAfee was over in Atlanta and he had the commission on the show, and he said, Pittsburgh's a great sports on This is Pat, and there's a lot of really passionate Pirates fans. I think all of us kind of feel like we're with Pirates Nation right now. Anyway. He said, they just want to look at the system, think they have a fair chance to win Manfred said we need to deal with that issue. I think some people took it as we need to deal with Bob Nutting never believing in free agency and treating his team like crap. But I actually think he just meant that he wants a salary cap. What did you take out of it?

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Speaker 2: I lean more towards the ladder.

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Speaker 1: I think that Manford, I don't know if it's necessarily a salary cap. I think that's the big narrative that exists right now, just from everything that came out Tuesday in Atlanta. But yeah, I think Manford wants to in. Any commissioner of any sporting league should want this. They want to have a league where all teams inside the league have a legitimate shot of competing for a championship.

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Speaker 2: And right now it's hard to make that argument.

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Speaker 1: You can look around this sport and see a handful of franchise is that just don't seem to have that ability or willingness to go all in like you see the Dodgers or the Mets or the Yankees doing consistently, and even bigger markets are moving players away with high salaries.

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Speaker 2: Right now.

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Speaker 1: It's an interesting time in the sport and when you look at a place like Pittsburgh, where, yeah, there hasn't been a lot of success here. They've had four winning seasons since nineteen ninety two. They haven't won a playoff series since winning the World Series in nineteen seventy nine. I mean, these fans are starved for winning baseball and there's a lot of frustration that can be felt well outside of the city of Pittsburgh when it pertains to the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I think the commissioner recognizes that and he views that as just one part of a big problem right now baseball has with small to mid market teams not really having a chance to financially feel a competitive roster and maintain that roster for an extended period of time.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, salary floor is obviously the answer. It's just that they'll never go for that because the people that vote for that are people like Bob Nutting. So, on the topic of Bob, do you think he's okay with in intra division trade? I know you mentioned Mitch Keller and the Cubs and maybe the Mets. Do you think that the Pirates are totally fine with that? Because we do have to remember, ultimately, one person makes the final decision on a trade, and last year it definitely came up with the White Sox right trying to maybe amp the price up in division. That's their right. Do you think any of that would be the case if the Cubs call about Mitch Keller?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the Pirates are in a position right now where they have to take the best offer available, and if that comes from a team that they're going to play more than anyone else because they're in their division, then that's just the harsh reality of the situation they put themselves in. I don't think it's completely off the table. As far as Keller to the Cubs. I was recently told that he's not their top priority right now, or at least that's what it's led to believe from my sources. They're still interested, but I think they have other guys ahead now. They were one of the first teams to reach out, so there is smoke there. But if it came down to it and they offered the best price for Mitch, I think that that deal does get done.

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Speaker 5: What about what about my boy Adam Fraser, He's just going through the cycle of teams that's that he's played on. Can you kind of explain how far out this trade, Like, was this something that you know was in the works earlier? It just kind of pop up. I know people are gonna be like, huh, who cares Adam Fraser trade? But to me, it's a big deal because he's a great contributor to a team, and I think it's a big pickup for the Royals, who are kind of on the fringe.

00:12:35
Speaker 2: I totally agree.

00:12:37
Speaker 1: I think Adam Fraser is a perfect bench piece for a team that's looking to make a postseason push. He can play a whole bunch of different positions. He has experienced patting in all areas of the lineup, and you know he can get hot and give you two really good weeks of production at the plate.

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Speaker 2: We've seen that at times this season.

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Speaker 1: I know when the Pirates acquired him, they didn't expect him to be an everyday player, but Nick and Zalez breaks his ankle hitting a home run on opening Day, the most Pirates injury ever, and he takes over as the everyday second basement for a couple of months and was one of the more productive bats in the lineup.

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Speaker 2: So I think the trade was expected.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's what you do when you have a veteran on an expiring contract in this month and you're in last place, you move those guys. I don't think they were anticipating getting anything amazing for him, And yeah, they didn't get a top one hundred prospect in exchange, but they were able to get a guy that I think will probably see a lot of playing time in these final two months of the regular season in the Royals. Like we just mentioned, got a veteran guy who's played some playoff baseball, who knows how to play a lot of positions and is a nice addition to a clubhouse.

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Speaker 3: No last one for you. I want to make sure we get to Dennis Santana and David Bednark. Do you think both of them definitely will go because they both have what one more year of team control after this?

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Speaker 2: I don't know of both.

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Speaker 1: I think that that's like the biggest question I entered the month of June with just talking with people around the team and just you know, league sources.

00:14:05
Speaker 2: How do you handle that?

00:14:06
Speaker 1: Because the Pirates bullpen has been very inconsistent throughout this regime, and right now it's the best it's ever been, and largely because you have those two right handed weapons for high leverage spots, and do you want to.

00:14:20
Speaker 2: Give both of them away?

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Speaker 1: One of them is a Pittsburgh guy, and how many players in Major League Baseball right now are chomping at the bit to stay in Pittsburgh. They want to be Pittsburgh Pirates. I think there are a lot of guys who would like to come here for the right price. But David Bednar is a proud Pittsburgh pirate. So moving someone like that with local ties, a guy that they thought about moving earlier in his career and ownership stepped in and said absolutely not. So that's one side of the coin, and then the other side of the coin. I mean Santana, I think is an incredibly underrated asset. He's been one of the best right handers in the game if you look at his numbers from the moment he arrived at Pittsburgh up to now, he's been incredibly effective.

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Speaker 2: Use him in so many different spots.

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Speaker 1: I think that of those two, Santana's more likely to be moved, but I wouldn't be shocked.

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Speaker 4: At both women.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well, we'll keep an eye on it. That's maybe the most popular team or at least top three right now heading into the deadline. If all of these names are going to be up for grabs, I mean the Diamondback's getting a lot of up fireates have a lot to sell here. Noah, thanks for the time, great work, Great to talk to you.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, guys, thanks for having me on