Election Day Arrives; Boeing Strike Ends

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:13.840 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:15.040 following today. 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:18.840 Karen, Election Day is here. More than eighty one million 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.440 votes have already been cast in one of the closest 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:25.720 and most divisive presidential campaigns this country has ever seen. Now, 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.360 for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, all that's left to 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.080 do is to watch and wait as millions more Americans 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.960 turn to their polling places and vote in person. The 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.120 Vice President spent the last day of her campaign in Pennsylvania. 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.800 Her final rally was at the Philadelphia Steps made famous 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:41.800 in the movie Rocky. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:47.479 America is ready for a fresh start, ready for a 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:52.320 new way forward where we see our fellow American. 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:56.400 Not as an enemy, but as a neighbor. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.040 Kamala Harris was joined by a parade of celebrities, including 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.160 Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey. 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:08.000 If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.880 that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:13.160 a ballot again. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.279 Earlier, pop star Katie Perry headlined a rally for Kamala 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.000 Harris in Pittsburgh. 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:22.800 I Know she will protect my daughter's future, and your 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:30.400 children's future, and our family's future. So Pittsburgh, let's ring 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.560 Kamala Harris the next president of the United States. 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.760 Kamala Harris also held events in Allentown and Scranton before 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.679 arriving in Pennsylvania's two largest cities. She will watch the 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.160 results roll in tonight at her alma mater, Howard University 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:45.240 in Washington, d c. 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.400 Well Nathan Donald Trump also had his site set on Pennsylvania. 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:52.200 In the campaign's final day, the former president held his 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.400 own rally in Pittsburgh. And he's already accusing Democrats of 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:56.960 trying to rig the election. 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:01.200 This is that big, powerful, vicious party of them, vicious machine. 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:03.640 I mean, they can take all these bad ideas and 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:04.480 win elections. 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:06.120 It's like, there's only way you could do that. 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:06.600 One way. 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.840 There's only one way. Donald Trump also had rallies in Reading, 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.360 Pennsylvania and Raleigh, North Carolina, where he told supporters the 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.520 election is theirs to lose. He closed out his campaign 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:18.880 in the same place he ended his runs in twenty 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.919 sixteen and twenty twenty, Battle Creek, Michigan. 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.400 We have a silent majority, but we're just sort of 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:26.080 speaking up. 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:30.160 This has showed that the level of enthusiasm is five 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.079 times greater than their level. 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.200 And on this election day, Donald Trump will head back 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.560 to his home state of Florida to watch the results 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.279 roll in from the Palm Beach Convention Center. 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:43.359 And Karen Trump has picked up one more endorsement from 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:48.399 popular podcast hosts Joe Rogan. Bloomberg's Derek Wallbank has more 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:50.680 on the impact of celebrity nods. 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:52.840 I think a lot of these are baked in right 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.560 If you listen to Joe Rogan's podcast where he's had 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:58.240 on Trump and Elon Musk and all sorts of other 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.600 people like that, you probably we're voting for Donald Trump anyway. 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:03.880 I'm not sure that there's somebody who sits there right 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.080 now who says, oh my goodness, Joe Rogan said something, 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.000 I'm going to go vote the way that he does. 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:12.440 You know, ditto Taylor Swift, but you know, for Kamala Harris. 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.920 But you can see some of these move the needles, 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:18.400 and sometimes they really do. Now, Harris has made a 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:22.799 very big show of having a lot of former Republicans 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:25.160 who are with her. Liz cheneyus one of those. And 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:28.959 Trump has done the exact same thing in reverse Chelsea Gabbert, 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:31.800 the former Hawaii congresswoman who at one point ran for 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:35.120 president as a Democrat, as well as RFK Junior. 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.680 To that point, Bloomberg's Eric Wallbank notes Joe Rogan endorsed 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.680 Bernie Sanders in twenty twenty. 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.520 Well Nathan. The battle for control of the US Congress 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:47.440 has top ten billion dollars as the two parties buy 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:51.520 for power and influence over taxes, spending, the president's agenda, 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.800 and more. Bloomberg's Amy Morris brings us a preview of 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:56.680 this Senate races from Washington. 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:00.280 Republicans are currently favored to gain the Senate majority based 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.960 on a favorable map. Key races to watch include Montana, 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.680 where three term incumbent John Tester has trailed Republican newcomer 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:11.440 Tim Sheehey, Ohio, where Shared Brown is defending his seat 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:15.360 against car dealer Bernie Moreno, and the wild Cards. Democrats 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.719 need upset wins in Texas, Florida, or Nebraska, where the 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:21.280 race is neck and neck. Democrats would also need to 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:26.000 keep their seats in the presidential blue wall battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:30.320 and Michigan, where the races have tightened also in Arizona 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:33.839 and Nevada. In Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:35.640 All right, Amy, thanks, let's turn to Wall Street. Now 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:38.599 see how markets are faring. Is millions of Americans get 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:42.240 ready to cast their ballots. Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:43.120 from New York. 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.800 John and Nathan Trader's taking a pretty cautious approach as 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:49.080 the polls are said to open. Mike Wilson of Morgan 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:53.120 Stanley says a number of different scenarios could play out. 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:57.360 Minds have sold off probably too much, and the renewables 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:00.320 and things like consumer goods companies will be here by 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.000 Tariffs have really been hammered. So if Harris wins, you 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.400 could see really a pretty big rebound in some markets, 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:07.600 you know. So there's a lot of permutations here. 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:10.760 Coin toss election. He is leading some hedge funds to 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:13.520 favorite currency options that will gain from a weaker dollar 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:18.240 should Harris win the presidency. Chris weston Pepperstone Group says 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.200 the US dollars probably the cleanest expression of the election. 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:23.520 Then you have an index of the dollar that is 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.280 down a tenth of a percent this morning. It fell 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:28.280 by the most in more than a month yesterday, as 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.919 investors walk back bets on a Trump win meantime, shares 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:34.280 of Trump media right now there are up over five 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.520 percent pre market. And then there are the prediction markets. 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:40.200 They put the odds at one in three that the 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.840 election can't be called until after Wednesday in New York. 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:45.400 I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:47.839 All right, John, thank you well. Join us for complete 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.440 cover to the election results tonight. It kicks off at 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:53.240 five pm Eastern with a special two hour edition of 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.680 Balance of Power, followed by coast to coast Team Bloomberg 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.640 coverage at seven pm. Get live election results in analysis 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:04.520 with context on Bloomberg Radio, Television and the Bloomberg Podcast 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:05.400 YouTube channel. 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.400 Well, Karen, there's been one more important vote for a 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:14.040 new labor contract at Boeing. It's approved, the strike is over, 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.320 and shares are up more than two percent this morning. 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.560 Let's get the latest on the piece at Boeing with 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:21.839 Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo. 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.760 Lisa, good morning, Nathan. After fifty three days hourly workers, well, 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.440 they can start returning to factories in Washington, Oregon, and 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:31.520 California as soon as tomorrow. District seven to fifty one. 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.080 President John Holden called it a win for the union. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.520 They secured a victory. They voted by fifty nine percent 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:40.279 to accept the agreement, and they get to move forward. 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.640 The strike will end, and now it's our job to 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.000 get back to work and start building the airplanes, increase 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.279 the rates, and bring this company back to financial success. 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.800 Now, So mesamt's say, the walkout cost bowing about one 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:55.120 hundred million dollars a day in lost revenue. The new 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:58.320 labor contract that includes a thirty eight percent wage increase 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:03.040 over four years and enhanced retirement contributions. New CEO Kelly Ortborg, 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:06.760 he will praise the President Joe Biden congratulated both sides 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:07.520 for coming together. 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:08.040 Now. 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:11.760 Jeffrey's analyst estimates Boeing faces about one point one billion 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:15.440 dollars in higher salary costs over four years under the deal. 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:18.000 Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio, all. 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.200 Right, Lisa, thank you. Another stock on the move this 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:24.400 morning is Pallenteer, and those shares they're up almost thirteen percent. 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.960 The company reported quarterly revenue above estimates and raised its 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:31.840 forecast for operating income in the current period. Pallunteer sites 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.440 high demand in the US for its artificial intelligence software. 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:40.360 Time now for look at some of the other stories 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.360 making news in New York and around the world, and 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:44.640 for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr or Michael 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:45.360 good morning. 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.200 Good morning, Karen. Officials have been preparing for months to 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:52.000 keep pole workers safe on this election day. This volunteer 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:53.960 is in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.840 Blessedly my sixteenth election that I've worked at poles on 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:58.200 real concern about safety. 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:00.560 I never was afraid before to work the pole. This year, 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:01.880 I'm a little bit nervous. 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.120 In Durham County, North Carolina, they have new safeguards in 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:10.280 place the elections directors as they implemented de escalation alert 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:14.680 badges for all of the chief judges and site coordinators 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.800 to wear. If they pressed the button, it immediately connects 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:21.280 to nine to one one. Russia is reportedly accused of 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:25.679 planting devices designed to catch fire on cargo planes bound 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:29.000 for the US and Canada. According to The Wall Street Journal, 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:34.000 Western officials say the incendiary devices were shipped via DHL 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:39.280 as part of Russia's covert sabotage campaign against Washington and 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:43.280 its allies. Two of the devices reportedly ignited at DHL 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:46.920 Logistics subs in July, one in Germany and another in 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:51.880 the UK. Former Pentagon senior official Steve Ganyard says, if successful, 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:55.640 Russia could have grounded all flights between Europe and North America. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.760 This is an extraordinarily dangerous move by Russian military and 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:00.520 time intelligence. 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:04.280 To do something like this could potentially bring down an airliner. 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:09.440 Former Pentagon senior official Steve Ganyard spoke to ABC. South 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.400 Korea says North Korea has launched more missiles, this time 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:16.280 short range missiles toward its eastern Sea. Last week, they 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:20.880 tested what they claimed was an ultimate ICBM capable of 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:25.079 reaching the US mainland with energy and sports drinks and 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:28.640 coffee drinks popular among teens. New study finds the rate 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:33.400 of kids visiting hospital emergency rooms for caffeine overdoses has 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.559 about doubled since twenty seventeen. Stanford Children's health doctor A. 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:40.720 Luke Pattel says children are not heating warnings about too 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:42.160 much caffeine. 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.240 Went in doubt, take the can, turn it around and 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.240 look to see how many milligrams of caffeine are in 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.240 that beverage, or go online and look it up before 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:52.559 giving your child or teen, any beverage, you should absolutely 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:53.560 know what's in. 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:57.640 It, Doctor Pittel told ABC. The American Academy of Pediatrics 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:01.079 recommends teens consume no more than and one hundred milligrams 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:04.120 of caffeine daily. That's about a cup of coffee a day. 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.760 Global News twenty four hours a day, and whenever you 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.480 wanted with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael barrn. This 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:10.600 is Bloomberg Karen. 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:17.199 All right, Milchael barr thank you time now for the 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.880 Bloomberg Sports up date, brought to you by Trient State Outy. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.360 Here's John Stanshower. John, Good morning, Give morning Karen. 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.960 There's never been a Super Bowl three p Kansas City 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.320 Chiefs certainly look capable of being the first to do 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:30.880 and Monday football in casey Patrick Mahomes three touchdown passes, 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:35.320 two went their recent acquisition DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelcey fourteen catches, 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.040 one hundred yards. Tampa Bay tied the game, scoring with 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.960 twenty seven seconds left and then kicked off and overtime. 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.800 Never got the balls. The Chiefs went down the field. 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:52.720 Here is hunt for the touchsdown. Kansas City remains Unbeatenay no, 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:55.760 it'll win it over time. 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.319 The ESPN Chiefs beat the Bucks thirty to twenty four. 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:00.600 They signed Kareem Hunt during this and he had over 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:03.040 one hundred yards on the ground and that game winning TD. 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.160 So the Chiefs are eight and o. The Saints were 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.280 once two and over. They've lost their last seven. They 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:11.079 fired coach Dennis Allen. Assistant Darren Rizzy takes over Cowboys 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:12.719 just three and five, yet to win at home, and 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.600 now they'll play the next several games without Dak Prescott 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.320 hamstring injury. Cooper Rushed becomes the starting QWB in Dallas. 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.480 No NBA tonight busy Monday slight, including the next end 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:24.679 of a three game road trip, losing in Houston one 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:27.280 on nine ninety seven. Jalen Brunson led the next with 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:28.760 twenty nine. The Nets pulled out on one of the 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:31.600 sixty one oh four home went over Memphis Celtics now 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.400 seven and one, they won by thirty. In Atlanta, Golden 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.120 State beat the Wizards. Cleveland top Milwaukee by two. The 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:37.959 Cans are eight to o. 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.760 Devil's three nothing winning Edmonton opening night. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.080 In college basketball, Saint John's blew out four h Tom 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.079 ninety two to sixty, much closer for Seaton Hall fifty 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.520 seven to fifty three over Saint Peter's. Two days after 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.120 Garrett Cole opted out of his Yankee contract, He's now 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:53.080 back in with a new deal expected. 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.800 John Stanshanwerre Bloomberg Sports carry Nasty. 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.920 Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Syrias XM, 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.000 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:09.120 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:09.880 Nathan Hager. 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:13.559 One of the most divisive and most unpredictable presidential campaigns 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.320 in American history has finally reached the finish line for 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:18.120 Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.520 We're going to have the greatest victory in the history 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:24.160 of our country. 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.640 It is time for a new. 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:31.880 Generation of leadership in America. A former president and vice 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.280 president closed out their campaigns last night in Battle Creek, 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:40.600 Michigan and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, respectively. This morning, we are joined 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:44.360 by Terry Haynes, the founder of Pangaea Policy and Terry, 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:48.480 we've gotten the first official results of election twenty twenty four. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:54.040 By tradition, Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, and mirroring the polls. 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.720 It's three votes apiece for Harris and Trump. Is that 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.000 a signal of what's to come? 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.360 After all? The closed tonight? Good morning? 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.240 Well, it's good morning, Nathan as Nick Dixville. Notch goes, 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:09.360 so goes the nation? Right, Yeah, I think, you know, 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:10.920 I do think it's going to be closed. I think 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:15.000 what we end up with, though, is, you know, for markets, 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:21.360 in terms of importance, seventy percent split politically split Washington 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.320 and about sixty percent likely Harris wins. The reason I 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.000 put the split Washington first is because markets want to 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.080 understand policy results and want to be able to anticipate them. 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:34.880 And what you get out of what you get out 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.600 of a politically split Washington in this case, a barely 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:41.840 democratic House and a barely democratic Senate is really the 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:46.240 remixed policy status quo from the last few years that's 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.839 probably negative for fiscal negative for tax among other things. 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:56.600 Want to be clear, you're calling for a barely democratic Senate. 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:00.719 Barely democratic House, I'm sorry, in a tiny majority Republican 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:04.960 Senate in both of these cases. You know what this 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.840 really comes down to is gravity. You've got a situation 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:12.480 where there's Democrats are defending eight eight Senate seats that 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.679 are competitive. Can they get them all? Yes? Will they 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.680 get them all? That's unlikely. And in the House, where 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.520 you've got one sixth of the seats that are competitive 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.960 and twenty two pure toss ups, it's you know, I 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.520 think it's likelier than not that the majority changes hands, 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.800 but not that it's a huge difference or some sort 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:33.560 of blowout. 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:36.720 You've been calling sixty percent Harris for quite some time. 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:38.840 The final polls seem to show a little bit of 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:44.000 a narrowing, perhaps in Harris's favor. What's the possibility that 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:45.880 the odds could tip Trump's way? 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.640 Well, there, you know, I have Trump at forty percent, 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.560 and I don't discount Trump's chances at all. What you've 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:57.160 got is a situation with in polling. Think about this 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.240 two ways. One is that the poles are taught, but 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.040 the polls all have margins of era of four percent. 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:08.040 So if there's margins of error at play in some ways, somehow, 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:12.360 some way, either in Harris's direction or Trump's direction, you know, 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.680 that produces a very different sort of result. Secondly, let's 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.880 remember that the highest turnout we've ever had was in 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.640 twenty twenty and that was a sixty six percent, which 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.640 introduces its own skew, since what you're looking at in 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:29.000 a poll is the assumption and likely voters that nearly 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:30.960 all of them show up, but if two thirds of 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:35.080 them show up, that introduces another skew. So, you know, 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.520 my view of the race has simply been that, you know, 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:45.120 Harris's enthusiasm, her message, discipline, her ability to turn out 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.640 the vote probably enables her to eke out a win 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:49.240 over Trump. 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.840 Just thirty seconds left, we've already had more than eighty 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.840 one million Americans turn out to vote in early voting. 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:56.560 What does that tell you about how the result could 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:57.000 come down? 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:02.560 Generally speaking, what we've had is from two thousand to today, 0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:09.560 we've had about fifteen percent increase in voting turnout overall, 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:14.440 and that that has generally benefited Democrats, you know, going 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:18.600 back to elections, you know that's not a guarantee by 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.880 any means, but generally speaking, Democrats have done very well 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:23.240 when turnout is up. 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.760 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.880 making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.480 Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.960 Eastern each morning on Apple Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.040 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.680 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.680 in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.080 Bloomberg ninety two to nine in Boston, and nationwide on 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:50.600 serious XM Channel one twenty one. 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.600 Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.440 now with Apple CarPlay and Android Atto interfaces. 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.600 And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.440 the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.640 or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.840 platform to stay informed all day long. 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:09.840 I'm Karen Moscow. 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:10.600 And I'm Nathan Hager. 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:12.840 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.639 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Debreak