The Show: NFL Draft Bold Predictions, Slot Wide Receivers, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado.

00:00:18
Speaker 2: Here's this week's.

00:00:18
Speaker 3: Episode, Welcome In.

00:00:34
Speaker 4: Welcome In. It's a Late Round Fantasy Football show sponsored by DraftKings. I'm David Kitchen alongside JJ. You're just gonna call him JJ for today. JJ. How's it going?

00:00:46
Speaker 2: Like?

00:00:46
Speaker 4: How? Like?

00:00:46
Speaker 2: How are you?

00:00:47
Speaker 4: With the draft a day away?

00:00:50
Speaker 2: You just best men of the year. I'm pumped.

00:00:53
Speaker 1: We were singing some Doug Doug the show, Doug the cartoon from.

00:00:58
Speaker 2: When we were young.

00:00:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're aging before we you know, we're doing a.

00:01:01
Speaker 2: Little before the show started. Yeah.

00:01:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great time. It's a it's a great time to be alive. It's a great time to you are you're.

00:01:14
Speaker 4: Feeling it, you know you you know you talk about like pregnant ladies with a glow. You've got that. Uh like Cardio.

00:01:20
Speaker 2: Done today, Cardio is done. I made a bean salad that I.

00:01:23
Speaker 1: Just destroyed before we got on air, we got the draft coming up.

00:01:27
Speaker 2: I mean, life could not be better.

00:01:28
Speaker 4: Than plans for a draft cast role tomorrow.

00:01:32
Speaker 1: Actually making a cast role tonight. I'm making an Asian cast role. Got some Cocoamino's ready to make some uh some rice noodles. You know obviously gluten free. They are gluten free.

00:01:44
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:01:44
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:01:44
Speaker 2: For those of you who don't know, I make cast rules. It's my it's my thing.

00:01:48
Speaker 4: It's your thing. It's I mean what you said, it's your thing. I'm saying it's your thing, so it's your thing.

00:01:54
Speaker 1: But by the way, by the way, I have to say it's about the cast roles. But my Instagram account it's private. I mean, if you really want to follow me, I have to bet you a little bit. But I post cast roles on there. I've had at least probably seven or eight people message me about different cast role recipes. So I am at least making an impact on people's lives posting the cast roles on Instagram.

00:02:21
Speaker 4: We should have a like a cast role recipe section in the late Round discord that we.

00:02:28
Speaker 2: Have, Yeah, a castrole channel, a.

00:02:32
Speaker 4: Cast row channel, or just or just a food Picks channel, because you can post your cast rolls. I can post my smoked meats. I grilled.

00:02:40
Speaker 1: Hey, I grilled too, Okay, I got I got my chicken going every week, buddy.

00:02:44
Speaker 4: But I know your neighborhood is the grill mecca of North Carolina. Some people are saying, but as far as the late round discord goes, I do just want to say, starting Draft night, going through the week, and it's gonna get crazy. You know, we're all we're all going to be in the uh it would will it be in the live game banter channel or what channel?

00:03:09
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, live game mentor I'll be in there, you know, excuse me all those uh yeah, before starting the show.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: I'll be in there while I'm writing blurbs and stuff. But I'll be able to give some zapp score updates and stuff. I think Jordan Tyson is going to probably break people's brains because, for the record, if you guys are reading the Prospect Guide, Jordan Tyson's Zapp score was a ninety two, which was was a decent bit Like I wouldn't say it was like a definite tier above the other two, but it was.

00:03:40
Speaker 2: It was.

00:03:40
Speaker 1: You could have argued that he would be in his own tier based on the ZAP model. I put them in the same tier just because of the injury stuff. Blah blah blah, Like there was a chance that his draft capital would fall if he.

00:03:50
Speaker 2: Goes fifth overall.

00:03:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm just putting in that five for the draft capital for Jordan Tyson.

00:03:56
Speaker 2: He is, He's gonna look very good in the ZAP model. We'll say that.

00:04:01
Speaker 4: Yeah. I was on the WOLD cast yesterday and I mentioned that I think one of the reasons why this Tyson steam will talk about this in a second, but is because somehow, some way, one of these prospect guides landed in a GM's lap, and it's like, yeah.

00:04:19
Speaker 2: The dream. I don't even want to get paid by an NFL front office.

00:04:22
Speaker 1: I want to influence a front office by not doing any extra work.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: Okay, I don't want to work for a team.

00:04:27
Speaker 1: That would be horrible, right, Yeah, but I would love to, you know, have the ear of a GM who's willing to hear.

00:04:33
Speaker 4: Okay, Prospect Guide is available again. You've got like three days to purchase the pre draft version and then also get the post draft version. It's the same price. But understand if you just want to wait until after the draft and purchase it. You know it's got rankings for your rookie drafts and such, but I would just go ahead and purchase it now. Just go ahead, go to late round and purchase it now. And also need to do this now. You cannot wait get in a draft. King's Early Best Ball Draft j J. You have been like I feel like I've been doing a ton of Best Ball drafts too, because it's starting to fill up, and I'm like, oh, I got to get I've got to get my drafts in before, you know, before the draft. This is the early Best Ball draft, so it'll close like during the draft. And so these these players you don't know where they're going. And you entered a bunch of slow drafts and then they sped up the timer. So you've been in uh, you know, go draft season.

00:05:38
Speaker 2: Well, last last night, yesterday was today. They're all done. I mean I missed a couple picks, but I actually think that because I was on top of it, I might have been at somewhat of an advantage. Yeah, to other people, The problem.

00:05:49
Speaker 1: Though, is that like you know, when when when you get down to those ten minute clocks, you might see it, you know, with seconds left and you're just kind of like, oh, I got it. So I wasn't as optimal as I could have been, and it was there were a lot of picks coming in, so I was just kind of making picks based on so I was reaching a little bit for like a nineteenth rounder and a seventeenth round stuff like that. But I just wanted reasonable roster construction. That was the that was the goal. In the end, I think I at least got that with a lot of the rosters.

00:06:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, you also did some live streams in the past two days, so again, if you're not already subscribed to the YouTube channel.

00:06:24
Speaker 2: Do that.

00:06:25
Speaker 4: I would just say that it's fun to get in there and just see where all the picks are being made and just have your mind blown just for a minute and go ahead. And especially if you purchase the Draft Guide or the Prospect Guide rather, you can see the rookies and see where they're being drafted, and there are some there's some decent discrepancies there. And we have rankings over there on our Late Round Patreon, so you can go to late round dot com and get DraftKings rankings that you can just drop right in there. So I think that covers it. JJ, Let's get on to it because we have I feel like a ton of stuff to cover today's fantasy news. Okay, so we're going to talk about some things that are not related to the draft, starting with Alec Pearce's surgery. This kind of caught you off guard on the live stream yesterday when I announced it, But surgery three months should be ready for the start of the season.

00:07:28
Speaker 2: Look, I've said it before, I'll say it again.

00:07:30
Speaker 1: I'm really happy for Alec Pearce getting his bag this offseason.

00:07:34
Speaker 2: I just question, I think it's rational.

00:07:38
Speaker 1: I question what the volume upside is for Alec Pierce because even when you look at his profile in college when he was at Cincinnati, he was never a high volume getterer. I think he's maxed out at like a twenty one percent target shair. I mean I said it on the show back on the free agency episode that you guys can can go back in reference, But I worry about what that volume upside really looks like. Now, he's gotten better every year of his NFL career in my opinion, or at least we saw the jump last year, so like he's he's gotten better as a as a player.

00:08:11
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean this, this to me like a healthy Alec Pierce.

00:08:14
Speaker 1: I was already a little bit questionable with from a fantasy perspective this year because number one, I don't know if he's a big target getter. Number Two, what's going on with that quarterback? You know, like Daniel Jones tore his achilles. It was a really bad injury. And that's an injury that we've seen. You know, Aaron Rodgers not look totally normal in one hundred percent the first year he's back. Kirk Cousins not look totally great one hundred percent the first year he's back. I don't think that we should just expect Daniel Jones to just be fine, right, And yes, that would be helpful for Alec Pierce if he was.

00:08:45
Speaker 2: But that's just another layer to this into the Alec Pierces story.

00:08:49
Speaker 1: So you know, I can understand him more and best ball, I guess because he's a big play player. I think he works. He's one of those players. It's like the way I kind of view Carnel Tait in a way, where these guys who can in vertically and do a lot in contested catch situations, which Carnal Tate has one of the best contested catch profiles that you can possibly find.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: Those guys, to me, can often be.

00:09:11
Speaker 1: More attractive for real football and what a real NFL team wants to do as opposed to fantasy football.

00:09:17
Speaker 2: And I say that because those.

00:09:19
Speaker 1: Guys don't always come with a lot of volume, and we're chasing volume in fantasy like we you know, especially in these PPR formats, Like a guy like Amnas Saint Brown is a cheat code, you know, because he just gets peppered with these looks. So that that's my case kind of against Alec Pearce. I'm not, like, you know, will he be an a void in the draft guide this year. There's a possibility, but I don't want people to walk aways thinking that, like you know, all my research has done.

00:09:42
Speaker 2: This is how I feel in April. I gotta feel this way in July.

00:09:45
Speaker 1: But right now I haven't been very heavy on Alec Pearson, thinking very optimistically about him. And then you know this, this injury at least adds a little.

00:09:52
Speaker 2: Bit of something to that risk profile.

00:09:54
Speaker 4: Yeah, right now on DK he is his ADP is at UH sixty seven, so yeah, he's at sixty seven around like Marvin Harrison junior, Michael Wilson, Mackay Lemon, who will talk about in a second, So an interesting spot for his ADP and what you're gonna do with him, And again that could go down with this surgery news and with the with the NFL Draft, you know, things will be fluid with with with eighty.

00:10:25
Speaker 1: That's the other thing too, is I think the Colts are squarely and firmly in position to get another wide receiver in this draft.

00:10:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, day two kind of player.

00:10:33
Speaker 1: Like I'm not saying they're gonna, you know, get one in round one or anything or trade up or anything like that, but you know, like I like Josh Downs. I think that he can play on the outside, but we've seen them not really do that. They don't really have another perimeter player to to like or as as Matt Harmon would call it, a sacrificial X, you know, someone that they can just throw out there and you know, open things up for the offense and be good.

00:10:52
Speaker 2: Enough to do something like that. And there's a lot of those kinds of players.

00:10:55
Speaker 1: I think on Day two that the teams are going to go after that I'm not like overly high on, but that might also move down Alec Pierce's cost post draft, and you know, whether it's warranted or not. In my opinion, it probably won't be warranted. But uh, you know that's another reason why is adp might fall.

00:11:11
Speaker 4: Okay, on the Brandon list. It's like Brandon Gadola, number one, number two, Brandon Aubrey.

00:11:18
Speaker 2: Maybe we're talking kickers on this show.

00:11:21
Speaker 4: Okay, and this is my caveat here. Usually I would not do it, but this guy is the highest paid kicker now in in NFL history. Came from you know, the the AFL or XFL or whatever. But good for him, get in the bag. I just want to.

00:11:41
Speaker 2: Get some love to kickers before we get onto it.

00:11:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, good for good for Brandon Aubrey. Still not my one oh one Brandon, My one on one Brandon works for late.

00:11:51
Speaker 2: Round fantasy football. Okay, this is what I said.

00:11:53
Speaker 4: Yeah, but how nice is it for the Cowboys where they're on the fifty and they're like, let's kick it.

00:12:00
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean he's great, He's phenomenal.

00:12:03
Speaker 4: So he is a weapon, an option all right, speaking of a weapon and someone who advanced teams in their Best Ball contest last year or just like teams in their playoffs in general. Kyle Pitts Adam Schefter reporting that he is a trade target. This is not the first time we've heard this. However, they franchise tagged him or a franchise tenant, whatever it was, and now they're open to trades. They're in Atlanta.

00:12:29
Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting because they lack pass catching depth on that team. You know, they went and they got Johan Dotson and Alamine Zakiyas this offseason, which probably okay, like three four types on a team, you know, and like I said, hopefully more fours, you know, in a wide receiver room. So obviously Drake London is a stud, but outside of him, there's really not that much that they have going for them. So if they were to move Pitts, I would assume they're trying to do something in the draft to make up for that, and you know that that would really shift things around. I think in the way that we're talking about, you know, what their needs are, you know, like an Eli Stowers would be interesting. That's really like the most one to one replacement type player, I would say to a.

00:13:14
Speaker 2: Guy like Pitts. But yeah, I saw the Chiefs were linked to him a little bit. The Chiefs are being linked.

00:13:19
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are being linked to a lot of tight ends for obvious reasons, right, but I still think they need like, like, can they just not be weird with the way they pick wide receivers. I just want them to not pick a weird wide receiver.

00:13:32
Speaker 2: That's it. Just Just pick a normal, a normal capable wide out who can play all over the field.

00:13:39
Speaker 1: Don't get an undersized guy, don't fall in love with the gadgety types.

00:13:43
Speaker 4: Just get it.

00:13:43
Speaker 2: Just get a normal dude. Even Rashi Rice was not a normal player, Like he was not and he's being used completely differently than he was in college. Yeah, like he's a it's a, it's a it's a. Just Just get Jordan Tyson, is what I'm saying. It would be so great if they just went and got Jordan Tyson. I don't think. I don't think Tyson's gonna be there though at this point.

00:14:02
Speaker 4: Great. Now in the chat again, if you're listening, just bookmark the event for Wednesday's noon Eastern join us on YouTube hop in the chat. In the chat, they're talking about the Kickers. That's my fault. I apologize about when when when it's too high to draft a kicker. But also I want to pull up this comment right here. The pittspodd is all being pushed by Atlanta in hopes that can get someone interested, and that leads us to some of the things we'll talk about as far as like the whole smoke and mirrors of draft season, and like even as a Titans fan, I can't keep up with all the reports. One of my favorite things on social media is the people that have been taking all these draft analysts and draft experts from week to week at what they're hearing every and like every update is different about what they're hearing.

00:15:00
Speaker 2: There are I don't study the draft the way that some people do.

00:15:04
Speaker 1: You know, our friends that establish the run go hard with the NFL draft right and looking at props and analyzing which you know, which reporter knows what they're talking about which ones don't. There is so much smoke all the time, right and we're seeing that right now, and I see it in chat right now where Brennan is saying that the Tyson steam is fake.

00:15:23
Speaker 4: Right.

00:15:24
Speaker 1: All I can do is go with what my general evaluation is saying about these players and what I feel about these players, and I do, Like I have tested NFL mock draft database data going back to when it goes back to I think twenty sixteen. It's not bad, guys, at least from a predictability standpoint of like how well you know if you were to use that as a draft capital input in the ZAP model.

00:15:46
Speaker 2: Yes, the ZAP model loses a little bit, but.

00:15:48
Speaker 1: It's still not that bad, you know, as sort of like a proxy of how the NFL might be feeling about these players.

00:15:55
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

00:15:56
Speaker 1: I definitely would not look at one report and say this is definitively the thing that's going to happen. Some of them are so oddly specific to like Tony Pauline is going out there saying that the Jags are going to trade up into round two to get Jdarian Price if he's still there, right, I mean, the chance Agenarian Price goes in round one, there's a possibility, like some people that are very looped in have had him at thirty second overall to like Seattle, you know, throughout this draft process. But the chance Agendarian Price is there in round two is probably what like ninety eight ninety nine percent?

00:16:29
Speaker 2: Right?

00:16:30
Speaker 1: So does that mean that like right away when round two starts, the Jags are going to trade up.

00:16:34
Speaker 2: I mean, it just doesn't.

00:16:35
Speaker 1: Seem like a reasonable thing to follow. Maybe it means that the Jags are interested in running back, which sure, we can maybe act on that. But there's a lot of reports like that where it's like, what is the action here? And how realistic is this thing? And so yeah, I mean a lot of smoke, a lot of teams probably doing some misdirection stuff, and it's hard to believe what's what's really going to go on. And I think it's even harder in a draft like this where there aren't these very clear stuts, like you know, I again, I like Jordan Tyson. Jeremiah Love is a stud But the fact that we're talking about very much in rebuild mode teams Arizona Tennessee, right, these teams that are probably a couple of years away, the fact that we're talking about them taking Jeremiah Love says to me that this class just lacks that high end talent.

00:17:25
Speaker 2: Because they're willing to go out.

00:17:27
Speaker 1: And I talked about the positional value stuff with last week or the week before whatever it was, Yeah, you know it. Yeah, it tells me that this class is really lacking up up top.

00:17:36
Speaker 2: But also I think I don't know, like we might see a situation where someone trades up to get a running back. How crazy would that be?

00:17:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, it'd be nuts. Well, so.

00:17:46
Speaker 1: I am I genuinely think that we are going to see madness tomorrow. I hope it's gonna be crazy.

00:17:52
Speaker 4: I hope you're right. I mean I want things to get crazy. I want the the you know, the oh or everyone just goes nuts and starts running around the room moment.

00:18:04
Speaker 2: I remember we had that when like A. J. Brown was traded. Yeah, well you were Yeah.

00:18:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, mine was like tears, like shock. There was no one like them.

00:18:13
Speaker 1: We need, Like, I think we might get stuff like that going on in this draft, just because every team is going to have such different evaluations, Like I obviously focus on the scope position players, but even then, like there's no like Jordan Tyson's getting steam short, but he's not the consensus wide receiver one. Even if you look at like you know, these these mock draft sites, Carnal Tait has comfortably been the wide receiver one in this class all off season or for most of the off season. So I think teams are gonna have varying levels of you know, from evaluation standpoint on these guys. We'll talk about Tyson in a little bit, but I I just think it's gonna be sort of the wild West when it comes to what we see on Thursday.

00:18:53
Speaker 4: All right said index of suspicions that you shot me in the back with.

00:19:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, the AJ Brown, The A J. Brown one though, was so I here's what I.

00:19:05
Speaker 4: Have stated, your measured response because like you were like, at best case, at best case, like you're you're going to get a guy who at his like top level is going to be where AJ Brown is, and that is like a top five percent outcome, And turns out that guy's now not even he.

00:19:28
Speaker 2: Hit the bottom five percent.

00:19:30
Speaker 4: Hey, some bad injuries and everything else.

00:19:32
Speaker 2: I felt bad for the guy, but yeah, I.

00:19:35
Speaker 4: Remember specifically like clinging to what you had to say and being like, you know what, JJ's right, you know this is gonna be a dark time for the Titans, and you're right. Okay, moving on Garrett Asmyer, this was an odd one. Had I guess they found a cyst on his spine that he had played with. He had some back issue during the season. You know, you get played with it. My question is how are they just now finding this during like the NFL stuff.

00:20:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I don't know what kind of MRIs and stuff these players are getting, but I will. The thing that's interesting to me is that they said that he's not gonna get surgery right now, and maybe he will, like after the draft is over. Like that he's trying to make it not seem like a big deal and then he'll once he has a team, then he'll be like, oh, I'm going to go, you know, get the surgery done. But they said it would be like a two or three week turnaround if you were to get the surgery. And I'm thinking to myself like like they're basically waiting for symptoms to arise. And I know there's a lot of like I'm not a doctor, and I definitely you know, read stuff and listen to podcasts and stuff like that, and there's a lot of really interesting thoughts on something like full body MRI and the reason why people don't do shouldn't do full body MRIs because you might discover something that you actually don't need to fix, but you have it, and then you go and fix it, and then that causes more problems, right, So this could be a situation like this where the doctors are like, don't go in and fix it because it actually might cause more problems. And just the way that it's being reported is like, oh, yeah, walk in the park. It's like your wisdom teeth, you know, it's like a big deal. It's fine, yeah, right, I mean, spinal stuff is scary. It's always scary, and so I don't know. On one hand, I'm like, if the reporting is accurate, then why would he not just get this surgery immediately and not have to deal with it because they're saying that he wouldn't have to deal with it after that surgery.

00:21:25
Speaker 2: On the other hand, I'm like the reporting on this.

00:21:27
Speaker 1: Is probably like downplaying it a little bit because nus Meyer's about to be drafted and that's what.

00:21:32
Speaker 4: His stock tanked last year.

00:21:36
Speaker 1: And there was injury focus. I mean, realistically, now like this injury related.

00:21:40
Speaker 4: Maybe someone's going to get a steal. Maybe that will be a prediction, or another quarterback will be a prediction. In the main event, today, I will give you just a quick story. I tore like my acl it. We've talked about this in high school and I had some scar tissue. And my wife's friend I became buddies with and he ran his dad's office, his dad's doctor hat Rack, who was the doctor responsible for nursing t O back to health to get him to play in the Super Bowl, and now he goes around. So they had all the state of the art machine. They put me through this to try to get my knee better. I stayed in Atlanta and for three days went through all the stuff and it was painful trying to work out scar tissue. And I was like, man, it's still hurting. So I went to the doctor and I had assist on my knee. That was painful, and all that work that I did was for nothing. Yeah, I mean got out the doctor hat Rack is though at least it was cool to be like I got to do the hyperbaric chamber.

00:22:42
Speaker 2: I got to do that. Yeah what the what the professionals do?

00:22:45
Speaker 4: Yeah? Yeah, that's my story, all right. Moving on to something I haven't been done in it. That's be arrested Zach Greg Branch arrested. This I don't even I don't even know, Like people are idiots, Georgia players notably, you know, just like, don't drive cars if you're a player at Georgia. But you were already well on Branch.

00:23:12
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I was already, But wasn't this just wasn't he just sitting on the like he didn't move off the sidewalk.

00:23:18
Speaker 2: Wasn't that wasn't that the charge?

00:23:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's like on the sidewalk and then uh, you know, he just he wasn't being It wasn't like a bad charge. But still I.

00:23:30
Speaker 2: Don't, I literally don't. I don't care about it.

00:23:32
Speaker 4: You can't be arrested revenue.

00:23:34
Speaker 1: I I want look, I want to find reasons to be even lower on zach rya Branch, the player, but this is going to make me be higher on him because it's ridiculous, like he got you know, it's just a non story.

00:23:44
Speaker 2: I think everyone has been in a position where they've probably been.

00:23:46
Speaker 4: A little you know, feeling a little good, yeah.

00:23:48
Speaker 1: And maybe not talk back to a police officer and not you know, listen to the police officer.

00:23:52
Speaker 2: But regardless, you know, he wasn't going to have.

00:23:55
Speaker 4: Your own story time.

00:23:56
Speaker 2: Yeah he wasn't. He wasn't being violent. He wasn't. It was just a you shouldn't be there, and he stayed there kind of situation and he probably you know, was I think he was smirking a little bit, they reported, But.

00:24:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to me, it's not really a big deal. I don't think it will affect his draft stock, you know. I think that what's going to affect his draft stock more is the fact that, you know, the movement that he had on that sidewalk is about as much as far away as he got from the line of scrimmage where he played played in college. You know, the dude just I mean, he was a screen merchant and he's not He's just not a normal He's a gadgety wide receiver. And this from our perspective, what we care about fantasy football, we care way more about, you know, guys who are not this archetype basically, right, Like this is the Malachi Corley, Anthony Schwartz, Canarius Tony, Rondell Moore to a degree.

00:24:47
Speaker 2: Uh, that's the.

00:24:48
Speaker 1: Kind of player that we're looking at with zach Rye Branch. And it's just a really scary evaluation from a fantasy perspective. As as as for the arrest, there are dudes that are in the league right now that have done in definitely times worse than what Branch just did, right, and you know teams are still employing them. Maybe he falls twenty spots or something where he would have gone otherwise. Yeah, because it's just like enough to be a tiebreaker. But I really don't think this should be any all.

00:25:16
Speaker 4: Right, the Giants fleeced. I mean, the Giants traded a pick two or a player to the Bengals for number ten overall pick. Now they have two picks in the top ten, reportedly courting Tyson as well. You've got the love situation. What's your thoughts on what the Giants could should do?

00:25:39
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance. So look, I'm not again.

00:25:42
Speaker 1: You guys are going to listen to some bold predictions on this show today, and I have a caveat that. I am not a betting analyst whatsoever. That's not what I'm doing here.

00:25:51
Speaker 4: You know.

00:25:51
Speaker 1: If that's what you're here for, I'm sorry you're not going to get that. I mean, you can take whatever information you want and use it, but I'm not telling you to do that because I'm going pretty bold with these predictions. But in my opinion, I think that Jeremiah Love start stuff starts at pick five because I don't think Tennessee's gonna I mean, there's been more and more reports that Tennessee is not going to do that from from more reputable reporters. R Jeremiah Love at three now, some people have mocked him there that that I listened to, you know, like Peter Schreger, for instance, had Jeremiah Love at three today.

00:26:26
Speaker 2: I just can't look.

00:26:28
Speaker 1: This is a coach that doesn't come from a background of really heavily investing in the running back position. Number one, but number two, I I just I don't know. I three for a team like Arizona with so many holes and so many problems, it just seems like such an insane luxury to make that pick. To me, it feels like they're trying to get a team to trade up for that spot, for that pick.

00:26:53
Speaker 2: That's where the Titans feel like.

00:26:54
Speaker 4: Two.

00:26:55
Speaker 2: Yes, but I could see that.

00:26:56
Speaker 1: I could see the Giants doing it because they have a new coaching staff and joh Harbaugh's kind of old school. I could I could see them going in that direction with Jeremiah Love. Now, there's a lot of stuff in steam with Jordan Tyson being tied to them now, and he could go as early as pick five, it does feel like one of these two picks is going to be an offensive piece and that's gonna be relevant for fantasy football. You know, if it's a wide receiver. I think that Carnel Tate would work pretty well with Molique Neighbors.

00:27:27
Speaker 2: But anyone should be able to work with mo League neighbors, so it could still be Tate.

00:27:31
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean overall, I would say one of the two picks will will end up being an offensive player.

00:27:38
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, they're in I feel like they're in a good a good spot. We talked about love. What's love got to do with it? I mean as far as third fourth, Let's say the Giants don't pick him at five, though, where does he go?

00:27:57
Speaker 2: Seven? To Washington?

00:27:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, or team A team comes in swoops in. Sure, I wouldn't even count out like New Orleans. Still, even though they got etn like that, it's still a I wouldn't I wouldn't like bet that. But the weird thing with with Arizona is that they have They signed Tyler Algear, it kept James Connor, they have Trey Benson. They brought back Bam Knight, which look some of these guys. It's like you can put on practice squad or you can cut them, whatever the case may be. It's just another reason in my opinion, that they're not going to go running back, right, So we'll see. I mean, maybe maybe it ends up happening. I would It would just be so insane to me from a from a team building perspective, it would be so insane.

00:28:42
Speaker 2: Not only that, but it feels like people you know, I'm not evaluating edge, but it feels like people have the two that are gonna go like two three in this draft, or like they feel they could go two three.

00:28:53
Speaker 1: So just get a position of high, high importance. For a team that's rebuilding, it just makes a lot more sense to go that direction.

00:29:02
Speaker 4: Okay, Uh, we already talked about the h the Jordan Tyson's team. Do you want to say anything more about it or do you want to?

00:29:09
Speaker 1: I think I think just that, like the only reason we feel the way that we feel is because we've been hearing and seeing what other draft analysts are saying about Tyson as opposed to what an NFL team might feel. I think that there's a chance that there's plenty of teams out there that don't have Jordan Tyson as their wide receiver one on the board, but they're like, he is tantalizing, and there's enough to his profile to say, oh, he's by far the wide receiver one in this class because we're going to ignore the downside. And then you know, he had that workout last week, right on Friday last week, and he looked fine. He looked totally fine, and people are like, you know, there was that one clip of him running that fade and he's jumping out of the you know, out of the building, and like it was just like an insanely you know, as people would say, tiktoky type type rep Right.

00:29:55
Speaker 2: The thing is though, and everyone's like, oh, why he didn't have to jump like that. Yeah, Kitchen's now imitating it. He didn't have to jump like that.

00:30:01
Speaker 1: He didn't have to do that, but guys, he kind of did because he's showing in that situation that he from a mechanism standpoint, his body is able to do that, to do that thing, and he's showing the teams, the gms, the coaches who are there that he can do everything right now that the hamstring is in the past. In the rear view, and I've heard you know, doctors, now doctor Chow for instance, you know, go out there and say that the hamstring is not the issue here.

00:30:28
Speaker 2: The issue is more so the knee. And I've said this throughout the offseason.

00:30:31
Speaker 1: If you're going to use the knee injury as a knock on Jordan Tyson, Jordan Tyson's third year in college was probably the best single season of any wide receiver in this.

00:30:41
Speaker 2: Class from a pro rated standpoint.

00:30:44
Speaker 1: So he bounced back from that knee just fine. You know, it doesn't seem like that's a problem either. Yeah, So I think I think all of it's just coming together now where you know, some of these reporters slash draft analysts who do mockx, who are tied into the league now know that some of these teams really do cove it Jordan Tyson, and as a result, he's just moving up draft boards. I don't think it's all steam like I think Jordan. I mean, I bet I said I'm not gonna get betting advice, but this is this is in the past though, so it doesn't matter. I bet Jordan Tyson wide receiver went off the board a few weeks ago because of some of this stuff right, because this is a situation where the wide receiver class seems interchangeable, there's not a consensus. And to think that Carneal Tate, I mean, I still think that Carneal tit is a very real chance to be the wide receiver one. But from a at that point, from the from an odds perspective, he was like very locked in as the wide receiver one is class.

00:31:37
Speaker 2: But meanwhile you go from analysts to analyst, you know, Lewis.

00:31:41
Speaker 1: Riddicks out there talking about how Jordan Tyson is a difference making wide receiver, that he's elite and he's great, and you know, does that model I'm not in the national media, but does that model really likes Jordan Tyson too? There's enough there for me to say Jordan Tyson is a good, a great prospect, right and that he's got a higher.

00:31:59
Speaker 2: Ceiling than Carnell ten I truly believe that to be the case. So will that come to fruition in the NFL, We'll see, But I can understand why he could be a top ten pick in this draft.

00:32:09
Speaker 4: Right now. You've got Carnell Tait on DK going fifteen or sixteen spots ahead of Tyson.

00:32:15
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:32:16
Speaker 1: I think I drafted thirty thirty to thirty five percent Tyson in my early Best Ball drafts because he did the gap, dude, the gap on keep trade cut.

00:32:25
Speaker 2: If you look past.

00:32:26
Speaker 1: Rookie rankings, because rookie rankings, you had those two and then Tyson. Tyson was the three behind Lemon and Tate, right, Yeah, from a rookie rankings, but when you look at rookie rankings, we have fewer players, so there's you know, there's no gap between these wide receivers when you looked at overall rankings. I don't know if it's changed over last week or two, but when you looked at overall rankings, McKay Lemon and Carnell Tate were like fringe top twenty wide receivers on keep trade cut, Jordan Tyson was like closer to wide receiver thirty. Like there was a an actual gap that was being formed from those two guys to Jordan Tyson.

00:32:56
Speaker 2: I don't get it. I just I think at the very least he should be in the same tier those guys. You know, I'm some people will not like them, that's fine, but I'm saying consensus wise, it's kind of shocking to me.

00:33:06
Speaker 4: We had a someone asked when we're going to do ll So ask when we're going to do a combine challenge? You like that rep that I did. I'll just say this, this is the the football for that we got from the Hall of Fame, from the Fancy Full Expo.

00:33:21
Speaker 2: Also, someone so so Matt is saying in chat all this Tyson talk is going to make JJ look like a genius or an idiot.

00:33:27
Speaker 1: Guys do not consume prospect information in this way. It drives me absolutely nuts. There are I profile, We profiled almost one hundred players in the Prospect Guide. If I live and die by one player's outcome, when we know there's such an insane amount of variance there, it's absurd. It's like the way people like you Luthor Burden last year, like well you better be right about luth Burden and then I'm like, okay, then what you know, Like it's just other guys that I'm evaluating, Like there's other players that we should be focused on too. I understand that it's a highly you know, it's a it's a top of your rookie draft kind of pick and stuff, But this is why I don't take victory laps very frequently. And why you know, I'm fine with saying I'm wrong about stuff because there's variants.

00:34:06
Speaker 2: With this stuff. Guys like, it's just the way that it is. Just go with a process, you'll be right more often than not.

00:34:12
Speaker 4: All right, We've got a mock draft that if we have time, we can look at. But it's it's a one of the best mock drafts I've seen. So we'll take a look at that at the end if we have time. With that's let's get on to today's data.

00:34:29
Speaker 2: Today's data.

00:34:33
Speaker 4: All right, we're looking at top one hundred wide receivers since twenty eighteen with the lower than seventy five percent or greater than seventy five percent slot. Right.

00:34:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I was doing the newsletter that Godula and I did that got sent out yesterday, which was thirty stats to know about this year's NFL draft class.

00:34:51
Speaker 2: I do it every year. We have a different number every year. I think last year was twenty five, this year was thirty.

00:34:57
Speaker 1: But I found it interesting as I went through the evaluation process with Makaya Lemon and I looked at his profile analytically, and I've talked to Matt harmon or.

00:35:07
Speaker 2: I watched him while I was writing the profile.

00:35:10
Speaker 1: I liked McKay lemon more and more sort of as the process went on, And I've said a lot on the show that I think McKay lemon is a fairly you know, landing spot dependent prospect from the standpoint of like what we'll see in fantasy football.

00:35:24
Speaker 2: I think that the easiest go to.

00:35:26
Speaker 1: Is looking at Amanas Saint Brown, where you know, different kind of prospects from a standpoint of like how tow did they were, you know what their metrics looked like, et cetera. Like mkayle Lemon has better metrics than amen Ros Saint Brown did. Aman Rossaint Brown, though, had pretty good metrics for a fourth round pick. Regardless, you can you can kind of envision what McKay lemon would be in the NFL from a ceiling perspective in fantasy football. When you think about amen Ros Saint Brown inside out, mover peppered with targets, you get a quarterback who's good on those timing routes when structure is there, right. The problem is if it's not there, I wonder what you know we might I only see seventy percent of phenomenal.

00:36:01
Speaker 2: Saint Brown's production.

00:36:02
Speaker 1: Really looks like and so Lemon in a spot where he doesn't have an opportunity to get pepper with those targets where he doesn't have a great quarterback to be able to feed him the ball in that way, that becomes a little bit scary.

00:36:14
Speaker 2: Regardless, all of his marks.

00:36:16
Speaker 1: Looked really good analytically, and then I did a query for this newsletter. And I've researched this in the past, don't get me wrong, but it's it was more glaring whenever I did it. You know, this week top one one hundred wide receivers. This is a list of all the top one hundred wide receivers since twenty eighteen who had career slot rates above seventy five percent, and it's looking at their sorry and also who had out wide yards per out run rates above three because that's sort of a sticking point for Mikay Lemon is that people say he's only a slot, but when you look at what he did on the perimeter, he had the best perimeter yards per out run in this class. Unfortunately, there have been other slot receivers over the last handful of years that have come out and had really good out wide yards per out run rates above three, I mean yards prout run above three is phenomenal, and all of them but one of them busted, literally every single one. Miko Hardman, Elijah Moore, Rondel Moore, two to two out Well, Treylan Berks, Jalen Hyatt, Malachai Corley. Those are the dudes who had yards per out run rates on the outside greater than three and a seventy five percent slot rate above seventy five percent. The only hit is Jackson Smith and Jigba. Now, if you look at Jackson Smith and Jigba's profile, I would say that matches up more. This is where the pro side comes from. Akai Lemon A little bit is that. And some people might be wondering, like, well, why would they be so good on the outside on the perimeter in yards perro out run when their slot rates so high. One of the reasons could easily just be variants, right, because when you are playing in the slot so much, that means you're not out wide that much. When you're not out wide that much, your sample size is small, and that can skew things. It's very similar to the argument that people have about zone versus man right now, where they're sitting there and they're like, oh, zone yards per out run is so much more predictable and predictive than man yards per out run, which is not wrong. But at the same time, players play against zone more frequently, and so when there's more zone reps and more zone routes, you get a higher sample size which will increase that correlation because the better wide receivers are going to be good in zone just like they're gonna be You can look at career archs per out run and get a similar, you know.

00:38:28
Speaker 2: Uh outlook on a player.

00:38:29
Speaker 1: Let's say, you know, basically like I think zone yards pro outrun you can look at and you can start to be like, oh, this is really frightening for this prospect. But don't only use that number to justify drafting a player or not. Now, it's a similar thing with MacKaye Lemon. The problem the difference with McKayle Lemon to a to to at Well or even trey Lon Burks.

00:38:47
Speaker 2: He had at a better career archs per out run rate.

00:38:50
Speaker 1: You can see in this chart it was better than everybody but Jackson Smith and Jigva Right.

00:38:54
Speaker 2: He had a really elite first downs per out run rate. He had a really good slot per out run rate. The old only one on this group that was above three in slots and slot yards per out run was Jackson Smith and Jigbo, which tells you which is kind of counterintuitive, because they're slot players, but they're not great and they're not as good in the slot as they are in the perimeter. But again, it just goes back to this idea that you're getting a larger sample size from the slot because more reps are coming from the slot. And the good thing for makay Lemon is that he's a two point eighty six yards per out run right from the slot. That's better than all of these wide receivers.

00:39:27
Speaker 1: He's also you know, a lot of these guys are early declares, but he's an early declare. There's a lot of good stuff to makay Lemon's profile, But I do think that this speaks to the idea more about McKay lemon being more landing spot dependent than maybe some other people would think. And it's just another reason why I feel more comfortable with having Jordan Tyson as the wide receiver one in.

00:39:46
Speaker 5: This class with a name like Lemons it's tough, like if you're a bust, because then people just the puns ripe themselves.

00:39:58
Speaker 4: Someone in the chat mentioned Brian Hartline. Uh, you know that OSU receivers, State receivers have the had the benefit of Brian Hartline. Anxious to see if that, uh, that trend continues. As far as Heartline and his wide receiver magic he.

00:40:14
Speaker 2: Move, didn't didn't he go to a different isn't he coaching?

00:40:16
Speaker 4: And uh, Miami, yeah, Miami, Well we're.

00:40:20
Speaker 2: He No, he's signed with a South Florida That's what it was.

00:40:26
Speaker 4: Yeah, USF that's where Miami is located in South Forida. Yeah, but I mean like like, yes, I was thinking of where he was as a receiver, actual receiver.

00:40:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I knew that he went somewhere else though, and so it's gonna be interesting to see, what if there's a pipeline there right, all of a sudden we get all these wide receivers. But yeah, we'll see, we'll see. It's very interesting.

00:40:44
Speaker 1: Also, Matt Matt said, because I, uh, whenever he said that, JJ's either gonna look like an idiot or a genius. Jordan Tyson he says, I'm just gonna go back to missing the live stream. JJ doesn't have a chance to call me out. I love you, Matt, I love you. You know, I'm just happy he is VP of missing the live stream.

00:41:02
Speaker 4: All Right. With that being said, let's get onto it. It's the main event. It's the late round, main event, all right. The first one, these are bold predictions. We have predictions. The first one is that Jonah Coleman is going to be the second running back drafted.

00:41:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a lot, Like I think Jenarian Price is the favorite for sure. I'm putting Jonah Coleman here because I think he has the best, like from a from a real team perspective, right, Like I'm not talking fantasy and what we're looking at.

00:41:37
Speaker 2: Like, I like Emma Johnson a lot.

00:41:38
Speaker 1: I think Emma Johnson, you could argue, has this too, But Jonah Coleman has the size, and he has the production, and he has that do it all ability that we've already seen happen, you know in college.

00:41:50
Speaker 2: He has a good pass catching profile for his size too. Yeah. The thing that I think, you know, he didn't test the combine.

00:41:56
Speaker 1: He actually didn't test athletically, I think at all he didn't have a forty least. And I think that from like a a normy perspective, you know, draft analysts who are putting together mock drafts naturally pushes a guy down a little bit because of the uncertainty. But teams might not either not care about that as much or they have information that we don't have. And so it's a long shot, but I'm gonna say that Jonah Coleman is the RB two in this class from a draft capital perspective.

00:42:24
Speaker 4: There you go. You've got Carson Beck is the Steelers target.

00:42:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's some vibes trending in this direction, some reports out of Pittsburgh that it could be the pick. But I think what's interesting about this, and this is probably my least fun call out on this show in my opinion, the Carson back one. But I think that the Steelers, when you look at their quarterback room, obviously they're waiting for Aaron Rodgers. They have Will Howard, who they're gonna hypothetically be starting this year. If Aaron Rodgers is not, you know, it doesn't report, it doesn't want to play.

00:43:01
Speaker 2: I still think Aaron Rodgers is gonna play.

00:43:02
Speaker 1: I've been drafting him in Bestball because you can get him in like the twentieth round, and you know, you get a free, potential free starting quarterback.

00:43:09
Speaker 2: But Beck at least has that experience where.

00:43:12
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to find that really with other quarterbacks to that degree, and that would be intriguing for a team like Pittsburgh where that room does.

00:43:19
Speaker 4: Not have that. You've also got Garrett and Asmeyer, the guy we just talked about.

00:43:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. I think the Steelers will probably throw a dart at Yeah, they have to. You would think if they don't, then they know something about Aaron Rodgers.

00:43:38
Speaker 4: But even with Aaron Rodgers, I feel like they still have to.

00:43:40
Speaker 1: It's so ridiculous though, that this quarterback, Like if the media and what is being reported is true and what they're saying the media is true, I don't know. It feels like they should have They would have been doing more at the quarterback position if they thought that Aaron Rodgers was not coming back.

00:43:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, especially when they went and got Pittman and you could had cousins you know, yeah, yeah, yeah right. The next bold prediction, Denzel Boston isn't picked in round one, so after.

00:44:09
Speaker 2: All that steam Yeah, he's not gonna be picked around one.

00:44:13
Speaker 1: Again, all of these are bold predictions, so I think that they're going to happen. That's why they're bold, right Like, I think Denzel Boston's probably a Round one wide receiver, but he's dipped that low outside of round one in early April and NFL mock draft database, and he doesn't have a clean analytical profile, you know. I talked about that on the show that dropped yesterday on the on the pre draft ranking show.

00:44:35
Speaker 2: And there's a lot of reporting.

00:44:37
Speaker 1: Now, Look, I don't I don't see like when I look at floor and ceiling for a player, I'm looking at it mostly analytically, and usually this kind of arch type of player I would almost always put as highly volatile, right like, But but volatility doesn't always equate to floor ceiling. And the way that teams are viewing him is that, seemingly, because I've seen this said multiple times, is that he's a floor guy, but not a ceiling guy, you know, in the way that they describe Denzel Boston, which you know, my top com for him, I think is Jayden Higgins. I think it's like a pretty one to one analytical profile from from one to the other. And you could maybe argue the same thing for Higgins, where it's like he's a solid player, but I don't know if the ceiling is really gonna be gonna get there. Portland Sutton to a degree, has kind of been like that.

00:45:27
Speaker 2: Throughout his NFL career, where it's like it's always a little bit more that you're you're you're hoping for with Portland Sutton, you know. And so I think if enough teams just kind.

00:45:35
Speaker 1: Of realize that there's a situation in the scenario where uh, you know, teams don't value him as anything more than a late first round pick, and then the teams that do value him lower than that are the ones that are picking in that range. The problem with some of this is that late first is when a lot of teams are drafting that need wide receivers. And so I do think that Boston is probably going to be a first rounder still, but I think.

00:45:56
Speaker 2: That, you know, like I I feel better about.

00:45:59
Speaker 1: Casey Conceptsio a first round pick, for instance, that's all Boston at this part, or Omark Cooper.

00:46:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they they say the sixth wide receiver is gonna be in the first round. If Boston isn't in the first round. I wonder if there's gonna be someone that might take his spot there. Gus, we just have to wait. Mike Washington, it doesn't go day too. What's it?

00:46:22
Speaker 2: Was that a teaser for later in the Uh, just.

00:46:25
Speaker 4: Let the teas play out, Just let people be teased.

00:46:28
Speaker 1: So I vibe coded something with the zapp model, which you guys are seeing a screenshot of here, which is pretty fun. It's mostly good for me because I can just go and and query stuff while I'm on.

00:46:38
Speaker 2: Shows and stuff like that. But uh, Mike Washington, my bold prediction is that he does not go day two.

00:46:44
Speaker 1: Maybe that doesn't seem bold to people. But if I mock draft database has I'm sixtieth overall right now. So that's a late round two pick, you know, Like that's he's he's kind of firmly in day two right now after what he did the combine. But I'll say it again, like I thought he looked better last year when I watched him, and his numbers were better last year, but his career numbers are pretty lacking. I mean, twelve percentile avoided tackles per attempt, even though he had that crazy forty in speed Score. His explosive run rate is the twenty second percentile. I look how it says. It says twenty second percentile in the screenshot instead the twenty second.

00:47:21
Speaker 2: Got to talk to Claude about that.

00:47:24
Speaker 1: Yards after contact per attempts sixteenth percentile, yards before contact per attempt twenty ninth percentile. That's amongst all running backs since twenty twenty in the zap Moodel database. So I think Mike Washington is fine within the context of this class.

00:47:40
Speaker 2: I'm not really high or low. I hope he's not a first round rookie pick.

00:47:43
Speaker 1: Then I'll probably be out on him unless he finds the exact spot like Seattle or something like that. But I think there's a chance that teams are more interested in the boring guys like I met Johnson and Jonah Coleman instead of going the Mike Washington route. Okay, Bryce Lance goes late round two.

00:48:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, this is a size speed thing. Teams fall in love with that.

00:48:05
Speaker 1: We know teams fall in love with that, and so you know, if you look at NFL mock draft database or a lot of places, like he was a Day three guy for a while.

00:48:14
Speaker 2: Maybe late day two.

00:48:16
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna say he's gonna go late round two because it's a profile that a team like the Colts. Okay, Chris Ballard loves going after these athletic you know.

00:48:27
Speaker 2: Alec Pierce, ad Ni Mitchell.

00:48:29
Speaker 1: He loves going after these athletic you know, field stretching, you know beasts. They even got Michael Strahan, a guy from Charleston. I think he was undrafted, but.

00:48:41
Speaker 2: They even had him on the roster for a while and he was a six five, you know, two thirty, just crazy frame. I could see a team like that falling in love with Bryce Lance and getting him and in my opinion, overdrafting him. I just don't think he's as good of a prospect as others do. But I do think he's a very highly volatble prospect.

00:49:01
Speaker 1: So Bryce Lance to me is like one of those he's gonna be nothing for your fantasy team, or he could be like, you know, a wide receiver two if things like really really break his way. But historically, this kind of profile without a breakout score, had one reception through three years of college at a small school.

00:49:17
Speaker 2: It's a really hard sell analytically.

00:49:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, and there's some other big receivers too. In this draft, Emmitt Johnson goes ninety seventh overall to Minnesota.

00:49:29
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be specific.

00:49:30
Speaker 1: This is what were they called it in horse racing exacto right, Yeah, I'm not a horse racing guy, but yeah, Emmitt Johnson goes specifically ninety seventh overall. They have a comp pick there to Minnesota because I've said it all along. I think he's like an Aaron Jones type running back and they need a player who can do everything right. They have Jordan Mason, who's an early down bruiser. They have Aaron Jones who's you know, at the sunset of his career. It's he's not the same back that he that he was, you know, three or four years ago. This is the kind of running back they need in my opinion, And I just like the matching of the comps and you know what they kind of need from a team needs standpoint.

00:50:11
Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna call it out.

00:50:12
Speaker 1: We get top one hundred capital for Emma Johnson does that model views him as the RB two in the class as a result of that, and who goes to Minnesota where the landing spot is great and we're drafting him chef's kiss and fantasy football confidence and be prepared, be prepared for a Day three pick to a bad team.

00:50:27
Speaker 4: Though I hope that Emma Johnson goes Simonie because my bags are packed so far with Emma Johnson. All right, oh wow, look at this. You said Boston is out of round one, Chris Brasel sneaks into round one. This is your other bold prediction. It's a little parlay action.

00:50:46
Speaker 1: I could see a team just liking Brasl more than Boston, because again, Boston has that what they're describing as like a high floor, low ceiling.

00:50:54
Speaker 2: I think Brasl is a low floor, high ceiling type prospect. Like for sure, he has a very comparable breakout score to Boston. He has a better yards pro out run profile. But I have this from the newsletter, then I think is just interesting to talk about both of these players. Says.

00:51:10
Speaker 1: There have been thirty one wide receivers in zapmodel database history who were drafted in round one or round two with a breakout score below fifty. That's like a sixtieth percent tile ish number. I know that it should be fiftieth percentile to be a little bit easier to comprehend and understand, but I want to show the gaps between one breakout score to the next. Of those thirty one first or second round wide receivers, there have been five, just five, who scored fourteen or more PPR points per game in one of their first three seasons. Denzel Boston, Omar Cooper, they have sub fifty breakout scores, which is again roughly.

00:51:39
Speaker 2: Fifty fifth sixtieth percentile.

00:51:41
Speaker 1: And then I said, speaking of Denzel Boston, he has a career yards pro out run rate of two point h two since twenty eighteen, just seven wide receivers we're able to hit a fourteen PPR point per game season across their first three years in the league with the yards pro out run rate below two point two, a number much higher than Denzel Boston's.

00:51:58
Speaker 2: Only two of them were early to Claire widerss uh, We're only two of them were non really.

00:52:03
Speaker 1: I should say non early declare wide receivers Hunter Renfro and Terry McLaurin, and Boston is not in early declare. Chris Brasel has a two point zero nine yards prout run rate, so Brazl and Boston analytically are in this bucket. Of red flax right from a yards prout run standpoint, the breakout score is an elite per se so I but but again, I only say that because I could see a team just shifting for ceiling and going with Brasl instead of going with Denzel Boston, and we see him go at the end around one instead of Boston. It couldn't could end up being like a Ricky Piersoll Xavier Legette kind of situation where people are.

00:52:40
Speaker 2: Like, oh, they're you know, early to mid round two type players, and then they just sneak in a round one because teams get a little antsy.

00:52:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, and this is going to contribute just to the craziness of the draft. In our late round mock draft, I drafted Brasl to the Titans in the third round.

00:52:59
Speaker 2: With are I should say, I think there might be off the field stuff with Brazil two that could like if he goes really like yeah, if he goes late round three or day three, that would probably be the main reason, because there is a skill set there that's at least in like a team is going to fall I don't love Brazl. I'm just saying a team would fall in love with that kind of skill set.

00:53:18
Speaker 4: Yeah. Can I tease one of the comps from the prospect guy, sure, George Pickens.

00:53:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was the that was the third one I think for him. Yeah.

00:53:25
Speaker 1: So another guy, Carnel Tait has is much more George Pickens from analytically.

00:53:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, but there's an over there's some overlap there. I was just saying off the field uh concern Yeah with Pickens, and because I talked to redacted about this because he's the one doing the the mock draft as far as the off the field stuff there. But you've got him, you got Hurst, you got all these guys that are in this bucket that you we don't know where they're going to go in rounds two and three, and that's what that's what makes it fun, all right. So let's get on to a another receiver. We just talked about lots of receivers here the Raiders draft. Elijah Sharratt. Yeah.

00:54:06
Speaker 2: If you look at the.

00:54:06
Speaker 1: Raiders depth chart right now, there aren't They don't have like the contested catch wide receiver right like they have Jack Besh, who I think is probably not going to hit at the NFL level.

00:54:19
Speaker 4: He was a one hit wonder. We were Yeah, drafting him high last year.

00:54:24
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I wouldn't say we were some people, but they.

00:54:29
Speaker 1: Have Trey Tucker, they have Jalen Naylor now who can play the slot. I could see them wanting to pair for Nana Mendoza with Elijah Surat, And it's not bold to say Sarah could going round three. I think he has a better analytical profile than that. But if Sarat is there.

00:54:45
Speaker 2: Round three, I'm gonna say another exact of him going to the Raiders.

00:54:50
Speaker 4: There you go, a little shower narrative.

00:54:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, exactly with.

00:54:55
Speaker 4: Him and Fernando Mendoza at Indiana teammates. Okay, boy, this guy, he's been in the news. Zacharia Branch goes all the way to day three. Now.

00:55:06
Speaker 2: I think enough teams might be like, I don't want to spend a Day two pick because of this stupid arrest and it's gonna show judgment whatever.

00:55:12
Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna it's stupid, but that could happen. But also, I think he's a gadget player pre production profile. There's other gadget guys in this class as well, where a team might say, oh, I can get Kendrick Law day three or something. Like that, and then all of a sudden, they just go that, you know, they have that in their mind, and that pushes Zacharia Branch.

00:55:30
Speaker 2: Out of day two conversation.

00:55:33
Speaker 4: Speedy Gadget receiver with you know, a recent arrest, just screams Kansas City Chiefs to me.

00:55:41
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he's definitely gonna be a chief.

00:55:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, last one, last one, And this is might be my favorite. Elike Stauers goes round one.

00:55:49
Speaker 1: He's currently forty eighth overall on NFL mock Draft database. And I think that a lot, Like I said, a lot of teams need.

00:55:56
Speaker 2: Wide receiver help, they need pass catching help towards the back end of that first round, and I could see one of them just kind of getting cute, like the way that that uh, you know, Buffalo did with Dalton Kincaid back when they just needed wide receiver. But they're like, no, we're gonna.

00:56:09
Speaker 1: Get a pass catching tight end and go that route, even though it's not as clean. Eli Stowers, though, has a much better you know, receiving outlook than Dalton Kincaid did as a prospect, So like, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Eli Stowers ends up going round one after his combine and what he can do in the way that you know, teams are morphing into more you know, heavy personnel and such. The problem though, is that he's not he's not there yet as a blocker.

00:56:32
Speaker 2: But if a team sees him more as a blocker, I could see them making that pick.

00:56:36
Speaker 4: Lots of smoke to the Patriots. Apparently the Patriots tight end coach put him through drills at the pro day for uh for Vandy, so it would be interesting.

00:56:48
Speaker 2: There's a so Brennan and Chad no wonder. This is why, this is why I said, don't bet these things because they're they're long shots. They are so long shots. But he said parlay Bras little first round in Jonah Coleman RB two on Fandel I shouldn't say that part, probably, but it's seven to one. Do it on draftings instead, guys.

00:57:08
Speaker 4: Yeah, there you go.

00:57:09
Speaker 2: You're sponsoring the show.

00:57:10
Speaker 4: They are. They are one of the sponsors, and we appreciate them for it. Oh well, look at there. It's a huge QR code.

00:57:23
Speaker 2: Make that bet. Actually, don't make that that probably undraftings. That's probably about.

00:57:27
Speaker 4: Idea again, not betting advice. These Bowld predictions. They're just bold predictions from JJ. But if you want to scan this QR code, you can go and get in some of those early drafts over there on dk UH and again they're almost full, the main ones, but you can still get in. Like they've got dollar ones, We've got a high stakes one if you want to do that. So shout out to them. And also I want to give a shout out to our members. Look at this right here, you see this JJ. It is our late Round mock draft. So each person signed up for a team that's a part of the Patreon and we had a mock draft. Shout out to redacted, who has been a staple, a late round member staple. And on this show for someone who almost stole the Decoration of Independence last year for the Jacory Crosskey Merrits.

00:58:22
Speaker 1: I mean Krossky Maror was relevant for he was fancy relevant for the record reacted Yes, So he still says he is going to steal the Decoration of Independence.

00:58:32
Speaker 4: We wouldn't advise that. But anyways, I had the Titans. I passed on Love Love Goes to the Giants at five Tyson, he slips all the way to twelve to Cleveland, and then Carnell Tate went eight.

00:58:51
Speaker 2: There's a trade.

00:58:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's multiple trades here. Lemon to the Commander's commanders need some some wide receipt your work. But Sadiq to the Rams was interesting.

00:59:04
Speaker 2: It's been look I'll say this to end the show.

00:59:07
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah as well one as well wanted Peter Schreger.

00:59:12
Speaker 5: Uh.

00:59:13
Speaker 2: I haven't met him, I r L but i've you know, communicated on Twitter and stuff before.

00:59:17
Speaker 1: Seems like a great dude. But he is confirmed friends with Sean McVay. Like we know that he's been to I think he went to his wedding and you know he's hung out with him. He's told stories about being in at parties. I think McVay had like a surprise birthday party or something at one point. And he had Lemon going to the Rams throughout the draft season, and then today he came out with his final mock and Kenyan Sadik is the Rams draft pick in his mock.

00:59:43
Speaker 2: So just something to think about to chew on as you watch Round one.

00:59:46
Speaker 4: I think it'll be fun, that's right, mister Brad says, heard that mock draft was full of NFL insiders. Yes, there's lots of lots of US influ insiders. And yes the trade was made to from Sincy to the Giants after that pick was made, but it still is a good time. Shout out again to our members for doing that. If you want to be a member, go to Lateround dot com. You can sign up to be a member there through our Patreon or purchase the Prospect Guide JJ. What else do we have coming out?

01:00:19
Speaker 2: The prospect will be out Saturday after the draft, guys, so be ready for that.

01:00:23
Speaker 4: Okay, And with that being said, again, we appreciate the chat was lively. The chat was lively today. We appreciate you. We are looking forward to this draft and getting past because this is a good season right now. We got the rookie Draft, we got startup drafts coming up after this. It's gonna be a fun time. This was a fun show, JJ. Appreciate you. Appreciate you all, and we'll see you next time here on the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.

01:00:49
Speaker 2: Peace all right and leaving Bill