847: Week 14 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j Jake Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacheryeson in this episode eight hundred and forty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:22
Speaker 1: I went into last week's Sleeper Show with this feeling that it was gonna be a rough week, and it ended up being kind of a rough week. Derek Carr and Kenny Pickett got hurt, so they weren't good plays. Jeff Wilson didn't get that much run as a game script play, and all of the tight end streamers.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: Were pretty bad.

00:00:38
Speaker 1: And then with the deeper plays Jalen Geiton, Justin Watson, the Saints wide receivers, they weren't worth it. The best call of the week though, definitely Jake Browning. He was the QB four. He scored almost twenty seven Fantasy points. Jonathan Mingo wasn't bad, and Curtis Samuel hit double digit PPR points. I also called out Ezekiel Elliott, but I didn't anticipator Ramandre Stevenson injury, so the result was a win, but it happened because of an injury.

00:01:06
Speaker 2: I don't really want to take that w.

00:01:08
Speaker 1: Like I said, though, last week I even mentioned that it was a tough week and that ended up being the case. I'm ready to bounce back here in Week fourteen. Now, as usual, we'll kick things off this week by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you could consider starting, and we'll look at quarterback and start with Gardner Minshew. Minshew's probably the safest quarterback streamer this week. He gets Cincinnati and the Bengals are a top ten matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. The Bengals have faced some really good quarterbacks of late, but they've also allowed a top ten performance in each of their last four, and three of those quarterbacks were top five, So Minchew's okay. I do think that Josh Dobbs still has more upside than Minshew, though, assuming he starts, Dobbs will have a short leash. After his performance last time that we saw in Minnesota, he's proven to have a good ceiling on a week to week basis in Fantasy. Prior to that performance, he had ranked thirteenth, eighth, fourth, third, and thirteenth, and weekly scoring that's because he was averaging forty rushing yards per game during that stretch. He now gets Justin Jefferson back and the Vikings get the Raiders. Vegas has actually been an OK team this year against quarterbacks. By justin points allowed, that rank is the twenty first most advantageous matchup. I'm not overly concerned about that, though, it's not like they're facing the Jets. Dobbs has the most upside of any quarterback streamer this week, and then you could look at Jake Browning too. His matchup this week against the Colts. It isn't as good as the one that he had last week against the Jags, but it's still not bad. Indy's the eleventh best matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. Browning's also shown off a little bit of rushing upside since taking over for Joe Burrow. He's been giving fantasy managers a couple points per game with his legs. The weapons are there, the environ it's not bad. He could give you another serviceable performance. Now, moving on to running backs, I want to go back to Roshan Johnson. I feel like people forget the fact that the last time we saw Chicago, Roshan Johnson played seventy four percent of the Bears offensive snaps and it was a pretty neutral to positive game script. Now, Deontay Foreman wasn't healthy for that game, You'll want to keep an eye on Foreman's practice reports. With that being said, if the Bears in a negative game script against Detroit this week, I'd anticipate Johnson being on the field. According to fantasylife dot COM's utilization report, Roshan has played one hundred percent of the team's two minute snaps in three of their last four games. Johnson's a pretty strong play of Foreman's out. If Foreman's in, He's more of a cross your fingers option in PPR formats. Now, I know that Derek Henry isn't in concussion protocol, but I do think that Tajy Spears is still kind of interesting this week. The Titans are huge underdogs against Miami this week, and Spears has a ninety two minute offense snap rate this season. According to Fantasy Life, when Tennessee's trailing, he's the back who's on the field. He's seen at least an eleven percent target share in each of his last six games too. Now, Miami doesn't typically funnel targets to opposing running backs, but Spears could get a higher than normal snap count this week that makes him flex worthy in some leagues. I don't mind ty Chandler this week either. He's seen at least a thirty one percent snap share in each of his last three coinciding with Cam Aker's season ending injury, and he scored double digit PPR points in two of those three games. Alexander Madison, he's the one A in that offense, but against the Vegas defense that ranks as the seventh best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. Both of these vikings running backs have a chance to come through with decent days.

00:04:45
Speaker 2: Now.

00:04:46
Speaker 1: At wide receiver at the time of this recording, Elijah Moore is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and I like him. This week, morsaw's highest air yard share and averaged up to target with Joe Flacco. In Week thirteen, the Browns finally used Elijah Moore the way he should probably be used. He led the entire NFL in air yards. With Amari Cooper dealing with a concussion, there's a real chance Elijah Moore is Cleveland's wide receiver won this week, and they get a Jags team that ranks as the seventh best matchup for wide receivers and adjusted points allowed. Now, aside from more, I don't love the other two wide receivers that I'm about to call out in this tier. They're pretty in line with some of the deeper plays. A wide receiver that I'm going to get to in a second, but Khalil Shakira is back after a buy in Week thirteen, and in a game against Kansas City, I don't totally mind him. That contest is a healthy forty seven and a half point over under according to FANDLS Sportsbook, and the Chiefs rank eighth this season and slot target share allowed. Shakira has run seventy seven percent of his routes from that area of the field. Now, shakiers seen a boost without Dawson Knox in that lineup. Keep an eye on reports, but I couldn't find anything on Dawson Knox's potential return. But in this matchup, and with over eleven PPR points per game over his last five, Shaki's definitely in play. And then there's one other slot matchup that I want to talk about. The Steelers have been horrible against slot wideouts forever and this year is no different. On the season, Pittsburgh is allowing by far, like by far, the highest yards per route run to slot players. They get New England this week, and the Patriots could be without the Mario Douglas. Douglas has played about two thirds of his snaps from the slot this season. If he's out, we're gonna see a lot of different wide receivers get some looks.

00:06:33
Speaker 2: And it's a really dumb game environment. I get it.

00:06:35
Speaker 1: The Patriots have a team total of like twelve points. But with that being said, one player who might benefit from all of this is one who's got a revenge game. Juju Smith Schuster.

00:06:47
Speaker 2: He hasn't been.

00:06:47
Speaker 1: Productive at all over his last three games, but he did see a ninety seven percent round participation last week without Douglas. It's a desperation move, but the matchup's there at tight end this week. I'm a Isaiah Likely is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of leagues. Since Mark Andrews' injury. Likely has run a rout on about eighty three percent of Baltimore's dropbacks. That's a really really strong number at tight end. The last time that we saw him, he had a twenty percent target share. And this week Baltimore gets a Rams team that's allowed the third most adjusted points of tight ends according to my rankings, This week likely is a tight end one. I also really like Kate Otton. He's not always getting you production, but we know that he's going to be running routes. He's got the second best route participation this season at tight end across the entire league. Now, he didn't see a single target last week against Carolina, but the Panthers have actually been pretty good against tight ends this year.

00:07:43
Speaker 2: Atlanta has not been good against tight ends.

00:07:45
Speaker 1: The Falcons are the fifth best matchup according to adjusted points allowed, and they rank first an adjusted target share allowed to tight ends. So I love Aughton this week.

00:07:53
Speaker 2: As a streamer.

00:07:55
Speaker 1: And then the last thing I want to throw out there is that if Dalton Schultz misses this week against the Jets, don't forget about Brevin Jordan. Jordan ran around on sixty seven percent of CJ. Strouds dropbacks last week, and he saw a fifteen percent target chair. Because of the Jets' secondary, they often funnel targets to tight ends, they rank third and adjusted target shair allowed to the position. That's led them to being the seventh most avantageous matchup, so keep an eye on that situation. Now, the next tier consists of player's rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues, So say it with me, we're digging deeper. Joe Flacco's the quarterback streamer from this group. He looked confident this past week and was confident throwing the ball down the field, and that could come in handy against Jacksonville. The Jags are not only a top five matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed, but they're tenth in air yards allowed and they're also tenth and completion rate allowed on fifteen plus air yard throws. So Flacco makes plenty of sense as a streamer. Now at running back, I'm gonna throw DJ Dallas's name out there like I did in the fifteen Transactions episode, because Zach Sharpenay and Kenneth Walker are both banged up.

00:09:03
Speaker 2: If one of.

00:09:04
Speaker 1: Those two players goes, I would not play Dallas, but if both are out, then Dallas would be a volume based RB three this week. It's not a great matchup, but the volume could be there. Chase Brown's another one to consider in this tier. He's obviously gonna play the RB two role behind Joe Mixon, but the Colts are a top five matchup for running backs by justin points allowed, and Brown is coming off a game where he saw season high thirty two percent running back rush share. He ran the ball nine times this past week for sixty one yards. He's definitely a deep option, but some of you could be desperate this week. Now moving on to wide receiver, there are actually some okay options this week in this tier. Let's start with the combination of Robert Woods and John Metchi Without Tank Dell, Noah Brown is probably gonna play a little bit more on the perimeter than he typically does, and then Nico Collins is obviously going to be on the outside too. Brown ended up playing out wide on over sixty five percent of his routes this past week. The slot will likely be occupied by a combination of Robert Woods and John Metchi. And for the record, I'm generalizing when I talk about wide receiver alignment. Teams rotate their wide receivers all the time. Like Nico Collins will probably see some slot snaps.

00:10:15
Speaker 2: This is just a probability.

00:10:17
Speaker 1: Thing, but the slot matchup is interesting this week for Mechian Woods and even Noah Brown because he'll be thrown in there at times this week two. The Jets are amazing against wide receivers, but they've allowed the third highest target share to the slot this year. With the Texans still projected to score some points, their implied team total is middle of the road this week, those guys could benefit. Now, speaking of slot matchups, with Christian Kirk out, we might see Parker Washington handle the slot for Jacksonville. In fact, we should expect that to happen. He ran the third most routes at wide receiver for the Jags in Week thirteen, and eighty one percent of those routes came from the slot. He was a slot player in college too. My prospect model actually didn't mind Parker Washington. He had a high draft capital delta, which means the model liked him a lot more than where he was actually drafted. It's just that he fell to a spot in Jacksonville where he would be buried on the depth chart. Now he has some opportunity, and while Cleveland's a tough matchup, on paper the Browns due rank first and target share allowed to the slot this year. He's not a locked in obvious play, but he does work in deeper formats. Now, at the time of this recording, I'm not entirely sure what's going on with Christian Watson.

00:11:27
Speaker 2: Is he hurt, is he not hurt? How long is he going to be out?

00:11:30
Speaker 1: I have no idea, but if he is out, like I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode, don't sleep on Dontavian Wicks.

00:11:38
Speaker 2: He saw a significant jump in rap.

00:11:40
Speaker 1: Participation earlier this season without Christian Watson, and he's led the packers and yards per route run this year. So keep an eye on that situation. And then the last wide out in this tier, Alec Pierce. The Colts have used him a little bit more over his last two games. His rale participation has always been there. He's gotten a ton of cardio this year, but he's seen target shares of fifteen percent in each of his last two games, and last week he scored nineteen PPR points. Now Pierce will get Cincinnati. It's a team allowing the thirteenth most adjusted points to wide receivers. Pierce is also a down the field threat and the Bengals are allowing the highest average depth of target in the league. He's a vallatle player for sure, but the matchup's there now. Looking at defensive streamers this week, Houston's now rostered in a lot of leagues, but like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, they're an obvious play against the Jets. There's also green Bay against the Giants. During the giants last four games, which is where Tommy DeVito has thrown at twenty plus times in each game, they've allowed eight, five to nine and six sacks, so green Bay should be good. And then lastly, Minnesota does make some sense against Las Vegas this week. The Raiders are a top ten matchup for defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shirting for it. Pretty how much any more podcast can be found, and jeffers to follow me on.

00:13:02
Speaker 2: Twitter at Late Round QB.

00:13:05
Speaker 1: As a reminder, there's no Mailbag episode or Late Round Perspectives episode this week, so this is the last show of the week. So good luck this weekend. I'll talk to you on Tuesday with a fifteen transactions episode.

00:13:16
Speaker 2: Have a great weekend.