Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Does Training Camp Matter?

00:00:00
Speaker 1: So rich training camps here. We're hearing it all through the media. We've heard it really all off season. But these players are in the best shape of their lives. I gotta ask you, Are you in the best shape of your life right now?

00:00:10
Speaker 2: No.

00:00:12
Speaker 3: One of the last times I've played basketball, I had a minor strain in my peck and I legit thought I was having a heart attack. I ended up in the er because I thought I was dying.

00:00:21
Speaker 4: So no, very far for.

00:00:22
Speaker 5: The best shape of my life. How about you.

00:00:25
Speaker 1: Well, I just spent twenty four hours at a Great Wolf Lodge and I feel like I just ran a marathon.

00:00:31
Speaker 4: So no, I'm definitely not in the best shape of my life.

00:00:35
Speaker 1: I'm JJ and I've been playing in best ball leagues for years. But there are people out there who play a lot more than I do, and there are people out there who.

00:00:43
Speaker 4: Have won a lot more than I have, and I want to learn from them.

00:00:47
Speaker 1: This season, I'll be documenting my journey of max entering Underdog's Best ball Mania contest, and I'll be doing so with guidance from some of the most successful best ball players on the planet. This is the year or things start to change. This is the year where I officially become a best ball bro. Welcome into another episode of becoming a best ball bro.

00:01:16
Speaker 4: One day later than normal.

00:01:18
Speaker 1: I'm JJ Zach Reason and I am joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.

00:01:23
Speaker 4: What's going on, Buddy, do good Man?

00:01:24
Speaker 3: Unbelievable summer of sports. If you're a soccer guy, you had the Euros. Now we're rolling straight into the Olympics. The gold Zone has been phenomenal on Peacock. And when people are listening to this on Thursday, there's a football game on today, Jay, Jay.

00:01:40
Speaker 4: That's true. I realized it like earlier this week.

00:01:43
Speaker 1: And I was on a walk with my wife earlier today and we were talking and I was like, hey, do you know what's happening tomorrow? Because we're recording this on a Wednesday. I was like, hey, you know what's happening tomorrow? And I said that football was starting, and she said, well, it was nice.

00:01:57
Speaker 4: Knowing yeah, because she knows. She knows what happens when August hits is.

00:02:03
Speaker 1: Look, I'm still a dad, but you know, I'm not able to have as much time and energy focus to the things you know that are most important.

00:02:11
Speaker 4: But it's just the way that it is.

00:02:12
Speaker 1: This is my job, right, and so there are I always say there's like three months out of the year where things are like gravy and you know, I can hang out and chill and really get in the time of not sitting in front of my computer all the time. And then there's a period where I just work a lot. And that's just the nature of the business. Everyone has the like a lot of jobs have it this way right seasonal. But I'm excited, man, I love doing this. I love football season. I love the start of football season. I love draft season, which is what we're in right now. Just a lot of fun.

00:02:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, really excited to see whose career is going to end. You know, we had Josh Jacobs get ten carries in the Hall of Fame game was that two years ago and his career was over. So somebody's career literally.

00:02:54
Speaker 4: The best season of his career.

00:02:55
Speaker 1: Yeah literally, like like Josh Shakers has been just like a perennial RB two or whatever. I know someone's going to fact check me and be angry at this, but that year he was actually a league winning player, Like that was the year that he absolutely went ballistic.

00:03:08
Speaker 4: Of course, can't wait can't wait for all.

00:03:10
Speaker 1: The takes anyway, So I want to start out today's show. Davis Maddick sent a tweet out. I think it was from his chat one of his like YouTube streams or whatever, and Mattick sent a tweet out and it was a good thought experiment, I thought. And we started talking about it a little bit in the discord, others on Twitter, we're talking about it. So let me throw this out there to everyone, and then you and I can discuss this. And I think that you're really apt to answering this because of your poker background and such. But Davis tweeted the following idea, if you knew that a wide receiver or let's just say that underdog decided to throw this little wrinkle into one of their tournaments or something. And this is assuming a tournament environment. Davis didn't tweet that it was a tournament environment. But let's just assume it's a turn. Let's ass assume it's Best ball Mania right where week seventeen is where folks are getting paid out right, and it's not like the Sprint, where you know, weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen all kind of count the same. So Davis tweeted this out. If you knew that a wide receiver would score fifty points in Week seventeen, but scored zero points from week one to sixteen, so the whole season zero points. Week seventeen hits fifty points, where would you draft that receiver?

00:04:29
Speaker 3: Rich, I think you gotta take them first overall. And the part of me that struggles with this is that there are going to be so many teams that reach Week seventeen that also have this player. So ultimately, your percentage of winning the tournament doesn't go up as much as you would think on the front end. But that being said, it's going to be really, really hard to actually win the tournament if you don't have this magical box of fifty points presented to you in week seventeen.

00:04:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so, I agree, I responded to Davis, and I said, one oh one. That was just my response to be like dramatic about it, you know, just just have one like, don't.

00:05:07
Speaker 4: Have any explanation. Yeah, yeah, just just let let people react. Some people it was cool.

00:05:11
Speaker 1: Some people are like, JJ, you've officially become a best ball bro because you know, I'm thinking about a game theory wise and mathematically and stuff. But there was one response that got to me that I think is important to bring up because I'm sure a lot of people are thinking about this or at least in this way. But the person responded and said, you can't do that because you're giving up two hundred points to the rest of your league or what have you. Right, Like, there's obviously an opportunity cost involved, but when you when you think in that way, you're thinking about a median outcome. Right what we're trying to do here is think of the higher end outcome, because that's what we need in order to win these things. You got to get you know, top two out of your league. And then obviously, you know, the pools aren't as great, you know, in weeks fifteen and sixteen as it will be in week seventeen. But that's the point too, right, Like, if it's a smaller pool, then your team doesn't need as high as a ceiling to necessarily advance. And then if you have the largest pull in week seventeen, and that's when you're getting that fifty point outing from that wide receiver, that's a really big freaking deal.

00:06:07
Speaker 4: Just think about Devon a.

00:06:09
Speaker 1: Chan last year when he had his monster game, that fifty point outing that he had. I mean, if you had him in your season long league, you won that week period full stop. Like I would guarantee you that that was a ninety eight percent win rate if not more for a chan teams that week. And so I think that it's important to not think about the median outcome here, the median outcome if you don't have a first round pick, which is basically what this is saying, right like, the whole season, you're getting a zero out of your first rounder.

00:06:36
Speaker 4: We're gonna see injuries happen and busts happen.

00:06:39
Speaker 1: But I would imagine, I don't know, this is this is not scientific, and I could look at data and actually come with a more scientific way of approaching this. But let's imagine four of the of the top twelve don't end up really providing that much value. Maybe maybe two out of the top twelve, right, not counting this player, right, So, yes, you're taking his zero four in that scenario, but other teams are also going to struggle a little bit with their first round pick.

00:07:05
Speaker 4: That's that's the first thing to remember.

00:07:07
Speaker 1: The next thing to remember is, yes, you're foregoing that massive, massive opportunity cost. But those players, you know, like I said, Number one, may not perform all that well, but you also can make up for that by hitting on players later in your draft. It's not a guarantee that you can't win your league and you can't get to Week seventeen without that player.

00:07:25
Speaker 4: And to your point, I didn't even think about that.

00:07:27
Speaker 1: It's a really good point about ownership in that final you know that that final week. But I do wonder if, like what the degree of difficulty would be to get to week seventeen, right, which which would naturally lower that that percent roster number, that exposure number to that player in that week, because it's just difficult to get there, and if that would sort of offset that a little bit. But even still knowing that it's a more difficult journey does not make it not the not make that player the not the one on one, you know, even though it is more difficult to get there.

00:08:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, and at the end of the day, we've heard a lot of people talk about the value of getting to week seventeen is higher this year because the payouts are flatter, but still the difference between a min cash in Week seventeen in first place is one million, four hundred and ninety seven thousand dollars. So getting there is nice, but the whole object of playing in this tournament is to win first place. Yeah.

00:08:24
Speaker 1: The other thing, too, is that if you get fifty points from a wide receiver, you're guaranteeing yourself a pretty hefty payout, right, Like you're talking about men cash. Like you're not gonna min cash in week seventeen if you have a fifty point outing from your wide receiver, unless your whole team just does pathetically right at the end.

00:08:42
Speaker 3: Of the day, unless you're going to about to take the longest shower cry of your entire life after week seventeen.

00:08:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, right right. I mean, like so many things would have to go wrong for that to happen.

00:08:51
Speaker 1: But I do think it's a really good exercise because if you're playing in a season long league, the answer is no, you don't take this person one oh one. It's a totally different beast. I get the questions time of year. I'm going to answer it on a mail bag this week as a little spoiler alert.

00:09:04
Speaker 4: The mail bag will go out on Friday.

00:09:06
Speaker 1: But everyone's asking me about season long leagues and stacking in season long leagues, and I do think that, you know, the easy answer is just take a step back and look at the probability of you winning a game without factoring in who's even on your team. Right, you get a fifty to fifty matchup every week in your season long league that includes the playoffs, Right, you don't need variants necessarily in that environment. Sure, it's fine if you want to get a stack and you know that you know having that stack can increase your upside, but at the end of the day, it's not nearly as pertinent. So it's not as pertinent to get a wide receiver who does nothing through weeks one through sixteen and then gets, you know, a fifty burger in that championship, because it's just a different environment.

00:09:48
Speaker 3: I think a more interesting question would be if somehow you could select this player and then pick which week they get the fifty points, that is that would be the layer. And this is this goes back to what Karine was saying about when to pull that lever, and I think that's where you would get into some very interesting arguments as to whether or not you pull that lever in week sixteen to get into the dance or you chance it and hope that you get to week seventeen and then you pull a lever.

00:10:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's definitely an interesting discussion. I also think what is the point number? Like, what is that that number, that point score number that makes you not take him one oh one right, Like is it is it thirty points that you would then say, yeah, maybe like one oh eight, Like, I don't know, I don't know that answer. Someone needs to run a simulation, because I think that's the best way to kind of come up with an answer to this. But yeah, I mean, I do think that fifty points, like, fifty points is a lot of freaking points in fantasy football, and in a half PPR format that is a lot of freaking points.

00:10:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. All Right, you talked training camp to start off the show. We've got camps going and there's two players in particular who have just sunk like a rock with the opening of training camp and some negative reports. Two running backs, one Kendre Miller, the other Clyde Edwards a layer. What are your thoughts on these two backs in the process, have you changed where you're taking them? What's your temperature on these two guys?

00:11:17
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:11:17
Speaker 1: So I was never really super super high on Kendre Miller. This isn't you know, a hindsight take either. I just you can look at rankings and stuff. I had him clustered sort of in that area.

00:11:28
Speaker 4: But I don't know. I've I've felt.

00:11:30
Speaker 1: Strange about the New Orleans backfield all summer because everyone is just naturally just just just casually I should say saying no to Alvin Kamara, and they're just saying age.

00:11:42
Speaker 3: Curve, he's done, he's dusted, he's nothing, let's not draft him.

00:11:46
Speaker 1: And I get it, like there's a lot of data that suggested number one, he's not as good anymore, there's a lot of efficiency problems, YadA, YadA, YadA. But I mean, we're talking about a guy who was actually really really strong on a points per game basis last year, was seeing a ton of work through the air. And now I'm actually more bullish than most on the Saints' offense because they switch offensive coordinator, they have Clint Kubiak there. I think there's gonna be more points scored in that offense. And you know, usually that offense and that coaching tree is pretty favorable for running backs, and so I think that that's a plus for Kamara himself. But he's gonna get some of those cheap looks is what's important with Kamara. And so I actually have been drafting Kamara before this news. I was okay with him, you know, sort of in the the I guess the underdog dead zone range for running backs. Now, a lot of people will say, well, isn't this like not a dead zone back that you would want to target, because the dead zone is usually one where you only want to get like first and second year guys.

00:12:43
Speaker 4: Well, I did some research.

00:12:45
Speaker 1: It's in the draft guide, and part of that research suggests that if you can get a pass catcher in the dead zone, that's fine regardless of age. And you get that with Alvin Kamara. You get that a little bit with Aaron Jones. I'm hopefully this week going to have a newsletter blast out about the dead zone this year, because I do think it's a little bit different than previous years. But I know I'm going on a little bit of a tangent here, But what I'm basically saying is there's reasons to be okay enough with Alvin Kamara number one. So in turn, Kendre Miller who doesn't have the greatest year two profile in my model, in the year two model, who wasn't that much of a pass catcher coming out of school, you know, who was on the younger side.

00:13:23
Speaker 4: I think that was sort of the.

00:13:25
Speaker 1: Belief of Or would give you some hope and belief that he could become something more as a pass catcher is Oh, yeah, he's only you know, I think last year's class he was the second youngest back in the class behind only. Is he a Banakanda and so so Jets fans, I guess maybe close your ears because you guys keep keep drafting day three running back. But yeah, like like Miller had the potential and I thought that he was a solid back, but to me, there was a lot of variance and ambiguity. Now, the reason that this is all happening is because he can't stay on the field.

00:13:58
Speaker 4: He hasn't been healthy.

00:14:00
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen comes out and says and openly calls him out and says, you're not gonna basically says, you're not gonna make the team if you can't stay healthy, right, which we don't see very frequently from because he was a day two guy last year. Going to Or coming from a head coach for a second year player who you're hoping takes on a bigger role this year. And let's not forget Jamal Williams is there too. Like that's a big, big problem for Kendre Miller. So I think before this news hit, I was at about five percent exposure because I could understand the upside case, but I just don't really, like, I understand his ADP's dropping And if he gets to like the seventeenth or eighteenth, I'm not gonna fault anyone. I'm like, I might even get him at that point. But I think there's reason to believe that this is a player that we shouldn't be heavily investing in right now. And you know, going to the Clyde Edwards a layer thing, He's been an eighteenth round pick all offseason, right And the argument was, you know, last year when Pacheco was out, we saw c Eh actually project to be like a top twelve running back in some weeks and like, look decent, you know, was seeing volume all that stuff. This generic Prince stuff to me is not invalid. Like I think that we're probably gonna see, you know, if Isaiah Pachecko were to go down, I think that we probably would see more prints than what we've seen.

00:15:20
Speaker 4: What we saw last year for instance.

00:15:22
Speaker 1: The only thing I'll throw out there is Prince was not a good prospect, Like he was not a very strong prospect, and he is a size speed freak, and those kinds of players will often look better during the training camp period. Then they necessarily look, you know, once they find the field and they can start to start to contribute, you know, in like a real football game. The difference between like him and Pacheco because Pachecko was that guy too as a prospect. The main difference Pachecko had more of a backbone as receiver, you know, as a runner behind arguably the worst offensive line in college football. Those were part of the reasons why I liked Pacheco as a prospect, and I didn't necess really love de Eric Prince. But look, it's the Chiefs. If you get a size speed freak, Andy Reid is the one coach I trust to be able to utilize that player properly, and so I think he's fine as more of like a dynasty stash season long dart do I think that Prince is going to become a league winner in the eighteenth round.

00:16:22
Speaker 4: Probably not.

00:16:23
Speaker 1: Do I think that if I were to choose between Prince and Cech right now, would I choose Ceh. I think I could go either way, because I do think Prince probably does present a little bit more upside than Cech does right now, just because of that size speed profile.

00:16:37
Speaker 3: This is a great jumping off point into one of your focuses this week, which is mixing it up in rounds seventeen and eighteen. And you said it just there. You know, you can go either way on Ch or Prince, and you're allowing some of these camp notes to go into your process in those later rounds. So how are you attacking those later rounds so far?

00:16:55
Speaker 4: Or right now?

00:16:55
Speaker 3: I should say, in best Ball?

00:16:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean maybe this is controversial. Maybe people think that you shouldn't pay attention to those camp notes and stuff, but you know, if there is hype surrounding a player, I'm okay with throwing a darter or two at that player.

00:17:08
Speaker 4: For instance, Colby Parkinson.

00:17:11
Speaker 1: Right now is playing as the tight end one for the Rams, right I've gotten him naturally in Stafford stacks and in ramstacks, you know they have Davis Allen there too, who could get some work in that offense. But if Parkinson's the tight end one, you know, without Tyler Higbee, then I think that there's some intrigue there in a landscape where we don't have tight ends that really stand out in the last rounds. I mean, I talked about Mike Kasicki last week, but drafting him really really consistently pretty much all off season, and we keep seeing, you know, a steady drum beat with Kasiki, and that's making me feel even more confident in drafting him. I don't think there's any problem with that when we're talking about a pick in the seventeen and eighteenth round that's more than likely not going to contribute that much to our lineup to begin with. So if there are positive notes, and if those notes have some semblance, like I, I haven't gotten into a draft where I've had to make this choice yet, but the reports about Rico Dowdle maybe not being the locked in RB two in that backfield and them liking Royce Freeman a little bit, you know, I don't think that's nothing.

00:18:15
Speaker 4: Now.

00:18:15
Speaker 1: Am I going to go out and get like ten percent exposure Royce Freeman? Probably not? Will I maybe throw a darter to it, Royce Freeman. Sure in the eighteenth round. If I feel really good about what went on, we are round one to seventeen. Sure, I think there's some validity to doing something like that.

00:18:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Kolbe Parkinson thing, this is a constant drum beat. I mean, they did hand this dude, you know, three for twenty two and a half in the off season, and ten of it was guaranteed, so they projected that they have interest in this player. So the drum beat is only continuing with him getting involved in training camp. Keeping on the running back topic, you put this in your focuses. I did a live draft this morning, and it's so funny because I ended up going this way just because it's the way the board fell. But running back heavy and adjusting to a smaller room, going perhaps with four. I mean, I know we talked about going super high variants with three on a previous show, but four seems to be the comfort zone. But in some of these drafts where we have more casual people reaching for running back, I've actually found in the one I did this morning specifically, that running back values fell to me in the early rounds and I just ended up going with this heavy approach. So talk about what you've been doing.

00:19:27
Speaker 2: JJ.

00:19:28
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that's the thing is that sometimes you just find yourself in drafts where people get running backs that you don't expect them to get in the earliest rounds, or like maybe Kyen Williams goes in the late second or something like that, and that forces a Derrick Henry to go to the into the fourth or something like that because other teams just aren't are are reacting you know, a certain way to what that environment is doing, or you know, someone's taking a Pachecko over Derrick Henry or something like that, so Henry then falls. So in those environments, I do end up getting the falling value. And and I'd say this, so I've had some four running back teams.

00:20:03
Speaker 4: I actually did.

00:20:03
Speaker 1: A live stream on the YouTube channel I think last week where I had a four running back team that a lot of people ended up liking. We always at the end of every draft, we like rate the team because I'd name all of my best Balmania teams something and then I put a rating at the end, so I can kind of look back and see how good we are at sort of evaluating these teams in the moment. And so we had a four running back team last week and a lot of people are like giving it nines and you know, eight and nine out of ten, and I, you know, I found that it is valuable and viable. I should say, because if you think about the the like like a four running back build, you know this, this like fairly fragile running back build was not uncommon in previous iterations of Best Balmania right, where people will get three in the first like three rounds or something like that. Well, all of these running backs are still the same. They're still running backs, they're still higher volume, they're good to see a decent chunk of their backfield running backs.

00:21:02
Speaker 4: It's just they're being shifted downwards in ADP.

00:21:05
Speaker 1: And so I don't think that necessarily we need to say, you know, this is a five.

00:21:10
Speaker 4: Running back team no matter what.

00:21:11
Speaker 1: At a minimum, when a player like Chase Brown, let's say, who could be your RB four, you know he might have been going in the seventh round historically, where we would have been okay if that was our RB four. Because you're getting four running backs in the first seven rounds. It's just a matter of you and your perception of draft capital and the amount of capital that you're spending on a position and that equating to actual production and value, if that makes sense. Right, Like in the past, we'd say four running backs through seven rounds you can be or six rounds you can.

00:21:43
Speaker 4: Be done at running back.

00:21:44
Speaker 1: Well, now those running backs are going in round ten, So why can't we be done with running back if we have four through ten? Right, It's just a different environment, a different drafting environment.

00:21:53
Speaker 4: So there are teams. Let's say I get like Bresee.

00:21:56
Speaker 1: Hall and then Isaiah Pacheco, and then you know, this is obviously not core correlated or anything, but then like Taj Spears and Chase Brown, I'm okay with those four. Like I hypothetically I could be okay with is going with those four running backs and hoping that the first two hit and then I have a good rotation or a potential for the other two to hit with contingent upside. I think that that's a sound enough logical strategy.

00:22:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this whole notion of draft like, you're right when you invest that much capital in running backs, if you're drafting like you're right, those guys are going to have a very smooth curve of output on a weekly basis, Whereas at the receiver position, even if you draft like you're right, you're just gonna have these natural spike weeks. Yeah, which is why it makes more sense to have a deeper receiver room and have these elite running backs that you hope stay healthy and hope have the output that you drafted the map. They're smooth throughout the season at of elevated level, and then you have a ton of receivers that you can capit on those spikes weeks throughout the season and then hopefully into the playoff. Yeah.

00:23:04
Speaker 1: I also just want to say I'm not doing this in every draft, like I there for sure. Yeah, there are bills like I come with you too. I'm going with a two seven seven two build. You know, I'll get seven running backs and some drafts depending on how I'm spending. I'm just saying that, don't close the door on a four running back build, because I do think it's viable.

00:23:21
Speaker 4: Yeah, things just happen.

00:23:23
Speaker 3: You know, value is going to fall to you, and you're just gonna have these inflection points where you're like, well, I guess I'm going down this path right in this draft, right, so and you just go from there. Let's talk Houston Texans. You talked about the receiver room on perspectives, but there is a guy at the head of the offense that's running the show, who just keeps falling in drafts. C J. Stroud is down twenty picks from where we started this process a couple of months ago, and you find yourself getting the second year ma'am.

00:23:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, I think that he's now properly valued at times, right, I don't think that you should force it in the sixth round if you're doing, you know, a decent number of drafts, if you're doing like forty fifty plus drafts, right, like obviously I've done four hundred and fifty, So I don't I'm just going to try to grab the falling value. But I want to think from your perspective, not necessarily you rich, but anyone else who is maybe doing, like you know, twenty thirty forty fifty drafts, you can still play this game as well. Right in that game being CJ. Stroud as a seventh round pick when you have one of his pieces. Now if you go with a naked Stroud and you get Stroud without one of his big three wide receivers.

00:24:35
Speaker 4: I don't think it's the smartest strategy.

00:24:37
Speaker 1: It's kind of goes back to what we talked to when I talked to Karine about the first episode of this of this or I guess second episode of this podcast, where you know, I asked him if there's a falling value and he's like, yeah, you just got to pass on it, because what is that player going to really do for you in this tournament environment in that week seventeen when he's not stacked, you know, when you don't have that correlation and he's not wrong, right, Sure, that player might help you get there, but at the end of the day, you want as many outs in that week seventeen as you possibly can.

00:25:04
Speaker 4: And so if you have CJ.

00:25:05
Speaker 1: Stroud with Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz and even Dave Klugi who was on Perspectives last week, he admitted like, this isn't what I like to do, and I didn't feel comfortable doing it, and he didn't even he wasn't even able to get Dalton Schultz on that team because someone randomly got Dalton Schultz like a round before ADP. Now, I do find though that with every fantasy analyst and their mothers saying that CJ. Stroud is an over valued asset and redraft. You know, he's naturally fallen. And then on top of that, you get a group of people who generally know that stacking is advantageous. And if you get one of the Texans wide receivers, if you get two of them, like I've started, I've started getting a lot of like Nico Digs or Nico Dell or sometimes at the at the three four turn, if you're lucky, you can get like the the Digs Dell or something like that. If I do have a pairing, I will force the issue with c J. Stroud and I will get him in the mid to late seventh round. And it is not an uncommon occurrence if you're able to bowl and force the force the issue a little bit with him.

00:26:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean all three of those receivers as you discussed last week, it's almost like it's almost like basketball. I feel like they all have defined roles on this team and they can all eat on a given week. So if you can stack them with cig Croud, I think that's that's more than reasonable. I think that people that try to sell themselves on which Texans receiver is going to win, might be selling themselves up up the river. Whereas again, and we keep reiterating this, if you let the value fall to us, if one of those three falls past ADP, then I think you just scoop it and then maybe look to I this stack with CJ. Stroud. You mentioned Chase Brown. This is a player that you've been vocal about on discord, on Twitter. This is a guy it seems like you're planting your flag in him in that Bengals backfield.

00:26:50
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:26:50
Speaker 1: The interesting thing is that at the beginning of the off season, if anyone listens to the Late Round podcast, I was kind of anti Chase Brown.

00:26:56
Speaker 4: Like I thought that he was kind of a dynasty.

00:26:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I thought that he was a selling dynasty because I had this idea, like I thought that his ADP was going to rise more than it did. I just had a wrong read on the market, right, And then on top of that, I started researching more because in my year two model, he doesn't look great because it wasn't like he did that much in year one and he wasn't you know, he's a Day three pick.

00:27:17
Speaker 4: Now if you go back and read the prospect guy.

00:27:19
Speaker 1: Last year, I listened to him as a target, like someone that you should get in your rookie drafts. So I've been on this roller coaster with Chase Brown. Where I liked him as a prospect, I thought that he was a good value in rookie drafts, and then at the beginning of this offseason, I thought, yeah, maybe he's a sell because chances are this Day three pick is not gonna have the environment that we want and that we think he's gonna see. But his ADP didn't really shift in the dynasty world. And then on top of that, I started doing more redraft research and found that when when looking at year two scores and looking at my prospect scores, they don't matter that much with middle round running backs. What matters more is that guy is just in the middle rounds. To begin with, the market is telling you that things are looking pretty favorable for him. And then on top of that, he's in an ambiguous backfield, which is what we should always be targeting, where the backfield and his backfield mate is going in the middle rounds, and that like RB three RB four area with him. And then on top of that, he's a second year running back and second year guys throw away. Every all context, second year running backs do perform above expectation, generally speaking in that area of the draft. So I'm gonna change my opinion on players whenever I get new information and when I research more and learn more. Right, I'm not gonna have takelock. That's stupid. I want you guys to win. And so in March I think it was I change my tune completely on Chase Brown, and you know, maybe send some apologies out there if someone sold him in Dynasty. I don't think he's gonna be like, you know, like an RB one or anything like. I don't even think he's gonna go the path of like Isaiah Pacheco. But if you read camp reports and listen to what people who follow the Bengals are saying, they are saying that this is a legit one two split between him and Zach Moss, where it wouldn't surprise them if Chase Brown ends up emerging as the one A in that backfield. And to me, he has the pass catching upside more so than Moss, which is another thing that we look for in these middle rounds. And you know, anyone who says that he can't handle a big workload. Go look at his college resume and tell me that he can't handle a big workload like that's that's a completely fabricated fact like that, that's not true at all. He can absolutely handle a big workload. Do I think that he's gonna be the goal line guy? Not necessarily, not with Zach Moss there, But again, this is a situation where he's a big play player. We saw it last year. He's got a lot of burst. That's good for best ball obviously. And what I've been saying to the discord and what I've been saying on you know, wherever I go. You know I've been talking about on another podcast and stuff is I just see the and we've already seen it, the ADP rising with Chase Brown because there's going to be a lot of hype surrounding him.

00:29:56
Speaker 4: So I'm trying to get as much as I possibly can. Right I was already high on Brown.

00:30:00
Speaker 1: I had fifteen percent exposure before all this started, So I'm already doubling up the market almost, but I'm trying to get up to the closer to that twenty percent mark, you know, hopefully without his ADP rising too too much.

00:30:13
Speaker 3: Last player, a Jets legend, a short king, a guy who I think is one of the few players who will merge the tape grinders and the stats bros.

00:30:24
Speaker 4: It's Greg Dorch. This dude just does it. Yeah, he's a fun player.

00:30:28
Speaker 1: He was a really really good prospect in terms of production, which is what I always love to look at.

00:30:34
Speaker 4: But you know, he's a smaller guy.

00:30:35
Speaker 1: You never know how teams are going to want to use that and translate and how that will translate, like we saw it on that exact same team with Rondell Moore, right, Well, Dorsch consistently would outperform Rondell Moore whenever given the opportunity. He just wasn't always given the opportunity. Now, someone might look at like his yards per rou run, it's not very strong. Part of that has to do with the fact that he has a he's had a pretty low average at the target throughout his career, and that's going to naturally coincide with not gaining a ton of yards. You know, every target and every catch, right, but when he's on the field, he gets targeted at a decent clip. His targets per roule run is around like the eighteen percent mark, which is nothing. You know, it's not like amazing, but it's not terrible. And if you look at this team in this environment. Now I've been drafting Doors a lot in stacks in Murray stacks in Rams Cardinals week seventeen stack game stacks. But I think that you can go with him as a standalone get some production a la Khalif Raymond in the eighteenth round because I think if you look at this the personnel in this offense, the most likely outcome is you get Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson on the perimeter. And Michael Wilson I also have been higher on, you know, versus the market all offseason two. But you get those two guys in the perimeter, Greg Dortsch naturally a great slock guy, Trey McBride at tight end. That's that's your eleven personnel package. Like that makes a lot of sense, you know, just intuitively based on their skill sets. And it doesn't hurt that every day it seems like Kyler he's throwing a touchdown to Greg Dortsch in practice, Like you see that come across your timeline. So I just want to shout out Dorts that I think I'm at like twelve percent or so Dorts right now. You know, I don't want to be like so so heavily exposed to a player like that, who I don't think has like a massive, massive ceiling. But there are enough teams where you know, you might won an eight wide receiver build, even a nine wide receiver build, and you're just like, I need production, I need I need something from a player, and that's what it's.

00:32:26
Speaker 4: It's sort of like the Jalil McLoughlin of wide receivers.

00:32:29
Speaker 1: Like I don't think McLoughlin has top twelve upside per se, but I do think that he's gonna give you some production. And sometimes that's all you need to get, maybe a handful of usable weeks. Maybe those usable weeks hit at the right time. That's totally fine. I feel that way about Greg Dortsch.

00:32:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, like when you're in the eighteenth round and you're looking at some of these guys like someone who I just and again, I'm not playing a ton of volume. I just like I'm not clicking Jalen Tolbert's name.

00:32:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's right, unless you're in a stat or something like that. Yeah, that's right.

00:32:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, unless unless you've you've got that that Dallas Philly stacked, or you already have Dak and just need another piece of that offense. But an unstacked Dorch is fine because we've seen this guy eat in far worse offenses, right with Kyler Murray not even on the field. So yeah, he's he's a talented player, and I'll always have my heart because he was.

00:33:19
Speaker 4: On Gang Green.

00:33:20
Speaker 1: He was a he was a fun prospect man, really fun prospect. Anyway, let's get to our guests. So I interviewed Sam Sherman. He's an NFL writer and podcaster at Established a Run. You know, I've talked to a lot of ETR guys on this show. I love the folks over there. There might be another one coming soon. Not necessarily becoming a bestball broke, but on the Late Round podcast. He also hosts adp Chasing, another show with a lot of friends that you guy should check out. But Sam and I we talked about sifting through these camp reports game stacking, how strategy changes from bigger tournaments to smaller ones. It's a talking point that folks have wanted me to talk about and interview people about. So we talked about that a little bit and a ton more. You guys will definitely enjoy it. Here is my interview with Sam Sherman. This episode is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. If you haven't played over at Underdog yet, now's the perfect time. There are tons of different best ball leagues that you can join, and there's definitely a league out there that fits what you're looking for and you can use all the things that I've talked about with guests on becoming a.

00:34:19
Speaker 4: Best ball bro to crush those drafts. But like I said, now's the right time.

00:34:24
Speaker 1: To join up because if you go and you sign up and use promo code Late Round, you not only get a nice deposit offered, but you also get a free Late Round Draft guide that's a twenty five dollars guide email to your inbox after're signing up.

00:34:36
Speaker 4: For absolutely free.

00:34:38
Speaker 1: So head to Underdog Fantasy dot com, sign up using promo code late Round, and make it a positive. I can confirm it's a really, really fun platform to play on. Now back to the show, So, Sam, we're seeing camp reports fly like crazy this time of year, you know, with the takes and you know what we're seeing guys, perform, you know, against defenders that don't even exist, aren't even there. If they just catch a ball, you know, in the middle of the field without a defender close by, it's a big deal. But but that being said, what are the things that you were sort of looking for that will actually impact the way that you draft.

00:35:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny you mentioned this because maybe I'll stry with an example of things that aren't impacting the way I'll draft. One example that I saw recently, I think there was a tweet going around I forget who it was, with some Denver beat report that was like, Wow, play of the day Audrig Estimate truck sticked defender in the secondary. And you see that tweet and you're like, wow, that sounds pretty cool. And then you actually see the highlight clip and I don't even think they have like their full pads on. Like the defender is clearly not trying to tackle Estimate and he just like leans puts his head into him and anyways, so, like you, the point being with that is you have to be really careful about those type of reports of like player X made this awesome player. Even the highlight videos that look cool, those those are fun to watch, sure, but I'm less focused on that. I think the main thing that I'm looking for right now, you know, in training camp before preseason starts is depth chart news. So there's a lot of good sources on this. I find the athletic beat writers are pretty good. But just getting the details on what wide receivers are playing with the ones, what wide receivers are playing with the twos. You know, that goes to running back and tight end as well. Just really getting the concrete information on, yeah, who's playing with the starters, and less so beat writers opinions on how the players are looking in practice.

00:36:33
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think it's really key.

00:36:34
Speaker 1: I mean it's really easy to get enamored when you see, you know, a guy make a circus catch or something like that, but we know that number one, it's not even like a sustainable play. But number two, it's like we do all of this research throughout the off seat to say this guy is good, this guy isn't good. And you know, obviously they're all goods they're playing in the NFL, but you know, versus the way they're where they're being drafted and stuff that we can't let one big play or like one crazy thing you know in camp sway our our talent evaluations that dramatically, you know, I think it's it's important, and like you said, really good call out to just look at depth charts, look at which running backs are running with the ones, all that kind of stuff, and let it sort of guide you, you know, in how you're you know, approaching Best Ball drafts, a question that I asked last week, but I think another perspective could really help. Are you attacking drafts any differently this time of year? So obviously like Best Ball drafts or sorry, Best Ball Mania drafts you know will start in May. Uh, what we'll see sort of these like fluctuations in ADP and certain times to attack you know, certain players. But then you get in like later July and in August, you get more casual players entering. And again I'll say this for the millionth time, being a casual player, there is nothing wrong with you. Is actually less things wrong with you than people who are you know, max entering BBM and drafting in May. So don't take that as an insult. It's the opposite of an insult. But you know, a more casual drafter is going to be entering the picture in late July into August.

00:38:01
Speaker 4: Does that change the way that you approach your drafts.

00:38:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a couple things that I keep in mind, and I guess off the top, I'd say it doesn't like radically change my approach, but a couple of small things.

00:38:12
Speaker 5: I think. Number one, what we generally see as more.

00:38:16
Speaker 2: Casual drafters enter Best Ball Mania drafts in August, we see running back prices move up, and that's primarily because in your casual leagues running backs go earlier. You know, drafters who aren't used to Best Ball We'll see you know, Alvin Kamara going in the seventh round and underdog and be like, what the hell is going on? He was at the RB three last year. I'm taking him in the fifth, right, So that sort of starts to happen. And because of that, like kind of counterintuitively, I am much more interested in sort of hero RB or even maybe two RB out of the gate starts in August because it's much easier to build up the wide receiver depth later as sort of the dead zone running backs start going earlier. So yeah, for now I'm kind of been drafting at ADP you know, in the first round I'm not reaching to take Bresse or Bijon over.

00:39:09
Speaker 5: The Justin Jefferson a mon rock group of wide receivers.

00:39:11
Speaker 2: But I think actually, as August starts, I might pivot and maybe Adp even catches up to me here, so it won't even be a reach. But I think I'm gonna pivot to just taking those elite, workhorse upside running backs a little bit higher in the first round, knowing that the wide receivers that I like, you know, the Roma Duneza, the Keon Coleman, like some of those breakout profiles that are really priced up. Now, those wide receivers will start to go later, and I can kind of balance my roster out that way, even with taking running backs a little bit earlier.

00:39:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really good point because if the dead zone guys, let's say, the Remandre the zamir Whites of the world, if they start to go a half round earlier, or even a round earlier, that makes those early round running backs even better picks because the gap in which you're you know, the difference in where you're getting those players shrinks and so they come a little bit more valuable. It's similar when folks go into like a tight end premium format and like a higher stakes league or something, and they start to draft tight ends earlier. Well, not only are you getting the tight ends earlier because they're scoring more points, but the baseline tight ends are also going.

00:40:14
Speaker 4: A lot earlier.

00:40:14
Speaker 1: You know, you're gonna see David and Joku in like the fifth round or something, whereas obviously he'd be like a tenth round guy in a normal league. And so that changes sort of the way that you need to approach that position at the top, because that shrinks the opportunity costs. It makes it more costly to not draft that player early on.

00:40:33
Speaker 4: So I think it's a really really good call out.

00:40:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I was just gonna add to that, like if to kind of get a sense if you're a drafter who you know is a wide receiver, heavy drafter, an underdog right now, to kind of give yourself a feel of what things might look like in August, Like go draft on a platform like FFPC right now, like looking at running back first wide receivers, you're gonna be absolutely disgusted by the running back prices on the website and you'll find it's like the least painful time to take a running back in the first round, right, because you're taking Brese Hall over a Manra like that probably feels fine to you. You're really not gonna like taking Rashaun White over Tank Dell or Alvin Kamara over DJ Moore or whatever. You know. I might be be mixing up examples a little bit, but that's the type of decision you'll have in those middle rounds.

00:41:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great point.

00:41:20
Speaker 1: I mean there's there's only there's only three running backs seemingly that we feel like amazing about that will get you know, an unbelievable workload, like league winning workload, and clearly some guys are gonna surprise and step in and maybe we see insane efficiency from a Jamier Gibbs or Devon a Chen and they end up, you know, being like top three running backs all that kind of stuff. But again, like there are three running backs, very clearly, three running backs that from a projection standpoint, we feel great about potentially becoming the RB one this year.

00:41:48
Speaker 4: So if you.

00:41:49
Speaker 1: Draft one of them, I don't think you're gonna walk away and be like, man, why did I get Breze Hall. It's like, no, let's Breeze Hall. We know that that you can dominate fantasy football. So the other thing that people have asked me about a lot is how to sort of switch your brain from going from a large scale tournament like a Best Ball Mania, where you know there's these playoff weeks and you know, week seventeen you have this field of what five hundred and sixty ish teams that you're going to have to try to beat, and going from that sort of vibe and that sort of tournament to let's say just a twelve team league where they're just playing in a regular best ball league against eleven other people. They're going to try to grind it out. It's almost like a cash game style way of thinking. Are you in those formats approaching things differently? Are you still stacking in a regular twelve team league? I mean, you might not even be playing in twelve team leagues, but hypothetically if you were, how would you be changing your strategy?

00:42:45
Speaker 5: Yeah?

00:42:45
Speaker 2: I thought about this because it's a good question, and honestly not something I think about a lot because I don't I honestly don't play in a lot of those twelve team non tournament leagues. But I do think there are a couple things that you can do. I think, first off, I would emphasize that I think regular.

00:43:02
Speaker 5: Team stacks are still really important.

00:43:04
Speaker 2: Now obviously the game stack element, and by game stack, I mean like taking the opposing teams players in week fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen that is obviously pointless assuming your leagues don't have playoffs and they're sort of like total points scored through through seventeen weeks, right, But I think regular team stacks are still really important for the same reason that they are in advancing out of your leagues in a normal sort of tournament style league. Like how I kind of think about it and how I sort of build intuition around stacking is like I want to increase my odds of finishing in first and second in my league and also counterintuitively like increase my odds of finishing eleventh and twelfth. Right, Like if I take too you know, Jalen Model and Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins completely get blown up this year, say two, it gets hurt. You know, Mike White, whoever their backup quarterback is now is terrible. Like I'm fine with that team tanking because in the rest of my portfolio, I don't have like one off TA bets without the wide receivers or even that often like one off you know, Jalen Waddle without any other Miami pieces. Like that concentration element both helps your teams finish in first and second, but also you know, I'm fine with finishing eleventh and twelfth in my league right, Like there's no point in being in.

00:44:26
Speaker 5: The middle and how these best ball playouts work.

00:44:28
Speaker 2: So that's the intuition for me around stacking that I think it's just as important in these type of leagues, but maybe on the extreme like extreme side of things, like in the very late rounds, I'm a little bit less focused on stacking in one of these regular twelve team leagues, like maybe going back to the Dolphins example, if I'm trying to win a huge best ball tournament or there's a thousand people in the finals and I have two, I'm maybe considering tacking on like Malik Washington or Odell sort of a lower owned eighteenth round pick, even above players in that range that I might think are better in a vacuum. Say, I don't know, Jalen McMillan or someone like that, who I think projects much better than those two guys in a vacuum, but I just am leaning in all the way to the correlation I think in those very later rounds is where in the regular twelve team leagues I'd be tie breaking more towards just like projected points and not thinking about that level of correlation to too much.

00:45:27
Speaker 5: At the very end.

00:45:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, it makes sense.

00:45:29
Speaker 1: I also think with stacking, people think only in terms of like weekly upside and what that can do. But there's the season long upside element, which is what you're sort of talking about in alluding to where you know, if Tua goes down, sure, yeah, I mean that Miami stack, all of a sudden, you're screwed and it's not going to look as good. But if Tua does well, then he's elevating the entire offense, which means all of those guys you draft. Have you got Tyreek and Waddle, Let's say both of them could end up being better than ADP and out playing their ADP and being great bets just simply based on the fact that the offense outperformed itself because Tua played well, and so you're getting that season long upside. It's not just like the oh I'm stacking them and I have the correlation in that given week. So if Tua throws for four touchdowns, chances are my team's going to really blow up for that week.

00:46:15
Speaker 4: Yes, that's true. But what's also.

00:46:17
Speaker 1: True is that season long element, which I still think is viable in the twelve team leagues. They like you're saying, you know, where you still want to have guys who outperform ADP. In a way to get guys who outperform ADP is getting guys in the same offense because if that offense does well, then all of them are likely to do a little bit.

00:46:35
Speaker 2: Better exactly, And I think like building on that, like the quarterback running back correlation, is something I'm probably a little bit more interested in in the self contained twelve man leagues because again, to that weekly upside point, you know, maybe Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in a given week, They're weekly upside is maybe not super correlated, especially if we expect, you know, Philly not to throw to the running backs much. But over the season, if the philledl offense just smashes under Kellen Moore, like all the prestat motion stuff he's bringing at the offense, that just makes the Philadelphia Eagles a lot better. Then both Barkley and Hurts are probably going to have great years, right, so that side of it, And you could even go to running back wide receiver correlation, same thing, like I don't know, Jon and Drake London in a given week, maybe not correlated, but over the season, if Kirk Cousins Achilles is fine, that's good for both of them, et cetera. So I think things like that, I'm fine leaning more into in the individual twelve man leagues.

00:47:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, Now, speaking of stacking in tournament style formats, especially Best ball Mania, where we know Week seventeen is the most important. We know that it's the largest field just in terms of the amount of cop like the number of teams that you're competing against. Are you while you're stacking and you're looking at game stacks? How important is game stacking to you in those tournament style formats? But then also, are you worried about week fifteen and sixteen to get to Week seventeen in the first place, or have you while you're drafting in Best Ball Mania? Have you just focused on that Week seventeen and that matchup.

00:48:05
Speaker 5: It's a good question.

00:48:06
Speaker 2: So I think Like, honestly, if I was drafting while putting my best foot forward, trying to squeeze the most expected value out of all my teams, I would actually be pretty equally focused on weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. Honestly, like I do a lot of my drafts while I'm like on the treadmill or taking a walk. I only have so much like mental capacity, so maybe I don't do the best job of that. But yeah, to explain why I think you should be focused on week fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen, i'd really encourage everyone. And I'm sure you've probably brought this up before, but Mike Leoni've established Iron wrote a great article, the Best Ball Manifesto, which is up on the website, and he did a lot of research that showed the more quarterbacks you have game stacked, the better your odds in any of the three playoff weeks weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen, And game stacking kind of equally increases your odds of winning each of those weeks for each week. So that's to say that, like, game stacking isn't more powerful in week seventeen than it is in weeks fifteen, and sixteen, and also what he showed, and this is sort of getting a little bit in the weeds, but basically, like the logic that weeks of seventeen is all that matters is like a little bit flawed.

00:49:31
Speaker 5: Like I agree with the premise of focusing on late season production.

00:49:36
Speaker 2: But increasing your odds of winning week fifteen by two x the baseline rate, that also increases your odds of winning week seventeen by two x the baseline rate because you're twice as likely to get there, right, So I think sometimes people kind of lop off that part of the probability tree and don't focus on, like, increasing your odds of winning those earlier weeks does improve your odds of winning week seventeen. So yeah, with the Daity show there, I'm pretty focused on all three of those playoff weeks.

00:50:07
Speaker 4: In terms of game stacking, Yeah, I've said it before too.

00:50:10
Speaker 1: What I've noticed through drafting and going on this Best ball Bro journey has been, as you're team stacking, you just kind of naturally game stack and you don't realize that you're naturally game stacking at times, you know, because there are there are only so many iterations from a matchup standpoint that you can really you know that you can have with thirty two teams. Then you know there are some like clusters like the Seattle what is it, Seattle, Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago cluster where like they're all just like playing each other, you know, during that during that group that that week fifteen to seventeen grouping. And so I do think that that's another thing to always keep in mind, is that like like you're probably gonna naturally game stack a little bit. Even in week seventeen. You might realize, oh wow, I have a little mini game stack here, and I didn't even like think about it while I was drafting because I was so focused on this other stack that was kind of going on there.

00:50:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, and yeah, another thing i'd that is like I think, like even if stacking did nothing, which is not true, but let's say that stacking didn't help you at all, Like from stacking alone, I find that like the thought process around stacking helps me naturally diversify. Like say I take Brandon Nyuk in round two, and then I'm considering a wide receiver.

00:51:25
Speaker 5: You know, around the seventh round.

00:51:26
Speaker 2: Maybe in my head, I'm like, Okay, I like Curtis Samuel and Christian Watson a lot more than Jamison Williams this year, which which is true in a vacuum, I like them a lot more. But just thinking about that game stacked tiebreaker, I'm like, I don't really like Jamison Williams this year, but you know he's correlated with Brandon Nyuk. I know that benefits me. I'm going to tie break to Jamison. So I do think diversification in best ball is important if you're building out a huge portfolio, and just stacking kind of helps you, like naturally do that in a way that's hard to do if you're just making every decision on which player do I like best?

00:52:00
Speaker 5: In a vacuum.

00:52:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, Now, when you're stacking with your quarterback, how many pass catchers.

00:52:05
Speaker 4: Are you typically taking?

00:52:06
Speaker 1: Does it differ too based on the type of quarterback that you're drafting.

00:52:12
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it does differ.

00:52:16
Speaker 2: I would say the target is like two to four teammates with a quarterback. But I do think there's a couple things to think about there, maybe maybe three things to think about when you're thinking about how many quarterback or how many pass catchers are stacked with a quarterback. One is just how expensive are the pass catchers? Say you have Jordan Love, Like, I'm fine with even like four, maybe even five packers with Jordan Love. If you start with like Romeo Dubs, then tack on Dantavian Wis, Luke Musgrave, Marshawn Lloyd, right like, if you build out four or five there, they're all cheap enough where I don't think you're allocating too much capital of them. And then another thing I would think about is what percentage of the quarterbacks fantasy scoring comes from rushing. I think the more a quarterbacks production comes from rushing, you can worry about stacking them less. So Anthony Richardson, for example, I think you're totally fine even in a large bestball tournament going with naked Anthony Richardson into the finals, Like he can get there based on running for seventy yards and three touchdowns or something, right, and none of his pass catchers got there, whereas someone like to CJ.

00:53:32
Speaker 5: Stroud, I think if they get.

00:53:34
Speaker 2: There in terms of hitting their ceiling, they're way more likely to bring along the pass catchers. And then finally, yeah, just thinking about concentration of the target tree. If you know it's an offense like Miami that really just runs through Jalen Waddell and Tyreek Hill. I think I'm less focused, Like I wouldn't want to do a to a stack with like three of those peripheral pieces that I know are just such low odds to really matter.

00:53:57
Speaker 1: And then yeah, yeah, makes a lot of same. It's the example of the mobile quarterback. The one of the things that I've been doing is if I get like a Drake London Kyle Pitts stack of some sort, or even just one of those guys or like Bijon and Pits or something, I'll often just get a naked Jayden Daniels and pair that for the week seventeen correlation and then you know, maybe Johan Dotson if he's there or whatever, or like Luke McCaffrey, just to get a piece. But I'm not necessarily like forcing the issue as much because, like you said, like Anthony Richardson, I know that's not you know, Jayden Daniels is not Anthony Richardson, but it's the same idea, the same thesis of like, if you know if that player is gonna perform, well, chances are like the reason we're drafting him is because of the rushing it's not because of what they can necessarily do with their arm. And so you can get a nice interesting, you know, week seventeen game stack by getting a player who that's not even super super stacked, but you have you know, his opponent sitting right there.

00:54:56
Speaker 5: That makes a lot of sense and kind of tangential to that. But another thing I was thinking.

00:55:00
Speaker 2: About It maybe isn't directly related to your question, but I do think there and this doesn't really get discus discussed much invest ball, but I think there is some like underrated benefit of going with pocket passers over mobile quarterbacks, specifically for best ball, because you know, as long assuming they project similarly, Like imagine, imagine this thought.

00:55:22
Speaker 5: Experiment where c J.

00:55:24
Speaker 2: Stroud and Anthony Richardson project similarly. Now that's that's probably not exactly true, but imagine they project similarly.

00:55:31
Speaker 5: Right, when c J.

00:55:32
Speaker 2: Stroud hits his ceiling in a given week, he's almost guaranteed to bring along his wide receivers.

00:55:39
Speaker 5: So, assuming you're stacking, you have c. J.

00:55:41
Speaker 2: Stroud and Nico Collins and Steffon Diggs or any two of his pass catchers, you're very likely not only to have Stroud, you know, hit your lineup when he hits his ceiling, but two of the pass catchers on your roster are very likely to be brought along. Whereas if Richardson hits his ceiling in a given week, it's less correlated with his pass catchers doing so. Now, obviously he can just straight up beat Stroud, and if he beats him by enough points, it doesn't matter that you didn't have the perfect pass catchers, right, But there is some element there where, like the predictability of the pocket passers with their wide receivers. I do think, like in a vacuum, I do lean a little bit more towards the pocket passing quarterbacks in best ball than I would in like a redraft league.

00:56:23
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:56:23
Speaker 1: Well, the other thing too is that in a you know, season long redraft league where you're managing your team, part of the allure of a mobile quarterback is the predictability of you knowing that they're gonna give you something each and every week because of that floor right, Like, Like, one of the biggest things that people misunderstand with mobility at quarterback is that it's more of a floor thing than a ceiling thing. The reason why we've seen the ceiling from the mobile quarterbacks over the last five years is because they finally had the passing numbers to really match that rushing production. It's not like Tim Tebow and Terrell Pryor and those guys from like twenty thirteen where they could give you a random spy because of their rushing, but you know, their passing was atrocious, So their ceiling really wasn't nearly as good as what people generally would think, right, And so basically, the weekly output between a mobile quarterback and a pocket passing quarterback, it's not dramatically different like when you're talking ceiling, when you're talking about like what they can provide on a weekly basis. The real difference is on a season long one, when you're actually managing that team and trying to look at the predictability side, it is better to lean into that mobile quarterback a little bit more and they're going to exceed expectation at a higher rate too, because they do have a nice floor and it's easier for them to hit that that season long ceiling. So a question that I love asking on becoming a best ball bro is how you're attacking the tight end position you know you can you can get a higher end one, but you can do a lot of different things in the position. I feel like it could be a make or break position this season. So so which tight end? Uh, you know, if you if you are getting a higher end one, which one are you generally going after? But I'm also curious who are the later round ones you're going after, because it feels like that position is just horrific once you get into like past like Pat Fryarmouth.

00:58:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is really it is really dark this year in the back end of the tight end landscape. Compared to last year, I felt that there's a ton of great options.

00:58:24
Speaker 5: Yeah.

00:58:24
Speaker 2: My tight end take is I don't know, Like I'm always hesitant to say this because like it's been wrong like so many years in a row that, like in any market trend would tell you this is bad and stupid. But I think that like the low end tight end one grouping and that goes from George Kittle to David in Djoku, so Evan Ingram, Jake Ferguson, brock Bauers, David and Joku. I like those guys like almost as much as I like the top six tight ends. So as a result, I found myself like going if you want to call elite tight end like Joku and Joku and above, I have like overwhelmingly elite tight end builds, but I am.

00:59:11
Speaker 5: Getting more of those lower end tight end ones.

00:59:15
Speaker 2: And yeah, I don't know, Like I definitely could be wrong about this because I know a lot of people disagree, but I just feel fine, like there's kind of discount profiles of the guys that go really early, like, for example, Trey McBride, he's one of the early tight ends.

00:59:28
Speaker 5: I actually do like, so I'm not trying to disparage him.

00:59:31
Speaker 2: But everyone talks about trade McBride's breakout last year from you know, week eight on once you got the starting job from zach Ertz. You care compare him to David and Joku over that ten week stretch than the season, and David and Joku had the same targets for route run as him. He actually outscored McBride and PPR points per game sixteen to fifteen. And I get it, Like in Djoku's breakout was with Joe Flacco a lot of that time. He did have some good weeks with other co in there, but I get why it's like less predictable going forward. But it feels like, you know, McBride has huge changes in his offense next season. You know, Marvin Harrison Junior is coming in immediately being draft from the first round fantasy drafts, like he immediately projects as an alpha that was not there before.

01:00:16
Speaker 5: So there's changes going on there, and.

01:00:18
Speaker 2: I feel like McBride's stretch them the season is like all the way baked int a top and people are saying we don't care about David and Jokubi the tight end one down the stretch last year and similar things with like Kinkaid and Ferguson. Again, I think like you can say Jake Ferguson is kind of just discount Dalton Kincaid. You look at their peripheral stats last year, like very similar aid ots yards per route run once you include the playoff games was identical at one point five targets per route run. Again once you include the playoff games, was pretty much identical at like nineteen percent PPR points per game. Ferguson actually scored more touchdowns than Kincaid, so he outscored him. So I get it, like the first on draft capital potential for Kincaid to take a huge leap and be the alpha in Buffalo, like that's not there with Ferguson, but in Dallas, like who's the wide receiver two and three in Dallas, Like there's really not much competition there as well. So again I just see like these kind of discount bets on the elite profiles. And I really want to say that, like I do think these top eleven tight end profiles are really good, but the opportunity cost of taking the Laporta and the McBride verse, taking the Bowers and Djoku Ferguson, I just lean on taking one of those guys later. And not to say I'm not taking the early ones at all, but I am kind of skewing my exposures to like the lower end tight end ones, which again not been a.

01:01:47
Speaker 5: Good strategy historically. So we'll see if I get buried by that.

01:01:50
Speaker 2: But that's just how I see it from like an individual injection standpoint, and the tight ends this year.

01:01:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they are kind of arbitrage plays off of the early I mean you can even group like an Evan Ingram into the Dalton Kincaid grouping that you were talking about with Jake Ferguson. But then Ferguson obviously being an even cheaper version of that. So that's a very very interesting way of thinking about it that I think a lot of people are going to be be able to take something away from that, for sure. Have there any been Have there been any players who are rising in ADP right now that you know you've just ignored the hype train and you've just continued to draft. You know, obviously we're going to see a lot of this over the next month, where guys are rising an ADP by full rounds based on what's going on in camp. Are there any players that you're leaning into and saying that this is deserved and I still want to get exposure to that guy.

01:02:39
Speaker 5: Yeah.

01:02:41
Speaker 2: One guy that stood out to me here is is Curtis Samuel. Maybe not your traditional hype trained guy, but he has sort of steadily climbed throughout the offseason. I pulled up his best wall Mania ADP you know when the tournament was released till now, and he's one of the biggest ten risers.

01:03:00
Speaker 5: I sort of five percent rise and ADP.

01:03:02
Speaker 2: And Yeah, with him, it's just like it's again, it's not a clean breakout bet. Like we don't usually think of what year six year seven wide receivers as breakout bets. But you look at the list of quarterbacks he's played with over his whole career. Ian Hartez pointed this out on Twitter, but his quarterbacks since he joined the NFL was sort of the last you know, last gasp of Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Taylor Heineke, Kyle Allen, Garrett, Gilbert will Greer, Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz again bad, Carson Wentz not good, Carson Wentz Ye, Sam Howell, and Jacoby Perssett. So yes, he has not had any massive seasons in the NFL to date, but he has been on sort of a per route basis pretty good. You know, twenty percent targets for out run, one point five yards for outrun. Those are very solid numbers considering the target competition and the quarterback he had to work with.

01:03:58
Speaker 5: He also does add a little bit, you.

01:04:00
Speaker 2: Know, ten rushing yards per game over the last four years, and he's always graded out really well in Matt Harmon's reception perception data, you know, eighty two percent diile success rate versus man even last year. So yeah, I'm excited just with the target vacuum in Buffalo there. I think if you look at ADP and Underdog, everyone's projecting Dalton Kincaid to be the huge beneficiary of that. I just think Curtis Samuel because of his age, because it's not the typical arc type we like to project for a breakout, He's a little bit discounted, even in a really heavy wide receiver landscape.

01:04:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a fun that's a fun call out. Are there any guys that you're just completely afraid of drafting this year?

01:04:42
Speaker 2: Oh?

01:04:42
Speaker 5: Man?

01:04:45
Speaker 4: A couple of where to begin? Right?

01:04:47
Speaker 5: Yeah?

01:04:48
Speaker 2: Again, I interpreted this as like, guys, I'm scared to draft, but I'm still clicking on because.

01:04:56
Speaker 4: That's fine too. Yeah, I want to hear that.

01:04:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm scared of draft, like I'm almost equally scared of not drafting them. Jayden Reed is a guy I'm definitely underweight too, but I have been drafting him, especially when he falls a bit by ADP. That's just the whole Green Bay target count petition point. I think they have four really good wide receivers there, maybe even five.

01:05:19
Speaker 5: Maybe five, Yeah, if you want to count bow Mountain.

01:05:23
Speaker 2: He did have some good games down the stretch last year, and yeah, he just did not get playing time in two wide receiver sets as a rookie.

01:05:31
Speaker 5: But at the same time.

01:05:31
Speaker 2: You have all sort of like the market and structural or archetypal factors going his way, you know, second year breakout wide receiver really efficient as a rookie. He also gets the schemed up sort of pre snap motion stuff, some rushing stuff. So yeah, that's one where I'm just like, I don't think the price is right on him. I'm not really clicking him much, but I definitely see how I get burned there. So I'm getting my you know, cozy four percent exposure blanket.

01:06:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a tough one because I think that anyone can see a path to him being like a really good player, or I mean, like he's kind of already a good player, but I'm talking like, you know, let me let me ask you this because I've asked this to like I asked this to Dave Klugy last week on Late Round Perspectives. But if there's a wide receiver on that team, would you say that Jayden Reid would be the receiver that could really come out and become not necessarily an alpha, but like a really, really really good fantasy asset, Like, do you think that the way the ADP is laid out for these guys is correct?

01:06:34
Speaker 4: It's just a matter of you know, there's likely going to be some sort of rotation there.

01:06:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the order of ADP is correct. I just do believe that all four guys are good, and even even like Romeo Dubbs, the guy that I think our corner of the fantasy community likes to hate on because of some efficiency stats, like in the playoffs last year, he was good for andre yeah, one hundred and fifty one yards against the Cowboys in that win, he was like, they're clear starting alpha, even by route participation, like he played the most naps by far, so like, I don't know how you can rule him out when he was just their best player the last time we saw him on the field. Right, So, I think all four of these guys are good, and I think they're like the ultimate better in best ball picks, I just think, like you run the simulation of the season one hundred times, the cheaper guys Wis and Dubs are going to be end up being like better plays. But I do think like if I had to rank them in order, I would rank them in order. The way the market ads is just that Reed is just a little too expensive for my taste.

01:07:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, like you said, the better and bestball thing, I think rings very very true. Like I a lot of like a lot of the crowded wide receiver rooms. I think that's fair to say, Like whether you're looking at Chicago or Houston or Green Bay, where you know, in in the best ball environment when they don't have a decent week, you have backup to come in and you know, insert your lineup for that player, and a managed season long league you don't have the benefit of even like a like a Nico who Yes, we see the upside, and we see the weekly ceiling and we see the contingent upside too for all of these guys. But like we could, like there's going to be a path where it's probably gonna be more of a roller coaster for a lot of those guys in a regular season long league, and that might frustrate that you know what out of people where they just don't want to go down that path, which is totally understandable. But I've realized now that I'm starting to do more of like my season long leagues, and the standard leagues that I do every single year. I'm not gravitating towards them nearly as much, but I'm getting plenty of exposure to those guys in this best ball environment because all of them are in good offenses or that are offenses that we project to be really strong, right, Like I don't I don't know if we're gonna like look back at this season and even look at Jayden Reid in the late fifth into early sixth and even without an injury to the other guys, and say this was a massively bad pick just because just because the offense could be that good, you know what I mean?

01:09:00
Speaker 4: Like, like there are other wide receivers.

01:09:02
Speaker 1: In that range where it could go south, and we wouldn't be that shocked if it went south, you know, now, do I do? I think I'm not trying to be like overexposed to Jayden Reid because I agree that the most likely outcome is this rotation and I'd rather just get kind of the cheaper assets, like I have a lot of Dan Tevian Wix like every.

01:09:19
Speaker 4: Other best ball bro out there.

01:09:21
Speaker 1: But like, yeah, but like I agree, like I think that's probably where your brain is telling you like, hey, still get some exposure to Jaden Reid because this offense could.

01:09:30
Speaker 4: Just be really, really good at the end of the.

01:09:31
Speaker 5: Day, exactly.

01:09:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I just I don't want to bet against what Jordan Love showed at the end last year.

01:09:39
Speaker 5: So yeah, I totally agree with that.

01:09:41
Speaker 2: It's just that, you know, you only have so many picks to make in best Ball that that's why I'm kind of fading read.

01:09:48
Speaker 5: But again, at the end of the day, like people like.

01:09:50
Speaker 2: This argument, like who's the guy that you get to the playoffs and he's sort of like the low advanced rate, high ceiling guy like Jayden Reid or anyone from these crowded wide receiver rooms like in Chicago. I could totally see the case for those guys like likely being that type of player where Reed was too inconsistent during the year to really help you advance much out of your pods. But you know, Week sixteen, Dante Avian Wicks twist's ankle. All of a sudden, Jane Reid's playing eighty five percent of the snaps and he's like so efficient per route that he's really a guy you want there, Like like you said, like, I don't think we're gonna look back on it and be like, Oh, Jayden Reid was such a dumb pick, like he was dust by the end of the season. That's not what I'm saying, right Like, It's just that.

01:10:33
Speaker 5: He's it's just so tricky with the rotation. Yeah, at that fifth round price to get there for me.

01:10:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, I totally, I totally got it because I felt that way all off season.

01:10:42
Speaker 2: Two.

01:10:42
Speaker 1: One more question before I let you go, since we're talking at a team level here a little bit, are there any offenses that you look at, and I know you've done a lot of work for ETR about like motion and stuff and how that might impact these teams here in twenty twenty four, Are there any offenses that you're leaning into more or maybe staying away from more based on that research.

01:11:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, A couple that I think are a little bit more under the radar. I think the Saints are an obvious one, and the Falcons are an obvious one that people talk about. I think two that are going a little bit more under the radar in terms of different schemes are the Eagles and the Bills. And again, these are offenses that you know, no one's saying that people aren't paying attention to the Eagles and Bills, but I think it is a little bit underrated. The offensive coordinator change for the Eagles going to Kellen Moore. In twenty twenty three of the Chargers were fifth in pre snap motion usage in the passing game and eighth in sort of at snap motion, so snapping the ball when a guy is running in motion at the play. By comparison Brian Johnson, who was the coordinator of the Eagles last year, they were ranked in the bottom four in both of those pre snap motion metrics. So I think there's this like other ceiling that both Aj Brown and on To Smith could hit in this offense, even though they've been really good the past couple of years. I think like, weirdly, people are like a little bit bored with Aj Brown, Like he is back to back, you know, fifteen hundred yard, ten touchdown seasons basically, and because of how they closed last season, people.

01:12:18
Speaker 5: Are a little down on him.

01:12:20
Speaker 2: Now. Obviously he still goes in top ten by ADP, but I think people aren't putting him in the same tier as a Monra Chase and that grouping. I do think like if this this pre snap motion which has been proven to make passing offenses and wide receivers more efficient. If that could unlock some easier underneath targets for Brown, really let him use his yards after the catch ability, I think that could be really exciting.

01:12:46
Speaker 5: So, yeah, he's now climbed up. There was a period where.

01:12:48
Speaker 2: He was going behind Puka and Garrett Wilson. I was taking him over those guys, and to want to Smith for similar reasons, I think could really benefit from that as well.

01:13:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there was a time where you could very easily stack aj Brown, Davonte Smith, and Jalen Hurts earlier this offseason, like especially before the draft went, like the big board drafts and stuff, you could get the three of them pretty easily. But those days are gone because DeVante Smith is now like a two three turn guy, which I think is where he should be right Like, based on what you're talking about there, you know, there's contingent upside for him. I've done research It shows that wide receiver twos in fantasy that are drafted as wide receiver twos who are their team's wide receiver twos, they actually perform better. Like I just wouldn't discount them, you know, at the very least versus the other types of players. So there's a lot pointing favorably for DeVante Smith to us. So I think that's a very very good call out.

01:13:45
Speaker 4: Sam.

01:13:45
Speaker 1: This is a great chatting with you. Let everyone know where they can find you in the work that you're doing.

01:13:50
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you can find my written work at.

01:13:54
Speaker 2: Established the Run, have an article up there, as I talked about on PO Motion, working on an article about some advanced data and alignment stuff with tight ends, so that will be up on the side in the next couple weeks. And then yeah, you can find me on Twitter or x sort of re call it these days at Sherman Underscore FFB. And last thing, if you're into Best Ball, I hope you're checking out ADP Chasing on Chip Chasing. We had JJ on the pod last week, two weeks ago, a couple weeks and yeah, have a lot.

01:14:29
Speaker 5: Of good guests coming on there this summer.

01:14:31
Speaker 2: That's with me, Pat Green and Davis Maddock, and yeah, we just talked about ADP movement and all things Best Ball.

01:14:39
Speaker 5: So you can listen to more of our takes over there.

01:14:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great show, a lot of fun.

01:14:44
Speaker 1: It's one of those marathon shows where you just kind of hang out and you know, it's like it's just a chill environment. So definitely check that out what they're doing with ADP chasing. You can find me on Twitter at late Round QB. Obviously check out late round dot com. Make sure you're checking out the draft guide, take advantage of the underdo promo that's over there, but otherwise everyone, thank you for tuning in.