625: Free Agency Fallout

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j J zacher reson Jesus, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and twenty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I'm not afraid to admit that I've watched many seasons of The Bachelor. I haven't watched it as much recently, but I know way more about that television franchise than I ever expected to know. Now, anytime they do promos for that show, they always say something along the lines of it's the most dramatic season of The Bachelor yet, which we know is mostly a lie. Is just to get people to tune in. So when I say what I'm about to say, know that I'm not just exaggerating. I know how it might come across, but I'm not exaggerating. I'm being serious. This free agency period was more dramatic, more insane than any other free agency period I've seen in my professional career. There were so many moves, and not all of them were just big signings either. We had massive, massive trades, trades that we've never really seen before. In NFL history. So today I'm gonna go through those moves, not every single one of them, but at least the big ones. I'll provide some context for what the moves mean in fantasy football, and I'll give some Dynasty recommendations as well. I hope you walk away from this show with insights that you weren't thinking about before the show started. That's the goal. Now, before getting into everything sports fans, it's time to introduce you to the all new FanDuel Faceoff, a brand new mobile gaming app from America's leading sportsbook and daily fantasy sports company. Fandeal. Faceoff allows users to compete in quick, fun games against others for real cash. With games typically lasting from two to five minutes and happening twenty four to seven. You can always find a contest and compete, whether it be head to head, multiplayer or five hundred dollars prize pool tournaments. FanDuel Faceoff has something for you. Plus, we'll be matched against players of similar skill levels, so you're never really totally overmatched, and it's tied to your FanDuel accountant wallet, so you can easily use your daily fantasy and sportsbook funds in the app, visit Fandel dot com, slash faceoff, or download the app in the Apple Store today. Well, let's kick things off with DeVante Adams. The Packers are gonna have a hard time retaining both Rogers and Adams at their prices, and clearly Rogers was a priority. Devanta Adams is now a Raider As a result, that leaves the Packers wide receiver group completely wide open. At the time of this recording, Alan Lazard is the only legitimate option at wide receiver for them, and Alan Lazard may not be a legitimate option. It seems clear they're going to utilize this draft capital that they've got to build up at the position, and they may still look to sign a veteran wide receiver and free agency. But like I said on last week's Mailbag episode, someone like Amari Rodgers, he's not really doing it for me. His year two model score in the sixty third percentile, where we've really seen zero hits over the last decade. Aaron Rodgers without DeVante Adams seems like a scary thing to buy into in Dynasty. I understand if you'd rather pass on Rogers given his age, that's totally fine. It's more than reasonable, but we have at least some sample of Rogers without Adams over the last three years. Adams has missed seven games over this time. In those seven games, Rogers averaged over twenty four Fantasy points per game. His median score was actually higher than that outside of that split. Those numbers were twenty point two and twenty one point seven. Now this isn't to say that Rogers is better off without DeVante Adams. There's gonna be a lot of noise and splits like that. I do think it should at least provide us with some comfort, though, knowing that he's performed fine without Adams in the past, at least from a fantasy perspective. He really only had one bad game out of those seven. Just don't overrate splits like that. They can be helpful in letting us know what's possible, but it's really easy to fall into a trap. I think it's obvious that an offense losing Deavante Adams gets worse. Just be logical about it. But that doesn't mean that Aaron Rodgers is absolute toast in fantasy, especially since there's a chance that the Packers end up getting more depth out of this trade. Now, as for Adams, I think you naturally will see a decline going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr. And it really doesn't have to do with Derek Carr. I think Derek Carr is a good quarterback, He's just not Aaron Rodgers. Now. I always preach that targets are earned, and that's very, very true. DeVante Adams is one of the best in the game, so he's going to see a high target share with Derek Carr. But Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller are both good players too, and Adams wasn't just targeted at a high rate with Aaron Rodgers. He was targeted at a very high rate. In fact, over the last three years, Adams has averaged a target share per game of thirty point nine percent or better in each season, and that's simply total target share divided by games played during this timeframe. Over the last three years, there have only been three other wide receivers seas across the entire league to hit that mark. You had Cooper Cup last year, Michael Thomas in twenty nineteen, DeAndre Hopkins in twenty nineteen. Adams has done that in each of the last three years. That thirty point nine percent target share per game. So what does that tell you? It tells you that while Adams is good, it's very difficult to see that kind of share year after year after year. There are other elite wide receivers in the league and they're not seeing that share. Now, He's still a really, really good asset in fantasy football. It's not like Derek Carr is bad, and they obviously have a history together, but I do think this move is a downgrade for Devonte Adams overall. Now, DeVante Adams is on a new team, and so is Tyreek Hill. It's honestly wild saying that, but Tyreek Hill is a Dolphin. When the Dolphins drafted Jalen Waddle last year, I understood it a lot from a fit perspective. Tua's tight window numbers weren't abnormal as a rookie, he did throw into tight windows, but that's not his game. He just didn't have play who could separate. I think this is a big reason why he's never really worked out with Devonte Parker. So the Dolphins go out and they get a guy who can create that separation in Jalen Waddle, and fortunately for them, it worked out and now they're doing the exact same thing with Tyreek Hill. A lot is going to be made about Tua's deep ball numbers, but I think we should give those numbers some context. Has tu have been aggressive throwing the ball down the field so far in the NFL? No. Over the last two years, the average across the NFL and fifteen plus airyard throws has been seventeen percent, meaning seventeen percent of NFL passes by quarterbacks have gone fifteen or more yards through the air. Tua has been well below that mark in each of the last two years. As a rookie he was at fourteen point eight percent, and last year he was under thirteen percent, So he's been way under in deep ball frequency. You can look at that from twenty plus airyard throws too, and you can draw the exact same conclusion. Among all quarterbacks with two hundred and fifty or more attempts over the last two seasons, two A ranks thirty eight, forty five and twenty plus airyard rate. So he's not pushing the ball down the field. That's where the narrative is generated about Tua and his deep ball ability. But here's the thing. When he does push it down the field. It's not terrible. His completion rate, according to Pro Football Focus on those twenty plus airyard throws is forty one point four percent Among those same forty five quarterbacks. That ranks eighteenth in terms of completion percentage on those throws. He's done better over the last two years than Derek Carr, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson. It doesn't mean that he's a better deep ball passer than those quarterbacks. He's clearly picking and choosing when to go down the field. It just means that there's something that we can work with here. It's not like Tua is incapable of throwing it deep or throwing it deep well. He just hasn't done it very often, so I think there could be worse landing spots for Tyreek Hill. We have more hope that Mike McDaniel will use him creatively than another coach would, and Tua is not like a bad quarterback. There are actually some parallels between Tua and the quarterback that Hill played with before, Patrick Mahomes, and that's Alex Smith. Smith last year in Kansas City was in twenty seventeen and he had a great year. This was also Tyreek Hill's second year in the league, his breakout season, and he finished with almost twelve hundred receiving yards in fifteen games with seven touchdowns. He was seventh in points per game at wide receiver that year. I think Hill takes an obvious hit, don't get me wrong, but it's not like he's going away. It's still a better landing spot than most places that he could have gone, and he's an incredibly good football player. I think both Hill and Waddle can be relevant in fantasy football. I doubt they're both top twelve guys, but I'd argue that things were gonna change for Waddle a bit in year two. Anyway, it's very possible for both players to be starters in fantasy football. We see that from teammates all the time. They can combine for a forty five to fifty percent target chair in this offense as it stands right now, I don't think anyone would be surprised if that happened. So, yes, a downgrade for both players because of this deal. They're downgraded, but keep an eye on them because the market could very easily overdo things with Tyreek Hill, especially So now let's shift to the Chiefs offense. Our only real sample of Patrick Mahomes without Tyreek Hill was a four week stretch in twenty nineteen. From weeks two through five, Mahomes averaged twenty four fantasy points per game. So the sample isn't nearly as big as it was with Aaron Rodgers and DeVante Adams, but at least we know something's possible. We know Mahomes can be relevant without Tyreek Hill. But again, let's not overstate a split and look at this just logically. Tyreek Hill is incredible at football, and losing an incredible pass catcher cannot be good news or even neutral news for a quarterback. Generally speaking, like the Packers, we should expect the Chiefs to address wide receiver in the draft, But unlike the Packers, Chiefs added some wide receiver pieces through free agency. They signed Juju Smith Schuster, and they signed Marquez Valdez Scantling. MVS is someone who can stretch the field, and he at least fits in this offense. As a result, you're pairing him with a big arm quarterback and Patrick Mahomes. In twenty twenty one, MVS was first in the NFL among fifty plus target receivers and percentage of targets that traveled fifteen or more air yards. He's likely going to play a similar role with the Chiefs now, Judas Smith Schuster is an interesting case. As some of you guys might remember, Juju was a by candidate for me in Dynasty earlier this offseason. But I'm almost considering him a sell at this point if someone's willing to overpay. So let's talk about why. Number one. We know the Chiefs likely aren't done, adding they're probably going to draft at least one higher end wide receiver, you would think number two. I don't know what evidence is out there to tell us that Juju is anything more than a really good slot guy. He's a very very good slot player, but the Steelers gradually used him more and more in the slot versus the perimeter as the years went on in Pittsburgh. That means there's a chance for some sealing limitations for Juju, as in I doubt we ever see Juju become a wide receiver one in Dynasty again, And the only way he gets there in redraft is if he's peppered with targets in a single season there are a handful of wide receivers in this year's draft class with a wide receiver one ceiling, whereas Juju is not there. So if you're trading a pick where you can get one of those wide receivers for Juju Smith Schuster, keep that in mind. But I do think that Juju is way more of a buy right now for a competitive team than a rebuilding one. Now, if you look at this depth chart, obviously, right now, there's a chance that if Kansas City doesn't really do that much, Juju will get peppered with targets in twenty twenty two. The problem is the draft capital that they have and the fact that it's still March and Travis Kelcey is still there taking the same area of the field as Juju Smith Schuster. So if someone is buying at a premium, you can sell Juju, especially if you're chasing ceiling. I haven't seen the market react harshly though, so maybe he's not a sell in your league, But there could be people overstating what this all means for him very easily. I mean, he's associated with Patrick Mahomes now, and keep in mind he's not a one year deal. And again if you're thinking more redraft or win now, he's more of a hold. Part of that is because he's good at what he does, and part of is that Kansas City just doesn't have a good wide receiver depth chart. I think you have to at least ask the question, what if Kansas City doesn't do that much in the draft. I don't think that's likely, but it's still possible. And even if they do add those pieces, they're still young pieces, they're inexperienced pieces, they're rookie pieces that may not hurt Juju as much in the short term. That's why he's more of a hold if you're looking for the short term production, but more of a cell if you can truly get him from one of those rookie wide receiver pieces with a high ceiling. Now, I honestly don't have a ton of takes on the Deshaun Watson thing for Cleveland, and I'm talking about on the field takes. It's sort of how I feel about Tampa Bay. Like, I'm not even gonna dig into the Tampa Bay situation on today's show because we all generally know what to expect. We've seen Tampa Bay with Tom Brady, we know how that that offense can operate, but everyone in the Browns offense gets an obvious bump with Deshaun Watson. I've seen some takes out there about Deshaun Watson's tendency to not throw to the tight end position or not elevate tight ends in fantasy football, but this is a classic example of why we shouldn't ignore personnel and scheme when we make those types of assumptions. It's also not entirely true. Watson played his first full year in Houston in twenty eighteen, so he as a starter from twenty eighteen through twenty twenty. We won't dig into his rookie season because he didn't play that much. In twenty eighteen, Houston was actually twelfth in tight end target share. In twenty nineteen they were fifteenth, and twenty twenty they were twenty first. Now, quick name a tight end that DeShawn Watson was throwing to during that time. The best one was probably Darren Fell's. I mean, that's what we're working with here. The fact that those target share numbers were as high as they were would actually make me feel more bullish about the Browns tight ends like David and Joku, It wouldn't make me feel the opposite because in Djoku at least has the athleticism to be a huge fantasy producer. And we know this Stefanski offense has been tight end centric. Now, aside from that, don't sleep on Donovan People's Jones in Cleveland either. I think most people are understandably assuming that Cleveland will add more at the wide receiver position, but he could end up getting a real opportunity opposite to Marii Cooper. And as I noted with that stat with Marquez Valdez scantling earlier, People's Jones was actually second in percentage of target as it traveled fifteen or more aer yards last year with Watson under center, that makes him pretty intriguing. We'll have to wait and see if they signed someone. But it's not like people are super excited to trade for DPJ right now. I don't mind throwing that dart. Look, when teams get elite quarterbacks, everyone on that team generally gets better. Denver has Russell Wilson. Now, I talked about this a little bit already on a Mailbag episode, but let's just dig into this situation really quick. I think there's certainly more upside with Wilson himself now because he's hopefully going to be running an offense it's not from nineteen seventy five. That's really the big thing for me. He's had metcalf and locket over the last few years, and I'd say the situation in general in Denver it's an upgrade. He has better personnel around him. But what we really need for Russ is an offense that supports his strengths and one that may allow him to get back to his mobile self. Now. Part of this may be the result from his injury last year, but he averaged a career low thirteen rushing yards per game last season. We need that number to go up in order for him to have that elite ceiling that he once had. Jerry Judy gets a bump, though Courtland Sutton gets a bump. Alberto gets a bump. kJ Hamler gets a bump, Tim Patrick gets a bump, Javonte Williams gets a bump. There's going to be more scoring opportunities in Denver that helps everyone in that offense. And I've seen the idea floated out there that this is a bigger deal for Courtland Sutton than Jerry Judy, And I guess that's kind of true because we've seen Russ heave it deep at a pretty good rate throughout his career. He can actually get Sutton involved down the field on the perimeter, on the outside. But I think a lot of that talk is more senator on the idea that Sutton wasn't getting much love in general within the fantasy community before this deal happened, and now he deserves a lot of it. He's a good player and now he has a great quarterback. Just don't let that burry Jerry Judy because the talent is there for Judy. As I've said this offseason, there's a real chance at his injury last year just derailed his season. And we know how we were viewing Judy versus Sutton entering the twenty twenty one season. But this is w's for everyone in Denver. This is big news for the Broncos and on the flip side for Seattle. Again, I talked about this on a previous mailbag as well, but DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are going to be tough to buy into right now. Metcalf did show some promising splits without Wilson last year, but there's some sample size variants to that. Going from Wilson to whoever's playing quarterback in Seattle is a downgrade. I'm more concerned about Lockett if he doesn't get dealt. Lockett was first in the NFL and percentage of yards that came from fifteen plus airyard throws last year among ninety relevant wide receivers. That number wasn't so drastic in twenty twenty, but Lockett also saw one hundred and thirty two targets in twenty twenty versus one hundred and seven last year. So in order for him to really maintain or come close to his level of production, we need Seattle to go a little bit more pass heavy, which is very unlikely, or they need to target Lockett at a higher rate, which is also unlikely just given where he's at in his career. So I'm naturally more worried about Lockett than DK Metcalf. So let's hope that he can find a new home before the season starts. Alan Robinson's gonna be playing with the best quarterback that he's ever played with. He's now in Los Angeles. He gets Matthew Stafford, and there's no more Robert Woods, who's off to Tennessee to probably see like a twenty two percent target chair in that run heavy offense. Woods consistently saw twenty one to twenty four percent of LA's targets per game, which is something that we should expect from Alan Robinson. Robinson arguably has a little bit more upside than that because we know his ceiling is being a monster on the outside, but it's undoubtedly big if from a redraft perspective, I'm more by than sell with Robinson, probably as in I think last year was just a mess for a lot of reasons. For Robinson. The scheme was terrible for him. There was apparently some bad blood between Matt Naggy and Robinson. He was on a team this past year with a rookie quarterback. Things were just bad overall. There's at least some reason that this was not Alan Robinson's cliff, but we've seen that cliff get hit before with some of these perimeter guys. We saw it with Des Bryant. There's still a possibility that that was it for Alan Robinson, but I didn't see that necessarily being the issue with Robinson through data or through my eyes. In twenty twenty one, so it's a big win for him. He'll be the number two option target share wise in that offense, and if they don't add anyone else, Van Jefferson is also a big winner here because we know the Rams love them some eleven personnel. Now, I guess I have to talk about the Jaguars offense too. I just like you, am not entirely sure what they're doing, but let's just work here with what you know they have. Forget the salary cap and what they spent. My job is going to tell you who's managing their team properly. My job is to tell you what's going down in fantasy football. Christian Kirk is a good player, but I questioned the fit. It's good that there are rumors of Leviska Schanol potentially being moved because it'll give Kirk a little bit more flexibility in this offense. Kirk played seventy eight percent of his snaps from the slot last year, according to Pro Football Focus, but that number was sixteen percent in twenty twenty. Kirk had a more favorable PFF grade in twenty twenty one than in twenty twenty, and he was a lot more efficient per target too, which means he had a better season last year when he played mostly in the slot versus the year before when he was mostly on the outside. I'm definitely not calling Kirk some ordinary slot player. He can get down the field and he can open things up for the Jags, which they definitely need. It's just hard to not see that he had his best year in twenty twenty one, and that best season came with a lot of snaps coming from a particular area of the field, So the Jags better use him in that area of the field. Let's just assume then that the Jags were gonna move on from Laviska Schanoldt or just not use him, which is fine. He hasn't showed that much in the NFL. Kirk then can naturally play a little bit more in the slot with Marvin Jones and Zay Jones on the outside. That makes enough sense if you just remove the dollar value forget how much it all costs. Now. What was weird was the Evan Ingram signing Ingram is not a traditional tight end and he can be utilized in almost like a Mica Sicki type way, so I was hoping that he would find a spot where that could happen. But I don't think this is that spot. I do think there's a chance to buy into Kirk, at least in redraft, just on the fact that people will underrate him because of that contract. Like it's a cool thing right now to hate on Christian Kirk and his deal, But we don't care about that in fantasy. We care about the player. And there's a chance that Kirk becomes a security blanket and go to wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence. That's at least somewhat enticing. James Connor had a big second half of twenty twenty one, and things look pretty simil for him as of right now. In twenty twenty two, he resigned with Arizona, while Chase Edmonds went to Miami. Edmonds is now with Raheem most are potentially another running back if they draft one, while James Connor he's only competing with EO Benjamin right now. There's basically a five game stretch last year where Edmonds got hurt. He got hurt early in that game against San Francisco in Week nine, where Connor was the lead back. Then during that stretch Week nine through Week fourteen, Connor ranked first, eighteenth, eighth, eleventh, and second and weekly scoring at running back that's in PPR formats. He averaged almost twenty six PPR points per game, and most importantly, he had a target share per game of almost sixteen percent. When Edmonds returned, that target chair fell back down to well under ten percent. I think that's gonna be key in twenty twenty two. Yes, touchdown regression is coming, but if Connor maintains a bellcow role, that regression won't make him some RB three I haven't done projections yet, so please understand this can change. But Connor's in that high end RB two range right now now given their current situation. And look, I really liked EEno Benjamin entering the league. I liked him as a later round dart, but we have to be realistic. He had some opportunity last year to show us that he can have a role in this offense, and nothing came of it. Maybe he improves here in year three, but I do think the odds are against him. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona finds a way to take a pass catching back in this draft, and that could be somewhat of a problem because there are a lot of them that could fit, like a Tyler Baty type who I actually think comps relatively well to Eno Benjamin. That's the risk with Connor right now, but I could see a scenario where they just ride him and he's a fantasy value in redraft because managers are just overrating what regression could do to him. He's still going to see a lot of volume, and that's what we care about most now. The last thing I want to touch on quickly today is the quarterback carousel. I don't have a ton of takes here, but we have a ton of these secondary quarterback options finding new homes across the league. Carson Wentz is in Washington, Matt Ryan in Indianapolis, Marcus Mariota in Atlanta, and Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh, and obviously Drew lock is in Seattle now because of that Russell Wilson trade. Generally speaking, I don't think there's a ton of takeaways for what this means for team's pass catchers, because clearly, if a team is replacing a quarterback, the original quarterback wasn't all that good to begin with. Seattle aside, is Matt Ryan an upgrade for Michael Pittman over Carson Wentz. I mean, I guess I think there's at least a little bit more ambiguity because we haven't seen Matt Ryan in this offense, so that generates some potential upside. You could look at it that way. Is Carson Wentz an upgrade over what Washington worked with last year? Probably? Yeah, And that obviously means good things for Terry McLaurin. Wentz really wasn't that horrific for McLean Pocket last year, and it's good that we just saw him help elevate someone like Michael Pittman. Is Mitch Trubisky a better fit in Matt Canada's offense than Ben Roethlisberger was? For sure? Will that generate more down the field target for Chase Claypool? Maybe? I think offensive line improvements though, could help that more. The bottom line is it's still March, so much is changing. It's better to just have general, high level thoughts about this right now, about how these quarterback changes are going to impact skill position players on their teams, because then you can be reactive when the team adds players to that offense, because they're going to do that through the draft for now, from a fantasy perspective with those spots with questionable quarterbacks, just feel some optimism over last year. That's how I would approach it. Teams are trying to get better. It's hard to imagine those quarterbacks at this moment without any more information. It's hard to imagine those guys are going to drastically change the outlooks for players in their offenses. And even if the players and those offenses see drastic changes, it's not necessarily just on the quarterback. These teams are adding other pieces as well, So just have a general understanding that things are going to change a lot, and don't overrate what one of those secondary quarterbacks could do to pass catchers on their team. Now, obviously the there are a lot more players I could have talked about today, and I plan on talking about those players in the coming weeks. Whether we're talking Jamison Crowder, zach Ertz, djhar Jady McKissick, there are a lot of guys that we could talk about. You can feel free to hit me up for the mailbag shows about those players. I will gladly gladly answer those questions. I'll gladly answer questions about guys that I talked about on today's show because I'm sure you're gonna have some questions about them. For now, those are my free agency takes. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. They don't follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. I'll talk to you later in the week with the mail Bag Show.