803: 10 Trends for Week 3

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha j J zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I posted my rest of season rankings in the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. You can get those livestream q and as with yours truly weekly rankings and tears and more by heading to Lateround dot com and learning more. Now it's the quickest show of the week, the ten trend show, Let's Do It. The Bears offense is broken. Not only does it rank dead last and airyards per attempt, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you've got Justin Fields at quarterback, but Justin Fields is not running. He had just four rush attempts in Week two and he's seen just two designed runs this year. That was pointed out by Connor Allen of four for four. That rush attempt total was the lowest that Fields has seen in the game since Week eleven of twenty twenty one. That was a game where he got hurt. If this continues, Justin Fields is going to fail, period. But Here's the thing. I created a poll on Twitter this week asking if people prefer Jordan Love or Justin Field's rest of season, and Jordan Love won pretty convincingly at fifty eight percent. I prefer Field's rest of season because we know the insane upside is there. If the Bears realize they've got to let him loose a little bit more, then he can be unleashed, at least for fantasy football purposes. Long term. I have so many concerns short term your season long league, I have fewer concerns. My only concern is getting him to run more, which could easily happen. I'd take that chance on him because he's so cheap right now now with trend two. You can check out this trend yourself by looking at the free toolsover on fantasylife dot com. But Tony Pollard man. According to the numbers that they've got over there, Pollard's first in the league with twelve carries within the opponent's ten yard line. He's seen seventy five percent of the team's rushes from that area of the field. No other player in football has more than six, and Pollard leads the NFL and goal line rushes too. He's shaping up to be a true difference maker in fantasy football. This season. The Buffalo Bills have seen their tight end target shair increase from fourteen percent last year to twenty five point three percent this year. They have the six highest tight end target chair in football right now, and they've run the most twelve personnel so two tight end sets in all of football to start the year. They were dead last in twelve personnel groupings last year. As we all expected after the draft, Dalton Kincaid has seriously changed this offense. I don't think Deshaun Watson's gonna happen. It's at least not trending that way. Watson currently ranks twenty second in PFF passing grade, he's third worst, and completion percentage over expected he ranks only ahead of Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett and expected points added per dropback. Now. I thought he was the right risk reward bet this year in fantasy football strictly because of upside, but that upside's not gonna hit if he keeps playing this poorly. He looks just like the awful quarterback that he was last year. We only have a two game sample, so my adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers aren't very secure, but they're still fun to look at. They're still fun to talk through. So far this year, the Chargers rank first and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers by a pretty wide margin. Week one, they allowed the Dolphins to work against them, and the Dolphins weren't as good and weak two, so that makes sense. But they look like a defense to target at the moment and the team that's been the best for running backs and adjusted points allowed also makes plenty of sense. At Chicago in Week one, Aaron Jones went off against them. In Week two, Rashad White had a nice outing. It's early, so these numbers are bound to change, but I think objectively those rankings make plenty of sense. Nico Collins is crushing it this year. He's third in are yards across the league. He's got a twenty three and a half percent target chair that's resulted in the six most PPR points at the position. According to my rest of the season rankings, I'm higher on Nico versus where the consensus is at, largely because Houston's not really looking great. Their pass rates been high even in neutral script environments, So clearly, I'm more on the buy side than the cell side right now. And honestly it's similar with Tank Dell too. Only one team across the league has a single digit percentage target shair to tight ends, and he guesses it's the Raiders. Despite their investment Michael Mayer, just eight point two percent of their targets have gone to tight ends to start the year. Mayor himself and Week two had just a four point three percent target chair and a sub forty percent route participation, so he's definitely not someone who needs to be on your radar right now. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been an absolute nightmare for opposing offenses to start the year. Yeah, they haven't been totally tested, but listen to this. Their first and sack rate, their first in pressure rate, their first and passing expected points per drop back aloud, they're first and touchdowns allowed. It's just been a completely dominating performance thus far for this defense, and they've become one of the rare plug and play defenses in fantasy football. From a backfield share perspective, Miles Sanders has had good usage to start the year. In Week two, he saw almost eighty eight percent of Carolina's running back rushes in a sixteen percent target chair. He's now seen seventy four percent of the team's running back rushes and an impressive seventeen percent target chair to start the season. The problem is that the offense is being led by a rookie quarterback. It hasn't hit its stride, so Sanders isn't finding the end zone and he hasn't been overly efficient. If the offense improves, Sanders could come through. So if you feel optimistic about Carolina, you might want to consider buying Miles Sanders. For me, he's just a hold. Now, speaking of running backs with rookie quarterbacks this last trend, let's talk about Damian Pierce. He has not been good in fantasy to start the year, and game script is a massive problem. According to Fantasy Life's utilization report, Pierce has played just seventeen percent of the team snaps winning the two minute offense. Devin Singletary has been that player, so Pierce, in turn, hasn't even hit a fifty percent snap rate to start the season. I wish I could sit here and say that things are going to get better, but I'm not optimistic that it's going to get better in week three because they get Jacksonville and they're huge underdogs. Maybe Pierce really gets things going against Pittsburgh in Week four. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by stretching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Angel to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out the Late Round Fantasy Football Instagram that's at Late Round FF over there. Otherwise, thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.