363: A Top-Heavy Running Back Class

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and sixty three of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I'm excited for you guys to hear today's show on this year's running back class because I brought back my friend Evan Silva to talk about it. You guys know Evan from his days at Roadal World, and you've probably seen that he's part of the website established the Run These Days, which you all should check out. Evan talked about why we should care about running back skill, and he broke down some of his favorite backs in this year's class. You're gonna walk away from our discussion having learned something new. Now, before get into the interview, I just want to let you guys know that even with the NBA on hold, there's still plenty of NBA action to be had on FANDLE. Some of the league's top players will be repping their teams and battling it out in e sports, and fandal is giving you a chance to get involved with its e hoops player tourney props. Pick them. All you have to do is answer eight questions about the day's matchups, sit back and watch the game unfold. They'll be playing for bragging rights, but you'll be playing for a share of the daily five thousand dollars prize bowl. For more details, was it fandle dot com or download the Fandel app today. Now let's listen to Evan talk about this year's running back class. So, Evan, if running back replaceability in the NFL is high, or if the running back position doesn't matter a whole lot in football, why should we even care about how talented a running back prospect actually is.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a good Well, first of all, you know, quote unquote talent is a very nebulous term. What does that really mean? And I think that that's the foundation of the question. Before landing spots have been like locked in for this running back class, I think what's more important than the nebulous term talent talent is trying to determine skill sets where running backs win, where they lose their strengths, their weaknesses, and I think that we've determined at this point that running backs that get dropped into high opportunity plus environment situations are generally going to succeed and vice versa. And running backs that are drafted higher in the draft are going to get more opportunities to succeed and they tend to be a little bit better. And running backs who catch passes in an increasingly pass heavy league are likelier to succeed. So I think it's less about defining quote unquote talent and more about trying to define skill sets, especially until we know the landing spots for each running back and we can do analysis with that additional information.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd argue that it extends even past, you know, just the simple prospecting. I mean, we're looking at how talented these running backs are performing in season as nflers because we want them to climb their depth chart, right even if even if we think that their particular skill sets aren't that good, or if we you know, if the consensus believes that a skill set is good, and then the coach believes that, and we see that even though we don't necessarily see the impact that are running back is making, you know, to a team's bottom line, then we know that that player can still elevate himself. You know, I think a good example is Aaron Jones. You know, he's someone who I think we both were on whenever they drafted him at least ahead of Jamal Williams, and we saw his sort of his rise within that depth chart because he's just the more talented player in general, even though the bottom line with Aaron Jones in and out of that lineup might not be super super impactful.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and if I recall correctly, they took him after Jamal Williams. They did, Yeah, yep, And we knew that he was just he was more explosive. Part of his skill set was that he was a legitimately explosive. Back part of his skill set was that he was he caught a bunch of passes in college, recorded enough passes, and you know, the opposite was kind of true for Jamal Williams, who was a guy that got praised for his pass blocking, which you know that that's nice to have in your back pocket, but that shouldn't be one of your your greatest strengths and really wasn't explosive. And you know, he was all right in terms of his receiving numbers in college. But I think it was clear that Aaron Jones did have this superior all around skill set and by that, by that same token, I think you could say that we knew that he was more talented than ben Jamal Williams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of explosive players, you have two guys at the top of a lot of draft boards, one of them being an incredibly explosive player and Jonathan Taylor, one of them being DeAndre Swift, who has a lot of athleticism as well. Obviously not to Jonathan Taylor's degree, but those are the top two consensus backs right now. I'm curious where you land with those guys, and I'm also curious if data is a big part of that evaluation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So my sense is that the NFL is higher on DeAndre Swift than we are, and maybe a lot lower on Jonathan Taylor than we are. And I think that there are a lot of reasons for that, and I mean, I could go on and on about it, but I think that it starts with where they played college football. And you know, I'm not really a subscriber to the theory that, oh, this running back play at this school, So downgrade him for him for that this running back play at this other school. Upgrade him. He must be great. You know, there's been a lot of success among the Georgia running backs recently, and the level of success for running backs coming out of Wisconsin has been lower historically, with the exception of Melvin Gordon and James White has been a guy who probably outplayed his draft position. Yep. But yeah, I mean Jonathan Taylor has advantages on DeAndre Swift in terms of again, if we're breaking down just skill set, when what he brings to the table in terms of size, in terms of workhorse capability and demonstrated workhorse capability, because Jonathan Taylor show to me average over two thousand rushing yards per season in college. DeAndre Swift was really, you know, a combo back for most of his Georgia career. In terms of speed score, Jonathan Taylor has an edge on DeAndre Swift. And I thought that he took a big step forward as a receiving back in his final season at Wisconsin. I mean, like, I just tend to really like big backs that can catch the ball, that are efficient running between the tackles, that don't get hurt. Jonathan Taylor has like an impeccable history of durability, and he runs with long speed. He can legit outrun defenders. So I'm definitely a Jonathan Taylor guy. And I think that that's a lot based on data, that's a lot based on watching them play, and that's a lot based on you know, just kind of knowing, just kind of having a good feel for what skill sets translate well to the NFL. I think that DeAndre Swift is going to be a good player in the NFL. I think that Jonathan Taylor is a better bet to be like a three down workhorse in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that brings me to my next question. The top comp for Jonathan Taylor in my prospect model was Ezekiel Elliott. I mean the comparison there is actually pretty strong. It wasn't that week of a comp. Do you think that he is potentially that level of a prospect, but he's not getting nearly the type of love that Zeke got coming out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting because that is also Jonathan Taylor's best comparable player on playerprofile dot com, which is, you know, one hundred percent data driven. And also that was the comparison that NFL films Greg Cosell used for Jonathan Taylor Ezekiel Elliott, and he is entirely film based. So yeah, I mean, I think that there's there's a lot of dots kind of connecting Jonathan Taylor to Ezekiel Elliott as a comparison, But again, I think it has something to do with where they played in college. Wisconsin is a really good college program, but Ohio State competes for national titles. Ezekiel Elliott had hype from the time that he stepped foot on campus at Ohio State. You know, I heard about Jonathan Taylor some early on, but not quite like we heard about Ezekiel Elliott throughout his career. So I think that there are a lot of biases that just arise from college football in general. And I also think that the NFL gets a little bit smarter every year from the running back replaceability standpoint, So that hurts Jonathan Taylor too that you know, even just a couple of years ago when Ezekiel Elliott went that early, you know, the NFL has gotten a little bit smarter since then, and so that's gonna hurt where Jonathan Taylor is projected but yeah, I mean, look, I'm not sure why Zekee Elliott was a top five lock when he came out, and it seems like Jonathan Taylor would be lucky to go top forty at this point because as purely as prospects, I mean, they're very, very similar. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the consensus, like I just talked about, we have Swift and Taylor as the top two backs, then you're gonna see rankings, whether it's fantasy or otherwise that has JK. Dobbins, maybe Ceh Clyde, Edwards, Hilaire's there, Cam Akers, maybe even Zach Moss. Next, who do you have is your favorite out of that group? Maybe maybe talk about your least favorite out of that group as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I did a top one fifty rankings for redraft leagues and I have Jonathan Taylor as the RB twenty one right now. Obviously we don't know landing spots, and if Jonathan Taylor goes to a great you know, if he goes like in the thirty somewhere, to a spot where he can become an immediate feature back, like I could you know, envision Putt pushing him up to like RB twelve. So we're very early right here. DeAndre Swift is RB twenty three, and then I have a big gap, and then Clyde Edwards Hilaire at RB thirty four, then JK. Dobbins at RB thirty five, and Cam Akers is RB forty five, and you can and listeners can read all about that or the full top one fifty at established the erun dot com. But yeah, I love Clyde Edwards Hilaire's passing game skills. First of all, he can, he can block, He's an excellent like leakout route runner, and I think he can run between the tackles. I think that there's some Maurice Jones Drew to his game a little bit. I don't care at all about his height. I prefer my running back shorter and he's two oh seven, so he's not small. He's just short. So I don't consider that a weakness. And look, I think that a lot of it is going to depend upon exactly where in the draft he goes, because after he ran four to six, then you know, I think that that could negatively influence where he has actually taken in the draft, and the further in the draft, further down the draft that he has taken, the less likely it is it is going to be that he is considered like the you know, an immediate feature back. So I want to see him go like maybe in the fifties or sixties, and I'll feel a lot better about Clyde Edwards. Hilaire.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. The other thing too, you know, of those guys to me, I mean you mentioned it too. I think he has the best receiving skill set of those guys are arguably in the class. But the one interesting thing with him, like if you're drafting before the draft, like if you're doing a rookie draft before the NFL draft happens, he seems like a safer bet in general because he might not be as landing spot dependent to give you a floor. He'll give you he's landing spot. He's landing spot dependent to give you that ceilings. As you just noted that he might not have that or be able to be a workhorse right away because of what he did at the combine and if he does slip. But I do think that if you're drafting before the NFL draft happens, you're getting a player who's at the very least going to be a high quality satellite back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. I just I'm hoping that he gets an opportunity, you know, obviously more more like what Mary's Shones Drew got and less like like James White. You know, yeah, exactly. One interesting comparison that from Daniel Jeremiah was to Austin Eckler, and Austin Eckler is a guy that you know, really functioned as a lead back, I would, you know, not a feature back or a workhorse, but as a lead back this past season, and you know, kind of showed the lead. And I think that their skill sets are similar.

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Speaker 1: So you talked about Cech's size, that's not a big concern to you. Are you concerned at all about JK. Dobbins waigh in at the combine given he was under two ten.

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Speaker 2: A little bit because I think that his game is different than Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who caught fifty five passes last season. JK. Dobbins did catch seventy one in three years at Ohio State, so you know, that's pretty pretty darn good receiving production for a college running back. But I think that he is going he his game is different because he's more of you know, he's less of like a like a versatile flex route runner than Clyde Edwards Hilaire or you know, you can employ Clyde Edwards Hilaire like Austin Eckler at different areas in the field. JK. Dobbins is more of like a a traditional running back and so I wanted I would have liked him to be a little bit bigger, I mean, under two hundred and ten pounds as you know, a he sort of profiles theoretically as a workhorse back and I would have liked to have seen him in maybe the two fourteen or two nineteen range. So I do think it's a little bit of a concern. He we have no combine numbers on him aside from the bench press. But I think he's a good football player, and I think that he's probably gonna go on day two and he definitely checks the box for production. But yeah, I mean I think that that's one of the that's one of the red flags on his resume, you know, is he could he like he could he like Max Out as a No Sean Moreno sort of running back, you know, because I yeah, I mean he's he's a little bit on the small side a little bit. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Another thing that happened at the combine was Zach Moss's not so fast forty time. Before the combine happened, you had a lot of Kareem Hunt comps. But I think post combine, after seeing that, you're seeing more David Montgomery comps.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: So, I'm curious if that forty time first off matters. I know that he had a little bit of an injury, so that you know, so the forty time might not matter to you. But if it does, or if it doesn't, do you think that he is more on the David Montgomery side of things, or more on the Kareem Hunt side of things, or maybe neither.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that first of all, we should learn a lesson from comparing David Montgomery to Kareem Hunt. And even you know, people in the NFL did that as well. I think was it Matt Nage or Ryan Pace made comp I think it was Ryan Pace who made that comparison. Ryan Pace on a long losing streak here, But I mean, just think about what happened with Kareem Hunt. He was dropped into an optimal situation under Andy Reid. He caught every break in the book injuries to Spencer where and Damian Williams he got that opportunity and he bawled out. But I think that if we had dropped David Montgomery into that same situation, I think that David Montgomery probably would have crushed it too, Spencer where before Kareem Hunt was crushing it, Damian Williams has crushed it when healthy. Nile Davis even had moments in that offense before those guys. So the Kareem Hunt comparisons, you know, he's sort of like sort of like an outlier almost like you remember, for years everybody would compare every slow receiver to an Kwon Bolden or or every wide receiver converting to cornerback was the next Richard Sherman, right, you know, And these guys are just they're tough to make comparisons to because, you know, just because they're just, you know, kind of unique. And so I think that Zach Moss, Zach Moss is just like a landing spot and draft capital back. So if he goes like third round to the Chiefs, we're talking. If he goes fifth round to the Raiders, We're probably not talking. So I just think it's gonna come down to his draft capital and his landing spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's kind of the way I view him. I view other guys in this draft as well similarly, like a Keishan Vaughn, maybe yeah, if he ends up in a situation like that. But who are some of your favorite backs outside of that first round and rookie drafts type tire? Are you a fan in particular of AJ Dillon the complete freak of nature AJ Dillon?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? You know, I was big on Derrick Henry coming out, and it took a while for that to come together. But I do think that that's within AJ Dillon's range of outcomes. Obviously it's the peak outcome. I just don't think the AJ Dillon is ever going to get the opportunity that it's took three years for Derrick Henry to get, you know, the type, the type. I mean, they almost needed like a half decade to decide to use Derrick Henry as you know, a full time feature back. And I just don't think the AJ Dillon is ever going to get that chance. But but hey, if if he goes in the second round, I think we're talking. I just I don't think he's going to go in the second round. I think I like that you mentioned Keishawn Vaughn from Vanderbilt. I think he's pretty interesting. He's he's got a feature back build a little bit even more so than then JK. Dommis. At five ten two fourteen, he caught sixty six balls in college. He averaged six and a half yards per carry over his final two playing in the SEC. I think that when you watch him, he looks like a guy who is solid in every phase, but not like a sort of maybe a jack of many trades but not necessarily a master of one. But he's a good athlete with good size. He ran four or five to one at what two fifteen to two fourteen, and he could catch the ball. So yeah, I mean, I think he's another guy that's gonna really come down to landing spot and draft capital. But yeah, I absolutely have optimism right now on Keishn Bond, and I think that he could be a sleeper depending on where he goes.

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Speaker 1: Totally with you. He's actually before I input draft capital into my model because obviously we don't have draft capital yet. But he's actually my number two running back of my model right now, behind Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's how good. That's how good his numbers were at Vandy. Is there a projected later round running back you think might be able to jump into the middle rounds in the draft and become a little bit more fantasy relevant than expected.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that Antonio Gibson of Memphis stands out mostly because he's built like an NFL workhorse. At six foot two twenty eight, he runs four three nine. He scored fifteen touchdowns as a sort of like rotational player at Memphis, fifteen touchdowns over his final two seasons. You know, he was sharing the ball with Darrell Henderson and Tony Poller. Until this past year. He had forty four career catches, only thirty three rushing attempts, twenty four kickoff returns. You know. But I think that his hype, weight, speed, and where he's going to go in the draft, and I fully expect him to be a Day three pick, maybe like even fifth or sixth round. I think that he is pretty interesting. He just didn't get a ton of opportunity because there were other guys that are NFL players in the same backfield. But I mean, I like his his like all around game. I like, I always like skill position players that are coming into the NFL that had experience as return men in college. You know, Rodoviz did has done great work showing that that can be a plus two a prospects profile. And Antonio Gibson has that he I mean, he seems like sort of like a project, but he's just a guy that you want to get the ball in his hands and he can make he can make big plays happen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not unlike the same guy from the same school last year and Tony Pollard. I mean that that whole backfield, that that whole team over the last couple of years has just produced these like ultra efficient, really athletic kind of hybrid players. But if you can get a creative offensive coordinator to do something with those guys, that could maybe be pretty relevant and fantasy any other running backs who we haven't talked about that you don't think you're getting enough love in the class.

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Speaker 2: I think that if we're digging a little bit deeper. Garranton Evans from Appalachian State. Yes, he's yeah, he's he's two hundred and three pounds, so that's average size, but he ran four to four to one. He did twenty reps on the bench, so I mean he's you know, strong, thirty seven inch vertical is very good for a running for any running back, very productive as a receiver at APP State. I think he's probably a role player in the NFL, but I think that he could be a quite good one, depending on if he is able to land in a spot where he can get some opportunities. So, and I think that the running back class in general, it's unlike the wide receiver class in that the wide receiver class is just insanely deep. But the running back class is good, but I think it's super shallow. It's great at the top, but I think it falls off a cliff really quick, and then we're kind of just throwing darts at guys like Antonio Gibson and Darrington Evans.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, makes sense. My main comp for Evans is Nahim Heines. I think that's sort of the role that he might be able to play at the next level. Really versatile guy.

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Speaker 2: You know.

00:21:31
Speaker 1: Obviously Heines did a lot of kick returning and punt returning at NC State, both really fast. So but like Hines, you know, I do think, like you said, a guy like Evans is just going to have to find that spot where he can see a lot of that passing down work to have that floor in PPR formats, No question, Evan, it was great to talk to you man. As always, For those of you not following Evan on Twitter, which is likely zero of you, he's at Evans Silva and make sure that you're reading and listening to him over at Established the Run dot com. You can find me on Twitter to at Late Round QB and make sure you subscribe to this podcast, the Late Round podcast, pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.