573: 10 Trends for Week 9

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa Jay Jake zacher reson What's up Everyone? It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and seventy three of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in, Hey, football fans. The NFL season is in full swing as Week nine approaches, and fandle is giving you the opportunity to get in on the action. This week. The Fandle NFL Sunday Million Contest is a whopping one point seventy five million dollars, with first place taking home three hundred thousand dollars. All you have to do is head over to fandle today and click on the NFL Sunday Million Contest. Draft your lineup of players, sit back and enjoy Sunday NFL football. Go to fandle dot com today to participate, and the NFL Sunday Million eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Trend won this week is that Dallas Goddard saw a forty three point eight percent target chair for the Eagles on Sunday against the Lions. In two games now without zach Ertz, Goddard has scored twelve and thirteen PPR points without finding the end zone. He's hit seventy receiving yards in both contests, when he hadn't hit seventy in games played with Ertz all season long. This is similar to what we saw last season, and it was a reason I didn't like Dallas Goddard during draft season. Last year, Goddard had three top twelve performances. Two of those performances came without zach Ertz, and that was when Goddard played four games without Ertz. Goddard's a tight end one from here on out because of that trade. Over the last two weeks, the New York Jets have targeted their running backs on forty percent of their targeted attempts. Their season long average before those games so through Week six was eighteen percent. This is why I said on yesterday show that Michael Carter's recent production is not really sustainable. He's not going to keep seeing double digit targets per game. But it's a pretty crazy split, especially when you consider the team with the highest running back target share this season. The Lions are under a thirty percent target chair for the season. The Jets are at forty percent to their running backs over the last two games. Trend three is that the Rams wide receivers now have a seventy five point two percent target chair in the season. That's about four percentage points higher than the team in second, the Cincinnati Bengals. I'm bringing this up though, because the Rams are currently pacing to have the highest target share of any team since twenty eleven to the wide receiver position. The highest single season target share came in twenty fifteen from the New York Jets, when they targeted their wide receivers on seventy five percent of their targeted throws. That was when they had Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. But the Rams are currently higher than that, mostly because of Cooper Cup and Robert Woods, who have a combined fifty four point four percent target chair this year. Over the last two weeks, Alan Robinson has seen target shaars of twelve point nine percent in four thirteen point eight percent. Those are the two lowest target shaars of his season. Robinson only had two games throughout the entire twenty twenty season, whereas target shair dip below fifteen percent and he's already matched that. He still hasn't ranked higher than wide receiver forty seven in a given week this year. Last year he ranked that low just twice. If you haven't dropped Alan Robinson yet, you can probably do so, at least in most ten or twelve team leagues. Zach Moss has really been utilized as a pass catcher for Buffalo over the last three weeks. He's seen target shairs of sixteen points, seven percent, nine percent, and seventeen percent. He has fifteen targets over his last three games. That's just two fewer targets than Emmanuel Sanders during this time. He hasn't found the end zone over this stretch, but when he starts finding the touchdown column, he's going to really pay off. Within the context of the tight end position, Travis Kelsey's been fined this year. He's been a top seven weekly tight end in PPR formats in all but two games. Within the context of Travis Kelson, see, things haven't been as great. He's currently first in tight end points per game, but he's just point one points ahead of Mark Andrews Kelsey's given us two performances of single digit fantasy points scored this year. That happened only once throughout the entire twenty twenty season. I don't think Kelsey is toast. The Chiefs offense just isn't cooking like we've seen in recent seasons. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they're not producing as many explosive plays. Still treat Kelsey as the tight end one in fantasy, but he's not giving you the edge that he gave you last year. Jonathan Taylor has now had five straight top ten running back performances in PPR formats, and in Week eight his usage it got even better than it's been, at least on the ground. Through Week seven, Taylor at average a running back rush share of about sixty three percent. This past Sunday, that running back rush aair was ninety four percent. Let's hope that continues, because if it does, it could just completely solidify Jonathan Taylor as a top five guy in fantasy football. Without mark ingram on the Texans, we got zero clarity with that Houston backfield. There was a negative game script, so understand that things will change depending on that game script. But against the Rams, the highest running back rush are on the Texans, it came from Scottie Phillips. He saw about thirty five percent of the team's running back rushes. You can avoid this backfield until we see something drastically change. I wouldn't be overly worried about Mike Williams, but I think adjusting expectations compared to the first few weeks this season is more than reasonable. After having performances of twenty two, twenty two and thirty three PPR points during the first three weeks, Williams has given us just one relevant game over his last four. He's had a sub fifteen percent target share in three of those four games. I can't really recommend you go by him given the fact that the target shair actually has dipped. It's not like his peripherals are still really, really good. But I don't think this is what we should expect from Williams. It'll be somewhere in the middle of those first few games in these last four. So for now you've got a and unfortunately, he just doesn't look like the full blown wide receiver one that he looked like after Week three. The last trend this week is that Elijah Mitchell hasn't seen a target in each of his last two games, but he's finished as a top twelve PPR running back in both of those contests. Last week on the fifteen Transaction Show, my breakdown on Mitchell was that I saw Moore as an RB two and probably a lower end RB two. I still think that's generally the case from here on out. He had a great game against Chicago, and as I've said all along, I think he's a really good running back who fits Kyle Shanahan's offense well. But you have to ask yourself what happens when the forty nine ers are in an actual negative game script. What happens to Elijah Mitchell's workload. They've been fortunate to have been in good shape over the last couple of weeks in terms of gamescript, but in games where that script could go south, there's at least some worry. There's a lot of worry. Keep treating Mitchell as an RB two. I've seen some people say that he's an RB one, but I can't get behind that. His production over the last couple of weeks has been RB one type production. Yes, but he needs a better receiving role. To actually be in RB one at least in PPR formats. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. It don't forgets follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow