582: Week 11 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j.

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Speaker 2: J zacher reson What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zachar Eason, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and eighty two of the Late Round podcast the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: Last week's sleeper show wasn't so bad. I once again did a bad job looking at the high end players to bench where I called out Antonio Gibson as a sit and told you to temper expectation. With Patrick Mahomes, that was all given his recent performances. And I also missed on Jamison Crowder, Eo, Benjamin Zach Paskell, and Van Jefferson. But mark Ingram was obviously good. Without Alvin Kamara, Taylor Heineke ended up being the QB ten last week. Dan Arnold kept doing his thing, Jamal Agnew had a big touchdown, James Washington scored, Aman Ross Saint Brown had his second double digit point performance of the season, and both defenses were viable streamers. Not the best week in the world, but there were some good hits in there.

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Speaker 2: I'll take it. Before we get into this week's sleepers.

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Speaker 1: I want to remind you that each week FANDL was offering fans the chance to win prizes by participating in daily fantasy football on Sundays. The prize pool for this week Sunday Million is a whopping one point seventy five million dollars, with first place taking home three hundred thousand dollars. All you have to do is head over to fandel today and click on the NFL Sunday Million contest. Draft your lineup of players, sit back, and enjoy some football. Go to fandle dot com today to participate in the NFL Sunday Million. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandole dot com or download the fandle app for more details. The first tier are players that I talk about on this show are guys who are rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, so they're not super deep sleepers, but they should be available for a start for a good number of people listening to this show. Let's kick things off with Daniel Jones. I actually like another streamer more this week than Jones, but I'll get to that in a second.

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Speaker 2: But I like Danny.

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Speaker 1: I think that he works against Tampa Bay. The Bucks are the thirteenth best opponent for quarterbacks when it comes to justin fantasy points allowed this season. And then I'm intrigued by two other things with Jones. First, and what could easily be a negative game script, we may see him take off and scramble more. That's big for his fantasy value. Second, this is arguably the healthiest his weapons have been all season long. That could help him be more efficient through the air in order to keep pace with Tom Brady. So in this tier, I like Jones, But like I said, I've got another streamer who I like more this week. I talked about Deontay Foreman on the fifteen Transactions show earlier in the week, and I think he works this week if you're a little bit desperate. Not only did things flip in Week ten with him leading the backfield and rush attempts, but we've got a revenge game narrative. I don't actually care about that, but it's fun that he's playing against the team that drafted him back in twenty seventeen. What's really fun for Foreman is that the Titans are ten and a half point home favorites. A positive game script would lead to more rushing, and more rushing means more volume for Deontay Foreman in a plus matchup. Houston ranks tenth and adjustin points allowed to running backs this year. I've got Jeff Wilson on the list for this tier as well. Elijah Mitchell had surgery on a fractured finger on Monday, though he could still play this weekend. If he doesn't, Jeff Wilson could be in store for a bigger workload. The Jags are pretty average against the run. They're better than you'd probably expect, though. They bring sixteenth in success rate allowed to running backs. That's according to number fires Expected points model, and then the twelfth best matchup when looking into justin fantasy points allowed. Wilson was thrown into the forty nine ers offense more this past week with a twenty seven percent running back rush share, and I'd trust him over Trey Sermon if Elijah Mitchell doesn't go. I talked about Robbie Anderson on yesterday's show, and he's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 2: This week. We've got Cam Newton back.

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Speaker 1: And under center for Carolina, so there may be different tendencies within the offense. In fact, we should probably expect there to be different tendencies. Anderson last week without Darnold had a respectable nineteen percent target chair and he found the end zone. Now he gets a Washington second that's been third best for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed, despite an adjusted target share allowed ranking thirteenth, Meaning wide receivers are being targeted against Washington at a pretty normal rate, just an above average rate, but they're doing really well against them. So Anderson is incredibly risky given what he's done this year, but as a sleeper, I don't mind him.

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Speaker 2: And then I've been talking about.

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Speaker 1: Dan Arnold forever on this show, so let's not use him as a streamer this week. You all know to add him and use him instead. I think Tyler Conklin makes a ton of sense. He's had double digit PPR points in three of his last four and in eighteen percent target share per game during this time. He's averaged six targets per game over his last four. Now he gets the Packers. Green Bay is eighth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends and their seventh and adjusted points a lot.

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Speaker 2: Of the position.

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Speaker 1: So I think Conklin makes a lot of sense as a streamer in this tier. The next tier of players are rostered in about ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues. And this is where I'm going to talk about my top quarterback streamer, Tua Tongue of Ioloa. I talked up Tu on Tuesday's fifteen Transaction Show, and I think you have to love him against the Jets this week. Tua has started and finished just four games this year. In two of those games, he faced New England and Buffalo, two really tough matchups. He scored sixteen and fifteen fantasy points against them, though, which is not really that bad. In his other two he had two plus matchups against Atlanta and Jacksonville. He scored twenty one point four and twenty six point five points in those two games. The Jets ranked ninth and Adjust appoints a lot of quarterbacks this year, so Tua makes a lot of sense. As a result, It's really tough to find reasonable running backs for this show, but I want to at least include some, So let's talk about Wayne Gallman. There's a chance at Cordero Patterson plays against New England on Thursday night, but if he's out Gallman should be in store for some work. I'd expect Mike Davis to see an uptick in volume, but Davis has seen his workload drop pretty significantly since the first few weeks of the season. I do think Gollman is more of a desperation play than anything else, though they likely used him last week because of Patterson's injury, combined with them having a short week and it being a blowout. They got crushed by the Cowboys, so temper expectations. He's just a running back who you could consider starting if you're in a pinch. We learned on Wednesday that Joe Flacco is going to start for the Jets this week, and no, I'm not recommending him as a streamer. I'm gonna go back to Jamison Crowder though. He continues to play the majority of his snaps from the slot, and that's the matchup to exploit Against Miami. The Dolphins rank first and slot targets allowed, slot receptions allowed, percentage of targets that go to that area of the field slot yards allowed. They've been the team in football this year that's been worse against the slot, so Crowder could benefit big time from this matchup. Over the last three weeks, Kendrick Bourne has seen target shares of twenty point six percent, twenty two point two percent, and sixteen percent. His highest target share in a single game from Week one through week seven, so before this stretch was fifteen point seven percent. He was usually in the ten to twelve percent range. He's still not running more routes than Jacoby Myers and Nelson Agalore, so not all of his peripherals are getting better, but I think he's worth a dart throw this week given the matchup in his uptick and target share.

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Speaker 2: Atlanta has been the twelfth best.

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Speaker 1: Matchup for wide receivers this year, and justin fantasy points allowed, and if you want a big play which Kendrick Bourne can create, the Falcons are sixth and deep ball completion rate allowed. Someone like Jacoby Myers is a safer play than Kendrick Bourne, but I'd prefer Born to Agalore given his recent performances. And then the final player in this year that I want to talk about is Marcus Johnson. I mentioned Johnson as the sixteenth transaction this week on the fifteen Transaction Show because he's been playing as the Titans' number two wide receiver without Julio Jones this year, Johnson's been active for three games where Julio Jones didn't play. In those games, he sell target shairs of twenty three point eight percent, fifteen point six percent, and twenty two point two percent. He averaged a five targets per game in those contests. Now he gets Houston in a game where the Titans have a twenty seven and a half point imply team total. So I think he makes a lot of sense as a sleeper this week. The last tier was pretty tough for me this week. I'm not gonna lie. Some weeks, there are a lot of players that are rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues that you can play, But this week I don't have as much confidence. Let's start with the player who has talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, though, and that's Adam Troutman. Troutman's seen his route participation jump over the last few weeks, and he's averaged a seventeen percent target chair per game as a result, that's turned into six, seven and six targets over his last three Now he gets Philadelphia. The Eagles have been strong against wide receivers this year, but they rank fourth and adjusted target chair allowed to tight ends and first, and adjusted points a lot to the position. So giving up a lot of looks to the position and the position is scoring a lot of fantasy points against them. That makes Troutman a nice deep sleeper. In that same game, let's go to Watkins. The biggest issue for any Eagles pass catcher is volume. Right since that Detroit game, they've been running the ball a lot more. Over the last three weeks. Jalen Hurts has averaged just eighteen pass attempts per game. Now can they do that against New Orleans? I'm not so sure. At least it wouldn't be smart to just run the ball against them, because they can stop the run. Opposing offenses have had a pass rate that's ninth highest in the league this season against the Saints, So if Philly throws the ball a little bit more, that could help Watkins. He's averaged in eighteen and a half percent target share per game over his last five There's nothing wrong with that. That's fine for a deeper play like this, and he's played seventy percent of his snaps from the slot this season. New Orleans, meanwhile, they ranked third in target share allowed to the slot this year. Is he a deep play Yeah, of course, but there's at least some logic to using him in deep formats. And then the last player in this tier is another player with Ques in his name, Marquez Vowdez Scantling. In Week ten, MVS ran more routes than Allen Lazard, which it was different than in Week nine when he was coming back from his injury. He still hasn't seen very strong target shaars over his last two so this is definitely a hail mary attempt. But we know that MVS is a deep ball guy. He's a big play wide receiver. That's how Green Bay uses him well. Minnesota, his opponent ranks fourth and fifteen plus air yard rate, meaning a high percentage of the throws that they face this year have gone fifteen or more air yards. Maybe MVS can break one this week and pay off. I'd prefer going to someone like Ques Watkins if you want more of a floor, and honestly, he's probably got a similar ceiling. But it's a tough week for these deep sleepers. I'm trying to associate players who get snaps in decent game environments with good quarterbacks and that's what we get with Voudas Scanling. Let's talk about four players you can consider Benching who are rostered in seventy five percent or more of Yahoo leagues. I've been really hit or miss with this section over the last month, so hopefully I'm more hit this week than miss. I just talked about mvs and in that game as Kirk, I think Cousins is fine enough, but Green Bay's defense has been playing really well. They're currently a fringe bottom five matchup for quarterbacks when looking at justin fantasy points allowed, and they've only given up two top twelve performances this year. One of those came in Week one. The Vikings are also regression candidates. They've got a pass to rush touchdown ratio this year four point five that.

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Speaker 2: Leads the league.

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Speaker 1: If that hits a more median outcome, then more of their touchdowns will become ground touchdowns, and that would hurt Kirk Cousins. Zach Moss saw just forty one percent of the team's running back rushes and was held without a target.

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Speaker 2: This past week.

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Speaker 1: Matt Brido was in on the action. He stole some work through the air. I just don't know how you can confidently trust Moss now as a result, like it wouldn't surprise me if he comes out and he sees a similar share that he had been seeing before his concussion, and maybe the concussion had something to do with his usage this past week. But Indianapolis is also twenty seventh and adjusted points allowed to running backs, so the matchup isn't phenomenal either. Now, it's pretty tough to fin running backs in this range to bench.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie, but.

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Speaker 1: I think there's some reason to be a little bit skeptical with Michael Carter this week. I talked about it on yesterday's ten Trend show. But with Mike White under center, the Jets have been targeting their running backs at almost a forty percent rate, which is absolutely absurd. With Flacco in the mix, that might change, and that would bring a lower floor for Michael Carter. I think he's fine enough because it's hard to find volume at the position, but there may actually end up being less upside for Carter this week with the quarterback change. And then finally, I'm gonna go to Alan Robinson again. He had the best performance of a season against Pittsburgh the last time that we saw the Bears, but he still had just six targets and ten point eight PPR points. Baltimore is a below average matchup for wide receivers and that game could see fewer plays run in general, given how run heavy both teams are. If Robinson is able to build off of his Week nine performance, great, you know you have another option potentially moving forward.

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Speaker 2: But I wouldn't risk it this week.

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Speaker 1: As for the defense streams, I already talked about Miami earlier this week going up against New York, and I still like them with Joe Flacco under center. Don't overthink it. If you want a deeper play, though, you could go to the Chargers against Pittsburgh. At the time of this recording, I don't know for sure who's going to be starting for Pittsburgh at quarterback, but I think regardless, you can feel good that the Chargers can defend them. Their secondaries played well all season long, and even though they can't stop the run.

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Speaker 2: Don't confuse a good run game with a good running back.

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Speaker 1: Najie Harris is great, but the Steelers' run game is still below average according to Number fiveres expected points model Fandel Sports. Because the Chargers is pretty big home favorites and NAT makes them a reasonable streamer. That's going to do it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. One more show this week everyone, the Mailbag episode that'll drop tomorrow. I'll talk to you then,