Uber-Manliness

Jacob Smulian:
00:00:04
Hello and welcome to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:07
I am your editor and apparently intro maker Jacob Mian.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:13
Um, this is a super fun episode.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:16
The cousins are unpacking the US' response to Iran's attack on Israel.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:21
Um, they are diving into whether or not deterrence is a credible strategy anymore.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:27
And then the topic we've all been waiting for.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:31
Taylor Swift's geopolitical reach.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:33
So the world is messy.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:35
It's raining outside.
Jacob Smulian:
00:00:37
Get off your phone, go touch some grass and let's get into it.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:48
Alright, listeners, Marco is up at, is it four
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:50
20 or five 20 in the morning?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:52
Marco?
Marko Papic:
00:00:52
It is five 20.
Marko Papic:
00:00:53
Five plane.
Marko Papic:
00:00:54
Okay,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:54
four.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:55
Four would would be uncivilized.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:57
Five is at least in the realm of civilization,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:00:59
although it's still not good.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:00
Uh, everybody admires your dedication for being here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:02
It's nice to see you.
Marko Papic:
00:01:03
Well, first of all, uh, this is the life of a strategist.
Marko Papic:
00:01:06
It's 24 hours.
Marko Papic:
00:01:07
You know, you've got clients, uh, requesting a call at
like 3 00:01:10
00 AM in the morning.
like 3 00:01:12
Uh, it's also a life of someone who lives on the West Coast.
like 3 00:01:14
This is how the rest of you.
like 3 00:01:16
Punish us for living in, uh, on the Pacific, uh, coast.
like 3 00:01:21
And then finally, uh, if you want to achieve absurd levels of manliness,
like 3 00:01:26
you do have to wake up early to bench press, and we will get to
like 3 00:01:29
this a little bit later, I believe.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:32
Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:32
From, from Canadian nationalism to, uh, Uber Manliness.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:36
Uh, let's just start right there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:38
So this was sparked by an article BBC had it, but there's a bunch
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:41
of different, um, uh, bunch of different articles around this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:44
Uh, we're gonna be talking about Father Moses McPherson, whose congregation
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:49
has tripled in size in the last I.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:51
18 months.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:52
He lives in Georgetown, Texas, just a little bit north of Austin, Texas,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:57
the city where Marco and I met also.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:01:59
Uh, it's funny, I was thinking, I didn't even tell you this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:01
Marco uh, Gordon Ramsey did like a kitchen nightmares episode in Georgetown, Texas.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:05
And this is like a, I don't know, spiritual life nightmares
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:08
is what this guy does.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:09
I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:09
He like goes into your house and yells at you and tells you what to do Anyway.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:13
Uh, so he, uh, this guy Father Moses, he was a Protestant who
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:19
worked as a roofer, but now he's a priest in the Russian Orthodox
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:22
Church outside of Russia or RO car.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:25
I dunno if they call it that, but that's what their acronym is.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:27
Acronym is here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:29
Um, and I mean the, the BBC article has just, whoever wrote this
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:32
article must have had a ton of fun because it leads off with a quote.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:35
A lot of people ask me, father Moses, how can I increase my
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:38
manliness to absurd levels?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:40
End quote.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:41
Um, and he has a whole YouTube video as championing a form of veal
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:45
unapologetic masculinity, uh, with which.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:49
Sort of confusingly Marco includes skinny jeans, crossing your
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:52
legs, using an iron, shaping your eyebrows, and, and eating soup.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:56
These are all things that are too feminine.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:58
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:59
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:02:59
These are like, you know.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:00
Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:01
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:01
So he, he's saying that these things are too, uh, too feminine.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:04
Uh, he's gotten 75 new followers, uh, which doesn't seem like a
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:08
lot in 18 months, but whatever.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:09
Like, that's more than zero followers.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:11
He, I wonder if he has a podcast, he, he can claim that he, uh,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:14
tripled it in size anyway.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:16
Um, it also, it literally seems like a plot.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:18
I don't know if you've seen the righteous gemstones on HBO.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:22
It's like a, like I'm watching it with my wife right now, which is about these
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:25
like us mega, it's like, it's about a us mega church and John Goodman is the pastor
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:29
and he's got all these silly children.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:31
One of the kids, like the youngest one of the kids, seems like a closeted gay guy.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:35
And he's, he's assembled this like army of muscular men and he's like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:40
teaching them how to like, uh, be with Christ, but also like, like literally
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:43
they're training to carry the cross through the Judean desert itself.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:47
And like they have to eat nice and like lift a bunch of
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:49
weights and things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:50
And I turned to my wife and I was like, 'cause she grew up
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:52
in the, in the Baptist world.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:53
And I was like, is this real?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:54
Like, do people do this?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:55
And she was like, nah, nah, this is a joke.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:57
But it's not a joke.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:03:58
'cause here's Father Moses saying we have to increase our levels of manliness.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:02
Um, you know, Skyward.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:04
So I'll let you cook from there, Marco.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:06
'cause we are gonna make this serious in a second.
Marko Papic:
00:04:09
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:04:09
So I think, um.
Marko Papic:
00:04:12
First of all, I am Orthodox and I can tell Why didn't
Jacob Shapiro:
00:04:15
that?
Marko Papic:
00:04:15
Yeah, we, I mean, you know, serves, serves our Orthodox
Marko Papic:
00:04:18
and we definitely eat soup.
Marko Papic:
00:04:20
In fact, when I was, uh, young, my grandmother who had herself observed
Marko Papic:
00:04:26
levels of manliness, just FYI, so she would like force feed me soup.
Marko Papic:
00:04:32
Before the meal, it was like, if you didn't eat soup, this
Marko Papic:
00:04:35
was like obsession of Serbian grandmothers was to feed you soup.
Marko Papic:
00:04:39
So I don't understand why soup in the American version of, uh, Russian
Marko Papic:
00:04:45
orthodoxy is, um, is not manly.
Marko Papic:
00:04:49
But, uh, so first of all, for those of you who don't know, um, Christianity
Marko Papic:
00:04:53
has many different denominations.
Marko Papic:
00:04:55
The two main ones before Martin Luther came along and like protested the
Marko Papic:
00:04:59
two, um, were Catholic and Orthodox, uh, roughly split along the borders
Marko Papic:
00:05:06
effectively of the Byzantine Empire.
Marko Papic:
00:05:10
Uh, and the difference between the two, and this is important 'cause a
Marko Papic:
00:05:12
lot of people don't understand it.
Marko Papic:
00:05:14
Uh, whenever I say I'm Orthodox, they're like, oh, you're Russian Orthodox.
Marko Papic:
00:05:18
It's like, no, no, that's not how it works.
Marko Papic:
00:05:21
Um, in the eastern part of Europe, uh, most countries basically have
Marko Papic:
00:05:26
their own, uh, orthodox religion.
Marko Papic:
00:05:30
So think of it the way that Anglicans, for example, exist.
Marko Papic:
00:05:33
Um, you know, it, it's much more associated with the state
Marko Papic:
00:05:36
itself, the nation state.
Marko Papic:
00:05:38
And so you have Armenian Orthodox, you have Bulgarian Orthodox, you
Marko Papic:
00:05:42
have Russian Orthodox, uh, do not have, of course Ukrainian Orthodox,
Marko Papic:
00:05:46
which was controversial, um, Serbian Orthodox, uh, and so on and so on.
Marko Papic:
00:05:51
Greek Orthodox, of course, also very important.
Marko Papic:
00:05:53
You have several other denominations and they're all, um, essentially equal.
Marko Papic:
00:05:59
Although the Archbishop of Constantinople is still like Titularly.
Marko Papic:
00:06:05
Uh, above all of them, you know, uh, but, but not really.
Marko Papic:
00:06:09
They're, they're pretty much all equal.
Marko Papic:
00:06:10
So each one of these groups has its own pope.
Marko Papic:
00:06:14
Uh, anyways, this particular offshoot in the US that's gaining a lot of,
Marko Papic:
00:06:19
uh, uh, followers is the Russian Orthodox Church outside of Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:06:25
So the diocese, I guess, would what be, what we would call it, is it's an
Marko Papic:
00:06:30
offshoot of the Russian, uh, church.
Marko Papic:
00:06:32
It's not the American Orthodox Church, which I actually also believe exists.
Marko Papic:
00:06:36
Um, anyways, long story short, um, because, uh, Russia's so manly,
Marko Papic:
00:06:41
you know, um, there is, I guess, appeal, um, for people to join
Marko Papic:
00:06:48
this Russian Orthodox Church.
Marko Papic:
00:06:49
And I thought that was really interesting because later embedded in this article,
Marko Papic:
00:06:55
um, is basically this interesting link.
Marko Papic:
00:07:01
Um, to a web, to a website run by the, I think, Russian Ministry of Foreign
Marko Papic:
00:07:07
Affairs, where you can go and get a visa.
Marko Papic:
00:07:13
You can get a visa for, um, join, uh, for basically residency in Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:07:19
Uh, that's a path to permanent residency for like-minded
Marko Papic:
00:07:23
individuals from countries.
Marko Papic:
00:07:25
And they list the countries and the countries are effectively
Marko Papic:
00:07:28
all from, um, from the west.
Marko Papic:
00:07:32
Um, it's not like any Russia adjacent countries.
Marko Papic:
00:07:37
Um, it's just targeted towards the west to attract immigrants, like
Marko Papic:
00:07:42
wine minded, conservative, you know, people who believed in manliness.
Marko Papic:
00:07:47
Is, I guess, not eating soup and not wearing skinny jeans, obviously,
Marko Papic:
00:07:52
even though one would argue perhaps that you have to be, you have to
Marko Papic:
00:07:55
achieve giga levels of manliness to pull off skinny jeans in 2025.
Marko Papic:
00:08:01
That's, you know, some would say that, some would say that's how you
Marko Papic:
00:08:05
achieve giga, levels of manliness.
Marko Papic:
00:08:07
But yeah, so like the Russian foreign ministry has this website, um, and this
Marko Papic:
00:08:10
visa program that allows you to join, uh, basically Russia and get, uh, residency.
Marko Papic:
00:08:15
And it was in this article, I guess because, uh, you know, it's,
Marko Papic:
00:08:19
it's this whole wave that's now, uh, started, uh, it's on YouTube.
Marko Papic:
00:08:24
It's a guess in the Russian Orthodox, uh, offshoot of Russia standing as a bulwark
Marko Papic:
00:08:30
for Western, uh, traditional values.
Marko Papic:
00:08:35
Um.
Marko Papic:
00:08:37
I don't know what to say about that.
Marko Papic:
00:08:38
It seems weird.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:41
Well, yeah, it's called, it is called the shared
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:43
values visa, which is remarkable.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:45
And it's like got pictures of like a ballerina and like beautiful, you know,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:50
uh, beautiful scenery inside Russia.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:52
I don't see any pictures of like, Siberia here, for example.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:55
It's like some beautiful, like rock fixture in the middle of a lake.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:08:58
Um, I, I think there are like a couple interesting things here.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:01
The first is like the history of the Russian Orthodox Church in general, um,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:06
is actually extremely geopolitical and it's, it's really relevant to, to Vladimir
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:11
Putin and all the things that he's done.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:12
And Vladimir Putin, you can kind of tell is obsessed with
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:15
this idea of manliness too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:17
Not just conservativeness, but manliness.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:19
Like always needing to be out with his shirt off, riding the horses,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:22
like jumping in the cold water.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:23
Like he's always had to project this image of being super manly
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:27
and super strong all the time.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:29
Um.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:30
And I think part of it is that for most of the 20th century, the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:34
Russian Orthodox Church was on the outs with the Russian government.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:37
The Russian Orthodox Church had really deep ties with the Czars, and it was sort
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:41
of the Czars and the Russian Orthodox Church, like, I don't know, like governed
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:44
as a little bit too strong, but they worked hand in hand to maintain Russia.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:48
Uh, but the communist wanted nothing to do with religion.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:51
Uh, I'll, I'll, I'll take a, a Lenin quote here outta my bag that he wrote in 1905.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:55
Quote.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:09:56
Religion is a kind of spiritual gin in which the slaves of capital
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:00
drown their human shape and their claims to any decent human life.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:03
End quote.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:04
Probably Lenin would be eating soup and, uh, in, in skinny jeans in Moscow right
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:08
now as he's, as he's blogging that.
Marko Papic:
00:10:11
Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:12
Um, and like, I don't know when the, when the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:14
communists first take power, there's sort of this uneasy relationship
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:17
with the Russian Orthodox Church.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:18
Um, the Russian Orthodox Church is allowed to rally Russian patriotism in World War
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:23
II and the fight against Nazi Germany.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:25
But in 59 Khrushchev basically says no more.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:28
We are gonna be a real communist, basically atheist state.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:32
And the Russian Orthodox Church sort of has to go underground and Putin turns
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:36
that around when he takes power and when he's trying to sort of rebuild
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:40
a sense of Russian nationalism.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:42
He really does inject the Russian Orthodox Church, um, with a lot more
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:47
importance and gives them free reign.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:49
And sort of the same way he gave ProGo free reign with
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:51
the, um, with the mercenaries.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:53
He gave the Russian Orthodox Church free reign to go about and spread,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:10:57
uh, as you sort of say Russia's values throughout the Orthodox world.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:00
And apparently he's trying to spread it throughout.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:03
Of the United States too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:04
I, I don't think it's gonna do that much in the United States.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:07
Um, but you know, like, uh, there was some Pew data that showed that,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:12
uh, you know, Orthodox Christians in the United States are 64% male,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:16
which is up from 46% in 2007.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:19
So, so something is happening like men are flocking, uh, to this Orthodox
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:24
church in some meaningful way.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:26
And I guess.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:26
I guess he's articulating something.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:28
I find the description of his, of Father Moses and this particularly
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:32
masculine orthodoxy that he's describing, pretty boring.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:36
He is like saying you can either, you can serve God by being a nun
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:40
or a monk or by getting married.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:42
Uh, he says you should not use any birth control.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:44
Masturbation is pathetic and unmanly.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:47
Uh, he doesn't want his services to feel like a Taylor Swift concert.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:50
Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:51
Um, he says The look at the language of worship music, it's all emotion.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:55
That's not men.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:56
Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:56
Bullshit.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:57
Uh, but fine.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:11:57
Like, it's just, it's just like very sort of normal, retrograde,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:01
patriarchal, conservative, like fluff.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:04
But I guess that's what people want.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:05
I don't know.
Marko Papic:
00:12:06
So there's, there's a couple of things where we can take
Marko Papic:
00:12:08
this and I definitely wanna take it to the visa, uh, the value visa that
Marko Papic:
00:12:12
Russia has, which is fascinating.
Marko Papic:
00:12:14
Uh, you know, I encourage everyone to go to the website.
Marko Papic:
00:12:17
Uh, I mean, BBC does as well, which, which
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:21
that was funny to go to the website.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:23
We do not, we do not suggest that you apply for the Russian value visa, or I
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:26
guess you could do whatever you want.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:12:27
Y'all are all, you
Marko Papic:
00:12:27
do whatever you want.
Marko Papic:
00:12:28
I mean, why not?
Marko Papic:
00:12:29
Like it's a free market.
Marko Papic:
00:12:31
Um, I guess, and just the pictures that they show ballerina, the cre uh, the
Marko Papic:
00:12:36
Kremlin, um, and also just this like picture of a family that got from, from
Marko Papic:
00:12:43
like a stock photo, um, of just, you know, a man holding a baby, a woman holding a
Marko Papic:
00:12:49
child, and they're holding hands, running through, I guess wheat fields in Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:12:53
So, um, couple of things.
Marko Papic:
00:12:56
First of all, I do think that men and boys are, are clearly lost.
Marko Papic:
00:13:02
There's a great book by Richard Reeves called Of Boys and Men, which
Marko Papic:
00:13:06
I would encourage ev everyone to read.
Marko Papic:
00:13:09
And in fact, effectively it argues that, um, it know one
Marko Papic:
00:13:12
of the problems is that, um.
Marko Papic:
00:13:16
Just genetically speaking and biologically speaking, women and girls
Marko Papic:
00:13:21
develop faster than men mentally.
Marko Papic:
00:13:24
Um, and so what happens in competition in education is that quite often
Marko Papic:
00:13:29
girls are going to outperform boys.
Marko Papic:
00:13:32
Now, in the past, the way that we, uh, didn't allow this to happen is we, what's
Marko Papic:
00:13:38
the word, discriminated against women.
Marko Papic:
00:13:40
That's right.
Marko Papic:
00:13:41
That was their solution for thousands of years of human history.
Marko Papic:
00:13:45
We basically just discriminated women.
Marko Papic:
00:13:47
Um, but because we don't actually do that anymore, or not to like the extent it
Marko Papic:
00:13:52
happened in the past, what's showing up in test scores, in educational results,
Marko Papic:
00:13:58
in job opportunities, especially in a heavy service oriented economy, is the
Marko Papic:
00:14:03
fact that, you know, girls Rule as the first chapter of the book is titled.
Marko Papic:
00:14:08
Now, Richard Reeves is not some right wing ideologue.
Marko Papic:
00:14:11
Um, he's actually, um, I think, uh, what is he exactly?
Marko Papic:
00:14:15
Um, I don't think he's just an author.
Marko Papic:
00:14:19
Uh oh, no, he is, um, he is a social scientist, senior fellow at the
Marko Papic:
00:14:25
Brooking I institution, president of the American Institute for Boys and Men.
Marko Papic:
00:14:29
Um, which I have to say sounds weird.
Marko Papic:
00:14:32
Uh, has a PhD, I think in, um, oh, a geography.
Marko Papic:
00:14:38
Uh, interesting, interesting path to write about this.
Marko Papic:
00:14:40
But, you know, he's not, uh, I mean, you know, he works for the
Marko Papic:
00:14:43
Brookings Institution, like he's, he's not some weird YouTube show
Marko Papic:
00:14:48
or a podcaster, if you will.
Marko Papic:
00:14:51
Um, and so his book is not some sort of call to go back in time.
Marko Papic:
00:14:55
He's just trying to fix this, uh, this issue that's coming up.
Marko Papic:
00:14:59
And then nobody is very comfortable talking about, you're
Marko Papic:
00:15:02
not comfortable talking about it, because if you talk about.
Marko Papic:
00:15:06
Boys and men falling behind, you're somehow anti-feminist.
Marko Papic:
00:15:10
You know, and I think one of the most interesting thing that Reeves argues
Marko Papic:
00:15:14
is that that's not the case at all.
Marko Papic:
00:15:15
You can be a feminist and you can also just identify ways in which
Marko Papic:
00:15:20
men and boys in today's modern society are starting to fall behind.
Marko Papic:
00:15:23
But why do I bring this book up?
Marko Papic:
00:15:25
I bring this book up, first of all, because it's an interesting one, and
Marko Papic:
00:15:27
I like reading different perspectives.
Marko Papic:
00:15:29
But diff the other issue is that, um, Reeves is right, and that's why there's
Marko Papic:
00:15:35
such appeal to new forms of achieving uber manliness, you know, in a world where boys
Marko Papic:
00:15:45
fall behind the school, uh, and then end up, you know, um, you know, facing law
Marko Papic:
00:15:50
schools and medical schools where a vast majority are not women, uh, who graduate
Marko Papic:
00:15:55
from those programs, which is fine.
Marko Papic:
00:15:56
Like that's all good and, and fine.
Marko Papic:
00:15:58
But like the point is there is.
Marko Papic:
00:16:01
There is something missing.
Marko Papic:
00:16:03
And I think it's being filled increasingly by ideologies and new
Marko Papic:
00:16:09
religious cults or new religions, uh, and new appeals to how to become a man,
Marko Papic:
00:16:15
you know, new, new sort of, uh, ways.
Marko Papic:
00:16:17
And I think it's an interesting point that I don't think we've all
Marko Papic:
00:16:22
accepted as the source of the new ideological tensions in the world.
Marko Papic:
00:16:28
I think that's something that like, is not being discussed enough.
Marko Papic:
00:16:31
In other words, we're in a post-industrial society, this appeal of bringing
Marko Papic:
00:16:35
back manufacturing to the us there's part of it that makes sense from
Marko Papic:
00:16:39
a national security perspective.
Marko Papic:
00:16:40
You should be able to build cars if you one day have to build tanks.
Marko Papic:
00:16:43
Okay.
Marko Papic:
00:16:44
Steel, aluminum, I get it.
Marko Papic:
00:16:46
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:16:47
Steel aluminum are really important in a war.
Marko Papic:
00:16:49
So there are ways to justify, you know, tariffs through national security.
Marko Papic:
00:16:53
But when you start asking for bicycles and like, you know.
Marko Papic:
00:16:59
I don't know, like toaster ovens to be built in America.
Marko Papic:
00:17:01
You have to step back and be like, okay, well what is this about?
Marko Papic:
00:17:04
And then you realize, well, it's about the fact that, you know, for
Marko Papic:
00:17:07
a lot of men who are not very well educated and can't really do service
Marko Papic:
00:17:12
jobs, um, what is there to do?
Marko Papic:
00:17:17
So I do think that this, this issue, this socio, you know, biological
Marko Papic:
00:17:22
issue that we have in our society of men and boys falling behind in 2025
Marko Papic:
00:17:28
is not just a silly sort of a meme.
Marko Papic:
00:17:32
It's also underpinning a lot of the, uh, policies that are
Marko Papic:
00:17:36
being shaped by right of center.
Marko Papic:
00:17:38
Um.
Marko Papic:
00:17:39
Parties across the world.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:42
Yeah, we, we talked about Israel Palestine last time, so now we're
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:44
gonna talk about, uh, the, you know, this, uh, we're, we're just flirting with the,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:49
with cancel stuff all over the place.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:50
I, it, it's funny, I think there's a lot of different things you can attribute
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:54
this to, and I don't know which one it is.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:57
I'm, I feel like it's a cop out to say, oh, it's all of them,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:17:59
but maybe it's just all of them.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:01
But like, on my list of things that could be driving this, um.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:05
Uh, there's a couple different ones.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:06
Number one is just like the sort of with the, with the, with the end of the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:09
Cold War and the victory of capitalism.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:12
Like we can go back to, to Lenin and the gin of the masses and just say
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:16
like, yeah, like all of this, like Godlessness and just consumer culture
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:20
and bye byebye, and do whatever you want.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:21
Like there is like a moral center that seems to have gone away.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:24
And if you look at decades of declining religious rates.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:28
Um, like that's in there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:29
It could also be driven by the internet.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:31
Like people are not hanging out in person anymore.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:34
They're hanging out and playing video games.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:35
They're, they're not, uh, when George Kennon was writing in the 1950s about how
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:39
much better the United States is in the Soviet Union, one of his key indicators
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:42
was Americans hang out with each other.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:44
They go to bowling leagues.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:45
They have like natural affiliations and institutions where they do stuff
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:49
together and they're not worried about the KGB taking and, you know, arresting
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:52
them and putting them in the gulag.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:54
They just want to go bowl and like do whatever they wanna do.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:18:56
Like that has really gone away, uh, manufacturing and agriculture, like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:01
two of the manliest jobs out there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:02
Even if you are making bikes like steel and aluminum, really manly,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:05
being in the field doing stuff like really manly doing stuff with
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:08
elec, uh, electrician work like.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:11
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:11
You know, all that, all those jobs have gone away and they've
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:14
been considered bad and they've sort of been considered low end.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:17
And as to your point, the manufacturing jobs are not even really there anymore.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:20
I wonder if the university has something to do with this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:23
Um, and you can see, I think with the way that MAGA is cool with the, the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:27
Trump administration literally shooting the United States in its own foot,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:31
like I really do think 10 years from now, when we talk about the long-term
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:34
impact of the Trump administration, the attack on US universities that is
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:37
happening right now is gonna be the.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:39
Biggest thing that negatively impacts the US going forward.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:42
But you can feel in how the MAGA movement treats, um, the academy, that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:46
they think there is something wimpy, whether it's critical race theory
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:50
or, you know, all these other things.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:51
Like there's something there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:52
And I would tie that to the issue of manliness with, you know, it used to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:55
be, um, that only the, not the best and the brightest that the upper
Jacob Shapiro:
00:19:59
crust of society went to university.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:01
Like university was finishing school for the men of the aristocracy
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:06
or for the upper classes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:07
Like people like Franklin Delano Roosevelt went to university because it was sort
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:10
of, oh, you were on the short list of somebody that could run the country.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:13
I think for better mostly, but for better and for worse, like the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:16
university has been democratized.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:18
Not only can anybody go to university, everybody should go to university.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:22
And we'll tip the scale so that no matter where you are, how intelligent
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:25
you are, everybody deserves the same chance to go to university and get
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:28
a liberal arts degree, even though that's not necessarily what you need.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:30
So I think that's in there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:31
And then feminism is in there too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:33
And women saw women wanted to have money of their own.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:36
They wanted to have careers of their own.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:38
Uh, I always crib from um, Christopher Hitchens who said, if you want the,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:42
the most surefire way to cure poverty in the world, empower women, give them
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:47
access, like, and give them power of their, their own biological clock.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:50
Every single society that has done that, um, has enriched itself massively, uh,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:55
going forward, which actually cuts against this idea that Russia shared values, the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:20:59
woman has to go back into the house and breed while the men do manly things and,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:03
and build things and stuff like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:05
There's an interesting juxtaposition there too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:07
And then, I know I'm rambling, but the last thing is just,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:09
it's also not just the, like the Russians and the shared values.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:13
Like this has been an obsession of Elon Musk's and sort of the rights
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:17
for some time in the United States.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:19
Like I can go back to three, four years ago where Musk is talking about
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:23
population collapse due to low birth rates being a much bigger risk to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:27
civilization than things like global warming or things like geopolitics.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:30
And you've got like this coterie of your Joe Rogans and your Dave Portnoy and your
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:35
Chris Williamsons, all of whose podcasts I would happily appear on so that I could
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:38
connect with the misguided male youth.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:40
But they're all out there, like in this very, muscular is the wrong word.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:44
It's like a very simplistic, like a very sort of empty bro culture that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:49
a lot of people listen to because they relate to it 'cause they feel
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:51
like it's a quote unquote safe space.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:53
So I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:54
I'm trying, I'm like throwing things out at the wall trying to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:21:56
figure out what the why is and we probably won't be able to do it.
Marko Papic:
00:21:58
But no, I think, I think what's what's fascinating about this
Marko Papic:
00:22:02
is that this is one of the things that I think is happening in the
Marko Papic:
00:22:04
world right now on almost every issue.
Marko Papic:
00:22:07
Um, and what I mean by that is that.
Marko Papic:
00:22:10
There is a challenge to the conventional wisdom, and it's usually set, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:22:15
right of center, um, and the liberal left and the progressive mainstream
Marko Papic:
00:22:21
ignores it and basically says it's a slippery slope towards a racist
Marko Papic:
00:22:27
eugenics, like Nazi fascist state.
Marko Papic:
00:22:31
And so it refuses to discuss it, and then it's just remains in the right wing domain
Marko Papic:
00:22:38
where it leads to a Nazi fascist state.
Marko Papic:
00:22:41
So what do I mean, what do I mean by this?
Marko Papic:
00:22:44
Um, like climate change I think is a very similar topic where, um, climate
Marko Papic:
00:22:48
change obviously is clearly happening.
Marko Papic:
00:22:51
But is it going to cook us by next Tuesday?
Marko Papic:
00:22:53
Are we all gonna die by next Tuesday?
Marko Papic:
00:22:55
Eh, I'm not sure that that's the case.
Marko Papic:
00:22:57
And no, driving a Tesla doesn't make you better human being.
Marko Papic:
00:23:00
It actually makes you stupider if you are driving a Tesla in part
Marko Papic:
00:23:04
of the country where electricity is not derived from alternatives.
Marko Papic:
00:23:07
So you're just a moron who's driving a piece of technology with 200 kilograms
Marko Papic:
00:23:11
of metals that somebody had to dug out, dig out of the ground, take to
Marko Papic:
00:23:14
China, refine it and send it to you.
Marko Papic:
00:23:17
So that's a good example to me of, of an issue.
Marko Papic:
00:23:20
Similarly with this, and what I find, uh, fascinating with Richard
Marko Papic:
00:23:23
Reese's book, which I've read by the way I just checked up.
Marko Papic:
00:23:26
He worked for Nick Clegg.
Marko Papic:
00:23:28
I mean, you know, like he was the leader of the liberal Democrats in the
Marko Papic:
00:23:31
United Kingdom, deputy Prime Minister.
Marko Papic:
00:23:32
I mean like mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
00:23:33
He is not a right wing lunatic.
Marko Papic:
00:23:35
So for all of you who have not heard of this book of Boys and Men, no, it's
Marko Papic:
00:23:39
not some right wing appeal to like subjugate women, but what he does is
Marko Papic:
00:23:43
he presents data and says, Hey look, boys are falling behind in education.
Marko Papic:
00:23:49
There's nothing like wrong with that.
Marko Papic:
00:23:50
Like, you know, they just develop a little bit later than women, but we
Marko Papic:
00:23:54
send them to school at the same time.
Marko Papic:
00:23:56
And they compete for entry exams at universities, very competitive at
Marko Papic:
00:23:59
18, and they are not yet ready to compete with 51% of the humans who
Marko Papic:
00:24:05
are developed earlier than them.
Marko Papic:
00:24:08
So then they fall behind and then we, they fall through the cracks, and then
Marko Papic:
00:24:12
they're left to be caught by the YouTubers and podcaster that you were mentioning,
Marko Papic:
00:24:16
and apparently the Russian Orthodox Church of America, which offers them
Marko Papic:
00:24:21
a path to Uber, levels of manliness.
Marko Papic:
00:24:23
But what I find interesting, and where I wanna point a finger to is
Marko Papic:
00:24:28
to the left, is to the liberals, because they're the ones that are
Marko Papic:
00:24:33
unwilling to even debate this issue.
Marko Papic:
00:24:36
In many ways.
Marko Papic:
00:24:36
And I actually, the way I found out about Reeves is I watched him on,
Marko Papic:
00:24:40
on a couple of, like comedy talk shows where he was basically being
Marko Papic:
00:24:45
made fun of by the interviewer.
Marko Papic:
00:24:47
Like mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
00:24:48
All really, like, men are falling behind.
Marko Papic:
00:24:50
And he's like, no, no, I'm actually serious about this.
Marko Papic:
00:24:52
You know, like, here's this book, you know, and they're like, ha
Marko Papic:
00:24:55
ha, ha, uh, and he's like, no, but seriously, we need to talk about this.
Marko Papic:
00:24:58
And if we don't talk about it, then the men who fall through
Marko Papic:
00:25:01
the cracks or the boys are going to find ways to be, to fulfill
Marko Papic:
00:25:06
themselves, to be manly on YouTube.
Marko Papic:
00:25:09
And I think this is, this is something where Donald Trump and
Marko Papic:
00:25:13
the MAGA movement are kind of right.
Marko Papic:
00:25:16
You know, it's, it's this, it's, it's, it's this, um, failure to debate, failure
Marko Papic:
00:25:25
to recognize something is a problem that then leads to people reaching for the
Marko Papic:
00:25:31
Russian Orthodox Church as a solution.
Marko Papic:
00:25:34
To their problems.
Marko Papic:
00:25:35
And it's, it's, it's the unwillingness often of, um, the establishment
Marko Papic:
00:25:41
writ large to debate the issues similarly with climate change,
Marko Papic:
00:25:45
mitigation of climate change.
Marko Papic:
00:25:47
You know, like, um, as somebody who lives in Los Angeles, who's, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:25:51
who's, uh, basically, you know, a place where I live almost burned down.
Marko Papic:
00:25:57
Uh, I can tell you that I don't want the mayor of my city going to cop.
Marko Papic:
00:26:02
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
00:26:05
Like she needs to stay in this town and make sure that there's
Marko Papic:
00:26:08
mitigation to climate change.
Marko Papic:
00:26:10
'cause it's happening.
Marko Papic:
00:26:12
You know, like state officials like Governor of California should
Marko Papic:
00:26:15
not be going to an international conference in climate change.
Marko Papic:
00:26:17
Sorry, bro.
Marko Papic:
00:26:19
Sorry.
Marko Papic:
00:26:20
You know, come on.
Marko Papic:
00:26:20
My podcast, come at me.
Marko Papic:
00:26:22
We'll talk about it.
Marko Papic:
00:26:23
But Governor Newsom should stay here and mitigate for what's gonna happen.
Marko Papic:
00:26:29
Sitting there and pretending it's not happening, you know, and that
Marko Papic:
00:26:32
we can still mitigate it through EVs in like Bulgaria is nonsense.
Marko Papic:
00:26:36
You need to make sure that there's enough water in like fire hydrants
Marko Papic:
00:26:39
for example, so that mitigation occurs again, a very similar problem that we
Marko Papic:
00:26:43
have in our society where there's an issue and it just doesn't get handled
Marko Papic:
00:26:47
because the waste to handle it actually undermines the bigger, bigger story.
Marko Papic:
00:26:53
Um, so this is one of those things and I find it, you know, fascinating that
Marko Papic:
00:26:57
we've basically gotten to a point.
Marko Papic:
00:26:59
You know, some young man, um, has no recourse to anything else other than
Marko Papic:
00:27:03
to listen to Joe Rogan bench press and join the Russian Orthodox Church.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:08
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:09
Um, yeah, I'm here in New Orleans ground zero for climate change.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:12
And exactly to your point, like, you know, there have been so many plans about how
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:15
to deal with living close to water and invariably none of the plans get made.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:19
They just build some more pumps and some construction company gets
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:22
a backend deal and, and whatever.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:24
Um.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:25
I, I guess, um, you know, you were talking about the left.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:27
I, I wanna protect some part of the left because I don't know if you saw this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:30
Did you see that Bernie Sanders went on Andrew Schultz's podcast, um, a
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:33
couple weeks ago and was getting major flack on the left for going on there
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:37
because like people accused him of being a racist and things like that?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:39
I would, I would encourage people to go watch the episode itself.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:42
It got over a million views.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:43
Um, but he did, I mean, he did what Bernie always does, which is Bernie.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:47
This is the thing I like about Bernie.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:48
Even if I disagree with 60% of what comes out of his mouth, he's always the same.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:52
He's always authentic.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:53
Like he's telling you exactly what he thinks and he basically is
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:56
like, don't get me on this hole.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:57
I'm a racist thing.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:27:58
I think that this is a class issue and I think poor people have been
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:02
taken for a ride in this country, and I think we need to deal with
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:04
inequality in all these different ways.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:06
Don't distract me with all this bullshit.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:08
I was marching in the sixties and seventies, like,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:09
I'm not, I'm not that guy.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:11
I hate that I'm being pigeonholed like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:13
But to your point, like Bernie was like kept on the outside, uh, in that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:17
And that 2016 election was sort of thrown into the populous bag,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:21
pushed to the side, pushed as, as this person who wasn't relevant.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:24
When there is, there is a voice on the left that is
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:26
willing to sort of confront it.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:28
And there it's, it's less about, um, or, or the thing that he's really
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:31
focusing on there is the establishment.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:34
And, and this is where the, the sort of Trump thing breaks down because it's, you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:39
know, Trump promised to drain the swamp and to get rid of the establishment,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:42
to challenge conventional views.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:43
And o okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:44
Like, with you, with you, with you, except like the level of like, of like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:48
propping up the establishment and the grift that we're seeing out of this White
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:51
House is just like absolutely shocking.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:53
And that doesn't seem to matter to people.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:54
But, uh, last point, just, um, you know, it was shocking at the time that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:28:59
Kamala Harris wouldn't go on Joe Rogan's podcast like she had Trump on and
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:04
like, she, well, no, correct me then.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:07
'cause she didn't, my understanding was that she didn't wanna go on,
Marko Papic:
00:29:10
she, no, uh, Joe Rogan addressed this, uh, on his
Marko Papic:
00:29:13
podcast, I think, and it was, uh.
Marko Papic:
00:29:15
She basically said, look, you have to fly to us and I'll give you an hour.
Marko Papic:
00:29:20
And he was like, no, no.
Marko Papic:
00:29:21
The whole point of this is you have to come to my like physical location, be
Marko Papic:
00:29:26
here for like three hours and it's when this thing gets into that two and a half
Marko Papic:
00:29:31
hours, that's when you start losing, you know, your, your composure and that's
Marko Papic:
00:29:35
when you see the real stuff, you know?
Marko Papic:
00:29:37
And, and I thought that was fair.
Marko Papic:
00:29:39
Um, on his, you know, this is how he does it and, you know, she
Marko Papic:
00:29:43
has to do what he wants, but they refuse to accept those conditions.
Marko Papic:
00:29:47
And then Trump was like,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:49
already, it's the same thing like Kamala Harris.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:51
Kamala Harris.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:52
Like if he hadn't invited her, Kamala Harris should have been
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:54
begging to get on that show.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:56
She should have been trying to reach all those people that were listening
Jacob Shapiro:
00:29:59
and instead by saying, no, they just gave another platform to Trump and gave
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:03
all those, anybody who was looking to Rogan like a Oh, okay, like Trump is
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:07
brave enough to come on here and talk to this guy, and the other one isn't.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:10
That's like all I really need to know.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:12
And I, I don't want this to be a Joe Rogan love session, but I will say
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:14
like, I listen to him every once in a while, honestly, when I have trouble
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:17
falling asleep gets me right to sleep.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:20
Um, but, um, I think.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:23
I think he does a really good job of opening space
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:26
for interesting conversation.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:27
He's not afraid of looking like an idiot and asking stupid questions sometimes
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:31
to smart people, sometimes to people I regard as absolutely batshit insane.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:35
But like, he opens up a space for conversation.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:38
And I think there is like a real desire for like, oh, like you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:41
could say whatever you want.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:43
Like you'll, you'll, like, it doesn't matter how dumb the view
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:45
is, like you can learn or that's a gateway drug into actually learning
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:48
something rather than being taken by Father Moses to stop jacking off.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:30:54
And, uh, no, that's,
Marko Papic:
00:30:55
so, okay, so here's some homework for our,
Marko Papic:
00:30:57
uh, for our, for our fans here.
Marko Papic:
00:31:00
Um, so first of all, go and watch, uh, Richard Reeves' interview, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:31:06
of Boys and Men and reframing debates about gender on the Daily Show.
Marko Papic:
00:31:10
Uh, this got, I think, uh, 267,000 views.
Marko Papic:
00:31:15
It's on YouTube and he's basically interviewed, um.
Marko Papic:
00:31:19
By Desi Lid, who is one of the anchors of the Daily Show, rotating anchors.
Marko Papic:
00:31:25
And effectively, like, it's a hilarious interview because this guy who worked
Marko Papic:
00:31:30
for Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democratic Party of the United Kingdom, probably
Marko Papic:
00:31:36
the most socially liberal party in the United Kingdom, um, wrote a book that
Marko Papic:
00:31:42
says that boys have fallen behind and Desi lytic can't stop by making fun of him.
Marko Papic:
00:31:47
You know, it's like, this is ridiculous, right?
Marko Papic:
00:31:49
Like, but men are toxic.
Marko Papic:
00:31:52
Um, and he has a real problem with the, the term toxic masculinity, you know?
Marko Papic:
00:31:57
Um, and he makes a really good point, which is that we have basically decided
Marko Papic:
00:32:02
that this is a ridiculous conversation.
Marko Papic:
00:32:04
Anyone who has a conversation about boys falling behind is clearly a right
Marko Papic:
00:32:08
wing lunatic, and therefore we're gonna just let them join the Russian
Marko Papic:
00:32:12
Orthodox Church of America and you know, God, and then, and then learn how to.
Marko Papic:
00:32:19
Become men from, from much, much worse options.
Marko Papic:
00:32:23
And that's, I think that's where the establishment really is.
Marko Papic:
00:32:27
Deaf and, you know, um, how to raise boys, how to, how to integrate men into society
Marko Papic:
00:32:34
when you know the easy jobs are gone.
Marko Papic:
00:32:37
That's a really important issue and shouldn't be left to YouTubers
Marko Papic:
00:32:42
and podcasters and, you know, various like Reddit threads to solve
Jacob Shapiro:
00:32:49
so that, well, and I don't know how you've, I don't know how
Jacob Shapiro:
00:32:51
you feel about this, arguably is going to get much worse if the promise of AI
Jacob Shapiro:
00:32:54
is everything that people say it is.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:32:56
Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:32:56
So first it came for the manufacturing jobs, but how about the lawyers and the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:00
architects and the engineers and the, even some of the doctors and things like that?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:05
Like what happens when,
Marko Papic:
00:33:07
well, most doctors and lawyers are now women.
Marko Papic:
00:33:09
Jacobs so.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:11
You know?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:12
Well, okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:12
Like, it's gonna come for them too.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:13
I'm just saying like, you've already got like this like, like tip, like,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:17
like they're losing like professional avenues for accomplishment.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:20
Like what happens when, well, there is an anecdote, I've said this on my
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:23
other podcast where, um, some, some friends that I have in North Dakota,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:27
the, the men in the, like the young boys college age don't want to go to college.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:32
They want to go to electrician school or trade school or whatever
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:35
else, and just make a hundred grand or 150 grand, be an electrician and
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:38
they're totally happy with that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:33:39
Or be a stone mason or something like that.
Marko Papic:
00:33:41
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:33:42
Well that's not a bad idea.
Marko Papic:
00:33:43
I mean, I think that that's where one of the things that President Trump
Marko Papic:
00:33:46
said was that he wants to redirect this funding from Harvard to trade schools.
Marko Papic:
00:33:51
So, I mean, there isn't, there is, there is an argument for that.
Marko Papic:
00:33:55
Um.
Marko Papic:
00:33:56
Obviously it doesn't have to be redirected from Harvard, but the truth
Marko Papic:
00:33:59
is that in Germany, for example, not everybody does get to go to university.
Marko Papic:
00:34:02
Uh, I mean, you, you get a chance, but, uh, if you're not good enough,
Marko Papic:
00:34:06
um, quite a, quite a lot of people end up going to a two year program.
Marko Papic:
00:34:11
I don't wanna call it a trade school.
Marko Papic:
00:34:12
It's not necessarily a trade school.
Marko Papic:
00:34:14
It can be a two year program for hospitality.
Marko Papic:
00:34:16
It can be, uh, you know, a two year program for like a, like
Marko Papic:
00:34:20
an accelerated business degree.
Marko Papic:
00:34:21
The point is there is other alternatives other than the university.
Marko Papic:
00:34:24
Um, but, but you know, what's, what's interesting to me about all this is
Marko Papic:
00:34:28
that, um, it, it requires I think, acceptance of some of the problems.
Marko Papic:
00:34:34
For example, with climate change, it is very expensive to transition
Marko Papic:
00:34:38
to an electronic vehicle, electric vehicle, you know, so we need
Marko Papic:
00:34:42
to take that into account.
Marko Papic:
00:34:43
Putting taxes and gasoline, uh, may make sense if you are in the city.
Marko Papic:
00:34:49
Fine.
Marko Papic:
00:34:50
Like totally got it.
Marko Papic:
00:34:51
You may not need to go to target with your car, like take public transportation,
Marko Papic:
00:34:55
but if you live in a rural part of the United States of America, um, you know,
Marko Papic:
00:35:00
you may believe in climate change, you may wanna mitigate it, but you don't
Marko Papic:
00:35:03
have public transportation systems.
Marko Papic:
00:35:05
So that's not the best way to mitigate this issue.
Marko Papic:
00:35:07
For example, all I'm saying about this is that I do think there's callousness.
Marko Papic:
00:35:12
That's what I would say.
Marko Papic:
00:35:14
I think the left.
Marko Papic:
00:35:15
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
00:35:15
And the liberal mainstream has been callous when it comes to these
Marko Papic:
00:35:18
issues, dismisses them as nonsensical and doesn't wanna discuss them.
Marko Papic:
00:35:24
And I think this 15 minute interview between Richard Reeves
Marko Papic:
00:35:27
and Desi Lytic is like a perfect example of that callousness.
Marko Papic:
00:35:31
Now, God bless her, she's a comic.
Marko Papic:
00:35:34
It's not her job to interview the man properly.
Marko Papic:
00:35:37
Um, but I thought that that was, that was a very, very good, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:35:41
way to kind of think about this.
Marko Papic:
00:35:42
And that's why this BBC article, you know, comics, uh, attention.
Marko Papic:
00:35:45
That's why we spend 35 minutes.
Marko Papic:
00:35:47
Basically talking about it because, um, BBC, I mean, on one hand, really good
Marko Papic:
00:35:53
job on shining a light in this issue.
Marko Papic:
00:35:56
On the other hand, they are making fun of it themselves.
Marko Papic:
00:35:59
They're saying like, look at these idiots in central Texas, you know,
Marko Papic:
00:36:03
finding appeal in Russian orthodoxy.
Marko Papic:
00:36:06
Like, how, how stupid is that?
Marko Papic:
00:36:08
But what they're not really, uh, examining, and it's not their job,
Marko Papic:
00:36:11
they're just journalists, but what they're not examining is why, why do mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
00:36:15
You know, young men starting families find a need to, you know, like appeal to
Marko Papic:
00:36:20
some sort of a higher power in order to feel, uh, comfortable with who they are.
Marko Papic:
00:36:24
And that's, and that's I think, a deeper social issue that's maybe at the crux of
Marko Papic:
00:36:29
almost all of our increasing, you know, increasing levels of, of toxic ways to
Marko Papic:
00:36:36
achieve Uber manliness, which includes, uh, toxic forms of nationalism, jingoism.
Marko Papic:
00:36:42
You know, trade tensions, a lot of this stuff at its root cause
Marko Papic:
00:36:46
may be a biological reality.
Marko Papic:
00:36:48
We have finally broken down discrimination against women, and that's awesome.
Marko Papic:
00:36:54
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:36:54
And not all of it, again, it's not perfect, but we've
Marko Papic:
00:36:56
broken down a lot of it.
Marko Papic:
00:36:58
But that has created this interesting consequence, which is that men and
Marko Papic:
00:37:02
women don't develop at the same pace.
Marko Papic:
00:37:04
And so by the time they're 18 years old, men should be behind, given the
Marko Papic:
00:37:10
biological realities of the two of them.
Marko Papic:
00:37:12
And I think that's fascinating.
Marko Papic:
00:37:15
And Dan might be, and, and it really, yeah, sorry.
Marko Papic:
00:37:18
Uh, permanent gendering almost of politics, you know, which is, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:37:21
which, which is not a good thing.
Marko Papic:
00:37:23
That is not, you know, politics should not be gendered.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:28
Well, and going back to our Russian values visa, like there's a reason
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:31
that Vladimir Putin, like made Ukraine, like, you know, he wanted to deify them,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:35
but also that Ukraine was like, you know, this source of like sexual promiscuous.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:39
And there's, you know, gay people running around Kyiv and they've abandoned the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:42
values of Russian Orthodoxy and like, we have to get the back into the Russian fo.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:45
Like this was part of the rhetorical cocktail that justified this, and
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:49
as Russian men going to fight.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:50
So that's what you're, you're getting if you get the Russian value piece.
Marko Papic:
00:37:52
I love the way you put it.
Marko Papic:
00:37:53
Put that again, what kind of cocktail?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:56
What did I I I've, I've already blacked out.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:37:57
What did I say?
Marko Papic:
00:37:58
Well, no, I mean, it's, it's this toxic cocktail.
Marko Papic:
00:38:00
You're right.
Marko Papic:
00:38:01
That definitely got, um, used for Russia versus Ukraine.
Marko Papic:
00:38:06
But, but even the tariffs, even this idea of bringing manufacturing back
Marko Papic:
00:38:10
to the US it appeals to a sort of a lost individual sitting somewhere in
Marko Papic:
00:38:16
Oklahoma or Indianapolis or whatever, and saying to themselves like, Hey,
Marko Papic:
00:38:20
if only we didn't have globalization, I would be in a better spot.
Marko Papic:
00:38:25
And first of all, that's ridiculous because when we do return manufacturing
Marko Papic:
00:38:29
to America, you are not gonna be in that factory unless it's to oil
Marko Papic:
00:38:33
the automated robots, you know?
Marko Papic:
00:38:36
So like you will still not have a good job.
Marko Papic:
00:38:39
Whoever you are out there, but I'm pretty sure you're not listening
Marko Papic:
00:38:41
to Jacob Shapiro and Marco Bob.
Marko Papic:
00:38:43
Um,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:44
you know, and, and this, this was actually like on Fox News.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:47
Like, uh, Fox News has Jesse Waters.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:50
He did a whole segment, uh, what was this?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:52
In, in April.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:54
The segment was, could Trump's tariffs be the ultimate testosterone boost?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:38:58
He's called everything from grocery shopping to eating
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:00
soup in public feminine.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:01
I wonder if he's visiting with Father Moses.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:04
Uh, and you know.
Marko Papic:
00:39:08
Like you are.
Marko Papic:
00:39:10
So, I dunno, I
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:10
make a great soup.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:11
I mean, you're outside ridiculous.
Marko Papic:
00:39:12
You're working, there's like smoke billowing out of the soup.
Marko Papic:
00:39:15
Like this is, this is very manly.
Marko Papic:
00:39:17
Like you try eating a soup made by a Serbian grandmother.
Marko Papic:
00:39:20
God.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:21
But listen.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:21
And, and he said when you, he said, when you sit behind a screen
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:23
all day, it makes you a woman's.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:25
Studies have shown this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:26
And then there was another, uh, another person who came on the program that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:29
said that Trump's trade policies, to your point, we'll fix the crisis of
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:32
masculinity stemming from the loss of manual labor jobs in America.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:36
So this is not academic.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:37
Like if you're listening to this and being like, uh, Marco and Jacob
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:39
retired, they're, they're searching for something to talk about.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:41
No, no, no, no.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:42
This is like actually the top of the fold.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:45
Like in, like, not just in the Joe Rogan universe, in the Fox news universe,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:39:48
in the mainstream like right wing
Marko Papic:
00:39:50
universe.
Marko Papic:
00:39:50
Well see.
Marko Papic:
00:39:51
But see, this is what I'm getting at.
Marko Papic:
00:39:52
Now we can sit here and make fun of it, right?
Marko Papic:
00:39:54
Or we can say, okay, okay, okay.
Marko Papic:
00:39:55
But like, but why does it appeal?
Marko Papic:
00:39:58
First of all, I just gotta be very clear.
Marko Papic:
00:40:00
There will be no expansion of manufacturing jobs in the
Marko Papic:
00:40:03
United States of America.
Marko Papic:
00:40:04
It's not gonna happen.
Marko Papic:
00:40:05
It is not gonna happen.
Marko Papic:
00:40:06
Zero chance that that happens.
Marko Papic:
00:40:07
Zero.
Marko Papic:
00:40:09
Let's, you know, I'll find anyone about it.
Marko Papic:
00:40:11
Um, and I ate soup from a Serbian grandmother, so come get me.
Marko Papic:
00:40:14
You know, like, and so like, so, okay, so five years from now, when we look at
Marko Papic:
00:40:18
the numbers and we see like there was a little bit of a hiccup in manufacturing
Marko Papic:
00:40:21
jobs, the point is the policy appeals to this, like bringing testosterone
Marko Papic:
00:40:27
back to America and then, you know, the liberal left and establishment
Marko Papic:
00:40:30
will say, well, this is stupid.
Marko Papic:
00:40:31
There won't be any jobs in America because Mark was right.
Marko Papic:
00:40:34
It's automation.
Marko Papic:
00:40:34
But we still haven't solved the fact that a bunch of dudes find this appealing and
Marko Papic:
00:40:41
they find it appealing because of the kind of things that Richard Reeves talks in
Marko Papic:
00:40:45
his book, not some right wing, lunatic, centrist, liberal, Democrat from the
Marko Papic:
00:40:50
United Kingdom with a PhD in geography.
Marko Papic:
00:40:52
You know what I mean?
Marko Papic:
00:40:52
Like this guy is.
Marko Papic:
00:40:54
Just presenting facts.
Marko Papic:
00:40:55
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:40:55
Um, and we don't want to talk about those facts because it somehow makes you less of
Marko Papic:
00:41:00
a feminist or less pro women to point out that boys are falling behind in education.
Marko Papic:
00:41:05
And this, I can't stand this, I can't stand this as an analyst 'cause
Marko Papic:
00:41:09
this is what I do for a living.
Marko Papic:
00:41:10
I'm just an analyst.
Marko Papic:
00:41:11
I analyze problems and I hate it when certain problems are colored
Marko Papic:
00:41:16
by politics and you're not allowed to even bring those problems up.
Marko Papic:
00:41:20
Um, because it makes you somehow, you know, not member of the establishment,
Marko Papic:
00:41:25
which I obviously couldn't care less.
Marko Papic:
00:41:26
'cause my clients pay me a lot of money to not be part of the establishment.
Marko Papic:
00:41:30
And
Jacob Shapiro:
00:41:31
really what we really, what we need is all these young men
Jacob Shapiro:
00:41:33
to come listen to the two, the two white cousins talk to each other about
Jacob Shapiro:
00:41:37
these issues and real, this is where you will learn the art of manliness.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:41:40
Should we change the tag for the podcast?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:41:42
Like discovering the Art
Marko Papic:
00:41:44
of Man?
Marko Papic:
00:41:44
Oh yes.
Marko Papic:
00:41:44
Uber Manliness comes from listening to Jacob Shapiro and Marco Parker.
Marko Papic:
00:41:46
First of all, ranking a global powers by geopolitics is pretty manly.
Marko Papic:
00:41:51
I'm gonna say.
Marko Papic:
00:41:52
Um, of course.
Marko Papic:
00:41:53
And I mean, and also like, you know, ranking the most geopolitical
Marko Papic:
00:41:58
like sport movement moments.
Marko Papic:
00:42:00
Like Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:42:01
I, I think, I think we're manly.
Marko Papic:
00:42:03
Um, and I think it's funny to be manly, by the way, and I
Marko Papic:
00:42:06
think that's, uh, I think we're
Jacob Smulian:
00:42:07
manly.
Marko Papic:
00:42:08
I think
Jacob Smulian:
00:42:08
we're manly.
Marko Papic:
00:42:11
Please, uh, validate my masculinity.
Marko Papic:
00:42:14
Okay,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:14
well I'll, I'll, I'll get us outta here on, on one personal
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:16
story, or, or you can, you can respond to it, which is, 'cause I, I, I'm gonna go
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:20
read this book that you rec recommended with Reeves, and I went through my list
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:23
of like, potential reasons for this.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:24
But the, it sounds like from the book that you mentioned that he's really
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:27
talking about, it's actually a biological, physical thing, the way that's education
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:30
structures are set up The beginning.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:33
The beginning, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:33
The beginning.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:34
Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:42:34
And then, then he gets into the other stuff.
Marko Papic:
00:42:36
Why do girls crush it?
Marko Papic:
00:42:38
Like that's the idea.
Marko Papic:
00:42:38
Like girls are crushing it and it's, you know, because they're biologically more
Marko Papic:
00:42:42
advanced at the early part of their life.
Marko Papic:
00:42:45
They just, uh, they mature faster.
Marko Papic:
00:42:47
Which by the way, if you have children, when I, I have two daughters, well,
Marko Papic:
00:42:52
and I have two daughters and a son.
Marko Papic:
00:42:55
And I remember going to my wife when my son was about 18 months old, and I said
Marko Papic:
00:42:59
like, we should, we should get him tested.
Marko Papic:
00:43:02
I think, I think, I think, you know, there's something mentally wrong with him.
Marko Papic:
00:43:06
And she went to me and she's like, no, he's just a boy.
Marko Papic:
00:43:09
And your first child was a girl and so you're anchoring to her development.
Marko Papic:
00:43:14
And I was like.
Marko Papic:
00:43:15
Oh, okay.
Marko Papic:
00:43:19
So not wrong.
Marko Papic:
00:43:20
Like I've lived the experience, but I've also lived and before,
Marko Papic:
00:43:23
uh, sorry to No, no, you're good.
Marko Papic:
00:43:25
Interject with my personal story to yours.
Marko Papic:
00:43:27
Um, this is very personal to me because I have witnessed in the educational
Marko Papic:
00:43:31
system across both Quebec and California, subtle ways in which young boys
Marko Papic:
00:43:38
are being discriminated sometimes, sometimes for just being like, you know,
Marko Papic:
00:43:43
neurotic little, you know, shitheads.
Marko Papic:
00:43:46
They're just being, you know, like in, in the case of my son as, as an
Marko Papic:
00:43:50
example, I mean, I was in a meeting in his kindergarten, you know, the
Marko Papic:
00:43:54
poor kids didn't speak any French.
Marko Papic:
00:43:56
And the kindergarten teacher, the principal and my wife kind of ganged up
Marko Papic:
00:44:00
on him and, uh, in, in ways that were like projecting societal problems on like, the
Marko Papic:
00:44:07
principal literally uttered the words.
Marko Papic:
00:44:09
Does he have problem respecting women?
Marko Papic:
00:44:12
Now, this is a five-year-old boy.
Marko Papic:
00:44:15
You know, and everybody in the room.
Marko Papic:
00:44:18
Every woman in the room was like, kind of nodding knowingly.
Marko Papic:
00:44:21
And I was like, no, he's a 6-year-old.
Marko Papic:
00:44:25
He's 5-year-old.
Marko Papic:
00:44:27
Shithead.
Marko Papic:
00:44:28
He has trouble respecting anybody, you know?
Marko Papic:
00:44:31
Um, but anyways, that's, that's, that's, I think, uh, anyone who's actually
Marko Papic:
00:44:35
raised kids in today's world, I think can, can relate to some of these issues.
Marko Papic:
00:44:40
And, uh.
Marko Papic:
00:44:41
And it's, you know, that's why it's a very interesting topic for me.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:45
Well, and just my personal anecdote on this, um, listeners may
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:49
know this, I don't know if you know this, uh, Marco, I was a proud member
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:51
of the Cornell University Glee Club.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:53
I was also the Omega for two years in the row in the Glee Club.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:56
So that meant that I had the lowest voice in the entire Cornell
Jacob Shapiro:
00:44:59
University Glee Club for two years.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:00
We would compete to see who had the lowest voice.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:02
That, by the way, makes me way more manly than Father Moses.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:05
I have sung the Rah Madoff Vespers and I can hit the low be flat.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:08
Father Moses, I bet you can't do that with all of your aversion towards
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:11
soup and all of your nonsense.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:12
Anyway, Cornell University Glee Club was an all male group when I was there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:17
And, um, it was honestly where I learned not to be a shithead.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:20
I was exposed to like all sorts of.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:23
Male diversity and like it was okay to not only was it okay to feel things,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:28
you had to feel things in order to sing well and to be a good musician and like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:32
unpacking all of the baggage of you're not supposed to be feeling, you're supposed
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:35
to be masculine, you're not like, like the Glee Club was like where most of
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:39
that stuff got rehabilitated for me and I learned that you could be emotional
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:42
and masculine at the same time anyway.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:44
Like, not to make this like a, a therapy session.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:45
The reason I'm bringing it up.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:47
It's because in the last couple of years, the Cornell University Glee Club, it's
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:51
not all male, and they've stripped all references to things like brotherhood
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:54
and fraternity and things like that because they wanted to make it more
Jacob Shapiro:
00:45:58
inclusive and they wanted anybody who was the right voice part be able to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:02
join the Cornell University Glee Club, even though there was also, there's
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:04
an all female group too, the Cornell versus cor, the Cornell University
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:07
Chorus and other like, you know, um, um, other choirs that you can join if
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:12
you want boys and girls or male and female voice parts and things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:16
And I'm just saying like, um, like, like maybe it's the biological
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:19
thing, maybe it's consumerism, maybe it's the loss of manufacturing
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:22
jobs, all these other things.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:23
I just like the fact that in my own lifetime I saw the institution that
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:27
like helped me work all the shit out.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:29
Really no longer exists because it's not politically correct to have hey, just
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:35
dudes here, like just dudes figuring out how to be dudes and like in a
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:39
really productive, like really open like way, but like that's not okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:43
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:43
Everything.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:44
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:46:44
I'm.
Marko Papic:
00:46:45
Uh, it, it, it is, it is a great example because I'm, I'm,
Marko Papic:
00:46:48
I'm positive I would bet anything I own that the Cornell Glee Club is not
Marko Papic:
00:46:55
a source of toxic masculinity facts
Jacob Shapiro:
00:47:00
and, and cured me of some of my own, like,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:47:02
like boxes in that direction.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:47:04
Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:47:04
You know?
Marko Papic:
00:47:04
Exactly.
Marko Papic:
00:47:05
Of course.
Marko Papic:
00:47:06
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
00:47:06
No, that's, that's a great example.
Marko Papic:
00:47:08
But, um, let's go to the Visa for a second.
Marko Papic:
00:47:10
So, basically there's a clear problem in, in the West that
Marko Papic:
00:47:14
you and I have identified.
Marko Papic:
00:47:15
Richard Reeves talks about it too.
Marko Papic:
00:47:17
Uh, we all understand it, what to do with men and Russia goes
Marko Papic:
00:47:20
like, he, we've got a solution.
Marko Papic:
00:47:22
Come to Russia, you know, and you could be a man.
Marko Papic:
00:47:25
Um, and that got me thinking, first of all, God bless Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:47:31
All is fair in love and war.
Marko Papic:
00:47:33
I have no problem with the Visa program.
Marko Papic:
00:47:36
God bless you.
Marko Papic:
00:47:37
Yes, yes.
Marko Papic:
00:47:40
Do it.
Marko Papic:
00:47:41
In fact.
Marko Papic:
00:47:42
You know, if you don't feel comfortable being a man in America, go ahead,
Marko Papic:
00:47:46
pack your bags, go to Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:47:47
I have no problem.
Marko Papic:
00:47:48
It's a, it's a free world baby.
Marko Papic:
00:47:50
And if Vladimir is, is welcoming you to Russia and you wanna take him up, I
Marko Papic:
00:47:54
have absolutely no problem with this.
Marko Papic:
00:47:57
I would not impede, I would not punish, I would not, I would not do
Marko Papic:
00:48:01
anything to people who wanna do this.
Marko Papic:
00:48:04
But
Marko Papic:
00:48:08
I think this is brilliant and I don't understand why
Marko Papic:
00:48:11
the west doesn't do the same.
Marko Papic:
00:48:14
You see, I think it's high time that, um, we separate immigration into buckets.
Marko Papic:
00:48:23
You know, you can have immigration plan to bring labor into the country.
Marko Papic:
00:48:28
Fine.
Marko Papic:
00:48:28
Like, makes sense.
Marko Papic:
00:48:29
But why not have offensive immigration policy?
Marko Papic:
00:48:33
Like if you have a certain level of education and you are from
Marko Papic:
00:48:37
a country that's an adversary, we want to like a vampire.
Marko Papic:
00:48:42
Suck your educated, smart people out of the country.
Marko Papic:
00:48:47
And so, you know, I've jokingly proposed this in the past, like when Russia
Marko Papic:
00:48:51
invade Ukraine, I would've just said, I would've opened all the consulates, all
Marko Papic:
00:48:54
the embassies in Russia and said, Hey man, if you have a master's degree and above
Marko Papic:
00:48:58
like free green cards to America now, of course there's like, no, there's gonna
Marko Papic:
00:49:03
be a ton of spies that come, like, come across the pond, obviously, obviously.
Marko Papic:
00:49:10
But eh, so what, you know, what does the FBI do anyways?
Marko Papic:
00:49:13
Like, there you go.
Marko Papic:
00:49:13
Jobs program.
Marko Papic:
00:49:14
Go, go make sure these people are not spies.
Marko Papic:
00:49:17
The point is, I think that, um, when you, when you think about the West
Marko Papic:
00:49:22
versus Russia or versus China or versus any other adversary, I think it's a
Marko Papic:
00:49:27
fair point to say that the quality of life is much better in the West.
Marko Papic:
00:49:30
I mean, anyone who doesn't say that is like.
Marko Papic:
00:49:33
Clearly lost their marbles.
Marko Papic:
00:49:35
And the point is, yeah, I mean, I think that what Russia is doing is a great
Marko Papic:
00:49:39
example of offensive immigration policy.
Marko Papic:
00:49:42
And um, God bless them, they're allowed to do that.
Marko Papic:
00:49:45
It is, like I said, all fair, all is fair in love and war.
Marko Papic:
00:49:48
I think the US should be adopting the same policy, but here we see the
Marko Papic:
00:49:55
ideological uniformity of the right wing.
Marko Papic:
00:49:58
We, we spent the first 45 minutes effectively criticizing the ideological
Marko Papic:
00:50:03
rigidity and uniformity of the left.
Marko Papic:
00:50:06
The problem with the right is that it's has its own ideological, sacred cause.
Marko Papic:
00:50:10
And one of them is immigrants are bad and immigration itself is some
Marko Papic:
00:50:13
sort of a tool, uh, with which the left is trying to like, um, reduce
Marko Papic:
00:50:20
the white population of America.
Marko Papic:
00:50:22
But there is, there are, there are ways in which immigration has in the
Marko Papic:
00:50:26
past been used, um, quite offensively.
Marko Papic:
00:50:29
And I think that this would be one of the ways to do that.
Marko Papic:
00:50:31
So I actually, um.
Marko Papic:
00:50:33
I support the Russian, uh, what is it?
Marko Papic:
00:50:35
Value visa.
Marko Papic:
00:50:36
I think it's a great idea.
Marko Papic:
00:50:37
It's
Jacob Shapiro:
00:50:38
a value visa.
Marko Papic:
00:50:38
Yes.
Marko Papic:
00:50:39
Value visa.
Marko Papic:
00:50:40
And I think that, um, you know, it, it's, it's not just a way to, um,
Marko Papic:
00:50:45
anger the American establishment.
Marko Papic:
00:50:47
I think it's a way for them to like, basically suck some talent into Russia.
Marko Papic:
00:50:53
But I, I don't think anyone's really gonna apply it to that visa.
Marko Papic:
00:50:55
I mean, it's gonna be very small.
Marko Papic:
00:50:57
I think if the reverse happened and if the West started appealing to really
Marko Papic:
00:51:01
smart, educated Russians, I think that you would see, um, a huge exodus.
Marko Papic:
00:51:07
Huge.
Marko Papic:
00:51:07
And in fact, most of the Russians who are educated, who are just trying to
Marko Papic:
00:51:11
work and raise families, they actually moved to places like Tbilisi in Georgia.
Marko Papic:
00:51:16
They moved to Belgrade in Serbia.
Marko Papic:
00:51:18
And, uh, it's, it's shocking that the West is effectively
Marko Papic:
00:51:23
treating all Russians the same.
Marko Papic:
00:51:25
I mean, that's on some level.
Marko Papic:
00:51:28
Like ethicist, it's racist.
Marko Papic:
00:51:31
Similarly, with all Chinese treating everyone the same, if these are
Marko Papic:
00:51:35
your adversaries, if these are your geopolitical rivals, then absolutely
Marko Papic:
00:51:41
it makes sense to drain them of their human capital and their talent by
Marko Papic:
00:51:45
making an appeal to them, making it easier for them to come as international
Marko Papic:
00:51:49
students and as professionals.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:51:54
Preaching to the choir, but the, the US is doing the exact opposite.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:51:56
The US is basically making it impossible for, uh, you know, advanced students from
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:01
any countries to come to US universities.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:03
So, so
Marko Papic:
00:52:04
let's pivot to that because I know that you're, uh, you're
Marko Papic:
00:52:07
interested in that, in that part.
Marko Papic:
00:52:08
Uh, you tweeted No, no, I, I,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:10
I, I, I don't think we have to pivot to that.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:11
I think we've got some other stuff to talk about, but just like, like it's,
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:14
it's shocking guys we're talking about this, that like, like actually the
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:18
Trump administration is doing the exact opposite of what you're talking about.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:21
Like, like, and maybe they, you know, uh, I saw, I think it was Rubio out there
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:24
claiming that they just need to expand social media vetting before they, you
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:28
know, restart student visa interviews.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:30
But they've halted student visa interviews for the entire world trying to get to
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:34
US universities as they're like trying to get, you know, trying to get funding
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:37
sources away from the universities.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:39
And you're taking away that sweet, sweet international student like tuition.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:42
Like it's just gonna, like irrevocably change the face of US
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:45
science and it's gonna open up.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:47
They're not gonna go for the Russian values visa, but Japan is trying
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:49
to attract more skilled labor.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:51
Japan, like, like they're trying to attract immigrants.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:54
Like that's how, like long in the tooth the situation is.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:52:57
If China started doing this, like I think it would be really difficult
Jacob Shapiro:
00:53:01
for people not to think about being at the cutting edge there.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:53:03
Europe is the odds on favorite, or to your point, Canada, like an odds on favorite
Jacob Shapiro:
00:53:06
to like really profit from this, but like, no, listen, it's not what US is doing.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:53:09
Listen,
Marko Papic:
00:53:09
just to be clear, just to be clear, there is a lot
Marko Papic:
00:53:11
of fraud, uh, and there is a lot of like, uh, non-productive ways.
Marko Papic:
00:53:18
Of attracting international students as well.
Marko Papic:
00:53:21
So Canada had this problem with language programs.
Marko Papic:
00:53:23
Um, so basically you can just show up in Canada, get a student visa and like learn
Marko Papic:
00:53:28
English in Vancouver, but you're just really partying and eventually you stay or
Marko Papic:
00:53:32
like, you know, you're a quote unquote the drain on like social resources and so on.
Marko Papic:
00:53:38
I get that, I get that.
Marko Papic:
00:53:39
But there's ways to eliminate that vacuous, non-productive source and pool
Marko Papic:
00:53:45
of international students and direct them towards the more productive.
Marko Papic:
00:53:49
And Canada's done that.
Marko Papic:
00:53:50
So Canada is actually cutting international student
Marko Papic:
00:53:53
applications, uh, 10% this year.
Marko Papic:
00:53:56
Uh, but the effort is to keep the university applications relatively
Marko Papic:
00:54:00
stable, uh, and eliminate those, you know, semi fraudulent language programs.
Marko Papic:
00:54:06
Um, I think the US uh, I think maybe we've overreacted.
Marko Papic:
00:54:10
I. To this, maybe they are just like introducing social media vetting.
Marko Papic:
00:54:14
I don't think it's sustainable to not attract international students.
Marko Papic:
00:54:18
Uh, I think we need to separate what's happening to Harvard
Marko Papic:
00:54:21
from the State Department issue.
Marko Papic:
00:54:22
And again, we'll, we'll see in 12 months.
Marko Papic:
00:54:24
Jacob, who's right, who's wrong?
Marko Papic:
00:54:25
You know, like, so I'm open, I'm open to being obviously wrong
Marko Papic:
00:54:29
in this being like terrible.
Marko Papic:
00:54:30
Um, but I'm, I'm going even beyond that.
Marko Papic:
00:54:33
You know, what I'm saying is that our entire immigration system can
Marko Papic:
00:54:37
be changed and not just of the United States of America, but also
Marko Papic:
00:54:40
of Europe and also of, uh, Canada.
Marko Papic:
00:54:44
And what I mean is that it can start to aggressively recruit educated and
Marko Papic:
00:54:49
well-trained professionals, you know, and, and not, and I think the, it,
Marko Papic:
00:54:53
it starts with a very simple point.
Marko Papic:
00:54:55
You cannot treat anyone, everyone who's Russian, as if they themselves
Marko Papic:
00:55:01
approved and authorized and planned the invasion of Ukraine.
Marko Papic:
00:55:05
And effectively that's what we're doing.
Marko Papic:
00:55:07
And it's benefiting countries like Georgia and Serbia.
Marko Papic:
00:55:10
You know, whereas it could be benefiting countries like Germany, which do
Marko Papic:
00:55:14
need IT professionals desperately.
Marko Papic:
00:55:17
Um, and it's just a silly fact that this is, this is one of those
Marko Papic:
00:55:22
things where geopolitics has not been able to break through, uh,
Marko Papic:
00:55:27
very parochial domestic politics.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:30
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:31
Um, you know, I think that maybe, uh, government should take a, they
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:35
should take a look at what the NBA does, like aggressively recruiting
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:38
talent throughout the entire world.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:39
Get the best players into the National Basketball Association.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:43
And so the NBA becomes the best because you find Giannis and
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:46
you find Victor, Victor, Ana.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:47
Like, why shouldn't you just do that with immigration in general, you know?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:51
Um, I feel like, was it not Germany?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:54
There was a, I thought it was the eu.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:55:57
Yeah, I mean, the EU actually a couple weeks ago, like launched a
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:00
new initiative to try and attract scientists and researchers.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:05
To the block and I feel, I can't find it off the tip of, I'll have
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:08
to see if I'm just imagining it, but I believe, I thought it was Germany
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:10
or some European country was like basically offering Russian, like
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:14
academics, like access to the country if they needed it, like after the fact.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:17
There you go.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:17
But I can't, I can't find it.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:19
Um, exactly.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:20
Um, okay, we did an hour on the Art of Manliness.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:23
That's great.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:24
Dealer's choice.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:25
Marco, do you wanna talk about Bitcoin and crypto or do you wanna talk
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:28
about the big beautiful Bill first?
Marko Papic:
00:56:30
I think big, beautiful Bill, uh, Elon Musk was, uh.
Marko Papic:
00:56:35
Basically interviewed, um, uh, criticizing it.
Marko Papic:
00:56:38
He was of course the head of Doge, which was supposed to
Marko Papic:
00:56:41
improve government efficiency.
Marko Papic:
00:56:42
And, um, he was surprised that the bill increases the deficit rather than def d
Marko Papic:
00:56:47
decreases it, which, you know, I don't know what planet he was on, uh, non Mars.
Marko Papic:
00:56:52
'cause you know, his Starship blew up so we know it wasn't Mars.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:56
He, he was wearing an Occupy Mars shirt, to which I
Jacob Shapiro:
00:56:59
say, Elon, what are you waiting for?
Jacob Shapiro:
00:57:01
Please go.
Jacob Shapiro:
00:57:02
Sorry,
Marko Papic:
00:57:03
you, it was just, uh, it was just such a hilarious, like, oh
Marko Papic:
00:57:06
my God, this increases the deficit.
Marko Papic:
00:57:08
Of course it does.
Marko Papic:
00:57:09
Um, and it always was going to, um, I actually, uh, am gonna take a hot
Marko Papic:
00:57:15
take here, which is not a popular one.
Marko Papic:
00:57:17
Uh, whether you're a conservative or a liberal, um, I don't think it really
Marko Papic:
00:57:23
increases the deficit by that much.
Marko Papic:
00:57:25
I. You know, uh, this is not to say that the US deficit is not very large.
Marko Papic:
00:57:30
It's between seven and 8% and it's going to be for the next
Marko Papic:
00:57:34
10 years, which is insane.
Marko Papic:
00:57:36
And it's insane, uh, not because having an 8% deficit is a bad thing.
Marko Papic:
00:57:40
Um, but because there are moments when you need to expand your deficits to offset
Marko Papic:
00:57:45
the loss of private sector, um, you know, economic activity such as in a recession.
Marko Papic:
00:57:51
So when a recession happens, you should be in a deficit.
Marko Papic:
00:57:54
There's nothing bad with that.
Marko Papic:
00:57:55
You have to go into deficits to offset and get the economy back on track.
Marko Papic:
00:58:00
And when you are at 8% deficit with no recession, that's
Marko Papic:
00:58:05
a really bad place to be.
Marko Papic:
00:58:07
It means that you don't have any room to stimulate if a recession happens.
Marko Papic:
00:58:12
And I wanna spend a little bit of time, um.
Marko Papic:
00:58:15
Here.
Marko Papic:
00:58:15
A a lot of, a lot of my clients, very sophisticated investors, but
Marko Papic:
00:58:18
also just like regular people, you know, or twitterati if you will.
Marko Papic:
00:58:23
Uh, a lot of people expect there to be some sort of a calamity.
Marko Papic:
00:58:27
You know, there's gonna be a giant bond market riot
Marko Papic:
00:58:30
because the deficits are large.
Marko Papic:
00:58:32
Um, America is basically gonna default.
Marko Papic:
00:58:35
Uh, it doesn't have to actually happen.
Marko Papic:
00:58:38
It can just be a slow burn.
Marko Papic:
00:58:40
You know, you don't have to have a heart attack.
Marko Papic:
00:58:42
You can just basically slowly die over a period of 10 years.
Marko Papic:
00:58:48
Why?
Marko Papic:
00:58:49
Because interest rates are going to remain very elevated for the private
Marko Papic:
00:58:53
sector, which includes both corporates.
Marko Papic:
00:58:56
It also means you trying to buy a home with a mortgage, you're gonna
Marko Papic:
00:59:00
have to lock in at a much higher rate.
Marko Papic:
00:59:02
And the reason for this is very simple, when the government has a
Marko Papic:
00:59:06
lot of debt and it has to constantly refinance that debt in the markets.
Marko Papic:
00:59:12
Imagine it's like a government having a credit card.
Marko Papic:
00:59:15
Um, and that credit card is constantly carrying like a $50,000, you know,
Marko Papic:
00:59:20
bill over and over every month.
Marko Papic:
00:59:22
The interest rate on that is going to be, uh, very high, and there's
Marko Papic:
00:59:25
not gonna be a lot of demand in the economy for non-government debt.
Marko Papic:
00:59:32
So whenever interest rate is applied to government debt, the private sector
Marko Papic:
00:59:36
always has to pay a higher interest rate.
Marko Papic:
00:59:39
And the difference between the government and the private sector is
Marko Papic:
00:59:41
the government can print money and can raise taxes whenever it wants.
Marko Papic:
00:59:45
Like the government can get revenue whenever it wants by just taxing you more.
Marko Papic:
00:59:49
So it will always have a lower rate of interest.
Marko Papic:
00:59:52
It will always cost it less than just private individuals.
Marko Papic:
00:59:56
And because of this, the government will get refinanced
Marko Papic:
00:59:59
at 4.5% on its 10 year debt.
Marko Papic:
01:00:02
But that means that your 30 year mortgage is gonna have to be six or 7%.
Marko Papic:
01:00:07
It's not gonna come down.
Marko Papic:
01:00:09
I think that this is something that will over the next 12 months
Marko Papic:
01:00:13
become the political issue in the United States of America.
Marko Papic:
01:00:15
People will begin to associate, it, will start to understand the math
Marko Papic:
01:00:21
because enough people, especially millennials who are not pretty old,
Marko Papic:
01:00:24
like, you know, I'm a millennial.
Marko Papic:
01:00:25
I'm 43 years old.
Marko Papic:
01:00:28
Millennials are going to start being like, wait a minute.
Marko Papic:
01:00:30
Why don't I own a home at 45, 43, 40, 39?
Marko Papic:
01:00:34
The interest rates are too high, but I saved all this money and all this
Marko Papic:
01:00:37
crypto, you know, I made all this money with Bitcoin, like I can afford a down
Marko Papic:
01:00:42
payment, but I just don't wanna lock myself in with a, uh, interest rate of 7%.
Marko Papic:
01:00:49
And it's that connection between the rate of interest, the cost of
Marko Papic:
01:00:54
financing, and the government debt.
Marko Papic:
01:00:58
So cost of financing for individuals and corporates and government debt.
Marko Papic:
01:01:01
I think that connection is going to be, start being made.
Marko Papic:
01:01:04
Um mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:01:05
And I think that.
Marko Papic:
01:01:06
What I would say my hot stake here is that yes, this big beautiful
Marko Papic:
01:01:10
bill does add to the budget deficit.
Marko Papic:
01:01:12
Although if you actually take tariff revenues, assuming that
Marko Papic:
01:01:16
the 10% tariff remains, it's actually pretty flat to be honest.
Marko Papic:
01:01:21
So if any, you know, if I hear a bunch of liberals coming out, like,
Marko Papic:
01:01:26
you know, a couple of months from now seeing that President Trump's big,
Marko Papic:
01:01:29
beautiful bill added to the deficit, you know what, like, do some math.
Marko Papic:
01:01:35
Look at what Joe Biden did.
Marko Papic:
01:01:37
Look at what Trump and Nancy Pelosi did together as a, as a, as a loving
Marko Papic:
01:01:41
couple running the country in 2020.
Marko Papic:
01:01:43
Like this is not this, this bill is the least profligate bill of anything
Marko Papic:
01:01:50
that was passed by the United States of America over the last like seven years.
Marko Papic:
01:01:53
So like, relax.
Marko Papic:
01:01:55
So, no, this is not the issue.
Marko Papic:
01:01:58
The issue is this.
Marko Papic:
01:01:59
I'm fine
Jacob Shapiro:
01:01:59
with that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:01:59
Just, just to be clear, that's not saying that much, that this is the least
Jacob Shapiro:
01:02:02
profitable of the last seven years.
Marko Papic:
01:02:04
I know.
Marko Papic:
01:02:04
No, no, no, but exactly.
Marko Papic:
01:02:06
But this is a truly a bipartisan effort to fuck up American finances.
Marko Papic:
01:02:12
That's the point.
Marko Papic:
01:02:12
It's been a bipartisan, like, if you wanna find some bipartisanship, there you go.
Marko Papic:
01:02:16
It's the budget deficit.
Marko Papic:
01:02:17
It's beautiful.
Marko Papic:
01:02:18
Like it's, it's a source of love between the two parties.
Marko Papic:
01:02:21
But what I'm getting at is that my hot take, Jacob?
Marko Papic:
01:02:25
Is that this is it.
Marko Papic:
01:02:26
This is the last one because from here on out, the politics are gonna pivot.
Marko Papic:
01:02:32
Uh, and actually the politics already pivoted in January, which is why this
Marko Papic:
01:02:35
bill is adding $2 trillion to the deficit and perhaps not even if we
Jacob Shapiro:
01:02:40
2 trillion.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:02:40
I thought, where, where are you getting 2 trillion?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:02:42
I've seen 3.8 is the number that I've seen people settle on.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:02:45
Where's your math?
Marko Papic:
01:02:46
Uh, 2.3 trillion from CBO.
Marko Papic:
01:02:50
From CBO, I thought it was 3.8.
Marko Papic:
01:02:53
Well between two, 2.5 and 3.5.
Marko Papic:
01:02:56
That's fine.
Marko Papic:
01:02:57
The point is, the point is it's over 10 years, just to be clear.
Marko Papic:
01:03:01
Um, so nowhere close to the kind of spending that we did during COVID.
Marko Papic:
01:03:06
Uh, and the second issue is that that doesn't count the tariff
Marko Papic:
01:03:08
revenue, uh, which is somewhere between one and a half in 2 trillion,
Marko Papic:
01:03:13
uh, assuming eight 10% across the board's tariff, not assuming all the
Marko Papic:
01:03:17
nonsense that was done on April 2nd.
Marko Papic:
01:03:19
So this bill is either flat and doesn't add to the deficit, or it adds 1
Marko Papic:
01:03:24
trillion over 10 years, which is a joke given the current size or the deficit.
Marko Papic:
01:03:29
The point, the, the whole point of this, the whole point is that that's the
Marko Papic:
01:03:33
peak and I think that politics is going to start moving the other direction.
Marko Papic:
01:03:38
Uh, again, it already did.
Marko Papic:
01:03:40
I think that this bill was supposed to be five to 7 trillion,
Marko Papic:
01:03:43
but they actually found cuts.
Marko Papic:
01:03:45
I. To add to it, which was not something that was, uh, expected in 2024.
Marko Papic:
01:03:51
Uh, in 2024.
Marko Papic:
01:03:52
One of the reasons that the dollar rallied, and one of the reasons that,
Marko Papic:
01:03:55
you know, everybody thought that Trump would bring growth was that he would
Marko Papic:
01:03:58
simply repeat what he did in 2017, but the macro conditions are not there for that.
Marko Papic:
01:04:03
And so the bond market rioted in November and December of last year and
Marko Papic:
01:04:07
forced the House of Representatives to basically add cuts to this bill.
Marko Papic:
01:04:14
And by the way, just to, yeah, there's,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:16
yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:04:17
Just one last point just to show the difference
Marko Papic:
01:04:19
in the political context.
Marko Papic:
01:04:21
In 2017, when the Republicans passed the original tax cuts that were now
Marko Papic:
01:04:26
extending, it was passed without any cuts.
Marko Papic:
01:04:31
It was completely and utterly just unfunded.
Marko Papic:
01:04:34
This one, they actually found a lot of cuts, uh, and they actually introduced it.
Marko Papic:
01:04:39
And so that's why the bill is not five to 7 trillion over the next 10 years.
Marko Papic:
01:04:44
It's two to 3 trillion.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:46
Yeah, it's funny, as you were talking, I was trying to find the,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:49
the CBO and I've got two different CBOs.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:51
One estimate is 2.3 trillion, one is 3.8 trillion.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:54
So I guess it's somewhere between 2.3 and 3.8 trillion is the estimate of
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:57
what it's gonna add, uh, to the deficit.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:04:59
And we'll see what happens with the Senate.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:01
I mean, there, there, it's not just like, we can talk about the spending issue too.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:04
I mean, there's some hot button stuff in here, like the changes to Medicaid are
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:08
gonna theoretically save $625 billion, but are estimated to push almost 8 million
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:15
Americans off of healthcare coverage.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:17
Um, and if you start messing with people's healthcare, I feel like the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:20
politics is gonna change around that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:22
There's also, like, I had never, maybe I'm just a, a new bio with this.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:26
I had never heard of salt taxes.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:27
And now the idea that there's like this huge increased cap on state and local,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:31
local tax deductions, like funny there and all, all the green energy stuff.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:35
I mean, I don't know that, that again seems just like
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:37
shooting ourselves in the foot.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:38
Also, glad I went ahead and put solar on my house last year rather
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:41
than waiting, uh, until this year.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:43
Um, but I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:43
I mean, if I was gonna take the opposite side, um, well, I, I guess I can't take
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:47
the opposite side because you're saying that you think this is gonna get passed
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:50
and that just makes the problem worse.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:51
You just don't think that there's gonna be any more gravy after this one.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:54
That this is the last one.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:05:55
Is that the right characterization of what you're saying?
Marko Papic:
01:05:57
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:05:58
Uh, basically, uh, this is it, you know, a budget deficit around seven
Marko Papic:
01:06:01
to 8%, um, over the course of the next, um, you know, 10 years is
Marko Papic:
01:06:08
unsustainable because we will have a recession at some point, you assume.
Marko Papic:
01:06:12
Um, and that will require the deficit to go even higher.
Marko Papic:
01:06:16
Um, and also the bond market is basically saying, look, we're not gonna riot.
Marko Papic:
01:06:22
There's not going to be some sort of a calamity where, you know, bond
Marko Papic:
01:06:25
yields go through the roof, but we'll just stay at a very high level.
Marko Papic:
01:06:29
So you're not gonna have a heart attack, but you're extremely
Marko Papic:
01:06:31
unfit and can't climb stairs.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:06:34
And how do you think that's gonna change us politics?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:06:37
Like, well, because the, the hard thing for me to imagine is that you're
Jacob Shapiro:
01:06:40
gonna get a real impetus towards fiscal like conservatism because like,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:06:46
people are just used to the goodies.
Marko Papic:
01:06:48
Well, let's talk about that.
Marko Papic:
01:06:49
So the, the way it's gonna happen is that, um, we're gonna be in a permanent state
Marko Papic:
01:06:54
of high interest rates, and eventually people are gonna ask why, why are we
Marko Papic:
01:06:59
in a permanent state of high interest rates, which constrain economic growth,
Marko Papic:
01:07:02
consumption of durable goods of homes?
Marko Papic:
01:07:05
And the answer is going to be, well, because the government is
Marko Papic:
01:07:07
crowding out private sector spending.
Marko Papic:
01:07:12
And private sector investing.
Marko Papic:
01:07:13
And this is, by the way, this is something we all learned at 19 years old, crowded
Marko Papic:
01:07:17
into an amphitheater at a university when we took macroeconomics 1 0 1.
Marko Papic:
01:07:21
This is that crowding out effect.
Marko Papic:
01:07:23
This is why you cannot grow the economy with deficits.
Marko Papic:
01:07:26
And so the irony, Jacob, is that fiscal conservatism will be stimulative.
Marko Papic:
01:07:32
This is where the fiscal conservatives and the right wing
Marko Papic:
01:07:35
policies and economics are correct.
Marko Papic:
01:07:38
When your deficits are persistently high, reducing them does actually lead to more
Marko Papic:
01:07:42
growth and even more equitable growth.
Marko Papic:
01:07:44
Like access, you know, access to credit is very important if you're poor.
Marko Papic:
01:07:48
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:07:49
You know, uh, you're not using credit to buy jet skis and boats, although,
Marko Papic:
01:07:54
you know, obviously some people are.
Marko Papic:
01:07:55
But, um, access to credit is how you get a truck so you can get, have a job.
Marko Papic:
01:07:59
So you can be a plumber, uh, or access to credit is how you get
Marko Papic:
01:08:03
a home in a nice neighborhood.
Marko Papic:
01:08:04
Or it's how you send your kids to college.
Marko Papic:
01:08:06
So access to credit is very important.
Marko Papic:
01:08:08
It's not pernicious, it's not bad.
Marko Papic:
01:08:10
But when the government has basically taken all the supply of, you know,
Marko Papic:
01:08:15
bond buying, that there is, there is no more supply for the private sector.
Marko Papic:
01:08:20
And so that's where cutting the deficit will become stimulative.
Marko Papic:
01:08:25
Uh, and I think that over the next, um, you know, this, this bill
Marko Papic:
01:08:28
basically was al already surprised.
Marko Papic:
01:08:31
It, already surprised how conservative it was.
Marko Papic:
01:08:34
And again, I know the mainstream media is not labeling it as such because liberal
Marko Papic:
01:08:38
media wants to paint, paint Trump as being profligate and irresponsible.
Marko Papic:
01:08:42
And I mean, on some level he is.
Marko Papic:
01:08:44
But I don't think that the media is properly telling investors,
Marko Papic:
01:08:49
and also just regular listeners, how much lower this deficit is.
Marko Papic:
01:08:55
Like how much less of a deficit this bill is bringing to the
Marko Papic:
01:08:58
table than it could have.
Marko Papic:
01:09:00
If you actually listened to Trump's um, election platform,
Marko Papic:
01:09:05
it was 10 to $15 trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:09:08
Extending the 2017 tax cuts alone.
Marko Papic:
01:09:11
Jacob is 5 trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:09:13
Just that alone is 5 trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:09:15
Just keeping our taxes the same.
Marko Papic:
01:09:16
You and I since we're US citizens and we live in America just keeping
Marko Papic:
01:09:21
our taxes the same cost 5 trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:09:25
And yet this bill is somehow between two to 3 trillion
Marko Papic:
01:09:29
additive to the deficit only.
Marko Papic:
01:09:32
So I think that the zeitgeist has already changed.
Marko Papic:
01:09:34
I mean, clearly it has.
Marko Papic:
01:09:36
Uh, in 2017 the tax cuts were unfunded.
Marko Papic:
01:09:38
Now they're partially funded.
Marko Papic:
01:09:39
Uh, going forward, I think this pendulum is gonna swing even
Marko Papic:
01:09:42
further towards fiscal conservatism.
Marko Papic:
01:09:44
And the reason for that is not because government spending is bad.
Marko Papic:
01:09:47
I hate that it's not, government spending is sometimes extremely good,
Marko Papic:
01:09:51
but in this particular case, we're just running such a high deficit
Marko Papic:
01:09:55
that it's basically preventing you.
Marko Papic:
01:09:58
Yes, you listening to this, buying a home with a reasonable mortgage rate, I.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:06
Yeah, I'm, I'm not a, well, I, I'm, I'm struggling.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:10
I'm struggling.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:11
I, I get the zag that you're trying to make.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:13
Um, and, and yes, like it's, it's the art of the deal.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:16
He started at 10 to 15 trillion and now it's down to two to 3 trillion, but
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:19
it's two, it's still two to 3 trillion, um, that, that's being added on.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:23
So it, it's hard for, it's hard, and maybe I'm guilty of anchoring to the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:26
10 to 15, uh, trillion or anchoring to the liberal media, but to me it just
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:30
seems like, um, yet another, I mean, and, and I also, I'm so uncomfortable.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:34
I'm like literally squirming in my chair, being in a position
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:36
to agree with Elon Musk.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:38
Uh, but here I am like squirming in my chair, being like, okay.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:41
And I felt this way about the first Trump administration too.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:43
Like the one thing I really, really liked from the first Trump administration.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:48
Um, platform was infrastructure spending.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:51
And I feel like we got everything but the infrastructure spending.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:54
And the one thing I actually really liked about the Trump platform was,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:10:56
oh, maybe like a return to some like, notion of fiscal like responsibility.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:01
And there's not, there's there, to me, there is no fiscal responsibility here.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:04
It's just the gravy train is gonna keep going.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:06
And the idea and like the things were, are gonna have to get really
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:09
bad for the normal American, um, citizen in order for the government
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:14
to say, okay, we do have to cut back.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:16
And then it's also just, um, it's, it's all of the policies smooshed together.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:20
So if, if you take what you're talking about with the one beautiful bill in a
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:24
vacuum, like, okay, I can sort of get all the way there, but then you start,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:27
you know, remembering that, well, part of what they're accounting for is that tariff
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:32
revenue is gonna pay for some of this.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:34
And I mean, I think the tariff policy is nonsensical and that
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:38
most of these tariffs won't be here probably in six to 12 months.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:40
And if they are, it'll be like negative on the US government.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:43
You, you pair all this stuff with, okay, but you're also
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:46
like killing the universities.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:48
You are making it impossible for international students to come here.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:51
Uh, immigration migration is also sort of stalled, so you're not getting that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:55
So maybe we're gonna get labor shortages and higher labor costs and then
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:58
we're gonna get labor cost inflation.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:11:59
What happens if we actually got.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:01
Something that happened in the Middle East or, um, that caused,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:05
you know, energy prices to go up.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:07
Or like what if energy prices stay low for so long that American shale
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:11
producers are out of the game and then you get a sudden spike and what are the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:14
inflation numbers gonna look like there?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:16
Food prices here, they're not nearly where they were like,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:19
you know, three, four years ago, but they're starting to tick up.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:21
They're appreciably above where they were last year and like
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:24
trending in the wrong direction.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:25
So you start like putting all of these things together and then you think about
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:28
a United States that, to your point, has no fiscal space anymore, has done
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:32
the max of what it can possibly do.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:34
And what did it get with that?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:35
It didn't get beautiful infrastructure or manufacturing capacity or innovation.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:41
It got nothing out of it.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:12:43
Just like,
Marko Papic:
01:12:44
yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:12:44
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:12:44
Like the 2017 tax cuts basically just stay.
Marko Papic:
01:12:48
Um, so a couple of things that I would say.
Marko Papic:
01:12:50
First of all, tariffs are like taxes.
Marko Papic:
01:12:52
They are taxes, they're, yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:12:54
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:12:54
There's a Laffer curve.
Marko Papic:
01:12:56
Basically, if I were to tax you at a hundred percent Jacob, you would quit.
Marko Papic:
01:13:01
Become like a glee, a professional gleesing, you know what I mean?
Marko Papic:
01:13:04
Like I wish God, that'd be great.
Marko Papic:
01:13:08
And the reason is that you don't have an incentive to work anymore at 90% taxes.
Marko Papic:
01:13:14
Similarly, if I were to tax and import at 50%, you would just not import it.
Marko Papic:
01:13:21
You would just stop consuming or you would buy an American
Marko Papic:
01:13:23
alternative, uh, at which point you would get no revenue from tariffs.
Marko Papic:
01:13:29
And that's why there is this like counterintuitive point.
Marko Papic:
01:13:33
If you wanna raise money from tariffs, you can't manufacture at home.
Marko Papic:
01:13:38
Lemme say that again.
Marko Papic:
01:13:39
If you want to raise revenue from tariffs, you have to continue to participate
Marko Papic:
01:13:44
in globalization and trade because you're raising revenue from imports.
Marko Papic:
01:13:51
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:13:51
And that's why you are right.
Marko Papic:
01:13:53
What's going to stay is probably just that 10% across the board tariff.
Marko Papic:
01:13:58
But the 10% across the board tariff is small enough that it will allow
Marko Papic:
01:14:02
tariff, like tariff revenue to be collected and imports to continue.
Marko Papic:
01:14:07
The US is not going to shift that manufacturing domestically, but
Marko Papic:
01:14:11
it will also be able to raise about one and a half trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:14:14
Now, some of the estimates are two and a half.
Marko Papic:
01:14:17
I go with the least, um, least optimistic one from the Peterson Institute.
Marko Papic:
01:14:22
I think that's the most appropriate.
Marko Papic:
01:14:23
So one and a half trillion will be raised, and that's what I'm seeing.
Marko Papic:
01:14:26
I think this bill is actually far more conservative than people understand.
Marko Papic:
01:14:30
It raises deficit by two to 3 trillion, but I'm comfortable
Marko Papic:
01:14:34
assigning one and a half trillion dollars worth of revenues from tariffs
Marko Papic:
01:14:37
because globalization continues.
Marko Papic:
01:14:39
Americans will continue to buy bicycles from China no matter what
Marko Papic:
01:14:41
National Security Hawk psychopaths say.
Marko Papic:
01:14:44
And effectively that 10% will raise one and a half trillion dollars.
Marko Papic:
01:14:49
So that's the first thing I would say.
Marko Papic:
01:14:51
That's where I think that maybe we're.
Marko Papic:
01:14:54
Well, it's funny because Trump himself calls it a big, beautiful bill.
Marko Papic:
01:14:57
I would say, uh, it is a mod, moderately sized, and yet somehow still functional.
Marko Papic:
01:15:04
Bill, you know, was that a phallic joke perhaps?
Marko Papic:
01:15:08
Um, it's not that big, you know, Donald, it's not that
Marko Papic:
01:15:13
big but me, you know, it works.
Marko Papic:
01:15:16
So that's the first thing I would say.
Marko Papic:
01:15:17
The second thing I would say is that the P research actually has a great poll
Marko Papic:
01:15:22
that looks at the share of respondents who say the deficit reduction should
Marko Papic:
01:15:26
be a top priority of the US government.
Marko Papic:
01:15:28
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:15:29
And that p research poll is fascinating because it actually hits some of
Marko Papic:
01:15:34
the very important macroeconomic moments of US history Exactly.
Marko Papic:
01:15:39
Correctly.
Marko Papic:
01:15:40
For example, after 2008, it goes from 50% of Americans think the deficit
Marko Papic:
01:15:46
reduction is important to 70 by 2012.
Marko Papic:
01:15:50
And that's the birth of the tea party.
Marko Papic:
01:15:52
The Tea Party was born out of this concern about the deficits, and the Tea
Marko Papic:
01:15:57
Party got a lot of flack for a lot of things they did, but the Tea Party in
Marko Papic:
01:16:01
Barack Obama, both of them together, and I think both of them deserve credit.
Marko Papic:
01:16:06
The conservatives obviously always give it to the Tea Party.
Marko Papic:
01:16:09
The liberals give it to Obama, but both of them sat down and actually
Marko Papic:
01:16:12
reduced the US deficit from 10% to 3%, two and a half, like just under three.
Marko Papic:
01:16:22
So the US deficit shrunk from 10% in 2000 and uh, 10 to basically, uh, by
Marko Papic:
01:16:30
2015 it was like, I think under 3%.
Marko Papic:
01:16:33
That's an extraordinary amount of deficit cutting.
Marko Papic:
01:16:35
And it happened democratically through a legislative process.
Marko Papic:
01:16:38
Now it was very painful, and that pain led to voters not
Marko Papic:
01:16:43
caring about deficit reduction.
Marko Papic:
01:16:44
And you can actually see on the chart the share of respondents who say the
Marko Papic:
01:16:47
deficit reduction should be a top priority, declines down to 40% by 2021.
Marko Papic:
01:16:52
We're now in a post pandemic world.
Marko Papic:
01:16:54
Everybody wants infrastructure just like Jacob does.
Marko Papic:
01:16:57
Everyone's cool with it.
Marko Papic:
01:16:59
And we start spending, and Donald Trump takes advantage of this
Marko Papic:
01:17:03
decline in political support for, for basically prudence.
Marko Papic:
01:17:07
He passes the tax cuts in 2017 without any offsets at all.
Marko Papic:
01:17:11
Just blows the budget deficit for the first time since the sixties in what
Marko Papic:
01:17:16
economists would call a pro-cyclical way.
Marko Papic:
01:17:18
First time since the sixties that America expanded its
Marko Papic:
01:17:21
deficit outside of a recession.
Marko Papic:
01:17:23
And then of course, during the pandemic.
Marko Papic:
01:17:27
Both President Trump and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, basically
Marko Papic:
01:17:32
start out doing one, one another who's gonna, you know, blow through the
Marko Papic:
01:17:35
deficit more because it's the pandemic.
Marko Papic:
01:17:37
And then Joe Biden famously, when he became the president in
Marko Papic:
01:17:40
early 2021, blows out another 2.1 trillion for no really good reason.
Marko Papic:
01:17:45
Like that one, I think was the most egregious act of fiscal responsibility
Marko Papic:
01:17:49
that that February, 2021, that early 2021, basically decision to just do
Marko Papic:
01:17:55
some more helicopter drops to the American public, because why not?
Marko Papic:
01:17:59
Even though we had a vaccine on the way we knew it was coming, and
Marko Papic:
01:18:03
it was pretty clear that lockdowns were not gonna last anymore.
Marko Papic:
01:18:06
The point is that this line bottomed in 2022.
Marko Papic:
01:18:10
This support for deficit reduction bottomed at 40%.
Marko Papic:
01:18:14
Only 40% of Americans thought in 21 that this was important.
Marko Papic:
01:18:18
It's now back up to 60.
Marko Papic:
01:18:20
It's back up to 60 Jacob from 40 to 60% in four years.
Marko Papic:
01:18:23
Why?
Marko Papic:
01:18:24
Because voters are kind of not stupid.
Marko Papic:
01:18:28
And they understand that inflation was one of the consequences
Marko Papic:
01:18:31
of all this fiscal orgy.
Marko Papic:
01:18:33
And the second thing that I think voters understand is this crowding out effect.
Marko Papic:
01:18:37
They're starting to ask questions like, wait, why?
Marko Papic:
01:18:40
Why is this auto loan, like I was able to afford a car, buy a car and have an
Marko Papic:
01:18:45
interest rate on my auto loan at like 3%?
Marko Papic:
01:18:48
Now it's at like 7%.
Marko Papic:
01:18:50
Why?
Marko Papic:
01:18:50
Why is my mortgage not 2%?
Marko Papic:
01:18:53
Why don't we have 2% mortgages for 30 years?
Marko Papic:
01:18:56
And the answer to all of this is the deficit.
Marko Papic:
01:18:59
And so that's why I'm, I think, uh, first of all, I can empirically prove to you
Marko Papic:
01:19:03
that the directionality of this is moving towards more, uh, fiscal conservatism.
Marko Papic:
01:19:07
But the other one is that historically I think a lot of people are very reticent.
Marko Papic:
01:19:11
You know, there's this very callous and glib view.
Marko Papic:
01:19:14
The democracy always stands towards socialism and towards more spending that
Marko Papic:
01:19:19
voters will never vote to cut themselves.
Marko Papic:
01:19:21
Their entitlement benefits that.
Marko Papic:
01:19:24
Is repeatedly throughout history proven incorrect.
Marko Papic:
01:19:28
Argentina just elected a dude with a chainsaw and he was carrying a
Marko Papic:
01:19:32
chainsaw for a very symbolic reason.
Marko Papic:
01:19:34
IE I'm gonna cut The government people voted for him.
Marko Papic:
01:19:38
Margaret Cher did not mince words about what she was gonna do.
Marko Papic:
01:19:41
David Cameron in 2010, same thing.
Marko Papic:
01:19:44
Um, and similarly again, Obama and the tea Party got together and actually
Marko Papic:
01:19:49
shrunk the deficit from 10 to 3%.
Marko Papic:
01:19:51
Not because they were doing something voters didn't want.
Marko Papic:
01:19:54
No, no, no.
Marko Papic:
01:19:54
It was the voters that pushed them to that.
Marko Papic:
01:19:57
Uh, and you can measure where voters are on this kind of like,
Marko Papic:
01:20:00
um, you know, profligate versus conservative line through just polling.
Marko Papic:
01:20:06
And I'm telling you, it's moving in the other direction.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:09
Don't you miss the days of, uh, you know, civil cooperation
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:13
between the Obamas and the Tea Party when our, our discourse was so civil and we
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:17
were working together, uh, in order to reduce the deficit and things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:21
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:21
This has been a trope.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:23
This has been a trope in our podcast.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:24
Uh, you might be right about this, so I feel like I need to think
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:26
about a little bit more, but I will disagree with you until the day
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:29
that I die that the voters are smart or know anything, they're morons.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:32
The Cornell University Lee Club cured me of my toxic masculinity,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:35
but not of my intellectual elitism.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:37
It's all a bunch of idiots.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:38
Um,
Marko Papic:
01:20:40
well, you know what I would say, I would say that, uh,
Marko Papic:
01:20:43
voters over the long term approximate good judgment, asymptotically.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:52
I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:53
I, I don't think so.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:53
And your ar I don't think your Argentina example actually helps you that much
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:56
because things had to get, you literally had to get to hyperinflation and people
Jacob Shapiro:
01:20:59
had to get, so, like, things had to get so bad in Argentina that they were
Jacob Shapiro:
01:21:03
literally willing to elect any crazy person who was just seen as different, um,
Marko Papic:
01:21:09
which, yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:21:10
You know, and, and there's a lot of examples of that, by the way.
Marko Papic:
01:21:12
Uh, after the financial crisis in Greece, massive fiscal consolidation.
Marko Papic:
01:21:17
Greece is now doing really, I mean, relatively well, uh, not
Marko Papic:
01:21:21
really well, but relatively well.
Marko Papic:
01:21:22
Uh, we talked about that recently.
Marko Papic:
01:21:24
Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:
01:21:24
Uh, you know, um, so yes, you are right that financial crisis do help.
Marko Papic:
01:21:29
They help push in this direction.
Marko Papic:
01:21:32
Um, but again, you know, it doesn't have to be a financial crisis.
Marko Papic:
01:21:36
It can also just be a, a slow burn.
Marko Papic:
01:21:38
And that's what I'm telling you.
Marko Papic:
01:21:39
What I'm basically telling you, Jacob, is that we have a slow burn.
Marko Papic:
01:21:42
We have a burden on the economy, which is the high interest rates,
Marko Papic:
01:21:45
and they're not going away.
Marko Papic:
01:21:47
And it's gonna be very difficult to overcome that.
Marko Papic:
01:21:50
Unless the government actually.
Marko Papic:
01:21:53
Releases some of that potential by cutting its own debt burden.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:21:58
Um, yeah, and I, and I think that counterfactual,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:00
'cause I we're, we're gonna talk about this I think throughout the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:03
course of the rest of six, 12 months.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:04
'cause I think you are correct that this is gonna be like the Rubicon or
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:07
this is gonna be like the thing that is gonna animate politics going forward.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:10
But I, I go back to what I said earlier, which is, I'm with you sort of a ways
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:14
there, but I think what's different about this time is that the populace
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:17
have captured in large part the state and populace are not going to cut spending.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:23
Populists have to keep on giving the goodies in order to maintain,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:28
uh, their political positions.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:30
And Trump, and we talked about Bernie earlier, also a populist, like a
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:33
lot of these folks that are in the house, these are populists, these
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:36
are not people that I think are gonna turn their back on on this spending.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:39
They couldn't do it even though like they're, you know, you had
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:41
Doge and these other things.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:42
Wandering around trying to do that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:44
And I think the problem is that even with, even like, let's accept the argument,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:48
like let's say, okay, it's only 2 trillion, it's, it's not as conservative.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:52
Let's, let's, I don't think we're gonna get a trillion and a half
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:55
of tariff for revenue, but okay, let's say we get the trillion and
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:57
a half of tariff for revenue too.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:22:58
Like, okay, it's still like we got nothing for all of this.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:02
And we're sitting on a society that is not gonna manufacture things, that is giving
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:06
up a lead in innovation that is behind on and is going to be further behind
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:10
on all of these other different things.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:12
And so you're gonna get governments that are gonna look at this equation
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:14
and be like, well, do I keep giving the goodies or do I make the hard cuts and
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:19
take people off social security and take people off Medicare and take people off
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:23
Medicaid and cut us military spending and go after the big ticket budget items
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:28
in order that things are gonna grow.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:29
But like to do that, like you have to rehabilitate the society
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:32
and rehabilitate the economy.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:34
And we're not like, we're not there yet.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:35
Like we're not laying the groundwork for that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:37
So you'll get into this trap where.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:40
Like, it's not gonna be like it was in previous iterations because like
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:44
you would need spending just to get the economy to where it can take
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:47
advantage of what you're talking about.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:48
Does that make sense?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:23:49
Well,
Marko Papic:
01:23:49
actually there is another way to do it, and I think that populists can
Marko Papic:
01:23:52
get us there and it's left-wing populists.
Marko Papic:
01:23:55
And so for everyone out there who's on the center right, all the way to the
Marko Papic:
01:24:00
far right, you know, be very careful with this notion that like, oh, Trump is
Marko Papic:
01:24:05
just gonna be like Nero and burn Rome, because what's waiting in the wings
Marko Papic:
01:24:09
is an alternative way to cut deficits.
Marko Papic:
01:24:14
And it's called raising taxes to the nose bleed levels baby.
Marko Papic:
01:24:19
You know, that's, that's another way you can solve this issue.
Marko Papic:
01:24:23
So we keep talking about cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts.
Marko Papic:
01:24:25
Oh, you know, cuts to Medicare, this, that.
Marko Papic:
01:24:27
But let's be very clear, president Trump is getting none of his
Marko Papic:
01:24:31
priorities from the election.
Marko Papic:
01:24:33
Like, you know, taxes and tips are going through a, a couple of other
Marko Papic:
01:24:35
things, but for the most part.
Marko Papic:
01:24:37
You know, he talked about expanding the deficit, 10 to 15 trillion.
Marko Papic:
01:24:40
Not literally, I mean, he didn't say those words, but when you do the
Marko Papic:
01:24:43
math, you put all of his priorities, he's getting none of those.
Marko Papic:
01:24:47
Jacob, the vast majority of this bill is going, you know what?
Marko Papic:
01:24:52
It's going towards keeping the law the same.
Marko Papic:
01:24:56
And this is what a lot of people don't understand.
Marko Papic:
01:24:58
It costs a lot of money to keep the 2017 tax cuts.
Marko Papic:
01:25:03
Why did they expire?
Marko Papic:
01:25:05
Because they were not funded, as I said earlier.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:08
Yeah.
Marko Papic:
01:25:08
They were not funded and because they were not funded,
Marko Papic:
01:25:11
the reconciliation procedure, which is used to pass the 60 c pejorative
Marko Papic:
01:25:15
said the reconciliation procedure basically forces you to, uh, uh,
Marko Papic:
01:25:21
sunset those, those, uh, that bill.
Marko Papic:
01:25:25
And so the, the fact of the matter, Jacob, is that there's an easy way, easy
Marko Papic:
01:25:30
way to significantly reduce the deficit.
Marko Papic:
01:25:33
I. It would be to just let, uh, the tax cuts of 2017 basically sunset and
Marko Papic:
01:25:39
I expected the next president of the United States of America, if it's not
Marko Papic:
01:25:42
a Republican, will effectively take us back to the tax rates, uh, of pre 2017.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:47
Well, and, and I think you actually, I think you made the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:49
important point here, which is that there's an alternative to what you're
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:52
talking about and that it's on the left and that it's higher taxes, of course.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:55
And, and, and this is where like, I, like I do think some of what's happening.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:25:58
Well, I don't know, like, maybe, maybe Trump is right.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:01
Maybe he really could shoot someone in fifth and fifth Avenue
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:03
and nobody's gonna pay attention.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:05
But when you look at things like, oh, charging however much money so you
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:08
can get access or not, not charging money, uh, however much Trump meme coin
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:13
that you buy, you get personal access to the dinner with President Trump.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:17
Uh, you can buy club memberships for the new club that they're setting up
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:20
in Washington dc I think the starting membership is gonna be $500,000.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:24
All the deals that the Trumps are signing, um, in the Emirates and in the Gulf.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:27
And like, I mean, they've, they've made billions of dollars so far on
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:30
some of these like crypto initiatives.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:32
And I think we should save like crypto and Bitcoin, like for a
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:34
proper conversation down the road.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:36
But which is just to say if the re, if the net result of all of this is that the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:40
rich get richer and that you literally have, um, like the president of the United
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:45
States using the office to enrich himself.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:48
Like that is eventually gonna give the other side fodder for Yeah, tax the rich.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:52
How did they get that money?
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:54
Like, we want some of that piece of the pie that needs to come back into the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:26:57
system rather being taken out by these people who are still manufacturing in
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:01
China or who are, you know, in their ritzy clubs or in their, you know, gold
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:05
plated toilets and things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:06
Like, I think there is a populous move waiting there.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:09
And to your point, if the auto loan rates go up enough and then the mortgage
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:13
rates go up enough and you can't blame the Biden crime family, or you
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:16
can't blame the woke people anymore for that because it was the Trump
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:20
administration that was doing all of it.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:22
Like there is sort of a counter o okay, like let's let's take out the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:26
Franklin Delano Roosevelt playbook.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:28
Let's get taxes up in the 50 to 70% effective range.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:31
Let's do all of this different government spending and hands
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:33
outs and things like that.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:34
Like I do think that's a door, um, that is, that is lurking
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:38
in the background a door.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:39
I think it is.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:27:39
What, what beautiful metaphorical language for me,
Marko Papic:
01:27:42
I think, I think life is about the delta.
Marko Papic:
01:27:46
Life is about perceiving.
Marko Papic:
01:27:47
I mean, markets certainly are, you know, being an investor investment
Marko Papic:
01:27:51
strategist has taught me that.
Marko Papic:
01:27:53
Um, it's not about the levels, it's about the delta.
Marko Papic:
01:27:56
It's about a rate of change.
Marko Papic:
01:27:57
And what I think is the most profound thing is that President Trump walked
Marko Papic:
01:28:01
into office expecting to do what he did in 2017, blow the deficit, five, seven,
Marko Papic:
01:28:08
$10 trillion funding, maybe some of it through some cuts, but not really.
Marko Papic:
01:28:13
And he's been pushed by the combined efforts of the bond market and members
Marko Papic:
01:28:18
of the house to get that down to two to three with sum tariff revenue.
Marko Papic:
01:28:24
And that is actually a shocking rate of change towards a more
Marko Papic:
01:28:30
conservative approach to deficits.
Marko Papic:
01:28:32
Now I think that, I think that over the next five years, that's
Marko Papic:
01:28:36
gonna include some tax increases.
Marko Papic:
01:28:38
Yes.
Marko Papic:
01:28:38
It's not just gonna be finding cuts.
Marko Papic:
01:28:40
You're absolutely right.
Marko Papic:
01:28:41
There's gonna be a little bit more, but right now we can close on this, but.
Marko Papic:
01:28:45
Right now, the United States of America spends more on financing
Marko Papic:
01:28:48
that deficit than on the US military.
Marko Papic:
01:28:51
So just think, you know, that that's ultimately unsustainable
Marko Papic:
01:28:54
and we'll have to change.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:28:58
That's a good place to leave it.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:28:59
Any parting thoughts on the NBA finals before we get outta here?
Marko Papic:
01:29:02
Uh, I mean, you know, so there's a geopolitical
Marko Papic:
01:29:05
s to the, uh, to the finals.
Marko Papic:
01:29:07
I mean, uh, looks like it's gonna be Indianapolis versus Oklahoma City.
Marko Papic:
01:29:12
That is.
Marko Papic:
01:29:12
I,
Jacob Shapiro:
01:29:12
I wouldn't count out the Knicks yet.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:29:14
Uh, I guess we should would
Marko Papic:
01:29:15
not count out the Knicks yet.
Marko Papic:
01:29:17
I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:29:17
Hope Springs eternal.
Marko Papic:
01:29:19
Um, okay.
Marko Papic:
01:29:20
Well if it is Indianapolis versus OKC, though, uh, I just thought it's,
Marko Papic:
01:29:24
it's funny because it's kind of like Trump country, you know, and yet he
Marko Papic:
01:29:28
hates the NBA, which is interesting.
Marko Papic:
01:29:31
Um, and, uh, yeah, I mean, like, it's kind of cool.
Marko Papic:
01:29:35
I think especially for Indianapolis, it's a huge, you know, like basketball city.
Marko Papic:
01:29:39
I think if they make it to the finals, I think that would be kind of fun.
Marko Papic:
01:29:42
Um.
Marko Papic:
01:29:43
I guess the same for OKC.
Marko Papic:
01:29:45
Uh, I've been, I've been to OKC, I've watched the game there.
Marko Papic:
01:29:47
It is, it is a great atmosphere.
Marko Papic:
01:29:49
Um, but as long as the Seattle Supersonics don't exist, I'm
Marko Papic:
01:29:53
always going to be a little bit miffed about OKC, having a team.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:29:58
Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:29:59
I wish I could make it interesting, but I I really, I I, it's gonna be
Jacob Shapiro:
01:30:02
KC that, that seems pretty clear.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:30:04
It's probably gonna be OKC for the rest of the century, unless the
Jacob Shapiro:
01:30:06
Spurs have something to say about it.
Marko Papic:
01:30:09
I think, I think they're, they're a great team.
Marko Papic:
01:30:11
I think, um, you know, dot is amazing.
Marko Papic:
01:30:16
Uh, I think that his defensive prowess is really, really, uh, what sets them apart.
Marko Papic:
01:30:21
One thing I would say though is that I feel that that team has a very
Marko Papic:
01:30:25
high variance on how it's refered.
Marko Papic:
01:30:28
And I don't mean this in a bad way, but like, um, you know, I think that
Marko Papic:
01:30:32
what they did to Yoic was amazing.
Marko Papic:
01:30:35
Um, uh, like Caruso was draped all over him, but every single minute, every
Marko Papic:
01:30:40
single second of that exchange was a foul.
Marko Papic:
01:30:43
And it just came down to whether you're gonna call it or not.
Marko Papic:
01:30:46
And so I don't think that OKC has like a recipe for long-term success
Marko Papic:
01:30:53
because despite the fact that SGA obviously is amazing, I just feel
Marko Papic:
01:30:58
that at some point over the next 12 months, the referees could stop kind
Marko Papic:
01:31:02
of treating them like a novelty.
Marko Papic:
01:31:04
Like, oh my goodness, look at them.
Marko Papic:
01:31:05
They, they beat the crap out of their opponents.
Marko Papic:
01:31:07
So the perimeter, you know, like the reason that Caruso can guard Yoki is
Marko Papic:
01:31:11
'cause you're letting him file him.
Marko Papic:
01:31:13
Um, the reason that.is able to shut people down on the perimeter is that
Marko Papic:
01:31:18
quite often he is following the screener.
Marko Papic:
01:31:21
He is, um, you know.
Marko Papic:
01:31:25
What's the backup point guard?
Marko Papic:
01:31:26
Uh, number 22.
Marko Papic:
01:31:28
My brain just stopped.
Marko Papic:
01:31:29
But, uh, you know, that guy like is a hundred percent using his hands
Marko Papic:
01:31:33
on defense Every ABA play now in the NBA, everyone's just like wrestling.
Marko Papic:
01:31:38
I don't know if you've noticed that.
Marko Papic:
01:31:39
Yeah, that's a lot.
Marko Papic:
01:31:40
Um, and so anyways, um, I'm not sure how sustainable that is in the long term.
Marko Papic:
01:31:45
I think at some point, or, you know, the NBA has these, these waves where they just
Marko Papic:
01:31:50
kinda let something happen 'cause it's novel and they're like, oh wait, that's,
Marko Papic:
01:31:53
that's actually really aggressive defense.
Marko Papic:
01:31:55
No, we're gonna start calling foul.
Marko Papic:
01:31:57
And then suddenly their defense isn't as good as it was in the past.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:32:02
Yeah, that's a fair point.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:32:04
All right, we'll get you outta here.
Jacob Shapiro:
01:32:06
Let's go get some coffee.