833: Mailbag 11/10/23

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zaferrethas Jay Jake zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode eight hundred and thirty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Happy Friday, and thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the questions this week, I want to send another reminder about the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. For ten dollars a month, you get rest of season rankings and tiers, weekly rankings and tiers, live stream Q and as, and more. It's all month to month, so the commitment doesn't have to be a big thing. Like I said earlier this week, I'm not trying to take all of your money. I'm just trying to be able to do this for a living. But check it out if you're interested. You can learn more at lateround dot com. The first question this week is from at Rennibeer on Twitter. It says we've been trying and failing to find a reliable pass catcher on the Chiefs outside of kel seasons before Tyreek Hill left. How is it possible that the best passer in the game can't support two consistent options and is Rashid Rice a flash in the pan or can he be something real? So let me first say that I think the idea of going after a Kansas City Chief's wide receiver, given who's throwing them the ball there, the idea is totally reasonable and logical that you want a Kansas City pass catcher. In this offseason, none of the Chiefs wide receivers had very high ADPs. Even if you drafted sky Moore, he didn't really burn you aside from maybe Week one because his cost wasn't very high. With that being said, the main reason we haven't seen a player emerge outside of Kelsey this season, and really this is just post Tyreek Hill, but I'll just talk about twenty twenty three here, but the Chiefs rotate their wide receivers like crazy. Like we have just one instance where Chiefs wide out this year has run around on eighty percent or more of their dropbacks in a single game. Just last week alone, across the NFL, even with teams on buy, we saw forty five wide receivers have that kind of route participation just last week. That's happened once for the Chiefs all year. Players have to run routes consistently in order to be Fantasy relevant. That's just not happening in Kansas City. And honestly, it's wild to me that they're not giving Rashid Rice a better look. I had my doubts about him as a prospect, but he's been their best wide receiver this year. His two point four yards per rouur run rate is significantly better than anyone else's on the team. Justin Watson is the next wide receiver on that list at one point seven. I think with Rice, you've got to hold on to him and hope that the Chiefs changed things up out of the bye. To me, he's the only hope of getting consistent production at wide receiver in that offense. This NAXT question is from Patreon, is from Gaston. It says, what can we expect from players like Dalton kincaid and Trey McBride when veterans return from ir so in cases like this, we have to just hope for rational coaching. Both of those players are just better than the veterans on their team. They're just flat out better. Dalton Kincaid is better than Dawson Knox. Trey McBride is better than Zach Ertz. Kinkaid's yards per route run is point nine yards higher than Dawson Knox's. This season, Knox has the lowest yards per route run rate among thirty three tight ends with twenty or more targets this season. Like before his injury, Dawson Knox was having a really bad season. I just mentioned that his yards per route run rate is worse to tight end and according to next Gen Stats, his catch rate over expected also worse than the league at tight end. Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid ranks best among twenty plus target tight ends in that category. Kinkaid is just the superior pass catcher, and then with Trey McBride, only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews right now have a higher yards per route run rate than Trey McBride. Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, among those three three tight ends that I was talking about, he rings twenty fifth. When it comes to this kind of evaluation, I'm just gonna lead with talent. If and when the veteran tight ends return, I'm gonna have to hope that their coaches are smart enough to use their more talented players. And to me, Dalon Kincaid, Trey McBride objectively better right now. This last question from Twitter is from at I Stevens twenty two. It says, what's your stance on trading better players but on a buy for worse players when you need a win? Example Tyreek Hill for CD Lamb. Don't do this. When you do something like this, you're obviously foregoing a long term gain for a short term win. But the problem is the short term win it's not only less important, but it's not even a lock to happen. I love CD Lamb. He's bawling out. I expect him to be good this weekend, but there's still a possibility that he's not. So you're taking a downgrade, which you note is a downgrade. You know it's a down grade. You're taking that on and you're not even guaranteeing yourself a win this week. There's obviously still a chance that Cede Lamb outscores Tyreek Hill rest of season. And I really do like CD Lamb rest of season. It's why he was a bye on fifteen transactions a couple of weeks ago. But you shouldn't lose out in the long term for one single week like this. I know that in the moment this week means everything you need to get a win. You absolutely need to get that w and you can make this kind of move with lower profile players. It doesn't have to beat Tyreek Hill for CD Lamb. That's a huge, huge move to make, make the micro transactions in order to get that win this week. This and est course is from twitters from at end Chondra Dad. It says, would you drop Zach Sharbonnat for Keaton Mitchell? So I think this is a low key, really interesting question on process. I do my rest of season rankings each week, and one of the issues with rest of season rankings and really any set of rankings, but one of the issues that they lack context. To me, they're always just a good starting point. But there are gonna be some teams who simply need handcuffs on their bench because they don't need immediate production whatsoever. In those cases, they can roster someone like Rico Dowdell. But in rest of season rankings, do I put someone like Dowbdell ahead of someone like Devin Singletary. Technically Dowdell has more upside. If Tony Pollard gets hurt, we'd probably be starting Rico Dowdell over Devin Singletary, even if Damian Pierce is out, because the Texans run game has been iffy and the Cowboys have some juicy matchups upcoming, but Singletary clearly has the better rest of season projection. There are some instances, though, where you might win a roster Dowdell over Singletary. I'd say it's usually Singletary, but you get my point. It's sort of like that for Keaton Mitchell versus Zach Sharboney. I think without injuries, Mitchell has more intrigue than Zach Sharboney because of his big playability and the fact that his competition is Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. I do think there are plenty of red flags to Mitchell's profile. Still, for the record, He's on a team with a mobile quarterback. They're gonna regress a little bit offensively with how they score their touchdowns, and Mitchell's not necessarily built for a massive workload. I'm just looking at the upside case here, which is essentially Keaton Mitchell being a devon a chan light. The thing is, though, if Kenneth Walker was hurt, Zach Sharbonay will be ranked as an RB one in fantasy football or a fringe RB one. So depending on how you're looking at this, some might consider Mitchell having more upside in fantasy football. There's so much unknown there and he really flashed in Week ten. But I would say that Sharbonay technically has more upside because if an injury hits, he'd likely see a ton of work in a pretty good offense. And Sharbonay is still seeing some work in that offense right now. He might be a viable flex play at times even without a Walker injury. So I do lean Zach Sharbonay here because I think that he's the better player, and I do think the upside case favors Sharbonay. People might disagree with that process. People might disagree with the idea of factoring in injury like that, but that's part of the game. To me, football is a violent game and injuries happen. It's why we're rostering handcuffs all the time. But this one's pretty close if we're being honest, I can make a case either way. I just think it's easy to ignore the injury upside case with Keaton Mitchell. An injury to one of those running backs would definitely help him yes, but there would still likely be a committee, whereas an injury to Kenneth Walker Zach Sharbonay would likely become a bellcowt. This nice question is from Twitter and it says, is Christian Watson droppable in redraft? We've come a long way from Christian Watson has so much upside too, is he droppable? Now? I've been wrong about Wattson this season from a redraft perspective. There's no doubt. Definitely recognized the downside, but I figured the floor would look better than this. But I also think the situation is just worse than what most expected, even with this change of quarterback, at least of late. The truth is, though Christian Watson's peripherals, I know you're rolling your eyes right now, but his peripherals have really not been horrible. I know no one wants to hear that, but it's the truth. He's played meaningful snaps in four games this year. He's in a twenty percent target chair in two of those games since Week five, which is when he started seeing more work in that offense out of his injury. Since Week five, he's eleventh in the NFL in air yards per game. The players ranked ahead of him are legitimately good players Garrett Wilson, Stefan Diggs, AJ Brown, Cede Lamb, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, George Pickens, Jamar Chase, and Amari Cooper. That's it. Right below him is Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill. That's a plus. He's getting those downfield looks. Now, he hasn't been amazingly efficient because he's not converting on those looks, but his one point five to nine yards per route run rate, it's fairly average. Among twenty plus target wide receivers. It ranks in the forty fifth percentile. Do I think that Christian Watson is an easy player to start right now? Of course not. Do I think there are wide receivers or players in general on the waiver wire who possessed these kinds of peripherals in leagues with twelve teams or more. I don't think that's the case. Maybe in a ten teamer, probably an eight teamer, But in your normal twelve team league, Watson is still a better stash than what's out there. More than likely now, I don't think the median outcome for Watson moving forward this season is he's going to find your lineup week in and week out. I just don't think that's the case. But I also don't think that's the case for most stashes. He at least has good peripherals or decent peripherals. We've seen him flash in the past, and he's still a young player, and Green Bay Wideouts, for the record, have a really good rest of season schedule. So right now I'm still holding Christian Watson. I'm just not starting him very confidently. This last one's from at KYO Underscore Rarey on Twitter and it says on today's trend show, you mentioned Madison could be trending up if he sees the volume from the beginning of the season again, But doesn't Josh Dobbs being super mobile potentially take that upside away? Love the show. Shout out from a Brazilian fan. I love my listeners from Brazil. They're absolutely the best. But first off, I don't know if I would call Josh Dobbs super mobile. Super Mobile to me is like Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson players who are averaging nine to ten rush attemps per game, or Justin Fields. Josh Dobbs is at six rush attempts per game this year. For context, Trevor Lawrence is at five point three. I don't think anyone is downgrading their running backs. Keep in mind, too, that the mobile quarterback thing, it's a bigger deal for pass catchers than it is running backs. Dobbs might steal some goal line work, yes, but I don't view Dobbs the same way that I would be someone like Jalen Hurts of the goal line. I made a video for FANDLE this week and it was posted on social media, and the responses to me are exactly why Alexander Madison is a bye. People were trashing Madison and I don't think Madison's a special running back, But eighty five percent running back rush shares in twelve and a half percent target shares don't grow on trees. In fact, the only running backs averaging those numbers this season are Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, and that's what Alexander Madison was averaging without cam Akers. And then there's this schedule component. The Vikings have one of the best running back schedules in the league from here on out. That's a nice added bonus. And keep in mind with Minnesota. They've been one of the past heaviest teams in football this year. Pass rate loosely correlates to how teams score touchdowns. Now, the Vikings have finally scored a couple of rushing touchdowns, but ninety one percent of their touchdowns this season have come through the air. I do think that that's skewing our perception of the value of this backfield. Now. I'm not screaming from the rooftops that Alexander Madison absolutely needs to be traded for because I lead with talent evaluation first, and I don't think he's this amazing running back. But there are so many people out there who think that he's dust, that he's terrible, and I'm just reminding people that Number one, the volume could be there. I hope that ty Chandler gets a fair shot. I really like ty Chandler as a player, but volume is likely to favor Alexander Madison. Number two, Josh Dobbs looked more than competent last week, so Minnesota should have some scoring opportunities. Number three, this schedule is great, and number four, people hate Alexander Madison. That's always a key key part to these by transactions. But I'm not very concerned about Josh Dobbs being a mobile quarterback and that dramatically impacting Madison if anything, is going to hurt a player like Jordan Addison more. But we already knew that when Cousins went down. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found in to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week. Everyone greatly appreciated. I hope you enjoy the Late Round Perspectives that's dropping later today. Otherwise, have a great weekend. I'll talk to you next week.