467: 10 Trends for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha Jay Jake Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at Fandel and a number fire dot com and this episode four hundred and sixty seven of the Late Round Podcast, the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thank you for tuning in. It's the last ten trend show of the year. I hope you enjoy it. But before I get into those trends, I wanted to speak to all the Late Round podcast listeners in Colorado. Last week, FanDuel, bud Light, and the Denver Broncos partnered up to bring you the bud Light Pick and Kick Bonus with one goal in mind, to give you more ways to win this NFL season. This week, they're doing it all over again. The program is simple. For every fueldwal and extra point the Broncos kicker makes against the Chargers on December twenty seventh, fans who placed the money line bet of at least twenty five dollars on the game will receive a three dollars bonus added to their Fandel's sportsbook account. If Denver kicks three field goals and three extra points. That's eighteen dollars in bonus cash. December twenty seventh is right around the corner, So crack open a bud light, download the Fandels Sportsbook mobile app, and place your bet today. Let's kick things off this week with a Russell Wilson trend, something I've done a lot over the last month. Wilson has given us one top ten performance since Week eight. He's averaging two hundred and three yards per game over his last five and over this five game stretch he's thrown multiple touchdowns twice. Things are broken for Seattle right now, and against the Rams defense this week that's given up just two top eighteen performances while allowing the fewest adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I'm telling you right now, Russell Wilson is going to be a sit on the Matchup Show. Before it's too late. Find an alternative. He has a ceiling, of course, because it's Russell Wilson, but objectively his spot in Week sixteen it's horrendous. Over no offense. Last three games played, he's averaged a target share per game of twenty eight point four percent. He's seen target shairs a twenty five percent, twenty five point nine percent, and thirty four point four percent over this time. Now, that hasn't really translated until this past week. One of those games was the Kendall Hinton contest, though, so we can kind of take that with a grain of salt. But a twenty five point nine percent and a thirty four point four percent target share over his last two games is great, and in Week fifteen it all translated to a top five tight end performance. Given the landscape at the position, you should feel pretty good about Noah Fan. In week sixteen, we've got to talk about David Montgomery. The man is crushing fantasy football. Over his last four games, Montgomery has scored one hundred and six point one PPR points. Over his first nine games, that number was one hundred and ten. So much of this is touched on driven, and it is driven by the fact that Chicago's offense hasn't played like a total dumpster fire. Now is that something that will continue. I'm not totally convinced. They faced a pretty easy schedule over this four game stretch, but good teams and good offenses do well in plus matchups, so we can't fault the Bears offense for doing what they've done over the last month. But regarding the touchdowns, Montgomery had two total touchdowns across his first nine games. Over his last four, he's had six. He's also been more efficient and better on the ground, But if there's one obvious difference, it's the scoring. This is why it's always good to associate your running backs with better offenses. They get more scoring opportunities and in turn, they score more fantasy points. Kenny Galladay came back in Week three and he played until Week eight this year. He's been out since, but since that game, Marvin Jones is averaging seventeen point two fantasy points per game in about a twenty four percent target chair per game. Over this time period, he's been the wide receiver twelve and PPR points per game. He's averaging more points than Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Mike Evans, Adam Thieln, the list goes on and on. Jones has been quietly doing really well this year after a super slow start. Trend five this week is all about Miles Sanders. If you've had some hesitation with Sanders and his workload, hopefully the last two weeks make you feel a little bit better. He wasn't unbelievable in Week fifteen, but for the first time all year, Sanders handled one hundred percent of the team's running back rushes. He's now seen about a ninety one percent running back rush here the last two weeks with Jalen Hurts, and now he gets an amazing matchup this week against Dallas. Things have definitely turned around quickly for Miles Sanders. Marquise Brown hasn't had a single wide receiver one top twelve performance this year, but the good news is things are at least trending up. Over the last four weeks, Hollywood has averaged a target share per game of thirty seven and a half percent, and he's scored between thirteen and eighteen and a half PPR points in every single contest. He hasn't had a huge blow up game, but after really struggling for about a month, Brown's starting to really come through in plus matchups. He at least isn't as big of a waste from a fantasy perspective as he was before. Falcons interim head coach Raheem Morris. He said on Monday that Edosmith was the lead back in that backfield now and like, yeah, that's true. That's true. When you look at the usage numbers. Smith saw fifty percent of the team's running back rushes in week fifteen. Brian Hill is at forty two percent. But that backfield is absolutely horrific for fantasy purposes. The entire backfield has combined for forty one fantasy points over the last three weeks. No running back in a single game has scored more than six point two PPR points during this time and on the season, the Falcons have only two performances we're a running back, both being Todd Gurley ended up finishing higher than RB ten. So we're now fifteen weeks into the season and the New England Patriots have a point four to two pass to rush touchdown ratio. The data I work with goes back to twenty eleven and since that time, the lowest pass to rush touchdown ratio before this season was point five to nine by the twenty sixteen Buffalo Bills. New England's current pace of throwing touchdowns this season, it would put them out a little over nine touchdowns by the end of the year. We haven't seen a team with fewer than ten passing touchdowns since the twenty twelve Kansas City Chiefs, things are not going well for this New England passing attack. Aaron Jones had his best backfield share game in a long time this past week. In fact, he had a ninety one percent running back rush share when he hadn't even hit eighty percent this season, and this all happened in a game where Jamal Williams got hurt. That means if he's sidelined in Week sixteen, you can feel even more confident in Aaron Jones's production. The last trend of the year is about Deshaun Watson. Watson hasn't been as good of a fantasy quarterback thus far without will Fuller, but he's still been a good passer because Deshaun Watson is really good, and honestly, he might be underrated. On fifteen plays airyard throws over the last three weeks to three weeks without will Fuller, Watson has completed fifty five percent of his passes for two hundred ninety six yards in a touchdown. He hasn't thrown a pick. His twenty deep ball attempts account for eighteen point three percent of his total attempts with will Fuller, he was completing fifty four percent of those throws, so a lower number than without him. He was throwing a deep on nineteen point three percent of his throws with Will Fuller, so we've seen a decrease about one percent. But basically his ability to complete those passes and his rate of throwing them, that hasn't really changed. Even his yards per attenpt on those throws hasn't fallen dramatically. What has changed is touchdowns. With Fuller, Watson threw a touchdown on fifteen point seven percent of his deep ball throws. Without him, that's dropped to five percent. I do think Fuller has something to do with this. We know that he's a really good wide receiver. But I would also argue that since DeShawn Watson's fifteen plus air yard numbers looked just slightly worse without Will, that Watson does have some regression coming. He should be a strong option in your fantasy football finals. That's gonna know for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly matchup show.