304: Mailbag 10/25/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at FANDL and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and four of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I've been getting some matchup related questions lately, and I don't mean simple start sit ones. I mean higher level ones like talking about when you bench your studs. I'm actually gonna get into that one or a similar one to it in just a second. But I've had a few people hit me up about some of my buy and sell recommendations on the fifteen Transaction show because those recommendations sometimes seem to ignore an upcoming matchup. A perfect example of what I'm talking about is Todd Gurley. This week. He was a sell candidate for all the reasons that I talked about on Tuesday's show. But of course Gurley gets the Cincinnati Defense this week, so selling him before that matchup that seems that's kind of stupid. Now, I don't disagree with the overall idea here, for those of you who want to wait, like I said on the show, feel free to wait. But I tend to go with a more conservative approach because we often think we know more about the future than we actually know. For instance, and again, I like Todd Gurley this week, and I think that he's a good play. But for instance, what happens if Gurley doesn't perform well this week. It's not as though players in good matchups never disappoint, And if Gurley disappoints in almost the best matchup imaginable, what happens? Then you could strongly argue that his value would torpedo from where it's at right now. Odell Beckham's another good example. Maybe you're looking to buy OBJ, but you see that he has the Patriots this week. Okay, very fair point. Probability wise, he's not likely to blow up. But what if he does. What if Cleveland does well and OBJ has a big game and arguably the toughest matchup on paper that you can find in the NFL. It's not like that can't happen. And you may be sitting back saying, well, yeah, JJ, those things can happen. But like you always say, we're playing probability here, Yes we are, but we're also playing the market. When an OPJ manager sees that he's playing New England, it's not like that person is completely unaware that Beckham is facing New England. Just like if Todd Gurley has a good game this week, it's not like someone who would potentially buy him off of you would want Todd Gurley a whole lot more because he was able to beat the freaking Cincinnati Bengals defense. So my point in all this, and why I'm bringing it up, is that, sure, if you know how your league mates think, and you know that you can wait to buy or sell certain players, then sure go for it. But things don't always break so cleanly. There are plenty of instances where players don't perform in good matchups and vice versa. So in some cases you should look to move a player or acquire a player before those matchups happen, just to be safe. Now, before getting in this week's questions, I want to let you know about a pretty cool fandel offer. On October twenty seventh, all four major sports, so football, basketball, hockey, and baseball, they will all be in action on the same day. This rare sports phenomenon is called the Sports Equinox, and it's as magical and rare as a unicorn hitting an inside the park home run. And this year, Fandel's making the Sports Equinox even better. Play the FanDuel Sports Equinox Free play on October twenty seventh for your shot at at least two hundred and seventy thousand dollars in payouts. Here's how it works. All you have to do is pick the winners of each of the twenty six games on October twenty seventh to play. Get twenty or more picks right, and you'll split a share of that payout. 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Maybe you guys feel differently, and I can start doing it, but I like the process related thinking a little bit more than the specifics. But so many of you were asking me about Odell Beckham, I feel like I have to answer it. I've got Beckham in one league this year, and I just like you, I'm worried about this matchup against New England, but look at the positives. He's got over a twenty eight percent target share in Cleveland's offense this year. The Browns are coming off of buy, so maybe they'll be a little bit more prepared. And it's still Odell Beckham. We know he's good and we know he's the best receiver that New England team has faced this season. As I said a few weeks back, New England's defense is really good regardless of the opponent that they've faced. I think the analogy I used was a running one where if someone ran a mile in five minutes, but that mile had no hills, you wouldn't tell that person. But you didn't run up and down any hills it was an easy mile, you'd still say, holy crap, you ran a fast mile. That's the Patriots defense. They're still running a fast mile regardless of the circumstances. But with that being said, would they be running a five minute mile if they were going up and down hills. Probably not. The wide receivers in the passing offense is that they've faced, they've been pretty horrendous. Pittsburgh was a mess in Week one, Miami the Jets twice, with one of those games without Sam Darnold, Buffalo, Washington, and the New York Giants. They haven't faced Odell Beckham or any player like Odell Beckham. The best wide out that they faced was Juju Smith Schuster, who ended up with a six for seventy five line, which, by the way, that looks a lot better here in Week eight given the target share and who he is, I think you still have to play him. I don't believe in start your studs no matter what, because studs is subjective. But I do believe in start your players who are seeing nearly thirty percent of their team's targets because that's what correlates most to fantasy success. And to be clear, he's not a wide receiver one this week. He's probably a lower end wide receiver two. But you should still be in your lineup in a lot of cases. I think it's a tough decision to make, though, so I get why I was asked a lot this week. This next question is from at toss Carly. What do you do when you own a handcuff like Chase Edmonds but you're not a David Johnson owner? Do you try and trade him to the owner or do you keep him? So? To be honest, questions like these are completely dependent on your league situation and what the person who has David Johnson wants to do. If they're willing to give up Le'Veon Bell, of course you trade Chase Edmonds. If they're only willing to trade Cole Beasley, then no, don't trade Edmunds. I wanted to answer this one today because the true answer is to talk to the person who has David Johnson. I get these questions all the time. Instead of just questioning whether or not you can get a trade done, actually initiate the trade talks to see if your roster can get better. This next question is from at Adam k shin what did your prospect model think of Ty Johnson? What are the chances he grabs hold of a big workload with carry on out? So it gave Ti Johnson a score of one point nine to nine, which makes absolutely no sense to any of you because it's an arbitrary number, but it actually in surprisingly ranked just above average within this year's class. Now, a lot of that has to do with this class being a weaker one, so take that with a grain of salt. He had pretty below average marks of things that the model looks for, but he wasn't all that bad because he was really efficient. He's super athletic, which only matters a little bit, and he was at least drafted. So I can't sit back and say that this guy's a stud based on his production profile, but I can say that he at least has some of the right attributes to be someone who could break the mold, which is a player who's at and really efficient, similar to a Kenyan Drake type, which is actually the top comp for him over on playerprofiler dot com. This next question from at Josh underscore ADHD is David Montgomery droppable? No, he's not droppable, and there are a couple of reasons for it. If you're in an eight team league or something, maybe it makes more sense. But let's not pretend like there are lots and lots of running backs sitting on the waiver wire who have an opportunity to see touches. I understand Montgomery barely saw any work last week. That's partially due to gamescript, partially due to game plan, and partially due to Tarik Cohen's presence. But I would make an educated guess that Chicago isn't going to make a mistake like they did in Week seven again this year, where they clearly put too much on Mitch Trubisky and Trubisky himself, remember, was coming off an injury, and that made the way that they run their offense look a little bit worse. But the matchup suck too. New Orleans has a good defense. Now, the main reason to not give up on Montgomery, though, is the combination of him potentially walking into a bigger workload and the Bears also seeing a really nice schedule down the stretch. They still get to face teams like the Giants, Packers, and Chiefs this year, and the Packers and Chiefs games are going down in the fantasy playoffs, so I'd still want to see if the workload increases. I know things haven't been pretty for the Bears, and I do think Montgomery is probably going to end up being an average running back, but I can't imagine in any twelve team league that there are better options off the wire. This next question says, I'd love your take on when, if ever, to take a zero. Let's just say a friend drop Chase Edmonds from a short bench to avoid a quarterback zero. Look, this is a situation where hindsight is clearly twenty twenty. Had David Johnson played this past week and had he done well, your friend wouldn't care at all that he dropped Chase Edmonds. It's based on the result that he's mad. It's not like he dropped DeAndre Hopkins, which would have been a bad process move. But no, I'll rarely take a zero, let alone from the quarterback spot. Points matter a lot in most leagues, even if you're set to lose a matchup. Points are the tiebreaker usually, but not only that. If you think they're gonna lose and you take a zero as a result because you know that you're not gonna win anyway, you're also not embracing the variance of this sport. Football is random. There's at least some randomness to it. We also think that we know so much more than we actually do when we're predicting what's going to happen, So taking a zero from that standpoint, that's a bad idea too. So my answer is I never take a zero. Maybe I wouldn't like defense in a really tough situation, but taking a zero at a higher scoring position in fantasy football doesn't make a whole lot of sense. This next question is from at Chris Rackley. The air raid offense in Arizona clearly isn't working in a keeper league. How long do you hold on to Murray before throwing him back? Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's take a step back here. Clearly isn't working. The Cardinals were dead last and yards per play Last year at four point three, they bring twentieth this year with a rookie quarterback, a bad offensive line, and an inexperienced receiving group. With a five point four yards per play rate, they're fifteenth in yards per drive this year. They're averaging more yards per drive than the Rams, the Eagles, and the Patriots. Last year they were dead last in yards per drive. Let's not say that this clearly is not working. It's been half a season and they're performing probably slightly below average to average across the league. The question is less about the team and more about Murray. I get it, but Murray has had literally one bad fantasy outing. He scored fewer than sixteen fantasy points once. Where were the questions about Aaron Rodgers before this past week or Tom Brady who now has a four point and twelve point performance this season. Now, I don't love Kyler Murray this week. I talked about that on the Matchup show. But why are we acting like Kyler Murray has been this horrendous fantasy asset. He's been totally fine, and the Cardinals offense, all things considered, they haven't been all that bad either. I'm tilting this last question is from at what a boof If you decide to hold fob at this point and not go for, say Ty Johnson, what kind of situation slash play are you hoping for later? Yeah, so this is sort of the evaluation that I do when I'm spending fob, or as some people say, fab, it's fob, guys, it's not fab. I made a Twitter pool yesterday about this, and a vast majority of people think that it's FAB, with a lot of people saying what AA word makes the O sound? What about SOB cars? Do you think that they're sabs? And by the way, SOB is an acronym just like fob. Oh, And if you go to lexico dot com type in the AA sound, here's how they say. It's pronounced. Uh. I'm still tilting you, guys. But back to your question, here's how I generally go about figuring out how to spend my fob. First, I know that it's likely to be a running back. It's the position that can walk into the most work after not having much work at all, which is why the players on waivers in the first place. He's not seeing volume. So let's assume that the most FOB that we're likely to drop on a single guy this year, It's gonna be on a running back. That's what Ty Johnson is. Now, look at the landscape, look at all the beats backfield situations across the league, and ask yourself, if this starting running back went down, how strongly would his backup benefit. And then you have to see if that backup is even available. Considering the high end handcuffs like Alexander Madison or Tony Pollard, considering those guys should be rostered this time of year, Ty Johnson is close to the top of the list of players who could walk into a nice role. And since we know factually that Carrie on Johnson won't be back until week sixteen, then you can feel a little bit better about the upside that Ty Johnson would bring. Now, of course, the Lions could bring someone in and feed that player more than we'd like, or they might trade for someone, but that's similar to any other handcuff situation when you're not talking about the higher end handcuffs. That's why to me it was okay to spend pretty heavy FOB on Ty Johnson this week, but it certainly is league dependent. This last question is from at Ye boy Nikki g Why should we always sell players performing above averages? I e. Aaron Jones, Assuming running back total points is a bell curve with most in the middle but a few on the extremes. Is it dumb to hope you have the extreme that wins a league. No, we should understand that outliers exist and those outlier performances can help us win fantasy leagues, of course, but outlier performances are also unpredictable. Let's talk about Aaron Jones since you use them as the example. Jones was a cell candidate this week because his workload is worse with Jamal Williams active, and Jones is also overperformed in the touchdown column. Could Aaron Jones hypothetically maintain this touchdown scoring pace? Sure? Like I said, outliers exist, But why should we bank on Aaron Jones, specifically Aaron Jones to be that outlier. Outliers aren't common. That's why they're outliers. So if you have Aaron Jones and you say to yourself, no, he'll keep up this pace of scoring touchdowns in a time share with Jamal Williams, then you're literally banking on an outlier. And yes, the extremes can help you win leagues, but so can more predictable production from players who are seeing the majority of their backfield's workload. You don't need an outlier to win in fantasy football, and since we're playing probability, the best way to win in the long run is to not bank on an outlier and find people who are valuing that player as an outlier. So, yes, outliers exist, I just don't think banking on an outlier is good process, and I also know for a fact that you don't absolutely need that outlier in order to win a fantasy football championship. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone, enjoy your weekend and good luck in Week eight.