796: Week 1 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host jaj zacher Retha Jae zacher Reethon. What's up everyone, It's jj zachar Esen in this episode seven hundred and ninety six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Each week on this sleeper show, I'll be looking at players who are rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might be able to throw into your lineup. Now, I know Yahoo percent rostered numbers aren't everything. I know that some of these guys might not be available in your league, but it's just a cutoff for me to talk about the non high end players each week. Plus every week I'm gonna force myself to give you some plays in the under ten percent bucket, so players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues, So those will be guys more readily available in your specific league. Because I'm talking about low end players, I'm gonna be wrong on this show a lot, but each week at the top of the episode, I quickly react my hit and misses in order to keep everyone on the same page. Also, keep in mind that the players that I talk about on the show are not must starts. They're simply players that you might want to consider starting in a pinch. With that being said, if you do want to see where I have these players ranked, you can check out the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. To access it, just head to lateround dot com and click Patreon. Through Patreon, you can get access to my weekly rankings and tiers. Okay, with that all out of the way, let's get to the sleepers this week. The first tier of players that I'm going to talk about on the show each week consists of guys who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leaks. And the first and only quarterback that I'm going to talk about in this tier is my favorite streamer of the week, Sam Howe. As I talked about this offseason, how has dual threadability and his lone start. Last year he ran the ball five times for thirty five yards in a score at UNC. During his final season he ran for over eight hundred yards. He's an athlete. He can generate some fantasy. He points with his legs, which is always something that we look for. In Week one, he gets Arizona, arguably the worst team in football, the Commanders are strong favorites, giving them an implied team total that ranks fourteenth here in Week one, and the Cardinals have a weak secondary, specifically a cornerback. Even if Terry McLaurin can't go, Johan Dotson should not have any issues. How should be able to have a solid outing. Now, I'm not starting him over someone like Dak Prescott or Gino Smith, but I do think that you could consider him over a player like Derek Carr this week. They're in the same tier for me. Now at running back tank Bigsby is still under that fifty percent mark on Yahoo and he makes plenty of census week The Jags are four and a half point road favors against the Colts. It's an Indianapolis team that's without Jonathan Taylor, and it's a team starting an inexperienced rookie quarterback. There's a shot that we see a nice positive game script for Jacksonville and that could lead to better usage for Bigsby. He's probably gonna get work regardless of gamescript, and they're still a chance that he actually ends up being Jacksonville's goal line guy this year. But Bigsby was a good prospect of my model he has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, and if this game does favor Jacksonville, I'd anticipate the Jags not going super hard and giving the ball to Travis Etn. They want to save Etn right now. Bigsby's firmly in RB four for me, so in deeper formats he might be flexworthy in that same game as Dion Jackson. I talked about the Colts backfield a bit on the fifteen Transaction Show, and here in week one, not beyond, but just here in week one. I think Deon Jackson's the play. Evan Hall's a rookie, he hasn't gotten real game reps. Zach Moss is injured. If Moss ends up suiting up and going, I'll be far less bullish on Jackson because a full blown committee would be likely. But if the committee is just a split backfield between Jackson and Hall, I'd expect Jackson to see all the important work, that's goal line and receiving work, even though I think Hall is more than capable of doing that. Jackson also beat up this team last year. He got ten passes and he scored on the ground. He's a high end RB four maybe a low end RB three if Moss officially doesn't go this week. The last running back in this tier that you might want to consider this week, although I hope that you don't have to consider him, is Gus Edwards. The name of the game with running back sleepers is game script. Baltimore is the biggest favorite on the slate this week. Fandal's Sportsbook has him as ten point home favorites against Houston.

00:04:28
Speaker 2: JK. Dobbins is probably gonna.

00:04:29
Speaker 1: Get a ton of run. But if this game gets out of hand, if it's really a double digit score differential, then I'd anticipate the Ravens using other running backs to drain clock and to wind things down. That would include Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Now, I actually think that there's a chance that Justice Hill is more valuable than Gus Edwards this season. There's a new offense, there's a new offensive coordinator in town. But Edwards is probably the safer bet to carry a bigger workload in a game environment like this. He's the bulkier of the two backs, and he's had experience doing it, so Edwards is a decent enough dart for super deep leagues at wide receiver I'm looking at a guy that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Marvin Mims. Jerry Judy could very easily be sidelined this week. It's not official right now, but it's trending that way. It's good that he's not on IR, but he was expected to miss several weeks with his hamstring injury. That makes Marvin Mims sort of the de facto number two wide receiver to start the year for the Broncos behind Courtland Sutton, which means he could find the field a lot here in Week one. Mims can line up everywhere and he's a serious, serious vertical threat, so one big play and he could pay off. During his three collegiate seasons, according to PFF, he had averaged up the targets of seventeen, seventeen point six, and fifteen point four, which is absolutely wild. The matchup's a good one against a Raider secondary that ranked third worst according to PFF's secondary rankings entering the year. Mims truly could have a breakout day. I think an easy go to this week would be Van Jefferson. There's no Cooper Cup, so Van figures to be the top wide receiver for La. Now, I don't feel great about it because I don't think Van Jefferson is that great. He's never had a season with a target chair per game rate higher than sixteen percent, and his yards per rout run rate has always been below one and a half. Those are literally the definition of average. But he's had five games above a twenty percent target chair in his career, and in those contests he's averager respectable thirteen PPERO points per game. With inexperience alongside him in and Pukin Nakua and Tutu atwell, he could walk into a lot of volume and what could be a negative game script against Seattle.

00:06:37
Speaker 2: The last wide receiver in this tier that I want to call out.

00:06:40
Speaker 1: Is Rashid Shahed. Sometimes you just need some big play players on your team. Shahed, as a rookie, ended last year with an absurd fourteen point four yards per target rate and one of the best yards per route runs that you're gonna find for a first year wide out that was obviously on fewer routes than a player like Garrett Wilson or a player like Chris Olave. But it's still something to get relatively excited about. The Saints get the Titans in Week one. They allowed the third highest completion rate on fifteen plus air yard throws last year. It's a secondary that has some pieces, and they add Sean Murphy bunting this offseason, but there's still a lot up in the air there. If you're looking for a sleeper, you might as well target one who could make one big.

00:07:21
Speaker 2: Play and payoff. Rashid Shaheed can do that.

00:07:26
Speaker 1: And then that tight end. I have four of them for you. The first one is Rashid Shaheed's teammate Juwan Johnson. Johnson's exiting a season where he had about a fifteen percent target chare per game while ranking thirteenth in red zone targets. To tight end, you get the quarterback upgrade and Derek Carr and he played starter stamps in the preseason. You're really hoping a tight end streamer can just find the end zone, and he's got just as good of a shot to do that as any other tight end streamer, any other tight end in that tight end two range. The next guy, Greg Dolcich, the guy that I've talked about plenty this offseason. There's a real chance of this whole Adam Trautman thing comes to fruition and Dulsch ends up being a dud. But I'm gonna bet on talent. Dulsich's rookie campaign last year saw him with the third best target share per game rate among all first year tight ends since twenty eleven. The only tight ends with higher marks were Kyle Pitts and Evan Ingram. He looks good in my year two model, and Jerry Judy, like I said earlier, could be sidelined. That could naturally lead to more volume, and it's a plus matchup against a beatable Vegas defense. There's also Jake Ferguson. I said what needed to be said about Ferguson on the fifteen Transaction Show, but I'll quickly say it again. Among the almost ninety rookie tight ends since twenty eleven who ran one hundred and more routes, Ferguson's yards per route run in targets per out run rates ranked in the top ten. There's no more Dalton Schultz. Jake Ferguson looks like he's gonna be the tight end one, the starter in this Dallas offense. So I think there's season long upside with Ferguson, and it could start this week and then finally another player from fifteen transactions, Luke Musgrave. Now it'll help if Romeo Dobbs and or Christian Watson are out this week because they're banged up right now. They might not go this weekend, but even if they do, Musgrave is set to run the most routes a tight end for the Packers right away as a rookie.

00:09:19
Speaker 2: And like I said.

00:09:20
Speaker 1: Earlier this week, it's not that rookie tight ends can't be good in fantasy football, it's that they're usually not getting a high number of routes because they're learning the game. They're getting acclimated to the NFL. They're learning to block and catch the ball. But with Muskgrave, and this could extend to Sam Laporta and Dalton Kinkaid too, But with Muskgrave, they're gonna need him to be a receiving threat. He's extremely athletic, which is what we should always be looking for with a breakout tight end, and the matchup should be okay against Chicago, so I wouldn't be surprised if he has a nice debut, although he is certainly a risky play. This is always my favorite part of the episode each week because I get to talk about some super so super random players like Baker Mayfield. Now, do I think that you're gonna start Baker Mayfield in a single quarterback league this week?

00:10:07
Speaker 2: No, of course not. That would be silly. Do I think there's some intrigue there? Yeah? Actually I do.

00:10:12
Speaker 1: The Bucks get Minnesota, a secondary that really struggled at times last year. They allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. This game could force the Bucks into a pass heavy script, even if they don't necessarily want that. Minnesota's at home, they're six point favorites, the Bucks are six point Underdocks. The game has a decent forty five and a half point over under according to Fandal Sportsbook too, and Mayfield at least has the weapons right. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both have decent matchups, and not only are they gonna naturally get funneled targets because they're good, they're the most talented players on that team. But Minnesota was seventh and adjusted target share allowed to wide receivers last year too. I don't think Mayfield is anything but a pretty desperate superflex play, but he makes sense under this ten percent Mark. Now moving on to running back, let's go back to the idea of gamescript and let's target kyn Williams. I think that he has a shot for some cheap production this week. There's talk that he could end up being the pass catching back in the Rams backfield this year, and if that's the case, a negative game script is going to favor him a lot more than cam Akers. And as I said earlier, the Rams are decent underdogs against Seattle this week. Seattle was also pretty bad against the position last year too, ranking as the sixth best matchup for running backs and adjusted points allowed, and they were top half in the league and adjusted target share allowed to the position. I don't think Williams is that special of a player. He definitely lacks the explosiveness, but he was a good receiver in college, so we know the skill sets. At least there at wide receiver in this tier, I'm looking at my guy, Jaden Reid, especially if Romeo Dobbs is out or Christian Watson, who's also on the injury report.

00:11:49
Speaker 2: Reid's gonna play the slot for Green Bay this year.

00:11:52
Speaker 1: And like I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, there's a non zero chance he just ends up being the best receiver on this team. It's not likely, especially not likely to hit this season, but there's a possibility given the fact that his prospect score was in line with Christian Watson's. I'd imagine him getting involved more in two wide sets if Romeo Dobbs or Christian Watson is out, which would be a huge boost to his overall value this week. But even if those guys are in, Reid could surprise similar to Luke Musgrave and then I have two tight ends in this year to talk about. One of them is Baker Mayfield's tight end Kate Otten. I think Oughten's just been way undervalued all offseason, given the fact that as a rookie he ran four hundred and sixty five routes. Those one of the highest marks that we've seen since twenty eleven. Now that's partially because Tampa Bay threw the ball a ton, his targets per route run, his yards per route run pretty brutal last year. I'm not gonna lie, which is why talent still matters at tight end even when you do get that opportunity. But Auten played almost half of his snaps from the slot last season and the Bucks are down at wide receiver outside of Godwin and Evans. I like Tray Palmer is a potential breakout, but Otten at least has some opportunity if he improves as a pass catcher and as a player.

00:13:06
Speaker 2: Here in year two.

00:13:07
Speaker 1: We often see that with tight ends, he could end up being a high end tight end two or even a low end tight end one this year. And then with Travis Kelsey's injury at the time of this recording, I don't know if he's going to be in or not this week, but if he's out, I do like Noah Gray. Gray ran the second most routes at tight end last year for Kansas City. He'd likely be the main tight end of Kelsey's out, and it's in a potential shootout environment against the Lions, and the Lions were one of the worst teams at defending the position last year, So you can go Gray's way if you're hurting a tight end now. As for the streaming defenses, teams like Washington, Denver, and New Orleans, they're too high rostered right now. So I'll go back to Seattle at home in a plus matchup against a Cooper cupless Rams team. But Seattle at home, Matthew Stafford in a negative games trip without his top weapon. Sign me up. There's also a Green Bay against Chicago. Justin Fields takes sack. We know that about him and that led to Chicago being the fifth most advantageous matchup for opposing defenses last year when adjusting for strength of opponent. The Bears offense will almost definitely be better this year, but there should be sacks at least for Green Bay and the last defense. Don't sleep on the Falcons. This is a deeper play, but they're facing a rookie quarterback, they're at home, their favorites, and the over under in that game is under forty points. The Falcons are actually a pretty safe option and if they can make the rookie feel uncomfortable, if they make Bryce Young feel uncomfortable in the pocket, turnovers could come. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and no friend to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

00:14:49
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:14:50
Speaker 1: We get the mailback episode and late round perspectives dropping tomorrow.

00:14:54
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you then