550: Week 3 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharias and the editor in chief at FANDL and at number fire dot com. And this is episode five and fifty of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's show had its good and bad moments. On the bad side, Mark has vowed as scantling, Anthony Schwartz, and Adam Troutman. They were all goose eggs. They did nothing. Those were massive, massive misses. But I'm pretty happy about calling out Hunter renfron as matchup against Pittsburgh. He had a nineteen percent target share. James White once again was good, Sterling Shepherd was good. Teddy Bridgewater and Tim Patrick they were both solid and the high rostered players to sit. They were all pretty good calls. Overall. Still a worse week than I'd like for this sleeper show, but there were definitely some positives. Some of these guys that I talk about to find the end zone a little bit more. That's been the biggest problem to start the year. Now, before we get into this week's sleepers, One of the biggest games of Week three is the Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, and fandel is making it even bigger by giving new customers thirty to one odds on either team to win. Fandel is sports betting made simple, and they're always hooking you up with great offers. Plus when you win, you'll get paid in as little as twenty four hours. Download the Fandels Sportsbook app today and bet on the Eagles Cowboys game. See for yourself why fandel is America's number one sportsbook. Must be twenty one years or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, India, and New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New Year's was only ten dollars first deposit required, must wager and designated offered market max bonus one hundred and fifty dollars. See full terms of sportsbook dot FANDL dot Com. Restrictions apply given problem called one hunter Gambler or visit FANDLE dot com slash RG and Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one hundred nine with it in Indiana, Tennessee right by one eight nine nine seven eight nine, visit one hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia or called one hundred next step or texts next step to five three three four to two in Arizona. As a new disclaimer, I did it all in one take. Let's get to these sleepers, as we do each week. We'll kick things off this week with five players who are rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, who you can consider starting. What I'm beginning to realize is that a bigger and bigger gap is being created in the percent roster numbers at running back. There just aren't many running backs in general who are rostered in like the twenty to fifty percent range. So at times on this show, I'm gonna have to be slightly more lenient in order to talk about the position. I don't think anyone wants me to just talk about wide receivers and quarterbacks. So let's kick things off this week with Corderol Patterson, who's rostered in just over half of Yahoo leagues. I talked about him in the fifteen Transactions episode and how he dug into Mike Davis's workload even more in week two than he did in week one. Davis is still the priority there, but Patterson saw thirty nine percent of Atlanta as running back rushes with a thirteen percent target shair in week two. Those aren't bad numbers for a flex option in a twelve team league. Now he gets the Giants. The Falcons and Giants have actually run at pretty fast paces to start the year. But even if you want to chalk it up to a small sample size, the game has a forty eight and a half point over under, which is decent for this slate. This may seem like I'm just chasing points from last week, but really, Patterson has a role in this offense. If you're hurting, I can understand starting him in week three. Another running back in this tier who you could consider starting is Kenneth Gainwell. I know I talked about him last week and he only got seven point two PPR points, but looking beyond that final tally, his numbers were actually not bad. He ended up seeing thirteen percent of the team's targets and a thirty two percent running back rush are and what ended up being a negative game script for Philadelphia. The matchup this week against Dallas could feature another negative game script. At the very least, there could be a good bit of scoring given the fifty one and a half point over under in this game. Dallas is a cake year matchup for the Eagles and the forty nine ers were and the team is a top ten one in terms of adjusted Fantasy points allowed to the running back position to start the year. More importantly, there's sixth and adjusted target shair allowed to running backs that just looks at target shair allowed to positions, and an adjust for competition. Those are all small samples. I get it if you want to dumb this recommendation down. It's really that Gainwell is the third down back on a team that could be in a high scoring game environment as an underdog. That's why he's not a bad waiver wire type play. Let's talk about my favorite traditional streamer this week, Daniel Jones. I talked up Jones on the fifteen Transactions episode because of what he's doing with his legs, and while I don't expect it to keep up to this degree, you have to at least like him against the Falcons. They've given up two top five performances to quarterbacks this year. Yes, I understand both of those quarterbacks were good, but the Atlanta secondary has done nothing to make me change my perception of them entering the year. They're not good. Jones has the rushing upside already, and now he might be able to get it done with his arm. So I like Danny Dimes as a top streamer in Week three. Now, I was gonna talk about Derek Carr here as another streamer, but I think people would probably get more out of this show if I just talked about Justin Fields. He's just on the edge of this tier in terms of percent rostered. Fields is right there with Daniel Jones as an option this week. I like Jones's matchup more, but I can't deny the upside that Justin Fields brings. There's a reason I was talking him up and Trey Lance up this offseason. Even just this past week, Fields ran the ball ten times in about two and a half quarters. He's going to bring that element to this offense, and he's likely gonna throw a deep at a higher rate than Andy Dalton has been because Dalton's thrown at fifteen or more are yards the lowest rate in the league to start the year. Now, the question is what type of quarterback should you play over? Justin Fields, they're about ten or eleven really good options this week, and they're the ten or eleven typical plug and play star. Right after those players is when you get the Daniel Jones and Fields belongs right there. And after some thought, I think Field's is the better play than Daniel Jones. Now there's some risk in that, but the reward seems to be there. If you'd rather just play it safe based off of what you've seen this year, you could go with Daniel Jones. That's fine. I wouldn't fault you because the Bears offensive line could struggle this weekend. But I would probably play Fields over players like Teddy Bridgewater who's a popular streamer, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins. Again, your risk tolerance might be different, but Field should have a floor given what he can do as a rusher. It's a pretty good week in general for quarterbacks, so I can understand if you have a better option, but i'd put Fields in fringe QB one territory. Now, the last player in this tier that I want to get to is Jared Cook. He didn't have a great Week two performance, but he did get a touchdown called back. He's now one of fourteen tight ends across the league with a fifteen percent target share or better to start the u and that's on a team that's been top ten in the league so far this year neutral script pass rate against the Chiefs in the game that could shoot out. He's a great tight end option. I think it's more than reasonable to want to play Jared cookover guys like Noah Fant or Dallas Goddard this week. The next tier players rostered in ten to twenty four percent of Yahoo leagues is all wide receivers. This week, the first one is Sammy Watkins. Watkins is one of just nine wide receivers with a twenty five percent target chair in each of his first two games. He has a twenty eight percent target chair in the Ravens offense. Now, he hasn't done a whole lot with that volume. He finishes the wide receiver thirty nine and the wide receiver fifty six over these two weeks. That's partially because the Ravens are the run heaviest team in the league right now, but also because Watkins just hasn't found the end zone. Maybe that changes this week. In Week two, Detroit was just daring the Packers to run on them. They were asking for it. They wanted the Packers to utilize Aaron Jones. They can't do that against Baltimore. The Lions are also thin at cornerback right now, making Watkins and even more attractive play. I think there's some fear that this game just favors the Ravens heavily, but the Lions offense has shown signs of life in weeks one and two that at least could keep things moderately competitive for the Ravens passing attack. A player I keep bringing up on these shows as Emmanuel Sanders. I like him this week against Washington, a team that's underperformed defensively to start the year. Sanders has an eighteen percent target share in that Bill's offense. He's tied for third in the NFL and fifteen plus air yard targets, and he leads the Bills in that category now. As I said earlier this week, Josh Allen has struggled on deep balls to start the year, but we can't just assume that continues. It wouldn't surprise me if they were able to connect on a big play in this contest. As a result, let's hope that regression hits Jalen Rager has seen twenty percent of Philadelphia's targets to start the year. He was strong in Week one with a seventeen point performance, but in Week two the whole Philly offense just struggled against San Francisco. Again, they should have a better time against Dallas, and if that script gets out of hand in any way, more dropbacks could result in more overall passing volume for the Eagles, because that could be an issue this year. Currently, they have a pass rate under fifty percent in total, and their pass to rush ratio neutral game scripts is below average. Let's hope Dallas can move the ball offensively against the Eagles to force more passing volume in the Eagles offense. And if you've got DeVante Smith, you've got to absolutely love him in week three. I didn't talk about kJ Osbourne on the fifteen Transactions episode this week because it's hard for me to go super hard for a player who's not going to surpass the top two options on his own team. But we can't ignore what's going on there. Osbourne has seen a nineteen percent target chair in each of the first two games played this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he's run seventy one routes this year, whereas Adam Thielen's at eighty five and Justin Jefferson's at eighty four. Now he gets Seattle, not a scary secondary, and it's in a game at home that's projected to be close, and it has a fifty five and a half point over under. You'll want exposure to that game, and Osbourne is a cheap way to do it. And then the last wide out in this tier, AJ Green. We can hate on Green all we want, but he's comfortably run the second most routes on that Cardinals team this year, and he's seen eighteen percent of Kyler Murray's targeted throws. And now he gets Jacksonville. The Cardinals have a team total that's approaching thirty this week, and the Jags have allowed the ninth most adjusted Fantasy points to wide receivers. I think you could do worse than Aj Green if you're looking at players in this tier. This is the fun part of the show. Players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues that most people aren't even thinking about starting. We haven't had a ton of hits yet in this tier this season, but with more data should come better results. Let's start with one last quarterback streamer Jimmy Garoppolo. The forty nine Ers face the Packers. It's a defense that's really struggled to start the season. The forty nine Ers have an implied team total of twenty six and a half according to Fandals Sportsbook, and I really really think that this is a get right game for George Kittle. The Packers have given up a huge target share to tight ends to start the season. And it's not just because they faced TJ. Hockinson in Week one, Adam Troutman and Juwan Johnson. They did work against the Packers as well so far this year. And again this is a sample size alert because we only have two games, but so far this year, twenty six point four percent of targets against Green Bay have gone to tight ends. That's not the most in the league, but when you adjust for opponent, it becomes the most in the league. That's because New Orleans didn't target their tight ends that much in Week two when they did a lot in Week one against Green Bay. Regardless if the forty nine Ers put up twenty six or twenty seven points. Jimmy g is going to have something to do with it. It's similar to weeks one and two where he scored fifteen to twenty Fantasy points. And the nice part is Green Bay's offense should be able to move the ball. That's going to force Jimmy Garoppolo to throw it deep more frequently than he has or hopefully, because right now he's second from the bottom in the NFL and deep all rate. The second super deep sleeper in week three that I've got Van Jefferson. He's another guy that I talked about in the fifteen Transactions episode this week, but he's basically been getting just as much run as Robert Woods in this offense this year. I really like the Rams passing attack in this matchup against Tampa Bay. The Bucks are tough to run on, we know that, and they're also a very good team that forces opponents to throw the ball a lot against Tampa Bay on the season, they're the only team that's faced one hundred and more pass attempts. They faced one hundred and six. And here's the other thing. Sean McVay has faced the Buccaneers twice over the last two years, and over these two years, the Buccaneers have been good against the run. In those games, mcvay's offenses have passed the ball sixty eight and fifty one times. They've run the ball twenty and eleven times. That's a total of one hundred and nineteen pass attempts and thirty one rush attempts. A pass rate that high is not simply due to gamescript You guys might remember, but one of those games was a serious shootout. But even in that contest, the Rams were really pass heavy to start the game. So I love the Rams passing attack in a game with a high over under. Of course, Cooper Cup and Robert Woods are better bets than Van Jefferson, but Jefferson has the peripherals to work. This week, if you want a deep tight end option, you could look at Jacksonville. James O'Shaughnessy is out for the Jags, and in Week two the tight end with the most routes run for the Jags was Luke Farrell. Now I'm not totally sure that we see a repeat there. Jacob Hollister has been on the practice squad in Jacksonville, and he's got more experience than Farrell does. Hollister actually has nine career games with six or more targets. But here's why we should be interested. The Jags have been really pass heavy because they're bad. They have a two point sixty to three pass to rush attenh ratio this year, and that ratio is not going to get significantly smaller this week as a seven and a half point home dog against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. If one of those guys is running routes, he has a shot to see volume. And Trevor Lawrence is throwing a deep at the highest rate in the league. That gives Ferroll or Hollister, and I'm gonna bet on Hollister if he's active, that gives them the potential to be relevant on just two or three catches. Again, we have to learn more about whether or not Jacob Hollister will be active or not, but if he is, I think that he could be viable. Now I usually only go with three of these types of plays, three players in this tier, but I want to talk about the Detroit pass catching group. Tyrell Williams is out again this week. In Week two, Quintez Cephus ran the most routes at wide receiver for Detroit. He also had a twenty percent target share, leading the wide receiver group, so he's probably the play among the wideouts on that team. But I want to give rookie Amen Ross Saint Brown a shout. He ran the second most routes for Detroit at wide receiver against the Packers, and over eighty seven percent of his snaps this year have come from the slot. Naturally, that's by far the most on the team. He's their slot guy. So far this year, only Chicago has seen a higher percentage of their targets go to that area of the field than Baltimore, and that's a continuation from last season. In twenty twenty, Baltimore was seventh in that category. This is sort of like the Hunter Renfro play from last week, but it's like diet Hunter Renfro. There's a lot less stability and it's even deeper. Don't start Amen Ross Saint Brown over players with locked in roles. I just wouldn't be surprised if he has a decent game. Now, it's seventy five players who are rostered in about seventy seventy five percent of Yahoo leagues who you could consider benching this week, let's start with running backs, and I'm gonna go to Miles Gaskin. I'm just naturally worried about the Dolphins offense and their ability to move the ball. With Jakobe pur said, that's going to hurt the playmakers on that team, and Gaskin's peripherals aren't anything to write home about. He's seen forty two percent of Miami's running back rushes and he has a fourteen point seven percent target shair. Now that target chair should keep him competitive in RB two territory this week in PPR formats, but some of you might have better options this week, especially if you need upside. That's the best way to describe Gaskin at such a lifeless position in fantasy football. He's fine. Ronald Jones is still rostered in seventy five percent of leagues, and while I can understand the allure a little bit this week, given the game has such a high over under, it's hard to like him in shallow leagues. He's a drop candidate. So far this year, Jones has seen a third of the Bucks running back rushes and under a four percent target chair. Even if you want to just remove that week one game where he fumbled, it's still not great. He saw just thirty five percent of the team's running back rushes in Week two, So no, don't start Rojo this week. Damian Harris is another one who I think would have a down week. Like I totally understand if you can't bench a player like Harris or Gaskin because running back is not very deep, but Harris is still a relatively one dimensional fantasy back. He's seen four targets in two games, giving him a six percent target chair, and while that's better than what I expect entering the year, it's still not a whole lot. With James White taking on that role still. And the Patriots get the Saints, the game has just a forty one and a half point over under, and New Orleans has been good at stopping the run over the last three years plus. They've ranked no worse than eighth best and rushing yards allowed since twenty eighteen, and after facing Aaron Jones and Christian McCaffrey, they still rank in the top ten and rushing yards allowed to running backs. Again, I understand if you have to start Harris, he's just probably gonna be touchdown dependent, and I don't want to bank on that in what could be a low scoring game. Brandon Ayuk should not be started. Yet he saw a couple of targets in Week two. That's great, but you can't throw a dude who has a four percent target share into your fantasy football lineup, even if the matchup is great. If Brandon Ayuk goes off, then awesome you have Brandon Ayuk. He's back, but there's too much volatility to that situation to start him. And then there's Corey Davis. Davis had just two catches for eight yards in a tough match up against New England in Week two, and after that crazy, crazy preseason he had all that volume he was seeing in the preseason. He now has a seventeen point four percent target share in the Jets offense. That isn't even the top mark on the team. Braxton Barrios has a twenty six percent target chair. I don't think that's going to continue, but it's hard to trust this passing attack right now, especially in a tough matchup against the Broncos and then my two streaming defenses this week, Carolina and Vegas. I talked about Vegas on Tuesday's fifteen Transaction Show. And it's now official they won't be facing Tua. With two relatively decent performances so far this year, I think they're gonna be fine. And then Carolina is in a really good spot against Houston. They're not at home, but they're seven and a half point road favorites going up against a rookie quarterback, and it's a rookie quarterback who's drafted in Round three. In plus matchups this year, because it's all that Carolina's seen, they've ranked as the sixth and fifth best defense in week scoring. They have ten sacks on the season to go along with three picks. They're a very very good play in Week three. I think I would prefer them to Vegas at this point, although Vegas is still a very very strong option. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get to subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know, if it's follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. We got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode. I'll talk to you tomorrow.