814: 15 Transactions for Week 6

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j Jae Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and fourteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in before getting the transactions. This week, I'm gonna do something a little bit different. If this show has helped you at all in the past, if you've gotten something from this show, do me a favor and leave a rating and review. Those can go a long way to helping the show out. I'd really really appreciate it. But this is a fifteen transactions day. Let's get to it. By CD Lamb. Look, it's been a tough start to the season for CD Lamb. Before Monday Night Football, he ranks as a low end wide receiver two in PPR points per game. He's finishing the weekly top twenty at wide receiver just once this year. If you drafted Lamb early, you're not very happy. But Dallas has played in some really strange games. Week one was that blowout against the Giants. Lamb wasn't needed all that much. The Cowboys ran just eight plays in the neutral game script. Now Week two wasn't as dramatic, but it was pretty similar. The Cowboys had a double digit lead for a lot of that game, and even still, Lamb had a thirty five percent target shair and over twenty five PPR points. Then in Week three, Dallas saw negative game script in a weird one against Arizona. Lamb was a disappointment in that game. He only scored ten point two PPR points. After that, it was that game against New England, the Cowboys destroyed them that once again forced a run heavy script, and then we saw what happened in Week five. San Francisco destroyed Dallas. The Cowboys couldn't get anything going offensively, we saw backups in the fourth quarter. None of the Cowboys games have really been normal. I think we should expect that to change moving forward, at least to some degree. And that's good news for CD Lamb, as is the fact that, according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed methodology, over the next four weeks, no team has better wide receiver matchups than the Dallas Cowboys, and the Cowboys of the second best schedule from now through the end of the year. Up until this point, the schedule has been below average according to adjusted fantasy points allowed, So it's been tough. I totally understand. I have CD LAMB myself. It has not been a good experience, but I do think that things are going to get better. Add Roshan Johnson and Deontay Foreman. This is not the first time that I've talked about Roshan Johnson on this show. I've talked about him quite a bit, but this transaction needs to be repeated because Khalil Herbert is a high ankle sprain. He can miss basically the rest of October and a lot of times with those high ankle sprains with running backs, when those backs come back, they're not as productive. So it's really bad news for Khalil Herbert, but it could be good news for Roshan Johnson. The thing is Johnson himself was concussed on Thursday. Fortunately he has more time to get healthy, but even still, he's at risk of missing week six if he's not able to go in week six, because I think if he is active, he's gonna get a lot of work. If he's unable to go in week six, we're gonna see a lot of Deontay Foreman. Foreman hasn't been dressing for the Bears because he doesn't play special teams. That's been Travis Homer. But in this case, if Khalil Herbert and Roshan Johnson are out, Deontay Foreman's going to see a lot of the early down work for Chicago. But if Roshan Johnson goes, I think that he's easily the top play in that backfield. Sell George Kittle. This is what we get with George Kittle. We get these monster games like we saw in Week five he got three or four targets for sixty seven yards and three touchdowns, but we also see a lot of down games from him on the season. He has a seventeen percent target chair. That's not bad, that's just not elite, And oftentimes across fantasy football, a lot of people look at George Kittle as being a very very good fantasy tight end. But get this, Brock Purty took over the forty nine ers in Week thirteen last year. Including the playoffs, Perty's thrown twenty or more passes in thirteen games, so we have thirteen games of Brock Party. In those thirteen games, George Kittle has more than thirty receiving yards, and four of them that includes Week five. This San Francisco offense is clearly great. It's way better than I thought it would be. But the up and down nature of Kittle's production is super, super frustrating. It's great from a best ball perspective because you're gonna have that backup tight end fill in when George Kittle doesn't have great production, but from a season long perspective, it's going to be frustrating. He's gonna have these weeks. This is not the last time that George Kittle will finish as a top three tight end in weekly scoring. It's just that he's also going to have some valleys. He's not a bad fantasy asset to have. Having that ceiling is obviously valuable, but if you're not up for it, if you can't handle it and manage that, then it's time to sell him. Add A Mari de Marcado. James Connor hurt his knee against the Bengals in Week five. That led to rookie of Mari de Marcado carrying the ball ten times for forty five yards in a touchdown. He was the only non James Connor running back to touch the ball against Cincinnati, and that's because Keyanta Ingram missed that game with a neck injury. Now de Marcado wasn't invited to the NFL Combine, he also wasn't drafted. He's not in my prospect model's database. As a result, these types of players who weren't at the combine, who weren't drafted, they usually don't have long term fantasy value, but as a random redraft fillin sure, if James Connor's out and if Kianta Ingram's out, de Marcado can be effective, he can be an RB two. My only question with this though, is that if James Connor's out and Keyanta Ingram comes back, what does his backfield look like? And my answer to that question is is probably a running back by committee. I think Keyanta Ingram would probably be the one B and De Marcado being the one A, but it could be ugly and a not great offense. Hold Isaiah Pachecko. So, Isaiah Pachecko has now scored a touchdown in each of his last three games. His PPR output has been fifteen point eight points, twenty four point eight points, and thirteen point four points, and during this timeframe he's seen a seven percent target chair per game rate, so you might be thinking, isn't he a clear sell. He's been touchdown dependent, that's gonna regress, and he's not seeing a lot of looks through the air out of the backfield. He's also not playing a ton of snaps. I mean, he's playing more than we probably projected at the start of the season, but he's not seeing an elite snap share. He's not seeing an RB one snap share. I still don't think this is the time to sell, though. Over the next four weeks, no team has a better running back schedule by justin fantasy points allowed than Kansas City. They get the Broncos, Chargers, the Broncos again, and then the Dolphins. Denver is the best matchup for running backs, Miami's the tenth best matchup. LA is the thirteenth best matchup. Kansas City also has the third best schedule from here on out now without a touchdown, but Checko's like a low end RB two type. The offense is clearly good though, and the matchups are there, so scoring opportunities should continue. By Amari Cooper, so when fantasy managers are making trades, they don't always have Bye week's top of mind. And what I mean by that is, when a player already has had his buy. There's inherent value in that. You don't have to go scrambling for a replacement when that guy has his buy because it's done. But when you're negotiating a trade and you're talking to another manager, that's not always top of mind. So use that to your advantage. The Browns just finished up their bye week, so Mariy Cooper is ready to go. He has a twenty three percent target share in this offense. That's solid, and over his next four games he gets the forty nine Ers, the Colts, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals. Each of those matchups are favorable when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed. The last three matchups the Colts, Seahawks, and Cardinals, those are all top ten matchups for wide receivers. So the schedule looks great. If you need W's right away, Amari Cooper makes a lot of sense. Now, I will say I would probably hold on trading for Cooper if we don't get better news about Deshaun Watson's shoulder, so wait for that. But there are plenty of reasons to want Cooper on your roster right now. Add Josh Downs so this has yet another repeat transaction. Talked about Downs on the show before too, but he should be rostered in far more than nine percent of Yahoo leagues. He now has a twenty point six percent target chair on the season, and in two of his last three he's hit a twenty five percent target chair. Now, Anthony Richardson getting hurt, that sucks. That's a huge bummer. But there's still a chance that it ends up being okay for the Colts pass catchers, whether you're talking about Josh Downs or Michael Pittman. A less mobile quarterback under center and Gardner Minshew would mean fewer quarterback rushes and a higher chance for pass attempts. Now, that's not a lock. I'm just saying there's a chance, because according to Fantasy Life, the Colts passing attack had their lowest dropbacks over expected rate of the season on Sunday. So don't just assume that there's going to be more passing volume. I think there's a chance that there is, And I'm saying that don't downgrade these pass catchers because of the move at quarterback, but don't also go too far in the other direction. The focus here, though, is the workload Downs was a good prospect. My model really liked him. He should be able to maintain this twenty ish percent target share from here on out. That's roster worthy, add Cheuba Hubbard. Miles Sanders has had a rough couple of weeks now. He has been dealing with a groin injury. But who knows if that's playing a huge role or not. We don't know for sure. All we know is that statistically and when you watch him, he has not looked good. Sanders has now failed to reach a ten percent target share in each of his last two games. His low from weeks one to three was a fifteen point eight percent target share. Meanwhile, he's gone from an eighty one percent running back rush share during his first three games to a forty six percent one over his last two, and that's resulted in Chewba Hubbard getting more work. Now, is this the Miles Sanders injury? Maybe it really might be, but Sanders just generally has not been that good within this exact same offense, Hubbard has been significantly better and expected points added per rush according to ext gen stats, Hubbard as a forty nine percent success rate, Sanders is at twenty eight percent. Hubbard's rushing yards over expected per kerry point four Sanders minus point seven. Are we entirely sure that right now Miles Sanders is the best running back in his backfield, like for sure, because I think that groin issue aside, there's a chance that Chuba Hubbard continues to grow a bigger role in this offense. Sells Saquon Barkley. This might be a little bit galaxy brained, but hear me out. Barkley seemed close to returning in week five, so we should probably expect him in week six. So let's just work under that assumption. Let's assume that Barkley's back here in week six. Unfortunately, Barkley's been out with his high ankle sprain, and when he returns, it's not a given that he's going to return to full strength. According to Fantasy Points doctor Edwin Porras, the last time Saquon suffered this injury, he saw a ten percent hit in production. On top of that, looking at higher end running backs who had high ankle sprains. This is all according to Edwin Porras, but when looking at higher end running backs who had high ankle sprains, we typically see a twenty percent to twenty five percent rate of decline. They'll see fewer touches in total in their offense, but they'll see even worse production compared to their pre injury numbers. Now, this isn't to say that it's a lock that Barkley's going to suffer the same fate, but it's definitely more of a negative than a positive. Now, in addition to that, the Giants have been horrible offensively. They haven't scored an offensive touchdown in three of their five games this year, and their schedule really might not help them. Thus far, the Giants have actually faced the fourth easiest quarterback schedule by adjusted Fantasy points allowed. They faced the fifth easiest running back one and the sixth easiest wide receiver one. Moving forward, their running back schedule is the twenty fourth easiest, and in the Fantasy playoffs they get the Saints, the Eagles, and the Rams. Those are three teams that have been very strong against running backs this year. So it may seem odd this transaction might have come from left field, but if Saquon Barkley's returning, you can use that to your advantage. You can say, hey, look, league mate, Saquon Barkley is going to be back this week, you can plug him into your lineup, but this could still be a cell high moment for him. Add Greg Dolciic. So we're getting closer to Dulcich's return from injured reserve. Hopefully. Doulcic was put on IR back after Week one, so he's technically eligible to return this week. We'll see what happens. There hasn't really been that much reporting on it, but he's a great flyer. When you consider that Adam Troutman, who's not nearly as good as Greg dolcig. Adam Troutman has seen top ten to top fifteen route participation since the first week of the season. That's amongst all tight ends in football. And as you guys might rem remember my year two tight end model, really really like Greg Dolcic. This offense needs a spark. That spark might be Greg Dolcic. Add Jeff Wilson, Savon Akhmed or Chris Brooks. There's a lot going on right now that might be absolutely nothing, but it might be something. Davon a Chan suffered a knee injury on Sunday against the Giants, and at this moment, I record the show on Monday, so you guys can have it for your commute on Tuesday. At this moment, there's no more information aside from he's being evaluated. Really makes my job easy, doesn't it. If Achan were to miss time, then Raheem Moster would get a big boost. But don't forget that Jeff Wilson was activated from IR. He might not be ready to go this weekend, but he at least makes sense as a speculative ad right now, and it's obviously not a bad one given the offense that we're talking about. But then there's also Savon Akhmed. He might get a boost. But then there's Chris Brooks, who played ahead of Akmed this past week, because Brooks has special team's ability. So basically, all three of these running backs should be on your radar right now, and hopefully it means nothing. Hopefully on Tuesday we find out that Devan a Chan is absolutely fine. But the Dolphins get Carolina this week and that's a very very good matchup for whoever this RB two is. This is just one of those situations where you've got to monitor it. By Tyler Lockett, So you know all that stuff that I talked about with Amari Cooper and buying players who already had their buy. Tyler Lockett fits that too. He's gotten off to a pretty slow start this year. He scored fewer than ten PPERO points in three of his four games. He's ranked higher than wide receiver forty two and weekly scoring just once. But there is some optimism. Lockett has a twenty two point three percent target share this year that's almost identical to last year's twenty two point seven percent per game number. His average up the target is twelve point four last year is eleven point four. His catch this year, though, is a little bit worse. It's sixty three percent versus seventy two percent last year, so he's not catching as many targets so far. More importantly, he's not doing as much with his catches. He's a nine point two yards per reception average that's far lower than his career average of thirteen point two, and it's easily the lowest that he's had since entering the NFL. Even when you adjust for age, this should not be the expectation. A nine point two yards per reception rate for Tyler Lockett is not the expectation, so there should be some nice regression coming for Lockett. And then on top of that, Seattle pass catchers have a pretty decent schedule. Only five other teams face an easier wide receiver schedule from here on out when looking at Justin Fantasy points allowed. So I'm expecting this production for Tyler Lockett to get better ad kJ Osborne. So another situation up in the air is Justin Jefferson. I have no idea at the time of this recording how long he's gonna be out or what the injury even is, at least specifically, if Justin Jefferson misses some time, though, then kJ Osbourne would likely see an increase in target share. He's already playing starter snaps once again this past week. He ran more routes than Jordan Addison, but without Jefferson's twenty five percent thirty percent target chair, there's more volume upside in this offense. kJ Osborne would see an uptick and target share, and Minnesota get Chicago this week. They've had one of the weakest defenses in all of football to start the year, and they're a plus matchup for wideouts and a Justin Fantasy points allowed. Add Logan Thomas, I'm not gonna lie. I was so so angry that I forgot to talk about Logan Thomas on The Sleeper Show this week. And you might be sitting there saying, man, that's quite a hindsight take. But here's the problem. On my other show, Living the Stream, we talked about Logan Thomas being a streamer. It was just a complete oversight, and I pologize I should have talked about Logan Thomas on that show. But let's talk about him on this show. Thomas has hit a twenty two percent target share in two of four games this year, and he's coming off a game where for the Commanders only Terry McLaurin ran more routes. Now, I don't think Logan Thomas's production is going to be that good week in and week out because he did face the Bears, but it's good to know what's possible, and not only that, he gets another good matchup this week. The Commanders get the Falcons. The Falcons are the second best matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed, So that makes Logan Thomas a great streaming choice once again. This time I'll bring it up on The Sleeper Show. Add the Atlanta Falcons defense. Streaming defenses this week is actually kind of tough. But according to Fandels Sportsbook, the Falcons are two and a half point home favorites against the Commanders. Washington has allowed a top eight fantasy performance to an opposing defense in three of five games this year, and they've given up the third highest pressure rate in the entire league. The problem is that the Atlanta defense ranks dead last and pressure rate themselves, so they should be able to generate a little bit more pressure this week. But it's not like this is some ideal matchup or ideal situation. If you don't go the Falcons route, you could also go with the Raiders. Now that's also a very tough defense to play, but they're facing New England and that Patriots offense has been horrible to start the year. So at the moment, I'm looking at Atlanta and Vegas. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found inter friend to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten trend Show