Late-Round Perspectives: Justin Boone

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Justin Boone is a lead fantasy analyst for the Score. He was Fantasy Pro's most accurate expert for twenty nineteen, and he said seven straight top seven finishes within their rankings contest. He's a friend from North of the Border, and he's one of the most rational voices in the fantasy football space. These are his late round perspectives. You know, we go through all off season and we like study for this test. I always say, right like, we got this big test coming up, and we're just going crazy studying for it. And then we take the test, which is basically like week one, and it's really the biggest test of our year because we spent so much time researching this stuff and then things get just get kind of thrown out the window with a lot of the research that we do, and sometimes we fail.

00:00:50
Speaker 2: Sometimes we do all right.

00:00:51
Speaker 1: Sometimes we you know, get some B pluses instead of some some D pluses.

00:00:55
Speaker 2: With our answers.

00:00:56
Speaker 1: So, you know, one of the things I wanted to ask you, though we are only two weeks into the season, do you think that it's too early to panic? How do you handle sort of the balance of analyzing some of these early season numbers versus all of that research that we did, you know, from February until September.

00:01:15
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's so tough and nobody wants to hear this answer, but it's got to be case by case, right. You can't just come at it with like a blanket statement and everything is going to get sorted out one way. That would be nice if that was the situation. That is definitely not the situation. And you know, there's a lot of players that got off to hot starts, but there's reasons for it, and maybe what we've seen in the first couple of weeks isn't true. There's a lot of players that have gone the other way. I mean, I think your Steelers are a perfect example where everyone's burying them right now, but look at the matchups that they've had in the first two weeks. They went against the forty nine Ers defense, and then they went against the Browns defense. Forty nine ers certainly one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. Maybe the Cowboys are putting up a pretty good argument to be that right now, and then the we're gonna look back and say this Browns defense is incredibly legit. So I think it's really really tough to try to make those decisions early in the season. And you know, you look at a team like the Steelers, where it's so easy on Twitter for everyone to just put them down, when in reality, there's so many other factors that go into it. And it's not just matchups. It's injuries that happen. I mean, some of the running backs that people are really hard on right now, well, the offensive line is hurt in front of them. So what do you expect these guys to do? And really, anybody that you put in there is probably going to struggle. So I don't have a great answer for me. Normally, I want like three or four weeks of data and then I start to feel like a little more confident in my takes, and I think what you got to do is you have to act early in the season. You can't just sit back. We know that because if you sit back and you wait for those three or four weeks of data, you're gonna be behind. You're not gonna have any of these players that are breaking out in the first couple of weeks. So you got to make decisions. You got to move on it. I tend to be aggressive early in the year. This year might made a couple of mistakes JJ in terms of some of the recommended bids that I gave people in the first week after some of those players broke out. We're probably going to talk about some of those guys here. But I always like the idea of approaching the season in windows, and I think it's the Sigma Bloom thing. I think that's where I heard it first, the idea of like going at it in these you know, three or four week windows and then reassessing. So in that case, you come into the season. You hope that you got a lot right in your draft rankings before the year, and normally we get quite a bit of stuff right there. You try to build off of that in the first few weeks and you take these shots on some of the breakout players and situations where you think they can make a difference for you throughout the year, and then you reassess it after three or four weeks and you set yourself up again. The worst thing that you could possibly do is get married to that team that you draft in And I know there are a lot of people that do that, and they look at that team and they're so excited about it after the draft, and then stuff starts happening in the first few weeks and they don't want to change their opinions on it. But that's what you have to do. That's what the smart move is. You have to adapt to this stuff in the first few weeks. And like I said, there is no like one answer to it. It's case by case, and I think we're going to talk about some of these.

00:04:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you know, I also think it's one of those things where you don't want to get too high and you also don't want to get too low. You should recognize what's going on, but you also should do your best to poke holes in every argument that you see, right, So good example, I talk about this in my Mailbag episode. The New England Patriots offense. They've been so pass heavy to start the season. You know, Hunter Henry's looked like a legit tight end option, but when you give that some context, his target share really hasn't been that great. I mean it's like eighteenth among tight ends pre Thursday Night Football. They've just been throwing the ball a lot because look at their opponents. They played Philadelphia week one, Miami week two. I think you and I would both be shocked if New England throws the ball at the same rate week three against the Jets without Aaron Rodgers, you know, and I think having that sort of context, it's another great example is the Steelers, like you mentioned, you know, they play two good fronts. We know the Steelers offensive line has been an issue the last couple of years and even entering this year still an issue. Play against two of the best fronts in football.

00:05:02
Speaker 2: This isn't you know. It's a shocking result in.

00:05:04
Speaker 1: That they've been so bad and so so awful, but at the same time, at least give them a chance, one chance, two chances against a moderate to blow average defense which they're facing this weekend, and then sort of assess moving forward that way. So I, you know, I'm not shocked that you and I see it similarly, where we're just trying to take as rational of approach as possible with these first couple of weeks.

00:05:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, it makes it tough, but it is also, like I said, that's part of the fun of this, right And I had Dwaye McFarland on my show yesterday and we talked a little bit about something like this, and one of the conclusions that Dwayne came to was if everything went the way we expected it to go, well, that.

00:05:40
Speaker 2: Wouldn't be any fun at all.

00:05:41
Speaker 3: Right, that's our heart of why we love this is that at the beginning of the year, you want to know that some of this stuff is right from what you thought during the summer. You want to find out what's wrong and try to correct that as quick as possible, and then that's the fun. You got to manage your team throughout the year.

00:05:55
Speaker 1: So one of the things that you know you're known for is is not only I think your rational sort of approach and take to the game, but you've been an unbelievable ranker in the past. What do you think has sort of driven that success for you? And why have you found success in doing that?

00:06:11
Speaker 3: I honestly don't know. You know, it's not It's not the kind of thing where I could just tell people there's this like one special stat that like solves everything, and that's what you got to do. I think for me, like I could go way back with it, like I'm incredibly competitive JJ, and like this goes back to like when I was a kid, Like I remember my dad taught me how to play cards when I was probably like I don't know, seven or eight years old, and whatever game he taught me. As soon as I knew the rules of the game, I expect that I should win every single time because now I know the rules right, and I'm not factoring it as a kid. I'm not looking at, you know, the luck of the cards or the skill of the other player in the game or anything like that. I'm just going I believe in myself and I think that if I know the rules of this game, I should be the best to add it. And that followed me kind of through my life. And I take a lot of pride in my work, so I'm always trying to find ways to you know, outwork everybody else. And I take a lot of that from football too, Like I didn't play football until I was in high school, and when I played, that's when I kind of learned like how far you can push yourself in order to try to accomplish something. And I've done that in my career. I've done that in like every aspect of my life, and it's made me better for it. So that's the personal kind of side of things, right, Like my competitiveness and all that, that's not what everybody wants to hear the real answer JJ. And this also is like really really boring. It's just time. It's time spent. Like I build my schedule during the football season around football, and I accept the fact that I'm not going to have a lot of plans with friends. I am not going to go out drinking a lot, like I know that those are things that aren't going to happen for me over those four or five months, and I'm okay with that. I don't have kids. My wife is very understanding, my family, my friends, they know the situation. They know this is what I'm passionate about right now, and they kind of allow me to do that. So, you know, Sunday to Thursday, it's morning tonight, like there's kind of no nothing else really happening for me life wise other than just football. And then Friday it's most of the day and you know, after maybe seven or eight pm, I can make some plans and go Friday night and then on Saturday. I always joke that it's like one half is going to be work and one half is going to be fun. So whether that's you know, morning work and night you know fun, vice versa. But it's time spent and going over everything, and every single week I'm left, you know, at that one o'clock mark on Sunday when the games kick off, I'm left with a feeling of I wish I had another twenty four hours to go over all of this, right, Like, there's so much data that we're trying to put into our brains, and I mean some of that stuff you can go like, you know, the historical data, you look at the injuries you're trying to keep up with not just to the fantasy players, but to all the players that are out there and how that can impact the matchups. I mean, there's just so much, right the weather and all this different stuff that we're trying to build that puzzle. And then when I sit down to work on the projections and then eventually the rankings, all of that comes out at that moment. So that for me is what it is. It's just time spent. And you know, I could say that almost everything that I've applied myself to in life, I've been pretty good at. I know how that sounds, but it's true. There's two things, JJ that I am terrible at, and I don't see anything changing there.

00:09:18
Speaker 2: And it's drawing.

00:09:19
Speaker 3: I am no artist. I promise you. It's all stick figures for me. If you're playing one of those games where you have to like draw picture, it looks like I'm a child in that game because I cannot draw, and I can't cook, and I've tried, and I've made many a mess in the kitchen. I cannot cook, and I'm okay with that. At this point, I showed out to all the delivery drivers in my neighborhood. I mean, they really keep me alive this time of year. But aside from those two things, whenever I've really dedicated myself to something, I've come out the other side being pretty good at it. And you know, the Fantasy rankings thing. Because of that Fantasy pros contest, I think, and because of my desire to finish first and my expectation that eventually I could, I really really threw myself into that one. So, like I said, there's no magical stat there's no crystal ball, there's no you know, Genie in a bottle who granted me wishes or anything like that. I wish it was a much better story. I which I wish I had, you know, something to tell people that they could follow, But it's really been hard work and competitiveness and just trying to refine that process a year over year. And you know, one thing I always point to a mistake that I feel like I was making in the past was using historical data from too far back, like going past you know, three or four years. I eventually found that things changed so much that that was kind of hurting my projections and the stuff I was doing. So when I made that change several years ago, that made a big difference for me. And that's more for like the the preseason rankings for the summer stuff, not so much for the ind season, but that was one that definitely factored in. But yeah, I wish that I wish I had something more to give people that they could follow, But it's really just having a very understanding group of family and friends who are gonna allow you to spend that much time on it.

00:11:03
Speaker 2: No, I feel that for sure.

00:11:04
Speaker 1: Do you ever get like when the one o'clock games hit, and let's say the first half hour of a game is going and it started, and you start to see a trend with a certain player, right, and you didn't necessarily foresee that happening with that player and then you start to see in hindsight that there were signs that that could have happened right, and you just got it wrong. I think that the listener, whoever's listening to this right now, or just the average fantasy consumer needs to realize that there are going to be things.

00:11:31
Speaker 2: And this is where I think the like the.

00:11:33
Speaker 1: Idea out there that fantasy experts and fantasy analysts don't know any more than you know, the average Joe playing fantasy football. I think that that idea sort of stems from the fact that there are things that you or I aren't gonna necessarily have top of mind all the time, you know, before a game starts on set. Last week, perfect example, last week, for whatever reason, Josh Reynolds, which is not not near top of mind as he should have been from me, right and it wasn't until you know, I had a conversation with some patrons and some folks on discord where I was like, Yeah, that was just a blind spot for me in that given week. And I think that these blind spots are naturally going to happen because, like you said, there's just so much stuff that we're pouring over, and injuries are happen, especially, I mean mid season and late season when the injuries are just out of control. You know, all these injuries are happening. You're trying to stay up on all these injuries, and it's tough. I mean, do you find yourself in those positions too, where it's this given week, it just happened that way. And I'm sorry, I'm human. I'm doing my best here. Hopefully I'm winning far more than losing for anyone who's taken my advice, But this is just the reality of the situation with with how things kind of unfold.

00:12:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's just so much information to try to keep on top of so many players. That's why I wonder like if we were doing NBA or something like that, would it be easier, Like there's less players to focus on.

00:12:53
Speaker 2: Like, I don't know if that's true or not.

00:12:54
Speaker 3: I've never really dove too far into basketball fantasy, but yeah, I totally feel that. And it's also funny sometimes like you'll see, depending what's going on with your specific fantasy teams and where you might be spending more time. If you're trying to trade for a player, you might do more research on that guy in a given week. Or if you're going to try to pick up someone off the waiverwear, you might dive deeper into the team that he's on, so you end up finding a nugget about another player on his team that ends up helping you in the rankings, or you know, with what you're doing that week. So yeah, there's just so many things. I wish I could clone myself and have a bunch of versions of me all working on it, and that we could come together at the end. But even still, I think there'd be things that you miss. I think it's just it's such a giant like mosaic that you're trying to bring together, and you know, whether you want to call it a puzzle whatever, you're trying to bring all it together, and it's just it's almost impossible to do properly and to do, you know, with one hundred percent. And you go back to if you want to talk about like the accuracy stuff. When I was in the Fantasy Pros contest back in the day, they used to give you a percentage of like how accurate you were. It was on like a point system like they do now, And even in my best seasons, it was like high sixties, low seventies. I think that was like you were just crushing it at that point, like you were just you were so far ahead to everyone else, and still you're way off on a bunch of stuff.

00:14:10
Speaker 2: So it happens.

00:14:12
Speaker 1: Well, That's what I tell people too all the time, is that you know, like Pooka Nakua for instance, Right, I liked Nikua entering the season. I had him in my draft guid as a late round dart. I don't say that from the perspective that I'm bragging or backpadding. I'm simply saying that I liked him, right. I'm not gonna go around today and say that I expected him to have ten more targets than justin Jefferson after week two, you know. And so I think that the lesson here is that we're gonna miss stuff, or there's gonna be things that we have blind spots for, like I said, But the lesson here is that we just have to be a little bit better than our competition. That's what I always try to drive home to people is that you're gonna be wrong throughout a season. There's gonna be players that you drop that you look back and you're like, I should not have dropped that player. You're going to have those moments, but at the end of the day, you're gonna have you have to also focus on the moments that you got right and that went your way, and those moments if you're following the right advice, if you're you know, if you have a strong process yourself, those moments at the end are going to outweigh you.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: Know, the bad moments.

00:15:13
Speaker 1: Just try your best to not fixate on those negative moments. Speaking of negative moments, sure, a lot of people are now sitting here wondering what in the world is going on with this Minnesota backfield. A lot of people drafted Alexander Madison fairly high, drafted Cam Makers fairly high. And would you look at that they're now both in the same back I mean, think about a month ago. If we were to say that Alexander Madison and Cam Makers would be in the same backfield, it would be a very shocking thing to hear. So I want to know your take on that backfield, you know, moving forward, Are you very very worried about Madison? Are you very very worried about camp Makers? Do you think that it just doesn't matter and they're both kind of just irrelevant fantasy assets.

00:15:53
Speaker 2: Where are you at?

00:15:55
Speaker 3: So I think this goes back to what we were saying before about matchups early in the season, and it kind of had Madison in the back of my mind too when I was talking about a lot of that stuff, because we knew going into the year that, you know, he's not a gifted running back. He's not like an elite talent at the position. That's not why we were drafting him. If he were, you would have been taken him in the first or second round, not in like the fifth or sixth or you know, you can get him even later than that earlier in the year. But he needed the volume, he needed the right runout and he runs into essentially a buzz saw going against the Buccaneers run defense, which has been good for so many years with Vidavea there, and then the Eagles front, which is so strong too, and it makes it very, very difficult for a guy like him to perform. On top of the fact that they got hit with a ton of offensive line injuries, so they're trying to go up against those monster fronts and they're trying to do it with a diminished offensive line, and that's going to make it very difficult for a guy like Madison to perform. And you know, you could look at some of the game scripts and stuff there too, but he was the you know, three down that was great. He's getting that kind of usage. He saved the first Fantasy Day with the touchdowns, so it wasn't the worst thing in week one, and so moving forward, I was kind of still excited. I kind of looked at him like a by low and maybe he still is because now the price is going to be incredibly low for him, so you might still be able to take a shot out him. But they go out and they get Cam Akers. They didn't really spend much to get him. I mean you look at what they traded and it was almost like the bare bones. It was what like twenty or two thousandvant Yeah, yeah, twenty six, you know, pick swap, late round pick swap or something like that. So that really doesn't matter. But Akers comes in, and in my mind, he's kind of a talent like Madison. So if Madison has these first two bad games, and that's in the mind of the coaching staff, and now if he doesn't come out in the third game or the fourth game here and start to produce, then yeah, they're gonna make a switch or they're gonna make it into more of a committee. So I still think Madison has a shot to be the guy there. I wouldn't go crazy about the quotes from the offensive coordinator today. I saw that saying, you know, they still have faith that Madison and ty Chandler can produce.

00:18:07
Speaker 2: What's he going to say?

00:18:08
Speaker 3: Right? I always laugh at those kind of quotes. So they're just the guys on a team. They're obviously going to say nice things. No one's going to come out and say something terrible about you know, the coaching staff, for the players and the team, unless I guess you're justin Field's but that's another story. But yeah, So I still think that Madison can end up coming through as that you know, low end RB two or maybe now you value more as a high end RB three that has that RB two upside. But he's really going to have to show it over the next couple of weeks. And then I think that cam Akers is just a bench dash that you're hoping that, if you're the owner of him, you're really hoping that Madison, you know, fumbles it here and continues to actually literally fumble it away and that Acres is going to get his shot. And if he does, and if the matchups are right, I think Acres could produce in that offense. But I don't think this is a scenario where they traded for Acres and he's going to come in and immediately be the number one. I think he's going to have to earn that job, and it's probably going to require Madison to really stumble or continue to stumble here and not perform. But the matchups do get a little bit better, and hopefully that offensive line will get a little healthier, and we'll see Madison actually produce a bit for fantasy, like at least I expected him to before the season, and give you those RB two numbers.

00:19:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a pretty reasonable take.

00:19:20
Speaker 1: You know, I look at both of these backs as fairly average, Like, I don't think that they necessarily stand out as like super talents. And you know, at the end of the day, and I say this a lot on the show, but coaching decisions are what drive volume in fantasy football.

00:19:34
Speaker 2: We have to hope that talent is winning out.

00:19:37
Speaker 1: You know, we look at the Jets backfield and we say, Okay, Breese Hall needs to see more touches because he's clearly the most talented and best running back in that backfield, and we can then feel confident about moving forward and saying, you know, as analysts, yeah, by Breze Hall, because you know it's going to only get better for him because he is the best talent in that backfield or you know, other backfields like when Ezekiel Elliott goes to New England, it wasn't it was and you know all was what was not over for Ramandre Stevenson when that happened, because the talent gap between Stevenson and Elliott is fairly evident. You know, it's still there, the talent gap to me between and I think you were alluding to this. You know, it's like they're they're both kind of average backs. You get cam Akers stepping in and Madison clearly kind of you know, on the down at least with the coaching staff in the way that they might be viewing him. And so I agree, I think that the next week or two is gonna say a lot about the way that Alexander Madison season goes. I think there's a chance that we end up seeing a committee in this backfield where they rotate drives. I think there's a chance that cam Akers ends up being the better running back, that he might have more upside than Madison. I mean, there's just a lot of outs and avenues. But I do agree that Madison's gonna at least probably get a shot just because you know, he has that opportunity in week three at least. You know, with with Akers joining that team midweek, you can't, you know, from a projection standpoint, you can't sit there and say he's gonna get double digit touches you know here in week three. That's just that's a lot to put on the dude play when he just joins the team.

00:21:01
Speaker 3: So yeah, if they were desperate and maybe you get a guy in there, running backs probably the one position where you could do that. But that's yeah, are desperate. I think they'll be okay running out there with Madison and exactly and potentially Chandler this week and then we'll see going forward.

00:21:14
Speaker 1: I still think ty Chandler is the most explosive, Like if you're just looking at it from that perspective, not necessarily the best every down, who can you know, just carry this massive workload, but he has that explosion he has that ability. You know, he's very very fast. He has that ability to be a good change of pace. I really wanted him to get some opportunity, but you know, with cam Aker's there, it looks like that's, at least.

00:21:35
Speaker 2: In the short term, not going to happen.

00:21:38
Speaker 1: Speaking of explosive running backs, Jamior Gibbs, man, you know, he's looked decent when he's touched the ball so far this year.

00:21:44
Speaker 2: He just hasn't touched the ball a whole lot.

00:21:46
Speaker 1: Ye.

00:21:46
Speaker 2: Now you got this David Montgomery.

00:21:48
Speaker 1: Injury, so you know, we're we're hoping that we see a little bit more Jamior Gibbs this week.

00:21:52
Speaker 2: But there's this this voice in the back of our.

00:21:56
Speaker 1: Head remembering and talking to us about how the Lions use DeAndre Swift. You know, this coaching staff used DeAndre Swift specifically last year. You know, are the Lions gonna finally let Jamiir Gibbs do some work this week against Atlanta or is this gonna be a situation where we're just gonna be frustrated because the Lions, you know, yes, they spent good draft capital on him, but they might end up just using him like DeAndre Swift I.

00:22:22
Speaker 3: Do think that it's probably gonna be a little closer to the second thing. But this certainly opens the door for him to like absolutely blow up here. Right, Like the fact that Montgomery's out of the way will probably result in it at least like a few more touches going Gibbs this way. But I think that the path was laid out here for Gibbs to really explode for fantasy, regardless of whether Montgomery was healthy or not. Right, I think that Montgomery could still be out there and this week or next week or as we go here, Gibbs was eventually going to become the star and be the playmaker in that back. I think that's what the Lions wanted. Now, are they going to make him a workhorse?

00:22:59
Speaker 2: Absolutely not.

00:23:00
Speaker 3: He's just not that guy. I don't think there'd be any reason for them to do that or to rush him. You know, they're going on this path that they have laid out and so probably will be Craig Reynolds, Like I think this week, you look at Gibbs and to me, high end RB two, maybe even fringe low end RB one, like he can be that kind of player in this offense. He doesn't need twenty five touches in order to produce like that because he's so explosive because he's getting that pass catching work. But you look at Craig Reynolds to me and you say, Craig Rewld's probably a flex I would guess at this point and being sort of that like poor man's David Montgomery. They also have Zonova Knight or Bam Knight as some people like to call him.

00:23:38
Speaker 2: He could be the guy.

00:23:39
Speaker 3: I mean, they promoted him, people remember him from what he did with the Jets last year. He's a guy that could potentially step in and get some work. But to me, Craig Reynolds, he flashed last season a little bit when he got opportunity. I think he could step in and do like a pretty good imitation of David Montgomery out there, and I think that's what we're gonna see. We're gonna see Gibbs continue to kind of play the way he's playing with a few more touches every week because it's not Montgomery and because it's somebody like Reynolds, and then Reynolds a sneaky guy that I know. There's probably a lot of Nick Chubb managers that went out and ended up getting Craig Reynolds that are gonna have to slot him in there, and that's very, very sad, But it's a guy that could potentially get you through the next couple of weeks and get you all the way, you know, to where you need to go until you can find a true replacement, because I don't think Reynolds is ever going to become that.

00:24:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, it's not like doom for Jamiir Gibbs either. I mean, every backfield is basically a committee right now, right. I mean, if you look across the league, this is just the way that backfields operate. So the fact that Craig Reynolds is going to see some work, it doesn't mean that Jamiir Gibbs is not. I think I still have him ranked as like RB nine or ten this week, Jamier Gibbs, just because you know the situation, the upside is certainly there, and there's some injuries and stuff going on with some of these other guys, and you know, I don't think it's that hard to see him being in RB one this week. But you know, to your point, in a lot of other circumstances, if we knew that Jamiir Gibbs, Like, if we knew right now that Jamiir Gibbs was going to be a true belcal this week, Like I'm talking fifteen plus carries, you know, seeing a target share in that fifteen to twenty percent range. If we knew that was happening, he'd be a top three or four back more than likely from a rankings perspective and from a projection perspective.

00:25:10
Speaker 2: So yeah, I.

00:25:11
Speaker 3: Love what you said too about like the amount of backfields that we don't have workhorses in.

00:25:16
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, And it's hilarious.

00:25:17
Speaker 3: Like going into the year, you figured, Okay, well, Dereck Henry's probably still gonna be that guy, but then all of a sudden, Tajie Spears is getting like almost the equal amount of snaps. And before the season, Christian McCaffrey everything, we're hearing another forty nine ers was no.

00:25:30
Speaker 2: No, this year, they're worried about it.

00:25:31
Speaker 3: They're gonna, you know, split touches more, they're gonna get other guys involved. And then he comes out and he's basically one hundred percent player in that offense right now, Like it's so funny trying to project these backfields, and yeah, it gets to a point where you're not as worried if you don't have one of these guys that can give you twenty five touches a week, because not many teams.

00:25:50
Speaker 2: Do, right.

00:25:51
Speaker 1: It makes those elite guys in fantasy, and this is this has been the case for a really long time, but makes those like truly truly elite guys like the Christian McCaffrey right now now and then. I mean, but it's crazy. You look at the landscape and the high end guys Tony Pollard, b John Robinson, they're not even necessarily the bell Cows of old like even them, right, even those players, or even Austin Eckler, right to some degree, these players, like we're sort of shifting into this world where efficiency is starting to matter a lot more than it did, you know, five to ten years ago with the running back position, where before the Nase Harris types, I mean, you know what we thought or what many thought from Naji Harris entering the season from a volume perspective, that could have gotten by and gotten you by, and it would have been fine. But because these running backs are separating themselves so much from an efficiency standpoint, I think that's also separating themselves then, you know, as the elite players, because so many of these backfields are indeed split, and then you get the unicorns like CMC. And if he continues to play, you know, like he's playing right now, then from a usage standpoint, then.

00:26:54
Speaker 2: It's just game over. Yeah.

00:26:55
Speaker 1: Speaking of these rookies, so we just talked about Jamiir Gibbs. If you drafted a okay, let's say Devon ah Hin right. I drafted a good bit of Devin A Chain. I liked him entering the year. Are you doing your best after week two to hold on to that player? Are you letting go of that player for one of the hot waiver ads?

00:27:12
Speaker 3: So I forget who said this. I had an analyst on my show several years ago, and they brought up the idea that they don't like to draft rookies in the late rounds because they just picked those guys up off the waiver wear in week three or week four when everybody else drops them because they were impatient and they didn't produce yet, right, And I always thought that was such a smart idea. Maybe not to avoid rookies in the late rounds entirely, but the idea of being really mindful about who's getting dropped in the waiver wire around this time of year, and trying to jump on those rookies specifically even if they haven't done anything yet, because you could be the one that has them during that breakout in the second half of the season, which is often when you're drafting rookies later when it's not the Vijon Robinson's and the Jamiir Gibbs and the guys who were taken really high who you know are going to step in and get a lot of touches right away, when it is those later round guys, I'm drafting them thinking that I'm going to be holding them for a while before I'm actually going to see any results. And it depends on the league. It depends on how deep the benches are, whether you can hold them, And the other thing is it really depends on what your roster looks like after the first couple weeks. Like if you took a bunch of running backs and they've panned out and you're feeling really good about your running back corps, then a chain has a much tougher path to get into your lineup, and maybe you can let go of him and pick up a receiver. Let's say, if you're a little weaker at receiver and grab a Josh Reynolds somebody like that who could step in and help you right away. So it really once again, I'm always going to say this, I'm always going to try to be level headed about it, and it's case by case, and it's roster by roster and trying to figure out where your needs are. But overall, if I'm drafting those guys, I'm expecting to hold on to them for at least three or four weeks and see a little bit of a sample size to see if they can work their way up the depth chart or start to get some touches, and then how they look on those touches too. Right Like someone like Spears who hasn't gotten a ton of work. He's gotten a lot more snaps than we figured he would get, but not a ton in terms of volume right now, but he's looked outstanding on it. And if Derrick Henry were ever out of the picture there, knock on wood, we don't want to see that happen. But whether it was an injury or a trade or whatever could move Henry out of the way, I think Taji Spears is gonna be a really good running back in the NFL, and it could happen this year if that opportunity arrives for him. But you want to see these guys out there, and that's why a chain. Despite everything that we heard in the preseason about him, we just haven't seen much. And yes, he wasn't playing a week one, right, so we only have one game to go off of, and he was third on the depth chart in that game, so again, not much there, But he'll have an opportunity, I would think this week to do a little bit of something now that I think Salvin Akman is going to be out and we're still waiting a couple weeks on Jeff Wilson here, so perhaps he'll get his shot this week. But it's been very strange in terms of everything we heard from the teammates and the coaching staff about how unbelieve he was, and the beat writers saying that he was impressing every single day out there, and maybe the injury in late August maybe that impacted him and that's held him back a little bit, but it really seemed like that positive drum beat was there and then for him to come out and you know, be so far down the depth chart, it's a little bit odd. And if you need help else where a guy like gay Chain, I think you could potentially let go, but I'd try to hold on him if you could.

00:30:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's where I'm at too.

00:30:24
Speaker 1: I gotta I got a question about Quentin Johnston on the mail bag this week, and I actually researched and looked at historically over the last decade, looking out wide receivers and how they performed, you know, as rookies, from through the first two weeks of the season and how that correlated with how they then performed from week three, you know, to the end of the year. And obviously, you know there's pockets, as you mentioned, you know, you kind of look at these the seasons and groupings and such, but there is a decent correlation between how well guys perform at the beginning of the year to how well they performed through the rest of the year. And you know, even someone like aman Ross Saint Brown, who when he was a rookie and he broke out at the end of the year and he was a league winner the first part of the season. He wasn't usable, but he was still scoring like four to five fantasy points a game, you know, through through the first few weeks of the season. That's where the worry then comes in with a player like QJ, where he's not even seeing the field, and even when he's on the field, he's not doing what Marvin Mims did last week, where Mims, you know, scored, has a decent fantasy performance on five routes run. You know, so like a guy like Mims, you feel a little bit more optimistic about that. Okay, they let him, you know, if they just unleash him a little bit more, then maybe he could he could produce and be and be a viable option for you.

00:31:34
Speaker 2: So he's a little bit easier to hold on to. But something like QJ.

00:31:37
Speaker 1: Look, like I said, there's gonna be decisions that you have to make in fantasy throughout a season, and you're going to make decisions that burn you in the end. And that's a decision that might end up burning you in the end if you drop Quentin Johnson right now. But sometimes you have to make those choices because you need to get a Josh Reynolds or someone off the waiver wire in order to play them that week. You know, those are just sort of the tough decisions you got to make.

00:32:00
Speaker 3: And I'm sure we've all been burned like that. I immediately comes to mind David Johnson during his rookie season. Yeah, held him all year. I think I dropped him a week or two before he finally blew up down the stretch and ended up becoming an amazing keeper in that league for a different league mate who ended up picking him up buff the waiver wear. So that was one that to this day still hurts a little bit. So thanks for bringing that up, Jaje.

00:32:24
Speaker 2: Look, it's gonna happen. It's gonna happen.

00:32:26
Speaker 1: It's inevitable one of the players I actually I've been bringing this up on the show. I actually did that in a league with pokin Akua before Week one this year, and it was a situation where I'm like, I got enough pokin Aakua around my leagues, I got enough exposure. He's not gonna blow up week one, and then of course everything goes the way that it does. So we got Nakua right now, who I actually have ranked I think as a top twenty four guy at this point. Moving forward, I think in my rest of season rankings Kyen Williams, I have ranked as a solid RB two rest of season. Both of those rankings compared to consensus were higher, So I'm higher than the consensus on those two players.

00:33:03
Speaker 2: Where are you at?

00:33:04
Speaker 1: Do you let me ask you this in particular, are you worried about Nakua when Cooper Cupp returns?

00:33:11
Speaker 2: If Cooper Cupp returns, I should.

00:33:12
Speaker 3: Say, yeah, I think that's the aspect of this that people aren't talking enough about. And these are certainly the two guys that I was referencing before where I had Pooka as the top pickup after week one. But I looked at it and I said, well, Cooper Cup's going to be back eventually, and yeah, you might get great production for the first month, but then if Cooper Cup comes back, you know, what does he end up being? And you know, maybe the Rams. It was a divisional game in week one, and maybe the Rams. You know, it's just a little bit of a mirage in that game, and they'll fall back to earth the next week. But then they come out and they do it all over again against an even tougher opponent in week two, right, so they definitely seem legit and all the credit in the world goes out to Matthew Stafford, who looks like he's you know, still in his prime right now. And Deshaun McVay and the play calling there has been fantastic and that helps all these guys, and we could even throw it like two to out Well has been outstanding too. He's getting overshadowed, but like he's putting up great stats the first two weeks. So I'm curious to see what happens in this next game. You know, they'll be on Monday Night, I believe, going against the Bengals, and we might have Joe Burrows, so you know, how much are they gonna have to throw in that game? That'll be a whole different story. And you know, I'm sure you'll get into that in other episodes. But rest of the season, I'm kind of right there with you, maybe even slightly higher. If I look at my rest of season rankings here, I have Kyroen as the RB fifteen and I have Puka as the wide receiver twenty two. So if you think back to, like, you know, where that would have been if if we knew this, if we knew now what we knew. You know, we know if we knew then what we knew what we know now, I think they would have been like fourth or fifth round picks. And the thing with Puka is he's going to give you this outstanding production in the first month. So we got another couple of weeks here, and we don't know for sure that Cooper Cup is going to be back in week five. There's been some reports that they think he's going to come back in week five. I hope that he comes back in week five. It's certainly no guarantee. It could be longer than that. And for however long he's out, Like Puka now is in my top twelve this week, I think he has to be in that range moving forward in any game that Cooper Cup's not playing, So he gives you that incredible value and then when Cup comes back, because of what we've seen. Now it's been two weeks and that's still a small sample size, but because of what we've seen in these two weeks, I do feel more confident that Puka's going to continue to produce, not in the same way necessarily once Cooper Cup's back, but that he's still going to be a fantasy starter. He's still going to have value as that you know, low end wide receiver two, high end wide receiver three, and everybody wants to compare him to Robert Woods, and it's a valid comparison. But we saw at one point, when you know, this offense was humming a few years ago, that Cooper Cup and Robert Woods were both performing as top twenty guys. So it's certainly possible that this continues. But I don't feel like I've seen enough discussion about the idea that when Cooper Cup comes back that you know, Pooka could fall off quite a bit, and you know, week you know eight, you might start wondering about those hundred percent bids or whatever it was that people were putting in on them after week one. And that's not me trying to backtrack. I'm taking the L like I think I was putting in, like I recommended, like a fifteen percent bid after week one, so just incredibly low versus what people were actually spending to get him, which was you know, fifty sixty seventy percent or more. So I'm taking the L on that for sure, because he's going to help all those teams that picked him up, you know, be potentially three and one or four and oh to start the year. But yeah's it's certainly going to be concerning when Cooper Cup returns. It's going to change things quite a bit in that offense. And that's the fun of this, right, you can be right and you can be wrong. You know, I could be wrong about that bid. But then midway through the season, maybe it looks like, you know, people shouldn't have spent that much, and things will continue to change along the way and we'll keep adapting.

00:36:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a roller coaster. The whole season is a roller coaster.

00:36:52
Speaker 1: You easily take l's one week and then their w's the next week. That happens all the time. I do think that the mark it seems to at least be embedding, not necessarily Cooper Cup's return, but a mirage, right, this idea that Pooka and Nakua isn't this good?

00:37:10
Speaker 2: Or that he can't maintain this.

00:37:12
Speaker 1: But I think that you're right that this production, the way that they're using him, the target share he's seeing, uh, and the way the offense is operating.

00:37:20
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if he's going to maintain.

00:37:22
Speaker 1: A forty percent target share, you know, over the next over the next two or three weeks if if Cooper Cup is out during that time, but a thirty percent share, sure, I think that's that's doable for him to maintain something like that, maybe a twenty five percent share, and so you know, you're getting that elite production, you know, over the next couple of weeks.

00:37:40
Speaker 2: And then I do still think that this could just.

00:37:42
Speaker 1: Be a Robert Woods esque role afterwards, where if Matthew Stafford continues playing at this level, then all of a sudden, Nakua is indeed still a wide receiver two for your team, and he's fine, you know. So so that's why I have him ranked right now as that wide receiver two, because I think that he has that ability to maintain that. And again, if you look at consensus and stuff, right now, he's more ranked as a wide receiver three.

00:38:04
Speaker 2: Probably because a little bit of the Cooper Cup stuff.

00:38:06
Speaker 1: But also I think there's still a lot out there who are just like this isn't real, like the you know, we because this is this is historic, Like we don't see this happen. Not only do we not see day three picks, you know, immediately produce a wide receiver in general like this, but but doing it like this, you know, doing it in a way where he's not just producing, he's just straight up dominating. I mean he is literally justin Jefferson in fantasy football. And that's something that I think it's very easy to say, oh, he's not going to maintain that.

00:38:35
Speaker 2: No he's not.

00:38:36
Speaker 1: But it's it's then easy to say, oh, then I'm gonn rank him or I'm gonna push him down my board, you know this far. But it's easy to kind of overstate that just because you know, you're you're thinking he's just not going to maintain this.

00:38:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how much of it is just a scheme and how much of it is Puka actually like showing that mind meld with Stafford and showing that kind of veteran savvy. And there was a lot of talk that Cooper Cup's been kind of talk him up and training him and trying to teach him as much as he can.

00:39:03
Speaker 2: But the fact that he's.

00:39:04
Speaker 3: Out there and reading defense is the way that he is and he's kind of getting into those spots for Stafford, Like, those are the things to me that I was very excited to see continuing in week two that it wasn't just a fluke because of that that he actually was showing like he's almost playing like a veteran and to do that as a fifth round rookie, it's almost incredible. On top of the fact that the numbers are just out of this world.

00:39:27
Speaker 1: Are you more confident in Puka Nakua's ability and talent to sort of maintain not to this degree, but I mean, like you know, fantasy relevancy, let's say, or are you more confident in Kyrone Williams?

00:39:39
Speaker 2: But is it more so like if if the answer is Williams, is.

00:39:43
Speaker 1: That more so dictated by the fact that he's playing running back and he's just seeing volume or is it really a talent thing for you?

00:39:50
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not a talent thing. It would just be pure volume. And I would have to tell Kyron there, right, like the guy is getting We're talking about CMC being almost one hundred percent player. Kiren's basic almost been a player, right, So if there's a running back in an offense that's that's doing this well, I think you would have to side with him. Despite the fact that Hooka has been just outstanding and you know, all pro almost through two weeks here in terms of his production.

00:40:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you with running backs. I mean, talent matters.

00:40:19
Speaker 1: You know, you obviously want to analyze the player for who they are because they can rise depth charts and stuff.

00:40:24
Speaker 2: I didn't foresee.

00:40:26
Speaker 1: You know, I was fading cam Akers to start the year, but I was doing it because you know, there's so many reports about Kien Williams being involved in the offense. But this is another situation where I wasn't then targeting Kien Williams because of that. I thought it was just going to be a more dig into his workload and not allow him to be you know, this, this this great fantasy asset. Kyrien to me wasn't that unbelievable. He was just a very solid prospect, and then he had that horrible speed score and he had all those those issues from a from a testing standpoint, and it was hard to really like back him as this and I think that he's taken a step forward at least you know, this year, from from year, from from last year to this year, and he definitely looks better and looks.

00:41:05
Speaker 2: The part more.

00:41:06
Speaker 1: I do in the back of my mind, this is late round perspective, So I throw out some more fire takes than I.

00:41:10
Speaker 2: Do it on podcast.

00:41:12
Speaker 1: Uh, I do, in the back of my mind still question his ability to do this the whole year, you know, just just to be But but I look at that depth chart and I'm like the other two backs on that team right now, and Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans wasn't a big fan of theirs either from from a from a prospecting standpoint, and so strictly from.

00:41:30
Speaker 2: That, I am fine.

00:41:33
Speaker 1: Like I said, that's that's part of the reason why I put him at RB two and have him as a rock solid arm. But I think I have him in like the RB sixteen or so range. That's part of the reason why is because I don't know if that competition in the backfield is strong enough. You know, if there was a prospect back there that I loved that I was really really into.

00:41:50
Speaker 2: And look, there's a lot of Zach Evans.

00:41:51
Speaker 1: Truth there's maybe you're one too, but there's a lot of people who like Zach Evans, and under I get it.

00:41:55
Speaker 2: I totally get it. I just wasn't one that was really that on him. To me.

00:41:59
Speaker 1: If you like Zach Evans in particular, then you probably should be a little bit less bullish on a player like Kyroen because it's not like he entered the league as this stud prospect and it's not like he's shown up as a stud player. But to me, because the lack of competition, I can buy into Kyen a little bit more.

00:42:15
Speaker 3: I like Evans, but what we've seen so far that changes the game, right, the fact that Evans was so far down the depth chart and the fact that Kyen's doing what he's doing. The only thing that I've seen it I don't think it's going to happen. But the only thing that I've seen that would concern me, just even a tiny little bit about Kyroen is that the Rams could trade for Jonathan Taylor.

00:42:34
Speaker 2: That would be at this point.

00:42:35
Speaker 3: Right, like that's the only thing now that could like bump him out of the way. There's no other back that's coming in to take his job.

00:42:41
Speaker 1: They were rumored right before they were they were look I mean, for what it's worth.

00:42:46
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a reporter that's just reporting it.

00:42:48
Speaker 1: It's not like Sean McVay is coming out and saying like, yeah, we we were trying to get Jonathan Taylor. But yeah, I mean they were at least attached to that, and that was one of those moves where everyen's like, of course the Rams are looking like no one thought the Rams were going to be competitive, and then of course they were going after a running back when they have so many other holes to fill. Speaking of running backs, Jerome Ford, we now have him as seemingly the one a in this backfield with Nick Chubb out, what do you think about Jerome Ford? Were you, you know, on team or in leagues where he was out there? Were you aggressive on the waiver wire?

00:43:19
Speaker 2: Do you think you could be a league winning type player.

00:43:22
Speaker 3: It's so funny because normally I'm like the most aggressive early in the season. Normally, after the first few weeks, I've just blown all my budget, and yet this year I held back a little bit so with Jerome Ford. As everyone was screaming, you know, one hundred percent bid on him, I put him down as a fifty percent bid just because I wasn't sure what moves they were going to make and who else they could potentially bring in there. And then the other thing that I think is so important here and I think we're gonna find out more about this when people are losing their minds on Twitter X about it probably on you know, Sunday or early next week. Is the matchups that he has coming up? Right, He's got Yes, He's got the Titans this week, and the Titans are shutting down everybody. They just ruined the waiver wire dreams of Josh Kelly last week, so they might do it again here. Then he has the Ravens the week after, then a bye, then the forty nine ers. So you have a month where it's like very very tough matchups on top of the fact that Kareem Hunt's joining. And I'm not worried about cream Hunt in terms of like taking over the job. I don't think Kareem hunts that player anymore. You look back to last season, I don't think Kareem Hunt looked particularly great last year. And then what they did right in the offseason they chose Ford over Hunt, and then the whole thing about like they made him try out that like that was just come on, guys, like you're going to bring them back, like that's so that's so rude to make them try out and all that. But that to me says that they're going to roll with Ford here and it's going to be kind of like the Alexander Madison situation, where he's gonna get his shot and if he can't handle it, then it probably will turn into more of a fifty to fifty committee or something like that. And I worry that because of these matchups, he's not going to produce very well. And so he's someone that I think two weeks from now, as they're going into their bye and after he's probably had two like average to below average games, he's going to be a by low. I'm telling you right now, I'm gonna be talking about it on my show. I'm going to say, go out and buy Jerome Ford before thereby, and the manager that has him is going to be worried that he hasn't produced. And then the guy's gonna be going on his bye week and they're not gonna able to use him, and you're probably gonna be able to get him cheap. And then maybe after that, after that forty nine ers matchup, particularly then he could potentially blow up or explode for Fantasy. And at that point I'm looking at him as an RB two. I'm not really going crazy on him at but a top twenty guy at that point, even with Hunt around, because i think Hunt is just going to be that kind of complimentary piece, and we saw it. I mean, it's a much different situation. We're talking about Kareem Hunt Nick Chubb talent wise. But I still just don't think the Kareem Hunt is a starting running back in the NFL anymore. So I'm not too worried about him taking over the job there. I think Ford is going to have his day, but I think it's not gonna come maybe for like a month.

00:45:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, I said the exact act same thing on My Mailbag episode. You look at that schedule, it's it's scary, you know, and you have to in these situations. My fear is how the coaching staff responds. You look at Minnesota, they responded in a way where they said, we're gonna trade for cam Akers, and you know, if they do struggle a little bit running the ball, and they they point to that and they use Jerome Ford as like a scapegoat. They use this injury as sort of the to Nick Chubb as sort of the reason why. Without giving all of that context, then you can see a path where this does not go in the right direction. But I think that we're both in I mean, we're both seeing this exactly the same way where I believe Jerome Ford's the most talented running back in that backfield with Kareem Hunt. You know, entering the picture, I didn't mind Pierre Strong either as a prospect necessarily, but you know, he's not a player that's gonna be able to handle a decent workload.

00:46:48
Speaker 2: Jerome Ford. You know, it's kind of.

00:46:50
Speaker 1: In that like ty Chandler mold where he's got that explosion and he's got that ability to break off big We saw that on Monday night against Pittsburgh or was that Sunday night against It was Monday night, right, it.

00:47:02
Speaker 3: Was Monday, the two games the same night. That's what's messing up.

00:47:05
Speaker 2: That's what that's what's messing me up. Yeah, that is what's messing me up.

00:47:08
Speaker 1: But we saw his big playability in that game where he goes the one side of the field and he just he just runs the complete opposite side, beats defenders, runs out of gas a little bit right at the inch yard line. But he does have that big playability and if he can get one of those, if we get one of those against Tennessee this weekend, then I think that could really, really salvage this concern that we have of him maybe not performing, and then the Browns coaching staff saying, yeah, we're gonna we're gonna divv this up a little bit more, or we're gonna do something crazy and stupid and trade for a running back, or do something insane to improve that position.

00:47:44
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why I really.

00:47:46
Speaker 1: Like doing the show is because I have the fifteen Transactions episode that I do earlier in the week where I'm giving these recommendations and I'm not talking to other analysts because I'm just trying to get content out the door, and I love to get analyst reactions then to some of those transactions. One of them this week was with Jordan Love, and I had Jordan Love as a cell. You know, there's a lot of regression related stuff going on with him, and some of the pushback that I've gotten since that are people saying, well, he's doing this with rookies, He's doing this with you know, Jayden Reed, Dantavian Wicks, you know, no Aaron Jones, no Christian Watson. How could it possibly get that much worse? Do you think I'm stupid for saying that Jordan Love is a Cell.

00:48:27
Speaker 3: No, I think you're bringing me on the show just to talk about how great you are and how this is definitely the right take and this is one hundred percent accurate. No, I mean, you look at it. I think this one's pretty obvious. Like he's certainly not going to continue to produce the way he's been producing. I haven't seen anything from him. I think it's been better than you know, certainly what we saw in years past and those small glimpses that we got. I think he's come a long way. And now he's a guy that he's out there, he's playing within himself and he can execute that system in Green Bay and he's doing a pretty good job of that. So kudos to him for that, and the fact that he's doing it with out Christian Watson and these younger guys. And also that's so fun, like that they just have all these young players and they're gonna like, let's grow together. It's kind of great. I'm really excited to follow that. But then when you look what he's done, right, like he's twenty eighth in pass attempts and he's tied for first in touchdowns, like that kind of thing's just never going to continue, Like, there's just no possible way. So he's going to come back to earth. I don't even see him being like a top ten fantasy quarterback. I think he's going to settle in more as like a high end QB two and a guy that in that system with all those weapons, when everybody's healthy, he'll be able to produce some good games. But he's also going to get a big test here. He's going against the Saints defense this week, so I'm kind of interested to see what happens in that game because I think that's definitely the spot where he could come back to Earth. But then I think he has a couple of good matchups after this, So yeah, it wouldn't shock me if he does continue to produce. But certainly somebody that I think people should be selling high on. If there's anybody in your league that's willing to buy on Jordan Love, I would sell on him for sure, because there's there's no chance that he's going to continue. He's like the quarterback two right now.

00:50:04
Speaker 2: Let me ask you this.

00:50:04
Speaker 1: I put a poll out there on X on Twitter, whatever, asking people who they like more rest of season and fantasy, and the two options were Jordan Love and Justin Fields, and Jordan Love won that poll fifty eight to forty two. Wow, So where do you Yeah, that was kind of my reaction. I would still go to yeah, yeah, right, like like that's where I think a lot of people are with with Love is that he's been fine from a fantasy perspective and they see that his weapons are gone. But here's here's a stat that I threw up on my on the Late Round Fantasy football Instagram this week. Jordan Love has thrown a touchdown on every sixty six passing yards to start the year, and yards correlate the touchdowns. I mean, this is a way to spot regression pretty easily. Matthew Stafford has thrown a touchdown for every six hundred and forty.

00:50:53
Speaker 2: One passing yards.

00:50:54
Speaker 1: Okay, the league average this year is a passing touchdown on every one hundred and seventy three pass Yeah. So we're seeing Jordan Love regardless of like, he can get better as a player. And this is where regression and statistics are are sometimes hard to sort of talk about and to explain. But Jordan Love can get better as a player and even get better statistically from like a yards per temp standpoint, et cetera. He can get better there with these improved weapons when Aaron Jones and Christian Watson hopefully they get healthy. Hopefully Christian Watson gets healthy eventually. You know, if and when they're healthy, he can get better as a player and still have worse numbers. And that's exactly what I think we're gonna see with Love moving forward. I agree, I think he's sort of like a mid QB two moving forward. You know, this week's gonna be tough. But as you noted, and this was the case entering the season. You know, Rich Reebar from Sharp Football Analysis mentioned this on a Late Run podcast when he hopped on but the Packers passing schedule entering the year was one of the easiest in the league. And I think that we're seeing that sort of come to play, you know, with their upcoming schedule and stuff.

00:51:59
Speaker 2: So I had in Love as a cell.

00:52:01
Speaker 1: Do you have any other screaming Cell candidates right now across the league?

00:52:06
Speaker 3: I mean James Connor probably, Like once again, I don't know what you're gonna be able to get for him, because he kind of is one of those guys that like has that name and that people kind of have that negative perception about him a little bit on top of you know, just what we're looking at with the Cardinals this year, but they've overperformed. I mean, Connor himself has probably overperformed, and he's been good, like even when they've had backup quarterbacks in there. He continues to produce on the volume that he gets. But then you look at what's coming up for him, and not to just continuously go back to matchups, but early in the season, I think this factors in a lot to provide like context to what we're seeing. And he gets the Cowboys and the forty nine ers the next two weeks, so a little bit worried that the numbers aren't going to be as good as they've been so far. He's been the RB thirteen and half PPR through two weeks, probably not going to be that during those matchups. So if you can get out on him and get any sort of like you know, RB two in return, I would probably be doing that. And then I had Dwayne McFarland of Fantasy Life. He was on my show this week and we both kind of said the same thing about Garrett Wilson that we love him to death. We love him so much, and yet we've gotten so lucky with the production that he's had through these two weeks with Zach Wilson. That's not going to continue. That we saw what happened when he was playing with Wilson last year. There really hasn't been any indication really that Wilson has improved that much this season that things are going to change. There's some tough matchups still on the way. It wasn't just last week with the Cowboys. It's gonna be the Patriots this week. And right now, Garrett Wilson is kind of surviving on these incredible plays and these touchdowns that he's had the first two weeks. It's not going to continue. I mean, right now, I think he's a top twenty receiver in Fantasy points per game. I would view him more as like a wide receiver three rest of the year, and I think if you can get out on him for a wide receiver two price. As sad as that is, I mean, when I put out my rest of season rankings yesterday, JJ, it just hurts to my core having to put him as low as I have to put him in there. But that's what we're looking at right now, you got to adapt to the situation. We've kept saying so right now, Wilson is somebody that I think you have to try to sell as quick as you possibly can because the bottom is going to get even lower on this in the coming weeks.

00:54:09
Speaker 1: What about on the flip side, a couple of guys that you might want to buy right now.

00:54:14
Speaker 3: I'm going to say two guys from the same team, actually, and I did this on my show this week, and I'm I'm gonna double up. I'm gonna mention them again here. But Jonathan Taylor to me like he's not going to come back for a couple of weeks. But I think this is the time when like, no one's really talking about him and you got a couple of weeks to go. The manager that has him, they're probably not doing great. I'm guessing based on where they took him, they could be struggling. Maybe they got lucky and they got some other players, but if they're zero and two right now, they definitely need some help. They're going to be worried you try to get in there and make a bid for him, and we don't know what's going to happen, right We don't know if he's going to come back to the Colts after week four, is he going to get traded. I still think a trade is the most likely scenario there, and I think when that happens, good luck getting him, because he's going to go to a team where people are probably gonna be very excited about him. But I think he's somebody that you should be trying to make that offer for at the moment because this is probably the time when you're going to get that discount. And as we get closer to there'll be more headlines and everything and people start to get a little more excited about him, and you're taking a risk. You have to understand that that he might not come back right away, he might sit out longer, like all of those things are built in there. But I think it's worthy of the risk because if he comes back and he's in a good situation, whether that's the Colts or somewhere else, we know what he can do. Right he could be a top ten, maybe even a top five guy. So I think he's somebody go after. And then I think Anthony Richardson is the other one, and he's probably not going to play this week. I don't know if that's official yet or not, but probably not going to play because it's in concussion protocol. And yet what we've seen from him so far, he's both looked the part like he looks fantastic. He looks so comfortable out there. Credit to the coaching staff there for having him ready to go. And also he's producing. Like in week one he got it done. He was the QB four on the week, and then last week he was crushing it. He was on his way to having like a thirty or forty point fan game.

00:56:00
Speaker 2: I know, don't don't remind me, I know you that was going to.

00:56:03
Speaker 3: Be like the coming out party for him, and then it gets stopped by the fact that you know, he falls awkwardly after that second rushing touchdown and doesn't finish the game, and then you know, now he potentially is going to be out for this week probably, So I think this is the only opportunity you are going to get to try to buy him. And he's somebody that, in my mind everything we've seen, he can be a top five, top six fantasy quarterback the rest of the season, and you're gonna be able to get him right now when maybe his manager doesn't realize and maybe his manager has another option and they feel pretty good about that option, and they're not going to have him this week, so they might be willing to move him.

00:56:38
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.

00:56:39
Speaker 3: I think this is the chance because I think that value is going to skyrocket once he's back out there, and this is a guy that could potentially help you win your league based on what his value is right now and what he could produce the rest of the way.

00:56:50
Speaker 2: I love that call. I love that call.

00:56:51
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson just looks like he could be a league winner at that position, you know, as much as you can be one, you know, at the quarterback position. Last question I want to ask you. You know, we build projections. We look at this stuff usually from sort of a top down approach. You know, if the offense is looking good, then that means the players within that offense are looking good. And then the flip side, right, if an offense is struggling, then the players in that offense are also going to struggle. You have Cincinnati, for instance, who has not been performing well for a lot of reasons, and that has impacted literally everyone on that team. So which offense maybe at Cincinnati, but which offense has gotten off to a slow start. Do you think is going to finally turn things around and could really be, you know, a place where people could could extract some value in fantasy football.

00:57:37
Speaker 3: I think the Bengals could definitely be that team. I mean, as soon as Joe Burrow gets healthy. But the question is is he going to get healthy? Are they going to let him sit for a few weeks and get healthy? And I go back to like Jamar Chase in the summer saying like that he wanted Burrow to sit at the beginning of the season so that when he does come back that he was one hundred percent. And man, that looks like that was a pretty smart call and they didn't do it. I've heard Stefanya Bell talk about this too from ESPN, where she said that she's always angry about the fact that these teams rush to have these guys ready for week one when week one isn't what matters. And Burrow is the perfect example of Man, if they'd only held him out maybe one more week or a couple more weeks and let him get totally right, because as in that first game, whether it was because he aggravated it or not, he just didn't look like he was himself, and I think you could go into the mechanics of it and how much that injury could have been impacting him. On top of the fact that it was just a mon soon. It was raining quite a bit in that game, and that was impacting it too. And I'm not just saying this to play up to you, but I will go back because the Bengals are probably too easy. You mentioned them there, I will go back to the Steelers. I think things are going to get a lot better for the Steelers, and I think it's because those matchups in the first two weeks were just so difficult and people aren't acknowledging that enough. And I like some of the things we've seen from him. I mean, George Pickens looks like he's taken a step forward.

00:58:53
Speaker 2: That's great.

00:58:54
Speaker 3: But in better matchups, we're gonna see Kenny Pickett be able to do a little bit more. And sure he's not taken a massive leaf. You know what we saw in the summer in the preseason, it made it seem like maybe there could be a little more there in a potential breakout, but that hasn't arrived, and I don't know that it's gonna arrive, but he's gonna be able to do enough to support the weapons on that offense. Pat Fryarmouth he had a chest injury in Week one and he's potentially playing through that, And maybe he's had to not one hundredercent sure, because I didn't go back and look at this specifically yet, but maybe he's been used as a blocker a little bit more because of all the pass rush that's been coming their way the last two weeks. But either way, he has not really been involved as a receiver. I would have to think that at some point that's gonna change. Deontay Johnson if he got dropped in your league, I've seen some leagues where that's happened. You go out, you get him for sure, because when he is healthy, when he comes back from my R, he's gonna be good. And then that backfield. As much as everybody wants to dog Nagie Harris and say that, you know, Jalen Warren is better talent wise explosive, but yeah, for sure, I think Jalen Warren probably is the better option there. But when the matchups get better and they're going to be in the next couple weeks here. Naw, she's gonna find the end zone. Now he's gonna have some stats. So I think those guys are both worth starting. I mean Nase as a fringe low end RB two, probably more of a high end RB three, and then Warren as a flex. But let's see that Pittsburgh offense and some better matchups before we completely put them to rest.

01:00:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, until you know this weekend if they if they do put up a goose.

01:00:17
Speaker 1: Against Vegas, then here you go. Then we'll be will be a little concerned. But I agree. Justin thanks so much for hopping on. Why don't you let everyone know where they can can find you.

01:00:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, all my content's available for free on the Score app. You can go download the Score but it's not just for my content, I mean the box scores. All the other content that's on there is fantastic. I think it's the best sports app in the industry. I've been using it long before I worked at The Score too, so that tells you all you need to know about about it. And then the Score Fantasy Football podcast doing five episodes a week right now, have a guest on every week and have some really big names in the industry. Including yourself, which you've always come on for I think going back to the first year we did it like six years ago, so I appreciate that. And yeah, I'm having a ton of fun with the podcast, and yeah, I think people should definitely give it a listen. We're trying to cover everything we possibly can early in the season too, to try to catch up on all this stuff, like the things that we talked about today. We're trying to figure out that puzzle right now so that we have a better shot at doing well later in the year for sure.

01:01:19
Speaker 1: For sure, I'm on Twitter at LEROUNDQB. All my stuff over on lateround dot com as usual, check out the Patreon make sure you're subscribed to this show the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast feed on behalf of Me and Justin.

01:01:31
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.