570: Week 8 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode five hundred and seventy of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I had a pretty bad Week seven all around. My fantasy teams didn't do that well during all those bye weeks, and this sleeper show wasn't very good either. Bad weeks happen in this game, and doing this show after a bad week, it's always harder to be honest. But I was completely wrong in thinking the Bear's passing attack had any sort of chance going up against Tampa Bay. I couldn't have been more wrong. I also couldn't have been more wrong about Ramandre Stevenson because he was a healthy scratch. I do think the process was totally right with him last week, though, given what we saw from the other running backs in that Patriots backfield. I also gave some bad vice with the players to sit section of this podcast. I shouted out four guys and only one of them really gave you a bad game. That was Tyler Lockett. There were at least a couple of big hits. Tua was my favorite streamer last week. He came through. One of my favorite tight end streamers with c Joe Zama. He came through. And then my favorite defensive streamer last week was the Giants, and they came through. But I expect better each week, So let's try to get back on track here in Week eight. Before we get into this week's sleepers, I wanted to let you know that with the NFL season in full swing, Fandel and Guinness have teamed up to make your Sunday night that much better, introducing the Guinness Halloween Challenge, daily fantasy contest and Last Touchdown Bonus. Here's how it works. Make your best five man roster for this Sunday's matchup between the Cowboys and the Vikings while staying under the salary cap, and compete for your share of twenty thousand dollars in cash prizes. Now, if that's not enough, any lineup that rosters the player in the MVP slot who scores the final touchdown of the game will win a share of five thousand dollars in bonus cap Sunday Night will be here before you know it, so head to fandle dot com slash Guinness Halloween to enter today. Must be twenty one years older. To enter, please drink responsibly. Guinness Draft Stout imported by Diazo Beer Company USA, New York, New York. For more details was at fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply for those of you who are new to this show. The first tier represents players who are rostered in about twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues you could consider starting. Let's start with some quarterback streamers. I'll be honest, I really wanted to call out Sam Darnold here because the matchup against Atlanta is just so good, but he's just been so bad. I can't recommend him because of that. But I will recommend Daniel Jones, who was featured in this week's fifteen Transaction show. Jones has rushed for twenty seven or more yards and five of seven games played this year, and in one of those games where he didn't, he got knocked out against the Cowboys. That essentially brings three quarters of a passing touchdown worth of points to the table each week. Now he gets a Chiefs team that's the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks when looking at adjusted points allowed. The Giants won't be able to just sit back and run the football, and more passing volume could invite more scrambles for Daniel Jones, so I like him as a streamer this week. I also like Carson Wentz. He's been playing good ball over the last month and he's averaged almost twenty Fantasy points per game over his last three Tennessee's coming off a strong defensive performance against the Chiefs, but the secondary is still beatable. We shouldn't let that one game overshadow a larger sample. The Titans are ninth and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks, and this game has a decent over under for this slate, so Wentz should work this week. Moving on from quarterbacks, I guess that we should talk about Kenneth Gainwell. We still don't know about Miles Sanders' status for this week and at the time of this recording, but if he doesn't go, we should expect Gainbell to see more work on the ground than usual. He was out attempted by Boston Scott this past week, but he should be in line for a pretty strong target chair. Philadelphia has a twenty six percent running back target chair this year, when the league average is closer to nineteen percent, and Detroit's also an average team when looking at adjusted target share allowed to the running back position, so no Miles Sanders could increase that target share. Gainwell should just get a boost in playing time, and he's still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of leagues at the time of this recording in PPR formats. Especially as long as Sanders is out, gain Moll should at least be flexworthy. So Cole Beasley is rostered in just a little over fifty percent of leagues over on Yahoo. But I want to talk about him today because he's sort of underwhelmed for most of the season after having such a good twenty twenty. The last time we saw the Bills, he had a twenty percent target shair that was against Tennessee and he came through with a wide receiver one performance. In his two games prior to that, he was essentially worthless in fantasy football. There's just been a lot of volatility there. But here's why you should like him this week. Number one Dawson Knox is injured, that could open up things more for the wide receivers on that team, especially in the red zone. Number two. Miami's been an advantageous matchup for slow players this year. They rank six the percentage of targets to go to that area of the field, and only the Titans have allowed more slot yards. So I'm kind of into Beasley this week in a game where the Bills should score some points. The last guy in this year that I want to bring up is Marquez Callaway. The Saints get the Bucks this week, and as I talk about almost every week, the Bucks face a lot of pass attempts, not just because teams have to keep up pace with the Tampa Bay offense, but because the Bucks can stop the run well, so teams are forced to pass. On the season, Tampa Bay has faced the highest pass rate allowed. Meanwhile New Orleans has been dead last in pass rate. New Orleans is probably gonna have to throw more than they typically do, and Callaway would benefit. He's seen about a twenty percent target share for New Orleans this year, and he' sad a nineteen percent share in all but two games, And again that's technically on pretty limited volume, so that target share is typically not yielding a lot of targets, but in this game, where they should throw more, that could bring more targets. The next year consists of players rostered and ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues. And I've got one more quarterback for you, Teddy Bridgewater. Yes, Teddy Bridgewater. He gets Washington this week and the football team is the most advantageous matchup for quarterbacks according to my adjusted points allowed method. Bridgewater is also getting Jerry Judy back that could be a big boost for the team's passing attack, so he makes sense, though I'd rather play Danny Dimes or Carson Wentz. This past week, samaj p Ryan got some garbage time production. He's not splitting a backfield with Joe Mixon fifty to fifty like it might appear. He had just three carries well into the fourth quarter in that game against the Ravens last week, and then at the end of the fourth quarter he grinded out the game with eight more. Here's the thing, though, pe RAN's been running plenty of routes this year for Cincinnati, so he's got that going for him, and the Bengals get the Jets this week as Big ten and a half point favorites according to Fandals Sportsbook. Not only could garbage time happen again, but New York is still first in the league in adjusted target share allowed to running backs, so p RAN's not a terrible option. Darius Slayton was another player that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, and he should work this week. I stress the word should because at the time of this recording, we don't know what's gonna happen with the pass catchers for the Giants. If we have a similar situation as last week, then Slayton should be in your lineup. He saw twenty eight percent of New York's targets and now he'll likely be in a game where the Giants have a pass heavier script because they're facing Kansas City. So watch that injury report throughout this week because Slayton might be a very decent play. The last player I want to shout out in this tier is probably my favorite tight end streamer this week, and that's Tyler Conklin. Conklin doesn't have the highest target share in the world, but it's okay enough for the position at thirteen percent. He's also thirteenth in the league in tight end routes run despite the Vikings already having their buy and that's because Minnesota is averaging the seventh most team targets per game this year. Now they get Dallas in a game with a high over under, a game that could end up shooting out, and Dallas is twelfth and adjusted points allowed to tight ends. So I think Conklin is the bestdditional tight end streamer this week. I've got three deep sleepers for you in this last year, which consists of players rostered in zero percent to nine percent of leagues. Brandon Bolden is one of them. This is definitely more of a low ceiling play for the most part, and who knows what happens with the Patriots backfield. If Ramandre Stevenson is active this weekend, I would be lower on Brandon Bolden if he's not, though Bolden could work as a flex. He ran the most routes for the Patriots once again in Week seven at running back and he finished the day with a seventeen and a half percent target share. Now, the Patriots are facing the Chargers as pretty big underdogs, so in a negative games script or a possible negative game script, New England would hypothetically opt to go to Brandon Bolden. We've now seen two full games from Jacksonville since DJ Shark was injured against Cincinnati. In those games, Marvin Jones has run the most routes at wide receiver for Jacksonville. Laviscus Chanults in second, but Jamal Agnew is right behind Laviska Chanault. He's run just one fewer route and during these two weeks, Agnew is fourteen targets compared to jones Is fifteen and Chennault's thirteen. The majority of Agnew's playing time is coming from the slot. He's played seventy eight percent of his snaps from there, and this week he gets a top half matchup against the Seahawks, a team that ranked seventh in slot yards allowed this year. The last player in this tier is a deep tight end streamer, and that's Pat Fryarmuth. In Pittsburgh's last game played, which was back in Week six, Friarmuth ran more routes than teammate Eric Ebron, and he also saw five more targets than Ebron. Friarmuth actually had an eighteen percent target share in that game and keep in mind that was the first full game without Juju Smith Schuster. He's a talented red zone threat for Pittsburgh, so if you're a little bit desperate, it's not a bad idea to throw him in your lineup and see if he can find the end zone. This player's the sit section hasn't been great the last couple of weeks. It was awesome the first five weeks in the season, so I guess regression was inevitable, but it feels like this is kind of like an over correction. Regardless, Let's talk about some players who are rostered in at least seventy five percent of Yahoo leagues who you could consider benching this week. I don't think Aaron Rodgers should be a lock for your lineup. Given the information I have right now, I would probably play him over the streamers this week. But I think he's right there in that tier with Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz. Like Kirk Cousins, is someone who I would not hesitate at all to play over Aaron Rodgers this week. And obviously it has to do with the COVID situation with Rogers receivers, but not only that. Arizona's actually been the fourth best team at preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks when looking at justin fantasy points allowed to the position. So some of you may have better options this week at running back. I know it's a revenge game, but I don't know how you can confidently play Mike Davis after his usage in Week seven. Across the first four weeks this season, Davis was averaging a fifty six point four percent running back rush share per game. That fell to forty six percent in Week five. Then the team had to buy and in this past week it was just twenty one percent and he didn't see a target in we seven either. Maybe this is just a random blip, but I still wouldn't take a chance with him in my starting lineup against a team that ranks best in the league and adjusted points allowed to running backs. I talked about Corey davis Is insane touchdown share this year on the ten Trend Show, and considering they're starting Mike White this weekend, it doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that Corey Davis is going to be able to do much in terms of production. Cincinnati's not really a tough matchup or anything, but White is a huge unknown, and Davis has hit fifty or more receiving yards in just two games this year. If he doesn't find the end zone, which we just shouldn't expect, then he'll be pretty tough to trust. Speaking of finding the end zone, Jacobe Meyers still hasn't scored in the NFL, and I wouldn't expect that to change in Week eight, or maybe we should expect it because it's the NFL. But he's facing the Chargers. LA has been the best team against wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed this season. They've allowed zero top twenty wide receiver performances even though they've faced Dallas's wide receivers, Baltimore's wide receivers, Kansas City's wide receivers Vegas Klee, and Washington. So as a result, Myers is a little bit scary of an option this week. And then lastly, let's just have the OBJ conversation. Things seem to be trending the right direction for Baker Mayfield. That's good, but OBJ has been playing through injuries and it's been brutal. I don't know how you can view him as anything more than a wide receiver four or a wide receiver five. Right now period. As for the streaming defenses this week, they're actually a good number of them. I talked up Cincinnati earlier this week on the fifteen Transaction Show. They're the number one defense, but you could look at Philadelphia against Detroit, LA against New England, or Seattle against Jacksonville. Those defenses, their percent roster numbers have gone up since the beginning of the week, but I think each of them should work here in week eight. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone really appreciate it. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly mail Bag show. Mister Mister