1003: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

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Eligibilia strictions apply. Void were prohibited one per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars headline contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entrpre required reward expires in thirty days. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL dash Best dash Ball sponsored by DK Analyzing schedule. This is always a controversial topic in fantasy football. On one hand, no one's played a game yet, we don't know exactly how good or bad certain matchups are, or I should say we're not very confident in knowing. But I don't see the exercise of forecasting hard and easy schedules as any different than forecasting offensive line player pass rates or any other thing that we're forecasting in fantasy football. And doing this each year, this exact exercise has been really, really helpful. Anyone who's listened to this episode in the past can probably attest to that. Just look at last year as an example. I brought up Washington's easier start to the season across their first four games, and who knows if that helped the passing attack do what they did last year. They got off on the right foot, regardless of they faced the Bucks, the Giants, the Bengals, and the Cardinals to kick off their season. Jaden Daniels averaged twenty three point four points per game during that stretch. He was two points per game lower throughout the rest of the season, and those were the first four games of his entire NFL career. Or there's the Chargers I talked up their first two games of the season because they faced the Raiders and the Panthers last year, and I mentioned that backfield in particular, and as we know JK. Dobbins got off to a really hot start last year. Now, the one miss from last year was probably the Green Bay passing attack, and now they had a really soft schedule through about Week nine, though I guess Jordan Love did technically average more points per game during that split than out of it last year, and Love was banged up too. Regardless, I would imagine listeners have gotten something from this show in the past, because I know it's been helpful for me in particular, and I'm typically creating content that interests me as a fantasy player as well, just like you, I'm trying to win some leagues. To me, though, getting players who have good early season schedules can help your team get off to a hot start, and it can help your team simply increase in value. There's also nothing worse than drafting a starter who underperforms to start the season. Even if there's a schedule based reason for that, it's not easy to fully grasp that as it's happening. So today we're gonna look at some early season schedules for fantasy assets to see if we should give them a very slight boost in our rankings or maybe a little bit of a downgrade. This is a tiebreaker more than anything else for these guys, but it's still something to keep in mind for all the reasons I just talked through. Now, I'm gonna split today's episode up into two groups, rushing attacks and passing attacks. We'll go through all of the rushing attacks who make it off to bad and good starts, and then we'll move to passing games. And of course I try to approach this mathematically and logically, or as much as I could. A lot of times people do this analysis by looking at last season's numbers. I don't find that to be as useful. Instead, I'm using a few sources projected win totals for each team, Sharp Football's Front seven rankings, which obviously just aren't focused on run stopping, but they are helpful, and then PFF secondary rankings. Those all help me to find some good and bad schedules for these fantasy assets. All right, we good to go. Let's do this. One player I've mostly faded this offseason is Brian Robinson. He's not much of a pass catcher. I don't see him as a special player, and for him to really give you a ceiling in a PPR setting, he's likely going to have to score a lot of touchdowns, and that's definitely possible in this offense. It's just not something I want to bank on, especially when there are other players in that range that I just like more, mostly at the other positions. Actually, my running back ranking of Robinson isn't that far off of the market, but I do worry about my lack of exposure given the Commander's early season schedule. That's not so much a best ball take, but it is a season long one a managed League one. Washington opens up their season against the Giants, Packers, Raiders, and then the Falcons. The Giants have a strong front seven, but they also have a low win total and they're six and a half point underdogs in Washington in a week one game. Then it's the Packers and their bottom ten front seven according to sharp Football. Then it's a Raiders team that has a five and a half win total, so the potential for another positive game script for Washington, and then it's a beatable Falcons team that ranks dead last in the front seven rankings, and honestly, they won't face a top half team in terms of front seven rankings until Week seven. But I think you have to feel a little bit better about using Robinson to kick off the year. None of those first four matchups are even remotely scary, so don't be surprised if Robinson's to sell candidate for me towards the end of September. Now, another player that I'm not that into at cost is Chuba Hubbard. And just like Brian Robinson and the Commanders, the Panthers have a nice start to their schedule too, which, of course, of course that's the case. I can't wait to hear it from people. After the first month of the season. Carolina's opening schedule is arguably the best for any running backs in the league. It's Jacksonville, Arizona, Atlanta, and then New England, four teams with bottom ten front sevens according to Sharp Football, and they're all teams who aren't like elite or at least we're not projecting them to be elite teams, which means Hubbard could see a lot of touches if but a negative game script never hits so I'm actually anticipating Chewba Hubbard to have a really strong start to the season. My concern is more in the receiving side for him. But if the Panthers are in these good scripts, then there won't be that much of an issue to kick off the year. Now, there's also veteran James Connor who get off to a really hot start. The Cardinals get the Saints and the Panthers in weeks one and two. Those are two teams that rank in the bottom five and front seven rankings, and there are two teams where at least a neutral games trip as possible against the Cardinals. New Orleans hasn't even named their quarterback starter yet, and that Week two game against the Panthers is in Arizona. So if you want more of like a middle round anchor at running back to get off to a hot start and then you just kind of want to wait for the inevitable injuries to occur to build out your running back room, James Connor actually makes a lot of sense. Now, I will say, on the flip side, there aren't many obvious teams to call out. If I'm being totally honest, I think the Bears start to the seasons. Maybe a little bit iffy for running backs and same with the Jets, but I'm not super concerned on the negative side with the rushing attacks. So let's focus our attention now to the passing side. There's been some positive camp buzz surrounding Drake May and that Patriots passing attack, and I think they could get off to a hot start. New England faces Vegas, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Carolina across their first four games. According to PFF secondary rankings, those team secondaries are thirty second, twenty ninth, sixteenth, and thirtieth entering the season. When looking only at the first four weeks through this Lens, New England's tied for the best schedule for any team in football. And the team that they're tied with is another one that we should shout out here, and that's Michael Pennix and the Falcons. Atlanta actually gets a sweet schedule basically through week eight this year. Here's where their opponent's rank through that time in secondary rankings. Twenty second, twenty seventh, thirtieth, twenty eighth, and then there's a bye week and then they get the fourteenth, twenty third, and twenty ninth ranked secondaries. The Falcons won't see a tough matchup on paper until Week nine when they face the Patriots. Now, I'm not as high on Michael Pennix as the other sophomore quarterbacks, but he's a sneaky streamer to start the season, and with Darnell Mooney currently banged up, Drake London could go absolutely nuts to start the year two, and at the very least with Michael Pennix, he could be a decent Week one streamer. Because Atlanta faces Tampa Bay, that game has a forty eight and a half point total. Now, I called out James Connor for his rushing matchups across the first chunk of the season, but the Cardinals just have good matchups in general. New Orleans, Carolinas, San Francisco. They each ranked twentieth or worse in secondary rankings. I think the fear with Kyler Murray is that there's not a ton of shootout potential in Week one. In two. Week one, especially, Carolina might surprise us offensively this year, but then in Week three we know the forty nine ers can put up points. So keep an eye on Kyler Murray just as you are with James Connor. Now, I'm slightly concerned about the Bears running backs for the first chunk of the season, but the passing attack might be in a good spot. Chicago opens their season against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Raiders, a bye week, and then Washington. There's some high powered offenses in there. The toughest secondary matchup on paper is Detroit, but the Bears could also play in catchup mode against them. That's a good Lions offense. But aside from that, four of their first five games are against the twenty seventh, thirty, first, thirty, second, and twenty eighth ranked secondaries, and they all have interesting shootout potential too. It just makes me a little bit more excited for Caleb Williams despite his struggles early on in training camp. Now, there weren't many rushing attacks to call out on the negative side, but I've got some passing attacks for you got two of them. One of them is Kansas City. Unfortunately, we're hoping that Patrick Mahomes pushes the ball downfield more this year, that the offense gets going again. But they're starting in the year with arguably three top ten match up in a bad way for the passing attack. They'll start with the Chargers, then the Eagles, then the Giants, and then the Ravens. That's not the easiest spot to be in with at least the Eagles and the Ravens coming in with really strong secondaries this year. You could very easily argue that the Chargers are in the top ten two So Kansas City's passing attack, I'm a little bit nervous to start the season. And then there's cam Ward and the Titans, who faced the Broncos to kick off his NFL career, so good luck with that. After Denver, Tennessee faces the Rams, Colts and Texans. The Texans secondary is really strong, like top five strong, and the other two matchups they're not necessarily great on paper either, although they are more middle of the road. But it's hard to see cam mood as a streaming choice at the end of your season long drafts this year given that matchup against Denver and things aren't even great during the first month of the season. And that does unfortunately extend to Calvin Ridley too, someone that I've been drafting a good bit this year in Best Ball. Just looking at the schedule, I think we're going to see more of a second half surge for this Tennessee Titans passing attack, which also makes sense because they're being led by a rookie quarterback. So those are the two passing attacks that I'm most concerned about. Another two honorable mentions would probably be Miami in Detroit. It's just not quite as obvious as Kansas City and Tennessee, at least in my eyes. So to recap for the rushing attacks, we got Brian Robinson, the Commanders, Truba Hubbard and the Panthers, James Connor and the Cardinals all looking good to start the year, and we might want to be a little bit fearful for the Bears and the Jets. On the passing front, favorable matchups are there for the Patriots, Falcons, Cardinals and Bears, and then we should be a little bit more concerned about the Chiefs and the Titans. And then I know what all of you guys are thinking. Now, you want some defensive streamers. You want some defenses to pick up in the last round of your draft. So here's a very very quick rundown. The Commanders get the Giants in Week one. They're already big home favorites. The Rams get the Texans in Week one. In that week, offensive line for Houston, and then they get Tennessee and cam Ward a rookie in Week two. I think the Rams are probably the most attractive true dart throw defense in fantasy drafts this year. Now, Pittsburgh's gonna get drafted earlier, especially in home leagues, but they do get the Jets and the Seahawks in weeks one and two. Both of those teams have new quarterbacks, both could show some offensive struggles out of the gate. And then Denver's obviously gonna be drafted high because it's a great defense, but they do get Tennessee in Indianapolis to start the season, which are two offenses that we're probably gonna target this year at least the first half of the season. And that's also a low key reason as to why you could go after like a JK. Dobbins or RJ. Harvey as well. I could have shouted them out earlier with the running backs, and then the last defense, maybe you could get Arizona as sort of a risky candidate. They're gonna get the Saints in Week one. We don't even know who the quarterback is gonna be for New Orleans, and if they play well and you feel good about them, maybe they're a possibility in Week two against Carolina, But at least in Week one they're kind of an intriguing five and a half point road favorite against the Saints. Now, look, I know this episode wasn't as methodical, wasn't as mathematical as other episodes that I do, but I wanted to get you guys as much information about this as I could now because we're in late July and drafts are really gonna start ramping up, and this information should be helpful. At the very least, you can use as a tiebreaker. Like I said earlier, when you're between a couple of guys you don't know which one to pick, use these schedules as a tiebreaker. You want your team to get more valuable as soon as possible. And look, if you think this is all worthless, I feel you. We're all entitled to our own opinions. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks toll Ofy for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by striting for it pretty much anywhere podcast could be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at late round QB, I've got becoming a best ball bro hitting your feeds tomorrow, and then a mailbag episode later in the week. Talk to you guys then