596: 10 Trends for Week 15

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher Reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandleet number fire dot com. And this is episode five hundred and ninety six of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Fannel is offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users. Join Fandel Sportsbook today and make your first bet. If you lose, Fandel will give you a refund of up to one thousand dollars in site credit within seventy two hours. Your first bet after depositing will qualify. If you have multiple selections on one bet slip, it will be the first selection you made. Head over to the Fandel Sportsbook today and place your first bet. Must be twenty one years or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia. Maxon is one thousand dollars in site credit. Researchtions apply. See terms of Sportsbook dot Fandle dot com. Same game parlay available for multiple sports and all States on mobile slash web gambling problem called one hundred gambler. Visit fandle dot com, slash RG in Connecticut called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slized chat and Indiana one one hundred nine with it for confidential held Michigan one one hundred two seven zero seven one seven in Tennessee called the redline at one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in West Virginia visit one hundred gambler dot net, or in Arizona called one hundred next step protects next step to five three three four two. Deebo Samuel is having the weirdest fantasy football season that I've ever seen, and that's not hyperbole. Across the first nine games of the season, he had a target share per game average of thirty two point four percent. He was averaging twenty one point seven PPR points per game. Over his last three his target share per game is just nine point five percent, but he still scored sixteen, twenty one and thirteen PPR points. Because he's running the ball a lot, and he's running the ball extremely efficiently. He's averaging over eight yards per carry over his last three games, and he's found the en zone on then in each of his last four. If I'm being honest, I like the older version of Debo, the one across the first nine games. I like that one more than this new one. This feels a lot less sustainable than what he was doing before. It'll be really interesting to see how the forty nine ers operate with everyone healthy moving forward, because if Elijah Mitchell's back, we could see Samuel play a more traditional wide receiver role. That would then hurt both Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle, But we'll see how they deploy their personnel. The last time at Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver finished in the top twenty and weekly wide receiver scoring was Week six. That's because Trevor Lawrence has one touchdown pass since Week eight. On the season, the Jags have just three total top twenty wide receiver performances. That's tied with New Orleans and Cleveland for the worst in the league. On the flip side, the Rams are first in the league with twenty two of them and Tampa Bay's in second with eighteen. You can't trust a Jags player outside of maybe James Robinson right now, even in a great matchup this weekend. I mentioned this on The Sleeper Show last week, and I've been talking about Sony Michelle on this show over the last few weeks now, But I still think there's a non zero chance that he's the bell cow in that backfield, even when Darryl Henderson is healthy. He saw one hundred percent of the Rams running back rushes on Monday Night, and he's now rushed for one hundred and twenty one and seventy nine yards in back to back games. The Rams have also had good results in the win column. That can go a long way for coaches, even if it's rational. Now, I understand that Michelle is playing without Henderson, and Henderson was playing with Michelle this season, so we can't necessarily look at Michelle's last two games and see that he had a ninety two one hundred percent running back rush share and just say that's higher than what Henderson has basically seen all year because he wasn't playing with Henderson. But I also don't think it's nothing. Having back to back games of twenty rushes is not nothing, and he's done that with a success rate of over forty five percent. Which is really good. This trend is to say that we should be open minded about any outcome here with the Rams backfield. Hopefully we learn more about how they may divvy up the workload later this week. While DK Metcalf hasn't done that much at all since Russell Wilson's return, Tyler Lockett has. Over his last four games, he's averaged eighteen point eight PPR points per game, with a low of twelve point six points. He now has four games with twenty five or more PPR points. That's only been done this year by Cooper Cup, DeVante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. The weird thing is that his target share per game over this time is twenty two and a half percent. That's actually lower than DK Metcalf's. Maybe things really won't turn around for Metcalf this year, but I have a hard time believing that anything can happen across a small sample. But we should expect a least some regression to the mean here. I know I sound like a broken record, but it's just how this stuff works. The last four weeks have not been very good for Joe Mixon's receiving work. He's averaged a target chare per game of just six point three percent during this time, and he's seen four fewer targets than samaj p Ryn. The rushing touchdowns were really helping Mixin. He had scored nine touchdowns in six games prior to last week, but the looks through the air are definitely a concern as we move into the fantasy football playoffs. The Jets against running backs continues to be the best matchup in fantasy football when looking that justin fantasy points allowed, they're allowing ten points six more PPR fantasy points per game to team running backs versus their opponent's average. Meaning if a team was averaging fifteen points per game at running back and then they went and faced the Jets, we'd expect that team to score over twenty five fantasy points at the running back position, and that says a team, not an individual. The next defense versus position matchup that's worse than the league is Minnesota against wide receivers. When wide receivers faced the Vikings, the team wideouts are scoring eight more points in their season long average. For some perspective, if the complete opposite has happened against Buffalo this year, which I understand includes data with Tradevius White, But when teams have faced the Bills, they've lost eight points versus their season long average against Minnesota, they've gained eight points. That's just something I found interesting when digging into the adjusted Fantasy points allowed data this week. Josh Jacobs has silently put together a decent fantasy season. He's at least giving you some sort of floor each week. He scored ten or more PPR points in nine games this year. He's one of nine running backs to do that. With injuries in that backfield, He's also seeing more work through the air, which is what Jacobs has always needed. Over his last five games, he's averaged a target chair per game of eighteen point four percent. His lowest target share in a single contest over this time is ten and a half percent. That's awesome. The usage is there each week for Jacobs to have in RB one ceiling. You're never gonna bench Travis Kelcey and fantasy football. Let me get that out of the way. But over the last two weeks, Kelsey has had identical three catch for twenty seven yard stat lines. He scored just five point seven pp PERO points in both of those games, and he now has four games this year where he's scored in the single digits, and those four games are actually under the seven point mark. He's obviously not giving you close to the edge that he gave you in twenty twenty. Last year, Kelsey had one single digit performance. He finishes a top ten tight end in weekly scoring and ninety three percent of his games played. That number is under seventy percent this season. Again, you're not benching Kelsey, but he just hasn't been the same dominant fantasy force this season. Trend nine is that Ben Roethlisberger has now given us three top ten fantasy performances over his last four games. Seriously, as I noted last week on The Sleeper Show, he's thrown at least one touchdown pass in every game since Week two of twenty nineteen. That was a game that he was injured against the Seahawks. He then went on to miss the rest of the season. But Roethlisberger has hit nineteen fantasy points in three of his last four, and he gets a pretty decent matchup this week against Tennessee. He's not my favorite streamer this week, but he's at least in the streaming conversation. Let's end today's ten Trend show talking about Odell Beckham. Beckham now has double digit PPR points in each of his last three games, and in two of those games he's said at least a twenty three percent target. Chair. He's becoming someone that you have to put in your lineup given the offense that he's in. He's seen target totals of ten, to five, and seven over his last three. Now, to give you some perspectives, since the start of the twenty twenty season, Beckham played fourteen games for the Browns. He scored ten or more points in five of those games, so he's hit that mark in three consecutive games with the Rams, but he did it in five of his final fourteen with Cleveland. Something tells me it wasn't just an Odell Beckham problem for the Browns. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.